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Feb 9

Von Mises Mixture Distributions for Molecular Conformation Generation

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 12, 2023

Leveraging Side Information for Ligand Conformation Generation using Diffusion-Based Approaches

Ligand molecule conformation generation is a critical challenge in drug discovery. Deep learning models have been developed to tackle this problem, particularly through the use of generative models in recent years. However, these models often generate conformations that lack meaningful structure and randomness due to the absence of essential side information. Examples of such side information include the chemical and geometric features of the target protein, ligand-target compound interactions, and ligand chemical properties. Without these constraints, the generated conformations may not be suitable for further selection and design of new drugs. To address this limitation, we propose a novel method for generating ligand conformations that leverage side information and incorporate flexible constraints into standard diffusion models. Drawing inspiration from the concept of message passing, we introduce ligand-target massage passing block, a mechanism that facilitates the exchange of information between target nodes and ligand nodes, thereby incorporating target node features. To capture non-covalent interactions, we introduce ligand-target compound inter and intra edges. To further improve the biological relevance of the generated conformations, we train energy models using scalar chemical features. These models guide the progress of the standard Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models, resulting in more biologically meaningful conformations. We evaluate the performance of SIDEGEN using the PDBBind-2020 dataset, comparing it against other methods. The results demonstrate improvements in both Aligned RMSD and Ligand RMSD evaluations. Specifically, our model outperforms GeoDiff (trained on PDBBind-2020) by 20% in terms of the median aligned RMSD metric.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 2, 2023

Simultaneous Modeling of Protein Conformation and Dynamics via Autoregression

Understanding protein dynamics is critical for elucidating their biological functions. The increasing availability of molecular dynamics (MD) data enables the training of deep generative models to efficiently explore the conformational space of proteins. However, existing approaches either fail to explicitly capture the temporal dependencies between conformations or do not support direct generation of time-independent samples. To address these limitations, we introduce ConfRover, an autoregressive model that simultaneously learns protein conformation and dynamics from MD trajectories, supporting both time-dependent and time-independent sampling. At the core of our model is a modular architecture comprising: (i) an encoding layer, adapted from protein folding models, that embeds protein-specific information and conformation at each time frame into a latent space; (ii) a temporal module, a sequence model that captures conformational dynamics across frames; and (iii) an SE(3) diffusion model as the structure decoder, generating conformations in continuous space. Experiments on ATLAS, a large-scale protein MD dataset of diverse structures, demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in learning conformational dynamics and supporting a wide range of downstream tasks. ConfRover is the first model to sample both protein conformations and trajectories within a single framework, offering a novel and flexible approach for learning from protein MD data.

  • 6 authors
·
May 23, 2025

Enhancing Diffusion-Based Sampling with Molecular Collective Variables

Diffusion-based samplers learn to sample complex, high-dimensional distributions using energies or log densities alone, without training data. Yet, they remain impractical for molecular sampling because they are often slower than molecular dynamics and miss thermodynamically relevant modes. Inspired by enhanced sampling, we encourage exploration by introducing a sequential bias along bespoke, information-rich, low-dimensional projections of atomic coordinates known as collective variables (CVs). We introduce a repulsive potential centered on the CVs from recent samples, which pushes future samples towards novel CV regions and effectively increases the temperature in the projected space. Our resulting method improves efficiency, mode discovery, enables the estimation of free energy differences, and retains independent sampling from the approximate Boltzmann distribution via reweighting by the bias. On standard peptide conformational sampling benchmarks, the method recovers diverse conformational states and accurate free energy profiles. We are the first to demonstrate reactive sampling using a diffusion-based sampler, capturing bond breaking and formation with universal interatomic potentials at near-first-principles accuracy. The approach resolves reactive energy landscapes at a fraction of the wall-clock time of standard sampling methods, advancing diffusion-based sampling towards practical use in molecular sciences.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 13, 2025

Transition Path Sampling with Improved Off-Policy Training of Diffusion Path Samplers

Understanding transition pathways between two meta-stable states of a molecular system is crucial to advance drug discovery and material design. However, unbiased molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are computationally infeasible because of the high energy barriers that separate these states. Although recent machine learning techniques are proposed to sample rare events, they are often limited to simple systems and rely on collective variables (CVs) derived from costly domain expertise. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that trains diffusion path samplers (DPS) to address the transition path sampling (TPS) problem without requiring CVs. We reformulate the problem as an amortized sampling from the transition path distribution by minimizing the log-variance divergence between the path distribution induced by DPS and the transition path distribution. Based on the log-variance divergence, we propose learnable control variates to reduce the variance of gradient estimators and the off-policy training objective with replay buffers and simulated annealing techniques to improve sample efficiency and diversity. We also propose a scale-based equivariant parameterization of the bias forces to ensure scalability for large systems. We extensively evaluate our approach, termed TPS-DPS, on a synthetic system, small peptide, and challenging fast-folding proteins, demonstrating that it produces more realistic and diverse transition pathways than existing baselines.

