Daily Papers

Tau leptons serve as an important tool for studying the production of Higgs and electroweak bosons, both within and beyond the Standard Model of particle physics. Accurate reconstruction and identification of hadronically decaying tau leptons is a crucial task for current and future high energy physics experiments. Given the advances in jet tagging, we demonstrate how tau lepton reconstruction can be decomposed into tau identification, kinematic reconstruction, and decay mode classification in a multi-task machine learning setup. Based on an electron-positron collision dataset with full detector simulation and reconstruction, we show that common jet tagging architectures can be effectively used for these sub-tasks. We achieve comparable momentum resolutions of 2-3% with all the tested models, while the precision of reconstructing individual decay modes is between 80-95%. We find ParticleTransformer to be the best-performing approach, significantly outperforming the heuristic baseline. This paper also serves as an introduction to a new publicly available Fuτure dataset for the development of tau reconstruction algorithms. This allows to further study the resilience of ML models to domain shifts and the efficient use of foundation models for such tasks.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

Recent advances in learning rate (LR) scheduling have demonstrated the effectiveness of decay-free approaches that eliminate the traditional decay phase while maintaining competitive performance. Model merging techniques have emerged as particularly promising solutions in this domain. We present Warmup-Stable and Merge (WSM), a general framework that establishes a formal connection between learning rate decay and model merging. WSM provides a unified theoretical foundation for emulating various decay strategies-including cosine decay, linear decay and inverse square root decay-as principled model averaging schemes, while remaining fully compatible with diverse optimization methods. Through extensive experiments, we identify merge duration-the training window for checkpoint aggregation-as the most critical factor influencing model performance, surpassing the importance of both checkpoint interval and merge quantity. Our framework consistently outperforms the widely-adopted Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) approach across multiple benchmarks, achieving significant improvements of +3.5% on MATH, +2.9% on HumanEval, and +5.5% on MMLU-Pro. The performance advantages extend to supervised fine-tuning scenarios, highlighting WSM's potential for long-term model refinement.

As neural networks grow in scale, their training becomes both computationally demanding and rich in dynamics. Amidst the flourishing interest in these training dynamics, we present a novel observation: Parameters during training exhibit intrinsic correlations over time. Capitalizing on this, we introduce Correlation Mode Decomposition (CMD). This algorithm clusters the parameter space into groups, termed modes, that display synchronized behavior across epochs. This enables CMD to efficiently represent the training dynamics of complex networks, like ResNets and Transformers, using only a few modes. Moreover, test set generalization is enhanced. We introduce an efficient CMD variant, designed to run concurrently with training. Our experiments indicate that CMD surpasses the state-of-the-art method for compactly modeled dynamics on image classification. Our modeling can improve training efficiency and lower communication overhead, as shown by our preliminary experiments in the context of federated learning.

We explore the use of topological data analysis (TDA) combined with machine learning for discriminating standard model backgrounds from the invisible decay of the Z^prime boson associated with monophoton emission at a 3 TeV muon collider. Reconstructed events are mapped into a six-dimensional kinematic space and aggregated into bags of events, from which persistent homology is used to extract Betti number distributions. Within the Multiple Instance Learning paradigm, classifiers trained on these topological descriptors demonstrate significantly improved classification accuracy compared to the conventional ML approaches based on event-wise kinematic inputs. We also draw exclusion contours at 95\% CL in the (m_{Z^prime}, m_chi) parameter space, highlighting the potential of topological features to extend the discovery reach of future collider experiments.

In this work, we study the challenge of providing human-understandable descriptions for failure modes in trained image classification models. Existing works address this problem by first identifying clusters (or directions) of incorrectly classified samples in a latent space and then aiming to provide human-understandable text descriptions for them. We observe that in some cases, describing text does not match well with identified failure modes, partially owing to the fact that shared interpretable attributes of failure modes may not be captured using clustering in the feature space. To improve on these shortcomings, we propose a novel approach that prioritizes interpretability in this problem: we start by obtaining human-understandable concepts (tags) of images in the dataset and then analyze the model's behavior based on the presence or absence of combinations of these tags. Our method also ensures that the tags describing a failure mode form a minimal set, avoiding redundant and noisy descriptions. Through several experiments on different datasets, we show that our method successfully identifies failure modes and generates high-quality text descriptions associated with them. These results highlight the importance of prioritizing interpretability in understanding model failures.

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

While machine-learned models are now routinely employed to facilitate astronomical inquiry, model inputs tend to be limited to a primary data source (namely images or time series) and, in the more advanced approaches, some metadata. Yet with the growing use of wide-field, multiplexed observational resources, individual sources of interest often have a broad range of observational modes available. Here we construct an astronomical multimodal dataset and propose AstroM^3, a self-supervised pre-training approach that enables a model to learn from multiple modalities simultaneously. Specifically, we extend the CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model to a trimodal setting, allowing the integration of time-series photometry data, spectra, and astrophysical metadata. In a fine-tuning supervised setting, our results demonstrate that CLIP pre-training improves classification performance for time-series photometry, where accuracy increases from 84.6% to 91.5%. Furthermore, CLIP boosts classification accuracy by up to 12.6% when the availability of labeled data is limited, showing the effectiveness of leveraging larger corpora of unlabeled data. In addition to fine-tuned classification, we can use the trained model in other downstream tasks that are not explicitly contemplated during the construction of the self-supervised model. In particular we show the efficacy of using the learned embeddings for misclassifications identification, similarity search, and anomaly detection. One surprising highlight is the "rediscovery" of Mira subtypes and two Rotational variable subclasses using manifold learning and dimension reduction algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first construction of an n>2 mode model in astronomy. Extensions to n>3 modes is naturally anticipated with this approach.

Identifying and reconstructing hadronic τ decays (τ_{h}) is an important task at current and future high-energy physics experiments, as τ_{h} represent an important tool to analyze the production of Higgs and electroweak bosons as well as to search for physics beyond the Standard Model. The identification of τ_{h} can be viewed as a generalization and extension of jet-flavour tagging, which has in the recent years undergone significant progress due to the use of deep learning. Based on a granular simulation with realistic detector effects and a particle flow-based event reconstruction, we show in this paper that deep learning-based jet-flavour-tagging algorithms are powerful τ_{h} identifiers. Specifically, we show that jet-flavour-tagging algorithms such as LorentzNet and ParticleTransformer can be adapted in an end-to-end fashion for discriminating τ_{h} from quark and gluon jets. We find that the end-to-end transformer-based approach significantly outperforms contemporary state-of-the-art τ_{h} reconstruction and identification algorithms currently in use at the Large Hadron Collider.

The pattern of individual mode frequencies in solar-like oscillators provides valuable insight into their properties and interior structures. The identification and characterisation of these modes requires high signal-to-noise and frequency resolution. The KEYSTONE project unlocks the asteroseismic potential of the K2 mission by providing individually reduced, high-quality time series data, global asteroseismic parameters, and spectroscopic analysis for 173 solar-like oscillators. In this work, we build on the KEYSTONE project and present the first analysis of the pattern of individual modes in the oscillation spectra for the K2 KEYSTONE stars. We perform a robust identification and characterisation of the modes through peakbagging methods in the open-source analysis tool PBjam. We present over 6000 mode frequencies, widths, and heights for 168 stars in the sample, covering the HR diagram from FGK dwarfs to sub-giants and the lower red giant branch, providing a significant increase in the number of individual mode frequency detections for main sequence and sub-giant oscillators. This study also presents sample-wide trends of oscillation patterns as a function of the fundamental stellar properties, and improves the precision of the global asteroseismic parameters. These measurements are part of the legacy of the K2 mission, and can be used to perform detailed modelling to improve the precision of fundamental properties of these stars. The results of this analysis provides evidence for the validity of using PBjam to identify and characterise the modes resulting from the observations of the future PLATO mission.

We introduce Cautious Weight Decay (CWD), a one-line, optimizer-agnostic modification that applies weight decay only to parameter coordinates whose signs align with the optimizer update. Unlike standard decoupled decay, which implicitly optimizes a regularized or constrained objective, CWD preserves the original loss and admits a bilevel interpretation: it induces sliding-mode behavior upon reaching the stationary manifold, allowing it to search for locally Pareto-optimal stationary points of the unmodified objective. In practice, CWD is a drop-in change for optimizers such as AdamW, Lion, and Muon, requiring no new hyperparameters or additional tuning. For language model pre-training and ImageNet classification, CWD consistently improves final loss and accuracy at million- to billion-parameter scales.

We present a technique for translating a black-box machine-learned classifier operating on a high-dimensional input space into a small set of human-interpretable observables that can be combined to make the same classification decisions. We iteratively select these observables from a large space of high-level discriminants by finding those with the highest decision similarity relative to the black box, quantified via a metric we introduce that evaluates the relative ordering of pairs of inputs. Successive iterations focus only on the subset of input pairs that are misordered by the current set of observables. This method enables simplification of the machine-learning strategy, interpretation of the results in terms of well-understood physical concepts, validation of the physical model, and the potential for new insights into the nature of the problem itself. As a demonstration, we apply our approach to the benchmark task of jet classification in collider physics, where a convolutional neural network acting on calorimeter jet images outperforms a set of six well-known jet substructure observables. Our method maps the convolutional neural network into a set of observables called energy flow polynomials, and it closes the performance gap by identifying a class of observables with an interesting physical interpretation that has been previously overlooked in the jet substructure literature.

Continuous cellular automata are rocketing in popularity, yet developing a theoretical understanding of their behaviour remains a challenge. In the case of Lenia, a few fundamental open problems include determining what exactly constitutes a soliton, what is the overall structure of the parameter space, and where do the solitons occur in it. In this abstract, we present a new method to automatically classify Lenia systems into four qualitatively different dynamical classes. This allows us to detect moving solitons, and to provide an interactive visualization of Lenia's parameter space structure on our website https://lenia-explorer.vercel.app/. The results shed new light on the above-mentioned questions and lead to several observations: the existence of new soliton families for parameters where they were not believed to exist, or the universality of the phase space structure across various kernels.

Weight decay is a broadly used technique for training state-of-the-art deep networks from image classification to large language models. Despite its widespread usage and being extensively studied in the classical literature, its role remains poorly understood for deep learning. In this work, we highlight that the role of weight decay in modern deep learning is different from its regularization effect studied in classical learning theory. For deep networks on vision tasks trained with multipass SGD, we show how weight decay modifies the optimization dynamics enhancing the ever-present implicit regularization of SGD via the loss stabilization mechanism. In contrast, for large language models trained with nearly one-epoch training, we describe how weight decay balances the bias-variance tradeoff in stochastic optimization leading to lower training loss and improved training stability. Overall, we present a unifying perspective from ResNets on vision tasks to LLMs: weight decay is never useful as an explicit regularizer but instead changes the training dynamics in a desirable way. The code is available at https://github.com/tml-epfl/why-weight-decay

Time-domain surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) have opened a new frontier in the discovery and characterization of transients. While photometric light curves provide broad temporal coverage, spectroscopic observations remain crucial for physical interpretation and source classification. However, existing spectral analysis methods -- often reliant on template fitting or parametric models -- are limited in their ability to capture the complex and evolving spectra characteristic of such sources, which are sometimes only available at low resolution. In this work, we introduce SpectraNet, a deep convolutional neural network designed to learn robust representations of optical spectra from transients. Our model combines multi-scale convolution kernels and multi-scale pooling to extract features from preprocessed spectra in a hierarchical and interpretable manner. We train and validate SpectraNet on low-resolution time-series spectra obtained from the Spectral Energy Distribution Machine (SEDM) and other instruments, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in classification. Furthermore, in redshift prediction tasks, SpectraNet achieves a root mean squared relative redshift error of 0.02, highlighting its effectiveness in precise regression tasks as well.

