Daily Papers

Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on AMLworld's smallest test splits is costly because each of over a million targets requires a separate graph prompt. Sampling reduces this cost, but small balanced subsets change unweighted precision and F1. We introduce AMLworld-Compact, an evaluation set that retains every illicit test transaction and samples benign transactions from supervised-score strata. Its HT-Coreset protocol reduces evaluation targets by 271x and 611x on HI-Small and LI-Small. Horvitz-Thompson weights give unbiased full-test confusion-count estimates for fixed predictions; recall is exact, while precision and F1 are ratio estimates. In a held-out study using Graph Feature Preprocessor (GFP) features, one boosted-tree family defines strata for evaluating the other over 500 draws per configuration. At the released sizes, F1 RMSE is 0.00-2.58 percentage points versus 4.44-7.41 for uniform sampling with HT weights; conservative intervals remain broad. Under the evaluated graph prompts, seven open-weight LLMs have weighted precision near the predict-all-illicit baseline. In an outcome-stratified audit of 1,000 HI-Small few-shot outputs from one run per model, lexical checks pass for 84.5% of correct and 56.2% of incorrect binary verdicts, so these markers do not establish correctness. We release the evaluation sets, construction code, and audit tools at https://huggingface.co/datasets/typhoon-ai/AMLworldCompactEval and https://github.com/nat-nischw/AMLworld-Compact.

This study proposes a two-level stacking ensemble framework for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of turbofan engines, evaluated on the NASA C-MAPSS benchmark using the FD001 and FD003 subsets. The framework integrates four heterogeneous deep learning base learners: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, and CNN-GRU, whose out-of-fold predictions are combined by an XGBoost meta-learner to capture complex degradation patterns while mitigating individual model biases. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the stacking ensemble achieves superior predictive performance, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 9.989 and 8.613, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 7.081 and 5.195, and R-squared values of 0.899 and 0.906 for FD001 and FD003, respectively. Compared to the best-reported baseline (TCAT: RMSE 11.12 and 11.02), the proposed method achieves RMSE reductions of 10.2 percent and 21.8 percent for FD001 and FD003, respectively. Feature correlation analysis, residual diagnostics, and training convergence curves validate the model's robustness. These findings underscore the efficacy of stacking ensemble methods for prognostics and health management in safety-critical aerospace applications.

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

Mycotoxin contamination poses a significant risk to cereal crop quality, food safety, and agricultural productivity. Accurate prediction of mycotoxin levels can support early intervention strategies and reduce economic losses. This study investigates the use of neural networks and transfer learning models to predict mycotoxin contamination in Irish oat crops as a multi-response prediction task. Our dataset comprises oat samples collected in Ireland, containing a mix of environmental, agronomic, and geographical predictors. Five modelling approaches were evaluated: a baseline multilayer perceptron (MLP), an MLP with pre-training, and three transfer learning models; TabPFN, TabNet, and FT-Transformer. Model performance was evaluated using regression (RMSE, R^2) and classification (AUC, F1) metrics, with results reported per toxin and on average. Additionally, permutation-based variable importance analysis was conducted to identify the most influential predictors across both prediction tasks. The transfer learning approach TabPFN provided the overall best performance, followed by the baseline MLP. Our variable importance analysis revealed that weather history patterns in the 90-day pre-harvest period were the most important predictors, alongside seed moisture content.

Curbing online hate speech has become the need of the hour; however, a blanket ban on such activities is infeasible for several geopolitical and cultural reasons. To reduce the severity of the problem, in this paper, we introduce a novel task, hate speech normalization, that aims to weaken the intensity of hatred exhibited by an online post. The intention of hate speech normalization is not to support hate but instead to provide the users with a stepping stone towards non-hate while giving online platforms more time to monitor any improvement in the user's behavior. To this end, we manually curated a parallel corpus - hate texts and their normalized counterparts (a normalized text is less hateful and more benign). We introduce NACL, a simple yet efficient hate speech normalization model that operates in three stages - first, it measures the hate intensity of the original sample; second, it identifies the hate span(s) within it; and finally, it reduces hate intensity by paraphrasing the hate spans. We perform extensive experiments to measure the efficacy of NACL via three-way evaluation (intrinsic, extrinsic, and human-study). We observe that NACL outperforms six baselines - NACL yields a score of 0.1365 RMSE for the intensity prediction, 0.622 F1-score in the span identification, and 82.27 BLEU and 80.05 perplexity for the normalized text generation. We further show the generalizability of NACL across other platforms (Reddit, Facebook, Gab). An interactive prototype of NACL was put together for the user study. Further, the tool is being deployed in a real-world setting at Wipro AI as a part of its mission to tackle harmful content on online platforms.

The online fusion and tracking of static objects from heterogeneous sensor detections is a fundamental problem in robotics, autonomous systems, and environmental mapping. Although classical data association approaches such as JPDA are well suited for dynamic targets, they are less effective for static objects observed intermittently and with heterogeneous uncertainties, where motion models provide minimal discriminative power with respect to clutter. In this paper, we propose a novel method for static object data association by clustering multi-modal sensor detections online (SODA-CitrON), while simultaneously estimating positions and maintaining persistent tracks for an unknown number of objects. The proposed unsupervised machine learning approach operates in a fully online manner and handles temporally uncorrelated and multi-sensor measurements. Additionally, it has a worst-case loglinear complexity in the number of sensor detections while providing full output explainability. We evaluate the proposed approach in different Monte Carlo simulation scenarios and compare it against state-of-the-art methods, including POM-based filtering, DBSTREAM clustering, and JPDA. The results demonstrate that SODA-CitrON consistently outperforms the compared methods in terms of F1 score, position RMSE, MOTP, and MOTA in the static object mapping scenarios studied.

Understanding and predicting human emotional and physiological states using wearable sensors has important applications in stress monitoring, mental health assessment, and affective computing. This study presents a novel Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that performs Electrodermal Activity (EDA) prediction and emotion classification simultaneously, using the publicly available WESAD dataset. The model integrates psychological self-report features (PANAS and SAM) with a physics-inspired differential equation representing EDA dynamics, enforcing biophysically grounded constraints through a custom loss function. This loss combines EDA regression, emotion classification, and a physics residual term for improved interpretability. The architecture supports dual outputs for both tasks and is trained under a unified multi-task framework. Evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieves an average EDA RMSE of 0.0362, Pearson correlation of 0.9919, and F1-score of 94.08 percent. These results outperform classical models such as SVR and XGBoost, as well as ablated variants like emotion-only and EDA-only models. In addition, the learned physical parameters including decay rate (alpha_0), emotional sensitivity (beta), and time scaling (gamma) are interpretable and stable across folds, aligning with known principles of human physiology. This work is the first to introduce a multi-task PINN framework for wearable emotion recognition, offering improved performance, generalizability, and model transparency. The proposed system provides a foundation for future interpretable and multimodal applications in healthcare and human-computer interaction.

Large language models (LLMs) are now widely used across many fields, including marketing research. Sentiment analysis, in particular, helps firms understand consumer preferences. While most NLP studies classify sentiment from review text alone, marketing theories, such as prospect theory and expectation--disconfirmation theory, point out that customer evaluations are shaped not only by the actual experience but also by additional reference points. This study therefore investigates how the content and format of such supplementary information affect sentiment analysis using LLMs. We compare natural language (NL) and JSON-formatted prompts using a lightweight 3B parameter model suitable for practical marketing applications. Experiments on two Yelp categories (Restaurant and Nightlife) show that the JSON prompt with additional information outperforms all baselines without fine-tuning: Macro-F1 rises by 1.6% and 4% while RMSE falls by 16% and 9.1%, respectively, making it deployable in resource-constrained edge devices. Furthermore, a follow-up analysis confirms that performance gains stem from genuine contextual reasoning rather than label proxying. This work demonstrates that structured prompting can enable smaller models to achieve competitive performance, offering a practical alternative to large-scale model deployment.

Traffic anomaly detection has played a crucial role in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). The main challenges of this task lie in the highly diversified anomaly scenes and variational lighting conditions. Although much work has managed to identify the anomaly in homogenous weather and scene, few resolved to cope with complex ones. In this paper, we proposed a dual-modality modularized methodology for the robust detection of abnormal vehicles. We introduced an integrated anomaly detection framework comprising the following modules: background modeling, vehicle tracking with detection, mask construction, Region of Interest (ROI) backtracking, and dual-modality tracing. Concretely, we employed background modeling to filter the motion information and left the static information for later vehicle detection. For the vehicle detection and tracking module, we adopted YOLOv5 and multi-scale tracking to localize the anomalies. Besides, we utilized the frame difference and tracking results to identify the road and obtain the mask. In addition, we introduced multiple similarity estimation metrics to refine the anomaly period via backtracking. Finally, we proposed a dual-modality bilateral tracing module to refine the time further. The experiments conducted on the Track 4 testset of the NVIDIA 2021 AI City Challenge yielded a result of 0.9302 F1-Score and 3.4039 root mean square error (RMSE), indicating the effectiveness of our framework.

Monocular building height estimation from optical imagery is important for urban morphology characterization but remains challenging due to ambiguous height cues, large inter-city variations in building morphology, and the long-tailed distribution of building heights. PhiSat-2 is a promising open-access data source for this task because of its global coverage, 4.75 m spatial resolution, and seven-band spectral observations, yet its potential has not been systematically evaluated. To address this gap, we construct a PhiSat-2-Height dataset (PHDataset) and propose a Two-Stream Ordinal Network (TSONet). PHDataset contains 9,475 co-registered image-label patch pairs from 26 cities worldwide. TSONet jointly models footprint segmentation and height estimation, and introduces a Cross-Stream Exchange Module (CSEM) and a Feature-Enhanced Bin Refinement (FEBR) module for footprint-aware feature interaction and ordinal height refinement. Experiments on PHDataset show that TSONet achieves the best overall performance, reducing MAE and RMSE by 13.2% and 9.7%, and improving IoU and F1-score by 14.0% and 10.1% over the strongest competing results. Ablation studies further verify the effectiveness of CSEM, FEBR, and the joint use of ordinal regression and footprint assistance. Additional analyses indicate that PhiSat-2 benefits monocular building height estimation through its balanced combination of building-relevant spatial detail and multispectral observations. Overall, this study confirms the potential of PhiSat-2 for monocular building height estimation and provides a dedicated dataset and an effective method for future research.

AIVC (AI Virtual Cell) is a learned simulator of cellular behavior across conditions. Predicting how a cell population responds transcriptionally to a genetic perturbation is a core task. Perturb-seq records that response by destructive sequencing, so a control cell and a perturbed cell are never observed as a pair, and cells under one condition remain heterogeneous and noisy. Regression on individual cells absorbs sampling variation into the estimated effect, whereas interpretation requires the reproducible population effect. P2P (Perturbation-to-Perturbation) takes a stochastic cell-set view as its supervision unit. Two views drawn from the same condition share a reproducible population effect and differ by view-specific variation. A permutation-invariant set encoder summarizes the control population, a structured encoder represents perturbation tokens, cellular context, dose, and combination interactions, and a gate blends empirical condition-effect memory with a neural residual. A heteroscedastic head predicts the population mean and gene-wise response variance. Under one protocol and five seeds, P2P attains the lowest expression RMSE and the highest Effect Pearson, DEG F1, and DEG average precision on each of Adamson, Norman, Replogle K562, and Replogle RPE1 relative to GenePert, LinearPert, SLIM, Scouter, and scPILOT. On Replogle K562, Effect Pearson rises from 0.643 to 0.702 and DEG F1 rises from 0.067 to 0.178 relative to Scouter, the strongest baseline on both metrics.

This study aims to develop and evaluate an ensemble machine learning-based framework for the automatic detection of Wide QRS Complex Tachycardia (WCT) from ECG signals, emphasizing diagnostic accuracy and interpretability using Explainable AI. The proposed system integrates ensemble learning techniques, i.e., an optimized Random Forest known as CardioForest, and models like XGBoost and LightGBM. The models were trained and tested on ECG data from the publicly available MIMIC-IV dataset. The testing was carried out with the assistance of accuracy, balanced accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, ROC-AUC, and error rate (RMSE, MAE) measures. In addition, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was used to ascertain model explainability and clinical relevance. The CardioForest model performed best on all metrics, achieving a test accuracy of 94.95%, a balanced accuracy of 88.31%, and high precision and recall metrics. SHAP analysis confirmed the model's ability to rank the most relevant ECG features, such as QRS duration, in accordance with clinical intuitions, thereby fostering trust and usability in clinical practice. The findings recognize CardioForest as an extremely dependable and interpretable WCT detection model. Being able to offer accurate predictions and transparency through explainability makes it a valuable tool to help cardiologists make timely and well-informed diagnoses, especially for high-stakes and emergency scenarios.

