Daily Papers

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) introduces a specific failure mode in discrete diffusion language models: when retrieved context contradicts parametric knowledge, the iterative denoising process becomes a visible battleground between competing knowledge sources. We identify temporal semantic divergence as an observable for detecting these conflicts and introduce the Trajectory Variance Score (TVS), a simple and interpretable measure of this divergence. TVS computes the mean pairwise cosine distance of answer embeddings across independent stochastic denoising trajectories, capturing the temporal tug of war between parametric and contextual attractors. Requiring as few as two parallel inference runs, TVS is computationally lightweight. Across four diverse datasets (Synthetic, SciQ, PopQA, and CounterFact), a simple Logistic Regression classifier using TVS achieves 70.10% accuracy and 0.7647 AUROC on LLaDA. On Dream 7B, increasing the number of trajectories from two to five improves accuracy from 63.91% to 69.62%. More complex sequential models provide only marginal improvements over the linear classifier. Evaluation across LLaDA and Dream 7B demonstrates that conflict-induced trajectory dynamics and their key properties transfer across distinct diffusion architectures.

Large multimodal reasoning models have achieved rapid progress, but their advancement is constrained by two major limitations: the absence of open, large-scale, high-quality long chain-of-thought (CoT) data, and the instability of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms in post-training. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), the standard framework for RL fine-tuning, is prone to gradient vanishing when reward variance is low, which weakens optimization signals and impairs convergence. This work makes three contributions: (1) We propose Variance-Aware Sampling (VAS), a data selection strategy guided by Variance Promotion Score (VPS) that combines outcome variance and trajectory diversity to promote reward variance and stabilize policy optimization. (2) We release large-scale, carefully curated resources containing ~1.6M long CoT cold-start data and ~15k RL QA pairs, designed to ensure quality, difficulty, and diversity, along with a fully reproducible end-to-end training codebase. (3) We open-source a family of multimodal reasoning models in multiple scales, establishing standardized baselines for the community. Experiments across mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of both the curated data and the proposed VAS. Comprehensive ablation studies and analyses provide further insight into the contributions of each component. In addition, we theoretically establish that reward variance lower-bounds the expected policy gradient magnitude, with VAS serving as a practical mechanism to realize this guarantee. Our code, data, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/LengSicong/MMR1.

Scaling Diffusion Transformers (DiTs) to hundreds of layers introduces a structural vulnerability: networks can enter a silent, mean-dominated collapse state that homogenizes token representations and suppresses centered variation. Through mechanistic auditing, we isolate the trigger event of this collapse as Mean Mode Screaming (MMS). MMS can occur even when training appears stable, with a mean-coherent backward shock on residual writers that opens deep residual branches and drives the network into a mean-dominated state. We show this behavior is driven by an exact decomposition of these gradients into mean-coherent and centered components, compounded by the structural suppression of attention-logit gradients through the null space of the Softmax Jacobian once values homogenize. To address this, we propose Mean-Variance Split (MV-Split) Residuals, which combine a separately gained centered residual update with a leaky trunk-mean replacement. On a 400-layer single-stream DiT, MV-Split prevents the divergent collapse that crashes the un-stabilized baseline; it tracks close to the baseline's pre-crash trajectory while remaining substantially better than token-isotropic gating methods such as LayerScale across the full schedule. Finally, we present a 1000-layer DiT as a scale-validation run at boundary scales, establishing that the architecture remains stably trainable at extreme depth.

Recent advancements in tree search algorithms guided by verifiers have significantly enhanced the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but at the cost of increased computational resources. In this work, we identify two key challenges contributing to this inefficiency: over-exploration due to redundant states with semantically equivalent content, and under-exploration caused by high variance in verifier scoring leading to frequent trajectory switching. To address these issues, we propose FETCH, an efficient tree search framework, which is a flexible, plug-and-play system compatible with various tree search algorithms. Our framework mitigates over-exploration by merging semantically similar states using agglomerative clustering of text embeddings obtained from a fine-tuned SimCSE model. To tackle under-exploration, we enhance verifiers by incorporating temporal difference learning with adjusted lambda-returns during training to reduce variance, and employing a verifier ensemble to aggregate scores during inference. Experiments on GSM8K, GSM-Plus, and MATH datasets demonstrate that our methods significantly improve reasoning accuracy and computational efficiency across four different tree search algorithms, paving the way for more practical applications of LLM-based reasoning. The code is available at https://github.com/Soistesimmer/Fetch.

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

Robust pedestrian trajectory forecasting is crucial to developing safe autonomous vehicles. Although previous works have studied adversarial robustness in the context of trajectory forecasting, some significant issues remain unaddressed. In this work, we try to tackle these crucial problems. Firstly, the previous definitions of robustness in trajectory prediction are ambiguous. We thus provide formal definitions for two kinds of robustness, namely label robustness and pure robustness. Secondly, as previous works fail to consider robustness about all points in a disturbance interval, we utilise a probably approximately correct (PAC) framework for robustness verification. Additionally, this framework can not only identify potential counterexamples, but also provides interpretable analyses of the original methods. Our approach is applied using a prototype tool named TrajPAC. With TrajPAC, we evaluate the robustness of four state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models -- Trajectron++, MemoNet, AgentFormer, and MID -- on trajectories from five scenes of the ETH/UCY dataset and scenes of the Stanford Drone Dataset. Using our framework, we also experimentally study various factors that could influence robustness performance.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

In this work, we propose a novel Trajectory Score Matching (TSM) method that aims to solve the pseudo ground truth inconsistency problem caused by the accumulated error in Interval Score Matching (ISM) when using the Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) inversion process. Unlike ISM which adopts the inversion process of DDIM to calculate on a single path, our TSM method leverages the inversion process of DDIM to generate two paths from the same starting point for calculation. Since both paths start from the same starting point, TSM can reduce the accumulated error compared to ISM, thus alleviating the problem of pseudo ground truth inconsistency. TSM enhances the stability and consistency of the model's generated paths during the distillation process. We demonstrate this experimentally and further show that ISM is a special case of TSM. Furthermore, to optimize the current multi-stage optimization process from high-resolution text to 3D generation, we adopt Stable Diffusion XL for guidance. In response to the issues of abnormal replication and splitting caused by unstable gradients during the 3D Gaussian splatting process when using Stable Diffusion XL, we propose a pixel-by-pixel gradient clipping method. Extensive experiments show that our model significantly surpasses the state-of-the-art models in terms of visual quality and performance. Code: https://github.com/xingy038/Dreamer-XL.

Time series foundation models are becoming increasingly popular for general-purpose forecasting. However, most leading models predict marginal quantiles, leaving the dependence structure of future trajectories unspecified. This distinction matters for trajectory-dependent quantities such as cumulative demand, peak load, and event timing, yet point and marginal scores do not reveal it. To model this dependence, we introduce PathFM, a trajectory-based forecasting model that uses flow matching to generate complete future paths. We further distill the model to one or two steps and share history attention cache across draws. Together, these enable PathFM to generate multiple paths for a single series in roughly the time needed for one query to a quantile model. The distilled sampler also makes it practical to optimize a calibration loss directly. PathFM achieves competitive marginal accuracy on the established forecasting benchmarks fev-bench and TIME. To complement these evaluations, we introduce Forecast Path Score Bench (fps-bench), which augments fev-bench tasks with energy and variogram scores and downstream metrics. PathFM achieves a higher aggregate path score on fps-bench than all evaluated external baselines. Experiments on chaotic systems further show that our flow model sustains long-run variability, while strong baselines rapidly collapse. PathFM makes generative time series forecasting both competitive and practical, enabling diverse downstream applications.

Evaluation of software engineering (SWE) agents is dominated by a binary signal: whether the final patch passes the tests. This outcome-only view treats a principled solution and a chaotic trial-and-error process as equivalent. We show that this equivalence is empirically false. We evaluate 2,614 OpenHands trajectories from eight model backends on 60 SWE-bench Verified tasks. Of these, 47 have enough passing trajectories to construct task-level process references, yielding a 1,815-trajectory evaluation subset. Among passing trajectories in this subset, 10.7% exhibit behavior we call a Lucky Pass: regression cycles, blind retries, missing verification, or temporally disordered exploration, implementation, and verification. We introduce AgentLens, a framework for process-level assessment of SWE-agent trajectories, and release AgentLens-Bench, a dataset of 1,815 trajectories annotated with quality scores, waste signals, divergence points, and 47 task-level Prefix Tree Acceptor (PTA) references. AgentLens builds PTA references by merging multiple passing solutions for the same task, and uses a context-sensitive intent labeler to assign actions to Exploration, Implementation, Verification, or Orchestration based on trajectory history rather than tool identity alone. On AgentLens-Bench, the quality score separates passing trajectories into Lucky, Solid, and Ideal tiers and further decomposes Lucky Passes into five recurring mechanisms. Across the eight model backends, Lucky rates range from 0.5% to 23.2%, and some models move by as many as five rank positions when ranked by quality score instead of pass rate. We release the anonymized project repository, including the AgentLens-Bench dataset and AgentLens SDK, at https://github.com/microsoft/code-agent-state-trajectories/.

Urban mobility is naturally expressed both as trajectories in space and as natural-language descriptions of travel intent, constraints, and preferences. However, prior work rarely evaluates these two modalities together on the same real-world trajectories: trajectory modeling often stays geometry-centric, while language-centric mobility benchmarks frequently target route planning and tool use rather than fine-grained, verifiable alignment between text and the underlying route. We introduce TrajPrism, a multi-task benchmark for language-trajectory alignment that unifies (i) instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, (ii) language-driven semantic trajectory retrieval, and (iii) trajectory captioning, together with an evaluation protocol that measures trajectory fidelity, retrieval quality, and language groundedness. We construct TrajPrism by pairing real urban trajectories with judge-filtered language annotations generated under a four-dimensional travel-intent taxonomy. The benchmark contains 300K selected trajectories across Porto, San Francisco, and Beijing, yielding 2.1M task instances from three instruction variants, three retrieval queries, and one caption per trajectory. We further develop proof-of-concept models for each task: TrajAnchor for instruction-conditioned trajectory generation, TrajFuse for semantic trajectory retrieval, and TrajRap for trajectory captioning. These models instantiate the proposed tasks and show that geometry-only trajectory baselines leave a large gap on our protocol, especially where language is part of the input-output interface. We release TrajPrism with code and a reproducible annotation pipeline that is designed to be portable across cities, given compatible trajectory inputs and map resources.

This paper presents the development of a comprehensive dataset capturing interactions between Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and traffic control devices, specifically traffic lights and stop signs. Derived from the Waymo Motion dataset, our work addresses a critical gap in the existing literature by providing real-world trajectory data on how AVs navigate these traffic control devices. We propose a methodology for identifying and extracting relevant interaction trajectory data from the Waymo Motion dataset, incorporating over 37,000 instances with traffic lights and 44,000 with stop signs. Our methodology includes defining rules to identify various interaction types, extracting trajectory data, and applying a wavelet-based denoising method to smooth the acceleration and speed profiles and eliminate anomalous values, thereby enhancing the trajectory quality. Quality assessment metrics indicate that trajectories obtained in this study have anomaly proportions in acceleration and jerk profiles reduced to near-zero levels across all interaction categories. By making this dataset publicly available, we aim to address the current gap in datasets containing AV interaction behaviors with traffic lights and signs. Based on the organized and published dataset, we can gain a more in-depth understanding of AVs' behavior when interacting with traffic lights and signs. This will facilitate research on AV integration into existing transportation infrastructures and networks, supporting the development of more accurate behavioral models and simulation tools.

Learning-based planners for sidewalk navigation can generate diverse candidate trajectories in real time, yet their scoring functions often fail to select the best trajectory in challenging situations, outputting trajectories that make the mobile robot drive onto grass, toward pedestrians, or in the wrong direction, even when better candidates exist in the same set. We call this the trajectory scoring gap: in real-world sidewalk navigation, the gap between an anchor-based planner's top choice and the best possible candidate is substantial, likely due to limited high-level scene understanding capability of the planner. Rather than replacing the planner with an end-to-end Vision-Language-Action model, we propose a VLM-Planner interface that uses a VLM to select a candidate index from the planner's proposal set and then fuse it with the planner's initial output. However, VLMs take 1--3s per query and so cannot directly drive a 5--20Hz control loop. We contribute a training-free, latency-resilient trajectory-level fusion layer that turns a stale VLM selection into real-time planner scoring via geometric similarity with exponential decay. On sim2,000 challenging real-world scenarios (e.g., junctions, pedestrian encounters), VLM selection achieves 30% ADE reduction versus the planner's best selection, while the planner remains competitive in routine situations. In simulation, Score Fusion maintains >80% success rate with delays up to 5s. We demonstrate the full system on a mobile robot navigating challenging campus sidewalks with varied network latency.

