Daily Papers

Subnational studies of aid effectiveness often rely on repeated cross-sections or nighttime lights, making it difficult to separate local treatment effects from baseline differences and potentially favoring infrastructure-heavy projects. We address these limitations by studying World Bank and Chinese development projects in Africa with a balanced panel of 2,166 DHS clusters across 35 countries from 2002 to 2013. Geocoded AidData projects are linked to satellite-imputed International Wealth Index estimates, a household-centered measure of material living standards. We compare a conventional two-way fixed effects (TWFE) event-study with the switcher--stayer estimator of de Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (dCdH), which avoids contaminated comparisons under staggered treatment timing. Pre-treatment diagnostics show that project placement is frequently selective: clusters that later receive projects often begin from weaker relative positions before treatment onset. Consequently, TWFE often implies larger post-treatment gains than the preferred staggered-treatment design supports. Under dCdH, the evidence becomes more selective and sector-specific. For the World Bank, positive evidence is strongest in Health, while Education shows positive but less cleanly identified gains. For China, Water Supply and Sanitation and Other Social Infrastructure and Services show positive associations with local wealth, although residual selection concerns remain. By contrast, Chinese Energy Generation and Supply appears strongly positive under TWFE but falls close to zero under dCdH. Overall, the results do not support a donor-wide claim that either the World Bank or China uniformly improves local wealth. Instead, estimated effects are concentrated in a limited set of donor--sector panels and depend strongly on how treatment timing, selection, and outcome measurement are handled.

Multi-turn-to-single-turn (M2S) compresses iterative red-teaming into one structured prompt, but prior work relied on a handful of manually written templates. We present X-Teaming Evolutionary M2S, an automated framework that discovers and optimizes M2S templates through language-model-guided evolution. The system pairs smart sampling from 12 sources with an LLM-as-judge inspired by StrongREJECT and records fully auditable logs. Maintaining selection pressure by setting the success threshold to theta = 0.70, we obtain five evolutionary generations, two new template families, and 44.8% overall success (103/230) on GPT-4.1. A balanced cross-model panel of 2,500 trials (judge fixed) shows that structural gains transfer but vary by target; two models score zero at the same threshold. We also find a positive coupling between prompt length and score, motivating length-aware judging. Our results demonstrate that structure-level search is a reproducible route to stronger single-turn probes and underscore the importance of threshold calibration and cross-model evaluation. Code, configurations, and artifacts are available at https://github.com/hyunjun1121/M2S-x-teaming.

We consider an online learning problem with one-sided feedback, in which the learner is able to observe the true label only for positively predicted instances. On each round, k instances arrive and receive classification outcomes according to a randomized policy deployed by the learner, whose goal is to maximize accuracy while deploying individually fair policies. We first extend the framework of Bechavod et al. (2020), which relies on the existence of a human fairness auditor for detecting fairness violations, to instead incorporate feedback from dynamically-selected panels of multiple, possibly inconsistent, auditors. We then construct an efficient reduction from our problem of online learning with one-sided feedback and a panel reporting fairness violations to the contextual combinatorial semi-bandit problem (Cesa-Bianchi & Lugosi, 2009, Gy\"{o}rgy et al., 2007). Finally, we show how to leverage the guarantees of two algorithms in the contextual combinatorial semi-bandit setting: Exp2 (Bubeck et al., 2012) and the oracle-efficient Context-Semi-Bandit-FTPL (Syrgkanis et al., 2016), to provide multi-criteria no regret guarantees simultaneously for accuracy and fairness. Our results eliminate two potential sources of bias from prior work: the "hidden outcomes" that are not available to an algorithm operating in the full information setting, and human biases that might be present in any single human auditor, but can be mitigated by selecting a well chosen panel.

Citizens' assemblies are a form of democratic innovation in which a randomly selected panel of constituents deliberates on questions of public interest. We study a novel goal for the selection of panel members: maximizing the entropy of the distribution over possible panels. We design algorithms that sample from maximum-entropy distributions, potentially subject to constraints on the individual selection probabilities. We investigate the properties of these algorithms theoretically, including in terms of their resistance to manipulation and transparency. We benchmark our algorithms on a large set of real assembly lotteries in terms of their intersectional diversity and the probability of satisfying unseen representation constraints, and we obtain favorable results on both measures. We deploy one of our algorithms on a website for citizens' assembly practitioners.

This chapter presents a calendar rebalancing approach to portfolios of stocks in the Indian stock market. Ten important sectors of the Indian economy are first selected. For each of these sectors, the top ten stocks are identified based on their free-float market capitalization values. Using the ten stocks in each sector, a sector-specific portfolio is designed. In this study, the historical stock prices are used from January 4, 2021, to September 20, 2023 (NSE Website). The portfolios are designed based on the training data from January 4, 2021 to June 30, 2022. The performances of the portfolios are tested over the period from July 1, 2022, to September 20, 2023. The calendar rebalancing approach presented in the chapter is based on a yearly rebalancing method. However, the method presented is perfectly flexible and can be adapted for weekly or monthly rebalancing. The rebalanced portfolios for the ten sectors are analyzed in detail for their performances. The performance results are not only indicative of the relative performances of the sectors over the training (i.e., in-sample) data and test (out-of-sample) data, but they also reflect the overall effectiveness of the proposed portfolio rebalancing approach.