This study introduces a human-in-the-loop pipeline that converts unscaled, hand-drawn floor plan sketches into semantically consistent 3D BIM models. The workflow leverages multimodal large language models (MLLMs) within a multi-agent framework, combining perceptual extraction, human feedback, schema validation, and automated BIM scripting. Initially, sketches are iteratively refined into a structured JSON layout of walls, doors, and windows. Later, these layouts are transformed into executable scripts that generate 3D BIM models. Experiments on ten diverse floor plans demonstrate strong convergence: openings (doors, windows) are captured with high reliability in the initial pass, while wall detection begins around 83% and achieves near-perfect alignment after a few feedback iterations. Across all categories, precision, recall, and F1 scores remain above 0.83, and geometric errors (RMSE, MAE) progressively decrease to zero through feedback corrections. This study demonstrates how MLLM-driven multi-agent reasoning can make BIM creation accessible to both experts and non-experts using only freehand sketches.

Meeting the increasing global demand for food security and sustainable farming requires intelligent crop recommendation systems that operate in real time. Traditional soil analysis techniques are often slow, labor-intensive, and not suitable for on-field decision-making. To address these limitations, we introduce AgroSense, a deep-learning framework that integrates soil image classification and nutrient profiling to produce accurate and contextually relevant crop recommendations. AgroSense comprises two main components: a Soil Classification Module, which leverages ResNet-18, EfficientNet-B0, and Vision Transformer architectures to categorize soil types from images; and a Crop Recommendation Module, which employs a Multi-Layer Perceptron, XGBoost, LightGBM, and TabNet to analyze structured soil data, including nutrient levels, pH, and rainfall. We curated a multimodal dataset of 10,000 paired samples drawn from publicly available Kaggle repositories, approximately 50,000 soil images across seven classes, and 25,000 nutrient profiles for experimental evaluation. The fused model achieves 98.0% accuracy, with a precision of 97.8%, a recall of 97.7%, and an F1-score of 96.75%, while RMSE and MAE drop to 0.32 and 0.27, respectively. Ablation studies underscore the critical role of multimodal coupling, and statistical validation via t-tests and ANOVA confirms the significance of our improvements. AgroSense offers a practical, scalable solution for real-time decision support in precision agriculture and paves the way for future lightweight multimodal AI systems in resource-constrained environments.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce an innovative approach for forecasting stock prices with greater accuracy. We incorporate external economic environment-related information along with stock prices. In our novel approach, we improve the performance of stock price prediction by taking into account variations due to future expected macroeconomic policy changes as investors adjust their current behavior ahead of time based on expected future macroeconomic policy changes. Furthermore, we incorporate macroeconomic variables along with historical stock prices to make predictions. Results from this strongly support the inclusion of future economic policy changes along with current macroeconomic information. We confirm the supremacy of our method over the conventional approach using several tree-based machine-learning algorithms. Results are strongly conclusive across various machine learning models. Our preferred model outperforms the conventional approach with an RMSE value of 1.61 compared to an RMSE value of 1.75 from the conventional approach.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

Cross-machine deployment of industrial world models requires transfer across changes in dynamics, sensing interfaces, sampling regimes, and control units. We study a schema-adaptive action-conditioned Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (SAAC-JEPA) for CNC dynamics, where the source machine has 17 canonical sensor channels and the target shares only 10. Evaluation uses group-disjoint source splits, source-only normalization, held-out self-supervised validation, unit audits, and a sealed target test after model locking. Across five seeds, JEPA pretraining gives no clean-source forecasting gain: scratch and pretrained-body models obtain \(RMSE=0.811\pm0.022\) and \(0.813\pm0.022\). A source-only search over 20 candidates selects a schema-consistent action-conditioned JEPA after seven-seed stability checks. On the confirmatory target pass, the locked model reaches zero-shot \(RMSE=0.546\), \(R^2=0.012\), and \(NLL=0.52\), outperforming persistence but not RevIN-equipped PatchTST and iTransformer baselines (\(0.503\) and \(0.498\)). A pre-declared paired ablation shows that RevIN in the same architecture improves RMSE to \(0.495\pm0.004\) over three seeds, but degrades target calibration (\(NLL=20.6\)) on stationary context windows. A pre-lock adaptation sweep further reduces RMSE to \(0.520\) with limited target support. These results show that source-domain forecasting accuracy alone is insufficient to assess industrial predictive representations, and that cross-machine adaptation under partial sensor overlap is a distinct evaluation axis.

Long-term time-series forecasting needs models that are accurate yet efficient enough for commodity hardware. Lightweight linear forecasters are remarkably strong in this regime, yet they leave two openings: reversible instance normalization (RevIN) de-normalizes the entire horizon with a single lookback statistic, which is inaccurate under non-stationarity, and time-domain trend/seasonal decomposition relies on a fixed, non-adaptive filter. We present FreqLite, an ultra-lightweight, channel-independent frequency-decomposed linear forecaster: a learnable, lossless, partition-of-unity spectral filter splits the input into bands that are forecast by per-band linear heads and, unlike low-pass-truncation approaches, the high-frequency band is retained and modeled. FreqLite is the best lightweight model on the standard long-term forecasting benchmarks and, at long lookback (L=336), attains a lower average error than a PatchTST Transformer (0.3244 vs. 0.3587 MSE) while using 4x fewer parameters, 2.2x less memory, and 2.2x less time per epoch on a single 4 GB laptop GPU; although modest in magnitude, its improvements are statistically significant under paired Wilcoxon tests across all matched cells (p < 1e-5). We further introduce Adaptive Reversible Instance Normalization (A-RevIN), a regime-adaptive reversible normalization that strictly generalizes RevIN (recovered exactly when its gate is closed), engages under non-stationarity, and reduces to RevIN without harm on stationary data. We validate this on both a real strongly non-stationary dataset (ILI, up to ~5% MSE reduction) and a controlled synthetic drift sweep in which A-RevIN's benefit and its learned gate both rise monotonically with injected non-stationarity. Every component is independently ablatable (Linear and RLinear are special cases of FreqLite), and all results are reproducible on commodity hardware.

Foundation models have transformed natural language processing and computer vision, and a rapidly growing literature on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) seeks to replicate this success in forecasting. While recent open-source models demonstrate the promise of TSFMs, the field lacks a comprehensive and community-accepted model evaluation framework. We see at least four major issues impeding progress on the development of such a framework. First, existing evaluation frameworks comprise benchmark forecasting tasks derived from often outdated datasets (e.g., M3), many of which lack clear metadata and overlap with the corpora used to pre-train TSFMs. Second, these frameworks evaluate models along a narrowly defined set of benchmark forecasting tasks, such as forecast horizon length or domain, but overlook core statistical properties such as non-stationarity and seasonality. Third, domain-specific models (e.g., XGBoost) are often compared unfairly, as existing frameworks do not enforce a systematic and consistent hyperparameter tuning convention for all models. Fourth, visualization tools for interpreting comparative performance are lacking. To address these issues, we introduce TempusBench, an open-source evaluation framework for TSFMs. TempusBench consists of 1) new datasets which are not included in existing TSFM pretraining corpora, 2) a set of novel benchmark tasks that go beyond existing ones, 3) a model evaluation pipeline with a standardized hyperparameter tuning protocol, and 4) a tensorboard-based visualization interface. We provide access to our code on GitHub: https://github.com/Smlcrm/TempusBench and maintain a live leaderboard at https://benchmark.smlcrm.com/.

We introduce TiRex-2, a recurrent xLSTM-based time series foundation model that generalizes the univariate TiRex to multivariate forecasting with both past and future covariates. Real-world forecasting is inherently sequential: observations arrive continuously, variables evolve jointly, and a subset of covariates is known ahead of time. Existing Transformer-based time series foundation models capture cross-variate dependencies but incur quadratic complexity in context length and require full-history recomputation as new observations arrive. TiRex-2 addresses these limitations through a memory-centric recurrent design that operates at constant per-patch cost under streaming. The model combines a bidirectional time mixer with an asymmetric grouped-attention variate mixer, enabling the integration of future-known covariates while preserving strict causality over target variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time series foundation model that achieves this combination of properties. To support scalable multivariate pretraining, we propose a synthetic coupling pipeline that composes diverse multivariate samples on the fly from large univariate corpora. Empirically, TiRex-2 achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on GIFT-Eval and fev-bench, remains stable when streamed to arbitrary context lengths, and maintains constant inference cost per patch. The model uses 38.4M active parameters in univariate mode, with an additional 44.1M parameters activated for multivariate forecasting.

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

Sky-image irradiance studies often compare forecasting systems in which the image encoder, temporal model, fusion block, target definition, and training recipe all change together. We use a narrower protocol: the multimodal forecasting pipeline is fixed, and only the visual backbone is varied. The shared setup keeps preprocessing, clear-sky-index normalization, weather-history encoding, fusion, regression head, loss, optimizer schedule, seed, and chronological split policy unchanged. We compare ConvNeXt, Swin Transformer, VMamba, Spatial Mamba, and MambaVision backbones for 10min-ahead forecasting on Folsom and a strict matched NREL split. Forecast skill is measured against clear-sky-index smart persistence, and temporal-only rows are reported as weather-history diagnostics rather than as the main ranking criterion. On the Folsom strict split, all evaluated visual-backbone runs improve over smart persistence. In the evaluated single-seed strict runs, VMamba Small and Swin Base reach matched Folsom RMSE values of 65.39 W/m^2 and 65.50 W/m^2; the temporal-only diagnostic reaches 69.51 W/m^2. On the 313-sample NREL strict split, smart persistence remains strongest at 17.48 W/m^2, while the lowest visual RMSE is obtained by Swin Tiny at 23.76 W/m^2. These results provide a reproducible encoder comparison under one fixed multimodal operating point rather than establishing architecture-level dominance, statistically resolved ranking, or fully optimized forecasting performance. Code available here: https://github.com/Oshadha345/irradiance_benchmark

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.

Accurate long horizon forecasting of particulate matter (PM) concentration fields is essential for operational public health decisions. However, achieving reliable forecasts remains challenging in regions with complex terrain and strong atmospheric dynamics such as East Asia. While foundation models such as Aurora offer global generality, they often miss region-specific dynamics and rely on non-real-time inputs, limiting their practical utility for localized warning systems. To address this gap, we construct and release the real-world observations and high-resolution CMAQ-OBS dataset for East Asia, reducing regional error by 59.5% and enabling real-time 48-120 hour forecasts critical for public health alerts. However, standard point-wise objectives cannot reflect asymmetric operational costs, where false alarms deteriorate public trust while missed severe events endanger populations. This cost mismatch causes SFT models to over-predict and yield high False Alarm Rates. We introduce Group-Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with class-wise rewards and curriculum rollout to align predictions with operational priorities. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the reliability of the forecast. Compared to the SFT-only baseline, our model reduces the False Alarm Rate by 47.3% while achieving a competitive F1-score, proving its effectiveness for practical, real-world air quality forecasting systems on long lead time scenarios.

Obesity, the leading cause of many non-communicable diseases, occurs mainly for eating more than our body requirements and lack of proper activity. So, being healthy requires heathy diet plans, especially for patients with comorbidities. But it is difficult to figure out the exact quantity of each nutrient because nutrients requirement varies based on physical and disease conditions. In our study we proposed a novel machine learning based system to predict the amount of nutrients one individual requires for being healthy. We applied different machine learning algorithms: linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM on fluid and 3 other major micronutrients: carbohydrate, protein, fat consumption prediction. We achieved high accuracy with low root mean square error (RMSE) by using linear regression in fluid prediction, random forest in carbohydrate prediction and LightGBM in protein and fat prediction. We believe our diet recommender system, OBESEYE, is the only of its kind which recommends diet with the consideration of comorbidities and physical conditions and promote encouragement to get rid of obesity.

This paper describes the first open dataset for full-scale and high-speed autonomous racing. Multi-modal sensor data has been collected from fully autonomous Indy race cars operating at speeds of up to 170 mph (273 kph). Six teams who raced in the Indy Autonomous Challenge have contributed to this dataset. The dataset spans 11 interesting racing scenarios across two race tracks which include solo laps, multi-agent laps, overtaking situations, high-accelerations, banked tracks, obstacle avoidance, pit entry and exit at different speeds. The dataset contains data from 27 racing sessions across the 11 scenarios with over 6.5 hours of sensor data recorded from the track. The data is organized and released in both ROS2 and nuScenes format. We have also developed the ROS2-to-nuScenes conversion library to achieve this. The RACECAR data is unique because of the high-speed environment of autonomous racing. We present several benchmark problems on localization, object detection and tracking (LiDAR, Radar, and Camera), and mapping using the RACECAR data to explore issues that arise at the limits of operation of the vehicle.