Neutron/gamma discrimination has been intensively researched in recent years, due to its unique scientific value and widespread applications. With the advancement of detection materials and algorithms, nowadays we can achieve fairly good discrimination. However, further improvements rely on better utilization of detector raw signals, especially energy-independent pulse characteristics. We begin by discussing why figure-of-merit (FoM) is not a comprehensive criterion for high-precision neutron/gamma discriminators, and proposing a new evaluation method based on adversarial sampling. Inspired by frequency-domain analysis in existing literature, parametric linear/nonlinear models with minimum complexity are created, upon the discrete spectrum, with tunable parameters just as neural networks. We train the models on an open-source neutron/gamma dataset (CLYC crystals with silicon photomultipliers) preprocessed by charge normalization to discover and exploit energy-independent features. The performance is evaluated on different sampling rates and noise levels, in comparison with the frequency classification index and conventional methods. The frequency-domain parametric models show higher accuracy and better adaptability to variations of data integrity than other discriminators. The proposed method is also promising for online inference on economical hardware and portable devices.

This study developed a novel method for detecting hypernuclear events recorded in nuclear emulsion sheets using machine learning techniques. The artificial neural network-based object detection model was trained on surrogate images created through Monte Carlo simulations and image-style transformations using generative adversarial networks. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using alpha-decay events obtained from the J-PARC E07 emulsion data. The model achieved approximately twice the detection efficiency of conventional image processing and reduced the time spent on manual visual inspection by approximately 1/17. The established method was successfully applied to the detection of hypernuclear events. This approach is a state-of-the-art tool for discovering rare events recorded in nuclear emulsion sheets without any real data for training.

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

We study the emergence of multi-step reasoning in deep Transformer language models through a geometric and statistical-physics lens. Treating the hidden-state trajectory as a flow on an implicit Riemannian manifold, we analyze the layerwise covariance spectrum of activations, where C^{(ell)}=E[h^{(ell)}h^{(ell)top}], and track deviations from a random-matrix bulk. Across model scales (1.5B--30B), we observe a sharp reduction in effective dimensionality consistent with a phase transition: an order parameter based on sparsity/localization, Ω(h)=1-|h|_1/(d|h|_2), exhibits a discontinuity near a critical normalized depth γ_capprox 0.42 in sufficiently large models. We formalize the forward pass as a discrete coarse-graining map and relate the appearance of stable "concept basins" to fixed points of this renormalization-like dynamics. The resulting low-entropy regime is characterized by a spectral tail collapse and by the formation of transient, reusable object-like structures in representation space, which we call Transient Class Objects (TCOs). We provide theoretical conditions connecting logical separability to spectral decay and validate the predicted signatures with layerwise probes on multiple open-weight model families.

In this work we examine the classification accuracy and robustness of a state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithm applied to the morphological classification of radio galaxies. We test if SSL with fewer labels can achieve test accuracies comparable to the supervised state-of-the-art and whether this holds when incorporating previously unseen data. We find that for the radio galaxy classification problem considered, SSL provides additional regularisation and outperforms the baseline test accuracy. However, in contrast to model performance metrics reported on computer science benchmarking data-sets, we find that improvement is limited to a narrow range of label volumes, with performance falling off rapidly at low label volumes. Additionally, we show that SSL does not improve model calibration, regardless of whether classification is improved. Moreover, we find that when different underlying catalogues drawn from the same radio survey are used to provide the labelled and unlabelled data-sets required for SSL, a significant drop in classification performance is observered, highlighting the difficulty of applying SSL techniques under dataset shift. We show that a class-imbalanced unlabelled data pool negatively affects performance through prior probability shift, which we suggest may explain this performance drop, and that using the Frechet Distance between labelled and unlabelled data-sets as a measure of data-set shift can provide a prediction of model performance, but that for typical radio galaxy data-sets with labelled sample volumes of O(1000), the sample variance associated with this technique is high and the technique is in general not sufficiently robust to replace a train-test cycle.

Although deep learning has produced dazzling successes for applications of image, speech, and video processing in the past few years, most trainings are with suboptimal hyper-parameters, requiring unnecessarily long training times. Setting the hyper-parameters remains a black art that requires years of experience to acquire. This report proposes several efficient ways to set the hyper-parameters that significantly reduce training time and improves performance. Specifically, this report shows how to examine the training validation/test loss function for subtle clues of underfitting and overfitting and suggests guidelines for moving toward the optimal balance point. Then it discusses how to increase/decrease the learning rate/momentum to speed up training. Our experiments show that it is crucial to balance every manner of regularization for each dataset and architecture. Weight decay is used as a sample regularizer to show how its optimal value is tightly coupled with the learning rates and momentums. Files to help replicate the results reported here are available.

The search for heavy resonances beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is a key objective at the LHC. While the recent use of advanced deep neural networks for boosted-jet tagging significantly enhances the sensitivity of dedicated searches, it is limited to specific final states, leaving vast potential BSM phase space underexplored. We introduce a novel experimental method, Signature-Oriented Pre-training for Heavy-resonance ObservatioN (Sophon), which leverages deep learning to cover an extensive number of boosted final states. Pre-trained on the comprehensive JetClass-II dataset, the Sophon model learns intricate jet signatures, ensuring the optimal constructions of various jet tagging discriminates and enabling high-performance transfer learning capabilities. We show that the method can not only push widespread model-specific searches to their sensitivity frontier, but also greatly improve model-agnostic approaches, accelerating LHC resonance searches in a broad sense.

L_2 regularization and weight decay regularization are equivalent for standard stochastic gradient descent (when rescaled by the learning rate), but as we demonstrate this is not the case for adaptive gradient algorithms, such as Adam. While common implementations of these algorithms employ L_2 regularization (often calling it "weight decay" in what may be misleading due to the inequivalence we expose), we propose a simple modification to recover the original formulation of weight decay regularization by decoupling the weight decay from the optimization steps taken w.r.t. the loss function. We provide empirical evidence that our proposed modification (i) decouples the optimal choice of weight decay factor from the setting of the learning rate for both standard SGD and Adam and (ii) substantially improves Adam's generalization performance, allowing it to compete with SGD with momentum on image classification datasets (on which it was previously typically outperformed by the latter). Our proposed decoupled weight decay has already been adopted by many researchers, and the community has implemented it in TensorFlow and PyTorch; the complete source code for our experiments is available at https://github.com/loshchil/AdamW-and-SGDW

In the axion model, electromagnetic waves interacting with axions induce frequency-dependent time delays, determined by the axion mass and decay constant. These small delays are difficult to detect, making traditional methods ineffective. To address this, we computed time delays for various parameters and found a prominent dispersion signal when the wave frequency equals half the axion mass. Based on this, we developed a machine learning-based pipeline, achieving 95\% classification accuracy and demonstrating strong detection capability in low signal-to-noise data. Applying this to PSR J1933-6211, we found no axion-induced delays within current sensitivity limits. While existing constraints are limited by atomic clock resolution in radio telescopes, future advances in optical clocks and broader bandwidths will enable more extensive searches. In particular, combining high-precision optical clocks with next-generation radio telescopes, such as the Qitai Radio Telescope, could improve decay constant constraints by four orders of magnitude for axion masses in the 10^{-6} sim 10^{-4} eV range.

This study introduces a Masked Degradation Classification Pre-Training method (MaskDCPT), designed to facilitate the classification of degradation types in input images, leading to comprehensive image restoration pre-training. Unlike conventional pre-training methods, MaskDCPT uses the degradation type of the image as an extremely weak supervision, while simultaneously leveraging the image reconstruction to enhance performance and robustness. MaskDCPT includes an encoder and two decoders: the encoder extracts features from the masked low-quality input image. The classification decoder uses these features to identify the degradation type, whereas the reconstruction decoder aims to reconstruct a corresponding high-quality image. This design allows the pre-training to benefit from both masked image modeling and contrastive learning, resulting in a generalized representation suited for restoration tasks. Benefit from the straightforward yet potent MaskDCPT, the pre-trained encoder can be used to address universal image restoration and achieve outstanding performance. Implementing MaskDCPT significantly improves performance for both convolution neural networks (CNNs) and Transformers, with a minimum increase in PSNR of 3.77 dB in the 5D all-in-one restoration task and a 34.8% reduction in PIQE compared to baseline in real-world degradation scenarios. It also emergences strong generalization to previously unseen degradation types and levels. In addition, we curate and release the UIR-2.5M dataset, which includes 2.5 million paired restoration samples across 19 degradation types and over 200 degradation levels, incorporating both synthetic and real-world data. The dataset, source code, and models are available at https://github.com/MILab-PKU/MaskDCPT.

This work endeavors to juxtapose the efficacy of machine learning algorithms within classical and quantum computational paradigms. Particularly, by emphasizing on Support Vector Machines (SVM), we scrutinize the classification prowess of classical SVM and Quantum Support Vector Machines (QSVM) operational on quantum hardware over the Iris dataset. The methodology embraced encapsulates an extensive array of experiments orchestrated through the Qiskit library, alongside hyperparameter optimization. The findings unveil that in particular scenarios, QSVMs extend a level of accuracy that can vie with classical SVMs, albeit the execution times are presently protracted. Moreover, we underscore that augmenting quantum computational capacity and the magnitude of parallelism can markedly ameliorate the performance of quantum machine learning algorithms. This inquiry furnishes invaluable insights regarding the extant scenario and future potentiality of machine learning applications in the quantum epoch. Colab: https://t.ly/QKuz0

Machine learning and quantum computing are two technologies each with the potential for altering how computation is performed to address previously untenable problems. Kernel methods for machine learning are ubiquitous for pattern recognition, with support vector machines (SVMs) being the most well-known method for classification problems. However, there are limitations to the successful solution to such problems when the feature space becomes large, and the kernel functions become computationally expensive to estimate. A core element to computational speed-ups afforded by quantum algorithms is the exploitation of an exponentially large quantum state space through controllable entanglement and interference. Here, we propose and experimentally implement two novel methods on a superconducting processor. Both methods represent the feature space of a classification problem by a quantum state, taking advantage of the large dimensionality of quantum Hilbert space to obtain an enhanced solution. One method, the quantum variational classifier builds on [1,2] and operates through using a variational quantum circuit to classify a training set in direct analogy to conventional SVMs. In the second, a quantum kernel estimator, we estimate the kernel function and optimize the classifier directly. The two methods present a new class of tools for exploring the applications of noisy intermediate scale quantum computers [3] to machine learning.

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

We introduce a simple but effective unsupervised method for generating realistic and diverse images. We train a class-conditional GAN model without using manually annotated class labels. Instead, our model is conditional on labels automatically derived from clustering in the discriminator's feature space. Our clustering step automatically discovers diverse modes, and explicitly requires the generator to cover them. Experiments on standard mode collapse benchmarks show that our method outperforms several competing methods when addressing mode collapse. Our method also performs well on large-scale datasets such as ImageNet and Places365, improving both image diversity and standard quality metrics, compared to previous methods.

In this work we demonstrate that significant gains in performance and data efficiency can be achieved in High Energy Physics (HEP) by moving beyond the standard paradigm of sequential optimization or reconstruction and analysis components. We conceptually connect HEP reconstruction and analysis to modern machine learning workflows such as pretraining, finetuning, domain adaptation and high-dimensional embedding spaces and quantify the gains in the example usecase of searches of heavy resonances decaying via an intermediate di-Higgs system to four b-jets.

