Daily Papers

Accurate histopathologic interpretation is key for clinical decision-making; however, current deep learning models for digital pathology are often overconfident and poorly calibrated in out-of-distribution (OOD) settings, which limit trust and clinical adoption. Safety-critical medical imaging workflows benefit from intrinsic uncertainty-aware properties that can accurately reject OOD input. We implement the Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a set of lightweight modifications that apply spectral normalization and replace the final dense layer with a Gaussian process layer to improve single-model uncertainty estimation and OOD detection. We evaluate SNGP vs. deterministic and MonteCarlo dropout on six datasets across three biomedical classification tasks: white blood cells, amyloid plaques, and colorectal histopathology. SNGP has comparable in-distribution performance while significantly improving uncertainty estimation and OOD detection. Thus, SNGP or related models offer a useful framework for uncertainty-aware classification in digital pathology, supporting safe deployment and building trust with pathologists.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease impairing a person's ability to perform day to day activities. The clinical manifestations of Alzheimer's disease are characterized by heterogeneity in age, disease span, progression rate, impairment of memory and cognitive abilities. Due to these variabilities, personalized care and treatment planning, as well as patient counseling about their individual progression is limited. Recent developments in machine learning to detect hidden patterns in complex, multi-dimensional datasets provides significant opportunities to address this critical need. In this work, we use unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches for subtype identification and prediction. We apply machine learning methods to the extensive clinical observations available at the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data set to identify patient subtypes and to predict disease progression. Our analysis depicts the progression space for the Alzheimer's disease into low, moderate and high disease progression zones. The proposed work will enable early detection and characterization of distinct disease subtypes based on clinical heterogeneity. We anticipate that our models will enable patient counseling, clinical trial design, and ultimately individualized clinical care.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that primarily affects the aging population by impairing cognitive and motor functions. Early detection of AD through accessible methodologies like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is vital for developing effective interventions to halt or slow the disease's progression. This study aims to perform a comprehensive analysis of machine learning techniques for selecting MRI-based biomarkers and classifying individuals into healthy controls (HC) and unstable controls (uHC) who later show mild cognitive impairment within five years. The research utilizes MRI data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroinformatics Initiative (ADNI) and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies 3 (OASIS-3), focusing on both HC and uHC participants. The study addresses the challenges of imbalanced data by testing classification methods on balanced and unbalanced datasets, and harmonizes data using polynomial regression to mitigate nuisance variables like age, gender, and intracranial volume. Results indicate that Gaussian Naive Bayes and RusBoost classifiers shows an optimal performance, achieving accuracies of up to 76.46% and 72.48% respectively on the ADNI dataset. For the OASIS-3 dataset, Kernel Naive Bayes and RusBoost yield accuracies ranging from 64.66% to 75.71%, improving further in age-matched datasets. Brain regions like the entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, lateral ventricle, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex are identified as significantly impacted during early cognitive decline. Despite limitations such as small sample sizes, the study's harmonization approach enhances the robustness of biomarker selection, suggesting the potential of this semi-automatic machine learning pipeline for early AD detection using MRI.

Synthesizing amyloid PET scans from the more widely available and accessible structural MRI modality offers a promising, cost-effective approach for large-scale Alzheimer's Disease (AD) screening. This is motivated by evidence that, while MRI does not directly detect amyloid pathology, it may nonetheless encode information correlated with amyloid deposition that can be uncovered through advanced modeling. However, the high dimensionality and structural complexity of 3D neuroimaging data pose significant challenges for existing MRI-to-PET translation methods. Modeling the cross-modality relationship in a lower-dimensional latent space can simplify the learning task and enable more effective translation. As such, we present CoCoLIT (ControlNet-Conditioned Latent Image Translation), a diffusion-based latent generative framework that incorporates three main innovations: (1) a novel Weighted Image Space Loss (WISL) that improves latent representation learning and synthesis quality; (2) a theoretical and empirical analysis of Latent Average Stabilization (LAS), an existing technique used in similar generative models to enhance inference consistency; and (3) the introduction of ControlNet-based conditioning for MRI-to-PET translation. We evaluate CoCoLIT's performance on publicly available datasets and find that our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on both image-based and amyloid-related metrics. Notably, in amyloid-positivity classification, CoCoLIT outperforms the second-best method with improvements of +10.5% on the internal dataset and +23.7% on the external dataset. The code and models of our approach are available at https://github.com/brAIn-science/CoCoLIT.