Radio frequency (RF) signal mapping, which is the process of analyzing and predicting the RF signal strength and distribution across specific areas, is crucial for cellular network planning and deployment. Traditional approaches to RF signal mapping rely on statistical models constructed based on measurement data, which offer low complexity but often lack accuracy, or ray tracing tools, which provide enhanced precision for the target area but suffer from increased computational complexity. Recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a data-driven method for modeling RF signal propagation, which leverages models trained on synthetic datasets to perform RF signal mapping in "unseen" areas. In this paper, we present Geo2SigMap, an ML-based framework for efficient and high-fidelity RF signal mapping using geographic databases. First, we develop an automated framework that seamlessly integrates three open-source tools: OpenStreetMap (geographic databases), Blender (computer graphics), and Sionna (ray tracing), enabling the efficient generation of large-scale 3D building maps and ray tracing models. Second, we propose a cascaded U-Net model, which is pre-trained on synthetic datasets and employed to generate detailed RF signal maps, leveraging environmental information and sparse measurement data. Finally, we evaluate the performance of Geo2SigMap via a real-world measurement campaign, where three types of user equipment (UE) collect over 45,000 data points related to cellular information from six LTE cells operating in the citizens broadband radio service (CBRS) band. Our results show that Geo2SigMap achieves an average root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 6.04 dB for predicting the reference signal received power (RSRP) at the UE, representing an average RMSE improvement of 3.59 dB compared to existing methods.

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

Feedforward steering control is a key component of hierarchical control architectures for autonomous racing. The goal is to reduce steering corrections from the feedback controllers by predicting the vehicle's inverse lateral dynamics. This paper presents a systematic benchmark of two learning-based and two empirical (analytical) feedforward steering controllers. We introduce a new ehd formulation based on a polynomial surface fit that captures velocity-dependent nonlinear steering behavior with minimal parametrization. We test the feedforward controllers in a high-fidelity simulation framework based on the real-world Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League competition, using a high-fidelity double-track vehicle dynamics simulator. Open-loop evaluation shows that the learning-based controllers achieve the lowest prediction errors; however, closed-loop testing reveals that this improved accuracy does not translate into superior path tracking performance or lap times, even after iterative fine-tuning. In contrast, the proposed EHD approach achieves the best overall closed-loop robustness and lap time, highlighting the necessity of evaluating feedforward strategies within the complete trajectory planning and control software stack. Our code is available at https://github.com/TUMRT/steering_ff_control.

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

Layer normalization (LayerNorm) has been successfully applied to various deep neural networks to help stabilize training and boost model convergence because of its capability in handling re-centering and re-scaling of both inputs and weight matrix. However, the computational overhead introduced by LayerNorm makes these improvements expensive and significantly slows the underlying network, e.g. RNN in particular. In this paper, we hypothesize that re-centering invariance in LayerNorm is dispensable and propose root mean square layer normalization, or RMSNorm. RMSNorm regularizes the summed inputs to a neuron in one layer according to root mean square (RMS), giving the model re-scaling invariance property and implicit learning rate adaptation ability. RMSNorm is computationally simpler and thus more efficient than LayerNorm. We also present partial RMSNorm, or pRMSNorm where the RMS is estimated from p% of the summed inputs without breaking the above properties. Extensive experiments on several tasks using diverse network architectures show that RMSNorm achieves comparable performance against LayerNorm but reduces the running time by 7%~64% on different models. Source code is available at https://github.com/bzhangGo/rmsnorm.

Frequency response function (FRF) measurements are widely used in Gravitational Wave (GW) detectors, e.g., for the design of controllers, calibrating signals and diagnostic problems with system dynamics. The aim of this paper is to present GraFIT: a toolbox that enables fast, inexpensive, and accurate identification of FRF measurements for GW detectors compared to the commonly used approaches, including common spectral analysis techniques. The toolbox consists of a single function to estimate the frequency response function for both open-loop and closed-loop systems and for arbitrary input and output dimensions. The toolbox is validated on two experimental case studies of the Virgo detector, illustrating more than a factor 3 reduction in standard deviation of the estimate for the same measurement times, and comparable standard deviations with up to 10 times less data for the new method with respect to the currently implemented Spectral Analysis method.

Symbolic benchmarks have emerged as a key approach to assess model robustness under minor modifications to STEM-related questions. However, existing symbolic benchmarks mostly remain limited to mathematical reasoning, lack visual grounding, and are predominantly in English. In this work, we introduce Sci-Rho (Science Rhobustness), a dynamic benchmark for visually-grounded STEM problems spanning five subjects and seven languages, comprising 4,242 problem templates (606 per language) crafted by domain experts, including Olympiad medalists. Each template is implemented as executable Python code that generates diverse but equivalent problem instances by varying numerical values, visual patterns, geometric shapes, color schemes, and function types, resulting in 42,420 instances in total, each paired with reasoning steps and ground-truth solutions. We evaluated 17 state-of-the-art VLMs and discovered a noticeable gap between worst-case accuracy (defined as the proportion of problem templates that a model answers correctly across every generated variation) and average accuracy. We also discovered that smaller models show noticeable performance degradation across languages, whereas proprietary and larger models remain robust. Step-level evaluation reflects this same trend, revealing a significant gap between average F1 and worst-case F1 scores. Finally, our inspection of attention heads of a VLM reveals substantial cross-lingual variation in the relative attention allocated to image tokens compared to text tokens. Our work highlights the importance of evaluation beyond static benchmarks as a metric to measure the quality of VLMs.

Time series foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for general-purpose forecasting. However, most leading models predict marginal quantiles, leaving the dependence structure of future trajectories unspecified. This distinction matters for trajectory-dependent quantities such as cumulative demand, peak load, and event timing, yet point and marginal scores do not reveal it. To model this dependence, we introduce PathFM, a trajectory-based forecasting model that uses flow matching to generate complete future paths. We further distill the model to one or two steps and share history attention cache across draws. Together, these enable PathFM to generate multiple paths for a single series in roughly the time needed for one query to a quantile model. The distilled sampler also makes it practical to optimize a calibration loss directly. PathFM achieves competitive marginal accuracy on the established forecasting benchmarks fev-bench and TIME. To complement these evaluations, we introduce Forecast Path Score Bench (fps-bench), which augments fev-bench tasks with energy and variogram scores and downstream metrics. PathFM achieves a higher aggregate path score on fps-bench than all evaluated external baselines. Experiments on chaotic systems further show that our flow model sustains long-run variability, while strong baselines rapidly collapse. PathFM makes generative time series forecasting both competitive and practical, enabling diverse downstream applications.

Modern time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) generate hundreds of thousands of alerts each night, making real-time decisions for follow-up observations a central challenge in time-domain astronomy. Robust early classification is crucial for making informed decisions, but is hindered by sparse light curves and degeneracies between classes. In this work, we leverage multimodality to substantially improve real-time classification and demonstrate the practicality of our approach by deploying our model on the ZTF alert stream. Building on the Online Ranked Astrophysical CLass Estimator (ORACLE), we introduce the ORACLE-2 models, which combine light curves, metadata, and images for real-time hierarchical classification. Using both real and simulated datasets, we show that incorporating additional modalities consistently improves classification performance. On observations from ZTF's Bright Transient Survey, our best-performing model, ORACLE-2 Omni, achieves a macro F1 score of 0.73 -- an improvement of up to 11% over models using light curves and metadata alone, and up to 40% over light-curve-only models, with the strongest gains realized at early times. To demonstrate applicability to the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will increase alert volume by more than an order of magnitude, we train a light curve + metadata variant on the simulated ELAsTiCC dataset. This model achieves a macro F1 score of 0.88, an improvement of up to 13% over the light-curve-only variant, matching the performance of other state-of-the-art models. Finally, we quantify the trade-offs between performance and throughput, identifying regimes where multimodal approaches offer the greatest benefit. These results show that combining multiple modalities improves early-time classification, enabling more effective triage of high-volume alert streams for current and future time-domain surveys.

We introduce a recurrent neural network architecture for automated road surface wetness detection from audio of tire-surface interaction. The robustness of our approach is evaluated on 785,826 bins of audio that span an extensive range of vehicle speeds, noises from the environment, road surface types, and pavement conditions including international roughness index (IRI) values from 25 in/mi to 1400 in/mi. The training and evaluation of the model are performed on different roads to minimize the impact of environmental and other external factors on the accuracy of the classification. We achieve an unweighted average recall (UAR) of 93.2% across all vehicle speeds including 0 mph. The classifier still works at 0 mph because the discriminating signal is present in the sound of other vehicles driving by.

Accurate weather forecasting is essential for understanding and mitigating weather-related impacts. In this paper, we present PuYun, an autoregressive cascade model that leverages large kernel attention convolutional networks. The model's design inherently supports extended weather prediction horizons while broadening the effective receptive field. The integration of large kernel attention mechanisms within the convolutional layers enhances the model's capacity to capture fine-grained spatial details, thereby improving its predictive accuracy for meteorological phenomena. We introduce PuYun, comprising PuYun-Short for 0-5 day forecasts and PuYun-Medium for 5-10 day predictions. This approach enhances the accuracy of 10-day weather forecasting. Through evaluation, we demonstrate that PuYun-Short alone surpasses the performance of both GraphCast and FuXi-Short in generating accurate 10-day forecasts. Specifically, on the 10th day, PuYun-Short reduces the RMSE for Z500 to 720 m^2/s^2, compared to 732 m^2/s^2 for GraphCast and 740 m^2/s^2 for FuXi-Short. Additionally, the RMSE for T2M is reduced to 2.60 K, compared to 2.63 K for GraphCast and 2.65 K for FuXi-Short. Furthermore, when employing a cascaded approach by integrating PuYun-Short and PuYun-Medium, our method achieves superior results compared to the combined performance of FuXi-Short and FuXi-Medium. On the 10th day, the RMSE for Z500 is further reduced to 638 m^2/s^2, compared to 641 m^2/s^2 for FuXi. These findings underscore the effectiveness of our model ensemble in advancing medium-range weather prediction. Our training code and model will be open-sourced.

Selecting a subset of features (columns) from a tabular dataset is a ubiquitous challenge in real-world applications. Industry experts seek to minimize model training costs, climate scientists require an interpretable subset of factors to understand extreme weather events, and clinicians need to choose among diagnostic tests due to financial and time constraints. When looking at the scientific literature to determine which feature selection method to use, practitioners across domains face an unrepresentative landscape of benchmarking. Despite extensive research, existing feature selection benchmarks provide limited guidance because they rely on outdated models, ad hoc evaluation protocols, or artificially generated data that do not reflect real-world problems. To close the gap between scientific benchmarking and real-world applications, we introduce SelectArena, a modern benchmark for feature selection. We compare 15 widely used feature selection methods on 71 manually curated real-world tabular datasets, covering classification and regression problems, using standardized evaluation protocols and state-of-the-art tabular (foundation) models. Our results reveal clear trade-offs across predictive performance, runtime, stability, and validity. Tree-based methods, CART and RFImportance, along with F-Test are Pareto-optimal when taking into account predictive performance and runtime. F-Test, information-theory-, and distance-based methods lead on stability and validity, with F-Test emerging as a balanced choice across our metrics. Search-based methods are slow, unstable and achieve low performance. SelectArena turns these findings into practical guidance and, as an extensible platform, supports future feature selection research.

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly given the recent rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have narrow domain coverage or overlook important real-world settings, such as tasks with covariates. Additionally, their aggregation procedures often lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks also fail to provide infrastructure for consistent evaluation or are too rigid to integrate into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark comprising 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 tasks with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for benchmarking forecasting models that emphasizes reproducibility and seamless integration with existing workflows. Usingfev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation methods with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report model performance along two complementary dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for various pretrained, statistical and baseline models, and identify promising directions for future research.

We introduce VROOM, a system for reconstructing 3D models of Formula 1 circuits using only onboard camera footage from racecars. Leveraging video data from the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix, we address video challenges such as high-speed motion and sharp cuts in camera frames. Our pipeline analyzes different methods such as DROID-SLAM, AnyCam, and Monst3r and combines preprocessing techniques such as different methods of masking, temporal chunking, and resolution scaling to account for dynamic motion and computational constraints. We show that Vroom is able to partially recover track and vehicle trajectories in complex environments. These findings indicate the feasibility of using onboard video for scalable 4D reconstruction in real-world settings. The project page can be found at https://varun-bharadwaj.github.io/vroom, and our code is available at https://github.com/yajatyadav/vroom.

Time series question-answering (TSQA), in which we ask natural language questions to infer and reason about properties of time series, is a promising yet underexplored capability of foundation models. In this work, we present ARFBench, a TSQA benchmark that evaluates the understanding of multimodal foundation models (FMs) on time series anomalies prevalent in software incident data. ARFBench consists of 750 questions across 142 time series and 5.38M data points from 63 production incidents sourced exclusively from internal telemetry at Datadog. We evaluate leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and time series FMs and observe that frontier VLMs perform markedly better than existing baselines; the leading model (GPT-5) achieves a 62.7% accuracy and 51.9% F1. We next demonstrate the promise of specialized multimodal approaches. We develop a novel TSFM + VLM hybrid prototype which we post-train on a small set of synthetic and real data that yields comparable overall F1 and accuracy with frontier models. Lastly, we find models and human domain experts exhibit complementary strengths. We define a model-expert oracle, a best-of-2 oracle selector over model and expert answers, yielding 82.8% F1 and 87.2% accuracy and establishing a new superhuman frontier for future TSQA models. The benchmark is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Datadog/ARFBench.