With the advent of new spectroscopic surveys from ground and space, observing up to hundreds of millions of galaxies, spectra classification will become overwhelming for standard analysis techniques. To prepare for this challenge, we introduce a family of deep learning tools to classify features in one-dimensional spectra. As the first application of these Galaxy Spectra neural Networks (GaSNets), we focus on tools specialized at identifying emission lines from strongly lensed star-forming galaxies in the eBOSS spectra. We first discuss the training and testing of these networks and define a threshold probability, PL, of 95% for the high quality event detection. Then, using a previous set of spectroscopically selected strong lenses from eBOSS, confirmed with HST, we estimate a completeness of ~80% as the fraction of lenses recovered above the adopted PL. We finally apply the GaSNets to ~1.3M spectra to collect a first list of ~430 new high quality candidates identified with deep learning applied to spectroscopy and visually graded as highly probable real events. A preliminary check against ground-based observations tentatively shows that this sample has a confirmation rate of 38%, in line with previous samples selected with standard (no deep learning) classification tools and follow-up by Hubble Space Telescope. This first test shows that machine learning can be efficiently extended to feature recognition in the wavelength space, which will be crucial for future surveys like 4MOST, DESI, Euclid, and the Chinese Space Station Telescope (CSST).

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

We investigate the stability of superconducting strings as bound states of strings and fermion zero modes at both the classical and quantum levels. The dynamics of these superconducting strings can result in a stable configuration, known as a vorton. We mainly focus on global strings, but the majority of the discussion can be applied to local strings. Using lattice simulations, we study the classical dynamics of superconducting strings and confirm that they relax to the vorton configuration through Nambu-Goldstone boson radiation, with no evidence of over-shooting that would destabilize the vorton. We explore the tunneling of fermion zero modes out of the strings. Both our classical analysis and quantum calculations yield consistent results: the maximum energy of the zero mode significantly exceeds the fermion mass, in contrast to previous literature. Additionally, we introduce a world-sheet formalism to evaluate the decay rate of zero modes into other particles, which constitute the dominant decay channel. We also identify additional processes that trigger zero-mode decay due to non-adiabatic changes of the string configuration. In these decay processes, the rates are suppressed by the curvature of string loops, with exponential suppression for large masses of the final states. We further study the scattering with light charged particles surrounding the string core produced by the zero-mode current and find that a wide zero-mode wavefunction can enhance vorton stability.

Detecting oscillations in solar and stellar time series is complicated by non-stationary red noise and evolving background emission. Methods based on detrending and AR(1)-based wavelet analysis can introduce spurious periodicities and do not adequately describe time-dependent backgrounds. We develop a Bayesian approach that combines the continuous wavelet transform with MCMC sampling to infer a time-dependent background spectrum. The background is represented by a power-law plus white-noise component, with parameters allowed to vary smoothly in time, so that significance levels can be evaluated locally without explicit detrending. Tests with synthetic data show that injected oscillations are recovered reliably, while false detections are suppressed in pure-noise cases. Using a frequency-domain signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), we find that oscillations can be identified robustly when the S/N is greater than or equal to 2 under mixed noise conditions. The detectable period range is limited by wavelet resolution, from about 3-4 sampling intervals up to roughly one-quarter of the total duration. Application to GOES soft X-ray flare observations shows that the method isolates quasi-periodic oscillations with improved temporal localization compared to standard wavelet and Fourier-based approaches. Meanwhile, this behavior is consistent across a range of noise conditions and signal morphologies.

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from measurement data, where exact inference of latent variables is typically intractable. A recently surfaced option pertains to leveraging variational inference to perform approximate inference. In such a scheme, transition and emission functions of the system are parameterized via feed-forward neural networks (deep generative models). However, due to the generalized and highly versatile formulation of neural network functions, the learned latent space often lacks physical interpretation and structured representation. To address this, we bridge physics-based state space models with Deep Markov Models, thus delivering a hybrid modeling framework for unsupervised learning and identification of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed framework takes advantage of the expressive power of deep learning, while retaining the driving physics of the dynamical system by imposing physics-driven restrictions on the side of the latent space. We demonstrate the benefits of such a fusion in terms of achieving improved performance on illustrative simulation examples and experimental case studies of nonlinear systems. Our results indicate that the physics-based models involved in the employed transition and emission functions essentially enforce a more structured and physically interpretable latent space, which is essential for enhancing and generalizing the predictive capabilities of deep learning-based models.

Orthogonalized-update optimizers such as Muon improve training of matrix-valued parameters, but existing extensions typically either rescale updates after orthogonalization or use heavier whitening-based preconditioners before it. We introduce {\method}, a lightweight family of pre-orthogonalization equilibration schemes for Muon with three forms: two-sided row/column normalization (RC), row normalization (R), and column normalization (C). By rebalancing the momentum matrix before finite-step Newton--Schulz orthogonalization, {\method} improves the geometry seen by orthogonalization. We show that finite-step orthogonalization is governed by the input spectrum, especially stable rank and condition number, and that row/column normalization acts as a zeroth-order surrogate for whitening. For hidden matrix weights, R is the default variant. Theoretically, {\method} (R) retains the standard mathcal O(T^{-1/4}) Muon-type nonconvex stationarity guarantee with decoupled weight decay and a horizon-free diminishing learning-rate schedule, and extends it to finite-step NS5 up to an explicit inexactness constant. In LLaMA2 pretraining on C4, {\method} (R) consistently outperforms Muon on 130M, 350M, and 1B models, with faster convergence and lower validation perplexity. The code is available at the https://github.com/MaeChd/muon-eq{MuonEq codebase}.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

We describe a new detector, called NuLat, to study electron anti-neutrinos a few meters from a nuclear reactor, and search for anomalous neutrino oscillations. Such oscillations could be caused by sterile neutrinos, and might explain the "Reactor Antineutrino Anomaly". NuLat, is made possible by a natural synergy between the miniTimeCube and mini-LENS programs described in this paper. It features a "Raghavan Optical Lattice" (ROL) consisting of 3375 boron or ^6Li loaded plastic scintillator cubical cells 6.3\,cm (2.500") on a side. Cell boundaries have a 0.127\,mm (0.005") air gap, resulting in total internal reflection guiding most of the light down the 3 cardinal directions. The ROL detector technology for NuLat gives excellent spatial and energy resolution and allows for in-depth event topology studies. These features allow us to discern inverse beta decay (IBD) signals and the putative oscillation pattern, even in the presence of other backgrounds. We discuss here test venues, efficiency, sensitivity and project status.

Finding the mode of a high dimensional probability distribution D is a fundamental algorithmic problem in statistics and data analysis. There has been particular interest in efficient methods for solving the problem when D is represented as a mixture model or kernel density estimate, although few algorithmic results with worst-case approximation and runtime guarantees are known. In this work, we significantly generalize a result of (LeeLiMusco:2021) on mode approximation for Gaussian mixture models. We develop randomized dimensionality reduction methods for mixtures involving a broader class of kernels, including the popular logistic, sigmoid, and generalized Gaussian kernels. As in Lee et al.'s work, our dimensionality reduction results yield quasi-polynomial algorithms for mode finding with multiplicative accuracy (1-epsilon) for any epsilon > 0. Moreover, when combined with gradient descent, they yield efficient practical heuristics for the problem. In addition to our positive results, we prove a hardness result for box kernels, showing that there is no polynomial time algorithm for finding the mode of a kernel density estimate, unless P = NP. Obtaining similar hardness results for kernels used in practice (like Gaussian or logistic kernels) is an interesting future direction.

We propose masked particle modeling (MPM) as a self-supervised method for learning generic, transferable, and reusable representations on unordered sets of inputs for use in high energy physics (HEP) scientific data. This work provides a novel scheme to perform masked modeling based pre-training to learn permutation invariant functions on sets. More generally, this work provides a step towards building large foundation models for HEP that can be generically pre-trained with self-supervised learning and later fine-tuned for a variety of down-stream tasks. In MPM, particles in a set are masked and the training objective is to recover their identity, as defined by a discretized token representation of a pre-trained vector quantized variational autoencoder. We study the efficacy of the method in samples of high energy jets at collider physics experiments, including studies on the impact of discretization, permutation invariance, and ordering. We also study the fine-tuning capability of the model, showing that it can be adapted to tasks such as supervised and weakly supervised jet classification, and that the model can transfer efficiently with small fine-tuning data sets to new classes and new data domains.

We investigate spectral features of bottomonium at high temperature, in particular the thermal mass shift and width of ground state S-wave and P-wave state. We employ and compare a range of methods for determining these features from lattice NRQCD correlators, including direct correlator analyses (multi-exponential fits and moments of spectral functions), linear methods (Backus-Gilbert, Tikhonov and HLT methods), and Bayesian methods for spectral function reconstruction (MEM and BR). We comment on the reliability and limitations of the various methods.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Effective waste sorting is critical for sustainable recycling, yet AI research in this domain continues to lag behind commercial systems due to limited datasets and reliance on legacy object detectors. In this work, we advance AI-driven waste detection by establishing strong baselines and introducing an ensemble-based semi-supervised learning framework. We first benchmark state-of-the-art Open-Vocabulary Object Detection (OVOD) models on the real-world ZeroWaste dataset, demonstrating that while class-only prompts perform poorly, LLM-optimized prompts significantly enhance zero-shot accuracy. Next, to address domain-specific limitations, we fine-tune modern transformer-based detectors, achieving a new baseline of 51.6 mAP. We then propose a soft pseudo-labeling strategy that fuses ensemble predictions using spatial and consensus-aware weighting, enabling robust semi-supervised training. Applied to the unlabeled ZeroWaste-s subset, our pseudo-annotations achieve performance gains that surpass fully supervised training, underscoring the effectiveness of scalable annotation pipelines. Our work contributes to the research community by establishing rigorous baselines, introducing a robust ensemble-based pseudo-labeling pipeline, generating high-quality annotations for the unlabeled ZeroWaste-s subset, and systematically evaluating OVOD models under real-world waste sorting conditions. Our code is available at: https://github.com/h-abid97/robust-waste-detection.

A number of recent self-supervised learning methods have shown impressive performance on image classification and other tasks. A somewhat bewildering variety of techniques have been used, not always with a clear understanding of the reasons for their benefits, especially when used in combination. Here we treat the embeddings of images as point particles and consider model optimization as a dynamic process on this system of particles. Our dynamic model combines an attractive force for similar images, a locally dispersive force to avoid local collapse, and a global dispersive force to achieve a globally-homogeneous distribution of particles. The dynamic perspective highlights the advantage of using a delayed-parameter image embedding (a la BYOL) together with multiple views of the same image. It also uses a purely-dynamic local dispersive force (Brownian motion) that shows improved performance over other methods and does not require knowledge of other particle coordinates. The method is called MSBReg which stands for (i) a Multiview centroid loss, which applies an attractive force to pull different image view embeddings toward their centroid, (ii) a Singular value loss, which pushes the particle system toward spatially homogeneous density, (iii) a Brownian diffusive loss. We evaluate downstream classification performance of MSBReg on ImageNet as well as transfer learning tasks including fine-grained classification, multi-class object classification, object detection, and instance segmentation. In addition, we also show that applying our regularization term to other methods further improves their performance and stabilize the training by preventing a mode collapse.

