Datasets:
CK0607
/
manifold_contracts

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
 Community
1
p
string
id
string
pool
string
prob
string
slug
string
volume
string
dpmPool
string
question
string
realAnte
string
closeTime
string
creatorId
string
mechanism
string
startPool
string
totalBets
string
dailyScore
string
elasticity
string
isResolved
string
marketTier
string
resolution
string
visibility
string
createdTime
string
creatorName
string
description
string
outcomeType
string
probChanges
string
subsidyPool
string
totalShares
string
collectedFees
string
phantomShares
string
volume24Hours
string
resolutionTime
string
totalLiquidity
string
creatorUsername
string
lastUpdatedTime
string
popularityScore
string
creatorAvatarUrl
string
likedByUserCount
string
uniqueBettorCount
string
cfmmConversionTime
string
uniqueBettorCountDay
string
addAnswersMode
string
answers
string
bountyLeft
string
bountyTxns
string
closeEmailsSent
string
conversionScore
string
coverImageUrl
string
creatorCreatedTime
string
deleted
string
followerCount
string
freshnessScore
string
groupLinks
string
groupSlugs
string
importanceScore
string
initialProbability
string
isPolitics
string
isRanked
string
isSubsidized
string
lastBetTime
string
lastCommentTime
string
loverUserId1
string
loverUserId2
string
matchCreatorId
string
nonPredictive
string
resolutionProbability
string
resolutions
string
resolverId
string
shouldAnswersSumToOne
string
sort
string
totalBounty
string
unlistedById
string
username
string
viewCount
string
wasDpm
string
0.0867948537019499
will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.0867948537019499
will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600
15501.067200250913
{"NO": 12828, "YES": 2672.932799749088}
Will Bitcoin be worth more than $60,000 on Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET?
200
1641091928243
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 57.67679976384239, "YES": 42.32320023615761}
{"NO": 12828, "YES": 2673}
0
4.618320448203627
True
play
NO
public
1639779118231
SG
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 14907.490984615304, "YES": 4595.866109467829}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 80.62257748298549, "YES": 59.160797830996174}
0
1641091928243
100
SG
1639779118231
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
0
37
1715658890719
0
0.25445556640624994
will-the-warriors-win-the-2022-nba-
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
will-the-warriors-win-the-2022-nba
156
{"NO": 110, "YES": 46}
Will the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals?
0
1641105051918
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 33.333333333333336}
{"NO": 110, "YES": 46}
0
3.653759631593092
True
play
MKT
public
1639779668060
SG
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 221.04298224553523, "YES": 129.13558765886341}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.7213595499958}
0
1641105051918
100
SG
1639779668060
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
5
1650303498191
0
0.5
0.09846922663537425
will-there-be-at-least-three-deaths
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.09846922663537425
will-there-be-at-least-three-deaths
1072.5094849543584
{"NO": 942.5619505426228, "YES": 39.9362627290667}
Will there be at least three deaths from a conflict between Russia and Ukraine before 2022?
129.00769822604798
1641091800037
tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 81.33945031366292, "YES": 18.660549686337077}
{"NO": 942.5573133147456, "YES": 89.4503849113024}
0
4.656566499642667
True
play
NO
public
1639779863428
SG
Resolved YES if there is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET, according to reputable global news sources like Reuters, AP, etc. Jan 1, 8:46pm: Looks like it was only 1 death. https:...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1121.406467958871, "YES": 370.6150423616083}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 97.46794344808963, "YES": 22.360679774997898}
0
1641091800037
100
SG
1639779863428
0
https://firebasestorage.…6d6-ad95bdb11967
8
1715658892042
0
0.9397639921649044
6TbreIR2iqm1LICfb7bu
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9397639921649044
will-100-people-have-signed-up-for
1089.4902900268278
{"NO": 111.99999999999997, "YES": 988.5097099731724}
Will 100 people have signed up for Mantic Markets by Feb 1, 2022?
510
1640880491968
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 33.33333333333333, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
{"NO": 111.99999999999997, "YES": 983}
0
4.65593042573639
True
play
YES
public
1639783228674
Manifold
Tags: #ManticMarkets Probably of interest to @AustinChen, @SG, and @JamesGrugett #2022 Dec 18, 3:37am: Also add a link to https://astralcodexten.substack.com/
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 294.48259710889533, "YES": 1163.163978808287}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 44.72135954999579, "YES": 89.44271909999159}
0
1640880491968
100
Manifold
1639783228674
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
7
1715657448496
0
0.08514477259674169
2q2Us2NKQeVJA68k7eVZ
{"NO": 490.4371613502367, "YES": 3469.0188055854637}
0
will-mantic-markets-have-over-1m
12129.905897749217
{"NO": 3585.1387071895388, "YES": 1198.7502639844383}
Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?
80
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 33.333333333333336}
{"NO": 3665, "YES": 1130}
0
2.2104819028549345
True
play
NO
public
1639783730539
Manifold
Tags: #ManticMarkets Jan 7, 1:10pm: We changed the name of our platform to Manifold Markets, but this won't effect how we resolve the market (i.e. the question will still resolve true if Manifold Markets has over $1M in revenue by 2023). #ManifoldMarkets
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 4489.463335767932, "YES": 1922.000078558749}
{"creatorFee": 21.1768420833198, "platformFee": 0.8125529072275822, "liquidityFee": 4.65375142372306}
{"NO": 89.44271909999159, "YES": 44.7213595499958}
0
1672607042544
581.617101612271
Manifold
1672121262965
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
108
1650313783640
0
1
96
[{"name": "Manifold Investors", "slug": "manifold-investors", "groupId": "A2ZvhuOUWz24vfhGP7sO", "createdTime": 1658529429142}]
["manifold-investors"]
1672121262824
1659031290243
0.01
ManticMarkets
0.09333925972229659
rDzDMwRWMgqn3oHxsjDH
{"NO": 101.28154952977236, "YES": 653.5122762538691}
0
will-solana-have-a-higher-market-ca
4354.552619692753
{"NO": 1265.2773611895934, "YES": 270.2317815024506}
Will Solana have a higher market cap than Ethereum before the end of 2022?
200
1672531200000
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 1298, "YES": 270.00000000000006}
0
5.650626085665305
True
play
NO
public
1639792398312
James
This resolves to true if any time before 11:59pm Dec 31st 2022 Solana has a higher market cap than Ethereum according to https://coinmarketcap.com #Crypto #Solana #Ethereum
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1637.1623139455587, "YES": 569.7129651017765}
{"creatorFee": 7.977758033509629, "platformFee": 0.13301101673093804, "liquidityFee": 0.7419702581485914}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1673396987552
120.74197025814858
JamesGrugett
1672415346578
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
62
1650314776245
0
3
61
[]
[]
1672415346429
1661870899459
0.02
0.5464852607709751
TMN0TMy5zNrhxHpes2FC
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5464852607709751
test-resolve
10
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
Test resolve
0
1639866019139
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
0
4.828237724912245
True
play
YES
public
1639865941016
James
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 155.24174696260025}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1639866019139
100
JamesGrugett
1639865941016
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
1
1715658203466
0
0.9728069481742935
aIow1jyYUda2UVtPkGAc
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9728069481742935
will-mantic-markets-have-5-paying-u
3084.907306846478
{"NO": 284.0926931535215, "YES": 2751}
Will Mantic Markets have 5 paying users by Feb 01, 2022?
3.9999999999997726
1642282431704
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
{"NO": 278.99999999999983, "YES": 2751}
0
4.630456541051196
True
play
YES
public
1639874031282
Austin
This refers to creators and users who have specifically chosen to pay money to Mantic. #ManticMarkets Jan 15, 4:29pm: Our first 5 paying users (excluding James): @LarsDoucet @DuncanMasters @LucaD'Agruma @AndyMartin @TristanKnight Thank you all so much!
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 533.4388485786787, "YES": 3190.5752904458095}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
0
1642282431704
100
Austin
1639874031282
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
26
1715658365948
0
1642124693315
0.5
HvJgZ08pKfHgxHyI4OyG
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5
test-na
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
Test n/a
0
1639874117701
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
CANCEL
public
1639874110071
James
Milli was here
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1639874117701
100
JamesGrugett
1651991822274
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
0
1715657892496
0
1651991818392
0.9075504278760665
qXvdgG2bJ2HeggKEo072
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9075504278760665
will-the-mantic-markets-discord-be-
435.7219662108225
{"NO": 27.278033789177513, "YES": 415}
Will the Mantic Markets Discord be a full community by Feb 01, 2022?
20
1642320869082
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
{"NO": 24, "YES": 415}
0
4.690162966280456
True
play
YES
public
1639874691457
Austin
Some sufficient but not necessary measures of a community: - 100 people signed up - Averaging 4 posts a day - 5 meaningful conversations between non-admins #ManticMarkets Jan 16, 3:08am: We did it! Some notes: - I way overestimated the number of signups needed for "liveness". My last startup (One Word's) server had hu...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 194.93046530883325, "YES": 610.7488384205552}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
0
1642320869082
100
Austin
1639874691457
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
9
1715658738644
0
0.8521116780045351
CUB66MSEU5EzjcezCak4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8521116780045351
will-3-or-more-prominent-creators-h
136
{"NO": 6, "YES": 130}
Will 3 or more prominent creators have created Mantic markets by Jan 16, 2022?