  • 5 authors
·
May 30, 2024

Learning Geometrically Disentangled Representations of Protein Folding Simulations

Massive molecular simulations of drug-target proteins have been used as a tool to understand disease mechanism and develop therapeutics. This work focuses on learning a generative neural network on a structural ensemble of a drug-target protein, e.g. SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein, obtained from computationally expensive molecular simulations. Model tasks involve characterizing the distinct structural fluctuations of the protein bound to various drug molecules, as well as efficient generation of protein conformations that can serve as an complement of a molecular simulation engine. Specifically, we present a geometric autoencoder framework to learn separate latent space encodings of the intrinsic and extrinsic geometries of the protein structure. For this purpose, the proposed Protein Geometric AutoEncoder (ProGAE) model is trained on the protein contact map and the orientation of the backbone bonds of the protein. Using ProGAE latent embeddings, we reconstruct and generate the conformational ensemble of a protein at or near the experimental resolution, while gaining better interpretability and controllability in term of protein structure generation from the learned latent space. Additionally, ProGAE models are transferable to a different state of the same protein or to a new protein of different size, where only the dense layer decoding from the latent representation needs to be retrained. Results show that our geometric learning-based method enjoys both accuracy and efficiency for generating complex structural variations, charting the path toward scalable and improved approaches for analyzing and enhancing high-cost simulations of drug-target proteins.

  • 5 authors
·
May 20, 2022

Gradual Optimization Learning for Conformational Energy Minimization

Molecular conformation optimization is crucial to computer-aided drug discovery and materials design. Traditional energy minimization techniques rely on iterative optimization methods that use molecular forces calculated by a physical simulator (oracle) as anti-gradients. However, this is a computationally expensive approach that requires many interactions with a physical simulator. One way to accelerate this procedure is to replace the physical simulator with a neural network. Despite recent progress in neural networks for molecular conformation energy prediction, such models are prone to distribution shift, leading to inaccurate energy minimization. We find that the quality of energy minimization with neural networks can be improved by providing optimization trajectories as additional training data. Still, it takes around 5 times 10^5 additional conformations to match the physical simulator's optimization quality. In this work, we present the Gradual Optimization Learning Framework (GOLF) for energy minimization with neural networks that significantly reduces the required additional data. The framework consists of an efficient data-collecting scheme and an external optimizer. The external optimizer utilizes gradients from the energy prediction model to generate optimization trajectories, and the data-collecting scheme selects additional training data to be processed by the physical simulator. Our results demonstrate that the neural network trained with GOLF performs on par with the oracle on a benchmark of diverse drug-like molecules using 50x less additional data.

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 5, 2023

Learning Over Molecular Conformer Ensembles: Datasets and Benchmarks

Molecular Representation Learning (MRL) has proven impactful in numerous biochemical applications such as drug discovery and enzyme design. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are effective at learning molecular representations from a 2D molecular graph or a single 3D structure, existing works often overlook the flexible nature of molecules, which continuously interconvert across conformations via chemical bond rotations and minor vibrational perturbations. To better account for molecular flexibility, some recent works formulate MRL as an ensemble learning problem, focusing on explicitly learning from a set of conformer structures. However, most of these studies have limited datasets, tasks, and models. In this work, we introduce the first MoleculAR Conformer Ensemble Learning (MARCEL) benchmark to thoroughly evaluate the potential of learning on conformer ensembles and suggest promising research directions. MARCEL includes four datasets covering diverse molecule- and reaction-level properties of chemically diverse molecules including organocatalysts and transition-metal catalysts, extending beyond the scope of common GNN benchmarks that are confined to drug-like molecules. In addition, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study, which benchmarks representative 1D, 2D, and 3D molecular representation learning models, along with two strategies that explicitly incorporate conformer ensembles into 3D MRL models. Our findings reveal that direct learning from an accessible conformer space can improve performance on a variety of tasks and models.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 29, 2023

Str2Str: A Score-based Framework for Zero-shot Protein Conformation Sampling

The dynamic nature of proteins is crucial for determining their biological functions and properties, for which Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations stand as predominant tools to study such phenomena. By utilizing empirically derived force fields, MC or MD simulations explore the conformational space through numerically evolving the system via Markov chain or Newtonian mechanics. However, the high-energy barrier of the force fields can hamper the exploration of both methods by the rare event, resulting in inadequately sampled ensemble without exhaustive running. Existing learning-based approaches perform direct sampling yet heavily rely on target-specific simulation data for training, which suffers from high data acquisition cost and poor generalizability. Inspired by simulated annealing, we propose Str2Str, a novel structure-to-structure translation framework capable of zero-shot conformation sampling with roto-translation equivariant property. Our method leverages an amortized denoising score matching objective trained on general crystal structures and has no reliance on simulation data during both training and inference. Experimental results across several benchmarking protein systems demonstrate that Str2Str outperforms previous state-of-the-art generative structure prediction models and can be orders of magnitude faster compared to long MD simulations. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/lujiarui/Str2Str

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 5, 2023

A Benchmark for Quantum Chemistry Relaxations via Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Computational quantum chemistry plays a critical role in drug discovery, chemical synthesis, and materials science. While first-principles methods, such as density functional theory (DFT), provide high accuracy in modeling electronic structures and predicting molecular properties, they are computationally expensive. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as promising surrogate models that aim to achieve DFT-level accuracy while enabling efficient large-scale atomistic simulations. The development of accurate and transferable MLIPs requires large-scale, high-quality datasets with both energy and force labels. Critically, MLIPs must generalize not only to stable geometries but also to intermediate, non-equilibrium conformations encountered during atomistic simulations. In this work, we introduce PubChemQCR, a large-scale dataset of molecular relaxation trajectories curated from the raw geometry optimization outputs of the PubChemQC project. PubChemQCR is the largest publicly available dataset of DFT-based relaxation trajectories for small organic molecules, comprising approximately 3.5 million trajectories and over 300 million molecular conformations computed at various levels of theory. Each conformation is labeled with both total energy and atomic forces, making the dataset suitable for training and evaluating MLIPs. To provide baselines for future developments, we benchmark nine representative MLIP models on the dataset. Our resources are publicly available at https://huggingface.co/divelab