The development of 0.1^{circ} global weather forecasting models based on machine learning (ML) is constrained by the limited availability of high-resolution data, as decades of reanalysis are only available at 0.25^{circ} resolution. While existing approaches fine-tune 0.25^{circ} forecast models on limited 0.1^{circ} samples, we show that this transfer is hindered by the irreversible information loss inherent in coarse-resolution forecasting. Therefore, we propose BaguanHR, a framework that shifts the focus from transferring models to transferring data. We first show that super-resolution (SR) has lower conditional entropy and input amplification than forecasting, making it a more robust vehicle for resolution transfer. By leveraging this advantage through variable-wise SR, we synthesize extensive 0.1^{circ} data from ERA5. BaguanHR's performance on the synthetic-plus-real dataset exceeds both ML-based methods and IFS-HRES, achieving superior performance across over 85% of the lead times within 72 hours. Furthermore, our findings highlight a power-law scaling effect, as a twofold increase in data reduces RMSE by 4.6% for 72-hour forecasting and 4.9% for 120-hour forecasting. Our results demonstrate that scaling high resolution ML-based forecasting is primarily a data bottleneck, and that variable-wise super-resolution provides a simple yet general solution to unlock long coarse-resolution reanalyses for high-resolution training.

Generating a street-level 3D scene from a single satellite image is a crucial yet challenging task. Current methods present a stark trade-off: geometry-colorization models achieve high geometric fidelity but are typically building-focused and lack semantic diversity. In contrast, proxy-based models use feed-forward image-to-3D frameworks to generate holistic scenes by jointly learning geometry and texture, a process that yields rich content but coarse and unstable geometry. We attribute these geometric failures to the extreme viewpoint gap and sparse, inconsistent supervision inherent in satellite-to-street data. We introduce Sat3DGen to address these fundamental challenges, which embodies a geometry-first methodology. This methodology enhances the feed-forward paradigm by integrating novel geometric constraints with a perspective-view training strategy, explicitly countering the primary sources of geometric error. This geometry-centric strategy yields a dramatic leap in both 3D accuracy and photorealism. For validation, we first constructed a new benchmark by pairing the VIGOR-OOD test set with high-resolution DSM data. On this benchmark, our method improves geometric RMSE from 6.76m to 5.20m. Crucially, this geometric leap also boosts photorealism, reducing the Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) from sim40 to 19 against the leading method, Sat2Density++, despite using no extra tailored image-quality modules. We demonstrate the versatility of our high-quality 3D assets through diverse downstream applications, including semantic-map-to-3D synthesis, multi-camera video generation, large-scale meshing, and unsupervised single-image Digital Surface Model (DSM) estimation. The code has been released on https://github.com/qianmingduowan/Sat3DGen.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

Remote sensing foundation models (RSFMs) are commonly evaluated using aggregate metrics, which can hide systematic performance disparities across ecological regions. We introduce FairRSFM, a biome-aware benchmark for evaluating ecological group robustness in RSFMs. FairRSFM maps georeferenced samples from 14 terrestrial biome classes into six ecologically meaningful macro-groups and evaluates models under a unified frozen-backbone evaluation protocol. The benchmark covers four downstream datasets: m-EuroSAT, m-BigEarthNet, m-SA-Crop-Type, and MMEarth20K with Dynamic World label maps. Using Prithvi-EO-2.0, SatMAE, and DOFA across three random seeds, we show that aggregate performance consistently masks biome-dependent disparities across architectures and tasks. For example, Prithvi-EO-2.0 reaches 90.98% overall macro-F1 on m-EuroSAT but a mean worst-group score of only 83.72%, while m-SA-Crop-Type drops from 27.30% overall mIoU to 18.47% in the Xeric and Mineralogical group. We further evaluate Biome-Orthogonal Linear Probing (BOLP), Dynamic Biome Reweighting (DBR), and GroupDRO as complementary mitigation baselines. Their effectiveness is model- and task-dependent; for example, BOLP improves Prithvi-EO-2.0 worst-group F1@opt on m-BigEarthNet from 46.12% to 50.27% without updating the RSFM backbone. FairRSFM provides a reusable protocol for diagnosing and mitigating ecological robustness gaps in remote sensing foundation models. Code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/aminurhossain/FairRSFM.

Prediction of stock price and stock price movement patterns has always been a critical area of research. While the well-known efficient market hypothesis rules out any possibility of accurate prediction of stock prices, there are formal propositions in the literature demonstrating accurate modeling of the predictive systems that can enable us to predict stock prices with a very high level of accuracy. In this paper, we present a suite of deep learning-based regression models that yields a very high level of accuracy in stock price prediction. To build our predictive models, we use the historical stock price data of a well-known company listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India during the period December 31, 2012 to January 9, 2015. The stock prices are recorded at five minutes intervals of time during each working day in a week. Using these extremely granular stock price data, we build four convolutional neural network (CNN) and five long- and short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning models for accurate forecasting of the future stock prices. We provide detailed results on the forecasting accuracies of all our proposed models based on their execution time and their root mean square error (RMSE) values.

This study presents the application of generative deep learning techniques to evaluate marine fog visibility nowcasting using the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence interactions in the marine atmosphere) campaign observations collected during July 2022 in the North Atlantic in the Grand Banks area and vicinity of Sable Island (SI), northeast of Canada. The measurements were collected using the Vaisala Forward Scatter Sensor model FD70 and Weather Transmitter model WXT50, and Gill R3A ultrasonic anemometer mounted on the Research Vessel Atlantic Condor. To perform nowcasting, the time series of fog visibility (Vis), wind speed, dew point depression, and relative humidity with respect to water were preprocessed to have lagged time step features. Generative nowcasting of Vis time series for lead times of 30 and 60 minutes were performed using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) regression at visibility thresholds of Vis < 1 km and < 10 km. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used as a baseline method for comparison against cGAN. At the 30 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with cGAN at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.151 km) and with XGBoost at Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 2.821 km). At the 60 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with XGBoost at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.167 km) and Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 3.508 km), but the cGAN RMSE was similar to XGBoost. Despite nowcasting Vis at 30 min being quite difficult, the ability of the cGAN model to track the variation in Vis at 1 km suggests that there is potential for generative analysis of marine fog visibility using observational meteorological parameters.

Objective: We investigate whether deep learning techniques for natural language processing (NLP) can be used efficiently for patient phenotyping. Patient phenotyping is a classification task for determining whether a patient has a medical condition, and is a crucial part of secondary analysis of healthcare data. We assess the performance of deep learning algorithms and compare them with classical NLP approaches. Materials and Methods: We compare convolutional neural networks (CNNs), n-gram models, and approaches based on cTAKES that extract pre-defined medical concepts from clinical notes and use them to predict patient phenotypes. The performance is tested on 10 different phenotyping tasks using 1,610 discharge summaries extracted from the MIMIC-III database. Results: CNNs outperform other phenotyping algorithms in all 10 tasks. The average F1-score of our model is 76 (PPV of 83, and sensitivity of 71) with our model having an F1-score up to 37 points higher than alternative approaches. We additionally assess the interpretability of our model by presenting a method that extracts the most salient phrases for a particular prediction. Conclusion: We show that NLP methods based on deep learning improve the performance of patient phenotyping. Our CNN-based algorithm automatically learns the phrases associated with each patient phenotype. As such, it reduces the annotation complexity for clinical domain experts, who are normally required to develop task-specific annotation rules and identify relevant phrases. Our method performs well in terms of both performance and interpretability, which indicates that deep learning is an effective approach to patient phenotyping based on clinicians' notes.

Recent research on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) has underscored the scarcity of real-world data, often supplemented with synthetic sources in existing datasets, whose generalizability remains however debated. As such, in this work, we propose a novel benchmarking approach: in particular, we aim at building a curated dataset reflecting real world physical temporal dynamics, extracting temporal signals from real-world videos using optical flow. As such, we introduce REAL-V-TSFM, a novel dataset designed to capture rich and diverse time series derived from real-world videos. Experimental results on state-of-the-art TSFMs under zero-shot forecasting show that, despite strong performance on conventional benchmarks, these models exhibit performance degradation on the proposed dataset, suggesting limited generalizability to novel datasets. These findings underscore the need for novel approaches to acquiring time series data and highlight the lack of universality in recent TSFMs, while further validating the effectiveness of our video-based time series data extraction pipeline.

Electroencephalography foundation models (EEG-FMs) have advanced brain signal analysis, but the lack of standardized evaluation benchmarks impedes model comparison and scientific progress. Current evaluations rely on inconsistent protocols that render cross-model comparisons unreliable, while a lack of diagnostic analyses obscures the internal mechanisms driving transfer efficiency and scaling behaviors. To address this, we introduce EEG-FM-Bench, a unified system for the standardized evaluation of EEG-FMs. The benchmark integrates 14 datasets across 10 paradigms and incorporates diverse experimental settings, including multiple fine-tuning strategies, task organizations, and classifier configurations, supported by tools for gradient and representation analysis. Our experiments and analysis reveal several critical insights: (1) multi-task learning acts as a critical regularizer to mitigate overfitting in data-scarce EEG contexts; (2) pre-training efficiency is currently limited by gradient conflicts between reconstruction objectives and downstream tasks; (3) model scaling deviates from typical laws, as compact architectures with domain-specific inductive biases consistently outperform significantly larger models. This benchmark enables fair comparison and reproducible analysis, shifting the field from fragmented results to interpretable advances. Code is available at https://github.com/xw1216/EEG-FM-Bench.

We introduce a comprehensive framework for modeling single cell transcriptomic responses to perturbations, aimed at standardizing benchmarking in this rapidly evolving field. Our approach includes a modular and user-friendly model development and evaluation platform, a collection of diverse perturbational datasets, and a set of metrics designed to fairly compare models and dissect their performance. Through extensive evaluation of both published and baseline models across diverse datasets, we highlight the limitations of widely used models, such as mode collapse. We also demonstrate the importance of rank metrics which complement traditional model fit measures, such as RMSE, for validating model effectiveness. Notably, our results show that while no single model architecture clearly outperforms others, simpler architectures are generally competitive and scale well with larger datasets. Overall, this benchmarking exercise sets new standards for model evaluation, supports robust model development, and furthers the use of these models to simulate genetic and chemical screens for therapeutic discovery.

Foundation Models (FMs) have improved time series forecasting in various sectors, such as finance, but their vulnerability to input disturbances can hinder their adoption by stakeholders, such as investors and analysts. To address this, we propose a causally grounded rating framework to study the robustness of Foundational Models for Time Series (FMTS) with respect to input perturbations. We evaluate our approach to the stock price prediction problem, a well-studied problem with easily accessible public data, evaluating six state-of-the-art (some multi-modal) FMTS across six prominent stocks spanning three industries. The ratings proposed by our framework effectively assess the robustness of FMTS and also offer actionable insights for model selection and deployment. Within the scope of our study, we find that (1) multi-modal FMTS exhibit better robustness and accuracy compared to their uni-modal versions and, (2) FMTS pre-trained on time series forecasting task exhibit better robustness and forecasting accuracy compared to general-purpose FMTS pre-trained across diverse settings. Further, to validate our framework's usability, we conduct a user study showcasing FMTS prediction errors along with our computed ratings. The study confirmed that our ratings reduced the difficulty for users in comparing the robustness of different systems.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series. However, existing TSFMs often incur high computational cost and provide limited support for diverse variable types, often failing to account for covariates that exogenously influence target variability. To address these challenges, we propose CITRAS-FM, a tiny 7M-parameter TSFM that supports univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed zero-shot forecasting with real-time CPU inference. Built on a patch-based, decoder-only Transformer, CITRAS-FM introduces Shifted Attention into the cross-variate module to effectively exploit known covariates accessible throughout the forecast horizon. Moreover, to enable covariate-aware pretraining despite the scarcity of covariate-rich corpora, we propose CovSynth, which synthesizes realistic covariates from decomposed components of target series. Experiments on fev-bench, spanning 100 tasks across various settings, demonstrate that CITRAS-FM achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot accuracy among sub-10M TSFMs while delivering sub-0.1-second CPU inference, offering a strong balance between forecasting accuracy and real-time deployability.