0
1642134342592
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
{"NO": 6, "YES": 130}
0
4.753654235783955
True
play
YES
public
1639874991123
Austin
Possible examples of prominent: - 10k Twitter followers, or - Writing is their primary occupation, or - @AustinChen had read 3 or more of their articles #ManticMarkets
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 129.2130024417048, "YES": 310.16124838541646}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
0
1642134342592
100
Austin
1639874991123
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
6
1715657764104
0
1641788238664
0.9916666666666667
8uRz34QZsgxKqE0frbIM
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9916666666666667
futureperfect2021-trump-will-uneven
1000
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
#FuturePerfect2021 Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20
0
1639972033254
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
0
4.655925851497626
True
play
YES
public
1639902739928
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 To be clear, there is at this point no doubt about whether Trump will leave office on January 20, the official inauguration date for the new president, Joe Biden. Biden secured more electoral votes. Trump’s campaign m...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 1194.9895397031726}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1639972033254
100
Manifold
1639902739928
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
1
1715657656818
0
0.6999999999999998
533WxlfLZZH5TAviOX1H
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6999999999999998
futureperfect2021-biden-will-have-a
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
#FuturePerfect2021 Biden will have a treasury secretary, secretary of state, defense secretary, and attorney general confirmed by the end of the year
0
1639972097558
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
YES
public
1639904963517
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 One of the more depressing political predictions I’ve seen floating around is that, should Republicans hold on to at least one of the two Georgia Senate seats, they will block Biden from assembling a Cabinet, and we’...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1639972097558
100
Manifold
1639904963517
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715656988355
0
0.39999999999999974
MahEAccGQhlN4gDqNG7a
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.39999999999999974
at-least-one-us-state-will-have-an-
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641095466977
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
YES
public
1639905206134
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 The Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it prett...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1641095466977
100
Manifold
1639905206134
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715658023991
0
0.858906525573192
MunaJKuJ5SVjef3mrDv7
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.858906525573192
no-one-in-trumps-immediate-family-w
115
{"NO": 0, "YES": 115}
No one in Trump’s immediate family will be indicted #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641095124453
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 115}
0
4.762228114049824
True
play
YES
public
1639905264244
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 Let me be very clear: I am not saying that Jared Kushner and Donald, Melania, Donald Jr., Ivanka, Eric, and the oft-forgot Tiffany Trump are innocent of any and all crimes. I’ve read a little bit on those folks and t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 291.93321153989996}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
0
1641095124453
100
Manifold
1639905264244
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
2
1715658035423
0
0.9345252150446955
Q1SQ7gEQ7A5KNWMNUcgr
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9345252150446955
trump-approval-rating-by-years-end-
1725
{"NO": 225, "YES": 1500}
Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641146441455
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 225, "YES": 1500}
0
4.640756373437741
True
play
YES
public
1639905760770
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 The president’s approval ratings have been flat throughout his term; no matter what he does, about 55 to 60 percent of the country dislikes him and 40 to 45 percent of the country likes him. An economic boom didn’t c...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 492.56979200921364, "YES": 1860.913754046651}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1641146441455
100
Manifold
1639905760770
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
6
1715658131367
0
0.29136316337148804
sk77vMIfVWjeA1DiY5K7
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.29136316337148804
the-us-unemployment-rate-will-stay-
110
{"NO": 110, "YES": 0}
The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641095186929
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 110, "YES": 0}
0
4.764428572192729
True
play
NO
public
1639906073195
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 The Trump White House used to talk, back in the spring, about a “snapback” recovery: You lift social distancing restrictions, stuff goes back to normal, and the economy becomes what it was in January 2020, with unemp...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 260.95976701399775, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1641095186929
100
Manifold
1639906073195
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
2
1715658790830
0
0.5056881909950328
rsa2p7xlmbbW8BKyDAte
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5056881909950328
us-poverty-will-be-higher-in-late-2
195
{"NO": 125, "YES": 70}
US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020 #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641095038274
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 125, "YES": 70}
0
4.734166976544415
True
play
NO
public
1639906124587
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 I’ve written a lot about the rise in poverty this year since enhanced unemployment insurance (the $600 per week top-up included in the initial Covid-19 relief bill) expired at the end of July, and the projections tha...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 277.7138815399763, "YES": 280.89143810376277}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
1641095038274
100
Manifold
1639906124587
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
4
1715658775203
0
0.7916666666666665
YUtsXhGYlxykq9cWyjdD
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7916666666666665
the-median-home-price-in-the-bay-ar
40
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641095347139
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 40}
0
4.804004003587409
True
play
NO
public
1639906158747
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 For years, people have been declaring that the Bay Area — my home — is doomed, even as its housing prices and job market continued to boom. But 2020 may have really changed things. Many companies have moved out of ex...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 213.5415650406262}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1641095347139
100
Manifold
1639906158747
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
1
1715658324560
0
0.8469387755102041
DoSnBlgGoc6wNEsaIc2i
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.8469387755102041
100-million-americans-will-be-vacci
80
{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}
100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by end of April #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641094467195
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 80}
0
4.7791534511702505
True
play
YES
public
1639906190478
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has predicted that the vaccine will be widely available to Americans by April. Some back-of-the-envelope math tells me there’ll be...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 257.6819745345025}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1641094467195
100
Manifold
1639906190478
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
1
1715657799374
0
0.29319398191641444
rXis568Ovm53jeg0pvww
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.29319398191641444
restaurant-reservations-and-consume
1042.8253688395303
{"NO": 671.17463116047, "YES": 439.9999999999999}
Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year #FuturePerfect2021
600
1641094448660
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 637.0000000000001, "YES": 439.9999999999999}
0
4.652712462652056
True
play
NO
public
1639906217326
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer s...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1096.9083935623198, "YES": 706.4765749672785}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1641094448660
100
Manifold
1639906217326
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
10
1715658770756
0
0.3132787468850124
yljQbdaVZWEaH8hrElMw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3132787468850124
a-deadly-new-zoonotic-outbreak-will
65
{"NO": 65, "YES": 0}
A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641146569947
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 94.98743710661996, "YES": 105.01256289338004}
{"NO": 65, "YES": 0}
0
4.787664358140534
True
play
NO
public
1639906647019
Manifold
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021 I know, I know, everyone is going to hate me for saying this. And to be clear, I’m not saying we’ll see an outbreak that rises to the level of a pandemic like Covid-19, which reached into pretty much every corner of ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 219.60191255997748, "YES": 148.32396974191323}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 134.16407864998737, "YES": 148.32396974191323}
0
1641146569947
100
Manifold
1639906647019
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
2
1715658958387
0
0.438957475994513
Nw3XZnNhUMQhG9nCu3yb
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.438957475994513
the-us-will-enact-policies-to-hold-
70
{"NO": 70, "YES": 0}
The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open
0
1641094105799
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 70, "YES": 0}
0
4.784730694915448
True
play
YES
public
1639906735075
Manifold
#FuturePerfect2021 In 2020, the Biden campaign referred to China’s repression of Uighur Muslims as “genocide.” In 2021, I have no doubt that Biden will repeatedly condemn the camps where more than 1 million of them have been held. I am also fairly confident that the US will pass at least one significant bill aimed at ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 202.23748416156687, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
1641094105799
100
Manifold
1639906735075
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
2
1715658071751
0
[{"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983088}]
["china"]
0.6000000000000003
QHDiHnJUgCL0OTiTgPUX
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6000000000000003
the-hadi-government-and-houthi-rebe
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen reach a peace agreement #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641093921588
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
NO
public
1639906820529
Manifold
This bet is motivated by a few developments that together make me think 2021 could be the year the devastating conflict in Yemen that has already killed more than 100,000 people comes to an end — or, at the very least, the year that a temporary ceasefire begins as peace talks get underway. My specific prediction is tha...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1641093921588
100
Manifold
1639906820529
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715658138015
0
0.9
iMgS3nAkBc6xWhSlsYih
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9
ldp-continues-to-govern-japan-futur
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
LDP continues to govern Japan #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641093729827
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
YES
public
1639906869179
Manifold
I’m grouping these together on the somewhat tenuous grounds that I’m predicting each major former Axis power will continue to be governed by the center-right party that has dominated its politics since shortly after World War II (this pattern has not held in Italy because nothing about Italian politics makes any sense)...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1641093729827
100
Manifold
1639906869179
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715658559336
0
0.6611570247933886
gnr3LwF4VZB05HiEKiML
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6611570247933886
cdu-continues-to-govern-germany-fut
20
{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
CDU continues to govern Germany #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641093643475
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
0
4.819494920240895
True
play
CANCEL
public
1639906892425
Manifold
I’m grouping these together on the somewhat tenuous grounds that I’m predicting each major former Axis power will continue to be governed by the center-right party that has dominated its politics since shortly after World War II (this pattern has not held in Italy because nothing about Italian politics makes any sense)...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 128.06248474865697, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
1641093643475
100
Manifold
1639906892425
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
1
1715658530042
0
0.6999999999999998
5z2Sfu4s3k9PCDFspmKB
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6999999999999998
indias-economy-will-grow-in-quarter
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
India’s economy will grow in quarters 1-3 of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020 #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641093325668
