[Aftab] Pureval’s lobbying firm made millions helping Libya reduce payments owed to families of Americans killed by Libyan terrorism. Selling out Americans? Aftab Pureval can’t be trusted.

crime, health care, Libya, lobbying, medicare-for-all, terrorism,

Congressional Leadership Fund, the highest-spending super PAC seeking to sway House races in the upcoming midterms, has been flooding TV airwaves around the country with ads attacking Democrats running in close races. But we found that some of those ads are misleading.Congressional Leadership Fund, which bills itself as “the super PAC endorsed by House Republican leadership,” is by far the biggest-spending super PAC attempting to influence races in the upcoming November elections. It announced in early October that it had surpassed its $100 million fundraising goal to help elect Republicans to the House in the midterm elections. To date, the group says it has amassed a war chest of $132 million.All four of the House races we write about here are rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report.An ad CLF is running in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District misleadingly suggests that Democratic candidate Aftab Pureval, in his work “at a D.C. lobbying firm,” was “selling out Americans” because the firm “made millions helping Libya reduce payments owed to families of Americans killed by Libyan terrorism.”Pureval worked at a large law firm that does a bit of lobbying work. But he never did any lobbying work for the firm. Nor was he involved with a settlement the firm helped to negotiate on behalf of the Libyan government to compensate victims of terrorism. Furthermore, Pureval’s opponent, as a member of the House, signed off on the deal.The narrator of the ad begins by saying, “Politician Aftab Pureval will say anything to get elected.” The ad then cuts to a clip of Pureval in an ad saying, “The special interests and lobbyists rig the game to benefit themselves.”“Pureval should know,” the narrator continues. “He worked at a D.C. lobbying firm. But worse than Pureval’s lies is his hypocrisy. Pureval’s lobbying firm made millions helping Libya reduce payments owed to families of Americans killed by Libyan terrorism. Selling out Americans? Aftab Pureval can’t be trusted.”After graduating from the University of Cincinnati Law School in 2008, Pureval was hired that September by White & Case, a large global law firm that, like many large law firms, also does some lobbying work. Pureval, however, was never a lobbyist, and he did no lobbying for the firm. Rather, he acted as an antitrust associate, his campaign said. The Lobbying Disclosure Act database shows no record that Pureval has ever been a registered lobbyist.Prior to Pureval joining White & Case, the New York-based law firm was hired by the Libyan government under the late dictator Moammar Gadhafi to help reach a settlement to compensate victims of several terrorist attacks, including the 1988 bombing of Pan-Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. A settlement that would pay those victims $1.5 billion was approved by then-President George W. Bush a month before Pureval joined White & Case.The settlement agreement was approved in the House by consent without objection. Among those who did not object was Rep. Steve Chabot, Pureval’s opponent in the House race. The Libyan Claims Resolution Act also passed the Senate by unanimous consent and was signed by President Bush on Aug. 4, 2008 (a month before Pureval joined White & Case).Pureval’s campaign said Pureval never worked on the settlement. In fact, Pureval never worked on any matter having to do with Libya, his campaign said. And as the Cincinnati Enquirer noted, Pureval was not one of the three White & Case attorneys who registered as foreign agents and submitted expenses related to representing Libya in 2008, according to Justice Department records. Pureval is not listed as a foreign agent for any country in the Department of Justice’s Foreign Agents Registration Act database.CLF unleashed two misleading attack ads against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is facing incumbent Republican Rep. Dave Brat for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District seat.The first ad portrays Spanberger as being in lockstep with House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi — whom Spanberger says she would not support to be speaker of the House if Democrats regained control of the House — and claims she would vote for a Medicare for All bill that Spanberger has said she does not support.“As a mom of two, I’m in charge of balancing my family’s budget,” Susan Beals of Midloathian, Virginia, says in the ad. “That’s why I can’t support Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger joined Nancy Pelosi to oppose the $2,000 middle class tax cut. And Spanberger would vote with Pelosi for a $32 trillion government takeover of health care, nearly doubling the debt. Spanberger and Pelosi would raise our taxes and put America deeper in debt.”The “$2,000 middle class tax cut” refers to Spanberger’s opposition to the 2017 Republican tax law. Though that shorthand to describe the tax plan is a regular Republican talking point, a Tax Policy Center analysis of the plan found that the average tax cut would amount to $380 a year for those in the second income quintile, $930 for those in the middle quintile, and $1,810 for those in the fourth quintile. As for the effect for a typical middle-income family, as we wrote in March, the Tax Policy Center calculated that a family of four with two young children and an adjusted gross income of $75,000 would see a tax savings of $2,119 in 2018. But the savings would be nearly half that ($1,119) for a couple earning the same amount but with two older children, 17 and 18 years old. And by 2027, both of the couples would be paying $150 more in taxes, the Tax Policy Center said, because most of the personal income tax cuts are set to expire that year.As for the ad’s suggestion that Spanberger would be in lockstep with Pelosi, Real Clear Politics noted that in an April interview, Spanberger praised Pelosi but said she would “very much like to vote for someone else” to lead the Democrats in the House. It’s true that the House Majority PAC — a PAC with ties to Pelosi — is running ads in support of Spanberger, but she told NBC News in August, “Under no circumstances, would I vote for Nancy Pelosi to again be speaker of the House.”The ad’s claim that Spanberger would “vote with Pelosi for a $32 trillion government takeover of health care, nearly doubling the debt,” is a reference to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for All Act, which would expand Medicare into a universal health insurance program.An Urban Institute analysis of an earlier version of Sanders’ plan — which is cited in the ad — concluded it would increase federal expenditures by about $32 trillion over 10 years (though it concluded overall national health expenditures would increase by $6.6 trillion over that period). Whether the federal debt would double depends on how the plan is offset by increased taxes, though the Urban Institute says the tax revenues suggested by Sanders so far are “much too low to fully finance the plan.”But Spanberger doesn’t support that plan. She told USA Today in August she opposed “a government-run single-payer health care system,” and she told Richmond2Day in August: “The single-payer bill that is currently before Congress is not one that I currently support.”Rather, as she has stated repeatedly throughout her campaign, she supports the Medicare-X Choice Act, which would offer a public plan option based on Medicare to those under age 65 who buy coverage through the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces.CLF points to an interview in January in which Spanberger said, “I think that single-payer is a really great direction to go towards.” But her fuller answer (starting at the 24-minute mark) was that: “Whether or not we are ready if the Democrats take Congress in 2018 to fully move towards a single-payer system, that I’m not sure about.”Spanberger said her “goal is to ensure that as many people as possible – that everyone – has access to affordable, quality health care. And that’s full stop, my goal.” She added that in order to provide stability to the health care system, she wants to “make sure that any legislation we can reach really does have a significant amount of bipartisan support.”Another CLF ad targeting Spanberger attempts to tie her to an Islamic school in suburban Washington, D.C., once dubbed “Terror High” because one of its students aligned with al Qaeda years after graduating. “As a mom, nothing’s more important than my family’s safety,” Lane Carr, of Henrico, Virginia, says in the ad. “Abigail Spanberger is a risk we can’t afford. Spanberger taught at an Islamic school called Terror High, a school so radical one graduate tried to kill President Bush.”It’s true that Spanberger spent a year as a long-term substitute teacher of AP English at ISA, an Islamic School funded by the Embassy of Saudi Arabia. And it’s also true that a one-time valedictorian of the school, Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, was later convicted of joining al Qaeda and plotting to assassinate then-President George W. Bush.But it’s beyond a stretch to call Spanberger a “risk,” as the ad does, because of her brief employment as a substitute teacher at the school. In 2002, after graduating from business school, Spanberger applied for employment with the CIA and received a conditional offer to serve in the National Clandestine Service, her campaign said. As she awaited background clearance, which can sometimes take years, Spanberger discussed a substitute teaching position at the school with CIA recruiters, and the CIA was fully aware of her employment. After teaching at the school from December 2002 to December 2003, Spanberger took a job as a federal law enforcement officer at the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, and then in 2006 began working for the CIA on counterterrorism and nuclear-related issues.Ahmed Omar Abu Ali, who is serving a life sentence, graduated from the school several years before Spanberger was a teacher there. And his arrest came after she had left the school.“For a Republican Super PAC to question my national security credentials and integrity based on the time I spent as a long-term substitute, teaching English to children at an embassy school in Northern Virginia, is desperate and weak,” Spanberger said in a statement provided to FactCheck.org. “The CIA hired me, gave me a Top Secret//SCI security clearance, and trusted me with some of our nation’s greatest secrets in part because of my engagement with and knowledge of other languages, perspectives, and cultures. I drew on this knowledge every day at CIA — doing so made me a strong operations officer.”The ad also says Spanberger “supported the Iranian deal, giving billions to the leading sponsor of terrorism.” That’s based on a tweet from Spanberger on May 8 in which she stated, “The decision to abandon #IranianNuclearDeal without cause hurts US credibility across the world & erodes the trust necessary to maintain the diplomatic & intelligence efforts that keep our country safe.”But opposing the abandonment of the deal, which unfroze billions in Iranian assets, is different from supporting the deal at the time. Indeed several congressional leaders, Republicans and Democrats, opposed the Iran deal struck by President Barack Obama, but later opposed Trump’s withdrawal from the deal because they worried about the perception that the U.S. reneges on settled negotiations.CLF notes that her comments in a Facebook post explaining her opposition to Trump’s decision to end the deal sounded supportive of it.Spanberger, May 8: The Iranian nuclear deal, officially the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, took 20 months for diplomats from the P5+1 countries to negotiate. The purpose of this agreement was to make the world safer by bringing countries together to address the threat of a nuclear Iran and compel Iran to accept restrictions on its nuclear program. According to ALL accounts, the agreement was working.Spanberger’s campaign says she was collecting intelligence for military advisers when the deal was negotiated, and took no position on it at that time.In Washington’s 8th District, CLF is running a misleading ad against Democrat Kim Schrier on taxes.It says, “We’ve already got the fourth highest sales tax rate in the nation. And Kim Schrier, she’d make it much worse. Schrier supports a state income tax.” It goes on to say that Schrier supports “an energy tax, raising our electric bills and gas prices.”In making its claim that Schrier supports a state income tax, the ad cites one line she wrote in a candidate questionnaire, in which she said: “Here in Washington state, we need to address our regressive tax system and move toward a progressive income tax.”Washington has no income tax and instead relies on a high sales tax, which is considered a regressive tax because it takes a larger percentage of income from low-income groups than from high-income groups. Income taxes, on the other hand, typically impose higher tax rates on higher-income people.There’s no actual state tax plan from Schrier to evaluate, so we cannot determine whether a new tax system would make Washington’s taxes “much worse,” even when coupled with an “energy tax.” The ad simply assumes that.Schrier didn’t say she supported an income tax on top of the state’s sales taxes, as the ad suggests. An overhaul of the state’s sales-tax-based system might make taxes “worse” for some but not for others. Typically, changing tax types or rates would lead to lower taxes for some individuals and higher taxes for others.It’s also worth noting that Schrier is running for the U.S. Congress, where she would have no authority over state tax decisions. Schrier is running against Republican Dino Rossi for the open House seat.In her candidate questionnaire, Schrier addressed federal taxes, where she would have some control if elected.“From the federal level, we need to make sure everyone pays their fair share, including making sure that any tax cuts go to the middle class and that we remove the loopholes that benefit high-earners,” she wrote.The ad then says that Schrier supports “an energy tax, raising our electric bills and gas prices.” That claim is based on a candidate forum in March in which she raised a green “yes” card when the host of the forum said: “I support the carbon tax recently voted down in the Washington legislature.” (See the 53-minute mark of the video. )The state proposal, which didn’t succeed this year, called for a tax of $12 per metric ton of carbon emissions on fossil fuels, an amount that would increase until it hit $30 in 2030. The Washington Policy Center, an independent think tank that promotes “public policy based on free-market solutions” and opposed the legislation, said that for households that drive about 25,674 miles a year, that would amount to $150 in 2019 in higher gas prices (and $376 in 2029) and that the average family would pay $12 more in 2019 for electricity. The bill called for financial assistance to mitigate the impact on low-income households.Again, it’s not possible to evaluate whether a carbon tax coupled with a new, but undefined, progressive income tax would make taxes “much worse” for residents of Washington and, if so, for whom.Voters will consider a state ballot initiative in November to enact a carbon fee.In an ad attacking Brendan Kelly, who is challenging Republican incumbent Mike Bost in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District, the Congressional Leadership Fund claims that Kelly — the St. Clair County state’s attorney — “cut plea deals that put violent criminals into our neighborhoods.” On-screen text says: “50% of crimes pled out.”But that message lacks both accuracy and critical context about the use of plea deals.Actually, 64 percent of the felony cases in St. Clair County under Kelly resulted in guilty pleas, according to our review of the Illinois annual court reports between 2011 and 2016. (Kelly assumed the position at the end of 2010.) That figure isn’t much higher than the 61 percent plea-deal rate we found for felony cases statewide in Illinois during the same period. St. Clair’s rate also is roughly in line with the rates seen in 2016 for five surrounding counties. Either way, the use of plea bargaining to dispose of cases is to be expected, said Theodore Wilson, an assistant professor of criminal justice at the University of Albany. Wilson told us that there are two primary avenues used to resolve cases: “Guilty pleas and then case dismissals.”The vast majority of the felony cases that ended in convictions between 2011 and 2016 in St. Clair County were secured by guilty pleas: 98 percent, according to the state’s annual court reports. Wilson said that isn’t far from the norm. He pointed to an estimate, cited by former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy in a 2012 decision, that “94 percent of state convictions are the result of guilty pleas.”“Prosecutors don’t know exactly what will happen if they take a case to trial,” Wilson said. He noted that a “plea deal often times involves punishment — where you’re going to be incarcerated or put on probation, at risk of incarceration.”And Wilson cautioned that “a single number without context is misleading.” The rate of plea deals, he said, doesn’t offer insight into the severity of the sentences in each of the cases. The ad does accurately point to a case in which a man found guilty of sexually assaulting two teenage girls was sentenced to three-and-a-half years probation. The Belleville News-Democrat, which reported that the man was a “family member” of one of the minors “at the time of the conduct,” quoted Kelly as saying the terms of the sentence were what the victim preferred “under the circumstances.”Another ad from CLF claims that “Kelly let rape cases go unpunished,” citing an investigation that the News-Democrat published in 2015. The newspaper’s investigation found that, between 2005 and 2013, “82 percent of the total rape reports made to police” in St. Clair County did not result in charges being filed. It should be noted, though, that Kelly took office at the end of 2010, and the newspaper found that the number of sex crime charges being filed in 2012 and 2013 had increased. Kelly also announced protocol changes in response to the newspaper’s revelations.To support the assertion that Kelly “cut plea deals allowing violent criminals to walk free,” the ad cites a case in which a man convicted of killing his daughter’s mother had twice before been charged with battery against the victim, but received probation. After the slaying, Kelly told the Associated Press that the victim had lobbied for probation despite receiving earlier court protections from him. “I don’t know if it was because of the baby or what,” her mother, Cathy McGolson, said to the AP at the time. “Every time I asked her if something was wrong, she just told me everything was fine.”Another case cited involved an HIV-positive teacher who pleaded guilty to sexually assaulting a student. The deal allowed for the dismissal of some charges, and the teacher was sentenced to 36 months of probation.Kelly campaign manager Sam Barrett declined to comment on specific cases but pointed us to the candidate’s work leading an Illinois task force that eyed improvements to sexual assault prosecutions, and his support of a measure that ended the statutes of limitations for child sex crimes.The same ad also tells viewers that “Kelly even said it wasn’t his job to win convictions.” That quote is taken out of context. In a video interview with the News-Democrat, Kelly said: “As prosecutors, our goal is not a conviction. Our goal is not to make an example necessarily out of anybody. Our goal first and foremost is justice.”