We introduce a vocabulary for automated research systems built from one or more agents to make their design choices easier to describe and compare. The vocabulary specifies 1) who the agents are, 2) what operations are available in the system, 3) who may invoke them, 4) how agents communicate, 5) what information is visible within and across runs, 6) how the next action is chosen, 7) how a run begins, and 8) how outputs are evaluated. A trajectory records one run from the input task to the returned artifact. Because agents, operations, and initialization may be stochastic, repeated runs on the same task induce a distribution over trajectories rather than a single behavior. Our vocabulary turns structural design questions, such as when agents should communicate, gain or lose a capability, or carry information across runs, into testable choices. It also makes the evaluator a component of the system, since reported gains depend on how closely the proxy score matches true quality. That separation also splits the vague complaint that these systems lack taste into two failures with different solutions. Generative taste is the rate at which a system proposes novel trajectories before any score is observed, and evaluative taste is the gap between the proxy score and the quality it should match. We instantiate the vocabulary on recent autoresearch systems to illustrate that it covers designs that differ widely in structure.

Mobility simulation supports logistics, safety, and communications planning in industrial environments such as ports, mines, and airports. Existing trajectory models, however, rely on absolute coordinates, road-network tokens, or semantic zones: representations that are site-specific and not well suited to unstructured industrial terrain. We introduce the Industrial Kinematic Trajectory Model (IKTM), a coordinate-free trajectory generator that represents industrial vehicle motion through kinematic sequences (speed and heading change) with no absolute spatial reference. IKTM uses an autoregressive causal transformer with probabilistic mixture heads and extends our prior coordinate-free Markovian model with deep sequence modelling and an explicit duration-conditioning signal. Trained on one site and evaluated zero-shot on three unseen sites, it matches the small-turn shape of the empirical turn-rate distributions of held-out telematics; across all four sites, the per-site mean Jensen-Shannon divergence over 100 sampling seeds spans approximately 0.035-0.050 bits under an oracle-length duration-target protocol and approximately 0.032-0.042 bits under a fully zero-shot prior-length protocol, with similar ranges whether out-of-distribution (OOD) duration targets are drawn from each held-out site's empirical length distribution or from the Site A prior. Both protocols stay above the metric's sampling-noise floor (<=0.0049 bits). Paired by site, the oracle-length values are 5.3-6.0x lower than those of a re-implementation of our prior Markovian model under the same 1 Hz protocol. Termination is duration-conditioned rather than spatial: rollouts stop on 100% of trials with a length-tracking error of +0.0 +/- 0.0 s against the sampled target (100 of 100 exactly on target; N=100, T=0.2, untouched in-distribution test split).

Real-world data deviating from the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption of in-distribution training data poses security threats to deep networks, thus advancing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection algorithms. Detection methods in generative language models (GLMs) mainly focus on uncertainty estimation and embedding distance measurement, with the latter proven to be most effective in traditional linguistic tasks like summarization and translation. However, another complex generative scenario mathematical reasoning poses significant challenges to embedding-based methods due to its high-density feature of output spaces, but this feature causes larger discrepancies in the embedding shift trajectory between different samples in latent spaces. Hence, we propose a trajectory-based method TV score, which uses trajectory volatility for OOD detection in mathematical reasoning. Experiments show that our method outperforms all traditional algorithms on GLMs under mathematical reasoning scenarios and can be extended to more applications with high-density features in output spaces, such as multiple-choice questions.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) generate intermediate reasoning traces before producing final answers, yielding strong gains on multi-step and mathematical tasks. Yet aligning LRMs with human preferences, a crucial prerequisite for model deployment, remains underexplored. The statistically correct objective for preference alignment requires marginalizing over reasoning traces, but this computation is intractable in practice. A common workaround optimizes a single sampled trajectory, which introduces substantial gradient variance from stochastic trace sampling. To address this challenge, we frame preference optimization for LRMs through the lens of the bias--variance trade-off and propose Bias--Variance Optimized Preference Optimization (BVPO), a simple, drop-in method that mixes two gradient estimators: a high-variance trace-based estimator and a low-variance empty-trace estimator obtained by disabling reasoning trace generation. Our theory shows that BVPO strictly reduces trace-induced variance for any nontrivial mixture, provides a closed-form choice of the mixing weight that minimizes mean-squared error relative to the true marginal gradient, and under standard smoothness and step-size conditions, tightens classical convergence bounds for stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, BVPO improves alignment over the best baseline by up to 7.8 points on AlpacaEval~2 and 6.8 points on Arena-Hard. Despite being trained only on general conversational data, BVPO also boosts reasoning performance for base models by up to 4.0 points on the average of six math reasoning benchmarks. These results identify variance from trace sampling as a key bottleneck and demonstrate that directly optimizing the bias--variance trade-off yields more stable training and stronger overall performance.

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Reliable traffic data are essential for understanding urban mobility and developing effective traffic management strategies. This study introduces the DRone-derived Intelligence For Traffic analysis (DRIFT) dataset, a large-scale urban traffic dataset collected systematically from synchronized drone videos at approximately 250 meters altitude, covering nine interconnected intersections in Daejeon, South Korea. DRIFT provides high-resolution vehicle trajectories that include directional information, processed through video synchronization and orthomap alignment, resulting in a comprehensive dataset of 81,699 vehicle trajectories. Through our DRIFT dataset, researchers can simultaneously analyze traffic at multiple scales - from individual vehicle maneuvers like lane-changes and safety metrics such as time-to-collision to aggregate network flow dynamics across interconnected urban intersections. The DRIFT dataset is structured to enable immediate use without additional preprocessing, complemented by open-source models for object detection and trajectory extraction, as well as associated analytical tools. DRIFT is expected to significantly contribute to academic research and practical applications, such as traffic flow analysis and simulation studies. The dataset and related resources are publicly accessible at https://github.com/AIxMobility/The-DRIFT.

Flight trajectory data plays a vital role in the traffic management community, especially for downstream tasks such as trajectory prediction, flight recognition, and anomaly detection. Existing works often utilize handcrafted features and design models for different tasks individually, which heavily rely on domain expertise and are hard to extend. We argue that different flight analysis tasks share the same useful features of the trajectory. Jointly learning a unified representation for flight trajectories could be beneficial for improving the performance of various tasks. However, flight trajectory representation learning (TRL) faces two primary challenges, \ie unbalanced behavior density and 3D spatial continuity, which disable recent general TRL methods. In this paper, we propose Flight2Vec , a flight-specific representation learning method to address these challenges. Specifically, a behavior-adaptive patching mechanism is used to inspire the learned representation to pay more attention to behavior-dense segments. Moreover, we introduce a motion trend learning technique that guides the model to memorize not only the precise locations, but also the motion trend to generate better representations. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Flight2Vec significantly improves performance in downstream tasks such as flight trajectory prediction, flight recognition, and anomaly detection.

Evaluation budgets in agentic retrieval-augmented generation span questions, search trajectories, and repeated answers. We measure allocation precision, reading efficiency, and cost boundaries using a retrieval-feedback comparison on HotpotQA and MuSiQue. At 34.14--34.39M model tokens, broader question coverage lowers standard error by 33\% versus five reads and 12.6\% versus three trajectories. Archived nested and Q-only forecasts predict these allocations within 4.0\% and 3.5\%, respectively. Depth subsets establish no clear forecasting advantage beyond the two-trajectory audit. One-read variance penalties relative to the fitted optimum at the same token budget are 0--9.9\%, with substantial Pro uncertainty. Under recorded model fees, more questions beat more trajectories at search prices of \$0--1 per 1,000 requests; question-versus-read fee rankings remain unresolved. Temperature zero cuts answer disagreement from 14.3\% to 3.4\% while comparison precision stays similar. \par\medskip\noindentKeywords: Agentic RAG; Evaluation budget; Generalizability theory; Repeated sampling.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

As hyperparameter tuning becomes increasingly costly at scale, efficient tuning methods are essential. Yet principles for guiding hyperparameter tuning remain limited. In this work, we seek to establish such principles by considering a broad range of hyperparameters, including batch size, learning rate, and weight decay. We identify a phenomenon we call trajectory invariance, where pre-training loss curves, gradient noise, and gradient norm exhibit invariance--closely overlapping--with respect to a quantity that combines learning rate and weight decay. This phenomenon effectively reduces the original two-dimensional hyperparameter space to one dimension, yielding an efficient tuning rule: follow the salient direction revealed by trajectory invariance. Furthermore, we refine previous scaling laws and challenge several existing viewpoints. Overall, our work proposes new principles for efficient tuning and inspires future research on scaling laws.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

Risk-aware planners score paths on uncertain elevation maps using the path cost's mean and standard deviation. Modeling rigid contact, however, requires computing a maximum over several uncertain cells. First-order propagation loses accuracy here by differentiating at only a single cell, while Monte Carlo sampling requires a full path evaluation per draw. We compute the moments of that contact maximum in closed form using Clark's pairwise recursion. By tracking each contact's covariance against the shared map cells, we propagate the smooth remainder using exact Gaussian quadratic-form identities. A contest-depth calibration, fitted once on two design traverses, closes the aggregate standard-deviation shortfall that remains. On 317 held-out rover path segments, scored against a Monte Carlo reference from the same belief, every pre-registered criterion was met. The corrected Clark fold cuts the median error of the mean from linearization's 2.3% to 0.19% and attains the lowest error in the conditional value at risk (CVaR) at the 90% level of every method tested. A benchmark plan costs just 5.5 microseconds on a GPU. These accuracy gains concentrate at contested contacts. While they seldom change which path is chosen on this terrain, the fold still selects the reference-best path in 98% of decisions against linearization's 93 to 96%. On a second dataset the mean transfers, though the risk number does not.

Automated Vehicles (AVs) promise significant advances in transportation. Critical to these improvements is understanding AVs' longitudinal behavior, relying heavily on real-world trajectory data. Existing open-source trajectory datasets of AV, however, often fall short in refinement, reliability, and completeness, hindering effective performance metrics analysis and model development. This study addresses these challenges by creating a Unified Longitudinal TRAjectory dataset for AVs (Ultra-AV) to analyze their microscopic longitudinal driving behaviors. This dataset compiles data from 13 distinct sources, encompassing various AV types, test sites, and experiment scenarios. We established a three-step data processing: 1. extraction of longitudinal trajectory data, 2. general data cleaning, and 3. data-specific cleaning to obtain the longitudinal trajectory data and car-following trajectory data. The validity of the processed data is affirmed through performance evaluations across safety, mobility, stability, and sustainability, along with an analysis of the relationships between variables in car-following models. Our work not only furnishes researchers with standardized data and metrics for longitudinal AV behavior studies but also sets guidelines for data collection and model development.

Autonomous driving requires choosing a safe and efficient plan as surrounding traffic evolves. Generate-and-select planners propose multiple trajectories and score them for execution, and they have outperformed representative direct-prediction baselines on NAVSIM. Their scorer must compare plans that were never executed. Driving logs record the future of only the executed trajectory, so matching the logged future can leave predictions for the alternatives unconstrained; a simulator, in contrast, can label the outcome of every candidate. We introduce World4Scorer, which builds the scorer as a trajectory-conditioned JEPA-style predictor: it predicts a state for each candidate and reads the candidate's scores from that state. Simulator outcome labels supervise the states of all candidates, and the observed future of the executed trajectory anchors the predictor to real scene evolution. Because one predictor produces every candidate's state, the anchor can constrain shared parameters used to score unexecuted plans, while the future itself is needed only during training. Generated candidates mostly score well, so a scene-matched bank adds low-scoring plans to the outcome supervision; framewise choices can conflict, so inertial re-ranking keeps consecutive selections consistent. World4Scorer achieves state-of-the-art NAVSIM-v2 performance and a strong adapted-system result on closed-loop Bench2Drive. With the LeWM world model and planning budget fixed, outcome-based scoring also improves manipulation planning on the OGBench-Cube benchmark.

Vehicle anomaly detection plays a vital role in highway safety applications such as accident prevention, rapid response, traffic flow optimization, and work zone safety. With the surge of the Internet of Things (IoT) in recent years, there has arisen a pressing demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) based anomaly detection methods designed to meet the requirements of IoT devices. Catering to this futuristic vision, we introduce a lightweight approach to vehicle anomaly detection by utilizing the power of trajectory prediction. Our proposed design identifies vehicles deviating from expected paths, indicating highway risks from different camera-viewing angles from real-world highway datasets. On top of that, we present VegaEdge - a sophisticated AI confluence designed for real-time security and surveillance applications in modern highway settings through edge-centric IoT-embedded platforms equipped with our anomaly detection approach. Extensive testing across multiple platforms and traffic scenarios showcases the versatility and effectiveness of VegaEdge. This work also presents the Carolinas Anomaly Dataset (CAD), to bridge the existing gap in datasets tailored for highway anomalies. In real-world scenarios, our anomaly detection approach achieves an AUC-ROC of 0.94, and our proposed VegaEdge design, on an embedded IoT platform, processes 738 trajectories per second in a typical highway setting. The dataset is available at https://github.com/TeCSAR-UNCC/Carolinas_Dataset#chd-anomaly-test-set .