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
NO
public
1639906917460
Manifold
One of the greatest tragedies of the Covid-19 crisis is that it forced low-income countries to choose between halting years and years of progress against poverty, and allowing a massive public health catastrophe to unfold. India opted for mandatory activity restrictions in certain areas perceived as at risk of Covid-19...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1641093325668
100
Manifold
1639906917460
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715657232589
0
0.75
A9OlpSsTXKmqNzwzHmtC
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.75
at-least-three-new-basic-income-pil
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
At least three new basic income pilots will be launched #FuturePerfect2021
0
1641093236858
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
YES
public
1639906945476
Manifold
Covid-19 boosted public support for the idea of a basic income. As the pandemic unexpectedly wiped out millions of people’s finances through no fault of their own, advocates argued that citizens desperately need some sort of guaranteed payment to fall back on. Some governments and philanthropists listened. Spain starte...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
0
1641093236858
100
Manifold
1639906945476
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715657692810
0
0.5456981479097246
ooiNbYz6Adqcv7eUfLPa
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5456981479097246
an-ai-breakthrough-will-lead-to-a-g
342.951762253568
{"NO": 117.53360757983006, "YES": 159.51463016660193}
An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology
160
1641105648981
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
{"NO": 140, "YES": 170}
0
4.714942594112902
True
play
MKT
public
1639911727422
Manifold
#FuturePerfect2021 In 2020, a couple of amazing AI breakthroughs rocked the biology world. First, researchers trained a neural network to predict which molecules (out of 107 million possibilities!) would have antibacterial properties, enabling them to identify brand new types of antibiotics. Then, DeepMind’s AlphaFold ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 320.7030803914318, "YES": 351.4852604879959}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
0
1641105648981
100
Manifold
1639911727422
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658688875
0
0.9685324968140379
v9BWeFT1A408eWSgT415
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9685324968140379
global-carbon-emissions-will-increa
305
{"NO": 5, "YES": 300}
Global carbon emissions will increase
0
1641093169411
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 5, "YES": 300}
0
4.709441087460418
True
play
YES
public
1639911755749
Manifold
#FuturePerfect2021 This is a perennial prediction, one of those that is mostly true every year. Global carbon emissions keep rising because the world economy is growing faster than it’s shifting to non-greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources. Last year, global carbon emissions fell, but that was caused by the near-total...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 89.58236433584459, "YES": 496.9909455915671}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1641093169411
100
Manifold
1639911755749
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658844670
0
0.9266880048773053
a5aZJiubmrloG5IT50wR
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9266880048773053
average-world-temperatures-will-inc
205
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 200.00000000000003}
Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020
2.842170943040401e-14
1641093142183
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 200.00000000000003}
0
4.731395359985805
True
play
YES
public
1639911786438
Manifold
#FuturePerfect2021 Average world temperatures have increased most years for the past several decades, though there’s a little bit of noise, so any given year isn’t a sure thing. This is a direct consequence of increased carbon emissions, but with some lag — I don’t expect last year’s small decrease in CO2 to produce a ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 109.65856099730654, "YES": 389.87177379235857}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
1641093142183
100
Manifold
1639911786438
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658355698
0
0.9124133585381222
fiJOEnlSrgC4XRfbxYr3
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9124133585381222
plantbased-meat-market-share-will-i
145
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 140.00000000000003}
Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent
2.842170943040401e-14
1641093048572
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 66.66666666666666, "YES": 133.33333333333334}
{"NO": 5.000000000000005, "YES": 140.00000000000003}
0
4.750278660841244
True
play
YES
public
1639911816780
Manifold
#FuturePerfect2021 In the past few years, we’ve seen the takeoff of plant-based meat products — foods designed to have the taste and nutrient content of meat without the environmental, health, and animal welfare costs of factory farming. Plant-based meat is only a tiny fraction of overall animal meat sales, but it’s gr...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 102.10288928331069, "YES": 329.5451410656816}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
0
1641093048572
100
Manifold
1639911816780
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
3
1715658511120
0
[{"name": "Animal Consumption Trends", "slug": "animal-consumption-trends", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "RTDjcmMVJN1MfAy3U0vD", "createdTime": 1673334319423}]
["animal-consumption-trends"]
0.1903628792385485
X8SxNgjw7m8sSSL81rRn
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.1903628792385485
will-austinchen-test-positive-for-c
5
{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}
Will @AustinChen test positive for Covid again before 2022?
0
1641384365780
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
{"NO": 5, "YES": 0}
0
4.832896892548729
True
play
NO
public
1640018823652
Austin
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 184.4586674569672, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
0
1641384365780
100
Austin
1640018823652
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
1715658286847
0
0.9407042248045538
Y9y4EzGooKs2wsmrh934
{"NO": 142.16442101180738, "YES": 118.70435787185785}
1
omicron-has-a-100-or-bigger-transmi
1150.739754989472
{"NO": 33, "YES": 381.4389221078994}
#Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta
0
1672531200000
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 33, "YES": 385}
0
8.803950083046319
True
play
YES
public
1640032580361
Manifold
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 It’s pretty hard to look at the UK data and draw any other conclusion. I hold out the possibility that this is an early-stage thing enough that it might not break 100% exactly, but this doesn’t seem like an interesting question anymore, since at most we are ‘ta...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 151.95064988344078, "YES": 595.3538351275795}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1672607346727
120
Manifold
1672607349836
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
17
1650314636693
0
1
18
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601092}]
["medicine"]
1670079811077
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{"NO": 30, "YES": 50}
#Omicron is importantly more virulent than Delta
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cpmm-1
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{"NO": 30, "YES": 50}
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MKT
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1640032598978
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#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7
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{"NO": 196.9771560359221, "YES": 34.64101615137755}
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Manifold
1640032598978
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Manifold
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 The data from Denmark and South Africa point in opposite directions here. Saying ‘oh well they cancel out’ is the coward’s way out for sure, but until I have more time to process that’s where I am at. I’ll probably update at some point soon off no new informati...
BINARY
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{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
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Manifold
1640032621777
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CDC labels #Omicron a variant of high consequence before 2022
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{"NO": 13, "YES": 0}
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NO
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1640032683078
Manifold
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 I mean they should based on what I think it means, but whether or not they will doesn’t have much to do with that. Still waiting. Update Dec 20, 5:38pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8 This number hasn’t adjusted for the time that has pa...
BINARY
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{"NO": 188.67962264113208, "YES": 66.332495807108}
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Manifold
1640032683078
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We will be getting boosters modified for #Omicron within 6 months of our previous booster shot
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{"NO": 691, "YES": 235}
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1640032716607
Manifold
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 Fauci is outright saying we don’t need an updated booster ‘at this time.’ That definitely kills any super rapid response but in the later part of the window it still seems plausible. Update Dec 20, 5:39pm: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/20/omicron-post-8 ...
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{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
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1663292512643
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1640032756261
Manifold
#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 The data in the UK and Ontario, and the data now coming in from various American cities, and the CDC nowcast, all point in the direction that this is happening fast. There’s no sign of a robust policy response anywhere, so maybe we really will let it burn, but ...
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{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 118.32159566199235}
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Manifold
1640032756261
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{"NO": 20, "YES": 1}
#Omicron will be >1% of all cases by the end of the year
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{"NO": 20, "YES": 1}
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play
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1640032799351
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#ZviOnOmicron https://thezvi.substack.com/p/omicron-post-7 This already happened. It’s done.
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{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
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1640032799351
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1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%
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play
NO
public
1640033825488
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
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Manifold
1640033825488
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2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)
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{"NO": 20, "YES": 0}
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play
NO
public
1640033825883
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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1641092264521
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Manifold
1640033825883
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3. Yang is New York mayor
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{"NO": 470, "YES": 170}
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play
NO
public
1640033826200
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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{"NO": 89.44271909999158, "YES": 178.88543819998318}
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1640880323142
100
Manifold
1640033826200
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422305}]
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4. Newsom recalled as CA governor
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1640880539363
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{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
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play
NO
public
1640033826454
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
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1640880539363
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Manifold
1640033826454
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https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
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5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year
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{"NO": 75, "YES": 100}
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1640033826721
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World Jan 2, 12:17am: This one is not obvious how to resolve -- it probably depends on what protests count as BLM. I think the spirit of it is narrower than for just any protest on the left.