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 28, 2025

Amortized Sampling with Transferable Normalizing Flows

Efficient equilibrium sampling of molecular conformations remains a core challenge in computational chemistry and statistical inference. Classical approaches such as molecular dynamics or Markov chain Monte Carlo inherently lack amortization; the computational cost of sampling must be paid in-full for each system of interest. The widespread success of generative models has inspired interest into overcoming this limitation through learning sampling algorithms. Despite performing on par with conventional methods when trained on a single system, learned samplers have so far demonstrated limited ability to transfer across systems. We prove that deep learning enables the design of scalable and transferable samplers by introducing Prose, a 280 million parameter all-atom transferable normalizing flow trained on a corpus of peptide molecular dynamics trajectories up to 8 residues in length. Prose draws zero-shot uncorrelated proposal samples for arbitrary peptide systems, achieving the previously intractable transferability across sequence length, whilst retaining the efficient likelihood evaluation of normalizing flows. Through extensive empirical evaluation we demonstrate the efficacy of Prose as a proposal for a variety of sampling algorithms, finding a simple importance sampling-based finetuning procedure to achieve superior performance to established methods such as sequential Monte Carlo on unseen tetrapeptides. We open-source the Prose codebase, model weights, and training dataset, to further stimulate research into amortized sampling methods and finetuning objectives.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 25, 2025

Protein Autoregressive Modeling via Multiscale Structure Generation

We present protein autoregressive modeling (PAR), the first multi-scale autoregressive framework for protein backbone generation via coarse-to-fine next-scale prediction. Using the hierarchical nature of proteins, PAR generates structures that mimic sculpting a statue, forming a coarse topology and refining structural details over scales. To achieve this, PAR consists of three key components: (i) multi-scale downsampling operations that represent protein structures across multiple scales during training; (ii) an autoregressive transformer that encodes multi-scale information and produces conditional embeddings to guide structure generation; (iii) a flow-based backbone decoder that generates backbone atoms conditioned on these embeddings. Moreover, autoregressive models suffer from exposure bias, caused by the training and the generation procedure mismatch, and substantially degrades structure generation quality. We effectively alleviate this issue by adopting noisy context learning and scheduled sampling, enabling robust backbone generation. Notably, PAR exhibits strong zero-shot generalization, supporting flexible human-prompted conditional generation and motif scaffolding without requiring fine-tuning. On the unconditional generation benchmark, PAR effectively learns protein distributions and produces backbones of high design quality, and exhibits favorable scaling behavior. Together, these properties establish PAR as a promising framework for protein structure generation.

FABind: Fast and Accurate Protein-Ligand Binding

Modeling the interaction between proteins and ligands and accurately predicting their binding structures is a critical yet challenging task in drug discovery. Recent advancements in deep learning have shown promise in addressing this challenge, with sampling-based and regression-based methods emerging as two prominent approaches. However, these methods have notable limitations. Sampling-based methods often suffer from low efficiency due to the need for generating multiple candidate structures for selection. On the other hand, regression-based methods offer fast predictions but may experience decreased accuracy. Additionally, the variation in protein sizes often requires external modules for selecting suitable binding pockets, further impacting efficiency. In this work, we propose FABind, an end-to-end model that combines pocket prediction and docking to achieve accurate and fast protein-ligand binding. FABind incorporates a unique ligand-informed pocket prediction module, which is also leveraged for docking pose estimation. The model further enhances the docking process by incrementally integrating the predicted pocket to optimize protein-ligand binding, reducing discrepancies between training and inference. Through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, our proposed FABind demonstrates strong advantages in terms of effectiveness and efficiency compared to existing methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/QizhiPei/FABind

  • 10 authors
·
Oct 10, 2023

The Devil in the Details: Emergent Misalignment, Format and Coherence in Open-Weights LLMs

Prior work has shown that fine-tuning models on a narrow domain with misaligned data can lead to broad misalignment - a phenomenon termed "emergent misalignment" (Betley et al. 2025). While all tested models were susceptible to emergent misalignment, some models showed more resistance than others. Specifically the Qwen-2.5 family proved to be relatively resistant, while GPT-4o exhibited the strongest misalignment. In this paper we evaluate if current-generation open-weights models exhibit similar resistance to the Qwen-2.5 family and measure misalignment robustness over a range of model architectures and scales. We replicate the effect across nine modern open-weights models (Gemma 3 and Qwen 3 families, 1B-32B parameters). Models fine-tuned on insecure code generation show a 0.68% misalignment rate (compared to 0.07% for base models), matching the lower end of prior open-model results but dramatically lower than GPT-4o's 20%. We identify a critical format-dependent vulnerability: requiring JSON output doubles misalignment rates compared to natural language prompts (0.96% vs 0.42%). This suggests that structural constraints may bypass safety training by reducing the model's 'degrees of freedom' to refuse. These findings confirm emergent misalignment as a reproducible phenomenon in modern open-weights models, with rates substantially lower than observed in proprietary systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 25, 2025