Recent research has repeatedly shown that machine learning techniques can be applied to either whole files or file fragments to classify them for analysis. We build upon these techniques to show that for samples of un-labeled compiled computer object code, one can apply the same type of analysis to classify important aspects of the code, such as its target architecture and endianess. We show that using simple byte-value histograms we retain enough information about the opcodes within a sample to classify the target architecture with high accuracy, and then discuss heuristic-based features that exploit information within the operands to determine endianess. We introduce a dataset with over 16000 code samples from 20 architectures and experimentally show that by using our features, classifiers can achieve very high accuracy with relatively small sample sizes.

We train a network to identify jets with fractional dark decay (semi-visible jets) using the pattern of their low-level jet constituents, and explore the nature of the information used by the network by mapping it to a space of jet substructure observables. Semi-visible jets arise from dark matter particles which decay into a mixture of dark sector (invisible) and Standard Model (visible) particles. Such objects are challenging to identify due to the complex nature of jets and the alignment of the momentum imbalance from the dark particles with the jet axis, but such jets do not yet benefit from the construction of dedicated theoretically-motivated jet substructure observables. A deep network operating on jet constituents is used as a probe of the available information and indicates that classification power not captured by current high-level observables arises primarily from low-p_T jet constituents.

Classical machine learning (ML) provides a potentially powerful approach to solving challenging quantum many-body problems in physics and chemistry. However, the advantages of ML over more traditional methods have not been firmly established. In this work, we prove that classical ML algorithms can efficiently predict ground state properties of gapped Hamiltonians in finite spatial dimensions, after learning from data obtained by measuring other Hamiltonians in the same quantum phase of matter. In contrast, under widely accepted complexity theory assumptions, classical algorithms that do not learn from data cannot achieve the same guarantee. We also prove that classical ML algorithms can efficiently classify a wide range of quantum phases of matter. Our arguments are based on the concept of a classical shadow, a succinct classical description of a many-body quantum state that can be constructed in feasible quantum experiments and be used to predict many properties of the state. Extensive numerical experiments corroborate our theoretical results in a variety of scenarios, including Rydberg atom systems, 2D random Heisenberg models, symmetry-protected topological phases, and topologically ordered phases.

Applying weight decay (WD) to matrix layers is standard practice in large-language-model pretraining. Prior work suggests that stochastic gradient noise induces a Brownian-like expansion of the weight matrices W, whose growth is counteracted by WD, leading to a WD-noise equilibrium with a certain weight norm ||W||. In this work, we view the equilibrium norm as a harmful artifact of the training procedure, and address it by introducing learnable multipliers to learn the optimal scale. First, we attach a learnable scalar multiplier to W and confirm that the WD-noise equilibrium norm is suboptimal: the learned scale adapts to data and improves performance. We then argue that individual row and column norms are similarly constrained, and free their scale by introducing learnable per-row and per-column multipliers. Our method can be viewed as a learnable, more expressive generalization of muP multipliers. It outperforms a well-tuned muP baseline, reduces the computational overhead of multiplier tuning, and surfaces practical questions such as forward-pass symmetries and the width-scaling of the learned multipliers. Finally, we validate learnable multipliers with both Adam and Muon optimizers, where it shows improvement in downstream evaluations matching the improvement of the switching from Adam to Muon.

Based on the established task of identifying boosted, hadronically decaying top quarks, we compare a wide range of modern machine learning approaches. Unlike most established methods they rely on low-level input, for instance calorimeter output. While their network architectures are vastly different, their performance is comparatively similar. In general, we find that these new approaches are extremely powerful and great fun.

Precision beta decay experiments serve as powerful probes of physics beyond the Standard Model, enabling stringent tests of fundamental symmetries of nature. In particular, these experiments primarily focus on precise determinations of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element Vud and the search for exotic weak currents, both of which depend critically on theoretical calculations of radiative, recoil-order, and isospin-breaking corrections with quantified uncertainties. In recent years, ab initio nuclear many-body methods--grounded in realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions and systematically improvable approximations--have advanced considerably in their ability to compute these higher-order corrections for various nuclei. This review provides a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art ab initio calculations of beta-decay corrections, encompassing both radiative corrections and recoil-order terms, and examines their significance for precision tests of the Standard Model. We discuss the theoretical formalisms employed, including the integration of effective field theory frameworks with many-body approaches. Particular attention is given to recent results for superallowed Fermi decays (e.g., 10C -> 10B and 14O -> 14C) and allowed Gamow-Teller transitions (e.g., 6He -> 6Li, 8Li -> 8Be, 8B -> 8Be), where ab initio calculations have achieved unprecedented precision. We also highlight emerging calculations for unique forbidden decays, which offer complementary sensitivity to BSM physics. Finally, we outline future directions aimed at extending the reach of ab initio calculations to heavier nuclei and additional decay modes, thereby strengthening the synergy between theory and experiment in the ongoing search for new physics.

We might hope that when faced with unexpected inputs, well-designed software systems would fire off warnings. Machine learning (ML) systems, however, which depend strongly on properties of their inputs (e.g. the i.i.d. assumption), tend to fail silently. This paper explores the problem of building ML systems that fail loudly, investigating methods for detecting dataset shift, identifying exemplars that most typify the shift, and quantifying shift malignancy. We focus on several datasets and various perturbations to both covariates and label distributions with varying magnitudes and fractions of data affected. Interestingly, we show that across the dataset shifts that we explore, a two-sample-testing-based approach, using pre-trained classifiers for dimensionality reduction, performs best. Moreover, we demonstrate that domain-discriminating approaches tend to be helpful for characterizing shifts qualitatively and determining if they are harmful.

We report the discovery of bimodal structure in the drift rate distribution of upward-drifting burst clusters from the hyperactive repeating fast radio burst FRB 20240114A. Using unsupervised machine learning (UMAP dimensionality reduction combined with HDBSCAN density-based clustering) applied to 233 upward-drifting burst clusters from the FAST telescope dataset, we identify a distinct subpopulation of 45 burst clusters (Cluster C1) with mean drift rates 2.5x higher than typical upward-drifting burst clusters (245.6 vs 98.1 MHz/ms). Gaussian mixture modeling reveals strong evidence for bimodality (delta-BIC = 296.6), with clearly separated modes (Ashman's D = 2.70 > 2) and a statistically significant gap in the distribution (11.3 sigma). Crucially, we demonstrate that this bimodality persists when restricting the analysis to single-component (U1) burst clusters only (delta-BIC = 19.9, Ashman's D = 2.71), confirming that the result is not an artifact of combining single- and multi-component burst clusters with different drift rate definitions. The extreme-drift subpopulation also exhibits systematically lower peak frequencies (-7%), shorter durations (-29%), and distinct clustering in multi-dimensional feature space. These findings are suggestive of two spatially separated emission regions in the magnetosphere, each producing upward-drifting burst clusters with distinct physical characteristics, although confirmation requires observations from additional epochs and sources.

While implicit regularization facilitates benign overfitting in low-noise regimes, recent theoretical work predicts a sharp phase transition to harmful overfitting as the noise-to-signal ratio increases. We experimentally isolate the geometric mechanism of this transition: the Malignant Tail, a failure mode where networks functionally segregate signal and noise, reducing coherent semantic features into low-rank subspaces while pushing stochastic label noise into high-frequency orthogonal components, distinct from systematic or corruption-aligned noise. Through a Spectral Linear Probe of training dynamics, we demonstrate that Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) fails to suppress this noise, instead implicitly biasing it toward high-frequency orthogonal subspaces, effectively preserving signal-noise separability. We show that this geometric separation is distinct from simple variance reduction in untrained models. In trained networks, SGD actively segregates noise, allowing post-hoc Explicit Spectral Truncation (d << D) to surgically prune the noise-dominated subspace. This approach recovers the optimal generalization capability latent in the converged model. Unlike unstable temporal early stopping, Geometric Truncation provides a stable post-hoc intervention. Our findings suggest that under label noise, excess spectral capacity is not harmless redundancy but a latent structural liability that allows for noise memorization, necessitating explicit rank constraints to filter stochastic corruptions for robust generalization.

This paper establishes a mathematical foundation for the Adam optimizer, elucidating its connection to natural gradient descent through Riemannian and information geometry. We rigorously analyze the diagonal empirical Fisher information matrix (FIM) in Adam, clarifying all detailed approximations and advocating for the use of log probability functions as loss, which should be based on discrete distributions, due to the limitations of empirical FIM. Our analysis uncovers flaws in the original Adam algorithm, leading to proposed corrections such as enhanced momentum calculations, adjusted bias corrections, and gradient clipping. We refine the weight decay term based on our theoretical framework. Our modified algorithm, Fisher Adam (FAdam), demonstrates superior performance across diverse domains including LLM, ASR, and VQ-VAE, achieving state-of-the-art results in ASR.

LLMs are commonly trained with a learning rate (LR) warmup, followed by cosine decay to 10% of the maximum (10x decay). In a large-scale empirical study, we show that under an optimal peak LR, a simple linear decay-to-zero (D2Z) schedule consistently outperforms other schedules when training at compute-optimal dataset sizes. D2Z is superior across a range of model sizes, batch sizes, datasets, and vocabularies. Benefits increase as dataset size increases. Leveraging a novel interpretation of AdamW as an exponential moving average of weight updates, we show how linear D2Z optimally balances the demands of early training (moving away from initial conditions) and late training (averaging over more updates in order to mitigate gradient noise). In experiments, a 610M-parameter model trained for 80 tokens-per-parameter (TPP) using D2Z achieves lower loss than when trained for 200 TPP using 10x decay, corresponding to an astonishing 60% compute savings. Models such as Llama2-7B, trained for 286 TPP with 10x decay, could likely have saved a majority of compute by training with D2Z.

Discriminative approaches to classification often learn shortcuts that hold in-distribution but fail even under minor distribution shift. This failure mode stems from an overreliance on features that are spuriously correlated with the label. We show that generative classifiers, which use class-conditional generative models, can avoid this issue by modeling all features, both core and spurious, instead of mainly spurious ones. These generative classifiers are simple to train, avoiding the need for specialized augmentations, strong regularization, extra hyperparameters, or knowledge of the specific spurious correlations to avoid. We find that diffusion-based and autoregressive generative classifiers achieve state-of-the-art performance on five standard image and text distribution shift benchmarks and reduce the impact of spurious correlations in realistic applications, such as medical or satellite datasets. Finally, we carefully analyze a Gaussian toy setting to understand the inductive biases of generative classifiers, as well as the data properties that determine when generative classifiers outperform discriminative ones.