Large language models are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents executing multi-step workflows in real-world software environments. However, existing agent benchmarks suffer from three critical limitations: (1) trajectory-opaque grading that checks only final outputs, (2) underspecified safety and robustness evaluation, and (3) narrow modality coverage and interaction paradigms. We introduce Claw-Eval, an end-to-end evaluation suite addressing all three gaps. It comprises 300 human-verified tasks spanning 9 categories across three groups (general service orchestration, multimodal perception and generation, and multi-turn professional dialogue). Every agent action is recorded through three independent evidence channels (execution traces, audit logs, and environment snapshots), enabling trajectory-aware grading over 2,159 fine-grained rubric items. The scoring protocol evaluates Completion, Safety, and Robustness, reporting Average Score, Pass@k, and Pass^k across three trials to distinguish genuine capability from lucky outcomes. Experiments on 14 frontier models reveal that: (1) trajectory-opaque evaluation is systematically unreliable, missing 44% of safety violations and 13% of robustness failures that our hybrid pipeline catches; (2) controlled error injection primarily degrades consistency rather than peak capability, with Pass^3 dropping up to 24% while Pass@3 remains stable; (3) multimodal performance varies sharply, with most models performing poorer on video than on document or image, and no single model dominating across all modalities. Beyond benchmarking, Claw-Eval highlights actionable directions for agent development, shedding light on what it takes to build agents that are not only capable but reliably deployable.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Although the study of human trajectory anomalies is critical for advancing spatial data mining, empirical research remains severely hindered by a pervasive lack of ground-truth datasets. Despite the availability of several real-world and simulated human trajectory collections, these datasets exclusively capture normal mobility patterns and lack annotated anomalies. This specific scarcity is fundamentally driven by the inherent statistical rarity of anomalous events, precluding the feasibility of conventional observational methods. Compounding this challenge, the systematic acquisition of large-scale mobility data is strictly bottlenecked by prohibitive costs and stringent privacy regulations. To overcome these fundamental limitations and establish a reliable human trajectory anomalies dataset with annotated ground truth, we introduce a novel, end-to-end generative framework designed to synthesize realistic trajectory anomalies at scale. Our architecture bridges the gap between purely synthetic mobility data and complex real-world physical constraints by operating directly on baseline simulated trajectories. We employ Large Language Model (LLM) agents to systematically inject semantically meaningful behavioral anomalies such as irregular out-of-distribution check-ins and skipped routine visits. To ensure rigorous spatial validity, the system leverages map-constrained routing reconstruction to recalculate the physical transitions between these LLM agent-modified staypoints. Moreover, to narrow the simulation-to-reality gap, we augment the resulting trajectories with a context-aware spatial noise model, parameterized by environmental and location-specific variables, to accurately emulate heterogeneous GPS sensor degradation.

Understanding drivers' decision-making is crucial for road safety. Although predicting the ego-vehicle's path is valuable for driver-assistance systems, existing methods mainly focus on external factors like other vehicles' motions, often neglecting the driver's attention and intent. To address this gap, we infer the ego-trajectory by integrating the driver's gaze and the surrounding scene. We introduce RouteFormer, a novel multimodal ego-trajectory prediction network combining GPS data, environmental context, and the driver's field-of-view, comprising first-person video and gaze fixations. We also present the Path Complexity Index (PCI), a new metric for trajectory complexity that enables a more nuanced evaluation of challenging scenarios. To tackle data scarcity and enhance diversity, we introduce GEM, a comprehensive dataset of urban driving scenarios enriched with synchronized driver field-of-view and gaze data. Extensive evaluations on GEM and DR(eye)VE demonstrate that RouteFormer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving notable improvements in prediction accuracy across diverse conditions. Ablation studies reveal that incorporating driver field-of-view data yields significantly better average displacement error, especially in challenging scenarios with high PCI scores, underscoring the importance of modeling driver attention. All data and code are available at https://meakbiyik.github.io/routeformer.

The ability to accurately predict the trajectory of surrounding vehicles is a critical hurdle to overcome on the journey to fully autonomous vehicles. To address this challenge, we pioneer a novel behavior-aware trajectory prediction model (BAT) that incorporates insights and findings from traffic psychology, human behavior, and decision-making. Our model consists of behavior-aware, interaction-aware, priority-aware, and position-aware modules that perceive and understand the underlying interactions and account for uncertainty and variability in prediction, enabling higher-level learning and flexibility without rigid categorization of driving behavior. Importantly, this approach eliminates the need for manual labeling in the training process and addresses the challenges of non-continuous behavior labeling and the selection of appropriate time windows. We evaluate BAT's performance across the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM), Highway Drone (HighD), Roundabout Drone (RounD), and Macao Connected Autonomous Driving (MoCAD) datasets, showcasing its superiority over prevailing state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmarks in terms of prediction accuracy and efficiency. Remarkably, even when trained on reduced portions of the training data (25%), our model outperforms most of the baselines, demonstrating its robustness and efficiency in predicting vehicle trajectories, and the potential to reduce the amount of data required to train autonomous vehicles, especially in corner cases. In conclusion, the behavior-aware model represents a significant advancement in the development of autonomous vehicles capable of predicting trajectories with the same level of proficiency as human drivers. The project page is available at https://github.com/Petrichor625/BATraj-Behavior-aware-Model.

Trajectory-based data attribution methods estimate the influence of training samples on model predictions by unrolling the training trajectory. They are widely used in applications such as data selection, data valuation, and model diagnosis, but there is a lack of comprehensive error analysis of these methods, raising concerns about method faithfulness and hindering reliable deployment. In this work, we provide the first systematic analysis of error sources in trajectory-based data attribution, together with concrete remedies to mitigate them and practical guidelines for downstream use. We organize the total error into three categories, config-level, algorithm-level, and system-level. We make three contributions. First, we identify optimizer mismatch as the dominant config-level error: existing methods derive their attribution under the assumption of SGD, even for models trained with the modern de facto optimizer AdamW. We propose AdamW-influence to fully account for AdamW's optimization dynamics, yielding improvements from 10% to over 300% in Spearman correlation between estimated and ground-truth influence across four settings spanning MLP, CNN, GPT-2, and Llama 3.2-1B. Second, we isolate the remaining algorithm-level error arising from the first-order Taylor approximation, identify the learning rate and trajectory length as factors governing the error magnitude, and derive a closed-form error proxy that can be evaluated along the original trajectory without retraining. Third, we translate these insights into practical guidelines for data selection by unifying offline and online strategies under a K-step look-ahead framework. Under this framework, online selection with a short horizon often matches or exceeds offline, and the optimal horizon can be tuned jointly with the learning rate. Together, these results turn the framework into an actionable selection recipe for practitioners.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.

Score distillation has emerged as one of the most prevalent approaches for text-to-3D asset synthesis. Essentially, score distillation updates 3D parameters by lifting and back-propagating scores averaged over different views. In this paper, we reveal that the gradient estimation in score distillation is inherent to high variance. Through the lens of variance reduction, the effectiveness of SDS and VSD can be interpreted as applications of various control variates to the Monte Carlo estimator of the distilled score. Motivated by this rethinking and based on Stein's identity, we propose a more general solution to reduce variance for score distillation, termed Stein Score Distillation (SSD). SSD incorporates control variates constructed by Stein identity, allowing for arbitrary baseline functions. This enables us to include flexible guidance priors and network architectures to explicitly optimize for variance reduction. In our experiments, the overall pipeline, dubbed SteinDreamer, is implemented by instantiating the control variate with a monocular depth estimator. The results suggest that SSD can effectively reduce the distillation variance and consistently improve visual quality for both object- and scene-level generation. Moreover, we demonstrate that SteinDreamer achieves faster convergence than existing methods due to more stable gradient updates.

Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matching architecture trained exclusively on historical aircraft trajectories, with no route labels or chart supervision. Trained on 1.15 million Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectory windows collected over the San Francisco Bay Area, the model generates aircraft trajectory distributions that closely match historical traffic, reproducing known airspace structure around San Francisco Airport such as the shape of SFO's published NIITE FOUR departure procedure. Our model is trained directly on the native, irregular ADS-B sampling interval. Trajectory prediction is cast as sequence inpainting using a block-causal Transformer that denoises future state tokens conditioned on the observed history using Conditional Flow Matching or Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. We compare our architecture against constant-velocity, deterministic-Long Short Term Memory, and Conditional Variational Autoencoders baselines. At matched parameter count, CFM outperforms DDPM by 11-26% in minADE@20, and both generative objectives surpass the CVAE baseline by 31-41%. We further show that the error degrades gracefully with prediction horizon, and the architecture remains effective when retrained on temporally decimated feeds. Lastly, we sample K independent completions, yielding spatial probabilistic occupancy estimates that can serve as input to downstream conflict-risk estimation.

Recent advances in autonomous driving are moving towards mapless approaches, where High-Definition (HD) maps are generated online directly from sensor data, reducing the need for expensive labeling and maintenance. However, the reliability of these online-generated maps remains uncertain. While incorporating map uncertainty into downstream trajectory prediction tasks has shown potential for performance improvements, current strategies provide limited insights into the specific scenarios where this uncertainty is beneficial. In this work, we first analyze the driving scenarios in which mapping uncertainty has the greatest positive impact on trajectory prediction and identify a critical, previously overlooked factor: the agent's kinematic state. Building on these insights, we propose a novel Proprioceptive Scenario Gating that adaptively integrates map uncertainty into trajectory prediction based on forecasts of the ego vehicle's future kinematics. This lightweight, self-supervised approach enhances the synergy between online mapping and trajectory prediction, providing interpretability around where uncertainty is advantageous and outperforming previous integration methods. Additionally, we introduce a Covariance-based Map Uncertainty approach that better aligns with map geometry, further improving trajectory prediction. Extensive ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of our approach, achieving up to 23.6% improvement in mapless trajectory prediction performance over the state-of-the-art method using the real-world nuScenes driving dataset. Our code, data, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Ethan-Zheng136/Map-Uncertainty-for-Trajectory-Prediction.

Long-horizon agentic tasks require an agent to modify an environment through a sequence of tool calls, with success determined by the final state. The standard recipe assigns a single outcome reward at the end and compares trajectories sampled for the same task. As a result, a group with no successful trajectory yields no training signal, failed attempts cannot be told apart by how close they came to completion, and turns that advance the task receive the same credit as turns that only query the environment. Prior work refines the unit of comparison from the trajectory to the step, or trains a reward model to supply intermediate signal: the former still derives its signal from final success alone, and the latter estimates it with a model. We observe that the acceptance checks that decide success can also be run on intermediate states, so progress is as verifiable as the outcome. We propose ProCredit, which turns this verified progress into credit: it reruns the acceptance checks after each turn, rewards the turn by its change in progress, and uses these rewards to assign credit both across attempts at the same task and across the turns within a trajectory. Starting from Qwen3.5 base models at three scales on AppWorld, ProCredit outperforms outcome-reward baselines and progress-based baselines in task completion rate at every scale on both test sets, exceeding the strongest outcome-reward baseline by 4.1 percentage points at 4B, and results in a second environment show the same direction of improvement. Ablations show that adding the final progress to the trajectory score alone does not improve performance: the gain comes from crediting progress to the turn where it occurs.

We reimplement the dynamics model of the Robotic World Model (RWM) and test the uncertainty estimate that its follow-up, RWM-U, uses to penalize reward in offline policy optimization. Our implementation matches the released model's gradients. On held-out data, training on the model's own rollouts beats one-step training at the preregistered long horizon for all ten episodes, but loses on short one-step windows. RWM-U's ensemble disagreement ranks rollout errors better than forecast step (Spearman rho = 0.90 at 100 steps), yet its spread substantially understates error: one-sigma coverage on the released checkpoint is 4.6% at 100 steps, versus 68% for a calibrated Gaussian. Rolling ensemble members on their own predictions raises coverage to 33%. The implemented squared-error loss on sampled predictions drives each member's variance toward zero. A horizon-specific rescaling restores one-sigma coverage under leave-one-episode-out evaluation, but not two-sigma coverage. We also identify two defects in the released evaluation pipeline. The study covers one robot, one gait and one dataset; it trains no policy.

Autonomous systems often must predict the motions of nearby agents from partial and noisy data. This paper asks and answers the question: "can we learn, in real-time, a nonlinear predictive model of another agent's motions?" Our online framework denoises and forecasts such dynamics using a modified sliding-window Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition (Hankel-DMD). Partial noisy measurements are embedded into a Hankel matrix, while an associated Page matrix enables singular-value hard thresholding (SVHT) to estimate the effective rank. A Cadzow projection enforces structured low-rank consistency, yielding a denoised trajectory and local noise variance estimates. From this representation, a time-varying Hankel-DMD lifted linear predictor is constructed for multi-step forecasts. The residual analysis provides variance-tracking signals that can support downstream estimators and risk-aware planning. We validate the approach in simulation under Gaussian and heavy-tailed noise, and experimentally on a dynamic crane testbed. Results show that the method achieves stable variance-aware denoising and short-horizon prediction suitable for integration into real-time control frameworks.

Driving world action models (WAMs) learn from paired trajectories and future observations. Post-training with reinforcement learning allows the policy to explore alternative trajectories and improve planning using driving rewards. However, driving logs contain future videos only for the recorded trajectories, leaving these alternatives without corresponding visual supervision. Thus, we introduce SimVTA, a simulation-grounded post-training framework that combines trajectory optimization with video supervision. First, we sample candidate trajectories for each observation and use a real-world simulator (e.g., World Engine) to render future videos for high-reward candidates in real-world scenes reconstructed with 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). This provides trajectory-matched supervision independent of the model's own predictions. Under a limited rendering budget, we prioritize video supervision for higher-error futures among these rendered candidates. Finally, we optimize trajectory planning with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) and use a flow-matching loss on the matched videos to update shared representations. At inference time, the model predicts trajectories directly, without simulator calls. On NAVSIM v1, applying SimVTA to a WAM initialization improves PDMS from 86.2 to 91.3 (+5.1). It achieves 88.2 EPDMS on NAVSIM v2 and an average HD-Score of 38.8 in closed-loop evaluation on HUGSIM. Ablations show that updating shared representations with video supervision improves planning, while prioritizing higher-error futures among high-reward trajectories further improves performance.