Scalable Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Network Potentials: Promise and Pitfalls

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 15, 2022

Tranception: protein fitness prediction with autoregressive transformers and inference-time retrieval

The ability to accurately model the fitness landscape of protein sequences is critical to a wide range of applications, from quantifying the effects of human variants on disease likelihood, to predicting immune-escape mutations in viruses and designing novel biotherapeutic proteins. Deep generative models of protein sequences trained on multiple sequence alignments have been the most successful approaches so far to address these tasks. The performance of these methods is however contingent on the availability of sufficiently deep and diverse alignments for reliable training. Their potential scope is thus limited by the fact many protein families are hard, if not impossible, to align. Large language models trained on massive quantities of non-aligned protein sequences from diverse families address these problems and show potential to eventually bridge the performance gap. We introduce Tranception, a novel transformer architecture leveraging autoregressive predictions and retrieval of homologous sequences at inference to achieve state-of-the-art fitness prediction performance. Given its markedly higher performance on multiple mutants, robustness to shallow alignments and ability to score indels, our approach offers significant gain of scope over existing approaches. To enable more rigorous model testing across a broader range of protein families, we develop ProteinGym -- an extensive set of multiplexed assays of variant effects, substantially increasing both the number and diversity of assays compared to existing benchmarks.

  • 7 authors
·
May 27, 2022

Bayesian active learning for optimization and uncertainty quantification in protein docking

Motivation: Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is no docking method available for rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) of its solution quality (e.g. interface RMSD or iRMSD). Results: We introduce a novel algorithm, Bayesian Active Learning (BAL), for optimization and UQ of such black-box functions and flexible protein docking. BAL directly models the posterior distribution of the global optimum (or native structures for protein docking) with active sampling and posterior estimation iteratively feeding each other. Furthermore, we use complex normal modes to represent a homogeneous Euclidean conformation space suitable for high-dimension optimization and construct funnel-like energy models for encounter complexes. Over a protein docking benchmark set and a CAPRI set including homology docking, we establish that BAL significantly improve against both starting points by rigid docking and refinements by particle swarm optimization, providing for one third targets a top-3 near-native prediction. BAL also generates tight confidence intervals with half range around 25% of iRMSD and confidence level at 85%. Its estimated probability of a prediction being native or not achieves binary classification AUROC at 0.93 and AUPRC over 0.60 (compared to 0.14 by chance); and also found to help ranking predictions. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first uncertainty quantification solution for protein docking, with theoretical rigor and comprehensive assessment. Source codes are available at https://github.com/Shen-Lab/BAL.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 31, 2019

Protein Folding Neural Networks Are Not Robust

Deep neural networks such as AlphaFold and RoseTTAFold predict remarkably accurate structures of proteins compared to other algorithmic approaches. It is known that biologically small perturbations in the protein sequence do not lead to drastic changes in the protein structure. In this paper, we demonstrate that RoseTTAFold does not exhibit such a robustness despite its high accuracy, and biologically small perturbations for some input sequences result in radically different predicted protein structures. This raises the challenge of detecting when these predicted protein structures cannot be trusted. We define the robustness measure for the predicted structure of a protein sequence to be the inverse of the root-mean-square distance (RMSD) in the predicted structure and the structure of its adversarially perturbed sequence. We use adversarial attack methods to create adversarial protein sequences, and show that the RMSD in the predicted protein structure ranges from 0.119A to 34.162A when the adversarial perturbations are bounded by 20 units in the BLOSUM62 distance. This demonstrates very high variance in the robustness measure of the predicted structures. We show that the magnitude of the correlation (0.917) between our robustness measure and the RMSD between the predicted structure and the ground truth is high, that is, the predictions with low robustness measure cannot be trusted. This is the first paper demonstrating the susceptibility of RoseTTAFold to adversarial attacks.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 9, 2021

Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimization

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 26, 2024

Consistent Sampling and Simulation: Molecular Dynamics with Energy-Based Diffusion Models

In recent years, diffusion models trained on equilibrium molecular distributions have proven effective for sampling biomolecules. Beyond direct sampling, the score of such a model can also be used to derive the forces that act on molecular systems. However, while classical diffusion sampling usually recovers the training distribution, the corresponding energy-based interpretation of the learned score is often inconsistent with this distribution, even for low-dimensional toy systems. We trace this inconsistency to inaccuracies of the learned score at very small diffusion timesteps, where the model must capture the correct evolution of the data distribution. In this regime, diffusion models fail to satisfy the Fokker--Planck equation, which governs the evolution of the score. We interpret this deviation as one source of the observed inconsistencies and propose an energy-based diffusion model with a Fokker--Planck-derived regularization term to enforce consistency. We demonstrate our approach by sampling and simulating multiple biomolecular systems, including fast-folding proteins, and by introducing a state-of-the-art transferable Boltzmann emulator for dipeptides that supports simulation and achieves improved consistency and efficient sampling. Our code, model weights, and self-contained JAX and PyTorch notebooks are available at https://github.com/noegroup/ScoreMD.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 20, 2025