We reinterpret the final Large Language Model (LLM) softmax classifier as an Energy-Based Model (EBM), decomposing the sequence-to-sequence probability chain into multiple interacting EBMs at inference. This principled approach allows us to track "energy spills" during decoding, which we empirically show correlate with factual errors, biases, and failures. Similar to Orgad et al. (2025), our method localizes the exact answer token and subsequently tests for hallucinations. Crucially, however, we achieve this without requiring trained probe classifiers or activation ablations. Instead, we introduce two completely training-free metrics derived directly from output logits: spilled energy, which captures the discrepancy between energy values across consecutive generation steps that should theoretically match, and marginalized energy, which is measurable at a single step. Evaluated on nine benchmarks across state-of-the-art LLMs (including LLaMA, Mistral, and Gemma) and on synthetic algebraic operations (Qwen3), our approach demonstrates robust, competitive hallucination detection and cross-task generalization. Notably, these results hold for both pretrained and instruction-tuned variants without introducing any training overhead. Code available at: github.com/OmnAI-Lab/spilled-energy

Training language models currently requires pre-determining a fixed compute budget because the typical cosine learning rate schedule depends on the total number of steps. In contrast, the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule uses a constant learning rate to produce a main branch of iterates that can in principle continue indefinitely without a pre-specified compute budget. Then, given any compute budget, one can branch out from the main branch at a proper time with a rapidly decaying learning rate to produce a strong model. Empirically, WSD generates a non-traditional loss curve: the loss remains elevated during the stable phase but sharply declines during the decay phase. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we conjecture that pretraining loss exhibits a river valley landscape, which resembles a deep valley with a river at its bottom. Under this assumption, we show that during the stable phase, the iterate undergoes large oscillations due to the high learning rate, yet it progresses swiftly along the river. During the decay phase, the rapidly dropping learning rate minimizes the iterate's oscillations, moving it closer to the river and revealing true optimization progress. Therefore, the sustained high learning rate phase and fast decaying phase are responsible for progress in the river and the mountain directions respectively, and are both critical. Our analysis predicts phenomenons consistent with empirical observations and shows that this landscape can emerge from pretraining on a simple bi-gram dataset. Inspired by the theory, we introduce WSD-S, a variant of WSD that reuses previous checkpoints' decay phases and keeps only one main branch, where we resume from a decayed checkpoint. WSD-S empirically outperforms WSD and Cyclic-Cosine in obtaining multiple language model checkpoints across various compute budgets in a single run for parameters scaling from 0.1B to 1.2B.

Semi-supervised learning based methods are current SOTA solutions to the noisy-label learning problem, which rely on learning an unsupervised label cleaner first to divide the training samples into a labeled set for clean data and an unlabeled set for noise data. Typically, the cleaner is obtained via fitting a mixture model to the distribution of per-sample training losses. However, the modeling procedure is class agnostic and assumes the loss distributions of clean and noise samples are the same across different classes. Unfortunately, in practice, such an assumption does not always hold due to the varying learning difficulty of different classes, thus leading to sub-optimal label noise partition criteria. In this work, we reveal this long-ignored problem and propose a simple yet effective solution, named Class Prototype-based label noise Cleaner (CPC). Unlike previous works treating all the classes equally, CPC fully considers loss distribution heterogeneity and applies class-aware modulation to partition the clean and noise data. CPC takes advantage of loss distribution modeling and intra-class consistency regularization in feature space simultaneously and thus can better distinguish clean and noise labels. We theoretically justify the effectiveness of our method by explaining it from the Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework. Extensive experiments are conducted on the noisy-label benchmarks CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, Clothing1M and WebVision. The results show that CPC consistently brings about performance improvement across all benchmarks. Codes and pre-trained models will be released at https://github.com/hjjpku/CPC.git.

In recent years, the community of 'explainable artificial intelligence' (XAI) has created a vast body of methods to bridge a perceived gap between model 'complexity' and 'interpretability'. However, a concrete problem to be solved by XAI methods has not yet been formally stated. As a result, XAI methods are lacking theoretical and empirical evidence for the 'correctness' of their explanations, limiting their potential use for quality-control and transparency purposes. At the same time, Haufe et al. (2014) showed, using simple toy examples, that even standard interpretations of linear models can be highly misleading. Specifically, high importance may be attributed to so-called suppressor variables lacking any statistical relation to the prediction target. This behavior has been confirmed empirically for a large array of XAI methods in Wilming et al. (2022). Here, we go one step further by deriving analytical expressions for the behavior of a variety of popular XAI methods on a simple two-dimensional binary classification problem involving Gaussian class-conditional distributions. We show that the majority of the studied approaches will attribute non-zero importance to a non-class-related suppressor feature in the presence of correlated noise. This poses important limitations on the interpretations and conclusions that the outputs of these XAI methods can afford.

Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is an equation-free method that aims at reconstructing the best linear fit from temporal datasets. In this paper, we show that DMD does not provide accurate approximation for datasets describing oscillatory dynamics, like spiral waves and relaxation oscillations, or spatio-temporal Turing instability. Inspired from the classical "divide and conquer" approach, we propose a piecewise version of DMD (pDMD) to overcome this problem. The main idea is to split the original dataset in N submatrices and then apply the exact (randomized) DMD method in each subset of the obtained partition. We describe the pDMD algorithm in detail and we introduce some error indicators to evaluate its performance when N is increased. Numerical experiments show that very accurate reconstructions are obtained by pDMD for datasets arising from time snapshots of some reaction-diffusion PDE systems, like the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, the lambda-omega system and the DIB morpho-chemical system for battery modeling.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

This paper presents measurements of W^{pm}Z production cross sections in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The data were collected in 2015 and 2016 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb^{-1}. The W^{pm}Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons and muons. The measured inclusive cross section in the detector fiducial region for a single leptonic decay mode is σ_{W^pm Z rightarrow ell^{'} νell ell}^{fid.} = 63.7 pm 1.0 (stat.) pm 2.3 (syst.) pm 1.4 (lumi.) fb, reproduced by the next-to-next-to-leading-order Standard Model prediction of 61.5^{+1.4}_{-1.3} fb. Cross sections for W^+Z and W^-Z production and their ratio are presented as well as differential cross sections for several kinematic observables. An analysis of angular distributions of leptons from decays of W and Z bosons is performed for the first time in pair-produced events in hadronic collisions, and integrated helicity fractions in the detector fiducial region are measured for the W and Z bosons separately. Of particular interest, the longitudinal helicity fraction of pair-produced vector bosons is also measured.

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM) for fault detection and prognostics of equipments based on sensors' data. It is a particular dynamic Bayesian network that allows to represent the dynamics of a system by means of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an autoregressive (AR) process. The Markov chain assumes that the system is switching back and forth between internal states while the AR process ensures a temporal coherence on sensor measurements. A sound learning procedure of standard ARHMM based on maximum likelihood allows to iteratively estimate all parameters simultaneously. This paper suggests a modification of the learning procedure considering that one may have prior knowledge about the structure which becomes partially hidden. The integration of the prior is based on the Theory of Weighted Distributions which is compatible with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm in the sense that the convergence properties are still satisfied. We show how to apply this model to estimate the remaining useful life based on health indicators. The autoregressive parameters can indeed be used for prediction while the latent structure can be used to get information about the degradation level. The interest of the proposed method for prognostics and health assessment is demonstrated on CMAPSS datasets.

Neural networks acquire structured representations at specific moments during training, yet identifying these transitions typically relies on retrospective, label-dependent metrics. We introduce a bifurcation theory of representation dynamics to detect these moments in real time. Analyzing a passive GMM probe attached to the evolving encoder, we show the onset of structure corresponds to a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation driven by the loss Hessian. The system exhibits a theoretically predictable zero-crossing (β_c) that, compared to the network's current state (β), yields a dynamic ratio β(t)/β_c(t): a universal, label-free phase coordinate for representation dynamics, computable entirely from hidden states. We empirically validate four distinct transition regimes predicted by this coordinate across diverse settings: SAEs on language models (Pythia), SSL (CIFAR), and grokking (modular arithmetic). Crucially, under finite dissipation, macroscopic symmetry-breaking can lag the initial zero-crossing by orders of magnitude, which providing a rigorous dynamical account of the delayed escape observed in grokking. Microscopically, the bifurcation creates a shared unstable subspace, forcing collective symmetry breaking. We term this the "feature lottery" in SAE training: a feature's terminal interpretability becomes predictable remarkably early. By only 5% of training, early atom purity robustly predicts final convergence purity, with top-decile early atoms achieving over 12x the baseline purity at convergence. Beyond explaining concept emergence, β/β_c provides a practical early-warning indicator for training health, detecting the onset of usable structure, the crystallization of feature identity, and representational collapse epochs before downstream metrics react.

Training loss and throughput can hide distinct internal representation in language-model training. To examine these hidden mechanics, we use spectral measurements as practical and operational diagnostics. Using a controlled family of decoder-only models adapted from the modded NanoGPT codebase, we introduce an empirical protocol based on activation covariance and per-sample gradient SVD spectra. This dual-view reveals three empirical findings and one mechanistic explanation. First, batch size acts as a latent determinant of representation geometry: runs that reach equal loss settle into systematically distinct activation spectra. Second, the activation covariance tail measured early in training reliably forecasts downstream token efficiency. Third, movement of the activation spectrum head (leading modes), together with gradient spectra, characterizes underlying learning-dynamics changes, separating learning-side architectural improvements from primarily execution-side gains. These predictive and diagnostic signals persist across the 12-, 36-, and 48-layer model tiers. Finally, a mechanistic model proves the main observations and explains how activation covariance spectra correlate with task-aligned feature learning.

Koopman theory turns nonlinear dynamics into a linear spectral problem. In computation, however, everything depends on a hard finite-dimensional choice: the observables must be expressive, nearly invariant under the dynamics, and, ideally, compatible with composition. Deep Koopman methods learn flexible coordinates, whereas structure-preserving methods enforce operator identities on fixed dictionaries. We combine these ideas by introducing Deep Embedded Multiplicative Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DeepMDMD), a method that learns a latent space and a partition of it, while enforcing the Koopman product rule as an exact algebraic constraint. Training alternates between an exact multiplicative operator update and a differentiable latent-clustering step that promotes Koopman closure. The result is a finite transition map on learned latent cells. Its nonzero spectrum lies on the unit circle, its dictionary is shaped by the dynamics rather than by ambient geometry, and forecasts are made in latent coordinates before being decoded to physical space. Across Hamiltonian, chaotic, and fluid examples, DeepMDMD learns dictionaries that are far more compact and dynamically coherent than those produced by geometric MDMD partitions. It reduces spectral pollution, reveals richer continuous-spectrum structure, and gives stable forecasts under severe noise. In high-dimensional flows, including a 158,624-dimensional cylinder wake and a noisy Re=20,000 lid-driven cavity, it preserves coherent structures and long-time spectral statistics where state-space MDMD fails. These results suggest a practical rule for Koopman learning: learn the coordinates, constrain the algebra.

Deep learning has been wildly successful in practice and most state-of-the-art machine learning methods are based on neural networks. Lacking, however, is a rigorous mathematical theory that adequately explains the amazing performance of deep neural networks. In this article, we present a relatively new mathematical framework that provides the beginning of a deeper understanding of deep learning. This framework precisely characterizes the functional properties of neural networks that are trained to fit to data. The key mathematical tools which support this framework include transform-domain sparse regularization, the Radon transform of computed tomography, and approximation theory, which are all techniques deeply rooted in signal processing. This framework explains the effect of weight decay regularization in neural network training, the use of skip connections and low-rank weight matrices in network architectures, the role of sparsity in neural networks, and explains why neural networks can perform well in high-dimensional problems.

Prognostic Health Management (PHM) systems monitor and predict equipment health. A key task is Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation, which predicts how long a component, such as a rolling element bearing, will operate before failure. Many RUL methods exist but often lack generalizability and robustness under changing operating conditions. This paper introduces CARLE, a hybrid AI framework that combines deep and shallow learning to address these challenges. CARLE uses Res-CNN and Res-LSTM blocks with multi-head attention and residual connections to capture spatial and temporal degradation patterns, and a Random Forest Regressor (RFR) for stable, accurate RUL prediction. A compact preprocessing pipeline applies Gaussian filtering for noise reduction and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) for time-frequency feature extraction. We evaluate CARLE on the XJTU-SY and PRONOSTIA bearing datasets. Ablation studies measure each component's contribution, while noise and cross-domain experiments test robustness and generalization. Comparative results show CARLE outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, especially under dynamic conditions. Finally, we analyze model interpretability with LIME and SHAP to assess transparency and trustworthiness.