BINARY
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{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
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1641104945093
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Manifold
1640033826721
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6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)
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1640033826987
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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Manifold
1640033826987
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7. Trump is allowed back on Twitter
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1641091732099
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{"NO": 265, "YES": 105}
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NO
public
1640033827257
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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1640033827257
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8. Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule
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{"NO": 50, "YES": 0}
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YES
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1640033827499
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
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1640880564685
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1640033827499
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416746}]
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9. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war
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{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
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NO
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1640033827726
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
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1640033827726
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416328}, {"name": "Ukraine-Russia war", "slug": "ukrainerussia-war", "groupId": "OxcXOuxXvwsXtC0Dx5sr", "createdTime": 1691182224303}]
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10-major-flareup-significantly-wors
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10. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict
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1641092038988
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{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}
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NO
public
1640033827979
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World Biggest flare-up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israel%E2%80%93Palestine_crisis Looks like under 300 deaths, which wouldn't be significantly worse than anything in last 10 years.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
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{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
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1640033827979
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[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529422596}, {"name": "Israel", "slug": "israel", "userId": "vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1", "groupId": "ECjphikMbmosJsDAAJoU", "createdTime": 1670788014399}]
["world-default", "israel"]
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11. Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict
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1641091709105
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{"NO": 162.67890062732585, "YES": 37.321099372674155}
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play
NO
public
1640033828321
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
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{"NO": 194.93588689617926, "YES": 44.721359549995796}
0
1641091709105
100
Manifold
1640033828321
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
1
1715657689844
0
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529414099}, {"name": "China", "slug": "china", "userId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "groupId": "oWTzfoeemQGkSoPFn2T7", "createdTime": 1659742983089}]
["world-default", "china"]
0.39999999999999974
MjN2AcDPZUtGEipPv3jg
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.39999999999999974
12-netanyahu-is-still-israeli-pm
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
12. Netanyahu is still Israeli PM
0
1640880349142
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
NO
public
1640033828593
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1640880349142
100
Manifold
1640033828593
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
0
1715658027393
0
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529416611}, {"name": "Israeli Politics", "slug": "israeli-politics", "groupId": "oaA5hjgZSh89HoVfdGYX", "createdTime": 1658529562244}]
["israeli-politics", "world-default"]
0.11019283746556473
kpB5LgfThfykDpGY0nIY
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.11019283746556473
13-prospera-has-at-least-1000-resid
130
{"NO": 130, "YES": 0}
13. Prospera has at least 1000 residents
0
1641092685935
IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 120.871215252208, "YES": 79.128784747792}
{"NO": 130, "YES": 0}
0
4.75600003485126
True
play
NO
public
1640033829095
Manifold
#ACX2021 https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021 #World
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 311.2876483254676, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 167.33200530681512, "YES": 109.54451150103321}
0
1641092685935
100
Manifold
1640033829095
0
https://firebasestorage.…49e-82621e62e5e4
2
1715658602611
0
[{"name": "World", "slug": "world-default", "groupId": "5mzNYaPKc4qXC5J0npKe", "createdTime": 1658529420454}]
["world-default"]
0.9333333333333333
Um61u0dg0f3fG4bR0U9c
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9333333333333333
will-acx-grants-fund-mantic-markets
400
{"NO": 0, "YES": 400}
Will ACX Grants fund Mantic Markets?
0
1640334616437
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 400}
0
4.695099173273781
True
play
YES
public
1640133003771
Austin
This excludes ACX Grants+ or ACX Grants++ #ManticMarkets #ACX #ManifoldMarkets #Funding
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 579.6550698475776}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1640334616437
100
Austin
1640133003771
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
1715658228957
0
0.7470747152438756
1k9pPxBPRMPCx6lwDrkM
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7470747152438756
if-scott-alexander-creates-a-market
1417.3570084000535
{"NO": 217.27891633695435, "YES": 751.3640752629922}
If Scott Alexander creates a market, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?
0
1643748268081
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 50, "YES": 150}
{"NO": 220, "YES": 738}
0
4.656997668241115
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640136073244
Austin
#JanRoadmap Feb 1, 12:44pm: resolving to NA as the criteria has not been met.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 587.7301669943424, "YES": 1010.0988528953369}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 63.24555320336758, "YES": 189.73665961010275}
0
1643748268081
100
Austin
1640136073244
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
13
1715656898502
0
1641744663428
0.6000000000000003
DPQ4DmKPODAMtZBYTMps
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6000000000000003
if-manticmarkets-implements-a-centr
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
If #ManticMarkets implements a central limit order book, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?
0
1643748324194
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640136153835
Austin
#JanRoadmap Feb 1, 12:44pm: resolving to N/A As the condition has not been met
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1643748324194
100
Austin
1640136153835
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
0
1715657785868
0
0.75
IbpiLh3QHucSkGLNLo3u
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.75
if-manticmarkets-implements-a-twitt
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
If #ManticMarkets implements a Twitter-like feed, will 100 people have traded on Mantic by Feb 1, 2022?
0
1641384307582
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 73.20508075688772, "YES": 126.79491924311228}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640136207437
Austin
#JanRoadmap
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 100, "YES": 173.20508075688772}
0
1641384307582
100
Austin
1640136207437
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
0
1715657910061
0
0.1666666666666667
4Ue3FG9EfOmzZwu00Q5l
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.1666666666666667
will-the-university-of-michigan-win
400
{"NO": 300, "YES": 100}
Will the University of Michigan win the College Football Championship in 2021/2022 season?
0
1641014838244
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
{"NO": 300, "YES": 100}
0
4.695099173273781
True
play
NO
public
1640146781337
BCG
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 547.7225575051662, "YES": 244.94897427831785}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
0
1641014838244
100
BruceGrugett
1640146781337
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
4
1715656972408
0
0.25521868100612816
uT1j2SWhZuiaA0myti9q
{"NO": 78.1718107547828, "YES": 321.41212705417826}
0
will-at-least-75-of-the-usa-covid19
26461.774095893557
{"NO": 2673.5102506179705, "YES": 1831.0429332564868}
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
20
1663875999948
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 2905, "YES": 1835}
0
1.3321510819711833
True
play
NO
public
1640203834520
Austin
Resolved according to https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/ Dates are inclusive. #ZviOnOmicron #Omicron
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 4049.726729543199, "YES": 2394.12118113881}
{"creatorFee": 21.611424615718686, "platformFee": 1.5025115315902107, "liquidityFee": 6.065704735395165}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1663875999948
106.06570473539514
Austin
1663876025590
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
52
1650314795313
0
1
52
[{"name": "Medicine ", "slug": "medicine", "userId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "groupId": "oHiQ4mneKC2r5ICg4XJ8", "createdTime": 1660132601086}, {"name": "Covid", "slug": "covid", "userId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "groupId": "iGfuM2jmlUwyQVMGyDbi", "createdTime": 1662506891682}]
["medicine", "covid"]
1663865816724
1663876023295
0.07693171722580107
0.6371882086167804
pLuBoYJE8Abupo9bpWzV
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6371882086167804
will-austinchen-go-rock-climbing-to
10
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
Will @AustinChen go rock climbing tomorrow (2021-12-23) evening?
0
1640583469655
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 89.89794855663558, "YES": 110.10205144336442}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 10}
0
4.828237724912245
True
play
NO
public
1640233015906
Austin
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 167.63054614240215}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 126.49110640673513, "YES": 154.91933384829673}
0
1640583469655
100
Austin
1640233015906
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
1
1715658704802
0
0.7965882476050642
Ep8WgE0eriTjFkfSaXWe
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.7965882476050642
will-we-deploy-the-feature-to-sell-
31.057403257498045
{"NO": 4.400000000000003, "YES": 24.542596742501956}
Will we deploy the feature to sell your position before 2022?
20.000000000000007
1640642742357
5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 69.37367983719986, "YES": 130.62632016280014}
{"NO": 4.400000000000003, "YES": 25.6}
0
4.812379921074141
True
play
YES
public
1640380482892
James
Mantic Markets moves quickly. Does it move this quickly?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 103.18914671611546, "YES": 204.20339019667367}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 93.80831519646861, "YES": 176.63521732655693}
0
1640642742357
100
JamesGrugett
1640380482892
0
https://firebasestorage.…e65-9d8b4836eb03
1
1715657825613
0
0.5237301319098058
6G3L7V0GlN5spXOyuUjL
{"NO": 109.65790860703913, "YES": 91.70906870247069}
0.568009910921683
test
801.4257245377564
{"NO": 41.94475352929649, "YES": 19.999999999999886}
test
0
1656547200000
gFHPYoVtLOS2WLltl971yF35Fgf2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 84.64640047231524, "YES": 115.35359952768476}
{"NO": 43, "YES": 20}
0
2.785684542343061
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640643213952
Pablo Abdelhay
test
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 184.43170525027384, "YES": 186.0107523773827}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 118.32159566199236, "YES": 161.24515496597095}
0
1697234900413
103.6572544164287
PabloAbdelhay
1697239883158
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjxZMBrDlp81t7NGaw0wifr_eis3fc2zVnSmNtekcE=s96-c
12
1650313805342
0
1
14
[]
[]
1656496076541
1697239879387
0.57
0.2461734693877551
8PUi4k6pedeDOSgZNxpo
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.2461734693877551
will-any-of-the-202122-college-foot
80
{"NO": 50, "YES": 30}
Will any of the 2021-22 College Footbal Playoff games be canceled due to Covid-19?