PFGM++: Unlocking the Potential of Physics-Inspired Generative Models

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 8, 2023

Learning Inter-Atomic Potentials without Explicit Equivariance

Accurate and scalable machine-learned inter-atomic potentials (MLIPs) are essential for molecular simulations ranging from drug discovery to new material design. Current state-of-the-art models enforce roto-translational symmetries through equivariant neural network architectures, a hard-wired inductive bias that can often lead to reduced flexibility, computational efficiency, and scalability. In this work, we introduce TransIP: Transformer-based Inter-Atomic Potentials, a novel training paradigm for interatomic potentials achieving symmetry compliance without explicit architectural constraints. Our approach guides a generic non-equivariant Transformer-based model to learn SO(3)-equivariance by optimizing its representations in the embedding space. Trained on the recent Open Molecules (OMol25) collection, a large and diverse molecular dataset built specifically for MLIPs and covering different types of molecules (including small organics, biomolecular fragments, and electrolyte-like species), TransIP attains comparable performance in machine-learning force fields versus state-of-the-art equivariant baselines. Further, compared to a data augmentation baseline, TransIP achieves 40% to 60% improvement in performance across varying OMol25 dataset sizes. More broadly, our work shows that learned equivariance can be a powerful and efficient alternative to equivariant or augmentation-based MLIP models.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 25, 2025

Reprogramming Pretrained Language Models for Antibody Sequence Infilling

Antibodies comprise the most versatile class of binding molecules, with numerous applications in biomedicine. Computational design of antibodies involves generating novel and diverse sequences, while maintaining structural consistency. Unique to antibodies, designing the complementarity-determining region (CDR), which determines the antigen binding affinity and specificity, creates its own unique challenges. Recent deep learning models have shown impressive results, however the limited number of known antibody sequence/structure pairs frequently leads to degraded performance, particularly lacking diversity in the generated sequences. In our work we address this challenge by leveraging Model Reprogramming (MR), which repurposes pretrained models on a source language to adapt to the tasks that are in a different language and have scarce data - where it may be difficult to train a high-performing model from scratch or effectively fine-tune an existing pre-trained model on the specific task. Specifically, we introduce ReprogBert in which a pretrained English language model is repurposed for protein sequence infilling - thus considers cross-language adaptation using less data. Results on antibody design benchmarks show that our model on low-resourced antibody sequence dataset provides highly diverse CDR sequences, up to more than a two-fold increase of diversity over the baselines, without losing structural integrity and naturalness. The generated sequences also demonstrate enhanced antigen binding specificity and virus neutralization ability. Code is available at https://github.com/IBM/ReprogBERT

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 5, 2022

DISPROTBENCH: A Disorder-Aware, Task-Rich Benchmark for Evaluating Protein Structure Prediction in Realistic Biological Contexts

Recent advances in protein structure prediction have achieved near-atomic accuracy for well-folded proteins. However, current benchmarks inadequately assess model performance in biologically challenging contexts, especially those involving intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs), limiting their utility in applications such as drug discovery, disease variant interpretation, and protein interface design. We introduce DisProtBench, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating protein structure prediction models (PSPMs) under structural disorder and complex biological conditions. DisProtBench spans three key axes: (1) Data complexity, covering disordered regions, G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) ligand pairs, and multimeric complexes; (2) Task diversity, benchmarking twelve leading PSPMs across structure-based tasks with unified classification, regression, and interface metrics; and (3) Interpretability, via the DisProtBench Portal, which provides precomputed 3D structures and visual error analyses. Our results reveal significant variability in model robustness under disorder, with low-confidence regions linked to functional prediction failures. Notably, global accuracy metrics often fail to predict task performance in disordered settings, emphasizing the need for function-aware evaluation. DisProtBench establishes a reproducible, extensible, and biologically grounded framework for assessing next-generation PSPMs in realistic biomedical scenarios.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 18, 2025

4D Diffusion for Dynamic Protein Structure Prediction with Reference Guided Motion Alignment

Protein structure prediction is pivotal for understanding the structure-function relationship of proteins, advancing biological research, and facilitating pharmaceutical development and experimental design. While deep learning methods and the expanded availability of experimental 3D protein structures have accelerated structure prediction, the dynamic nature of protein structures has received limited attention. This study introduces an innovative 4D diffusion model incorporating molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data to learn dynamic protein structures. Our approach is distinguished by the following components: (1) a unified diffusion model capable of generating dynamic protein structures, including both the backbone and side chains, utilizing atomic grouping and side-chain dihedral angle predictions; (2) a reference network that enhances structural consistency by integrating the latent embeddings of the initial 3D protein structures; and (3) a motion alignment module aimed at improving temporal structural coherence across multiple time steps. To our knowledge, this is the first diffusion-based model aimed at predicting protein trajectories across multiple time steps simultaneously. Validation on benchmark datasets demonstrates that our model exhibits high accuracy in predicting dynamic 3D structures of proteins containing up to 256 amino acids over 32 time steps, effectively capturing both local flexibility in stable states and significant conformational changes.