Objective: We develop a deep learning framework based on the pre-trained Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model using unstructured clinical notes from electronic health records (EHRs) to predict the risk of disease progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Materials and Methods: We identified 3657 patients diagnosed with MCI together with their progress notes from Northwestern Medicine Enterprise Data Warehouse (NMEDW) between 2000-2020. The progress notes no later than the first MCI diagnosis were used for the prediction. We first preprocessed the notes by deidentification, cleaning and splitting, and then pretrained a BERT model for AD (AD-BERT) based on the publicly available Bio+Clinical BERT on the preprocessed notes. The embeddings of all the sections of a patient's notes processed by AD-BERT were combined by MaxPooling to compute the probability of MCI-to-AD progression. For replication, we conducted a similar set of experiments on 2563 MCI patients identified at Weill Cornell Medicine (WCM) during the same timeframe. Results: Compared with the 7 baseline models, the AD-BERT model achieved the best performance on both datasets, with Area Under receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) of 0.8170 and F1 score of 0.4178 on NMEDW dataset and AUC of 0.8830 and F1 score of 0.6836 on WCM dataset. Conclusion: We developed a deep learning framework using BERT models which provide an effective solution for prediction of MCI-to-AD progression using clinical note analysis.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires handling tabular biomarker data, yet such data are often small and incomplete, where deep learning models frequently fail to outperform classical methods. Pretrained large language models (LLMs) offer few-shot generalization, structured reasoning, and interpretable outputs, providing a powerful paradigm shift for clinical prediction. We propose TAP-GPT Tabular Alzheimer's Prediction GPT, a domain-adapted tabular LLM framework built on TableGPT2 and fine-tuned for few-shot AD classification using tabular prompts rather than plain texts. We evaluate TAP-GPT across four ADNI-derived datasets, including QT-PAD biomarkers and region-level structural MRI, amyloid PET, and tau PET for binary AD classification. Across multimodal and unimodal settings, TAP-GPT improves upon its backbone models and outperforms traditional machine learning baselines in the few-shot setting while remaining competitive with state-of-the-art general-purpose LLMs. We show that feature selection mitigates degradation in high-dimensional inputs and that TAP-GPT maintains stable performance under simulated and real-world missingness without imputation. Additionally, TAP-GPT produces structured, modality-aware reasoning aligned with established AD biology and shows greater stability under self-reflection, supporting its use in iterative multi-agent systems. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic application of a tabular-specialized LLM to multimodal biomarker-based AD prediction, demonstrating that such pretrained models can effectively address structured clinical prediction tasks and laying the foundation for tabular LLM-driven multi-agent clinical decision-support systems. The source code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/sophie-kearney/TAP-GPT.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) constitutes a complex neurocognitive disease and is the main cause of dementia. Although many studies have been proposed targeting at diagnosing dementia through spontaneous speech, there are still limitations. Existing state-of-the-art approaches, which propose multimodal methods, train separately language and acoustic models, employ majority-vote approaches, and concatenate the representations of the different modalities either at the input level, i.e., early fusion, or during training. Also, some of them employ self-attention layers, which calculate the dependencies between representations without considering the contextual information. In addition, no prior work has taken into consideration the model calibration. To address these limitations, we propose some new methods for detecting AD patients, which capture the intra- and cross-modal interactions. First, we convert the audio files into log-Mel spectrograms, their delta, and delta-delta and create in this way an image per audio file consisting of three channels. Next, we pass each transcript and image through BERT and DeiT models respectively. After that, context-based self-attention layers, self-attention layers with a gate model, and optimal transport domain adaptation methods are employed for capturing the intra- and inter-modal interactions. Finally, we exploit two methods for fusing the self and cross-attended features. For taking into account the model calibration, we apply label smoothing. We use both performance and calibration metrics. Experiments conducted on the ADReSS Challenge dataset indicate the efficacy of our introduced approaches over existing research initiatives with our best performing model reaching Accuracy and F1-score up to 91.25% and 91.06% respectively.