We present a machine learning search for local, low-mass galaxies (z < 0.02 and 10^6 M_odot < M_* < 10^9 M_odot) using the combined photometric data from the DESI Imaging Legacy Surveys and the WISE survey. We introduce the spectrally confirmed training sample, discuss evaluation metrics, investigate the features, compare different machine learning algorithms, and find that a 7-class neural network classification model is highly effective in separating the signal (local, low-mass galaxies) from various contaminants, reaching a precision of 95% and a recall of 76%. The principal contaminants are nearby sub-L^* galaxies at 0.02 < z < 0.05 and nearby massive galaxies at 0.05 < z < 0.2. We find that the features encoding surface brightness information are essential to achieving a correct classification. Our final catalog, which we make available, consists of 112,859 local, low-mass galaxy candidates, where 36,408 have high probability (p_{rm signal} > 0.95), covering the entire Legacy Surveys DR9 footprint. Using DESI-EDR public spectra and data from the SAGA and ELVES surveys, we find that our model has a precision of sim 100%, 96%, and 97%, respectively, and a recall of sim 51%, 68% and 53%, respectively. The results of those independent spectral verification demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our machine learning classification model.

This study proposes a two-phase methodology for detecting and classifying auxiliary insulation in structural components. In the detection phase, a YOLOv8x model is trained on a dataset of complete structural blueprints, each annotated with bounding boxes indicating areas that should contain insulation. In the classification phase, these detected insulation patches are cropped and categorized into two classes: present or missing. These are then used to train a YOLOv8x-CLS model that determines the presence or absence of auxiliary insulation. Preprocessing steps for both datasets included annotation, augmentation, and appropriate cropping of the insulation regions. The detection model achieved a mean average precision (mAP) score of 82%, while the classification model attained an accuracy of 98%. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in automating insulation detection and classification, providing a foundation for further advancements in this domain.

Learning rate schedules used in practice bear little resemblance to those recommended by theory. We close much of this theory/practice gap, and as a consequence are able to derive new problem-adaptive learning rate schedules. Our key technical contribution is a refined analysis of learning rate schedules for a wide class of optimization algorithms (including SGD). In contrast to most prior works that study the convergence of the average iterate, we study the last iterate, which is what most people use in practice. When considering only worst-case analysis, our theory predicts that the best choice is the linear decay schedule: a popular choice in practice that sets the stepsize proportionally to 1 - t/T, where t is the current iteration and T is the total number of steps. To go beyond this worst-case analysis, we use the observed gradient norms to derive schedules refined for any particular task. These refined schedules exhibit learning rate warm-up and rapid learning rate annealing near the end of training. Ours is the first systematic approach to automatically yield both of these properties. We perform the most comprehensive evaluation of learning rate schedules to date, evaluating across 10 diverse deep learning problems, a series of LLMs, and a suite of logistic regression problems. We validate that overall, the linear-decay schedule matches or outperforms all commonly used default schedules including cosine annealing, and that our schedule refinement method gives further improvements.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.

Ultra-high-energy neutrinos and cosmic rays are excellent probes of astroparticle physics phenomena. For astroparticle physics analyses, robust and accurate reconstruction of signal parameters such as arrival direction and energy is essential. Radio detection is an established detector concept explored by many observatories; however, current reconstruction methods ignore bin-to-bin noise correlations, which limits reconstruction resolution and, so far, has prevented calculations of event-by-event uncertainties. In this work, we present a likelihood description of neutrino or cosmic-ray signals in radio detectors with correlated noise, as present in all neutrino and cosmic-ray radio detectors. We demonstrate, with simulation studies of both neutrinos and cosmic-ray radio signals, that signal parameters such as energy and direction, including event-by-event uncertainties with correct coverage, can be obtained. This method reduces reconstruction uncertainties and biases compared to previous approaches. Additionally, the Likelihood can be used for event selection and enables differentiable end-to-end detector optimization. The reconstruction code is available through the open-source software NuRadioReco.

The noise transition matrix plays a central role in the problem of learning with noisy labels. Among many other reasons, a large number of existing solutions rely on access to it. Identifying and estimating the transition matrix without ground truth labels is a critical and challenging task. When label noise transition depends on each instance, the problem of identifying the instance-dependent noise transition matrix becomes substantially more challenging. Despite recent works proposing solutions for learning from instance-dependent noisy labels, the field lacks a unified understanding of when such a problem remains identifiable. The goal of this paper is to characterize the identifiability of the label noise transition matrix. Building on Kruskal's identifiability results, we are able to show the necessity of multiple noisy labels in identifying the noise transition matrix for the generic case at the instance level. We further instantiate the results to explain the successes of the state-of-the-art solutions and how additional assumptions alleviated the requirement of multiple noisy labels. Our result also reveals that disentangled features are helpful in the above identification task and we provide empirical evidence.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

In this work, we significantly enhance masked particle modeling (MPM), a self-supervised learning scheme for constructing highly expressive representations of unordered sets relevant to developing foundation models for high-energy physics. In MPM, a model is trained to recover the missing elements of a set, a learning objective that requires no labels and can be applied directly to experimental data. We achieve significant performance improvements over previous work on MPM by addressing inefficiencies in the implementation and incorporating a more powerful decoder. We compare several pre-training tasks and introduce new reconstruction methods that utilize conditional generative models without data tokenization or discretization. We show that these new methods outperform the tokenized learning objective from the original MPM on a new test bed for foundation models for jets, which includes using a wide variety of downstream tasks relevant to jet physics, such as classification, secondary vertex finding, and track identification.

Data balancing across multiple modalities and sources appears in various forms in foundation models in machine learning and AI, e.g. in CLIP and DINO. We show that data balancing across modalities and sources actually offers an unsuspected benefit: variance reduction. We present a non-asymptotic statistical bound that quantifies this variance reduction effect and relates it to the eigenvalue decay of Markov operators. Furthermore, we describe how various forms of data balancing in contrastive multimodal learning and self-supervised clustering can be better understood, and even improved upon, owing to our variance reduction viewpoint.

Stars on the AGB can exhibit acoustic pulsation modes of different radial orders, along with non-radial modes. These pulsations are essential to the mass-loss process and influence the evolutionary pathways of AGB stars. P-L relations serve as a valuable diagnostic for understanding stellar evolution along the AGB. 3D RHD simulations provide a powerful tool for investigating pulsation phenomena driven by convective processes and their non-linear coupling with stellar oscillations. We investigate multi-mode pulsations in AGB stars using advanced 3D 'star-in-a-box' simulations with the CO5BOLD code. Signatures of these multi-mode pulsations were weak in our previous 3D models. Our focus is on identifying and characterising the various pulsation modes, examining their persistence and transitions, and comparing the results with 1D model predictions and observational data where applicable. We produced a new model grid comprising AGB stars with current masses of 0.7, 0.8, and 1,M_{odot}. Fourier analysis was applied to dynamic, time-dependent quantities to extract dominant pulsation modes and their corresponding periods. Additionally, wavelet transforms were employed to identify mode-switching behaviour over time. The models successfully reproduce the P-L sequences found in AGB stars. Mode-switching phenomena are found in both the models and wavelet analyses of observational data, allowing us to infer similarities in the underlying pulsation dynamics. These 3D simulations highlight the natural emergence of multi-mode pulsations, including both radial and non-radial modes, driven by the self-consistent interplay of convection and oscillations. Our findings underscore the value of 3D RHD models in capturing the non-linear behaviour of AGB pulsations, providing insights into mode switching, envelope structures, and potential links to episodic mass-loss events.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are increasingly being adopted as highly-capable general-purpose time series representation learners. Although their training corpora are vast, they exclude astronomical time series data. Observations of stars produce peta-scale time series with unique challenges including irregular sampling and heteroskedasticity. We introduce StarEmbed, the first public benchmark for rigorous and standardized evaluation of state-of-the-art TSFMs on stellar time series observations (``light curves''). We benchmark on three scientifically-motivated downstream tasks: unsupervised clustering, supervised classification, and out-of-distribution source detection. StarEmbed integrates a catalog of expert-vetted labels with multi-variate light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility, yielding ~40k hand-labeled light curves spread across seven astrophysical classes. We evaluate the zero-shot representation capabilities of three TSFMs (MOIRAI, Chronos, Chronos-Bolt) and a domain-specific transformer (Astromer) against handcrafted feature extraction, the long-standing baseline in the astrophysics literature. Our results demonstrate that these TSFMs, especially the Chronos models, which are trained on data completely unlike the astronomical observations, can outperform established astrophysics-specific baselines in some tasks and effectively generalize to entirely new data. In particular, TSFMs deliver state-of-the-art performance on our out-of-distribution source detection benchmark. With the first benchmark of TSFMs on astronomical time series data, we test the limits of their generalization and motivate a paradigm shift in time-domain astronomy from using task-specific, fully supervised pipelines toward adopting generic foundation model representations for the analysis of peta-scale datasets from forthcoming observatories.

Activation outliers in large-scale transformer models pose a fundamental challenge to model quantization, creating excessively large ranges that cause severe accuracy drops during quantization. We empirically observe that outlier severity intensifies with pre-training scale (e.g., progressing from CLIP to the more extensively trained SigLIP and SigLIP2). Through theoretical analysis as well as empirical correlation studies, we establish the direct link between these activation outliers and dominant singular values of the weights. Building on this insight, we propose Selective Spectral Decay (S^2D), a geometrically-principled conditioning method that surgically regularizes only the weight components corresponding to the largest singular values during fine-tuning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that S^2D significantly reduces activation outliers and produces well-conditioned representations that are inherently quantization-friendly. Models trained with S^2D achieve up to 7% improved PTQ accuracy on ImageNet under W4A4 quantization and 4% gains when combined with QAT. These improvements also generalize across downstream tasks and vision-language models, enabling the scaling of increasingly large and rigorously trained models without sacrificing deployment efficiency.

Early battery degradation trajectory forecasting (BDTF), which predicts the full-life state-of-health trajectory from early operational data, is critical for battery optimization, manufacturing, and deployment. Battery degradation data exhibit two key characteristics. First, degradation data present a multi-level structure, including regularities shared within aging conditions and trajectory patterns shared across batteries. Second, degradation-related variations in voltage-current profiles are often localized to specific state-of-charge (SOC) intervals. Existing approaches often fail to explicitly model these characteristics. To bridge this gap, we propose BatteryMFormer, a multi-level Transformer for early BDTF. BatteryMFormer integrates (1) an aging-condition-aware decoder that injects aging-condition priors via aging-condition-informed queries and aging-condition-aware attention, (2) a meta degradation pattern memory that learns and retrieves trajectory prototypes to guide long-horizon forecasting, and (3) a dual-view encoder that jointly captures temporal dynamics and SOC-localized variations from voltage and current time series. Extensive experiments on four battery domains show that BatteryMFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, marking a significant step toward reliable BDTF. Our code is available at https://github.com/Ruifeng-Tan/BatteryMFormer.

We introduce a foundation model for event classification in high-energy physics, built on a Graph Neural Network architecture and trained on 120 million simulated proton-proton collision events spanning 12 distinct physics processes. The model is pretrained to learn a general and robust representation of collision data using challenging multiclass and multilabel classification tasks. Its performance is evaluated across seven event classification tasks, which include new physics processes not encountered during pretraining as well as ATLAS Open Data to demonstrate generalizability across different simulation frameworks, from Delphes fast simulation to full ATLAS detector simulation. Fine-tuning the pretrained model significantly improves classification performance, particularly in scenarios with limited training data, demonstrating gains in both accuracy and computational efficiency. To investigate the underlying mechanisms behind these performance improvements, we employ a representational similarity evaluation framework based on Centered Kernel Alignment. This analysis reveals that encoder-stage representations of the fine-tuned model remain similar to those of the baseline, while intermediate graph processing layers diverge substantially, indicating that fine-tuning preserves general-purpose encoders while developing fundamentally different message-passing pathways to arrive at superior task performance.