0
1641912696605
VglwDx84R4NShD6wGqfVt94AhCM2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 139.2335130598626, "YES": 60.76648694013741}
{"NO": 50, "YES": 30}
0
4.7791534511702505
True
play
NO
public
1640654451138
Isaac Grow
Will the orange bowl, cotton bowl, or the National Championship game be canceled due to Covid-19?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 243.10491562286438, "YES": 138.92443989449805}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 183.30302779823361, "YES": 80}
0
1641912696605
100
IsaacGrow
1640654451138
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi_MCoOkrp-cDeQe9hXBGIVA5sPiYM1xJPxYhvv=s96-c
3
1715657640068
0
0.15910258973773866
J5vxtwRSw6qJnhVhy5EU
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.15910258973773866
will-scott-alexander-put-a-question
810.3694423620948
{"NO": 317.7562709941757, "YES": 89.87428664372948}
Will Scott Alexander put a question on Mantic Markets before February 1st 2022
40
1643748914790
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 318, "YES": 81}
0
4.694134252476404
True
play
NO
public
1640663091864
Dan Sparkman
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 557.2000077877485, "YES": 242.3696472264722}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1643748914790
100
DanSparkman
1640663091864
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c
11
1715657927522
0
1642369762084
0.799120701907672
c95RFVoZ2NxCap3fFgZy
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.799120701907672
will-the-top-post-on-redditcomrallt
3946.591076820257
{"NO": 1093.408923179743, "YES": 2040}
Will the top post on reddit.com/r/all/top for January 1, 2022 be an image?
2000
1641082054886
ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 1500, "YES": 2040}
0
4.630008176731355
True
play
NO
public
1640663849081
Dwaxe
This market will resolve positively if the top post on reddit.com/r/all/top/ on the first archive captured on archive.today on or after 02 Jan 2022 00:00:00 UTC is an image file (e.g. jpeg or png). Dec 30, 3:07am: Animated images will resolve negatively (e.g. mp4 or gif) Jan 1, 4:04pm: Here it is: https://archive.ph/Mg...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1493.8575515666853, "YES": 2979.5301643044327}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1641082054886
100
Dwaxe
1640663849081
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c
9
1715658417478
0
0.10835609213979035
puvWOBELmtn3r5797ag4
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.10835609213979035
will-england-enter-lockdown-before-
921.0549905556235
{"NO": 660.9450094443764, "YES": 90}
Will England enter lockdown before 1 February 2022?
40
1643710680384
Ra9jlFAEZeSqByhDgqPYTiKHFDm2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 676, "YES": 90}
0
4.666359790065699
True
play
NO
public
1640691626172
Ferruginous Duck
This market will resolve to ‘yes’ if by 11:59:59 GMT on 31/01/22 England has entered what I consider to be a nationwide ‘lockdown’: working from home required if possible, pubs and restaurants shut across (almost) the whole country, news stories asserting there’s a lockdown, etc.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 897.553618856011, "YES": 312.8897569432403}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1643710680384
100
FerruginousDuck
1640691626172
0
https://firebasestorage.…b68-22faf69bd4b8
13
1715658722414
0
0.678791567841227
JEBkPNuPE4eDWKul2CBe
{"NO": 800.4323601850615, "YES": 1091.180607610161}
0.6078682761724682
will-the-runnerup-in-the-2024-us-pr
7160.624932163984
{"NO": 518.7878759609526, "YES": 1004.6178456481409}
Will the runner-up in the 2024 US Presidential Election accept their defeat by Dec 31, 2024?
1028
1767225600000
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 864, "YES": 940}
0
9.54640513274091
False
basic
public
1640703303623
Mosiah
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is an ongoing court case to determine the winner at any time in 2025, it's a no.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other nos include armed conflict led by the non-conceding candidate, o...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": -0.006530822499724698, "month": -0.006530822499724698}
0
{"NO": 850.5805287532477, "YES": 1497.918943373591}
{"creatorFee": 8.171847286320437, "platformFee": 0.12073312812051641, "liquidityFee": 0.13196461848071217}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1000
Mosiah
1720121109954
0
https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617
57
1650313892879
1
1
31
[{"name": "2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J", "createdTime": 1662798870163}, {"name": "US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96", "createdTime": 1691181869295}]
["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics"]
1720121106887
1689761183495
False
0.0233596948502121
S0pYkvY8VsVhSZraR9xa
{"NO": 985.0735190518246, "YES": 1600.934255316316}
0.014503827007968024
will-dwayne-johnson-win-the-2024-us
104723.032595619
{"NO": 18682.211359888686, "YES": 2709.70187065767}
Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2
1737331200000
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 181.7349502631302, "YES": 18.2650497368698}
{"NO": 19207.98, "YES": 2707.02}
0.06503381583486567
10.586609649448985
False
basic
public
1640703608159
Mosiah
resolving Jan 20, 2025
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 20836.785864935344, "YES": 5659.500792020877}
{"creatorFee": 23.405613091819806, "platformFee": 1.7359243369396786, "liquidityFee": 4.05092080615632}
{"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20}
0
1000
Mosiah
1716683058147
1.1
https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617
2
295
1650314594833
0
1
245
[{"name": "🇺🇸 US Politics", "slug": "us-politics", "groupId": "AjxQR8JMpNyDqtiqoA96"}, {"name": "🗳️ Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD"}, {"name": "🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election", "slug": "2024-us-presidential-election", "groupId": "rr3rBJMwh9PW8hwrgR4J"}]
["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"]
0.23159411188300635
1716683036369
1689743421234
0.09716026957737768
kwXI2svhJoKrLknayCnY
{"NO": 154.26061285153656, "YES": 1723.1369048668553}
0
will-apple-sell-an-apple-branded-ar
2100.770131963385
{"NO": 379.8368118056486, "YES": 70}
Will Apple sell an Apple branded AR or VR Headset by December 1st 2022?
0
1669852800000
J10mJNy7p9QjO0s3jRgwx2jyras2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 395, "YES": 70}
0
5.205699661757211
True
play
NO
public
1640745210543
Oliver266
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 598.5742608412235, "YES": 252.9757621514618}
{"creatorFee": 0.3249822404118069, "platformFee": 0.013766175260189896, "liquidityFee": 0.08259705156113936}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1680827284623
200.08259705156115
Oliver266
1680827290852
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyAz9ROQnkPI_hlRdHWHuVdBb2DspfEzYTjblEb=s96-c
19
1650314735998
0
26
18
[{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669828366234}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 16736700487...
["virtual-reality", "please-resolve"]
1669828425945
1680827288446
0.01
0.0654477263175542
sxU8YDAHs9JtHya48xqj
{"NO": 135.08718174939222, "YES": 227.04730337594103}
0
will-ethereum-overtake-bitcoin-in-t
2490.059617431748
{"NO": 1471.6679401834117, "YES": 153.88409833954552}
Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in term of Market Capitalization at any time during 2022?
0
1672531200000
J10mJNy7p9QjO0s3jRgwx2jyras2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 1474, "YES": 155}
0
8.855825937943768
True
play
NO
public
1640745842641
Oliver266
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 1756.4918633612863, "YES": 497.36966061564596}
{"creatorFee": 1.5627595279501114, "platformFee": 0.009973524976078353, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1680209533590
140
Oliver266
1680209532170
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyAz9ROQnkPI_hlRdHWHuVdBb2DspfEzYTjblEb=s96-c
36
1650314786925
0
18
38
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092564657}, {"name": "Cryptocurrency", "slug": "crypto-speculation", "groupId": "YuJw0M1xvUHrpiRRuKso", "createdTime": 1691181913336}]
["please-resolve", "crypto-speculation"]
1670080398126
1680209528710
False
0.04
0.9899999999999998
DwZsMM1eG0wOo0MHwxue
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9899999999999998
i-got-to-admit-its-getting-better-j
0
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
I got to admit its getting better, just a little better all the time.
0
1641223437539
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 18.2650497368698, "YES": 181.7349502631302}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 0}
0
4.837765190619555
True
play
YES
public
1640746887617
Dan Sparkman
I don't know that this question will ever resolve. I wanted to see is its possible to have a market in general optimistic outlook.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 20.00000000000012, "YES": 198.99748742132397}
0
1641223437539
100
DanSparkman
1640746887617
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c
0
1715657800584
0
0.5444234404536862
InwkaleGXKJaOX4tBDnw
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.5444234404536862
cant-get-much-worse
30
{"NO": 10, "YES": 20}
Can't get much worse.
0
1643771853909
kGsyRrJ3rgYG9ud4g955Pa9LXMJ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 10, "YES": 20}
0
4.811443379367307
True
play
YES
public
1640746923481
Dan Sparkman
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 155.24174696260025, "YES": 169.7056274847714}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1643771853909
100
DanSparkman
1640746923481
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwsVdgEz5wh4BhS7jLewnQIQYu5N9DOJDlDJsIQ=s96-c
2
1715657917867
0
0.9416757840601819
eRa29YBHAoAgcUMy2XLH
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9416757840601819
will-mantic-markets-still-be-using-
2022.5379281689068
{"NO": 303.06207183109325, "YES": 1528.4}
Will Mantic Markets still be using a Dynamic Parimutuel system by Feb 01, 2022?