End-to-end multi-modal planning has been widely adopted to model the uncertainty of driving behavior, typically by scoring candidate trajectories and selecting the optimal one. Existing approaches generally fall into two categories: scoring a large static trajectory vocabulary, or scoring a small set of dynamically generated proposals. While static vocabularies often suffer from coarse discretization of the action space, dynamic proposals provide finer-grained precision and have shown stronger empirical performance on existing benchmarks. However, it remains unclear whether dynamic generation is fundamentally necessary, or whether static vocabularies can already achieve comparable performance when they are sufficiently dense to cover the action space. In this work, we start with a systematic scaling study of Hydra-MDP, a representative scoring-based method, revealing that performance consistently improves as trajectory anchors become denser, without exhibiting saturation before computational constraints are reached. Motivated by this observation, we propose SparseDriveV2 to push the performance boundary of scoring-based planning through two complementary innovations: (1) a scalable vocabulary representation with a factorized structure that decomposes trajectories into geometric paths and velocity profiles, enabling combinatorial coverage of the action space, and (2) a scalable scoring strategy with coarse factorized scoring over paths and velocity profiles followed by fine-grained scoring on a small set of composed trajectories. By combining these two techniques, SparseDriveV2 achieves 92.0 PDMS and 90.1 EPDMS on NAVSIM, with 89.15 Driving Score and 70.00 Success Rate on Bench2Drive with a lightweight ResNet-34 as backbone. Code and model are released at https://github.com/swc-17/SparseDriveV2.

There are five types of trajectory prediction tasks: deterministic, stochastic, domain adaptation, momentary observation, and few-shot. These associated tasks are defined by various factors, such as the length of input paths, data split and pre-processing methods. Interestingly, even though they commonly take sequential coordinates of observations as input and infer future paths in the same coordinates as output, designing specialized architectures for each task is still necessary. For the other task, generality issues can lead to sub-optimal performances. In this paper, we propose SingularTrajectory, a diffusion-based universal trajectory prediction framework to reduce the performance gap across the five tasks. The core of SingularTrajectory is to unify a variety of human dynamics representations on the associated tasks. To do this, we first build a Singular space to project all types of motion patterns from each task into one embedding space. We next propose an adaptive anchor working in the Singular space. Unlike traditional fixed anchor methods that sometimes yield unacceptable paths, our adaptive anchor enables correct anchors, which are put into a wrong location, based on a traversability map. Finally, we adopt a diffusion-based predictor to further enhance the prototype paths using a cascaded denoising process. Our unified framework ensures the generality across various benchmark settings such as input modality, and trajectory lengths. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that SingularTrajectory substantially outperforms existing models, highlighting its effectiveness in estimating general dynamics of human movements. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/SingularTrajectory .

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Benchmark contamination is diagnosed with n-gram overlap, likelihood-based membership inference, or canary strings, and each needs something usually unavailable: the training corpus, a well-chosen test statistic, or foresight at release. A recent alternative reads it off a linear probe on internal activations. We show the natural way to do this does not work, specify one that survives measurement, then find that the correction making it work carries more variance than the null it is tested against. The protocol reports a zero-sum contrast on the depth profile of probe accuracy, recentred on a level-matched placebo baseline, tested against a label-permutation null, with the reference set twice the size of the suspect set. Each choice replaces a simpler alternative we rejected on measurement. Reporting the level of excess separability rather than its shape makes the false positive rate track the size of the analyst's own control set, 0.03 to 0.99 under a true null. Contrasting against a flat depth profile rejects a true null 0.72 of the time when surface decodability rises with depth, and loses all power when it falls. On real transformers the protocol fails a test the simulations did not pose. The recentring subtracts an estimate, and the permutation null holds it fixed. Re-estimated across split seeds on four audits of contaminated checkpoints, its standard deviation is 1.30 to 1.56 times the null's own in every arm: what is subtracted to remove a bias is more variable than what it corrects. The one nominally significant result, p = 0.0075, becomes 0.0745 once that variance is propagated, and no verdict is issued. The simulations missed this because their surface key is the covariate driving item variation; on real text it is a proxy, and degrading key quality in simulation reproduces it. We add a companion measurement and a widened null. No arm shows contamination.

A significant number of traffic crashes are secondary crashes that occur because of an earlier incident on the road. Thus, early detection of traffic incidents is crucial for road users from safety perspectives with a potential to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. The wide availability of GPS devices now-a-days gives an opportunity of tracking and recording vehicle trajectories. The objective of this study is to use vehicle trajectory data for advance real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways using machine learning-based algorithms. The study uses three days of unevenly sequenced vehicle trajectory data and traffic incident data on I-10, one of the most crash-prone highways in Louisiana. Vehicle trajectories are converted to trajectories based on virtual detector locations to maintain spatial uniformity as well as to generate historical traffic data for machine learning algorithms. Trips matched with traffic incidents on the way are separated and along with other trips with similar spatial attributes are used to build a database for modeling. Multiple machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Artificial Neural Network models are used to detect a trajectory that is likely to face an incident in the downstream road section. Results suggest that the Random Forest model achieves the best performance for predicting an incident with reasonable recall value and discrimination capability.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

While flow matching is elegant, its reliance on single-sample conditional velocities leads to high-variance training targets that destabilize optimization and slow convergence. By explicitly characterizing this variance, we identify 1) a high-variance regime near the prior, where optimization is challenging, and 2) a low-variance regime near the data distribution, where conditional and marginal velocities nearly coincide. Leveraging this insight, we propose Stable Velocity, a unified framework that improves both training and sampling. For training, we introduce Stable Velocity Matching (StableVM), an unbiased variance-reduction objective, along with Variance-Aware Representation Alignment (VA-REPA), which adaptively strengthen auxiliary supervision in the low-variance regime. For inference, we show that dynamics in the low-variance regime admit closed-form simplifications, enabling Stable Velocity Sampling (StableVS), a finetuning-free acceleration. Extensive experiments on ImageNet 256times256 and large pretrained text-to-image and text-to-video models, including SD3.5, Flux, Qwen-Image, and Wan2.2, demonstrate consistent improvements in training efficiency and more than 2times faster sampling within the low-variance regime without degrading sample quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/linYDTHU/StableVelocity.

End-to-end multi-modal planning is a promising paradigm in autonomous driving, enabling decision-making with diverse trajectory candidates. A key component is a robust trajectory scorer capable of selecting the optimal trajectory from these candidates. While recent trajectory scorers focus on scoring either large sets of static trajectories or small sets of dynamically generated ones, both approaches face significant limitations in generalization. Static vocabularies provide effective coarse discretization but struggle to make fine-grained adaptation, while dynamic proposals offer detailed precision but fail to capture broader trajectory distributions. To overcome these challenges, we propose GTRS (Generalized Trajectory Scoring), a unified framework for end-to-end multi-modal planning that combines coarse and fine-grained trajectory evaluation. GTRS consists of three complementary innovations: (1) a diffusion-based trajectory generator that produces diverse fine-grained proposals; (2) a vocabulary generalization technique that trains a scorer on super-dense trajectory sets with dropout regularization, enabling its robust inference on smaller subsets; and (3) a sensor augmentation strategy that enhances out-of-domain generalization while incorporating refinement training for critical trajectory discrimination. As the winning solution of the Navsim v2 Challenge, GTRS demonstrates superior performance even with sub-optimal sensor inputs, approaching privileged methods that rely on ground-truth perception. Code will be available at https://github.com/NVlabs/GTRS.

Zero-shot waypoint navigation requires vision-language models to select, from the current first-person observation, a sequence of spatial actions that is feasible for the agent and reaches the goal, placing joint demands on the integrated spatial intelligence of today's foundation VLMs. Existing spatial-intelligence benchmarks primarily evaluate isolated judgments of relations, directions, or targets and therefore do not directly measure the integrated navigation ability required to combine target recognition, action-consequence assessment, distance estimation, and path planning. To fill this evaluation gap, we introduce EgoPathBench, a dataset and five-task benchmark for first-person waypoint decision-making. Each question presents an egocentric RGB image, a natural-language goal, and numbered visible waypoints; a model returns traversable candidates or an ordered route. Predictions are evaluated for candidate feasibility, adjacent-edge legality, and goal arrival under point-agent or embodied geometry. EgoPathBench contains 31,852 training, 1,345 validation, and 1,111 benchmark questions and retains at least one geometrically verified reference route for every route question. Across nine VLMs, the highest EgoPath Score is only 28.3. The top-ranked model reaches 35.9% success on Point Path, but only 2.9% and 4.0% on Embodied Path and Intent Path, respectively, showing that current models remain limited in forming complete, goal-consistent routes under embodiment constraints. Beyond the evaluation data, we release the corresponding training resource. Fine-tuning Qwen 3.5 4B on the released training split raises its EgoPath Score from 3.9 to 38.9 and improves all four reported evaluations across three external spatial benchmarks, with gains of 1.4--9.6 points.

Testing and evaluation is a critical step in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Due to the black-box property and various types of CAVs, how to test and evaluate CAVs adaptively remains a major challenge. Many approaches have been proposed to adaptively generate testing scenarios during the testing process. However, most existing approaches cannot be applied to complex scenarios, where the variables needed to define such scenarios are high dimensional. Towards filling this gap, the adaptive testing with sparse control variates method is proposed in this paper. Instead of adaptively generating testing scenarios, our approach evaluates CAVs' performances by adaptively utilizing the testing results. Specifically, each testing result is adjusted using multiple linear regression techniques based on control variates. As the regression coefficients can be adaptively optimized for the CAV under test, using the adjusted results can reduce the estimation variance, compared with using the testing results directly. To overcome the high dimensionality challenge, sparse control variates are utilized only for the critical variables of testing scenarios. To validate the proposed method, the high-dimensional overtaking scenarios are investigated, and the results demonstrate that our approach can further accelerate the evaluation process by about 30 times.

Next point-of-interest (POI) recommendation predicts a user's next destination from historical movements. Traditional models require intensive training, while LLMs offer flexible and generalizable zero-shot solutions but often generate generic or geographically irrelevant results due to missing trajectory and spatial context. To address these issues, we propose RALLM-POI, a framework that couples LLMs with retrieval-augmented generation and self-rectification. We first propose a Historical Trajectory Retriever (HTR) that retrieves relevant past trajectories to serve as contextual references, which are then reranked by a Geographical Distance Reranker (GDR) for prioritizing spatially relevant trajectories. Lastly, an Agentic LLM Rectifier (ALR) is designed to refine outputs through self-reflection. Without additional training, RALLM-POI achieves substantial accuracy gains across three real-world Foursquare datasets, outperforming both conventional and LLM-based baselines. Code is released at https://github.com/LKRcrocodile/RALLM-POI.

This paper tackles the challenge of real-time 3D trajectory prediction for UAVs, which is critical for applications such as aerial surveillance and defense. Existing prediction models that rely primarily on position data struggle with accuracy, especially when UAV movements fall outside the position domain used in training. Our research identifies a gap in utilizing velocity estimates, first-order dynamics, to better capture the dynamics and enhance prediction accuracy and generalizability in any position domain. To bridge this gap, we propose a new trajectory prediction method using Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) within sequence-based neural networks. Unlike traditional methods that rely on RNNs or transformers, this approach forecasts future velocities and positions based on historical velocity data instead of positions. This is designed to enhance prediction accuracy and scalability, overcoming challenges faced by conventional models in handling complex UAV dynamics. The methodology employs both synthetic and real-world 3D UAV trajectory data, capturing a wide range of flight patterns, speeds, and agility. Synthetic data is generated using the Gazebo simulator and PX4 Autopilot, while real-world data comes from the UZH-FPV and Mid-Air drone racing datasets. The GRU-based models significantly outperform state-of-the-art RNN approaches, with a mean square error (MSE) as low as 2 x 10^-8. Overall, our findings confirm the effectiveness of incorporating velocity data in improving the accuracy of UAV trajectory predictions across both synthetic and real-world scenarios, in and out of position data distributions. Finally, we open-source our 5000 trajectories dataset and a ROS 2 package to facilitate the integration with existing ROS-based UAV systems.