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 22, 2024

Adaptive Pruning for Increased Robustness and Reduced Computational Overhead in Gaussian Process Accelerated Saddle Point Searches

Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a strategy for accelerating saddle point searches on high-dimensional energy surfaces by reducing the number of times the energy and its derivatives with respect to atomic coordinates need to be evaluated. The computational overhead in the hyperparameter optimization can, however, be large and make the approach inefficient. Failures can also occur if the search ventures too far into regions that are not represented well enough by the GP model. Here, these challenges are resolved by using geometry-aware optimal transport measures and an active pruning strategy using a summation over Wasserstein-1 distances for each atom-type in farthest-point sampling, selecting a fixed-size subset of geometrically diverse configurations to avoid rapidly increasing cost of GP updates as more observations are made. Stability is enhanced by permutation-invariant metric that provides a reliable trust radius for early-stopping and a logarithmic barrier penalty for the growth of the signal variance. These physically motivated algorithmic changes prove their efficacy by reducing to less than a half the mean computational time on a set of 238 challenging configurations from a previously published data set of chemical reactions. With these improvements, the GP approach is established as, a robust and scalable algorithm for accelerating saddle point searches when the evaluation of the energy and atomic forces requires significant computational effort.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 7, 2025 2

Accurate generation of chemical reaction transition states by conditional flow matching

Transition state (TS) structures define the critical geometries and energy barriers underlying chemical reactivity, yet their fleeting nature renders them experimentally elusive and drives the reliance on costly, high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Here, we introduce TS-GEN, a conditional flow-matching generative model that maps samples from a simple Gaussian prior directly to transition-state saddle-point geometries in a single, deterministic pass. By embedding both reactant and product conformations as conditioning information, TS-GEN learns to transport latent noise to true TS structures via an optimal-transport path, effectively replacing the iterative optimization common in nudged-elastic band or string-method algorithms. TS-GEN delivers unprecedented accuracy, achieving a root-mean-square deviation of 0.004 mathring{A} (vs. 0.103 mathring{A} for prior state-of-the-art) and a mean barrier-height error of 1.019 {rm kcal/mol} (vs. 2.864 {rm kcal/mol}), while requiring only 0.06 {rm s} GPU time per inference. Over 87% of generated TSs meet chemical-accuracy criteria (<1.58 {rm kcal/mol} error), substantially outpacing existing methods. TS-GEN also exhibits strong transferability to out-of-distribution reactions from a larger database. By uniting sub-angstrom precision, sub-second speed, and broad applicability, TS-GEN will be highly useful for high-throughput exploration of complex reaction networks, paving the way to the exploration of novel chemical reaction mechanisms.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

Learning Conformal Abstention Policies for Adaptive Risk Management in Large Language and Vision-Language Models

Large Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) are increasingly used in safety-critical applications, yet their opaque decision-making complicates risk assessment and reliability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps assess prediction confidence and enables abstention when uncertainty is high. Conformal prediction (CP), a leading UQ method, provides statistical guarantees but relies on static thresholds, which fail to adapt to task complexity and evolving data distributions, leading to suboptimal trade-offs in accuracy, coverage, and informativeness. To address this, we propose learnable conformal abstention, integrating reinforcement learning (RL) with CP to optimize abstention thresholds dynamically. By treating CP thresholds as adaptive actions, our approach balances multiple objectives, minimizing prediction set size while maintaining reliable coverage. Extensive evaluations across diverse LLM/VLM benchmarks show our method outperforms Least Ambiguous Classifiers (LAC) and Adaptive Prediction Sets (APS), improving accuracy by up to 3.2%, boosting AUROC for hallucination detection by 22.19%, enhancing uncertainty-guided selective generation (AUARC) by 21.17%, and reducing calibration error by 70%-85%. These improvements hold across multiple models and datasets while consistently meeting the 90% coverage target, establishing our approach as a more effective and flexible solution for reliable decision-making in safety-critical applications. The code is available at: {https://github.com/sinatayebati/vlm-uncertainty}.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 8, 2025 2

Provably Robust Conformal Prediction with Improved Efficiency

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 30, 2024

Generating Novel, Designable, and Diverse Protein Structures by Equivariantly Diffusing Oriented Residue Clouds

Proteins power a vast array of functional processes in living cells. The capability to create new proteins with designed structures and functions would thus enable the engineering of cellular behavior and development of protein-based therapeutics and materials. Structure-based protein design aims to find structures that are designable (can be realized by a protein sequence), novel (have dissimilar geometry from natural proteins), and diverse (span a wide range of geometries). While advances in protein structure prediction have made it possible to predict structures of novel protein sequences, the combinatorially large space of sequences and structures limits the practicality of search-based methods. Generative models provide a compelling alternative, by implicitly learning the low-dimensional structure of complex data distributions. Here, we leverage recent advances in denoising diffusion probabilistic models and equivariant neural networks to develop Genie, a generative model of protein structures that performs discrete-time diffusion using a cloud of oriented reference frames in 3D space. Through in silico evaluations, we demonstrate that Genie generates protein backbones that are more designable, novel, and diverse than existing models. This indicates that Genie is capturing key aspects of the distribution of protein structure space and facilitates protein design with high success rates. Code for generating new proteins and training new versions of Genie is available at https://github.com/aqlaboratory/genie.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 29, 2023

Geometric Stability: The Missing Axis of Representations

Analysis of learned representations has a blind spot: it focuses on similarity, measuring how closely embeddings align with external references, but similarity reveals only what is represented, not whether that structure is robust. We introduce geometric stability, a distinct dimension that quantifies how reliably representational geometry holds under perturbation, and present Shesha, a framework for measuring it. Across 2,463 configurations in seven domains, we show that stability and similarity are empirically uncorrelated (ρapprox 0.01) and mechanistically distinct: similarity metrics collapse after removing the top principal components, while stability retains sensitivity to fine-grained manifold structure. This distinction yields actionable insights: for safety monitoring, stability acts as a functional geometric canary, detecting structural drift nearly 2times more sensitively than CKA while filtering out the non-functional noise that triggers false alarms in rigid distance metrics; for controllability, supervised stability predicts linear steerability (ρ= 0.89-0.96); for model selection, stability dissociates from transferability, revealing a geometric tax that transfer optimization incurs. Beyond machine learning, stability predicts CRISPR perturbation coherence and neural-behavioral coupling. By quantifying how reliably systems maintain structure, geometric stability provides a necessary complement to similarity for auditing representations across biological and computational systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 14 2