2
1643748283388
igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 79.12878474779203, "YES": 120.87121525220797}
{"NO": 252.60000000000002, "YES": 1528.4}
0
4.639429470443879
True
play
YES
public
1640748966361
Austin
#ManticMarkets
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 490.60503355183243, "YES": 1971.3250756582877}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 109.54451150103326, "YES": 167.3320053068151}
0
1643748283388
100
Austin
1640748966361
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c
12
1715658485634
0
0.5468255137400045
kaPN4D0TGZttoDPdblSK
{"NO": 306.58988824779755, "YES": 160.9898986496633}
0.6967822795183737
will-i-be-a-regular-user-of-this-we
2163.350113961429
{"NO": 85.88843690603446, "YES": 108}
Will I be a regular user of this website in 2022?
80
1680826523320
FtiFGSEK9wYoNVHHgfSMil2lWNI2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
{"NO": 90, "YES": 108}
0
1.5823652909320354
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640751403214
Jasper Day
I will set a reminder on my calendar to update this market at the end of 2022. If the reminder is the first time I've thought about the website for at least 2 months, I will update the market to "No." Otherwise I will update it to "Yes." I will seed the initial bet at 20% probability with $50 of my own fake money. Dec...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 276.17975407413286, "YES": 280.84053089554004}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
0
1680826529763
221.26636444213082
JasperDay
1680852146569
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gif93SxmVS_Qi8nd08CpqKEnqt32wJor0MMcYV6uw=s96-c
22
1650314733791
0
20
21
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1676092564891}]
["please-resolve"]
1672530801276
1680852140707
0.7
0.6359313075253026
6GcxrHQkGPeuHrO10Hcb
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.6359313075253026
will-sports-still-matter-a-lot-to-t
235.61849920903865
{"NO": 0, "YES": 34.381500790961354}
Will sports still matter a lot to the average American in 2040?
0
1645279590450
fsyShK4KkwWup1qcZLHm3xW4Oc32
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 35}
0
4.80811268893524
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640760825965
Sam
This market will resolve positively ("Yes") if sports still matter a lot to the average American on January 1, 2040. Examples of sports mattering a lot: - Youth spend significant amounts of time training, playing and thinking about sports - Adults spend significant time/money watching sports or organizing social out...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 186.90823393586336}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1645279590450
100
sam
1640760825965
0
https://firebasestorage.…e62-dce9d8dcdf63
4
1715657383797
0
1
0.6359313075253026
0.9510855495775847
4EY1wV58irrOOJjtrF5r
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9510855495775847
will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ
19118.035116822968
{"NO": 1300.5744914479635, "YES": 10453.390391729072}
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
0
1645692199077
KVTphoQbaDbmPTayI06VSlf2Sao2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 115.35359952768478, "YES": 84.64640047231522}
{"NO": 1135, "YES": 10451}
0
4.61929433203868
True
play
YES
public
1640787639799
nic
This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 2641.6003108606833, "YES": 11658.44004255674}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 161.24515496597098, "YES": 118.32159566199235}
0
1645692199077
100
nic_kup
1690172724293
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi1nJQXNQ3PA-wqCPsU9jqSly3kAwGkSulM3lRmYw=s96-c
59
1715656970117
0
1
1653767518472
1690172722280
0.9510855495775847
0.20062668019726185
6QmZt0KH2BiHegTlzqTh
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.20062668019726185
will-the-united-states-legalize-rea
236.99999999999997
{"NO": 30.00000000000003, "YES": 7}
Will the United States legalize real money prediction markets by June 1, 2023?
0
1645568655535
mnmwpiiDWwMbWdRvuNtN0fXVsxt1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 133.33333333333331, "YES": 66.66666666666667}
{"NO": 30, "YES": 7}
0
4.806175753603968
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640791010262
Andrew Hartman
I feel like the title sums it up pretty well. I consider this to be a major barrier to the development of the markets at the moment. We'll say that this one will be resolved positively if the federal government allows at least some real money markets to exist, even if there's some sort of onerous licensing scheme or ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 211.89620100417093, "YES": 106.15554625171501}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 178.88543819998318, "YES": 89.4427190999916}
0
1645568655535
100
AndrewHartman
1640791010262
0
https://firebasestorage.…a82-24c9bd44e039
5
1715657413575
0
1
0.20062668019726185
0.16926799058814002
Hna8LSuNDcvK7MS5OBgV
{"NO": 318.61220672261584, "YES": 2574.440440529444}
0
will-starship-reach-orbit-by-the-en
5535.21424160072
{"NO": 203.32849463992375, "YES": 469.9747292994923}
Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?
0
1672531200000
wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 201, "YES": 483}
0
1.65852415015075
True
play
NO
public
1640799021863
DAL59
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as yes, if, by January 1st, 2023, a SpaceX Starship (or renamed equivalent) launched in 2022 will enter a stable orbit around the Earth. Reentry and landing are not required.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "cont...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 461.69362135511466, "YES": 741.2809999878431}
{"creatorFee": 9.465968117158544, "platformFee": 0.5138557294696786, "liquidityFee": 3.0201454431793295}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1672549595093
523.0201454431793
DAL59
1710451914579
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c
59
1650313883540
0
1
56
[{"name": "🚀 Spacex", "slug": "spacex", "groupId": "5PW6TJT2EhJNISetqsEh"}, {"name": "🌌 Space", "slug": "space", "groupId": "SmJk6RHToaLxLk0I1ZSC"}, {"name": "🚗 Elon musk", "slug": "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "groupId": "9OR5MrEu1F01FhmBRcre"}]
["spacex", "space", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"]
1672438800451
1669069661956
0.02
0.946904985257169
zo6ss3HoE124auWSeDXZ
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.946904985257169
will-axie-infinitys-slp-token-be-wo
1791.9379234798141
{"NO": 201.06207652018588, "YES": 1227}
Will Axie Infinity's $SLP token be worth less than $0.01 USD (1 cent) by February 1, 2022?
100
1643699436335
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 82.47806930608819, "YES": 117.52193069391181}
{"NO": 126, "YES": 1227}
0
4.645360573084767
True
play
YES
public
1640805011182
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, Axie Infinity's Smooth Love Potion ($SLP) token trades for less than $0.01 USD. For the avoidance of doubt, the price in USD must be less than $0.01 USD at the time of closing, not temporarily dipping below that price before then and then recove...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 375.14385158787957, "YES": 1584.251626358335}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 114.89125293076061, "YES": 163.70705543744896}
0
1643699436335
100
LarsDoucet
1640805011182
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
8
1715658979521
0
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578254}]
["economics-default"]
1643699375354
0.9434927055894305
xdBhkVzV9ut46hcsn3iR
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9434927055894305
will-axie-infinitys-axs-token-be-wo
1694.139045294005
{"NO": 236.86095470599503, "YES": 1067}
Will Axie Infinity's $AXS token be worth less than $75.00 USD by February 1, 2022?
0
1643698641182
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 131, "YES": 1067}
0
4.647816823187583
True
play
YES
public
1640805389109
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, Axie Infinity's Axie Infinity Shard ($AXS) token trades for less than $75.00 USD. For the avoidance of doubt, the price in USD must be less than $75.00 USD at the time of closing, not simply temporarily dipping below that price before then and t...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 357.48674253631657, "YES": 1460.7535726466663}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1643698641182
100
LarsDoucet
1640805389109
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
9
1715658924791
0
[{"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529578106}]
["economics-default"]
1642807614116
0.23866581093751968
JOLqUM7VZVWGyPMyjgOM
{"NO": 103.73708237350644, "YES": 996.054209916458}
0
will-joe-rogan-interview-a-guest-ab
4123.3286725950675
{"NO": 559.5002407118897, "YES": 389.90315540740914}
Will Joe Rogan interview a guest about Georgism in 2022?
0
1672531200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 581, "YES": 382}
0
2.953760993125686
True
play
NO
public
1640805909009
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience" on Spotify, invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context. #JoeRogan #Georgism #...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 919.693364905864, "YES": 689.4144483245958}
{"creatorFee": 10.508193245852915, "platformFee": 0.7837413664914017, "liquidityFee": 4.6796007564799}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1672976192735
184.67960075647989
LarsDoucet
1672976168074
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
50
1650313894454
0
2
47
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529481023}, {"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1658529562652}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTim...
["georgism", "politics-default", "economics-default"]
1672069861903
1672976161444
0.03
0.2690540799600938
SwvG3sAOo0XtSlfvxhjI
{"NO": 154.96597893877947, "YES": 1648.4254964976142}
0
will-congress-hold-any-hearings-abo
2803.912003731245
{"NO": 40, "YES": 440.7207753009491}
Will Congress hold any hearings about Blockchain/NFT Games in 2022?
0
1672531200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 40, "YES": 442}
0
1.931222242363885
True
play
NO
public
1640806259515
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, either the House of Representatives or the Senate of the United States of America convenes at least one public hearing in which one or more Representatives or Senators utters the word "Blockchain" or "NFT" in the context of electronic games, or...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 237.06539182259397, "YES": 638.1071805945496}
{"creatorFee": 1.4242050694111938, "platformFee": 0.15866496556916063, "liquidityFee": 0.875236311471908}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1672976736220
380.8752363114719
LarsDoucet
1672527568234
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
37
1650314601402
0
2
35
[{"name": "Gaming", "slug": "gaming", "groupId": "5FaFmmaNNFTSA5r0vTAi", "createdTime": 1658529411366}, {"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529487817}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": ...