People With Mild Cognitive Impairment Should Exercise Twice a Week, Research Says

Explanation: This brief article in U.S. News & World Report discusses recently published professional guidelines for treating a condition of aging known as “mild cognitive impairment” (MCI) with regular moderate exercise. As the article itself notes, scientists and physicians “gush” endlessly about the benefits of exercise for seemingly everything, and now for MCI. However, the story didn’t make it clear that this recommendation is based upon just two studies, both short-term. Nor did it give us a sense of the scope of the benefits. Does exercise help a little? A lot? The rapidly growing numbers of people diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia are clearly causes for genuine concern and even alarm in the United States. Beyond the human costs are the financial burdens on families and the overall health care system. And the persistent failure of hoped-for benefits from clinical trials of  drugs has added to the drumbeat of worry. As a consequence, those with symptoms of MCI (which may or may not be linked to the onset of actual AD or dementia), may turn to “alternative” interventions such as diets and dietary supplements, “brain training” with crossword puzzles, and exercise. Because exercise has been demonstrated to have specific and non-specific physical and psychological benefits for many people, it’s no surprise at all that guidelines from a respected journal suggesting that moderate regular exercise can improve memory would be of interest. But when the ability to summarize the precise impact of exercise is muted at best; and when the potential exists for “victim blaming” among those who fail to exercise, journalists should take great care in promoting such guidelines.