Bayesian E(3)-Equivariant Interatomic Potential with Iterative Restratification of Many-body Message Passing

Machine learning potentials (MLPs) have become essential for large-scale atomistic simulations, enabling ab initio-level accuracy with computational efficiency. However, current MLPs struggle with uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability for active learning, calibration, and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We address these challenges by developing Bayesian E(3) equivariant MLPs with iterative restratification of many-body message passing. Our approach introduces the joint energy-force negative log-likelihood (NLL_JEF) loss function, which explicitly models uncertainty in both energies and interatomic forces, yielding superior accuracy compared to conventional NLL losses. We systematically benchmark multiple Bayesian approaches, including deep ensembles with mean-variance estimation, stochastic weight averaging Gaussian, improved variational online Newton, and laplace approximation by evaluating their performance on uncertainty prediction, OOD detection, calibration, and active learning tasks. We further demonstrate that NLL_JEF facilitates efficient active learning by quantifying energy and force uncertainties. Using Bayesian active learning by disagreement (BALD), our framework outperforms random sampling and energy-uncertainty-based sampling. Our results demonstrate that Bayesian MLPs achieve competitive accuracy with state-of-the-art models while enabling uncertainty-guided active learning, OOD detection, and energy/forces calibration. This work establishes Bayesian equivariant neural networks as a powerful framework for developing uncertainty-aware MLPs for atomistic simulations at scale.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 3, 2025

ProteinBench: A Holistic Evaluation of Protein Foundation Models

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the development of protein foundation models, significantly improving performance in protein prediction and generative tasks ranging from 3D structure prediction and protein design to conformational dynamics. However, the capabilities and limitations associated with these models remain poorly understood due to the absence of a unified evaluation framework. To fill this gap, we introduce ProteinBench, a holistic evaluation framework designed to enhance the transparency of protein foundation models. Our approach consists of three key components: (i) A taxonomic classification of tasks that broadly encompass the main challenges in the protein domain, based on the relationships between different protein modalities; (ii) A multi-metric evaluation approach that assesses performance across four key dimensions: quality, novelty, diversity, and robustness; and (iii) In-depth analyses from various user objectives, providing a holistic view of model performance. Our comprehensive evaluation of protein foundation models reveals several key findings that shed light on their current capabilities and limitations. To promote transparency and facilitate further research, we release the evaluation dataset, code, and a public leaderboard publicly for further analysis and a general modular toolkit. We intend for ProteinBench to be a living benchmark for establishing a standardized, in-depth evaluation framework for protein foundation models, driving their development and application while fostering collaboration within the field.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 10, 2024 2

Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Quantitative Estimates for Performance metrics applied to Saddle Search Algorithms

Rigorous performance evaluation is essential for developing robust algorithms for high-throughput computational chemistry. Traditional benchmarking, however, often struggles to account for system-specific variability, making it difficult to form actionable conclusions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that rigorously quantifies performance metrics and their uncertainty, enabling a nuanced comparison of algorithmic strategies. We apply this framework to analyze the Dimer method, comparing Conjugate Gradient (CG) and L-BFGS rotation optimizers, with and without the removal of external rotations, across a benchmark of 500 molecular systems. Our analysis confirms that CG offers higher overall robustness than L-BFGS in this context. While the theoretically-motivated removal of external rotations led to higher computational cost (>40% more energy and force calls) for most systems in this set, our models also reveal a subtle interplay, hinting that this feature may improve the reliability of the L-BFGS optimizer. Rather than identifying a single superior method, our findings support the design of adaptive "chain of methods" workflows. This work showcases how a robust statistical paradigm can move beyond simple performance rankings to inform the intelligent, context-dependent application of computational chemistry methods.

  • 1 authors
·
May 19, 2025

Enhanced Sampling, Public Dataset and Generative Model for Drug-Protein Dissociation Dynamics

Drug-protein binding and dissociation dynamics are fundamental to understanding molecular interactions in biological systems. While many tools for drug-protein interaction studies have emerged, especially artificial intelligence (AI)-based generative models, predictive tools on binding/dissociation kinetics and dynamics are still limited. We propose a novel research paradigm that combines molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, enhanced sampling, and AI generative models to address this issue. We propose an enhanced sampling strategy to efficiently implement the drug-protein dissociation process in MD simulations and estimate the free energy surface (FES). We constructed a program pipeline of MD simulations based on this sampling strategy, thus generating a dataset including 26,612 drug-protein dissociation trajectories containing about 13 million frames. We named this dissociation dynamics dataset DD-13M and used it to train a deep equivariant generative model UnbindingFlow, which can generate collision-free dissociation trajectories. The DD-13M database and UnbindingFlow model represent a significant advancement in computational structural biology, and we anticipate its broad applicability in machine learning studies of drug-protein interactions. Our ongoing efforts focus on expanding this methodology to encompass a broader spectrum of drug-protein complexes and exploring novel applications in pathway prediction.