WHO has declared that more than 2.2 billion people worldwide are suffering from visual disorders, such as media haze, glaucoma, and drusen. At least 1 billion of these cases could have been either prevented or successfully treated, yet they remain unaddressed due to poverty, a lack of specialists, inaccurate ocular fundus diagnoses by ophthalmologists, or the presence of a rare disease. To address this, the research has developed the Hybrid Trio-Network Model Algorithm for accurately diagnosing 12 distinct common and rare eye diseases. This algorithm utilized the RFMiD dataset of 3,200 fundus images and the Binary Relevance Method to detect diseases separately, ensuring expandability and avoiding incorrect correlations. Each detector, incorporating finely tuned hyperparameters to optimize performance, consisted of three feature components: A classical transfer learning CNN model, a two-stage CNN model, and a Siamese Network. The diagnosis was made using features extracted through this Trio-Model with Ensembled Machine Learning algorithms. The proposed model achieved an average accuracy of 97% and an AUC score of 0.96. Compared to past benchmark studies, an increase of over 10% in the F1-score was observed for most diseases. Furthermore, using the Siamese Network, the model successfully made predictions in diseases like optic disc pallor, which past studies failed to predict due to low confidence. This diagnostic tool presents a stable, adaptive, cost-effective, efficient, accessible, and fast solution for globalizing early detection of both common and rare diseases.

RMSNorm is used by many LLMs such as Llama, Mistral, and OpenELM. This paper details FlashNorm, which is an exact but faster implementation of RMSNorm followed by linear layers. See https://huggingface.co/open-machine/FlashNorm for code and more transformer tricks.

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure progress, it is essential to be able to study and compare such methods empirically in a comprehensive and reliable manner. To achieve this, we propose TFB, an automated benchmark for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods. TFB advances the state-of-the-art by addressing shortcomings related to datasets, comparison methods, and evaluation pipelines: 1) insufficient coverage of data domains, 2) stereotype bias against traditional methods, and 3) inconsistent and inflexible pipelines. To achieve better domain coverage, we include datasets from 10 different domains: traffic, electricity, energy, the environment, nature, economic, stock markets, banking, health, and the web. We also provide a time series characterization to ensure that the selected datasets are comprehensive. To remove biases against some methods, we include a diverse range of methods, including statistical learning, machine learning, and deep learning methods, and we also support a variety of evaluation strategies and metrics to ensure a more comprehensive evaluations of different methods. To support the integration of different methods into the benchmark and enable fair comparisons, TFB features a flexible and scalable pipeline that eliminates biases. Next, we employ TFB to perform a thorough evaluation of 21 Univariate Time Series Forecasting (UTSF) methods on 8,068 univariate time series and 14 Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) methods on 25 datasets. The benchmark code and data are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TFB. We have also launched an online time series leaderboard: https://decisionintelligence.github.io/OpenTS/OpenTS-Bench/.

We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting. Existing TSFMs suffer from data leakage in two forms: temporal contamination, as the model may have seen the realized values of the series it forecasts, and revision bias, as training on fully revised data diverges from the preliminary, vintage-specific releases available to real-time forecasters. MACROCAST is, to our knowledge, the first TSFM that rules out both forms of leakage entirely: at no stage of training is the model exposed to information that would not have been available to a forecaster in real time. We train MACROCAST first on purely synthetic time series in approximately one GPU-day and then fine-tune it on synthetic time series drawn from Bayesian VARs, dynamic factor models, and ARIMA specifications estimated on vintage-specific ALFRED data. Because pretraining uses only simulated data and fine-tuning uses only real-time vintages, no observed future or revised value ever enters the model; each fine-tuning run takes nine minutes. Evaluated on the FRED-MD database in a genuine real-time out-of-sample exercise, MACROCAST improves on the AR(1) benchmark for roughly 80% of series-horizon pairs, matches or surpasses Chronos-2 -- the strongest currently available TSFM -- and outperforms the Bayesian VAR and dynamic factor model benchmarks, all in a data-leakage-free manner.

Radio-frequency coverage maps (RF maps) are extensively utilized in wireless networks for capacity planning, placement of access points and base stations, localization, and coverage estimation. Conducting site surveys to obtain RF maps is labor-intensive and sometimes not feasible. In this paper, we propose radio-frequency adversarial deep-learning inference for automated network coverage estimation (RADIANCE), a generative adversarial network (GAN) based approach for synthesizing RF maps in indoor scenarios. RADIANCE utilizes a semantic map, a high-level representation of the indoor environment to encode spatial relationships and attributes of objects within the environment and guide the RF map generation process. We introduce a new gradient-based loss function that computes the magnitude and direction of change in received signal strength (RSS) values from a point within the environment. RADIANCE incorporates this loss function along with the antenna pattern to capture signal propagation within a given indoor configuration and generate new patterns under new configuration, antenna (beam) pattern, and center frequency. Extensive simulations are conducted to compare RADIANCE with ray-tracing simulations of RF maps. Our results show that RADIANCE achieves a mean average error (MAE) of 0.09, root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 0.29, peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of 10.78, and multi-scale structural similarity index (MS-SSIM) of 0.80.

FSampler is a training free, sampler agnostic execution layer that accelerates diffusion sampling by reducing the number of function evaluations (NFE). FSampler maintains a short history of denoising signals (epsilon) from recent real model calls and extrapolates the next epsilon using finite difference predictors at second order, third order, or fourth order, falling back to lower order when history is insufficient. On selected steps the predicted epsilon substitutes the model call while keeping each sampler's update rule unchanged. Predicted epsilons are validated for finiteness and magnitude; a learning stabilizer rescales predictions on skipped steps to correct drift, and an optional gradient estimation stabilizer compensates local curvature. Protected windows, periodic anchors, and a cap on consecutive skips bound deviation over the trajectory. Operating at the sampler level, FSampler integrates with Euler/DDIM, DPM++ 2M/2S, LMS/AB2, and RES family exponential multistep methods and drops into standard workflows. FLUX.1 dev, Qwen Image, and Wan 2.2, FSampler reduces time by 8 to 22% and model calls by 15 to 25% at high fidelity (Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) 0.95 to 0.99), without altering sampler formulas. With an aggressive adaptive gate, reductions can reach 45 to 50% fewer model calls at lower fidelity (SSIM 0.73 to 0.74).

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

The rise of imaging techniques such as optical coherence tomography (OCT) and advances in deep learning (DL) have enabled clinicians and researchers to streamline retinal disease staging. A popular DL approach is self-supervised learning (SSL), where models learn from vast amounts of unlabeled data, avoiding costly annotation. SSL has allowed the development of foundation models (FMs), large models that can be used for a variety of downstream tasks. However, existing FMs for OCT, trained solely on image data, lack a comprehensive and robust semantic understanding of images, as evidenced by their downstream performance (especially for complex tasks), and thus require supervised fine-tuning (which may be unfeasible) to better adapt to specific applications and populations. To address this, we propose RetFiner, an SSL vision-language refinement scheme that improves the representations of existing FMs and enables their efficient and direct adaptation to specific populations for improved downstream performance. Our method uses a diverse set of training objectives which take advantage of the rich supervisory signal found in textual data. We tested RetFiner on the retinal FMs RETFound, UrFound, and VisionFM, showing significant improvements in linear probing performance on seven highly diverse OCT classification tasks, with an average increase of 5.8, 3.9, and 2.1 percentage points over their baselines, respectively. Our code and model weights are publicly available at https://github.com/ronnief1/RetFiner.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) represent a new paradigm for time-series forecasting, promising zero-shot predictions without the need for task-specific training or fine-tuning. However, similar to Large Language Models (LLMs), the evaluation of TSFMs is challenging: as training corpora grow increasingly large, it becomes difficult to ensure the integrity of the test sets used for benchmarking. An investigation of existing TSFM evaluation studies identifies two kinds of information leakage: (1) train-test sample overlaps arising from the multi-purpose reuse of datasets and (2) temporal overlap of correlated train and test series. Ignoring these forms of information leakage when benchmarking TSFMs risks producing overly optimistic performance estimates that fail to generalize to real-world settings. We therefore argue for the development of novel evaluation methodologies that avoid pitfalls already observed in both LLM and classical time-series benchmarking, and we call on the research community to adopt principled approaches to safeguard the integrity of TSFM evaluation.

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have the potential to substantially accelerate aircraft wing design, a process that has traditionally required extensive high-fidelity simulation and design iteration. Existing public datasets for ML-based wing design have focused primarily on aerodynamic performance, with limited consideration of the multidisciplinary interactions that govern practical aircraft design. In particular, efficient wing design requires simultaneous consideration of aerodynamic performance and structural integrity, yet no publicly available datasets capture this coupled aerostructural behavior at high-fidelity. To address this need, a high-fidelity multidisciplinary dataset for static aerostructural analysis of transonic wings is introduced. The dataset includes 2471 samples, along with three out-of-distribution samples. The wing planform geometry is parameterized by span, sweep, dihedral, tip chord, and tip twist, while the airfoil cross-sections are parameterized using the class-shape transformation method. The analysis is further parameterized by Mach number, angle of attack, altitude, and structural load factor. The utility of the dataset is demonstrated by training state-of-the-art ML models to predict aerodynamic surface quantities, integrated aerodynamic performance quantities, and the failure distribution of the wingbox. ML models achieve at most 0.0309 normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) in the prediction of aerodynamic quantities and at most 0.1189 NRMSE in the prediction of failure distribution of the wingbox. By providing coupled aerodynamic and structural responses for a diverse set of transonic wings, this dataset establishes a benchmark for developing, evaluating, and comparing multi-physics ML models for wing design. Broadly, it is intended to encourage creation of similar high-fidelity multi-physics benchmark datasets across engineering domains.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Data-driven modeling of fluid dynamics has advanced rapidly with neural PDE solvers, yet a fair and strong benchmark remains fragmented due to the absence of unified PDE datasets and standardized evaluation protocols. Although architectural innovations are abundant, fair assessment is further impeded by the lack of clear disentanglement between spatial, temporal and loss modules. In this paper, we introduce FD-Bench, the first fair, modular, comprehensive and reproducible benchmark for data-driven fluid simulation. FD-Bench systematically evaluates 85 baseline models across 10 representative flow scenarios under a unified experimental setup. It provides four key contributions: (1) a modular design enabling fair comparisons across spatial, temporal, and loss function modules; (2) the first systematic framework for direct comparison with traditional numerical solvers; (3) fine-grained generalization analysis across resolutions, initial conditions, and temporal windows; and (4) a user-friendly, extensible codebase to support future research. Through rigorous empirical studies, FD-Bench establishes the most comprehensive leaderboard to date, resolving long-standing issues in reproducibility and comparability, and laying a foundation for robust evaluation of future data-driven fluid models. The code is open-sourced at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FD-Bench-15BC.

Respiratory acoustic foundation models (FMs) are benchmarked exclusively on smartphone recordings, yet clinical deployment increasingly targets body-coupled (BC) wearables whose sensors attenuate high-frequency content through tissue and bone, leaving FM reliability uncharacterised. We introduce BCoughBench, evaluating five FMs (OPERA-CT/CE/GT, HeAR, M2D+Resp) on nine classification tasks (AUROC, sensitivity at 95% specificity, Expected Calibration Error) and three age regression tasks (MAE vs. a mean-predictor baseline) across five EBEN-simulated BC sensor conditions on five labeled cough datasets. Mean AUROC declines from 0.785 (smartphone) to 0.689-0.723, degrading most under temple vibration pickup (Δ = -0.096) and least under the soft in-ear (Δ = -0.062). No FM meets the clinical sensitivity threshold (Se@Sp95 geq 0.20) on most disease tasks under any BC sensor. Sex classification on the CIDRZ cohort collapses (AUROC 0.954 to 0.596-0.628, Δ = -0.341) while COVID detection is nearly unaffected (Δ = -0.004). Age regression is robust, improving under the forehead accelerometer on CoughVID (MAE 9.61 to 8.97 yr); HeAR leads on regression and demographic tasks, M2D+Resp on disease and characteristic tasks. BCoughBench provides a reproducible framework for FM evaluation under wearable conditions.

This paper presents a challenging multi-agent seasonal dataset collected by a fleet of Ford autonomous vehicles at different days and times during 2017-18. The vehicles traversed an average route of 66 km in Michigan that included a mix of driving scenarios such as the Detroit Airport, freeways, city-centers, university campus and suburban neighbourhoods, etc. Each vehicle used in this data collection is a Ford Fusion outfitted with an Applanix POS-LV GNSS system, four HDL-32E Velodyne 3D-lidar scanners, 6 Point Grey 1.3 MP Cameras arranged on the rooftop for 360-degree coverage and 1 Pointgrey 5 MP camera mounted behind the windshield for the forward field of view. We present the seasonal variation in weather, lighting, construction and traffic conditions experienced in dynamic urban environments. This dataset can help design robust algorithms for autonomous vehicles and multi-agent systems. Each log in the dataset is time-stamped and contains raw data from all the sensors, calibration values, pose trajectory, ground truth pose, and 3D maps. All data is available in Rosbag format that can be visualized, modified and applied using the open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). We also provide the output of state-of-the-art reflectivity-based localization for bench-marking purposes. The dataset can be freely downloaded at our website.