Exercise in general is affordable, even free, for most people, though it can be challenging for some people if it requires access to a gym or non-inclement weather. The story doesn’t discuss to what extent exercise is beneficial, so readers aren’t given a sense of scope of the benefits. (If the new guidelines don’t explain the scope of the benefits, the story needs to make that clear.) The story also doesn’t explain what kind of exercise they’re talking about (weight training, running, Zumba?) or how long people need to exercise to benefit. Since this is targeted at older adults who might have medical conditions or other factors that put them at risk of falls or other injury, the story should have at least carried a caution to consult with a doctor before initiating a new exercise routine. The story briefly explains the guidelines are based on “six-month studies.” Looking at the published paper itself, it appears they were based on a total of two short studies (both under 6 months) that showed twice-weekly exercise “is likely to improve cognitive measures.” Long-term improvements are unknown. These details were needed. No mongering, here. The article states the facts and estimates about the prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and its symptoms pretty well, and duly notes the difference between MCI and dementia. No people were quoted or cited. Potential conflicts of interest were not discussed, though they are disclosed in the guidelines. The story acknowledged the lack of alternatives: The guidelines note that no Food and Drug Administration-approved medications exist for mild cognitive impairment treatment, nor are high-quality, long-term studies in the works that imply drugs or dietary changes could aid people who have the condition. For the most part, exercise is widely available. The news peg is that the Academy of Neurology updated its guidelines, which is a legitimate starting point for many health-related articles. This story makes that clear. This is a just-barely satisfactory. The story used some similar passages (though not verbatim) to a news release, and also cites an LA Times story in lieu of reporting. Stronger sourcing would have improved the story.


Earthquake in Turkey-Iran border region kills nine, injures more than 100.

Explanation: Nine people were killed and buildings collapsed across southeastern Turkey on Sunday when a magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck near the border with Iran, injuring more than a hundred in villages and towns in both countries, government officials said.

In Turkey, three of the dead were children, and 50 people were injured, including nine critically, the health ministry said. The shallow tremor caused more than 1,000 buildings to collapse in Turkey, prompting a brief rescue effort to find those trapped under rubble. The quake damaged buildings some 90 km (56 miles) to the west in the Turkish city of Van, and to the east in dozens of villages in Iran, where state TV said 75 people were injured including six in hospital. There were several aftershocks including a larger tremor measuring 6.0 magnitude that stuck nearby 10 hours later. There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties from that quake, which was also fairly shallow and potentially dangerous. Crisscrossed by major fault lines, Iran and Turkey are among the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. After the initial tremor, Turkish TV footage showed people digging with shovels and their hands in the rubble, as well as furniture and belongings strewn on cracked and snowy roads. In one village the ground cratered under several buildings, while in others residents were wrapped in blankets outside homes with crumbled and cracked exterior walls, fallen metal roofs and twisted wiring. “The damage caused loss of life,” the governor of Van, Mehmet Bilmez, told reporters standing in front of a pile of cinder blocks and sheet metal. “There is destruction in all four villages” he visited on Sunday morning, he added. The European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) said the quake, which hit at 8:53 a.m. (05:53 GMT), had a depth of 5 km (3.1 miles). The second big quake struck at 7:00 p.m.  Broadcasters and government officials said dozens of villages were rattled in Turkey. Nearly 150 tents were sent to shelter families in the region, where several schools in the districts of Baskale, Saray and Gurpinar sustained minor damage. Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) has begun rescue work in villages including in Ozpinar, about 25 km south of the epicenter, said Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu. AFAD measured the initial tremor at 5.9 magnitude. The U.S. Geological Survey put the epicenter 47 km west of the Iranian city of Khoy, where people felt the effects, according to state TV. An earthquake last month in eastern Turkey killed more than 40 people while another in Iran did structural damage to homes without causing any fatalities. An Iranian official told state TV that rescue teams had been dispatched to the area in Iran’s West Azarbaijan province. Another local official said the earthquake was felt in several towns including Urmiah and Salmas, and many villages including some that suffered “100% damage”, state TV reported.


People who have survived the COVID-19 coronavirus disease can become reinfected by the virus.

Explanation: A coronavirus infection’s going into a “dormant” stage and then re-emerging was another possibility for explaining the appearance of reinfection suggested by Dr. Philip M. Tierno, Clinical Professor of Microbiology and Pathology at at New York University: “Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant with minimal symptoms. And then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs.”

As the world grappled with the COVID-19 coronavirus disease pandemic in early 2020, people around the globe began to consider the dread possibility that COVID-19 might not only be more infectious and have a much higher mortality rate than the seasonal flu, but that at least some persons who survived  it might become reinfected rather than developing an immunity to it. A few reports have trickled in from around the world suggesting that someone who had COVID-19 recovered and then fell ill with it again, such as the following account from China:  Mr. Wang, a resident of Xuzhou, in Jiangsu province, appeared to have emerged victorious from a monthlong battle with the illness. Three days later, though, Wang tested positive for the coronavirus again. He was re-hospitalized and his neighbors were locked down once more. His current condition is unknown. Wang, whose full name has not been disclosed for privacy reasons, is one of more than 100 reported cases of Chinese patients who have been released from hospitals as survivors of the new coronavirus — only to test positive for it a second time in the bewildering math of this mysterious illness. However, at this juncture it’s difficult to determine whether such reports document that fully recovered COVID-19 patients truly became infected anew, or whether those persons may have relapsed or not completely recovered from their first bout of the illness. Problems with diagnostic testing techniques have been raised as one possibility to explain why some patients might have retested positive for COVID-19 after seemingly recovering:  [Such cases] are raising questions in China about the reliability of diagnostic tests, the possibility of reinfection and whether patients are wrongly designated as “recovered” and released too early from hospitals. Scientists in and outside China agree that reinfection is a highly unlikely explanation for the patients who retest positive. They say testing errors are more likely to blame — either false negatives that resulted in patients being discharged too early, or false positives when they retested and were taken back into hospital. Those errors could be attributed to contaminated test samples, human error while taking swabs, or an oversensitive nucleic acid test that detects strands of virus. The Los Angeles Times quoted Dr. Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, as saying that COVID-19 reinfection was unlikely and that false positives in testing procedures were a more likely possibility:  “If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,” he said. “To get reinfected again when you’re in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right.” What’s more likely is that people are being released from hospitals while still carrying dormant fragments of the disease that are not infectious but resemble the virus when put through a nucleic acid test, he said. “The test may be positive, but the infection is not there,” he said  Dr. Clifford Lane, deputy director for Clinical Research and Special Projects at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was also quoted as suggesting that the real issue was with inaccuracies in testing patients who had not fully recovered rather than with reinfection:  Another possibility is that the level of virus fell below the threshold that tests could detect but then resurfaced, [Lane] said. “So it looks like [some patients] cleared the virus and then the virus came back,” Lane said. “But they never really cleared it and they had a more prolonged course of infection.” Lane was one of only two U.S. experts in a World Health Organization delegation that visited China in February. He said Chinese experts told the visitors that there were no examples of people who became “reinfected.”


Private prisons sue states for millions of dollars if "lockup quotas" are not met, incentivizing incarceration.

Explanation: Are Private Prisons Suing States for Millions of Contract Quotas?