["politics-default", "economics-default", "gaming", "crypto-speculation"]
1672527567810
1670155454681
False
0.03
0.238107647528278
sWF1sPevitxVmUWPOYql
{"NO": 194.76562969272493, "YES": 748.6154169312947}
0
will-congress-hold-any-hearings-abo-e21f987033b3
4233.08801146041
{"NO": 265.4314512021333, "YES": 411}
Will Congress hold any hearings about Roblox in 2022?
0
1672531200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 265, "YES": 411}
0
1.9048853967169042
True
play
NO
public
1640806342983
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, either the House of Representatives or the Senate of the United States of America convenes at least one public hearing in which one or more Representatives or Senators utters the word "Roblox." #Roblox #Gaming #USCongress #Politics #USA
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 565.8338479943242, "YES": 669.301236455016}
{"creatorFee": 5.812973908950324, "platformFee": 0.1920410564815317, "liquidityFee": 1.1522463388891901}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1672977419860
301.1522463388892
LarsDoucet
1670531213825
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
38
1650314784929
0
2
38
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529508005}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529576590}, {"name": "Roblox", "slug": "roblox", "groupId": "JPuRmWhVSpbY88mhJVEU", "createdTime": ...
["politics-default", "economics-default", "roblox"]
1670531213695
0.08
0.23731138545953362
6FDjyzk3c5hDLdDG7Eid
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.23731138545953362
will-a-major-norwegian-political-pa
70
{"NO": 60, "YES": 10}
Will a Major Norwegian Political Party have Land Value Tax in their platform in 2022?
0
1642097290527
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 117.52193069391183, "YES": 82.47806930608817}
{"NO": 60, "YES": 10}
0
4.784730694915448
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640807646012
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, any major Norwegian Political party has mentioned "Land Value Tax" favorably on the section of their website that lays out their platform / list of supported policies. Not using the word "Land Value Tax" but instead mentioning "Property Tax" com...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 235.79652245103193, "YES": 131.52946437965906}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 163.70705543744901, "YES": 114.89125293076057}
0
1642097290527
100
LarsDoucet
1640807646012
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
3
1715657324894
0
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529470617}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTime": 1658529564937}]
["politics-default", "economics-default"]
0.519333273368849
9jjQ0IKxIG3zSMWwx9fC
{"NO": 15.787828465566236, "YES": 642.5428589777212}
0
mantic-will-airdrop-crypto-to-early
2413.498021502738
{"NO": 343.04422663602963, "YES": 433}
Mantic will airdrop crypto to early users by June 30, 2022
20
1656633600000
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 59.163263264897864, "YES": 140.83673673510214}
{"NO": 365, "YES": 433}
0
4.137618877146872
True
play
NO
public
1640813844121
Mosiah
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 658.6027903274679, "YES": 720.190483326851}
{"creatorFee": 5.962549905228455, "platformFee": 0.9085498370228635, "liquidityFee": 4.445020015918511}
{"NO": 77.45966692414838, "YES": 184.39088914585773}
0
1663868197656
104.44502001591853
Mosiah
1663861368879
0
https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617
34
1650313828308
0
1
35
[{"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 1661779938573}]
["please-resolve"]
1656445302250
1663861367206
0.025860884158929568
0.3454024020486703
pBK5PqwwRYswCbbMu9t8
{"NO": 74.91078244656205, "YES": 751.0154654859002}
0
will-any-major-known-associates-of-
3643.566324508677
{"NO": 125, "YES": 102.99291207150708}
Will any major known associates of Jeffrey Epstein (besides Ghislaine Maxwell) receive new indictments connected to Epstein's sex trafficking ring in 2022?
0
1672531200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 125, "YES": 111}
0
2.64600748706611
True
play
NO
public
1640817437196
Lars Doucet
This market will resolve to "Yes", if, by December 31, 11:59:59 PM CT, any of the following people have been indicted for crimes connected to Jeffrey Epstein's sex trafficking ring. This only counts *new* indictments made after this market was posted (December 29, 2021). If someone is arrested but not indicted let's sa...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 294.74565306379, "YES": 310.32713832897184}
{"creatorFee": 3.5501234335386114, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1672616003047
180
LarsDoucet
1672498650446
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c
25
1650314763023
0
1
25
[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529505199}]
["politics-default"]
1672498650262
1642285235830
0.05
0.23924007702462494
uC6F5GTnc76W3SUp3MHq
{"NO": 87.4928626037557, "YES": 316.4147892090094}
0
privacy-tokens-will-outgrow-status-
1828.184721663175
{"NO": 195, "YES": 132}
Privacy tokens will outgrow "status symbol NFTs" in 2022
0
1672531200000
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
{"NO": 195, "YES": 132}
0
3.4966497623789112
True
play
NO
public
1640817826834
Mosiah
the purpose of this market is to bet that privacy will outshine social signaling as a core narrative for crypto in 2022
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 451.11528460028927, "YES": 272.44081926172515}
{"creatorFee": 1.9319515594544046, "platformFee": 0.03573693411352624, "liquidityFee": 0.21442160468115745}
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
0
1672964378474
120.21442160468116
Mosiah
1671140276435
0
https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617
14
1650314792950
0
2
15
1671140276274
1646035333435
0.08
0.4279156465102925
5tCKSQ360eUmPqkOt2Do
{"NO": 62.87611837829508, "YES": 344.8936874426506}
0
will-activisionblizzard-solve-its-r
1295.4776894046458
{"NO": 248.04770018515728, "YES": 202.52282071983814}
Will Activision-Blizzard solve its reputational problems by the end of 2022?
0
1668382611931
UjjXOoTjvNPGA2pQJaXbjd3nmmZ2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 126.79491924311228, "YES": 73.20508075688772}
{"NO": 230, "YES": 208}
0
2.6693627841791674
True
play
NO
public
1640818947120
Sydney Yin
This market will resolve to Yes if, at the end of 2022, since October 1st, 2022 - No new news stories have been published about employee mistreatment - No new allegations by employees about harassment or mistreatment have been published - ABK Workers Alliance has made no specific demands and not taking any collective a...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 456.53735088547467, "YES": 463.4820923369855}
{"creatorFee": 0.4592536547631875, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 173.20508075688772, "YES": 99.99999999999999}
0
1668382611931
140
Skyedelaciel
1667454850245
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj1tbx0Tsb77aVS3rhaMDIkHOUw1S_xcAXCltiXRw=s96-c
25
1650313803087
0
1
26
1667454850146
1667312988416
0.11999999999999966
0.9637457469954268
7tr1eICbuKwUeR4dXJxW
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9637457469954268
will-the-james-webb-space-telescope
1843.2747505153945
{"NO": 85.72524948460546, "YES": 1555}
Will the James Webb Space Telescope send an image by March 1st, 2022?
0
1644766028439
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 59.163263264897864, "YES": 140.83673673510214}
{"NO": 86, "YES": 1555}
0
4.641914169551345
True
play
YES
public
1640820572774
Duncn
The James Webb Space Telescope plans to send its first image 33 days after launch. Will it send the first image by March 1st, 2022? Jan 9, 11:22am: #JamesWebb #space
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 350.29379910319483, "YES": 1807.0870754891735}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 77.45966692414838, "YES": 184.39088914585773}
0
1644766028439
100
Duncn
1640820572774
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
18
1715657632809
0
1644766017148
0.9637457469954268
0.003967962672892538
QIpx3W5nhQMhJCx3569l
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.003967962672892538
will-aliens-land-before-february-20
8269
{"NO": 8207, "YES": 62}
Will aliens land before February 2022?
0
1642110343041
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 181.7349502631302, "YES": 18.2650497368698}
{"NO": 8207, "YES": 62}
0
4.621006695470116
True
play
CANCEL
public
1640821315626
Duncn
Will aliens make physical contact, through controlled landing or crashing, on Earth or the ISS before on on the the last day of January 2022 (EST)? Jan 9, 11:21am: #fun #longshots #shortterm #aliens Jan 12, 5:58pm: There is a bug at work; this market may resolve N/A. #buggy
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 8452.18096114843, "YES": 533.4772722431576}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 198.997487421324, "YES": 20}
0
1642110343041
100
Duncn
1640821315626
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
22
1715658139185
0
[{"name": "Aliens", "slug": "aliens", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "FvhchmbPB3fymwvEFx0G", "createdTime": 1661373407191}]
["aliens"]
1642109633821
0.34145472518143305
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{"NO": 86.14027949250071, "YES": 959.3898697565908}
0
will-a-major-norwegian-political-pa-58167546884aa
2846.6755181086332
{"NO": 192.15401427318204, "YES": 90}
Will a Major Norwegian Political Party have Land Value Tax in their platform by the END of 2022?