Time series forecasting with pretrained foundation models has demonstrated strong zero-shot capabilities. However, achieving optimal performance on time series with short or negligible historical data in domain-specific applications typically requires adaptation via either fine-tuning or RAG. While fine-tuning is effective, it incurs substantial computational costs. This work explores RAG within univariate time series (Retrieval Augmented Generation) as a more efficient alternative, in particular RAF (Retrieval Augmented Forecasting), and introduces RAEF (Retrieval-Augmented Extended Forecasting), a model-agnostic method built upon RAF. RAEF incorporates key refinements to the retrieval and aggregation mechanisms: (1) direct retrieval in input-space rather than embedding-space, reducing inference overhead, and (2) concatenation-based aggregation that preserves temporal structure instead of averaging. Empirical evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrates that RAEF outperforms RAF in both accuracy and inference overhead. Furthermore, comprehensive comparisons with zero-shot and fine-tuned foundation models show that RAEF achieves competitive or superior performance to fine-tuning while avoiding its computational burden, establishing it as a practical and scalable approach for domain adaptation in time series forecasting.

Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.

We present MarsFM, an image-conditioned latent flow-matching model for local Martian relief estimation from single-band HiRISE RED orthoimagery. The method combines a pretrained generative prior with stereo-derived geometric supervision and a differentiable Lunar--Lambert shading objective. Relief, normal, gradient, curvature, and ordinal terms constrain complementary aspects of terrain structure, while a positive-affine-invariant image comparison constrains rendered appearance. An evaluation comprising 2024 gathered patch records per integration-step count yields mean affine-aligned RMSE between 0.0935 and 0.0957 in normalized signed-log relief space for one to twenty Euler steps. These scores measure agreement with VAE-reconstructed references on positive-reference support. Their narrow range supports low-step inference under this protocol. Spatial, differential, and spectral diagnostics show broad terrain correspondence alongside smoothing, amplitude compression, and boundary mismatch. MarsFM provides a framework for combining learned terrain priors with image-based constraints; establishing improved physical terrain resolution requires matched baselines and independent high-resolution reference data. Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/SuperComputer/mars_hirise_dtm_processed-6aa9b66ba461e07f; code: https://github.com/Marius-Juston/MarsRecon.

In this paper, we present an improved feedforward sequential memory networks (FSMN) architecture, namely Deep-FSMN (DFSMN), by introducing skip connections between memory blocks in adjacent layers. These skip connections enable the information flow across different layers and thus alleviate the gradient vanishing problem when building very deep structure. As a result, DFSMN significantly benefits from these skip connections and deep structure. We have compared the performance of DFSMN to BLSTM both with and without lower frame rate (LFR) on several large speech recognition tasks, including English and Mandarin. Experimental results shown that DFSMN can consistently outperform BLSTM with dramatic gain, especially trained with LFR using CD-Phone as modeling units. In the 2000 hours Fisher (FSH) task, the proposed DFSMN can achieve a word error rate of 9.4% by purely using the cross-entropy criterion and decoding with a 3-gram language model, which achieves a 1.5% absolute improvement compared to the BLSTM. In a 20000 hours Mandarin recognition task, the LFR trained DFSMN can achieve more than 20% relative improvement compared to the LFR trained BLSTM. Moreover, we can easily design the lookahead filter order of the memory blocks in DFSMN to control the latency for real-time applications.

Information tasks such as writing surveys or analytical reports require complex search and reasoning, and have recently been grouped under the umbrella of deep research -- a term also adopted by recent models targeting these capabilities. Despite growing interest, the scope of the deep research task remains underdefined and its distinction from other reasoning-intensive problems is poorly understood. In this paper, we propose a formal characterization of the deep research (DR) task and introduce a benchmark to evaluate the performance of DR systems. We argue that the core defining feature of deep research is not the production of lengthy report-style outputs, but rather the high fan-out over concepts required during the search process, i.e., broad and reasoning-intensive exploration. To enable objective evaluation, we define DR using an intermediate output representation that encodes key claims uncovered during search-separating the reasoning challenge from surface-level report generation. Based on this formulation, we propose a diverse, challenging benchmark LiveDRBench with 100 challenging tasks over scientific topics (e.g., datasets, materials discovery, prior art search) and public interest events (e.g., flight incidents, movie awards). Across state-of-the-art DR systems, F1 score ranges between 0.02 and 0.72 for any sub-category. OpenAI's model performs the best with an overall F1 score of 0.55. Analysis of reasoning traces reveals the distribution over the number of referenced sources, branching, and backtracking events executed by current DR systems, motivating future directions for improving their search mechanisms and grounding capabilities. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/microsoft/LiveDRBench.

During lung radiotherapy, the position of infrared reflective objects on the chest can be recorded to estimate the tumor location. However, radiotherapy systems have a latency inherent to robot control limitations that impedes the radiation delivery precision. Prediction with online learning of recurrent neural networks (RNN) allows for adaptation to non-stationary respiratory signals, but classical methods such as RTRL and truncated BPTT are respectively slow and biased. This study investigates the capabilities of unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO) to forecast respiratory motion and enhance safety in lung radiotherapy. We used 9 observation records of the 3D position of 3 external markers on the chest and abdomen of healthy individuals breathing during intervals from 73s to 222s. The sampling frequency was 10Hz, and the amplitudes of the recorded trajectories range from 6mm to 40mm in the superior-inferior direction. We forecast the 3D location of each marker simultaneously with a horizon value between 0.1s and 2.0s, using an RNN trained with UORO. We compare its performance with an RNN trained with RTRL, LMS, and offline linear regression. We provide closed-form expressions for quantities involved in the loss gradient calculation in UORO, thereby making its implementation efficient. Training and cross-validation were performed during the first minute of each sequence. On average over the horizon values considered and the 9 sequences, UORO achieves the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) error and maximum error among the compared algorithms. These errors are respectively equal to 1.3mm and 8.8mm, and the prediction time per time step was lower than 2.8ms (Dell Intel core i9-9900K 3.60 GHz). Linear regression has the lowest RMS error for the horizon values 0.1s and 0.2s, followed by LMS for horizon values between 0.3s and 0.5s, and UORO for horizon values greater than 0.6s.

We introduce the Cisco Time Series Model, a univariate zero-shot forecaster. This time series foundation model is the result of a general architectural innovation to a time series model enabling it to accept multiresolution input, applied to a popular decoder-only time series model (TimesFM). The resulting multiresolution decoder-only model is trained on over 300B unique data points, with more than half coming from the observability domain. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that the resulting model achieves superior performance on observability datasets while retaining very similar performance on a standard general-purpose forecasting benchmark (GIFT-Eval), and suggest that the multiresolution structure enables the model to make more accurate predictions on long context input.

Reliable automatic seizure detection from long-term EEG remains a challenge, as current machine learning models often fail to generalize across patients or clinical settings. Manual EEG review remains the clinical standard, underscoring the need for robust models and standardized evaluation. To rigorously assess algorithm performance, we organized a challenge using a private dataset of continuous EEG recordings from 65 subjects (4,360 hours). Expert neurophysiologists annotated the data, providing ground truth for seizure events. Participants were required to detect seizure onset and duration, with evaluation based on event-based metrics, including sensitivity, precision, F1-score, and false positives per day. The SzCORE framework ensured standardized evaluation. The primary ranking criterion was the event-based F1-score, reflecting clinical relevance by balancing sensitivity and false positives. The challenge received 30 submissions from 19 teams, with 28 algorithms evaluated. Results revealed wide variability in performance, with a top F1-score of 43% (sensitivity 37%, precision 45%), highlighting the ongoing difficulty of seizure detection. The challenge also revealed a gap between reported performance and real-world evaluation, emphasizing the importance of rigorous benchmarking. Compared to previous challenges and commercial systems, the best-performing algorithm in this contest showed improved performance. Importantly, the challenge platform now supports continuous benchmarking, enabling reproducible research, integration of new datasets, and clinical evaluation of seizure detection algorithms using a standardized framework.

Global climate models parameterize a range of atmospheric-oceanic processes like gravity waves, clouds, moist convection, and turbulence that cannot be sufficiently resolved. These subgrid-scale closures for unresolved processes are a leading source of model uncertainty. Here, we present a new approach to developing machine learning parameterizations of small-scale climate processes by fine-tuning a pre-trained AI foundation model (FM). FMs are largely unexplored in climate research. A pre-trained encoder-decoder from a 2.3 billion parameter FM (NASA and IBM Research's Prithvi WxC) -- which contains a latent probabilistic representation of atmospheric evolution -- is fine-tuned (or reused) to create a deep learning parameterization for atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The parameterization captures GW effects for a coarse-resolution climate model by learning the fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis with 10 times finer resolution. A comparison of monthly averages and instantaneous evolution with a machine learning model baseline (an Attention U-Net) reveals superior predictive performance of the FM parameterization throughout the atmosphere, even in regions excluded from pre-training. This performance boost is quantified using the Hellinger distance, which is 0.11 for the baseline and 0.06 for the fine-tuned model. Our findings emphasize the versatility and reusability of FMs, which could be used to accomplish a range of atmosphere- and climate-related applications, leading the way for the creation of observations-driven and physically accurate parameterizations for more earth-system processes.

We propose a neural network for both forward and inverse continuous nonlinear Fourier transforms, NFT and INFT respectively. We demonstrate the network's capability to perform NFT and INFT for a random mix of NFDM-QAM signals. The network transformations (NFT and INFT) exhibit true characteristics of these transformations; they are significantly different for low and high-power input pulses. The network shows adequate accuracy with an RMSE of 5e-3 for forward and 3e-2 for inverse transforms. We further show that the trained network can be used to perform general nonlinear Fourier transforms on arbitrary pulses beyond the training pulse types.

Time-series foundation models have demonstrated strong cross-domain transfer, yet their common architectural assumptions remain poorly aligned with wearable physiological signals, which are multichannel, irregularly sampled, noisy, and governed by coupled continuous-time dynamics spanning distinct spectral scales. We present SOTER, a generative foundation model for wearable physiological time series that unifies cross-channel coupling, spectrum-guided expert specialization, and continuous-time latent evolution within a single pre-training framework. SOTER combines a spatial feature-aware backbone that models inter-signal dependencies, a power spectral density (PSD)-guided mixture-of-experts layer that routes representations to experts associated with fixed spectral bands through an inspectable, non-learned rule, and a neural controlled differential equation decoder that supports prediction and imputation at arbitrary timestamps. We pre-train SOTER on 226 billion time points from five public physiological datasets and evaluate the same pre-trained model across out-of-distribution zero-shot forecasting, frozen-encoder linear-probe classification, and continuous-time imputation on wearable benchmarks. SOTER achieves the best RMSE on 4 of 6 datasets and the best MAE on 5 of 6 in zero-shot forecasting, the highest average Macro-AUROC in classification, and the lowest imputation error on all six datasets at 75% missingness. It further remains robust to additive acquisition noise, matching or surpassing baselines evaluated on clean inputs even under the strongest corruption. These results indicate that domain-specialized foundation models for wearable physiology benefit from jointly modeling channel structure, spectral scale, and continuous-time dynamics.

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are rapidly transitioning from research prototypes to core components of critical decision-making systems, driven by their impressive zero-shot forecasting capabilities. However, as their deployment surges, a critical blind spot remains: their fragility under adversarial attacks. This lack of scrutiny poses severe risks, particularly as TSFMs enter high-stakes environments vulnerable to manipulation. We present a systematic, diagnostic study arguing that for TSFMs, robustness is not merely a secondary metric but a prerequisite for trustworthy deployment comparable to accuracy. Our evaluation framework, explicitly tailored to the unique constraints of time series, incorporates normalized, sparsity-aware perturbation budgets and unified scale-invariant metrics across white-box and black-box settings. Across six representative TSFMs, we demonstrate that current architectures are alarmingly brittle: even small perturbations can reliably steer forecasts toward specific failure modes, such as trend flips and malicious drifts. We uncover TSFM-specific vulnerability patterns, including horizon-proximal brittleness, increased susceptibility with longer context windows, and weak cross-model transfer that points to model-specific failure modes rather than generic distortions. Finally, we show that simple adversarial fine-tuning offers a cost-effective path to substantial robustness gains, even with out-of-domain data. This work bridges the gap between TSFM capabilities and safety constraints, offering essential guidance for hardening the next generation of forecasting systems.