A long-popular October 2018 Facebook post continued spreading through late 2019, alleging that private prisons were suing states over unmet contract quotas promising a minimum number of profitable inmates.A status update read “SO WE JUST NOT GOING TO TALK ABOUT IT!” Alongside that commentary was the following image of an unidentified print article, suggesting that the clipping was reported as news in a newspaper:A June 2015 post to Reddit’s r/politics featured the same headline with additional content:Private prisons suing states for millions if they don’t stay full: "Those quotas can range from a mandatory occupancy of, for example, 70 percent occupancy in California to up to 100 percent in some prisons in Arizona." from politicsThat post linked to an editorial dated September 26 2013, published by the site RollingOut.com. RollingOut.com did not feature an “about” page or a masthead, and we were unable to find any information via the site itself about the nature of its content.In contrast with the newspaper-style version in the image, the actual title of the piece was:What?!? Private prisons suing states for millions if they don’t stay fullA subheading matched the image:Low crime rates bad for business for private prisons; they demand states keep them fullBased on the excerpted portion in the image, it seems reasonable to conclude that the piece reported on lawsuits lodged by private prisons against state governments after those governments failed to meet incarceration “lockup quotas,” since the headline claimed that private prisons were “suing states for millions if they don’t stay full.”But what the article actually went on to say was:The prison-industrial complex is so out of control that private prisons have the sheer audacity to order states to keep beds full or face their wrath with stiff financial penalties, according to reports. Private prisons in some states have language in their contracts that state if they fall below a certain percentage of capacity that the states must pay the private prisons millions of dollars, lest they face a lawsuit for millions more.It would be reasonable to presume the claims were predicated on the existence of specific contracts with specific language mandating prisoner quotas, and that failure to meet those quotas resulted in private prisons suing state governments. However, that very first paragraph contained the slippery phrasing “according to reports” without mentioning whose, and the piece’s sole mention of lawsuits seemed to be speculative in tone (“lest they face…”)RollingOut.com went on to reference (but not link anything related to) an investigation by a group called In the Public Interest; the article itself was written by a staffer who mainly covered entertainment. It mentioned a purported offer made by Corrections Corporation of America (CCA, now rebranded as CoreCivic) in 2012 “to governors of 48 states to operate their prisons on 20-year contracts.” Whether that offer was accepted or resulted in any business between the corporation and any or all 48 states was not reported.The story continued:In the Public Interest has reviewed more than 60 contracts between private prison companies and state and local governments across the country, and found language mentioning “quotas” for prisoners in nearly two-thirds of those contracts reviewed. Those quotas can range from a mandatory occupancy of, for example, 70 percent occupancy in California to up to 100 percent in some prisons in Arizona.… The offer included a demand that those prisons remain 90 percent full for the duration of the operating agreement. You know what that means: if there are not enough prisoners then there will be an unspoken push for police to arrest more people and to have the courts send more to prison for petty, frivolous and nonviolent crimes. There will also be a “nudge” for judges to hand down longer or maximum sentences to satisfy this “quota.”… When the crime rate drops so low that the occupancy requirements can’t be met, taxpayers are left footing the bill for unused facilities.The report found that 41 of 62 contracts reviewed contained occupancy requirements, with the highest occupancy rates found in Arizona, Oklahoma and Virginia.Despite the headline claims of “private prisons suing states for millions,” initially the article softened its claims to “lest [states] face” the purported lawsuits. In the Public Interest’s research purportedly “found language mentioning ‘quotas'” in some contracts they reviewed, but there was no information about whether those quotas were acted upon.Finally, the story contained a claim that the offer included a “demand” that private prisons remain 90 percent full for the agreement’s duration (assuming any agreement was adopted in the first place.) Immediately thereafter, they go on to reference “an unspoken push” for the arrest and incarceration of non-violent offenders, stacking inferences and presenting them as existing occurrences in a headline that remained viral years later.RollingOut.com’s editorial seemed to be based on a report from In the Public Interest titled “Criminal: How Lockup Quotas and “Low-Crime Taxes” Guarantee Profits for Private Prison Corporations.” As noted in the op-ed shown on Facebook, In the Public Interest maintained that the contracts included inmate quotas:65 percent of the private prison contracts ITPI received and analyzed included occupancy guarantees in the form of quotas or required payments for empty prison cells (a “low-crime tax”). These quotas and low-crime taxes put taxpayers on the hook for guaranteeing profits for private prison corporations.As the excerpt above shows, that was presented in the form of tax-funded shortfalls for under-occupancy prisons, not necessarily “private prisons suing states for millions” or convictions necessarily stemming from such contracts.In the Public Interest highlighted three particular states in which quotas proved either costly, high, or both:• Colorado: Though crime has dropped by a third in the past decade, an occupancy requirement covering three for-profit prisons has forced taxpayers to pay an additional $2 million. • Arizona: Three Arizona for-profit prison contracts have a staggering 100% quota, even though a 2012 analysis from Tucson Citizen shows that the company’s per-day charge for each prisoner has increased an average of 13.9% over the life of the contracts. • Ohio: A 20-year deal to privately operate the Lake Erie Correctional Institution includes a 90% quota, and has contributed to cutting corners on safety, including overcrowding, areas without secure doors and an increase in crime both inside the prison and the surrounding community.Neither the original report nor its attendant long-form version [PDF] mentioned private prisons suing or private prison lawsuits over contract quotas. In its longer report, the group fairly notes that prison quotas inherently provide incentives incarceration, but also force the public to bear the brunt of the risks of prison population variances:By contractually requiring states to guarantee payment for a large percentage of prison beds, the prison companies are able to protect themselves against fluctuations in the prison population. These provisions guarantee prison companies a consistent and regular revenue stream, insulating them from ordinary business risks. The financial risks are borne by the public, while the private corporations are guaranteed profits from taxpayer dollars.RollingOut.com said In the Public Interest “reviewed more than 60 contracts between private prison companies and state and local governments across the country,” suggesting that an emphasis on states and a widespread sample. In their report, ITPI said it “identified 77 county and state-level private facilities nationwide and collected and analyzed 62 contracts from these facilities.” Although there are 50 states in the US, there are 3,007 counties alone (not to mention other jurisdictions). Overall, any given state has an average of 62 counties; Texas alone has has 254.A large number of articles about prison quotas linked back to the 2013 ITPI report, citing its figures and details. One of those outlets was the Huffington Post, whose September 2013 report mentioned an instance of threatened legal action over unmet prison quotas:[In 2011, private prison company] Management & Training Corp., threatened to sue the state. A line in their contract guaranteed that the prison would remain 97 percent full. They argued they had lost nearly $10 million from the reduced inmate population.State officials renegotiated the contract, but ended up paying $3 million for empty beds as the company continued to address problems, according to state documents and local news accounts.Circumstances of that legal dispute were slightly more complicated, though, and they involved an inmate transfer after a larger dispute over alleged mismanagement of one facility. In the ensuing months, Arizona’s Department of Corrections rehoused 200 inmates and refused to honor a contract, alleging that the private prison was improperly administrated:In July 2010, three prisoners escaped from the Kingman facility, leading authorities on a two-week, multi-state manhunt that ended only after the escapees had brutally murdered an Oklahoma couple as they were driving through New Mexico. In the aftermath, the [Arizona Department of Corrections] found gross mismanagement at the Kingman prison complex, including malfunctioning alarms and other serious security breaches.ADC Director Charles Ryan ordered over 200 “high-risk” prisoners removed from the Kingman complex, stopped sending new prisoners to the facility for nearly a year while MTC addressed security lapses and refused to honor the state’s contract with the company, which included a 97% bed guarantee.In January 2011, MTC filed a claim against the ADC for failing to meet its contractual obligations related to the lockup quota, asking for almost $10 million to cover the company’s losses under the bed guarantee. State prison officials relented, agreed to honor the 97% quota beginning May 1, 2011 (although the empty beds were not filled by then) and paid MTC $3 million in damages.All of which is not to say that there are not broader disputes over the ethics of privatizing prisons. A 2016 documentary by filmmaker Ava DuVernay called 13th examined private prisons in general, and the intersection of “race, justice, and mass incarceration in the United States.”Similarly, the 2009 “kids-for-cash” scandal (resulting in a documentary of the same name) involved uncovered judicial corruption in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania. Before that corruption was uncovered, thousands of children were incarcerated across two private facilities. After the scheme came to light, two judges and a co-owner of the facilities were found guilty, and all juvenile convictions under one of the judges were expunged:The scope of the violations of the children’s rights in Luzerne County turned out to be more egregious than anyone could have imagined. From 2003 to 2008, the Luzerne County judicial corruption scandal altered the lives of more than 2500 children and involved more than 6000 cases. Over 50 percent of the children who appeared before Ciavarella lacked legal representation; 60 percent of these children were removed from their homes. Many of them were sent to one or both of the two facilities at the center of the corruption scandal. Believed to be the largest judicial corruption scandal in our history, the story was featured in a 2009 episode of ABC’s “20/20.”For their involvement in the “kids-for-cash” scandal, Judge Michael Conahan, the facilities’ former co-owner Robert Powell, and the developer Robert Mericle pled guilty to federal criminal charges; Judge Mark Ciavarella was found guilty of various federal crimes following his trial in 2011. In 2009, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court vacated the adjudications of all youth who appeared before Ciavarella between 2003-2008, dismissed their cases with prejudice and ordered all of their records expunged.The closure of a for-profit prison in New Mexico in 2017 due to low inmate populations was reported as having an adverse effect on the local economy. Private prisons can pull up stakes and leave town more easily when fewer inmates leads to reduced profit, leading to the loss of 200 jobs in that instance alone. Corrections officer job security is, of course, not a good reason to jail people, but state corrections officers might be likelier to obtain a transfer or reassignment, and the effects reverberated in the small jurisdiction:Following the company’s announcement [of the prison’s closure], the county released a statement lamenting the news. Two hundred prison employees would be laid off. The town of Estancia would lose $700,000 in annual tax and utility payments and the surrounding county, Torrance, would give up roughly $300,000. The sheriff’s office will have to find another facility to house the 50-75 county inmates usually held at the facility.Belinda Garland, the county manager, told Quartz that 200 jobs are a significant loss for the county, where the median household income is $32,000 ($12,000 less than the state overall). The money the prison brings in for the town is roughly 60% of its annual budget. This means cuts for schools, roads, the fire and police departments, among other services. “The county is very concerned with this closure,” she said.Prison privatization has also had an effect on immigration policy. An August 2018 report from criminal justice reform organization The Sentencing Project alluded to private prisons’ alarming impact on immigration and detention policy, with firm quotas in place:In 2002, approximately 4,800 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainees were held in privately run facilities. By 2017, that number had jumped to 26,249 people. This expansion of detention was influenced by a shift in immigration policy enforcement.Beginning in 2009, Congress established a quota for immigrant detention beds under appropriations law, requiring that the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) funding be linked to maintaining 33,400 immigration detention beds a day even if there were not a sufficient number of people in detention to fill them. By fiscal year 2013 the quota was raised to 34,000 beds. In 2014, a major influx of migrants from Central America led to an expansion of immigration detention under the Obama Administration. Individuals fleeing violence in Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala crossed the Southern border in search of asylum; many families were held in privately-run family detention centers. Incidents of assault, hunger protests, and medical neglect were reported at these facilities.A viral Facebook post depicted what looked like a newspaper article with the headline “Private prisons suing states for millions if they don’t stay full.” We found no indication that article was ever published in print, and its full text demonstrated a speculative view of the admittedly ethically dicey topic of private prisons. The ITPI report focused on the cost of quotas to state taxpayers versus the ephemeral and nebulous (but clearly incentivized) prospect of increased convictions to make up the contracted shortfall. Private prison quotas do exist, but typically result in taxpayer bills or prison closures if not met.The only instance of a private prison suing a state over “quotas” was a 2011 dispute between Arizona and a private prison company over a large transfer of prisoners following an escape.