0
1672531200000
fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 117.52193069391183, "YES": 82.47806930608817}
{"NO": 195, "YES": 90}
0
2.407150889520576
True
play
NO
public
1640826083616
Lars Doucet
{"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by DECEMBER 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, any major Norwegian Political party has mentioned \"Land Value Tax\" favorably on the section of their website that lays out their platform / list of supported policies. ...
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 403.01674094228866, "YES": 264.6696053573209}
{"creatorFee": 1.6651398610887558, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 163.70705543744901, "YES": 114.89125293076057}
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1672977269818
280
LarsDoucet
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0
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2
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[{"name": "Politics", "slug": "politics-default", "groupId": "UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "createdTime": 1658529502062}, {"name": "Georgism", "slug": "georgism", "groupId": "ooKwTVHIXlosW4sq8E5L", "createdTime": 1658529562858}, {"name": "Economics", "slug": "economics-default", "groupId": "p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "createdTim...
["georgism", "politics-default", "economics-default"]
1672284550823
1672071734653
0.04
0.3147103307568175
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{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.3147103307568175
will-the-predicted-chance-of-this-q
9240.605127168921
{"NO": 4618, "YES": 2661.394872831078}
Will the predicted chance of this question be above 67% on 8:00pm (EST) January 8th, 2022?
3580.000000000001
1641690014839
LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 4618, "YES": 3642.0000000000005}
0
4.621770026988806
True
play
NO
public
1640831866809
Duncn
Jan 3, 3:18pm: #meta
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 6203.59939726112, "YES": 4203.994627761136}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
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1641690014839
100
Duncn
1640831866809
0
https://firebasestorage.…4c9-5fe6ff48656d
21
1715657781235
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{"NO": 133.71144593001407, "YES": 473.6993670839892}
0
will-the-world-experience-a-solar-s
637.9472242171692
{"NO": 219.97596543914875, "YES": 11}
Will the world experience a solar storm with significantly negative "EMP" effects in 2022?
0
1672531200000
K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 175, "YES": 24.999999999999996}
{"NO": 220, "YES": 11}
0
10.086811273244678
True
play
NO
public
1640833575998
Eli Gaultney
This will resolve to 'yes' if A) we experience a solar storm AND B) the radiation knocks out a power grid anywhere in the world. I'll need to see sufficient evidence of B to be certain it wasn't something related to human error or coincidence. The best evidence would be _several_ areas going offline simultaneously.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 422.1602572320212, "YES": 86.72369918309528}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 197.9898987322333, "YES": 28.284271247461895}
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1673108803561
140
EliGaultney
1671140247555
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c
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1671140247083
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0.03313952933422272
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{"NO": 160.57489682388132, "YES": 132.09045147878695}
0
will-at-the-end-of-2022-western-tee
3015.8263061084294
{"NO": 627.4162662446796, "YES": 111.73488826451955}
Will, at the end of 2022 western teenagers spend more time in VR then in real live?
200
1672531200000
wveTqoPjF0ba8oSaSw7MR1RYQjo1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 653, "YES": 161}
0
9.054317896302216
True
play
NO
public
1640860916306
Christian Sterr
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 927.0741924463784, "YES": 141.8955824027128}
{"creatorFee": 0.22662995970972497, "platformFee": 9.995852841257146e-05, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
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1680826963808
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ChristianSterr
1680826975897
0
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1650314540026
0
20
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[{"name": "Virtual Reality", "slug": "virtual-reality", "userId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "groupId": "tHkKwsHjd8vhks1CL5oF", "createdTime": 1669870829049}, {"name": "Please Resolve", "slug": "please-resolve", "userId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "groupId": "HLWmbwGZ3vBHL8UjdtZF", "createdTime": 16760918939...
["virtual-reality", "please-resolve"]
1671140496226
1680826973247
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{"NO": 120.3153668527134, "YES": 272.0231523815534}
0
will-apple-reach-a-market-capitaliz
1978.0245972836406
{"NO": 131, "YES": 30.04853797103246}
Will Apple reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion by the end of 2022?
0
1672531200000
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 131, "YES": 30}
0
3.69340179099992
True
play
NO
public
1640870031279
BCG
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 318.28229588286626, "YES": 170.44772482656265}
{"creatorFee": 1.8915837672386995, "platformFee": 0.136306548414896, "liquidityFee": 0.8178392904893761}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1672977038651
140.81783929048936
BruceGrugett
1670081834406
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
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1650314649509
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2
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1670081833198
1663027609536
0.09
0.9861111111111112
VD255qA7EACVOfNRrSU5
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.9861111111111112
will-wurstcoin-take-off-in-2022
1000
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
Will Wurstcoin take off in 2022?
0
1640880827967
4SZcjxY74vZ5ctah3hKSQsutbEj1
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 0, "YES": 1000}
0
4.655925851497625
True
play
YES
public
1640870094607
Thomas Jungblut
Wurstcoin (https://wurstco.in/) is an up-and-coming ERC20 token. Will it win the hearts of the average ERC20 trader in 2022?
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 1191.6375287812984}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
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1640880827967
100
ThomasJungblut
1640870094607
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GitQuQzMF9NBKdRUWroS6GYGOqHFMmPNIXNxCn01Q0=s96-c
1
1715658241866
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0.4449907473966839
hLhWhotBtzylO2cjfH4O
{"NO": 37.724307343833175, "YES": 417.5067842339112}
1
will-the-sp-500-trade-below-3800-in
1385.1226783725588
{"NO": 290.38409100049705, "YES": 255.32652512815463}
Will the S&P 500 trade below 3800 in 2022?
199.99999999999997
1655139823517
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 110.1020514433644, "YES": 89.8979485566356}
{"NO": 346, "YES": 259.99999999999994}
0
3.2969386170860826
True
play
YES
public
1640870632372
BCG
This would be about 20% lower than 4793 (the value on December 30, 2021)
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 556.3902389046968, "YES": 496.3210184099453}
{"creatorFee": 5.090172329176434, "platformFee": 0.8483620548627391, "liquidityFee": 5.090172329176434}
{"NO": 154.9193338482967, "YES": 126.49110640673513}
0
1655139823517
105.09017232917643
BruceGrugett
1655139789194
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
10
1650314714324
0
1
1655139786522
0.8488325734432997
0.5528138702570009
ufsOW1kqvsd6iJ3wyQ5h
{"NO": 544.295791585986, "YES": 47.23726987604009}
1
will-the-us-inflation-rate-for-2022
1943.8152563709596
{"NO": 161, "YES": 289}
Will the US inflation rate for 2022 be lower than 6.8% ?
0
1673831675253
uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
{"NO": 161, "YES": 289}
0
2.847360081285612
True
play
YES
public
1640871074586
BCG
As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 6.8% is the inflation rate for 2021.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 428.55454728657355, "YES": 488.71361757168165}
{"creatorFee": 1.2727975837130912, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 141.4213562373095, "YES": 141.4213562373095}
0
1673831675253
180
BruceGrugett
1673831656673
0
https://firebasestorage.…832-adff2729ad86
0
25
1650314796480
0
1
26
1673591413292
1673831651659
0.93
0.14475035454056437
pMYviQdM304uGzDx8vsf
{"NO": 100, "YES": 100}
0.14475035454056437
will-ireland-introduce-further-covi
515
{"NO": 415, "YES": 100}
Will Ireland introduce further COVID restrictions before 00:01 on 04 Jan 2022
0
1641255691369
bBilVgGF9cYVJn8tOsP3uZOMTL43
cpmm-1
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
{"NO": 415, "YES": 100}
0
4.682668132942492
True
play
NO
public
1640875425276
Donal Hunt
This market will resolve to yes if any additional restrictions are introduced in Ireland before 00:01 UTC on 04 Jan 2022.
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 661.2299146287922, "YES": 272.02941017470886}
{"creatorFee": 0, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
0
1641255691369
100
DonalHunt
1640875425276
0
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhuAwuKEbH5tzhiyAcUCS7sx8fd2vFnTn3aNTv4I6Q=s96-c
3
1715658707598
0
0.11974305958935996
3Qodv8SlOn42NinZqVtM
{"NO": 96.52181290298263, "YES": 129.7243395498072}
0
will-aoc-challenge-chuck-schumer-in
410.24954634556195
{"NO": 196.75045365443796, "YES": 29.000000000000004}
Will AOC challenge Chuck Schumer in the 2022 Democratic Primary for Senator in New York?
60.00000000000003
1661425152004
uojtn6j3bPROELKDmRpZ90KLNWw2
cpmm-1
{"NO": 150, "YES": 50.00000000000001}
{"NO": 199.00000000000003, "YES": 29.000000000000004}
0
6.586956754143716
True
play
NO
public
1640884946652
Mosiah
BINARY
{"day": 0, "week": 0, "month": 0}
0
{"NO": 399.43582888593426, "YES": 147.3219519167309}
{"creatorFee": 0.2756604501929202, "platformFee": 0, "liquidityFee": 0}
{"NO": 189.73665961010275, "YES": 63.2455532033676}
0
1661425152004
100
Mosiah
1661418935393
0
https://firebasestorage.…0eb-ac055f9cc617
10
1650313787601
0
1
11
1661418935175
1661387305035
0.09191211821311898