Computer-using agents (CUAs) enable task completion through natural interaction with operating systems and software interfaces. While script-based verifiers are widely adopted for evaluation, they suffer from limited scalability and inability to provide step-wise assessment. Reward models offer promising alternatives, but their effectiveness on CUA evaluation remains largely underexplored. To address this gap, we present CUARewardBench, comprising four key contributions: (1) First-ever Comprehensive CUA Reward Benchmark: We introduce the first benchmark for evaluating both outcome reward models (ORM) and process reward models (PRM) on CUA tasks, enabling systematic assessment across trajectory-level and step-level evaluation. (2) Diverse, Practical and Reliable Dataset: CUARewardBench encompasses trajectories from 10 software categories and 7 agent architectures with varying performance levels (25.9%-50.8% success rates). All trajectories are expertly annotated through carefully designed protocols, with rigorous quality control to ensure reliability and practical applicability. (3) Comprehensive Analysis and Insights: Through extensive experiments across 7 vision-language models and 3 prompt templates, we reveal critical limitations of current CUA RMs, including insufficient visual reasoning capabilities, knowledge deficiencies, and the superiority of general VLMs over specialized CUA models for reward evaluation. (4) Unanimous Prompt Ensemble (UPE): Based on the insights from our comprehensive analysis, we propose UPE, a novel ensemble method that significantly enhances reward model reliability through strict unanimous voting and strategic prompt-template configurations. UPE achieves 89.8% precision and 93.3% NPV for ORM, and 81.7% precision and 85.1% NPV for PRM, substantially outperforming single VLMs and traditional ensemble approaches.

Aerial image-goal navigation requires an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to reach a target location specified by a goal image. Existing world-model-based methods rank candidate trajectories using predicted futures, but typically rely on only one or a few point predictions, which is inadequate for large-scale outdoor environments with substantial future-state uncertainty. To address this limitation, we propose the Uncertainty-Aware Navigation World Model (UA-NWM), an efficient latent world model for aerial image-goal navigation, which formulates trajectory scoring as conditional out-of-distribution detection. UA-NWM represents plausible futures with an uncertainty subspace and decomposes the prediction--goal discrepancy into uncertainty-explainable and unexplainable components. Only the unexplainable residual is used for scoring, enabling robust selection without multiple future samples. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UA-NWM consistently outperforms existing navigation world models while maintaining low inference latency. Real-world UAV experiments further validate its practical applicability. Project page: https://duryi.github.io/UA-NWM-Project-Page

Diffusion models have emerged as the backbone of modern generative AI, powering advances in vision, language, audio and other modalities. Despite their success, they suffer from hallucinations, implausible samples that lie outside the support of true data distribution, which degrade reliability and trust. In this work, we first empirically confirm previously proposed hypothesis that score smoothness causes hallucinations in Image Generation diffusion models and provide a density-based perspective. We further formalize this notion by linking the hallucinations probability mass to lipschitz constant of the learned score function. Motivated by this, we introduce a Variance-Guided Score Modulation (VSM) strategy that controls the score Jacobian, in turn reducing score smoothness and better approximating the ground truth score that decreases hallucinations. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach reduces hallucinations (up to ~25%) while maintaining high fidelity and diversity, providing a principled step toward more reliable diffusion-based image generation. We also propose two benchmark datasets with extreme semantic variation for systematic hallucination evaluation. Code and Datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/bhosalems/VSM.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly operate through long-horizon trajectories involving user instructions, tool use, external observations, and memory. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate behavioral outcomes but provide limited support for fine-grained attribution analysis. We introduce trajectory attribution and develop a benchmark and annotation framework for this task. The benchmark organizes heterogeneous trajectories under a unified component schema and provides annotations of the primary attribution component, together with attack and execution chains where applicable. Instantiating the benchmark with trajectories from AgentDojo and the Stage and Canary settings of Agent3Sigma yields more than 1,300 annotated trajectories covering task-aligned actions, unsafe actions, and safety refusals. The benchmark defines two evaluation tasks, primary attribution localization and attribution-chain recovery, and provides reference baselines based on incremental trajectory contribution and component-level leave-one-out perturbation. It captures diverse attribution settings, including local and long-range attribution as well as structured attribution chains. Reference baseline results exhibit substantial performance differences across these settings, providing an initial characterization of the benchmark's attribution challenges. Beyond this initial instantiation, we release a reusable annotation skill that enables trajectories generated by new agent models to be standardized, annotated, and evaluated under the same framework. Project resources and future releases are available at https://github.com/chenjing-2024/agent-trajectory-attribution.

Although recent tool-augmented benchmarks involve complex requests, evaluation remains limited to answer matching, neglecting critical trajectory aspects like efficiency, hallucination, and adaptivity. The most straightforward method for evaluation is to compare an agent's trajectory with the ground-truth, but annotating all valid ground-truth trajectories is prohibitively expensive. In this manner, we introduce TRACE, a reference-free framework for the multi-dimensional evaluation of tool-augmented LLMs. By incorporating an evidence bank which accumulates knowledge from preceding steps, TRACE assesses an agent's reasoning trajectory effectively. To validate our framework, we develop a new meta-evaluation dataset with diverse and flawed trajectories, each labeled with multi-faceted performance scores. Our results confirm that TRACE accurately evaluates complex trajectories even with small open-source LLMs. Furthermore, we apply our method to evaluate the trajectories that agents produce while solving tool-augmented tasks, presenting previously unreported observations and their corresponding insights.

Off-policy learning from multistep returns is crucial for sample-efficient reinforcement learning, but counteracting off-policy bias without exacerbating variance is challenging. Classically, off-policy bias is corrected in a per-decision manner: past temporal-difference errors are re-weighted by the instantaneous Importance Sampling (IS) ratio after each action via eligibility traces. Many off-policy algorithms rely on this mechanism, along with differing protocols for cutting the IS ratios to combat the variance of the IS estimator. Unfortunately, once a trace has been fully cut, the effect cannot be reversed. This has led to the development of credit-assignment strategies that account for multiple past experiences at a time. These trajectory-aware methods have not been extensively analyzed, and their theoretical justification remains uncertain. In this paper, we propose a multistep operator that can express both per-decision and trajectory-aware methods. We prove convergence conditions for our operator in the tabular setting, establishing the first guarantees for several existing methods as well as many new ones. Finally, we introduce Recency-Bounded Importance Sampling (RBIS), which leverages trajectory awareness to perform robustly across lambda-values in an off-policy control task.

When a long-horizon agent execution fails, outcome-level evaluation reveals the unsuccessful result but not where the decisive error entered the trajectory. Developers must then inspect the full execution to identify the responsible role and localize the earliest decisive root-cause step. Existing failure-attribution benchmarks largely focus on shorter traces, leaving diagnosis across hundreds of recorded steps underexplored. We introduce LongRCA Bench, comprising 1,140 failed trajectories across five domains without injected errors. It provides independently scored human labels for the responsible role and earliest decisive root-cause step. The median trajectory contains 145 steps, and the strongest baseline reaches only 13.2% exact root-step accuracy. We further present Root-Cause Trajectory Attribution (RCTA), a training-free method that retrieves candidate error steps from segment summaries and traces them to available earlier handoff instructions. Using the same backbone, benchmark instances, and scoring protocol, RCTA reaches 51.1% responsible-role accuracy and 24.1% exact root-step accuracy. These results highlight the need to evaluate responsible-role attribution and exact root-step localization as separate targets in long-trajectory failure diagnosis.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

This paper tackles the problem of positioning a swarm of UAVs inside a completely unknown terrain, having as objective to maximize the overall situational awareness. The situational awareness is expressed by the number and quality of unique objects of interest, inside the UAVs' fields of view. YOLOv3 and a system to identify duplicate objects of interest were employed to assign a single score to each UAVs' configuration. Then, a novel navigation algorithm, capable of optimizing the previously defined score, without taking into consideration the dynamics of either UAVs or environment, is proposed. A cornerstone of the proposed approach is that it shares the same convergence characteristics as the block coordinate descent (BCD) family of approaches. The effectiveness and performance of the proposed navigation scheme were evaluated utilizing a series of experiments inside the AirSim simulator. The experimental evaluation indicates that the proposed navigation algorithm was able to consistently navigate the swarm of UAVs to "strategic" monitoring positions and also adapt to the different number of swarm sizes. Source code is available at https://github.com/dimikout3/ConvCAOAirSim.

User profiling and region analysis are two tasks of significant commercial value. However, in practical applications, modeling different features typically involves four main steps: data preparation, data processing, model establishment, evaluation, and optimization. This process is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Repeating this workflow for each feature results in abundant development time for tasks and a reduced overall volume of task development. Indeed, human mobility data contains a wealth of information. Several successful cases suggest that conducting in-depth analysis of population movement data could potentially yield meaningful profiles about users and areas. Nonetheless, most related works have not thoroughly utilized the semantic information within human mobility data and trained on a fixed number of the regions. To tap into the rich information within population movement, based on the perspective that Regions Are Who walk them, we propose a large spatiotemporal model based on trajectories (RAW). It possesses the following characteristics: 1) Tailored for trajectory data, introducing a GPT-like structure with a parameter count of up to 1B; 2) Introducing a spatiotemporal fine-tuning module, interpreting trajectories as collection of users to derive arbitrary region embedding. This framework allows rapid task development based on the large spatiotemporal model. We conducted extensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of our proposed large spatiotemporal model. It's evident that our proposed method, relying solely on human mobility data without additional features, exhibits a certain level of relevance in user profiling and region analysis. Moreover, our model showcases promising predictive capabilities in trajectory generation tasks based on the current state, offering the potential for further innovative work utilizing this large spatiotemporal model.

Generating corner-case scenarios with appropriate adversity in a simulation environment is critical for testing an autonomous vehicle (AV) software stack's safety performance before deployment. Existing autonomous-driving scenario generators can enforce specific behavior, adversity, or feasibility conditions, but they provide limited control over how extreme a generated scenario is relative to plausible futures in the same traffic context. This study represents the adversity of a generated scenario as its percentile in the conditional distribution of future risk given the observed history. This view supports calibrated answers to two questions: how "corner" a generated corner-case scenario is and how its "cornerness" can be fine-tuned. To this end, we formulate history-conditioned risk-percentile requests and learn a reference risk distribution that maps each requested percentile to a physical risk target. We then use a percentile-conditioned joint diffusion model with sampling-time risk guidance to generate multi-agent futures, together with a reference-based criterion for evaluating percentile realization. Experiments use the minimum post-encroachment time (PET) between the ego and its surrounding vehicles as the risk surrogate on highD. On the primary evaluation set, our method realizes 1,422 of 1,440 requests within a 0.05 percentile tolerance (98.75%), with mean percentile error 0.00673 and PET-target error 0.00991 seconds. The resulting interface connects context-relative risk specification, physical realization, and evaluation through a common risk scale. Project website and videos of generated scenarios are available at https://hhj233.github.io/CornerPercentile/.

Decision models such as Jev answer questions with probabilities, which are only useful if they are calibrated. Open-source reproductions rely on supervised fine-tuning plus temperature scaling, while reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) makes reasoning models overconfident. We present a working implementation of reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions (RLCD) for reasoning models: the model samples a rationale, and we score the answer distribution it commits to afterwards with a strictly proper scoring rule. A variance identity shows that scoring the mixture of several samples rewards disagreeing rationales, and that RLVR is exactly this mixture objective without its diversity term. Optimized naively, the per-rationale objective either switches reasoning off or is drowned out by policy-gradient noise, which leads to a two-stage recipe: calibrate, then reinforce. With Qwen3-1.7B on two reasoning tasks (3 seeds, paired tests), RLCD matches or beats SFT, RFT/STaR and GRPO (each temperature-scaled) in accuracy and beats all of them in selective prediction; on GSM8K answer verification a single query decides \gvTwoCovFive\% of the items at le5\% error, versus \gvGrpoCovFive\% for GRPO. When uncertainty comes from annotator disagreement, RLCD provably cannot beat cross-entropy. Code and results: https://github.com/ZimmyGao/openjev-rlcd.

Drones equipped with cameras are emerging as a powerful tool for large-scale aerial 3D scanning, but existing automatic flight planners do not exploit all available information about the scene, and can therefore produce inaccurate and incomplete 3D models. We present an automatic method to generate drone trajectories, such that the imagery acquired during the flight will later produce a high-fidelity 3D model. Our method uses a coarse estimate of the scene geometry to plan camera trajectories that: (1) cover the scene as thoroughly as possible; (2) encourage observations of scene geometry from a diverse set of viewing angles; (3) avoid obstacles; and (4) respect a user-specified flight time budget. Our method relies on a mathematical model of scene coverage that exhibits an intuitive diminishing returns property known as submodularity. We leverage this property extensively to design a trajectory planning algorithm that reasons globally about the non-additive coverage reward obtained across a trajectory, jointly with the cost of traveling between views. We evaluate our method by using it to scan three large outdoor scenes, and we perform a quantitative evaluation using a photorealistic video game simulator.

Safety and robustness are crucial factors in developing trustworthy autonomous vehicles. One essential aspect of addressing these factors is to equip vehicles with the capability to predict future trajectories for all moving objects in the surroundings and quantify prediction uncertainties. In this paper, we propose the Sequential Neural Variational Agent (SeNeVA), a generative model that describes the distribution of future trajectories for a single moving object. Our approach can distinguish Out-of-Distribution data while quantifying uncertainty and achieving competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods on the Argoverse 2 and INTERACTION datasets. Specifically, a 0.446 meters minimum Final Displacement Error, a 0.203 meters minimum Average Displacement Error, and a 5.35% Miss Rate are achieved on the INTERACTION test set. Extensive qualitative and quantitative analysis is also provided to evaluate the proposed model. Our open-source code is available at https://github.com/PurdueDigitalTwin/seneva.

