Daily Papers

Classical supply chain risk models treat node failures as statistically independent events, systematically underestimating cascade probabilities when supplier dependencies are strongly correlated. At n=40 nodes, the full correlated failure distribution requires O(2^n) classical samples, a regime where exact simulation demands 17.6 TB of memory and over 369,000 hours of computation on a standard workstation. We present QR-SPPS (Quantum-Native Retail Shock Propagation and Policy Stress Simulator), a three-algorithm quantum pipeline implemented using the Qiskit framework with the Aer statevector_simulator backend. First, a 40-node, 4-tier retail supply network is encoded as a 40-qubit Ising Hamiltonian using OpenFermion QubitOperator, where ZZ coupling terms encode correlated cascade probabilities structurally absent from classical Monte Carlo. Second, a hardware-efficient VQE circuit finds the ground-state stress distribution with zero error, detecting entangled cascade failures in 14/40 nodes with max|ΔP|=0.637 versus classical Monte Carlo. Third, we introduce the first application of ADAPT-VQE gradient screening to counterfactual macroeconomic policy evaluation: six crisis interventions are ranked in O(1) Qiskit operator evaluations per policy, a 287x speedup over sequential VQE re-optimisation. Fourth, Density-of-States QPE (DOS-QPE) reconstructs the full eigenspectrum via 32-step Trotter evolution and introduces a novel mapping of the Boltzmann catastrophe probability P_cat(T) to VIX-equivalent market volatility temperature, enabling direct integration into regulatory Value-at-Risk frameworks. Qiskit Aer scaling benchmarks confirm exponential classical intractability at 40 qubits.

Variational quantum eigensolvers (VQEs) are among the most promising quantum algorithms for solving electronic structure problems in quantum chemistry, particularly during the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era. In this study, we investigate the capabilities and limitations of VQE algorithms implemented on current quantum hardware for determining molecular ground-state energies, focusing on the adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-Trotter ansatz VQE (ADAPT-VQE). To address the significant computational challenges posed by molecular Hamiltonians, we explore various strategies to simplify the Hamiltonian, optimize the ansatz, and improve classical parameter optimization through modifications of the COBYLA optimizer. These enhancements are integrated into a tailored quantum computing implementation designed to minimize the circuit depth and computational cost. Using benzene as a benchmark system, we demonstrate the application of these optimizations on an IBM quantum computer. Despite these improvements, our results highlight the limitations imposed by current quantum hardware, particularly the impact of quantum noise on state preparation and energy measurement. The noise levels in today's devices prevent meaningful evaluations of molecular Hamiltonians with sufficient accuracy to produce reliable quantum chemical insights. Finally, we extrapolate the requirements for future quantum hardware to enable practical and scalable quantum chemistry calculations using VQE algorithms. This work provides a roadmap for advancing quantum algorithms and hardware toward achieving quantum advantage in molecular modeling.