The μ-parameterization (μP) provides a principled foundation for large language model (LLM) training by prescribing width-independent learning dynamics, which in turn enables predictable scaling behavior and robust hyperparameter transfer across model sizes. A central requirement of μP is the satisfaction of certain spectral conditions on weight matrices, which ensure consistent feature learning and optimization behavior as model width grows. While these conditions are well understood in theory, guaranteeing their validity in practical training for matrix-based optimizers such as Muon is still under studied. Existing works that study Muon under μP exhibit important limitations: they either do not ensure that the spectral conditions hold throughout the entire training horizon, or require repeated spectral normalization (or Newton-Schulz iterations) applied to both weights and updates, leading to significant computational overhead and reduced practicality. In this work, we show how to reliably guarantee the spectral conditions required by μP for Muon during the entire training process. Our key insight is that for moderately large models, maintaining spectral control at the level of optimizer updates alone is sufficient to preserve μP-compatible scaling, eliminating the need for explicit spectral normalization of the weights. Based on this principle, we develop a variant of Muon, namely Muon++, that satisfies spectral condition throughout the training process. Our results bridge the gap between the theoretical promises of μP and the practical deployment of matrix-based optimizers in long-horizon training. We also take the first step towards an adaptive spectral condition by incorporating data-dependent effects, making it better suited for long-horizon LLM training.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

Classification algorithms have recently found applications in computational physics for the selection of numerical methods or models adapted to the environment and the state of the physical system. For such classification tasks, labeled training data come from numerical simulations and generally correspond to physical fields discretized on a mesh. Three challenging difficulties arise: the lack of training data, their high dimensionality, and the non-applicability of common data augmentation techniques to physics data. This article introduces two algorithms to address these issues, one for dimensionality reduction via feature selection, and one for data augmentation. These algorithms are combined with a wide variety of classifiers for their evaluation. When combined with a stacking ensemble made of six multilayer perceptrons and a ridge logistic regression, they enable reaching an accuracy of 90% on our classification problem for nonlinear structural mechanics.

We apply a Gaussian process method to the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 to discover the variable patterns and then to investigate the physical origins of the giant flares. The kernels of stochastically driven damped simple harmonic oscillator (SHO), the damped random-walk (DRW), and Matrm ern-3/2 are respectively used to describe the adaptive-binning gamma-ray light curves of the two flares. Our findings show that both the extreme gamma-ray flares of 3C 454.3 and 3C 279 clearly prefer the SHO kernel in the over-damped mode and the Matrm ern-3/2 kernel over the DRW kernel. The resulted SHO and Matrm ern-3/2 power spectral densities (PSDs) are the same for each object, with the index changing from -4 at high frequencies to 0 at low frequencies. The patterns of the two flares are both approaching the critical damping mode with the quality factor Q approx 0.4 (i.e., the damping ratio eta approx 1.25), but with slightly different damping timescales. The characteristic timescale (corresponding to the broken frequency in the PSD) for 3C 454.3 is 2-3 days and 3-5 days for 3C 279. The variable patterns found here suggest that once the system responds to the energy injection disturbance, the release of the energy in the system is finished abruptly. The obtained timescale provides a constraint on the size of energy dissipation region for each source.

Instruction tuned reasoning models are increasingly deployed with safety classifiers trained on frozen embeddings, assuming representation stability across model updates. We systematically investigate this assumption and find it fails: normalized perturbations of magnitude σ=0.02 (corresponding to approx 1^circ angular drift on the embedding sphere) reduce classifier performance from 85% to 50% ROC-AUC. Critically, mean confidence only drops 14%, producing dangerous silent failures where 72% of misclassifications occur with high confidence, defeating standard monitoring. We further show that instruction-tuned models exhibit 20% worse class separability than base models, making aligned systems paradoxically harder to safeguard. Our findings expose a fundamental fragility in production AI safety architectures and challenge the assumption that safety mechanisms transfer across model versions.

We address hallucination detection in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) by framing the problem through the lens of dynamical systems stability theory. Rather than treating hallucination as a straightforward classification task, we conceptualize (M)LLMs as dynamical systems, where factual knowledge is represented by stable equilibrium points within the representation space. Our main insight is that hallucinations tend to arise at the boundaries of knowledge-transition regions separating stable and unstable zones. To capture this phenomenon, we propose Lyapunov Probes: lightweight networks trained with derivative-based stability constraints that enforce a monotonic decay in confidence under input perturbations. By performing systematic perturbation analysis and applying a two-stage training process, these probes reliably distinguish between stable factual regions and unstable, hallucination-prone regions. Experiments on diverse datasets and models demonstrate consistent improvements over existing baselines.

Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) promises a path toward fully understanding how neural networks make their predictions. Prior work demonstrates that even when trained to perform simple arithmetic, models can implement a variety of algorithms (sometimes concurrently) depending on initialization and hyperparameters. Does this mean neuron-level interpretability techniques have limited applicability? We argue that high-dimensional neural networks can learn low-dimensional representations of their training data that are useful beyond simply making good predictions. Such representations can be understood through the mechanistic interpretability lens and provide insights that are surprisingly faithful to human-derived domain knowledge. This indicates that such approaches to interpretability can be useful for deriving a new understanding of a problem from models trained to solve it. As a case study, we extract nuclear physics concepts by studying models trained to reproduce nuclear data.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.

Koopman representations aim to learn features of nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) which lead to linear dynamics in the latent space. Theoretically, such features can be used to simplify many problems in modeling and control of NLDS. In this work we study autoencoder formulations of this problem, and different ways they can be used to model dynamics, specifically for future state prediction over long horizons. We discover several limitations of predicting future states in the latent space and propose an inference-time mechanism, which we refer to as Periodic Reencoding, for faithfully capturing long term dynamics. We justify this method both analytically and empirically via experiments in low and high dimensional NLDS.

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce SeismoGPT, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90^circ, and magnitudes 3 leq M_w leq 7. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves median normalized cross correlation above 0.93. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

Large language models deliver strong reasoning and tool-use skills, yet their computational demands make them impractical for edge or cost-sensitive deployments. We present Xmodel-2.5, a 1.3-billion-parameter small language model designed as a drop-in agent core. Training with maximal-update parameterization (μP) allows hyper-parameters tuned on a 20M-parameter proxy to transfer directly to the full model, even under the parameter-tied tie-word-embedding architecture. A 1.4T-token Warmup--Stable--Decay curriculum is used, and we further show that switching from AdamW to Muon during the decay phase improves the 13-task reasoning average by 4.58\,\% while keeping every other hyper-parameter fixed, verifying that early AdamW stability can be paired with late Muon sharpening for better downstream performance. FP8-mixed-precision training balances accuracy and throughput. All checkpoints, recipes, and evaluation code are released under the Apache-2.0 license.https://huggingface.co/XiaoduoAILab/Xmodel-2.5 and https://huggingface.co/XiaoduoAILab/Xmodel-2.5-history (training checkpoints). Training code and evaluation harness: https://github.com/XiaoduoAILab/Xmodel-2.5.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

The modeling of probability distributions, specifically generative modeling and density estimation, has become an immensely popular subject in recent years by virtue of its outstanding performance on sophisticated data such as images and texts. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of its success is still incomplete. One mystery is the paradox between memorization and generalization: In theory, the model is trained to be exactly the same as the empirical distribution of the finite samples, whereas in practice, the trained model can generate new samples or estimate the likelihood of unseen samples. Likewise, the overwhelming diversity of distribution learning models calls for a unified perspective on this subject. This paper provides a mathematical framework such that all the well-known models can be derived based on simple principles. To demonstrate its efficacy, we present a survey of our results on the approximation error, training error and generalization error of these models, which can all be established based on this framework. In particular, the aforementioned paradox is resolved by proving that these models enjoy implicit regularization during training, so that the generalization error at early-stopping avoids the curse of dimensionality. Furthermore, we provide some new results on landscape analysis and the mode collapse phenomenon.

Many natural dynamic processes -- such as in vivo cellular differentiation or disease progression -- can only be observed through the lens of static sample snapshots. While challenging, reconstructing their temporal evolution to decipher underlying dynamic properties is of major interest to scientific research. Existing approaches enable data transport along a temporal axis but are poorly scalable in high dimension and require restrictive assumptions to be met. To address these issues, we propose \textbf{Multi-Marginal temporal Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching} (MMtSBM) for video generation from unpaired data, extending the theoretical guarantees and empirical efficiency of Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (arXiv:archive/2303.16852) by deriving the Iterative Markovian Fitting algorithm to multiple marginals in a novel factorized fashion. Experiments show that MMtSBM retains theoretical properties on toy examples, achieves state-of-the-art performance on real world datasets such as transcriptomic trajectory inference in 100 dimensions, and for the first time recovers couplings and dynamics in very high dimensional image settings. Our work establishes multi-marginal Schr\"odinger bridges as a practical and principled approach for recovering hidden dynamics from static data.

Modern-day time-domain photometric surveys collect a lot of observations of various astronomical objects and the coming era of large-scale surveys will provide even more information on their properties. Spectroscopic follow-ups are especially crucial for transients such as supernovae and most of these objects have not been subject to such studies. }{Flux time series are actively used as an affordable alternative for photometric classification and characterization, for instance, peak identifications and luminosity decline estimations. However, the collected time series are multidimensional and irregularly sampled, while also containing outliers and without any well-defined systematic uncertainties. This paper presents a search for the best-performing methods to approximate the observed light curves over time and wavelength for the purpose of generating time series with regular time steps in each passband.}{We examined several light curve approximation methods based on neural networks such as multilayer perceptrons, Bayesian neural networks, and normalizing flows to approximate observations of a single light curve. Test datasets include simulated PLAsTiCC and real Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves of transients.}{The tests demonstrate that even just a few observations are enough to fit the networks and improve the quality of approximation, compared to state-of-the-art models. The methods described in this work have a low computational complexity and are significantly faster than Gaussian processes. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of the approximation techniques from the perspective of further peak identification and transients classification. The study results have been released in an open and user-friendly Fulu Python library available on GitHub for the scientific community.

Scaling limits, such as infinite-width limits, serve as promising theoretical tools to study large-scale models. However, it is widely believed that existing infinite-width theory does not faithfully explain the behavior of practical networks, especially those trained in standard parameterization (SP) meaning He initialization with a global learning rate. For instance, existing theory for SP predicts instability at large learning rates and vanishing feature learning at stable ones. In practice, however, optimal learning rates decay slower than theoretically predicted and networks exhibit both stable training and non-trivial feature learning, even at very large widths. Here, we show that this discrepancy is not fully explained by finite-width phenomena. Instead, we find a resolution through a finer-grained analysis of the regime previously considered unstable and therefore uninteresting. In particular, we show that, under cross-entropy (CE) loss, the unstable regime comprises two distinct sub-regimes: a catastrophically unstable regime and a more benign controlled divergence regime, where logits diverge but gradients and activations remain stable. Moreover, under large learning rates at the edge of the controlled divergence regime, there exists a well-defined infinite width limit where features continue to evolve in all the hidden layers. In experiments across optimizers, architectures, and data modalities, we validate that neural networks operate in this controlled divergence regime under CE loss but not under MSE loss. Our empirical evidence suggests that width-scaling considerations are surprisingly useful for predicting empirically maximal stable learning rate exponents which provide useful guidance on optimal learning rate exponents. Finally, our analysis clarifies the effectiveness and limitations of recently proposed layerwise learning rate scaling for standard initialization.