Failure attribution for LLM-based agentic systems, i.e., identifying which steps in a failure trajectory caused the task to fail, is critical for debugging and improving these systems. Existing approaches either rely on prompting-based pipelines, which are computationally expensive, or require post-training on failure trajectories with step-level error annotations, which are costly to collect and difficult to scale. We argue that a practical failure attribution model should be lightweight and trainable without step-level supervision on failure data. To this end, we address unsupervised failure attribution, i.e., training exclusively on successful trajectories and identifying error steps at inference time given a failure trajectory. We propose OAT, which casts this problem as one-class learning with neural controlled differential equations, modeling the dynamical pattern of successful trajectories in latent space. At inference time, each step in a failure trajectory is assigned an anomaly score based on its deviation from the dynamics learned on successful trajectories, which is then used to form a set of error steps. With training on only 100 successful trajectories, experiments show that OAT is 200--5000 times faster than prompting-based baselines, and, at the same time, consistently outperforms them in both in-domain and out-of-distribution datasets with +20% and +7% F1 scores, respectively, demonstrating that OAT is a promising and efficient direction for diagnosing agentic system failures.

As unmanned aerial systems (UASs) increasingly integrate into the US national airspace system, there is an increasing need to characterize how commercial and recreational UASs may encounter each other. To inform the development and evaluation of safety critical technologies, we demonstrate a methodology to analytically calculate all potential relative geometries between different UAS operations performing inspection missions. This method is based on a previously demonstrated technique that leverages open source geospatial information to generate representative unmanned aircraft trajectories. Using open source data and parallel processing techniques, we performed trillions of calculations to estimate the relative horizontal distance between geospatial points across sixteen locations.

Computer-use agents are capable of completing complex tasks, increasing the use of automatic judges to determine success, either for training or for evaluation without human involvement. Despite their flexibility, their reliability on long tasks spanning multiple applications remains unclear. A trajectory, composed of long sequences of screenshots and actions, may appear complete, but in reality violates constraints from the instruction or introduces an unwanted side effect. To identify these errors, a judge needs to examine the trajectory with respect to the user's instruction. To this end, we introduce AgentHorizon, a benchmark of 1,373 computer-use tasks (instruction-trajectory pairs) drawn from 166 hours of human-recorded trajectories spanning three operating systems. By recording trajectories for closely related instructions, we can construct negative tasks by swapping the instructions. This paired design evaluates judges on their ability to distinguish a successful trajectory from one that completed a similar (but incompatible) request. We release the benchmark under three splits: a frontier split, AgentHorizon (AH), a simplified split, AgentHorizon-Simple (AH-S), and a development split, AgentHorizon-Development (AH-D). We further evaluate eleven judges by (1) directly passing the full trajectory (with up to 300 screenshots and actions), and (2) using them as coding agents across five agent harnesses. We find that our best agentic judge, GPT-5.5, achieves 80.9% balanced accuracy on the AH subset. We find that tool-use improves certain models but results in worse performance for open-weight models, and that judges differ drastically in their ability to accept a valid trajectory and reject failed ones. Our findings highlight the need for judges that are capable of locating and verifying often hidden evidence that a task was properly completed inside long interaction histories.

Trajectory Inference (TI) seeks to recover latent dynamical processes from snapshot data, where only independent samples from time-indexed marginals are observed. In applications such as single-cell genomics, destructive measurements make path-space laws non-identifiable from finitely many marginals, leaving held-out marginal prediction as the dominant but limited evaluation protocol. We introduce a general framework for estimating the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL) divergence between probability measures on function space, yielding a tractable, data-driven estimator that is scalable to realistic snapshot datasets. We validate the accuracy of our estimator on a benchmark suite, where the estimated functional KL closely matches the analytic KL. Applying this framework to synthetic and real scRNA-seq datasets, we show that current evaluation metrics often give inconsistent assessments, whereas path-space KL enables a coherent comparison of trajectory inference methods and exposes discrepancies in inferred dynamics, especially in regions with sparse or missing data. These results support functional KL as a principled criterion for evaluating trajectory inference under partial observability.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

Recent vision-and-language navigation (VLN) policies act on their visual history, and an incorrect action can take them off the instructed route. Paired interventions on four VLN policies show that clearing the history doubles pooled success at the onset of a deviation but lowers it on route, while later in a deviation, removing only the off-route frames helps much less. After a deviation, the retained history keeps the policy from turning where a turn is needed, which we call behavioral inertia. We propose MOON, a framework that equips a frozen VLN policy with two lightweight modules, adding less than 1% of its parameters. A deviation judge decides when to forget, raising an alarm that clears the history when it predicts that the agent is off route. A recovery policy, trained with GRPO from alarm states, learns how to move on, turning more of the successes found only by sampling into a single greedy rollout. Experiments on R2R-CE and RxR-CE show that MOON reaches the highest R2R-CE success rate among the compared methods and raises the success rate of its frozen base by 5.2 and 6.0 points, and an ablation with a random trigger indicates that this gain depends on when the history is cleared. Without retraining, MOON also improves zero-shot object-goal navigation on HM3D-OVON. Together, these results suggest that deviation recovery depends on knowing when to forget, not only how to act. Code is available at https://github.com/AutoLab-SAI-SJTU/MOON.

Traffic forecasting is a fundamental task in transportation research, however the scope of current research has mainly focused on a single data modality of loop detectors. Recently, the advances in Artificial Intelligence and drone technologies have made possible novel solutions for efficient, accurate and flexible aerial observations of urban traffic. As a promising traffic monitoring approach, drone-captured data can create an accurate multi-sensor mobility observatory for large-scale urban networks, when combined with existing infrastructure. Therefore, this paper investigates the problem of multi-source traffic speed prediction, simultaneously using drone and loop detector data. A simple yet effective graph-based model HiMSNet is proposed to integrate multiple data modalities and learn spatio-temporal correlations. Detailed analysis shows that predicting accurate segment-level speed is more challenging than the regional speed, especially under high-demand scenarios with heavier congestions and varying traffic dynamics. Utilizing both drone and loop detector data, the prediction accuracy can be improved compared to single-modality cases, when the sensors have lower coverages and are subject to noise. Our simulation study based on vehicle trajectories in a real urban road network has highlighted the added value of integrating drones in traffic forecasting and monitoring.

The recent advancements in text-to-3D generation mark a significant milestone in generative models, unlocking new possibilities for creating imaginative 3D assets across various real-world scenarios. While recent advancements in text-to-3D generation have shown promise, they often fall short in rendering detailed and high-quality 3D models. This problem is especially prevalent as many methods base themselves on Score Distillation Sampling (SDS). This paper identifies a notable deficiency in SDS, that it brings inconsistent and low-quality updating direction for the 3D model, causing the over-smoothing effect. To address this, we propose a novel approach called Interval Score Matching (ISM). ISM employs deterministic diffusing trajectories and utilizes interval-based score matching to counteract over-smoothing. Furthermore, we incorporate 3D Gaussian Splatting into our text-to-3D generation pipeline. Extensive experiments show that our model largely outperforms the state-of-the-art in quality and training efficiency.

We present a novel data-driven simulation environment for modeling traffic in metropolitan street intersections. Using real-world tracking data collected over an extended period of time, we train trajectory forecasting models to learn agent interactions and environmental constraints that are difficult to capture conventionally. Trajectories of new agents are first coarsely generated by sampling from the spatial and temporal generative distributions, then refined using state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting models. The simulation can run either autonomously, or under explicit human control conditioned on the generative distributions. We present the experiments for a variety of model configurations. Under an iterative prediction scheme, the way-point-supervised TrajNet++ model obtained 0.36 Final Displacement Error (FDE) in 20 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU.

Evaluating software engineering agents on realistic benchmarks is costly, since each task may require multi-step code exploration, modification, and test execution. Existing efficient evaluation methods select representative subsets to estimate full-benchmark performance, but are largely result-only: they fit historical pass/fail response matrices or static task semantics, discarding how agents solve problems. We propose PTA-IRT, a Privileged Trajectory-Aware Item Response Theory framework that fuses process and outcome signals. Historical execution trajectories supply process-level evidence beyond pass/fail, such as explored context, attempted edits, and solving paths, which PTA-IRT uses as privileged information for calibration subset selection and ability estimation. Under low calibration budgets, PTA-IRT consistently outperforms prior IRT baselines on score and ranking recovery across four SWE benchmarks. Code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/DeepSoftwareAnalytics/PTA-IRT.

Trajectory planning is commonly used as part of a local planner in autonomous driving. This paper considers the problem of planning a continuous-curvature-rate trajectory between fixed start and goal states that minimizes a tunable trade-off between passenger comfort and travel time. The problem is an instance of infinite dimensional optimization over two continuous functions: a path, and a velocity profile. We propose a simplification of this problem that facilitates the discretization of both functions. This paper also proposes a method to quickly generate minimal-length paths between start and goal states based on a single tuning parameter: the second derivative of curvature. Furthermore, we discretize the set of velocity profiles along a given path into a selection of acceleration way-points along the path. Gradient-descent is then employed to minimize cost over feasible choices of the second derivative of curvature, and acceleration way-points, resulting in a method that repeatedly solves the path and velocity profiles in an iterative fashion. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the benefits of the proposed methods.

One technique to visualize the training of neural networks is to perform PCA on the parameters over the course of training and to project to the subspace spanned by the first few PCA components. In this paper we compare this technique to the PCA of a high dimensional random walk. We compute the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the covariance of the trajectory and prove that in the long trajectory and high dimensional limit most of the variance is in the first few PCA components, and that the projection of the trajectory onto any subspace spanned by PCA components is a Lissajous curve. We generalize these results to a random walk with momentum and to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes (i.e., a random walk in a quadratic potential) and show that in high dimensions the walk is not mean reverting, but will instead be trapped at a fixed distance from the minimum. We finally compare the distribution of PCA variances and the PCA projected training trajectories of a linear model trained on CIFAR-10 and ResNet-50-v2 trained on Imagenet and find that the distribution of PCA variances resembles a random walk with drift.

Bug reports serve as task specifications for repository-level automated program repair (APR) agents, but they often describe only the observed failure and omit repair-relevant information such as the failure-inducing behavior, behavioral requirement, and implementation scope. As a result, a repair agent may inspect irrelevant code, infer an incorrect requirement, or generate a patch that addresses the reported symptom without restoring the intended repository behavior. We present TrajSpec, a trajectory-guided approach for repository-supported bug report specification refinement. Given an original report and a pre-fix repository, TrajSpec runs a trajectory-collection agent and uses the resulting unverified trajectory as a source of trajectory-derived specification evidence. It organizes this evidence into a three-level representation consisting of a high-level interpretation of the issue, diagnostic findings supporting that interpretation, and concrete repository observations. TrajSpec then generates a draft refined report and applies repository-based review to remove unsupported claims, revise uncertain claims, and add repository-supported details. We evaluate TrajSpec on all 300 SWE-Bench Lite instances using Mini-SWE-Agent V2. TrajSpec's refined reports improve Pass@1 from 41.00% to 59.67% with GPT-5-mini and from 54.67% to 64.33% with MiniMax M2.5. On a stratified sample of 100 instances, TrajSpec's refined reports also improve Pass@1 from 41.00% to 71.00% with Agentless and from 47.00% to 72.00% with AutoCodeRover. Ablation results show that removing repository-based review or the hierarchical evidence representation reduces Pass@1 from 59.67% to 48.00% and 47.67%, respectively. Overall, TrajSpec provides actionable repository-supported context that consistently improves repair performance.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Computer-using agents (CUAs) are advancing rapidly across the digital world. A CUA trajectory records the agent's actions, states, and reasoning. Verifying whether it fulfilled the task instruction is central to CUA evaluation, data curation, and reinforcement learning. Neither human-written verifiers nor human annotators can provide such verification at scale, so the field increasingly turns to vision-language models (VLMs) as judges of CUA trajectories. But a fundamental question has long gone unexamined: are these VLM judges reliable enough? To study it systematically, we introduce OSReward, a realistic, high-quality benchmark that evaluates VLM judges on CUA trajectories. The trajectories come from diverse agent backbones executing human-verified instructions across platforms, then rigorously labeled with ground-truth verdicts through multi-stage human annotation. Building on it, we derive OSReward-Hard, a challenge set concentrating genuinely hard cases, and OSReward-Multi for fine-grained efficiency and alignment scoring. The most comprehensive evaluation of VLM judges to date finds even state-of-the-art models fall short of an ideal judge, sharing a systematic leniency bias that mislabels failed runs as successes. The few reliable enough to trust are too expensive to run at scale, while affordable open models trail far behind. To close this gap, we construct and release OS-Shepherd-100K, an open corpus of reasoning-annotated trajectory judgments for the CUA community. On it, we train OS-Shepherd (9B and 35B), open reward models that supply low-cost, stable, and reliable reward signals, matching commercial judges at 30-60% lower cost than the frontier. Extensive analyses further inform the design of reliable CUA reward at scale. Our code, benchmark, dataset, and model checkpoints are available at https://os-copilot.github.io/OSReward-Home/.