Time series forecasting is critical across finance, healthcare, and cloud computing, yet progress is constrained by a fundamental bottleneck: the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce QuitoBench, a regime-balanced benchmark for time series forecasting with coverage across eight trendtimesseasonalitytimesforecastability (TSF) regimes, designed to capture forecasting-relevant properties rather than application-defined domain labels. The benchmark is built upon Quito, a billion-scale time series corpus of application traffic from Alipay spanning nine business domains. Benchmarking 10 models from deep learning, foundation models, and statistical baselines across 232,200 evaluation instances, we report four key findings: (i) a context-length crossover where deep learning models lead at short context (L=96) but foundation models dominate at long context (L ge 576); (ii) forecastability is the dominant difficulty driver, producing a 3.64 times MAE gap across regimes; (iii) deep learning models match or surpass foundation models at 59 times fewer parameters; and (iv) scaling the amount of training data provides substantially greater benefit than scaling model size for both model families. These findings are validated by strong cross-benchmark and cross-metric consistency. Our open-source release enables reproducible, regime-aware evaluation for time series forecasting research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

Data-driven weather models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, yet progress has plateaued in recent years. This paper introduces a Mixture of Experts (MoWE) approach as a novel paradigm to overcome these limitations, not by creating a new forecaster, but by optimally combining the outputs of existing models. The MoWE model is trained with significantly lower computational resources than the individual experts. Our model employs a Vision Transformer-based gating network that dynamically learns to weight the contributions of multiple "expert" models at each grid point, conditioned on forecast lead time. This approach creates a synthesized deterministic forecast that is more accurate than any individual component in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method, achieving up to a 10% lower RMSE than the best-performing AI weather model on a 2-day forecast horizon, significantly outperforming individual experts as well as a simple average across experts. This work presents a computationally efficient and scalable strategy to push the state of the art in data-driven weather prediction by making the most out of leading high-quality forecast models.

Full-reference image quality assessment (FR-IQA) generally assumes that reference images are of perfect quality. However, this assumption is flawed due to the sensor and optical limitations of modern imaging systems. Moreover, recent generative enhancement methods are capable of producing images of higher quality than their original. All of these challenge the effectiveness and applicability of current FR-IQA models. To relax the assumption of perfect reference image quality, we build a large-scale IQA database, namely DiffIQA, containing approximately 180,000 images generated by a diffusion-based image enhancer with adjustable hyper-parameters. Each image is annotated by human subjects as either worse, similar, or better quality compared to its reference. Building on this, we present a generalized FR-IQA model, namely Adaptive Fidelity-Naturalness Evaluator (A-FINE), to accurately assess and adaptively combine the fidelity and naturalness of a test image. A-FINE aligns well with standard FR-IQA when the reference image is much more natural than the test image. We demonstrate by extensive experiments that A-FINE surpasses standard FR-IQA models on well-established IQA datasets and our newly created DiffIQA. To further validate A-FINE, we additionally construct a super-resolution IQA benchmark (SRIQA-Bench), encompassing test images derived from ten state-of-the-art SR methods with reliable human quality annotations. Tests on SRIQA-Bench re-affirm the advantages of A-FINE. The code and dataset are available at https://tianhewu.github.io/A-FINE-page.github.io/.

In lung radiotherapy, infrared cameras can track reflective objects on the chest to estimate tumor motion due to breathing, but treatment system latencies hinder radiation beam precision. Real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) is a potential solution that can learn patterns within non-stationary respiratory data but has high complexity. This study assesses the capabilities of resource-efficient online RNN algorithms, namely unbiased online recurrent optimization (UORO), sparse-1 step approximation (SnAp-1), and decoupled neural interfaces (DNI) to forecast respiratory motion during radiotherapy treatment accurately. We use time series containing the 3D positions of external markers on the chest of healthy subjects. We propose efficient implementations for SnAp-1 and DNI that compress the influence and immediate Jacobian matrices and accurately update the linear coefficients used in credit assignment estimation, respectively. Data was originally sampled at 10Hz; we resampled it at 3.33Hz and 30Hz to analyze the effect of the sampling rate on performance. We use UORO, SnAp-1, and DNI to forecast each marker's 3D position with horizons h<=2.1s (the time interval in advance for which the prediction is made) and compare them with RTRL, least mean squares, kernel support vector regression, and linear regression. RNNs trained online achieved similar or better accuracy than most previous works using larger training databases and deep learning, even though we used only the first minute of each sequence to predict motion within that exact sequence. SnAp-1 had the lowest normalized root mean square errors (nRMSEs) averaged over the horizon values considered, equal to 0.335 and 0.157, at 3.33Hz and 10.0Hz, respectively. Similarly, UORO had the lowest nRMSE at 30Hz, equal to 0.086. DNI's inference time (6.8ms per time step at 30Hz, Intel Core i7-13700 CPU) was the lowest among the RNN methods.

We present t_0, a family of open-weights foundation models for forecasting with multivariate context. We release its first two members: t0-alpha and t0-beta, respectively 102M and 256M parameters. Both condition their forecasts on target history, past covariates, and known-future covariates, without task-specific retraining. Their transformer layers alternate attention along time and across variates. They produce probabilistic forecasts through quantile predictions. Pretraining combines curated public data with synthetic generator families constructed to contain covariate-to-target dependencies. On GIFT-Eval, t0-alpha reaches an aggregate CRPS of 0.4941, and t0-beta a CRPS of 0.4738 and a MASE of 0.6865, third on both and within 4.0% of the best zero-shot TSFM. On fev-bench they score 42.2 and 46.7 in skill, the latter third again and 2.0 points behind the leader. We analyze t0-alpha in depth. Known-future covariates raise its skill by 6.3 percentage points across 30 tasks. The report also examines its calibration, its rollout strategy on long horizons, and its robustness to missing data. On the Victoria electricity-demand benchmark, t0-beta is among the most accurate models with a context of nearly a year. In an independent Macrocosm evaluation of hourly ERCOT prices over 29 months, both cut the MAE of the lagged-price baseline by 38%.

Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios.

Generating high-fidelity 3D geometries under explicit parameter constraints is central to engineering design, yet current methods often require large datasets and fail to provide reliable control beyond the training distribution. We introduce LAMP, a data-efficient framework for controllable and interpretable 3D generation that aligns signed distance function (SDF) decoders by overfitting each exemplar from a shared initialization, then generates new designs by solving a parameter-constrained affine mixing problem in the aligned weight space. To improve reliability, we propose a linearity-mismatch safety metric that detects when mixed decoders leave the valid local regime. We evaluate LAMP on DrivAerNet++, BlendedNet, and additional industry-level vehicle families, including sports cars, SUVs, and convertibles. LAMP enables controlled interpolation with as few as 50 samples, safe extrapolation up to 100% beyond training ranges, and performance-guided optimization under fixed parameters, outperforming conditional autoencoder and Deep Network Interpolation (DNI) baselines in extrapolation, data efficiency, and parameter fidelity. Our results demonstrate that LAMP advances controllable, data-efficient, and safe 3D generation for design exploration, dataset generation, and performance-driven optimization.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

Accurate and rapid estimation of hemodynamic metrics, such as pressure and wall shear stress (WSS), is important for assessing the severity of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). Existing approaches, including invasive Fractional Flow Reserve (FFR) measurements and computationally expensive Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, face challenges in invasiveness, cost, and speed. We present a framework for fast, non-invasive coronary hemodynamics prediction. The model encodes 1D vessel centerlines together with inlet flow rate using a transformer-based encoder, and predicts continuous wall-based fields via an anisotropic Radial Basis Function (RBF) decoder aligned with vessel morphology. To support training and evaluation, we introduce two datasets with paired steady-state OpenFOAM simulations: (i) a synthetic benchmark of 4,200 single-vessel geometries with controlled anatomical variations, and (ii) a multi-vessel dataset derived from ImageCAS including 4,800 cases spanning both right and left coronary arteries, generated by randomly introducing stenoses and varying physiologically plausible flow rates. Across both datasets, our method achieves lower pressure and WSS errors than strong neural-operator baselines (GNOT, Transolver, and ONO) at a fraction of the computational cost of CFD. On the multi-vessel dataset, using 1,024 anisotropic RBF centers our model reduces the mean relative L2 error by 52% compared to the best neural-operator baseline, while at 128 centers it requires 13.8x fewer FLOPs than GNOT and still outperforms all baselines. The single-vessel dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/angioinsight/single-vessel-flow.

Monitoring aboveground biomass (AGB) and its density (AGBD) at high resolution is essential for carbon accounting and ecosystem management. While NASA's spaceborne Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) LiDAR mission provides globally distributed reference measurements for AGBD estimation, the majority of commercial remote sensing products based on GEDI remain without rigorous or independent validation. Here, we present an independent regional validation of an AGBD dataset offered by terraPulse, Inc., based on independent reference data from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Aggregated to 64,000-hectare hexagons and US counties across the US states of Utah, Nevada, and Washington, we found very strong agreement between terraPulse and FIA estimates. At the hexagon scale, we report R2 = 0.88, RMSE = 26.68 Mg/ha, and a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.94. At the county scale, agreement improves to R2 = 0.90, RMSE =32.62 Mg/ha, slope = 1.07, and r = 0.95. Spatial and statistical analyses indicated that terraPulse AGBD values tended to exceed FIA estimates in non-forest areas, likely due to FIA's limited sampling of non-forest vegetation. The terraPulse AGBD estimates also exhibited lower values in high-biomass forests, likely due to saturation effects in its optical remote-sensing covariates. This study advances operational carbon monitoring by delivering a scalable framework for comprehensive AGBD validation using independent FIA data, as well as a benchmark validation of a new commercial dataset for global biomass monitoring.

Fast feedforward networks (FFFs) are a class of neural networks that exploit the observation that different regions of the input space activate distinct subsets of neurons in wide networks. FFFs partition the input space into separate sections using a differentiable binary tree of neurons and during inference descend the binary tree in order to improve computational efficiency. Inspired by Mixture of Experts (MoE) research, we propose the incorporation of load balancing and Master Leaf techniques into the FFF architecture to improve performance and simplify the training process. We reproduce experiments found in literature and present results on FFF models enhanced using these techniques. The proposed architecture and training recipe achieves up to 16.3% and 3% absolute classification accuracy increase in training and test accuracy, respectively, compared to the original FFF architecture. Additionally, we observe a smaller variance in the results compared to those reported in prior research. These findings demonstrate the potential of integrating MoE-inspired techniques into FFFs for developing more accurate and efficient models.

Recent vision foundation models (VFMs), typically based on Vision Transformer (ViT), have significantly advanced numerous computer vision tasks. Despite their success in tasks focused solely on RGB images, the potential of VFMs in RGB-depth driving scene parsing remains largely under-explored. In this article, we take one step toward this emerging research area by investigating a feasible technique to fully exploit VFMs for generalizable RGB-depth driving scene parsing. Specifically, we explore the inherent characteristics of RGB and depth data, thereby presenting a Heterogeneous Feature Integration Transformer (HFIT). This network enables the efficient extraction and integration of comprehensive heterogeneous features without re-training ViTs. Relative depth prediction results from VFMs, used as inputs to the HFIT side adapter, overcome the limitations of the dependence on depth maps. Our proposed HFIT demonstrates superior performance compared to all other traditional single-modal and data-fusion scene parsing networks, pre-trained VFMs, and ViT adapters on the Cityscapes and KITTI Semantics datasets. We believe this novel strategy paves the way for future innovations in VFM-based data-fusion techniques for driving scene parsing. Our source code is publicly available at https://mias.group/HFIT.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions: constrained data composition dominated by reused legacy sources, compromised data integrity lacking rigorous quality assurance, misaligned task formulations detached from real-world contexts, and rigid analysis perspectives that obscure generalizable insights. To bridge these gaps, we introduce TIME, a next-generation task-centric benchmark comprising 50 fresh datasets and 98 forecasting tasks, tailored for strict zero-shot TSFM evaluation free from data leakage. Integrating large language models and human expertise, we establish a rigorous human-in-the-loop benchmark construction pipeline to ensure high data integrity and redefine task formulation by aligning forecasting configurations with real-world operational requirements and variate predictability. Furthermore, we propose a novel pattern-level evaluation perspective that moves beyond traditional dataset-level evaluations based on static meta labels. By leveraging structural time series features to characterize intrinsic temporal properties, this approach offers generalizable insights into model capabilities across diverse patterns. We evaluate 12 representative TSFMs and establish a multi-granular leaderboard to facilitate in-depth analysis and visualized inspection. The leaderboard is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Real-TSF/TIME-leaderboard.