Doctors: Nearly 8000 Malaria cases in Sudan province.

Explanation: Doctors in Sudan say the number of malaria cases in North Darfur province has climbed to nearly 8,000 people in less than a month.

Health, Sudan, General News, Africa, Malaria

They are warning that the outbreak in the country’s far-flung west may persist if the Sudanese government and international organizations do not intervene “immediately.” The Central Committee of Medical Laboratories, a union of the country’s pathologists, released the statement late Wednesday. The World Health Organization has previously said malaria cases were reported in several provinces of Sudan. Sudan is also facing a Cholera outbreak, following flash floods that swept the country in late August, affecting water sanitation. Last week, the U.N. humanitarian agency reported 124 suspected cholera cases and seven deaths. A rebellion in long-neglected Darfur was brutally suppressed in the 2000s.


Constant migraines may be from an unlikely culprit: a deviated septum

Explanation: This story advances the claims of a book author/ear, nose and throat surgeon who says that many patients with migraines actually suffer from migraine-like headaches caused by a deviated septum in the nose. While the idea sounds reasonable enough, what’s lacking here is evidence. Most problematic is that the story unquestioningly passes along the author’s claim — based entirely on his own practice data — that he has a 90% success rate when treating headache patients with deviated septums. That’s a statistic that will probably help sell lots of books and drive more patients to the author’s practice, but we doubt it accurately reflects the benefits that the typical patient can expect from this treatment. Also troubling is the story’s failure to mention any possible harms associated with the surgery promoted in the book. Considering that septoplasty itself can provoke new chronic pain in some patients, this omission is particularly glaring. Migraine headaches can have a huge impact on people who suffer with them and  these patients may seek out multiple treatments in the hope of finding some relief. When evaluating these therapies, journalists need to go beyond sources who stand to gain financially from promoting them, including book authors. The most important question to keep in mind is: Where is the evidence that they work?

While the story does mention costs, it does so in a superficial and potentially misleading way. First, any useful discussion of costs would have to include information about the costs of the CT scanning and surgery – costs t hat are not mentioned in the article. Second, claims that the book author’s approach is "cost-saving" are non-sensical given that the treatment implied by the article includes an MRI and referral to a specialist or two. Such profligate and unsupported waste of society’s resources flies in the face of claims of "cost-savings." The story relies entirely on Dr. Smith’s assertion that 90% of patients experience relief after repair of a deviated septum. But important questions remain unexplored. For example: How many patients are we talking about here — two or two hundred? And: How does Dr. Smith define "relief" — total absence of headaches or merely reduced headache frequency/intensity? In addition: What percentage of migraine-like headache sufferers are diagnosed with a deviated septum and would be candidates for surgery? And finally: How does septoplasty stack up against other forms of treatment or no treatment in controlled studies? We think that by failing to challenge in any way Dr. Smith’s estimate of a 90% success rate, readers are likely to come away with an exaggerated view of what this treatment can do for the average patient. The story mentions no potential harms from septoplasty or from CT scanning. This is a major error considering that some patients develop new chronic pain from the surgery itself and are left with daily intrusive pain. The surgery on balance may be harmful, especially if performed poorly or on the wrong patients, the incidence of the latter being likely to rise if many people read the book or this article. There also is growing evidence that unnecessary CT scans increase the risk of cancer. There was no evidence presented in this story beyond the anecdotal impressions of the book author, Dr. Smith. Smith says that in his experience, "some 90 percent" of patients have gotten headache relief after a deviated septum is repaired. But we can’t really tell if this is a ballpark guesstimate or a carefully conducted analysis of his practice statistics. If the latter, we might reasonably expect some discussion of how they selected patients, how the study was designed, whether there was a control group, or if any blinding or randomization was used. But the story provides none of these things. At the very least, the story should have cautioned that a case series from a single practice constitutes a very shaky evidence base, but again, it didn’t. Some problems here: Migraine headache is not defined in this article. In fact, the opening line is terribly vague:  "If you suffer from chronic or migraine headaches…." The word "migraine" implies to many readers that there is something special about the head pain the word describes. Migraine represents a small proportion of all head pain, and migraine that cannot be managed adequately without lifestyle changes or medications are rarer still. The reader of this article might assume their head pain is what the author is talking about, and it seems unlikely. Conversely, sinus pain is common, often easily diagnosed, and responds to many treatments. The article implies that MRI and referral to a neurologist are standard treatments for "migraine." Thankfully, this is not the case. Many people with head pain and /or migraine headache do very well without such interventions. Anyone with a book to promote is clearly going to have a strong financial incentive to advance their own interpretation of the evidence. And while this story did include a comment from one outside expert, presumably a radiologist, in this case the issue demanded some perspective from an expert on migraines– e.g. a neurologist or other pain specialist. This story didn’t provide that. This story didn’t mention any other approaches to treating migraines that don’t respond to initial therapy. The availability of surgery to correct a deviated septum is not in question, so we’ll rule this one not applicable. There’s nothing new here that merits a book or even a newspaper article. It is standard — repeat, standard — practice to rule out sinus conditions such as a deviated septum in the evaluation of persistent head pain. Although the story bears some similarity to a press release put out by Dr. Smith’s book publisher, we didn’t find any copy that was directly lifted from the press release. Since we can’t be sure to what extent the story relied on this release, we’ll rule it not applicable.