We study the problem of mapping parameter-space variance of a 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) to per-vertex variance. Traditionally, per-vertex variance has been used to visually interpret the learnt parameter uncertainty. However, mapping parameter-space variance to per-vertex using sampling or error propagation is computationally expensive. We address this limitation with Closed-form Local Uncertainty Estimation (CLUE), which transforms the parameter-space distribution of 3DMMs to per-vertex through a closed-form approximation. CLUE emerges from applying the law of total variance to the 3DMM formulation and is modular, computationally inexpensive, and accurate. Subsequently, we study integrating CLUE for in-the-wild human mesh recovery training and inference. We note that CLUE uses the geometry of the mesh as an inductive bias when predicting the variance, leading to improved accuracy. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments, we show that when used in training, CLUE (1) outpeforms probabilistic and deterministic baselines on metrics evaluating joints, mesh and uncertainty, and (2) has the highest uncertainty-to-error spearman correlation, with applications including data mining and interpretable uncertainty. Finally, we share SAM 3D Body (CLUE) which augments the regressor with high resolution uncertainty maps. We make our code available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/CLUE

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

Training large language models to reason with search engines via reinforcement learning is hindered by a fundamental credit assignment problem: existing methods such as Search-R1 provide only a sparse outcome reward after an entire multi-step trajectory, making it infeasible to attribute success or failure to individual reasoning and retrieval decisions. Process-reward methods like StepSearch alleviate this by introducing step-level supervision, but rely on heuristic rewards such as TF-IDF overlap with gold documents, and still sample k complete trajectories per example, retaining high gradient variance. We propose SLATE, a framework built on two complementary ideas: (1) truncated step-level sampling, which generates k trajectories that share a common prefix and differ only at the next step, and (2) dense LLM-as-judge rewards, which replace heuristic scoring with a capable LLM evaluator that assesses the quality of each reasoning step, search query, and answer, providing richer and more reliable supervision. We theoretically prove that under the same dense reward structure, truncated sampling reduces the variance of advantage estimates by up to a factor of T compared to full-trajectory sampling for T-step trajectories, yielding lower-variance, better-targeted policy gradients. Experiments on seven QA benchmarks confirm that SLATE consistently outperforms both sparse-reward and process-reward baselines, with the largest gains on harder multi-hop tasks and smaller models.

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories provide rich supervision signals for distilling reasoning from teacher to student LLMs. However, both prior work and our experiments show that trajectories from stronger teachers do not necessarily yield better students, highlighting the importance of data-student suitability in distillation. Existing methods assess suitability primarily through student likelihood, favoring trajectories that closely align with the model's current behavior but overlooking more informative ones. Addressing this, we propose Rank-Surprisal Ratio (RSR), a simple metric that captures both alignment and informativeness to assess the suitability of a reasoning trajectory. RSR is motivated by the observation that effective trajectories typically combine low absolute probability with relatively high-ranked tokens under the student model, balancing learning signal strength and behavioral alignment. Concretely, RSR is defined as the ratio of a trajectory's average token-wise rank to its average negative log-likelihood, and is straightforward to compute and interpret. Across five student models and reasoning trajectories from 11 diverse teachers, RSR strongly correlates with post-training performance (average Spearman 0.86), outperforming existing metrics. We further demonstrate its practical utility in both trajectory selection and teacher selection.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have led to substantial improvements in the mathematical reasoning abilities of LLMs, as measured by standard benchmarks. Yet these gains often persist even when models are trained with flawed signals, such as random or inverted rewards. This raises a fundamental question: do such improvements reflect genuine reasoning, or are they merely artifacts of overfitting to benchmark-specific patterns? To answer this question, we adopt an evaluation-centric perspective and highlight two critical shortcomings in existing protocols. First, benchmark contamination arises because test problems are publicly available, thereby increasing the risk of data leakage. Second, evaluation fragility results from reliance on single-instance assessments, which are sensitive to stochastic outputs and fail to capture reasoning consistency. These limitations suggest the need for a new evaluation paradigm that can probe reasoning ability beyond memorization and one-off success. As response, we propose VAR-MATH, a symbolic evaluation framework that converts fixed numerical problems into parameterized templates and requires models to solve multiple instantiations of each. This design enforces consistency across structurally equivalent variants, mitigates contamination, and enhances robustness through bootstrapped metrics. We apply VAR-MATH to transform three popular benchmarks, AMC23, AIME24, and AIME25, into their symbolic counterparts, VAR-AMC23, VAR-AIME24, and VAR-AIME25. Experimental results show substantial performance drops for RL-trained models on these variabilized benchmarks, especially for smaller models, with average declines of 47.9\% on AMC23, 58.8\% on AIME24, and 72.9\% on AIME25. These findings indicate that some existing RL methods rely on superficial heuristics and fail to generalize beyond specific numerical forms.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a core post-training recipe. Introducing suitable off-policy trajectories into on-policy exploration accelerates RLVR convergence and raises the performance ceiling, yet finding a source of such trajectories remains the key challenge. Existing mixed-policy methods either import trajectories from external teachers (high-quality but distributionally far) or replay past training trajectories (close but capped in quality), and neither simultaneously satisfies the strong enough (higher Q , more new knowledge to learn) and close enough (lower V , more readily absorbed) conditions required to maximize the effective learning signal S = Q/V. We propose Near-Future Policy Optimization (NPO), a simple mixed-policy scheme that learns from a policy's own near-future self: a later checkpoint from the same training run is a natural source of auxiliary trajectories that is both stronger than the current policy and closer than any external source, directly balancing trajectory quality against variance cost. We validate NPO through two manual interventions, early-stage bootstrapping and late-stage plateau breakthrough, and further propose AutoNPO,an adaptive variant that automatically triggers interventions from online training signals and selects the guide checkpoint that maximizes S. On Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct with GRPO, NPO improves average performance from 57.88 to 62.84, and AutoNPO pushes it to 63.15, raising the final performance ceiling while accelerating convergence.

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

Agentic applications based on large language models increasingly rely on multi-step interaction loops involving planning, action execution, and environment feedback. While such systems are now deployed at scale, improving them post-deployment remains challenging. Agent trajectories are voluminous and non-deterministic, and reviewing each one, whether through human review or auxiliary LLMs, is slow and cost-prohibitive. We propose a lightweight, signal-based framework for triaging agentic interaction trajectories. Our approach computes cheap, broadly applicable signals from live interactions and attaches them as structured attributes for trajectory triage, identifying interactions likely to be informative without affecting online agent behavior. We organize signals into a coarse-grained taxonomy spanning interaction (misalignment, stagnation, disengagement, satisfaction), execution (failure, loop), and environment (exhaustion), designed for computation without model calls. In a controlled annotation study on τ-bench, a widely used benchmark for tool-augmented agent evaluation, we show that signal-based sampling achieves an 82\% informativeness rate compared to 74\% for heuristic filtering and 54\% for random sampling, with a 1.52x efficiency gain per informative trajectory. The advantage is robust across reward strata and task domains, confirming that signals provide genuine per-trajectory informativeness gains rather than merely oversampling obvious failures. These results show that lightweight signals can serve as practical sampling infrastructure for agentic systems, and suggest a path toward preference data construction and post-deployment optimization.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Spatiotemporal trajectories are sequences of timestamped locations, which enable a variety of analyses that in turn enable important real-world applications. It is common to map trajectories to vectors, called embeddings, before subsequent analyses. Thus, the qualities of embeddings are very important. Methods for pre-training embeddings, which leverage unlabeled trajectories for training universal embeddings, have shown promising applicability across different tasks, thus attracting considerable interest. However, research progress on this topic faces two key challenges: a lack of a comprehensive overview of existing methods, resulting in several related methods not being well-recognized, and the absence of a unified pipeline, complicating the development of new methods and the analysis of methods. We present UniTE, a survey and a unified pipeline for this domain. In doing so, we present a comprehensive list of existing methods for pre-training trajectory embeddings, which includes methods that either explicitly or implicitly employ pre-training techniques. Further, we present a unified and modular pipeline with publicly available underlying code, simplifying the process of constructing and evaluating methods for pre-training trajectory embeddings. Additionally, we contribute a selection of experimental results using the proposed pipeline on real-world datasets. Implementation of the pipeline is publicly available at https://github.com/Logan-Lin/UniTE.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

This study investigates the dynamics of pedestrian crossing flows with varying crossing angles α to classify different scenarios and derive implications for crowd management. Probability density functions of four key features-velocity v, density ρ, avoidance number Av, and intrusion number In-were analyzed to characterize pedestrian behavior. Velocity-density fundamental diagrams were constructed for each α and fitted with functional forms from existing literature. Classification attempts using Av-In and v-ρ phase spaces revealed significant overlaps, highlighting the limitations of these metrics alone for scenario differentiation. To address this, machine learning models, including logistic regression and random forest, were employed using all four features. Results showed robust classification performance, with v and Av contributing most significantly. Insights from feature importance metrics and classification accuracy offer practical guidance for managing high-density crowds, optimizing pedestrian flow, and designing safer public spaces. These findings provide a data-driven framework for advancing pedestrian dynamics research.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Safety-critical applications such as autonomous vehicles and social robots require fast computation and accurate probability density estimation on trajectory prediction. To address both requirements, this paper presents a new normalizing flow-based trajectory prediction model named FlowChain. FlowChain is a stack of conditional continuously-indexed flows (CIFs) that are expressive and allow analytical probability density computation. This analytical computation is faster than the generative models that need additional approximations such as kernel density estimation. Moreover, FlowChain is more accurate than the Gaussian mixture-based models due to fewer assumptions on the estimated density. FlowChain also allows a rapid update of estimated probability densities. This update is achieved by adopting the newest observed position and reusing the flow transformations and its log-det-jacobians that represent the motion trend. This update is completed in less than one millisecond because this reuse greatly omits the computational cost. Experimental results showed our FlowChain achieved state-of-the-art trajectory prediction accuracy compared to previous methods. Furthermore, our FlowChain demonstrated superiority in the accuracy and speed of density estimation. Our code is available at https://github.com/meaten/FlowChain-ICCV2023

Predicting how a dynamical unit evolves over time - how an individual ages, an epidemic spreads, or a physical system degrades - typically requires dense longitudinal tracking. When only extremely sparse or entirely cross-sectional data is available, inferring individualized, continuous-time trajectories is fundamentally ill-posed. Existing methods force a strict compromise: sequence models (e.g. latent ODEs) require dense longitudinal data, while cross-sectional methods (e.g. optimal transport, flow matching-based) map aggregate populations, losing individual dynamics. In this paper, we demonstrate that this dichotomy can be broken. We introduce CADENCE, a principled probabilistic framework that recovers continuous individual trajectories from isolated snapshots by anchoring latent dynamics to static, individual-level contexts. We provide novel identifiability guarantees for single-timepoint trajectory inference. By combining a score-based spatial encoder (bijective Probability Flow ODE) to eliminate diffeomorphic ambiguities with a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) router, we show that individual dynamical parameters and routing function are jointly identifiable. Across a suite of benchmarks spanning physical systems to real-world biological data, CADENCE, trained strictly on extremely sparse snapshots with context structure, matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art sequential models trained on dense, full-trajectory data.

Adversarial attacks on vision-language models optimize an image toward a text target, then cite the attacked model's similarity score as evidence of success. We ask whether that score - victim-space target alignment (VTS) - predicts recovery of the target by an independent model. We first build a measurement instrument: supervised judges outside the attacked geometry, real-target blend controls, shuffled-target negatives, and a reference level derived from a 50% target-image blend. Two preregistered studies then compare six contrastive encoders under a matched attack at three perturbation budgets. Robustly trained encoders (FARE, TeCoA, PMG, TRADES) transfer substantially more independent evidence than vanilla CLIP or SigLIP; all eight contrasts reject at the bootstrap floor. However, no cell reaches the blend-derived reference level. The three best cells fall within its replication band, leaving practical recovery undecided. Within robust encoders, per-sample alignment gain correlates with evidence gain (ρ= 0.24-0.51); within vanilla CLIP the correlation is consistent with zero. Across encoders we find no monotone alignment-evidence relation. VTS is therefore informative only within a fixed robust encoder, and we provide a reporting protocol in its place.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Identifying travelers' transportation modes is important in transportation science and location-based services. It's appealing for researchers to leverage GPS trajectory data to infer transportation modes with the popularity of GPS-enabled devices, e.g., smart phones. Existing studies frame this problem as classification task. The dominant two-stage studies divide the trip into single-one mode segments first and then categorize these segments. The over segmentation strategy and inevitable error propagation bring difficulties to classification stage and make optimizing the whole system hard. The recent one-stage works throw out trajectory segmentation entirely to avoid these by directly conducting point-wise classification for the trip, whereas leaving predictions dis-continuous. To solve above-mentioned problems, inspired by YOLO and SSD in object detection, we propose to reframe change point detection and segment classification as a unified regression task instead of the existing classification task. We directly regress coordinates of change points and classify associated segments. In this way, our method divides the trip into segments under a supervised manner and leverage more contextual information, obtaining predictions with high accuracy and continuity. Two frameworks, TrajYOLO and TrajSSD, are proposed to solve the regression task and various feature extraction backbones are exploited. Exhaustive experiments on GeoLife dataset show that the proposed method has competitive overall identification accuracy of 0.853 when distinguishing five modes: walk, bike, bus, car, train. As for change point detection, our method increases precision at the cost of drop in recall. All codes are available at https://github.com/RadetzkyLi/TrajYOLO-SSD.