Alongside neuroimaging such as MRI scans and PET, Alzheimer's disease (AD) datasets contain valuable tabular data including AD biomarkers and clinical assessments. Existing computer vision approaches struggle to utilize this additional information. To address these needs, we propose a generalizable framework for multimodal contrastive learning of image data and tabular data, a novel tabular attention module for amplifying and ranking salient features in tables, and the application of these techniques onto Alzheimer's disease prediction. Experimental evaulations demonstrate the strength of our framework by detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD) from over 882 MR image slices from the ADNI database. We take advantage of the high interpretability of tabular data and our novel tabular attention approach and through attribution of the attention scores for each row of the table, we note and rank the most predominant features. Results show that the model is capable of an accuracy of over 83.8%, almost a 10% increase from previous state of the art.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive and incurable neurodegenerative disease which destroys brain cells and causes loss to patient's memory. An early detection can prevent the patient from further damage of the brain cells and hence avoid permanent memory loss. In past few years, various automatic tools and techniques have been proposed for diagnosis of AD. Several methods focus on fast, accurate and early detection of the disease to minimize the loss to patients mental health. Although machine learning and deep learning techniques have significantly improved medical imaging systems for AD by providing diagnostic performance close to human level. But the main problem faced during multi-class classification is the presence of highly correlated features in the brain structure. In this paper, we have proposed a smart and accurate way of diagnosing AD based on a two-dimensional deep convolutional neural network (2D-DCNN) using imbalanced three-dimensional MRI dataset. Experimental results on Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) dataset confirms that the proposed 2D-DCNN model is superior in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and robustness. The model classifies MRI into three categories: AD, mild cognitive impairment, and normal control: and has achieved 99.89% classification accuracy with imbalanced classes. The proposed model exhibits noticeable improvement in accuracy as compared to the state-fo-the-art methods.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is marked by significant inter-individual variability in its progression, complicating accurate prognosis and personalized care planning. This heterogeneity underscores the critical need for predictive models capable of forecasting patient-specific disease trajectories. Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers powerful tools to address this challenge by analyzing complex, multi-modal, and longitudinal patient data. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of AI methodologies applied to personalized AD progression prediction. We review key approaches including state-space models for capturing temporal dynamics, deep learning techniques like Recurrent Neural Networks for sequence modeling, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for leveraging network structures, and the emerging concept of AI-driven digital twins for individualized simulation. Recognizing that data limitations often impede progress, we examine common challenges such as high dimensionality, missing data, and dataset imbalance. We further discuss AI-driven mitigation strategies, with a specific focus on synthetic data generation using Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) and Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to augment and balance datasets. The survey synthesizes the strengths and limitations of current approaches, emphasizing the trend towards multimodal integration and the persistent need for model interpretability and generalizability. Finally, we identify critical open challenges, including robust external validation, clinical integration, and ethical considerations, and outline promising future research directions such as hybrid models, causal inference, and federated learning. This review aims to consolidate current knowledge and guide future efforts in developing clinically relevant AI tools for personalized AD prognostication.

Neurological diseases are the leading global cause of disability, yet most lack disease-modifying treatments. We present PROTON, a heterogeneous graph transformer that generates testable hypotheses across molecular, organoid, and clinical systems. To evaluate PROTON, we apply it to Parkinson's disease (PD), bipolar disorder (BD), and Alzheimer's disease (AD). In PD, PROTON linked genetic risk loci to genes essential for dopaminergic neuron survival and predicted pesticides toxic to patient-derived neurons, including the insecticide endosulfan, which ranked within the top 1.29% of predictions. In silico screens performed by PROTON reproduced six genome-wide α-synuclein experiments, including a split-ubiquitin yeast two-hybrid system (normalized enrichment score [NES] = 2.30, FDR-adjusted p < 1 times 10^{-4}), an ascorbate peroxidase proximity labeling assay (NES = 2.16, FDR < 1 times 10^{-4}), and a high-depth targeted exome sequencing study in 496 synucleinopathy patients (NES = 2.13, FDR < 1 times 10^{-4}). In BD, PROTON predicted calcitriol as a candidate drug that reversed proteomic alterations observed in cortical organoids derived from BD patients. In AD, we evaluated PROTON predictions in health records from n = 610,524 patients at Mass General Brigham, confirming that five PROTON-predicted drugs were associated with reduced seven-year dementia risk (minimum hazard ratio = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.53-0.75, p < 1 times 10^{-7}). PROTON generated neurological hypotheses that were evaluated across molecular, organoid, and clinical systems, defining a path for AI-driven discovery in neurological disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a chronic neurodegenerative disorder and the leading cause of dementia, significantly impacting cost, mortality, and burden worldwide. The advent of high-throughput omics technologies, such as genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and epigenomics, has revolutionized the molecular understanding of AD. Conventional AI approaches typically require the completion of all omics data at the outset to achieve optimal AD diagnosis, which are inefficient and may be unnecessary. To reduce the clinical cost and improve the accuracy of AD diagnosis using multi-omics data, we propose a novel staged graph convolutional network with uncertainty quantification (SGUQ). SGUQ begins with mRNA and progressively incorporates DNA methylation and miRNA data only when necessary, reducing overall costs and exposure to harmful tests. Experimental results indicate that 46.23% of the samples can be reliably predicted using only single-modal omics data (mRNA), while an additional 16.04% of the samples can achieve reliable predictions when combining two omics data types (mRNA + DNA methylation). In addition, the proposed staged SGUQ achieved an accuracy of 0.858 on ROSMAP dataset, which outperformed existing methods significantly. The proposed SGUQ can not only be applied to AD diagnosis using multi-omics data but also has the potential for clinical decision-making using multi-viewed data. Our implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/chenzhao2023/multiomicsuncertainty.