  • 9 authors
·
Apr 25, 2025

Customizing Spider Silk: Generative Models with Mechanical Property Conditioning for Protein Engineering

The remarkable mechanical properties of spider silk, including its tensile strength and extensibility, are primarily governed by the repetitive regions of the proteins that constitute the fiber, the major ampullate spidroins (MaSps). However, establishing correlations between mechanical characteristics and repeat sequences is challenging due to the intricate sequence-structure-function relationships of MaSps and the limited availability of annotated datasets. In this study, we present a novel computational framework for designing MaSp repeat sequences with customizable mechanical properties. To achieve this, we developed a lightweight GPT-based generative model by distilling the pre-trained ProtGPT2 protein language model. The distilled model was subjected to multilevel fine-tuning using curated subsets of the Spider Silkome dataset. Specifically, we adapt the model for MaSp repeat generation using 6,000 MaSp repeat sequences and further refine it with 572 repeats associated with experimentally determined fiber-level mechanical properties. Our model generates biologically plausible MaSp repeat regions tailored to specific mechanical properties while also predicting those properties for given sequences. Validation includes sequence-level analysis, assessing physicochemical attributes and expected distribution of key motifs as well as secondary structure compositions. A correlation study using BLAST on the Spider Silkome dataset and a test set of MaSp repeats with known mechanical properties further confirmed the predictive accuracy of the model. This framework advances the rational design of spider silk-inspired biomaterials, offering a versatile tool for engineering protein sequences with tailored mechanical attributes.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 11, 2025

ReQFlow: Rectified Quaternion Flow for Efficient and High-Quality Protein Backbone Generation

Protein backbone generation plays a central role in de novo protein design and is significant for many biological and medical applications. Although diffusion and flow-based generative models provide potential solutions to this challenging task, they often generate proteins with undesired designability and suffer computational inefficiency. In this study, we propose a novel rectified quaternion flow (ReQFlow) matching method for fast and high-quality protein backbone generation. In particular, our method generates a local translation and a 3D rotation from random noise for each residue in a protein chain, which represents each 3D rotation as a unit quaternion and constructs its flow by spherical linear interpolation (SLERP) in an exponential format. We train the model by quaternion flow (QFlow) matching with guaranteed numerical stability and rectify the QFlow model to accelerate its inference and improve the designability of generated protein backbones, leading to the proposed ReQFlow model. Experiments show that ReQFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance in protein backbone generation while requiring much fewer sampling steps and significantly less inference time (e.g., being 37x faster than RFDiffusion and 62x faster than Genie2 when generating a backbone of length 300), demonstrating its effectiveness and efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/AngxiaoYue/ReQFlow.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 20, 2025 3

Spherical convolutions on molecular graphs for protein model quality assessment

Processing information on 3D objects requires methods stable to rigid-body transformations, in particular rotations, of the input data. In image processing tasks, convolutional neural networks achieve this property using rotation-equivariant operations. However, contrary to images, graphs generally have irregular topology. This makes it challenging to define a rotation-equivariant convolution operation on these structures. In this work, we propose Spherical Graph Convolutional Network (S-GCN) that processes 3D models of proteins represented as molecular graphs. In a protein molecule, individual amino acids have common topological elements. This allows us to unambiguously associate each amino acid with a local coordinate system and construct rotation-equivariant spherical filters that operate on angular information between graph nodes. Within the framework of the protein model quality assessment problem, we demonstrate that the proposed spherical convolution method significantly improves the quality of model assessment compared to the standard message-passing approach. It is also comparable to state-of-the-art methods, as we demonstrate on Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP) benchmarks. The proposed technique operates only on geometric features of protein 3D models. This makes it universal and applicable to any other geometric-learning task where the graph structure allows constructing local coordinate systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 16, 2020

Understanding and Mitigating Distribution Shifts For Machine Learning Force Fields

Machine Learning Force Fields (MLFFs) are a promising alternative to expensive ab initio quantum mechanical molecular simulations. Given the diversity of chemical spaces that are of interest and the cost of generating new data, it is important to understand how MLFFs generalize beyond their training distributions. In order to characterize and better understand distribution shifts in MLFFs, we conduct diagnostic experiments on chemical datasets, revealing common shifts that pose significant challenges, even for large foundation models trained on extensive data. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that current supervised training methods inadequately regularize MLFFs, resulting in overfitting and learning poor representations of out-of-distribution systems. We then propose two new methods as initial steps for mitigating distribution shifts for MLFFs. Our methods focus on test-time refinement strategies that incur minimal computational cost and do not use expensive ab initio reference labels. The first strategy, based on spectral graph theory, modifies the edges of test graphs to align with graph structures seen during training. Our second strategy improves representations for out-of-distribution systems at test-time by taking gradient steps using an auxiliary objective, such as a cheap physical prior. Our test-time refinement strategies significantly reduce errors on out-of-distribution systems, suggesting that MLFFs are capable of and can move towards modeling diverse chemical spaces, but are not being effectively trained to do so. Our experiments establish clear benchmarks for evaluating the generalization capabilities of the next generation of MLFFs. Our code is available at https://tkreiman.github.io/projects/mlff_distribution_shifts/.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 11, 2025 3

Segmentation variability and radiomics stability for predicting Triple-Negative Breast Cancer subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

  • 7 authors
·
Apr 2, 2025