We present Cadence, an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series pairing a 330M-parameter time-series foundation model (Google TimesFM-3) with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing |x_t-x_t|leτ on every sample. One negative result constrains the design space: for lossless coding a foundation model is worth nothing, because bits saved are logarithmic in predictor accuracy, Δb=log_2(MAE_{old}/MAE_{new}). So the 1.51times advantage TimesFM-3 holds over a 32-tap linear predictor buys 0.60 bits of 20.28, a median gain of +0.03%. Error-bounded coding escapes this at one point: once a forecast lands inside the band the residual index is zero and the sample nearly free. Cadence contributes: (1) an adaptive range coder with context-modelled binarization, beating xz/zstd on real indices by 9.7% (15/15) and reversing a finding from a general-purpose back end; (2) a determinism result -- predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes, and no PyTorch configuration repairs this, forcing group size and execution device into the container format; and (3) domain localization on corpora postdating any plausible training cutoff. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series (2026) Cadence gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors, and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series (2026): 21.4% median over 297 series-tolerance pairs, winning all 297. Against downsampling, what time-series databases deploy for retention, its guaranteed worst-case error is 28--56times tighter at equal size. End-to-end, once the context bootstrap is paid for, gains run from 6.8% at six months of hourly data to 15.1% asymptotically. Attempting to falsify the domain claim on SDRBench, theory predicts failure and delivers: -0.8% median, 0 of 27 pairs gaining. Three further negative results and eight retracted claims are reported in full.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a cost-effective, highly accessible and widely employed diagnostic tool. With the advent of Foundation Models (FMs), the field of AI-assisted ECG interpretation has begun to evolve, as they enable model reuse across different tasks by relying on embeddings. However, to responsibly employ FMs, it is crucial to rigorously assess to which extent the embeddings they produce are generalizable, particularly in error-sensitive domains such as healthcare. Although prior works have already addressed the problem of benchmarking ECG-expert FMs, they focus predominantly on the evaluation of downstream performance. To fill this gap, this study aims to find an in-depth, comprehensive benchmarking framework for FMs, with a specific focus on ECG-expert ones. To this aim, we introduce a benchmark methodology that complements performance-based evaluation with representation-level analysis, leveraging SHAP and UMAP techniques. Furthermore, we rely on the methodology for carrying out an extensive evaluation of several ECG-expert FMs pretrained via state-of-the-art techniques over different cross-continental datasets and data availability settings; this includes ones featuring data scarcity, a fairly common situation in real-world medical scenarios. Experimental results show that our benchmarking protocol provides a rich insight of ECG-expert FMs' embedded patterns, enabling a deeper understanding of their representational structure and generalizability.

One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed with local neural interactions, like 3D convolutions or 3D local attention windows as in Pangu-Weather. On the other hand, some works have shown great success in weather forecasting without this locality principle, at the cost of a much higher parameter count. In this paper, we show that the 3D local processing in Pangu-Weather is computationally sub-optimal. We design ArchesWeather, a transformer model that combines 2D attention with a column-wise attention-based feature interaction module, and demonstrate that this design improves forecasting skill. ArchesWeather is trained at 1.5° resolution and 24h lead time, with a training budget of a few GPU-days and a lower inference cost than competing methods. An ensemble of four of our models shows better RMSE scores than the IFS HRES and is competitive with the 1.4° 50-members NeuralGCM ensemble for one to three days ahead forecasting. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/gcouairon/ArchesWeather.

Vision-language models (VLMs) can ingest only a limited number of video frames, making frame selection a practical necessity. But do current Video QA benchmarks genuinely require temporal frame selection, or can most questions be answered regardless of which frames are shown? We introduce Frame Selection Sensitivity (FSS), a per-sample diagnostic that measures how much VLM accuracy changes when the most relevant frames are replaced with the least relevant ones. Across six benchmarks and eight VLMs, we find that a large majority of samples are frame-agnostic: only a minority are genuinely sensitive to frame choice. Combining FSS with a Language Independence Score (LIS) reveals that merely 5.5--31% of samples are Temporally Sensitive. We construct TempCore, compact evaluation subsets that isolate these temporal samples from existing benchmarks, and will release code and per-sample annotations upon publication.

The Flooded Road Environments Dataset (FRED) is, to our knowledge, the first multi-modal autonomous driving dataset specifically targeting the collection of data from scenarios involving water hazards on the road. The dataset contains images from a 2.3 MP FLIR Blackfly USB3 camera, 64-beam 360^circ point clouds from an Ouster OS1-64 LiDAR, and data from an iXblue ATLANS-C IMU corrected by a Geoflex RTK GNSS, from five separate locations captured both during and after flooding events. The data has been released in two formats: a KITTI-style format for easy integration with existing data tools, and the RTMaps format for direct replay of the vehicle's data capture. We provide semantic labels to enable the training and evaluation of both single-sensor and sensor-fusion methods for water hazard detection. Position and velocity, as well as data captured under dry conditions, are provided to enable the development of location-based detection methods that may incorporate maps, and to evaluate other tasks such as localisation and SLAM.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. sim40.2%to56.6%), validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of multivariate modeling using time series foundation models (TSFMs), which achieve advanced zero-shot generalization. Modern multivariate TSFMs are predominantly pretrained on multivariate synthetic data, which is easier to scale but may fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and cross-variable relationships present in real-world time series. This raises a key question: Whether and to what extent the leading TSFMs trained with the real-world corpus perform better than those trained with synthetic data? To answer this, we establish the RMISC corpus, a considerably large-scale, high-quality, openly accessible, real-world, and multivariate time series archive that contains around 200 datasets and 142 billion time points across diverse domains. Furthermore, we pretrain four advanced TSFMs on univariate, synthetic multivariate, and real-world multivariate data and evaluate their zero-shot generalization capabilities on standard in-distribution and out-of-distribution benchmarks. Experimental results show that incorporating real-world multivariate data predominantly improves the generalization performance for both univariate and multivariate TSFMs. These results provide a deeper understanding of how real-world multivariate data contributes to the development of stronger TSFMs.

Machine learning (ML) models have become increasingly valuable in weather forecasting, providing forecasts that not only lower computational costs but often match or exceed the accuracy of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Despite their potential, ML models typically suffer from limitations such as coarse temporal resolution, typically 6 hours, and a limited set of meteorological variables, limiting their practical applicability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce FuXi-2.0, an advanced ML model that delivers 1-hourly global weather forecasts and includes a comprehensive set of essential meteorological variables, thereby expanding its utility across various sectors like wind and solar energy, aviation, and marine shipping. Our study conducts comparative analyses between ML-based 1-hourly forecasts and those from the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for various practical scenarios. The results demonstrate that FuXi-2.0 consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in forecasting key meteorological variables relevant to these sectors. In particular, FuXi-2.0 shows superior performance in wind power forecasting compared to ECMWF HRES, further validating its efficacy as a reliable tool for scenarios demanding precise weather forecasts. Additionally, FuXi-2.0 also integrates both atmospheric and oceanic components, representing a significant step forward in the development of coupled atmospheric-ocean models. Further comparative analyses reveal that FuXi-2.0 provides more accurate forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity than its predecessor, FuXi-1.0, suggesting that there are benefits of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model over atmosphere-only models.

Financial return forecasting is a difficult test case for time-series foundation models (TSFMs) due to low signal-to-noise ratios, structural breaks, heavy tails, and weak persistence. This paper benchmarks pretrained TSFMs against train-from-scratch neural baselines in a deliberately conservative financial setting. We evaluate TimeGPT/TimeGPT-LH, TimesFM-2.5, Moirai-2.0, Chronos, and Chronos-2 against NBEATS, NHITS, PatchTST, iTransformer, and KAN on five liquid U.S. equities (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, JPM, META) using linear and log returns. Models are compared under an equalized context budget, a rolling-origin protocol, and against random-walk benchmarks. We provide a theoretical framing of pretraining as an inductive prior, linking PAC-Bayes transfer intuition, information-theoretic predictability limits, and attention geometry. This clarifies why strong model rankings need not imply economically meaningful predictability in noisy markets. Pragmatically, pretrained TSFMs dominate the ranking distribution, accounting for 8 of 10 task-level wins. Moirai-2.0 and TimesFM-2.5 achieve the strongest average ranks, leading tasks for AAPL, JPM, GOOG, and AMZN, while Chronos wins the remaining AMZN task. However, the iTransformer baseline wins both META tasks, showing local supervised learning can still outperform generic pretraining for specific assets. Crucially, gains over the random-walk benchmark are small and sparse. A one-sided Diebold-Mariano test rejects equal or inferior predictive accuracy only for Chronos on AMZN and Moirai-2.0 on GOOG. We conclude that TSFMs serve as useful practical priors that reduce model-development costs in low-data financial forecasting, but are not universal engines for statistically reliable alpha generation in realistic empirical deployment.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated train and test time series. To address this, we introduce TS-Arena, a live forecasting platform that shifts evaluation from the known past to the unknown future. Building on the concept of continuous benchmarking, TS-Arena evaluates models on future data. Crucially, we introduce a strict forecasting pre-registration protocol: models must submit predictions before the ground-truth data physically exists. This makes test-set contamination impossible by design. The platform relies on a modular microservice architecture that harmonizes and structures data from different sources and orchestrates containerized model submissions. By enforcing a strict pre-registration protocol on live data streams, TS-Arena prevents information leakage offers a faster alternative to traditional static, infrequently repeated competitions (e.g. the M-Competitions). First empirical results derived from operating TS-Arena over one year of energy time series demonstrate that established TSFMs accumulate robust longitudinal scores over time, while the continuous nature of the benchmark simultaneously allows newcomers to demonstrate immediate competitiveness. TS-Arena provides the necessary infrastructure to assess the true generalization capabilities of modern forecasting models. The platform and corresponding code are available at https://ts-arena.live/.

We introduce VZCrash, the largest publicly available dataset of real-world vehicle collision data featuring Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) telemetry. The dataset contains more than 31,000 validated crashes and 158,000 negative samples, including hard cases and distractors. Each sample includes acceleration and angular velocity at 100 Hz, and GPS speed at 1 Hz. Events in VZCrash were captured by devices installed on a fleet of 73,010 commercial vehicles of different sizes driving in the United States over the span of several years. We also present an extensive experimental study enabled by the volume of the dataset. We first benchmark several different approaches, from a simple threshold-based heuristic to state-of-the-art deep learning models. Then, we present an experiment demonstrating the importance of scaling data to train high-quality crash detection models, and we show that scale is especially important when these models need to be deployed into a real-world environment.

Machine Learning (ML) has the potential to revolutionise the field of automotive aerodynamics, enabling split-second flow predictions early in the design process. However, the lack of open-source training data for realistic road cars, using high-fidelity CFD methods, represents a barrier to their development. To address this, a high-fidelity open-source (CC-BY-SA) public dataset for automotive aerodynamics has been generated, based on 500 parametrically morphed variants of the widely-used DrivAer notchback generic vehicle. Mesh generation and scale-resolving CFD was executed using consistent and validated automatic workflows representative of the industrial state-of-the-art. Geometries and rich aerodynamic data are published in open-source formats. To our knowledge, this is the first large, public-domain dataset for complex automotive configurations generated using high-fidelity CFD.

Foundation models (FMs) provide societal benefits but also amplify risks. Governments, companies, and researchers have proposed regulatory frameworks, acceptable use policies, and safety benchmarks in response. However, existing public benchmarks often define safety categories based on previous literature, intuitions, or common sense, leading to disjointed sets of categories for risks specified in recent regulations and policies, which makes it challenging to evaluate and compare FMs across these benchmarks. To bridge this gap, we introduce AIR-Bench 2024, the first AI safety benchmark aligned with emerging government regulations and company policies, following the regulation-based safety categories grounded in our AI risks study, AIR 2024. AIR 2024 decomposes 8 government regulations and 16 company policies into a four-tiered safety taxonomy with 314 granular risk categories in the lowest tier. AIR-Bench 2024 contains 5,694 diverse prompts spanning these categories, with manual curation and human auditing to ensure quality. We evaluate leading language models on AIR-Bench 2024, uncovering insights into their alignment with specified safety concerns. By bridging the gap between public benchmarks and practical AI risks, AIR-Bench 2024 provides a foundation for assessing model safety across jurisdictions, fostering the development of safer and more responsible AI systems.

Visible-infrared image pairs provide complementary information, enhancing the reliability and robustness of object detection applications in real-world scenarios. However, most existing methods face challenges in maintaining robustness under complex weather conditions, which limits their applicability. Meanwhile, the reliance on attention mechanisms in modality fusion introduces significant computational complexity and storage overhead, particularly when dealing with high-resolution images. To address these challenges, we propose the Cross-modality Fusion Mamba with Weather-removal (CFMW) to augment stability and cost-effectiveness under adverse weather conditions. Leveraging the proposed Perturbation-Adaptive Diffusion Model (PADM) and Cross-modality Fusion Mamba (CFM) modules, CFMW is able to reconstruct visual features affected by adverse weather, enriching the representation of image details. With efficient architecture design, CFMW is 3 times faster than Transformer-style fusion (e.g., CFT). To bridge the gap in relevant datasets, we construct a new Severe Weather Visible-Infrared (SWVI) dataset, encompassing diverse adverse weather scenarios such as rain, haze, and snow. The dataset contains 64,281 paired visible-infrared images, providing a valuable resource for future research. Extensive experiments on public datasets (i.e., M3FD and LLVIP) and the newly constructed SWVI dataset conclusively demonstrate that CFMW achieves state-of-the-art detection performance. Both the dataset and source code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/lhy-zjut/CFMW.