Research related to automatically detecting Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important, given the high prevalence of AD and the high cost of traditional methods. Since AD significantly affects the content and acoustics of spontaneous speech, natural language processing and machine learning provide promising techniques for reliably detecting AD. We compare and contrast the performance of two such approaches for AD detection on the recent ADReSS challenge dataset: 1) using domain knowledge-based hand-crafted features that capture linguistic and acoustic phenomena, and 2) fine-tuning Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT)-based sequence classification models. We also compare multiple feature-based regression models for a neuropsychological score task in the challenge. We observe that fine-tuned BERT models, given the relative importance of linguistics in cognitive impairment detection, outperform feature-based approaches on the AD detection task.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a common neurodegenerative disease among the elderly. Early prediction and timely intervention of its prodromal stage, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), can decrease the risk of advancing to AD. Combining information from various modalities can significantly improve predictive accuracy. However, challenges such as missing data and heterogeneity across modalities complicate multimodal learning methods as adding more modalities can worsen these issues. Current multimodal fusion techniques often fail to adapt to the complexity of medical data, hindering the ability to identify relationships between modalities. To address these challenges, we propose an innovative multimodal approach for predicting MCI conversion, focusing specifically on the issues of missing positron emission tomography (PET) data and integrating diverse medical information. The proposed incomplete triple-modal MCI conversion prediction network is tailored for this purpose. Through the missing modal generation module, we synthesize the missing PET data from the magnetic resonance imaging and extract features using specifically designed encoders. We also develop a channel aggregation module and a triple-modal co-attention fusion module to reduce feature redundancy and achieve effective multimodal data fusion. Furthermore, we design a loss function to handle missing modality issues and align cross-modal features. These components collectively harness multimodal data to boost network performance. Experimental results on the ADNI1 and ADNI2 datasets show that our method significantly surpasses existing unimodal and other multimodal models. Our code is available at https://github.com/justinhxy/ITFC.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia and often difficult to diagnose due to the multifactorial etiology of dementia. Recent works on neuroimaging-based computer-aided diagnosis with deep neural networks (DNNs) showed that fusing structural magnetic resonance images (sMRI) and fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) leads to improved accuracy in a study population of healthy controls and subjects with AD. However, this result conflicts with the established clinical knowledge that FDG-PET better captures AD-specific pathologies than sMRI. Therefore, we propose a framework for the systematic evaluation of multi-modal DNNs and critically re-evaluate single- and multi-modal DNNs based on FDG-PET and sMRI for binary healthy vs. AD, and three-way healthy/mild cognitive impairment/AD classification. Our experiments demonstrate that a single-modality network using FDG-PET performs better than MRI (accuracy 0.91 vs 0.87) and does not show improvement when combined. This conforms with the established clinical knowledge on AD biomarkers, but raises questions about the true benefit of multi-modal DNNs. We argue that future work on multi-modal fusion should systematically assess the contribution of individual modalities following our proposed evaluation framework. Finally, we encourage the community to go beyond healthy vs. AD classification and focus on differential diagnosis of dementia, where fusing multi-modal image information conforms with a clinical need.

Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models (p<0.05). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on clinical text understanding, they struggle with longitudinal prediction tasks such as dementia prognosis, which require reasoning over complex, non-monotonic symptom trajectories across multiple visits. Standard supervised training lacks explicit annotations for symptom evolution, while direct Reinforcement Learning (RL) is hindered by sparse binary rewards. To address this challenge, we introduce Dementia-R1, an RL-based framework for longitudinal dementia prognosis from unstructured clinical notes. Our approach adopts a Cold-Start RL strategy that pre-trains the model to predict verifiable clinical indices extracted from patient histories, enhancing the capability to reason about disease progression before determining the final clinical status. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Dementia-R1 achieves an F1 score of 77.03% on real-world unstructured clinical datasets. Notably, on the ADNI benchmark, our 7B model rivals GPT-4o, effectively capturing fluctuating cognitive trajectories. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/dementiar1-CDB5