Explanation: Botox, or Botulinum Toxin Type A is typically regarded as a way to reduce fine lines and wrinkles. However, it is increasingly being used to treat disorders related to overactive muscles and twiching because of the temporary muscle paralysis that Botox causes. This story reports on a news release by Allergan, the manufacturer of Botox, about the results of a new study looking at Botox as a preventive measure for chronic migraine sufferers. This story does a commendable job outlining the evidence to support Botox use for this indication. It rightly points out that there are serious questions about the methodology and that the details of the study have not been made available. Furthermore, it accurately describes the availability and novelty of Botox and is careful to quote multiple, independent experts who provide valuable perspective. The story could have been improved by describing the costs of Botox injections, and mentioning possible harms or side effects and the alternative treatment options, of which there are many. Overall, a very well balanced and informative piece that could have easily gotten off course.

The study does not mention the costs of the injections nor does it comment on whether insurance would be likely to cover it for migraines. The story rightly points out that Botox did not signficantly reduce the number of headache episodes in the study but that it did reduce the number of days the patients said they suffered from headaches. Although the study does not quantify the difference, these data have not been released by the drug company. In all, the story did a good job of providing balance, by framing the results as being greeted with reactions ranging from "exhuberance to caution" which set a nice balanced tone from the start. The study does not mention any potential harms of botox injection. While the procedure is safe, there are some risks that would be important to mention and consumers should also be told that they should seek out a practitioner who is skilled and experienced in providing the injections. The story does a very good job of describing the strength of the available evidence, including the challenge of how to appropriately measure headache duration or severity. The story also rightly points out that the details of the current study have not yet been released. The story does not exagerrate the seriousness or prevalence of chronic migraines and is clear to repeatedly mention that chronic, severe migraines are the indication in question, not everyday garden-variety headaches. The story quotes multiple experts who provide valuable persepctive. The story does not mention alternative treatments for migraines, of which there are many. The story clearly states that Botox is available and FDA-approved for several other indications. Clearly Botox is not a new idea, but it is not approved to treat chronic migraines. Because the study quotes multiple independent experts, the reader can assume the story did not rely on a press release as the sole source of information.


In December 1915, San Diego agreed to pay $10,000 to "rainmaker" Charles Hatfield to bring an end to the region's drought; over the next few weeks the city was inundated by rain and suffered one of the worst floods in its history.

Explanation: Neither Hatfield nor his brother (and sometime assistant) Paul, who died in 1974, ever revealed his secret formula for making rain. All we really know about it to this day is that, according to Hatfield, it contained 23 different chemical ingredients and emitted fumes that bystanders said reminded them of Limburger cheese.

History, charles hatfield, drought, history meme

“The bigger the humbug, the better the people will like it,” P.T. Barnum once said. One of the best examples of that might be the life and career of Charles Hatfield, professional rainmaker, who is remembered as the man who summoned rain from the heavens to save San Diego from the drought it had suffered throughout most of 1915, only to be blamed afterward for one of the worst floods in the city’s history. Even now, his saga is recounted in Internet memes that don’t always get the facts straight and are often accompanied by images unrelated to Hatfield’s own endeavors (see the featured image above, which depicts an altogether different rainmaker at work), while still conveying the bitter irony of his single greatest claim to fame. Hatfield, who preferred the title “moisture accelerator” to “rainmaker,” set about rescuing San Diego by climbing the two 35-foot towers he had built outside the city limits and igniting a secret slurry of chemicals he claimed would extract moisture from the atmosphere and convert it to rain. The setup was similar to one he had used 11 years before in Los Angeles: Jan 12, 1958: Rainmaker Charles Hatfield died in #EagleRock. In 1904, LA paid him for 18″ of rain. @LATimesPhotos: https://t.co/DPdQqE8Dhq pic.twitter.com/JmRszVFc4H — LAhistory (@LAhistory) January 12, 2017  The verbal agreement he struck with the San Diego City Council in mid-December 1915 called for Hatfield to produce enough rainfall to fill the 15 billion-gallon Morena Reservoir within one year for a fee of $10,000 (equivalent to more than $200,000 today), on a “no rain, no pay” basis. No one had seen the reservoir completely full since it was built in 1897. The city figured it had nothing to lose. On or around 1 January 1916, puffs of smoke or vapor reportedly wafted skyward from the towers as Hatfield put his so-called “rain precipitation and attraction plant” into operation (at least one witness also reported hearing muffled explosions, although this detail has been disputed). Hints of precipitation, in the form of a light drizzle, were noted almost immediately. On 5 January it actually rained at Morena Reservoir, though not heavily enough to make a serious dent in the water level. But on 10 January, rain “of a genuinely remarkable quantity” started to fall, according to the San Diego History Center: For 24 hours in San Diego itself it rained off and on, but reports from the back country said it rained hard and almost continuously. From then until the 18th it was rainy weather. On the 14th it rained torrents and continued to rain heavily for several days. Roofs leaked. Storm drains that had not been taxed for years overflowed. On 17 January, the San Diego River overflowed its banks and flooded the Mission Valley. The Associated Press reported: Three days of steady rain has transformed the San Diego and Tijuana Rivers into raging torrents, the rapidly rising waters compelling hundreds of persons in the lowlands to abandon their homes. The Mission Valley, through which the San Diego River courses, is inundated for miles, while the flood waters of the Tijuana River threatened the new race track of the Lower California Jockey Club and submerged many homes at San Ysidro, a few miles south of this city. Charles Hatfield wasted no time claiming credit for the deluge, the Los Angeles Times reported on 20 January: Charles Hatfield telephoned to the City Hall today that in ten days he will have the Moreno [sic] reservoir full and will come to sign up his contract. He has a verbal contract with the City Council now for $10,000 if he causes the reservoir to be filled. He would brook no skepticism about his having caused the precipitation. “I understand the newspapers are saying I didn’t make the rain,” he told the San Diego Union. “All I have to say is that Morena has had 17½ inches of rain in the last five days and that beats any similar record for the place that I have been able to find.” The rains subsided for a few days then picked up again on 26 January as new storm fronts settled in over Southern California. The fresh downpour was so heavy it caused the Otay Dam southeast of San Diego to collapse on the 27th, flooding the Otay Valley and killing a reported 50 people (an estimate later revised downward to about 20). “No survivors and no corpses were discovered as the torrents had swept everything clean,” the San Bernardino News reported two days later. The catastrophe (which locals took to calling the “Hatfield Flood”) has been described by the National Weather Service as “the most destructive and deadly weather event in San Diego County history,” with damages approaching $8 million in 1916 dollars (the equivalent of almost $200 million today). Despite rumors that lynch mobs were looking for him, Hatfield set out from his Morena Reservoir campsite to San Diego City Hall to demand payment for his services. “The essence of my contract was to fill Morena Reservoir. That has been done,” he said in an appearance before the City Council on 17 February. “I have fulfilled my contract and I desire that the city should fulfill its contract to pay me $10,000.” Perhaps fearing the legal repercussions of acknowledging it played a role in bringing on the devastating storms, the city reneged, arguing that Hatfield did not have an enforceable contract with San Diego. He filed suit and indicated his willingness to accept a settlement, which prompted an offer from the city attorney to pay Hatfield the full amount of $10,000 if Hatfield would assume full legal responsibility for the flood and all the damage it caused. He turned it down. After many years in legal limbo, the lawsuit was eventually dismissed. Far from harming his reputation, the San Diego flood only increased the demand for Hatfield’s services. His rainmaking career would ultimately span almost 30 years, from 1902, when he first began devoting time off from his job selling sewing machines to the study of meteorology, into the early years of the Great Depression. But San Diego would always be his biggest claim to fame. Was Hatfield (and, by association, the San Diego City Council) really responsible for the massive January 1916 rainfall that almost destroyed San Diego? As far as the courts were concerned, the answer was no. A judge ruled in damage lawsuits filed against the city that the flooding was “an act of God.” Professional meteorologists didn’t buy Hatfield’s claim that he successfully manipulated the weather, either. Notices in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society regularly dismissed his efforts as “pseudo-scientific trickery.” Skeptics pointed out that the storm systems responsible for the flooding in San Diego County were actually quite vast, wreaking devastation throughout Southern California. A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report gives a sense of the scale: The rains that swept southern California in mid-January 1916, converted the streams into torrents that overran their banks and devastated wide areas of the most fertile land of the State. The rains were heaviest and the floods most disastrous in San Diego County, but they were also very heavy in parts of Riverside, San Bernardino, Los Angeles, and Ventura counties, and they wrought widespread ruin throughout the region that extends southward from Santa Clara River to the Mexican boundary, and westward from the north-south ranges of San Bernadino and San Diego counties to the ocean. Could Hatfield have accomplished all that by sending up fumes from his campsite at the edge of Morena Reservoir in San Diego? And it wasn’t just a question of scale. The timing of Hatfield’s endeavor was a bit suspect, as well. The month of January is smack in the middle of San Diego’s normal rainy season. If you’re betting on rain, bet on January. Even better, Hatfield’s proposal gave him a full year to accumulate enough rainfall to fill the reservoir. It seems unlikely that the choices he made that so greatly favored the odds of success were accidental. Despite insisting throughout his life that his methods were valid and scientific, the closest Hatfield ever came to explaining them was when he plied the press with self-promoting double-talk. “There is no magic in my method,” Hatfield assured Everybody’s Magazine in 1919, continuing: The problem involved in the production of rain by artificial means resolves itself into the matter of somewhat localizing the ever-present air-borne moisture and condensing it to the point of precipitation. To accomplish this I use certain chemicals, the character of which must naturally remain my secret. I work from towers about thirty-five feet high, on which I have great evaporating tanks. The fumes of the chemicals, by means of the heat I use, are mixed with the surrounding air, which results in what you may term an overturning of the atmosphere. This first produces clouds, cirrus clouds, the forerunners of rain-clouds. In a short time these cirrus clouds develop into a nimbus, or rain-cloud. Yes, it is all very simple. My system is not one of bombarding the heavens, nor do I merely trust to luck. You can understand that luck isn’t going to favor the same man something like five hundred times running. Charles Hatfield died in obscurity in Pearblossom, California in January 1958, at age 82 (his death wasn’t reported until three months later). Among the photographs taken of him in the last years of his life are publicity shots of Hatfield posing with the cast members of The Rainmaker, a 1956 film based on the play by N. Richard Nash, which was said to have been loosely inspired by the life of Charles Hatfield. He did not appear troubled by the fact that the title character in that drama (portrayed by Burt Lancaster in the movie) is a flamboyant con man.