Large language model agents solve tasks by generating trajectories that interleave planning, tool calls, and intermediate results. Current evaluation metrics reduce such a trajectory to a binary success flag, compare it against a reference by exact matching, or delegate judgment to another language model. A success flag cannot distinguish a sound solution from one that succeeds by luck, and says nothing about why a failed run went wrong. Exact matching penalizes plans that are valid but reordered or decomposed differently from the reference. We reframe trajectory evaluation as a distance between the agent's execution graph and a set of valid solution graphs, and instantiate it via an unbalanced fused Gromov-Wasserstein transport problem over attributed dependency graphs. The resulting score, termed OTAP (Optimal Transport for Agentic Planning), is a pseudo-metric that is provably invariant to dependency-preserving reorderings and has bounded sensitivity to redundant steps. Its unbalanced marginals handle missing or hallucinated steps without forcing a match, and its soft coupling accommodates variation in plan granularity. On controlled perturbations and three public benchmarks, OTAP separates valid from invalid trajectories in a regime where semantics-only metrics score below chance. Its advantage tracks the fidelity of the dependency graph: largest where edges follow from operator semantics, smallest where they are inferred from free text. Where a formal verifier exists, strict surface metrics predict validity better than OTAP does, which places OTAP in open-ended domains where no verifier is available.

Traffic anomaly detection has played a crucial role in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). The main challenges of this task lie in the highly diversified anomaly scenes and variational lighting conditions. Although much work has managed to identify the anomaly in homogenous weather and scene, few resolved to cope with complex ones. In this paper, we proposed a dual-modality modularized methodology for the robust detection of abnormal vehicles. We introduced an integrated anomaly detection framework comprising the following modules: background modeling, vehicle tracking with detection, mask construction, Region of Interest (ROI) backtracking, and dual-modality tracing. Concretely, we employed background modeling to filter the motion information and left the static information for later vehicle detection. For the vehicle detection and tracking module, we adopted YOLOv5 and multi-scale tracking to localize the anomalies. Besides, we utilized the frame difference and tracking results to identify the road and obtain the mask. In addition, we introduced multiple similarity estimation metrics to refine the anomaly period via backtracking. Finally, we proposed a dual-modality bilateral tracing module to refine the time further. The experiments conducted on the Track 4 testset of the NVIDIA 2021 AI City Challenge yielded a result of 0.9302 F1-Score and 3.4039 root mean square error (RMSE), indicating the effectiveness of our framework.

We introduce a benchmark for system identification based on 75k real-world samples from the Crazyflie 2.1 Brushless nano-quadrotor, a sub-50g aerial vehicle widely adopted in robotics research. The platform presents a challenging testbed due to its multi-input, multi-output nature, open-loop instability, and nonlinear dynamics under agile maneuvers. The dataset comprises four aggressive trajectories with synchronized 4-dimensional motor inputs and 13-dimensional output measurements. To enable fair comparison of identification methods, the benchmark includes a suite of multi-horizon prediction metrics for evaluating both one-step and multi-step error propagation. In addition to the data, we provide a detailed description of the platform and experimental setup, as well as baseline models highlighting the challenge of accurate prediction under real-world noise and actuation nonlinearities. All data, scripts, and reference implementations are released as open-source at https://github.com/idsia-robotics/nanodrone-sysid-benchmark to facilitate transparent comparison of algorithms and support research on agile, miniaturized aerial robotics.

The ability to simulate the world in a spatially consistent manner is a crucial requirement for effective world models. Such a model enables high-quality visual generation, and also ensures the reliability of world models for downstream tasks such as simulation and planning. It must not only retain long-horizon observational information, but also enables the construction of explicit or implicit internal spatial representations. However, existing datasets do not explicitly enforce spatial consistency constraints, limiting both the ability to systematically evaluate this capability and to learn it through data-driven approaches. Furthermore, most existing benchmarks primarily emphasize visual coherence or generation quality, neglecting the requirement of long-range spatial consistency. To bridge this gap, we propose LoopNav, a dataset and corresponding benchmark centered on loop-based navigation for evaluating spatial consistency. The dataset comprises 250 hours (20 million frames) of loop-based navigation videos with actions, collected from diverse locations in the open-world environment of Minecraft. We further introduce a Scene Graph Consistency Score to quantify spatial consistency while remaining invariant to pixel-level variations. Dataset, benchmark, and code are open-sourced to support future research.

Effectively managing Air Traffic Control Officer (ATCO) workload is crucial in maintaining operational safety. Group supervisors use tools that estimate upcoming traffic load to aid decision-making. However, industry-standard models can fail to capture the nuances of upcoming air traffic complexity. This study presents a probabilistic approach to forecast the complexity of an airspace sector using the number of relevant aircraft pairs, i.e., those that require monitoring or deconfliction by a controller, as a proxy measure for ATCO workload. We adapted an existing filter algorithm to make it suitable for use in London Middle Sector (LMS), a complex airspace sector with multiple flows of traffic above some of the busiest airports in Europe. Through iterative feedback with ATCOs, the algorithm was refined and extended to handle specific geometric and operational considerations. The updated algorithm outperformed the original, with an F1-score of 0.84 compared to 0.69 on a labelled set of 50 traffic scenarios. To produce forecasts of future numbers of relevant aircraft pairs in the sector, a graph representation of the LMS route network was constructed, standardising the spatial fidelity of route legs. The forecasting method accounts for uncertainty in aircraft arrival times by modelling the probability of each aircraft occupying route segments at future query times. When combined with historic distributions of relevant interactions and a live operational data stream, predictions of upcoming ATCO workload could be made up to 45 minutes in advance. The proposed method to forecast upcoming workload showed a significantly stronger correlation with actual relevant interactions (Spearman's ρ= 0.68) than a standard traffic volume prediction (ρ= 0.55). The resulting data-driven tool shows promise for use by group supervisors to inform sector configuration and ATCO rostering decisions.

We consider the problem of predicting the future trajectory of scene agents from egocentric views obtained from a moving platform. This problem is important in a variety of domains, particularly for autonomous systems making reactive or strategic decisions in navigation. In an attempt to address this problem, we introduce TITAN (Trajectory Inference using Targeted Action priors Network), a new model that incorporates prior positions, actions, and context to forecast future trajectory of agents and future ego-motion. In the absence of an appropriate dataset for this task, we created the TITAN dataset that consists of 700 labeled video-clips (with odometry) captured from a moving vehicle on highly interactive urban traffic scenes in Tokyo. Our dataset includes 50 labels including vehicle states and actions, pedestrian age groups, and targeted pedestrian action attributes that are organized hierarchically corresponding to atomic, simple/complex-contextual, transportive, and communicative actions. To evaluate our model, we conducted extensive experiments on the TITAN dataset, revealing significant performance improvement against baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms. We also report promising results from our Agent Importance Mechanism (AIM), a module which provides insight into assessment of perceived risk by calculating the relative influence of each agent on the future ego-trajectory. The dataset is available at https://usa.honda-ri.com/titan

When OpenAI deprecated GPT-4o in early 2026, thousands of users protested under #keep4o, claiming newer models had "lost their empathy." No published study has tested this claim. We conducted the first clinical measurement, evaluating three OpenAI model generations (GPT-4o, o4-mini, GPT-5-mini) across 14 emotionally challenging conversational scenarios in mental health and AI companion domains, producing 2,100 scored AI responses assessed on six psychological safety dimensions using clinically-grounded rubrics. Empathy scores are statistically indistinguishable across all three models (Kruskal-Wallis H=4.33, p=0.115). What changed is the safety posture: crisis detection improved monotonically from GPT-4o to GPT-5-mini (H=13.88, p=0.001), while advice safety declined (H=16.63, p<0.001). Per-turn trajectory analysis -- a novel methodological contribution -- reveals these shifts are sharpest during mid-conversation crisis moments invisible to aggregate scoring. In a self-harm scenario involving a minor, GPT-4o scored 3.6/10 on crisis detection during early disclosure turns; GPT-5-mini never dropped below 7.8. What users perceived as "lost empathy" was a shift from a cautious model that missed crises to an alert model that sometimes says too much -- a trade-off with real consequences for vulnerable users, currently invisible to both the people who feel it and the developers who create it.

We propose ComDrive: the first comfort-oriented end-to-end autonomous driving system to generate temporally consistent and comfortable trajectories. Recent studies have demonstrated that imitation learning-based planners and learning-based trajectory scorers can effectively generate and select safety trajectories that closely mimic expert demonstrations. However, such trajectory planners and scorers face the challenge of generating temporally inconsistent and uncomfortable trajectories. To address these issues, ComDrive first extracts 3D spatial representations through sparse perception, which then serves as conditional inputs. These inputs are used by a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM)-based motion planner to generate temporally consistent multi-modal trajectories. A dual-stream adaptive trajectory scorer subsequently selects the most comfortable trajectory from these candidates to control the vehicle. Experiments demonstrate that ComDrive achieves state-of-the-art performance in both comfort and safety, outperforming UniAD by 17% in driving comfort and reducing collision rates by 25% compared to SparseDrive. More results are available on our project page: https://jmwang0117.github.io/ComDrive/.

LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a cornerstone technique for evaluating large language models by leveraging LLM reasoning to score prompt-response pairs. Since LLM judgments are stochastic, practitioners commonly query each pair multiple times to estimate mean scores accurately. This raises a critical challenge: given a fixed computational budget B, how to optimally allocate queries across K prompt-response pairs to minimize estimation error? % We present a principled variance-adaptive approach leveraging multi-armed bandit theory and concentration inequalities. Our method dynamically allocates queries based on estimated score variances, concentrating resources where uncertainty is highest. Further, our algorithm is shown to achieve a worst-case score-estimation error of Oleft(frac{sum_{i=1^K σ_i^2}{B}}right), σ_i^2 being the unknown score variance for pair i in [K] with near-optimal budget allocation. % Experiments on Summarize-From-Feedback and HelpSteer2 demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms uniform allocation, reducing worst-case estimation error while maintaining identical budgets. Our work establishes a theoretical foundation for efficient LLM evaluation with practical implications for AI safety, model alignment, and automated assessment at scale.

Behavioral cloning trains a policy offline on expert demonstrations, but deployment is closed loop: each action affects the observations the policy receives next. We study how much closed-loop driving competence a compact multimodal policy can acquire from offline demonstrations in the CARLA simulator. The policy uses five-frame histories of RGB images, LiDAR, vehicle telemetry, and lane waypoints to predict throttle, brake, and steering at 20 Hz. Demonstrations were collected in three stages, ending with a systematic route-generation procedure that enumerates spawn points and feasible maneuvers and verifies completed autopilot routes. The released 1.36 million parameter policy was trained on 236,882 windows, representing about 3.3 hours of driving from 448 captures. The resulting policy drives autonomously for hours on training and held-out routes. In our runs, it did so without collisions and also transferred qualitatively to an unseen CARLA town with different road geometry. We also observed recovery from large trajectory deviations, although we do not claim systematic recovery without controlled evaluation. We report offline metrics and distinguish measured results from qualitative closed-loop observations. We release the code, trained checkpoint, ONNX model, data sample, and an evidence audit for the reported claims.

A reasoning model can improve from its own on-policy experience, but this inner loop is fragile: terminal verifiers provide reliable yet sparse supervision, while dense same-model guidance can reinforce false confidence or overconcentrate learning on a narrow solution mode. We introduce FlowBalance, a verifier-grounded self-improvement method that learns a normalized distribution over complete responses. For each on-policy trajectory, a frozen training-time view of the same policy uses privileged context to produce token-level log-probability gains, which are aggregated into a trajectory-level self-guidance score. FlowBalance calibrates this score with the verifier-derived group advantage: guidance is retained on positive-advantage trajectories, reversed on negative-advantage trajectories, and disabled when the rollout group provides no outcome preference. The resulting energy exponentially reweights a reference policy, and profiled trajectory balance fits the normalized target with one log-partition estimate per rollout group. This realizes outcome-calibrated self-guidance via trajectory balance, without a separate token-level imitation loss. Our analysis establishes within-group contrast preservation, a minimum-change reverse-KL characterization, monotonic verifier control of target reward, and an exact correction against false-positive self-guidance on rejected responses. On mathematical reasoning, FlowBalance improves average performance over FlowRL on both Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B, while also improving training speed and stability, avoiding direct OPSD's response-length collapse, and exhibiting higher correct-strategy diversity in a controlled AIME24 diagnostic.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents increasingly rely on tool use to complete real-world tasks. While existing works evaluate the LLMs' tool use capability, they largely focus on the final answers yet overlook the detailed tool usage trajectory, i.e., whether tools are selected, parameterized, and ordered correctly. We introduce TRAJECT-Bench, a trajectory-aware benchmark to comprehensively evaluate LLMs' tool use capability through diverse tasks with fine-grained evaluation metrics. TRAJECT-Bench pairs high-fidelity, executable tools across practical domains with tasks grounded in production-style APIs, and synthesizes trajectories that vary in breadth (parallel calls) and depth (interdependent chains). Besides final accuracy, TRAJECT-Bench also reports trajectory-level diagnostics, including tool selection and argument correctness, and dependency/order satisfaction. Analyses reveal failure modes such as similar tool confusion and parameter-blind selection, and scaling behavior with tool diversity and trajectory length where the bottleneck of transiting from short to mid-length trajectories is revealed, offering actionable guidance for LLMs' tool use.