New research to treat acute malnutrition

Explanation: This news release describes a study published in PLOS Medicine, showing that among moderate acute malnourished infants lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS)–a kind of fortified peanut butter–produced more gain in muscle and organ weight over 12 weeks than a corn-soy blend (CSB) porridge. Acute malnutrition affects over 50 million children across the world. It is characterized by bodily wasting following experience of a recent period of starvation. According to the researchers, until now there has been concern that because LNS has a very high fat content any weight gain it produced would be composed primarily of fat. The distinction of this study is its demonstration that LNS not only resulted in more weight gain, but that weight gain was in muscles and organs (lean mass) rather than fat. Children with the most severe level of acute malnutrition are at risk of death. Increasing the effectiveness of interventions with children before their malnutrition becomes severe could save millions of lives. However, readers would take away a better understanding of this critical issue if more space in this news release had been devoted to explaining the study itself, and less to citing various researchers and partners about how important the project was.

No comparison is made in the news release between the cost of the current corn-soy blend (CSB) nutrient supplement and the alternative lipid-based supplement. This is strange considering that the original study devotes some space to addressing the issue of cost-effectiveness. The researchers conclude that although LNS is about twice as expensive as CSB, the possibility that it could require a shorter treatment regimen, is easier to prepare, and has a longer shelf life could make it more cost-effective in the long run. They call for detailed cost-effectiveness studies to inform policy decisions, a point that goes unmentioned in the release. The primary outcome in this study was weight gain that was not primarily fat; it is important to note that this study did not address survival or neurodevelopment, which are the presumed benefits of greater fat-free weight gain. The news release tells us that children who received LNS gained more weight than children on the corn-soy porridge, and that weight was primarily lean mass. It doesn’t tell us how much more weight they gained, nor does it describe the difference in progression to severe acute malnutrition. Studies with large samples like this one can give results that are statistically significant even when differences are small. Specific information about the size and clinical importance of the difference should have been included. Many people’s first question upon reading about a peanut buttery kind of nutrient supplement might be whether it produced any allergic reaction or other side effects in infants. In fact, it didn’t, but the news release doesn’t tell us that. Readers are told there were two arms of the study, the treatment lasted for 12 weeks, and children’s lean mass was assessed afterward. It would have been better if the news release mentioned that children were randomly assigned to treatment. Nevertheless, the basics for understanding how the study was conducted are provided. No mongering here. It would be pretty much impossible to engage in disease mongering about acute malnutrition. The major funding sources for the study are listed, but financial relationships between two of the authors and Nutriset, a producer of LNS products, were not included in the release. According to the published study they are Nutriset patent holders. The study is all about comparing widely used alternatives about which there have been long standing questions of relative benefit. The news release assumes availability of both types of supplements, though no specific information is provided about how much each is currently used for treatment of moderate acute malnutrition in infants. This piece gives the impression that across the globe most current interventions for infants with moderate acute malnutrition use CSB as a nutritional supplement. The original study itself presents a somewhat different picture, noting that there is currently no consensus on which of the two food supplements is better, and citing a World Health Organization recommendation that more research needs to be done. The news release claims in the first paragraph that “corn-soy porridge should be replaced with  a lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS)” [emphasis ours]. The researchers in the original study are careful to qualify their recommendation with the need for a cost-effectiveness analysis as well as more study about the role of soy and milk in food supplements. We’d like to have seen correspondingly moderate claims in the news release.


Members of the Royal British Legion have been barred from selling poppies to commemorate Remembrance Day in certain areas for fear of "upset minorities.

Explanation: Recurring Disinformation Around Remembrance Day, Poppies, and ‘Upset Minorities’

An enduring piece of misinformation surrounding the Remembrance Day holiday and the Royal British Legion charity group resurfaced again in September 2019, despite the best efforts of fact-checkers the last few times the same exact disinformation appeared.One Facebook user amassed several thousand shares on the platform for regurgitating the long-debunked lie that members of the legion would not sell the commemorative poppy flowers “because some minorities say that it will upset them.”The rhetorically overheated, citation-free post read as follows:Some really shocking news. The Royal British Legian are not selling poppies in certain areas on Nov 11 this year. This is because some minorities say that it will upset them. I say sod off … The poppy is a symbol of reverence for our fallen heroes of all the wars the BRITISH military have fought in. WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON IN BRITAIN! BRITISH CITIZENS STAND UP AND SAY ‘WE WANT THE POPPY SOLD EVERY WHERE IN THE UK’. THIS IS OUR RIGHT TO REVERE OUR FALLEN.. PLEASE RE-POSTFar from being “shocking news,” the post is a claim that has been debunked many times, by many news outlets, for many years. It even recalls the equally xenophobic — and also thoroughly debunked — rumors about so-called “no-go zones,” where even trained law enforcement supposedly fears to tread, because certain ethnic groups have purportedly taken over specific areas. As we have already reported, this has not happened, and in fact the person who first made the claim has since apologized:Rumors of “no-go zones” throughout Europe have frightened many a far-right activist, at least judging by the amount of false stories that they seem to exhaustively share about such areas without any evidence to back up claims that they even exist.There is no evidence that they exist, because “no-go zones” are nothing more than a myth spun up and perpetuated by individuals who are presumably too nervous about going to these purported zones to see for themselves.Stories about these “no-go” areas were floating around on the fringes for years before they were brought into the mainstream by an American Fox News pundit named Steven Emerson, who made the claim on Fox News on January 11, 2015, just after an attack on the offices of French satirical publication Charlie Hebdo in which twelve people were murdered. […]For his part, Emerson issued an apology on his website and explained that he had used unreliable sources in making his comments about Birmingham:I have clearly made a terrible error for which I am deeply sorry. My comments about Birmingham were totally in error. And I am issuing this apology and correction for having made this comment about the beautiful city of Birmingham. I do not intend to justify or mitigate my mistake by stating that I had relied on other sources because I should have been much more careful. There was no excuse for making this mistake and I owe an apology to every resident of Birmingham. I am not going to make any excuses. I made an inexcusable error. And I am obligated to openly acknowledge that mistake. I wish to apologize for all residents of that great city of Birmingham.As the Royal British Legion told the British site FullFact:We are aware that there are statements online suggesting the poppy is not being offered in certain areas of the country. We’d like to reassure you that this is categorically untrue. We are proud to offer the poppy in every community in the UK — we always have been and always will be.Another fact-checking site, ThatsNonsense.com, broke down the nature of the lie in September 2015:Numerous variations of the above messages have circulated previously, but none of the them have been able to support their spurious claims that the Royal British Legion have ever been prohibited from selling poppies in any part of the UK because of causing offence to minorities.Such messages are an extension to the on-going far right narrative that claims ethnic minorities are destroying or diluting British culture, forcing their own own culture onto British people, or forcing British people to compromise on their own traditions or values. However, this narrative often relies on misinformation and propaganda to spread, and this is definitely the case with the above message concerning poppies.The significance of the poppy as a way to honor fallen service members dates back to World War I, when John McCrae, a lieutenant colonel in the Allied forces, noticed the bright red flowers continuing to bloom amid the fighting across France and Belgium. As the History Channel reported:McCrae wrote a poem, “In Flanders Field,” in which he channeled the voice of the fallen soldiers buried under those hardy poppies. Published in Punch magazine in late 1915, the poem would be used at countless memorial ceremonies, and became one of the most famous works of art to emerge from the Great War. Its fame had spread far and wide by the time McCrae himself died, from pneumonia and meningitis, in January 1918.McCrae’s poem sparked campaigns of solidarity in the United States, France, and throughout the United Kingdom. Shortly after forming in 1921, the Royal British Legion sold nine million poppies as part of a fundraising drive for housing and jobs for veterans. Since then they are worn every November 11, a holiday known as Armistice Day or Rememberance Day in several countries.“Wearing a poppy is still a very personal choice, reflecting individual experiences and personal memories,” the group said on its website. “It is never compulsory but is greatly appreciated by those who it is intended to support.”However, the rumors about “angry minorities,”which are as perennial now as many poppy species, are nothing more than disinformation and lies which emerged out of white supremacist far-right fever swamps, were laundered of their origins by groups such as UKIP and the Brexit Party, and are routinely pushed on the public by activists and politicians who personally or politically benefit from widespread xenophobia.


Seth Rogen, Bette Midler, and other Hollywood "liberal heroes" were arrested during an Oscar party drug raid.

Explanation: While the ceremony was not without its controversies (and conspiracy theories), this was not one of them.

Junk News, oscars, the last line of defense, thelastlineofdefense.org

On 26 February 2017, TheLastLineOfDefense.org published an article appearing to report that seven “liberal heroes” were arrested during an Oscar party drug raid: Oscar night is Hollywood’s big chance to come together to celebrate each others’ achievements, strut around in a million dollars worth of gowns and tuxedos, show the world how elitists rule our society and then get together for a drug-filled night of partying and debauchery afterward. This year, on the orders of our president, Hollywood would pay for sticking its nose up at our laws, denigrating the good name of our president and protecting the illegal aliens and terrorists we all want gone. […] Arrested in the raid were Allison Janney, Bradley Cooper, Bette Midler, Seth Rogan, Drew Barrymore, Miley Cyrus and Justin Timberlake. They were all charged with providing safe haven for drug abuse, possession of various classes of substances, resisting arrest and inciting violence against the government. The drugs seized at the different parties included cocaine, molly, ecstasy, marijuana, heroin and methamphetamine. Rogan’s party also had large quantities of powerful psychotropic drugs like LSD, MDMA and the ubiquitous brain chemical DMT. TheLastLineOfDefense.org has a long history of publishing fake news stories, and carries a disclaimer buried on its site advising readers that all of its content should be considered satirical: The Resistance may include information from sources that may or may not be reliable and facts that don’t necessarily exist. All articles should be considered satirical and any and all quotes attributed to actual people complete and total baloney. Pictures that represent actual people should be considered altered and not in any way real.


In the last ten years no one has died of measles in the U.S., but more than 100 people have died due to the MMR vaccine.

Explanation: Finally, the possibility of death is not the only reason one should (or should want to) vaccinate a child against measles. As the CDC notes in their measles fact sheet, in some children measles can lead to pneumonia, lifelong brain damage, and deafness.

During a then-current measles outbreak, on 4 February 2015 the alternative health site Health Impact News published an article claiming no one in the United States had died of the measles since 2003. Furthermore, the article stated, more than 100 people (mostly young children) had died after receiving the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. The article circulated widely during a time of increased debate over parental decisions about vaccinations, particularly among those who are opposed to the practice. In some iterations the statement was amended to specify “child deaths,” but the article itself stated there were zero deaths (among all age groups) from measles in the United States in the timeframe cited. That claim is inaccurate, as the CDC has reported that a Washington woman who passed away in early 2015 died from (an initially undetected) measles infection:  The death of a Clallam County woman this spring [2015] was due to an undetected measles infection that was discovered at autopsy. The woman was most likely exposed to measles at a local medical facility during a recent outbreak in Clallam County. She was there at the same time as a person who later developed a rash and was contagious for measles. The woman had several other health conditions and was on medications that contributed to a suppressed immune system. She didn’t have some of the common symptoms of measles such as a rash, so the infection wasn’t discovered until after her death. The cause of death was pneumonia due to measles. This tragic situation illustrates the importance of immunizing as many people as possible to provide a high level of community protection against measles. People with compromised immune systems often cannot be vaccinated against measles. Even when vaccinated, they may not have a good immune response when exposed to disease; they may be especially vulnerable to disease outbreaks. Public health officials recommend that everyone who is eligible for the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine get vaccinated so they can help protect themselves, their families, and the vulnerable people in their community. According to the World Health Organization, 145,000 people around the world died of measles in 2013 alone, and documents on the CDC web site also record two U.S. deaths from the measles in 2009, and another two deaths from measles in 2010. (Other sources, including the CDC, sometimes confusingly cite 2003 as the year of the last previous recorded measles death in the U.S. According to the CDC, that difference is due to the 2003 death being listed as “confirmed,” while the other cases have statuses of “reported” or “suspected” but not “confirmed.”) The Health Impact News article also failed to address the reason why measles killed so few Americans in the period cited. The glaring omission had a very specific root cause, namely measles elimination:  In 2000, the United States declared that measles was eliminated from this country. The United States was able to eliminate measles because it has a highly effective measles vaccine, a strong vaccination program that achieves high vaccine coverage in children and a strong public health system for detecting and responding to measles cases and outbreaks. Measles elimination is defined as the absence of continuous disease transmission for 12 months or more in a specific geographic area. Measles is no longer endemic (constantly present) in the United States. It stands to (very simple) reason a timespan beginning in 2004 (four years after measles elimination) and ending just before the late 2014 outbreak would see few (albeit not zero) deaths from measles, because the viral infection had been largely eliminated from the United States during the period specifically selected to illustrate the purported innocuous nature of measles. The second portion of the claim entailed deaths attributed directly to the MMR vaccine in the same period. Even if a minute number of fatalities were proved to have resulted from the MMR vaccine, it would still be impossible to accurately contrast that figure with deaths due to a disease no longer spreading in the United States during the period selected. That speculation itself, however, is a big “if.” According to the article, their figures for MMR deaths were culled from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), but VAERS does not exist to track specific and proved adverse reactions to vaccines. The purpose of the system is clearly denoted on the VAERS site (in a disclaimer not reproduced by the article spreading the claim):  When evaluating data from VAERS, it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established. Reports of all possible associations between vaccines and adverse events (possible side effects) are filed in VAERS. Therefore, VAERS collects data on any adverse event following vaccination, be it coincidental or truly caused by a vaccine. The report of an adverse event to VAERS is not documentation that a vaccine caused the event. Submission to VAERS alone is not evidence of vaccine-related injury or illness. The overwhelming majority of young children residing in the United States receive the MMR vaccine early in their lives, and a small number of those children have become ill (some fatally) due to reasons found to be unrelated to the vaccine. There is nothing to preclude individuals from submitting VAERS reports of sickness or death that are wholly unrelated to vaccines, and the system exists not to track substantiated incidents of vaccine injury but to identify potential trends in vaccine administration. Few people died of measles in the U.S. between 2004 and 2015 because measles was classified as eliminated in 2000. Relatively few people in the U.S. contracted the viral infection after that, so it stands to reason far fewer would go on to die of it. And while more than 100 reports of suspected adverse reaction or death may have been reported to VAERS in the years cited, that number references unconfirmed public reports, not verified vaccine-related fatalities.