What sorts of structure might enable a learner to discover classes from unlabeled data? Traditional approaches rely on feature-space similarity and heroic assumptions on the data. In this paper, we introduce unsupervised learning under Latent Label Shift (LLS), where we have access to unlabeled data from multiple domains such that the label marginals p_d(y) can shift across domains but the class conditionals p(x|y) do not. This work instantiates a new principle for identifying classes: elements that shift together group together. For finite input spaces, we establish an isomorphism between LLS and topic modeling: inputs correspond to words, domains to documents, and labels to topics. Addressing continuous data, we prove that when each label's support contains a separable region, analogous to an anchor word, oracle access to p(d|x) suffices to identify p_d(y) and p_d(y|x) up to permutation. Thus motivated, we introduce a practical algorithm that leverages domain-discriminative models as follows: (i) push examples through domain discriminator p(d|x); (ii) discretize the data by clustering examples in p(d|x) space; (iii) perform non-negative matrix factorization on the discrete data; (iv) combine the recovered p(y|d) with the discriminator outputs p(d|x) to compute p_d(y|x) ; forall d. With semi-synthetic experiments, we show that our algorithm can leverage domain information to improve upon competitive unsupervised classification methods. We reveal a failure mode of standard unsupervised classification methods when feature-space similarity does not indicate true groupings, and show empirically that our method better handles this case. Our results establish a deep connection between distribution shift and topic modeling, opening promising lines for future work.

Generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) is the problem of learning a classifier where some classes have samples and others are learned from side information, like semantic attributes or text description, in a zero-shot learning fashion (ZSL). Training a single model that operates in these two regimes simultaneously is challenging. Here we describe a probabilistic approach that breaks the model into three modular components, and then combines them in a consistent way. Specifically, our model consists of three classifiers: A "gating" model that makes soft decisions if a sample is from a "seen" class, and two experts: a ZSL expert, and an expert model for seen classes. We address two main difficulties in this approach: How to provide an accurate estimate of the gating probability without any training samples for unseen classes; and how to use expert predictions when it observes samples outside of its domain. The key insight to our approach is to pass information between the three models to improve each one's accuracy, while maintaining the modular structure. We test our approach, adaptive confidence smoothing (COSMO), on four standard GZSL benchmark datasets and find that it largely outperforms state-of-the-art GZSL models. COSMO is also the first model that closes the gap and surpasses the performance of generative models for GZSL, even-though it is a light-weight model that is much easier to train and tune. Notably, COSMO offers a new view for developing zero-shot models. Thanks to COSMO's modular structure, instead of trying to perform well both on seen and on unseen classes, models can focus on accurate classification of unseen classes, and later consider seen class models.

We present a machine learning (ML) framework for the detection of wide binary star systems using Gaia DR3 data. By training supervised ML models on established wide binary catalogues, we efficiently classify wide binaries and employ clustering and nearest neighbour search to pair candidate systems. Our approach incorporates data preprocessing techniques such as SMOTE, correlation analysis, and PCA, and achieves high accuracy and recall in the task of wide binary classification. The resulting publicly available code enables rapid, scalable, and customizable analysis of wide binaries, complementing conventional analyses and providing a valuable resource for future astrophysical studies.

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

We study the ability of foundation models to learn representations for classification that are transferable to new, unseen classes. Recent results in the literature show that representations learned by a single classifier over many classes are competitive on few-shot learning problems with representations learned by special-purpose algorithms designed for such problems. In this paper we provide an explanation for this behavior based on the recently observed phenomenon that the features learned by overparameterized classification networks show an interesting clustering property, called neural collapse. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that neural collapse generalizes to new samples from the training classes, and -- more importantly -- to new classes as well, allowing foundation models to provide feature maps that work well in transfer learning and, specifically, in the few-shot setting.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) at ultra-low precision is critically impeded by instability rooted in the conflict between discrete quantization constraints and the intrinsic heavy-tailed spectral nature of linguistic data. By formalizing the connection between Zipfian statistics and random matrix theory, we prove that the power-law decay in the singular value spectra of embeddings is a fundamental requisite for semantic encoding. We derive theoretical bounds showing that uniform quantization introduces a noise floor that disproportionately truncates this spectral tail, which induces spectral flattening and a strictly provable increase in the stable rank of representations. Empirical validation across diverse architectures including GPT-2 and TinyLlama corroborates that this geometric degradation precipitates representational collapse. This work not only quantifies the spectral sensitivity of LLMs but also establishes spectral fidelity as a necessary condition for stable low-bit optimization.

Results are presented from searches for the standard model Higgs boson in proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 and 8 TeV in the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at the LHC, using data samples corresponding to integrated luminosities of up to 5.1 inverse femtobarns at 7 TeV and 5.3 inverse femtobarns at 8 TeV. The search is performed in five decay modes: gamma gamma, ZZ, WW, tau tau, and b b-bar. An excess of events is observed above the expected background, with a local significance of 5.0 standard deviations, at a mass near 125 GeV, signalling the production of a new particle. The expected significance for a standard model Higgs boson of that mass is 5.8 standard deviations. The excess is most significant in the two decay modes with the best mass resolution, gamma gamma and ZZ; a fit to these signals gives a mass of 125.3 +/- 0.4 (stat.) +/- 0.5 (syst.) GeV. The decay to two photons indicates that the new particle is a boson with spin different from one.

In recent years, Muon has emerged as the dominant method for training large language models, and transformers more broadly. The essential difference, when compared to standard gradient descent methods, is to replace the usual update matrix M=UΣV^top with its polar factor UV^top. In this work, we consider a class of Muon-like updates, where we replace the update M with UΣ^p V^top for some parameter p. We call this a "spectral-shaping" operation, and develop a theory of how to pick p which depends on (a) local curvature of the loss function, (b) noise stemming from stochastic gradients and label noise, and (c) training stage. Our theory and experimentation reveal a previously overlooked behavior: positive p helps early by emphasizing high-curvature directions and accelerating signal contraction, while mildly negative p helps later by reallocating update strength toward low-curvature directions that still contain useful training signals. Building on the insight, we propose DynMuon, an efficient dynamic spectral shaping method that schedules p from positive to mildly negative over training. Extensive experiments across model sizes, architectures, and training settings show that DynMuon consistently achieves lower validation loss than Muon, while requiring 10.6-26.5% fewer steps to reach the same target loss.

Scaling laws for large language models depend critically on the optimizer and parameterization. Existing hyperparameter transfer laws are mainly developed for first-order optimizers, and they do not structurally prevent training instability at scale. Recent hypersphere optimization methods constrain weight matrices to a fixed-norm hypersphere, offering a promising alternative for more stable scaling. We introduce HyperP (Hypersphere Parameterization), the first framework for transferring optimal learning rates across model width, depth, training tokens, and Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) granularity under the Frobenius-sphere constraint with the Muon optimizer. We prove that weight decay is a first-order no-op on the Frobenius sphere, show that Depth-μP remains necessary, and find that the optimal learning rate follows the same data-scaling power law with the "magic exponent" 0.32 previously observed for AdamW. A single base learning rate tuned at the smallest scale transfers across all compute budgets under HyperP, yielding 1.58times compute efficiency over a strong Muon baseline at 6times10^{21} FLOPs. Moreover, HyperP delivers transferable stability: all monitored instability indicators, including Z-values, output RMS, and activation outliers, remain bounded and non-increasing under training FLOPs scaling. We also propose SqrtGate, an MoE gating mechanism derived from the hypersphere constraint that preserves output RMS across MoE granularities for improved granularity scaling, and show that hypersphere optimization enables substantially larger auxiliary load-balancing weights, yielding both strong performance and good expert balance. We release our training codebase at https://github.com/microsoft/ArchScale.

This paper proposes the Degradation Classification Pre-Training (DCPT), which enables models to learn how to classify the degradation type of input images for universal image restoration pre-training. Unlike the existing self-supervised pre-training methods, DCPT utilizes the degradation type of the input image as an extremely weak supervision, which can be effortlessly obtained, even intrinsic in all image restoration datasets. DCPT comprises two primary stages. Initially, image features are extracted from the encoder. Subsequently, a lightweight decoder, such as ResNet18, is leveraged to classify the degradation type of the input image solely based on the features extracted in the first stage, without utilizing the input image. The encoder is pre-trained with a straightforward yet potent DCPT, which is used to address universal image restoration and achieve outstanding performance. Following DCPT, both convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and transformers demonstrate performance improvements, with gains of up to 2.55 dB in the 10D all-in-one restoration task and 6.53 dB in the mixed degradation scenarios. Moreover, previous self-supervised pretraining methods, such as masked image modeling, discard the decoder after pre-training, while our DCPT utilizes the pre-trained parameters more effectively. This superiority arises from the degradation classifier acquired during DCPT, which facilitates transfer learning between models of identical architecture trained on diverse degradation types. Source code and models are available at https://github.com/MILab-PKU/dcpt.

In this paper, we investigate the behavior of gradient descent algorithms in physics-informed machine learning methods like PINNs, which minimize residuals connected to partial differential equations (PDEs). Our key result is that the difficulty in training these models is closely related to the conditioning of a specific differential operator. This operator, in turn, is associated to the Hermitian square of the differential operator of the underlying PDE. If this operator is ill-conditioned, it results in slow or infeasible training. Therefore, preconditioning this operator is crucial. We employ both rigorous mathematical analysis and empirical evaluations to investigate various strategies, explaining how they better condition this critical operator, and consequently improve training.

Quantum classifiers are trainable quantum circuits used as machine learning models. The first part of the circuit implements a quantum feature map that encodes classical inputs into quantum states, embedding the data in a high-dimensional Hilbert space; the second part of the circuit executes a quantum measurement interpreted as the output of the model. Usually, the measurement is trained to distinguish quantum-embedded data. We propose to instead train the first part of the circuit -- the embedding -- with the objective of maximally separating data classes in Hilbert space, a strategy we call quantum metric learning. As a result, the measurement minimizing a linear classification loss is already known and depends on the metric used: for embeddings separating data using the l1 or trace distance, this is the Helstrom measurement, while for the l2 or Hilbert-Schmidt distance, it is a simple overlap measurement. This approach provides a powerful analytic framework for quantum machine learning and eliminates a major component in current models, freeing up more precious resources to best leverage the capabilities of near-term quantum information processors.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

We propose and test the LLM Brain Rot Hypothesis: continual exposure to junk web text induces lasting cognitive decline in large language models (LLMs). To causally isolate data quality, we run controlled experiments on real Twitter/X corpora, constructing junk and reversely controlled datasets via two orthogonal operationalizations: M1 (engagement degree) and M2 (semantic quality), with matched token scale and training operations across conditions. Contrary to the control group, continual pre-training of 4 LLMs on the junk dataset causes non-trivial declines (Hedges' g>0.3) on reasoning, long-context understanding, safety, and inflating "dark traits" (e.g., psychopathy, narcissism). The gradual mixtures of junk and control datasets also yield dose-response cognition decay: for example, under M1, ARC-Challenge with Chain Of Thoughts drops 74.9 rightarrow 57.2 and RULER-CWE 84.4 rightarrow 52.3 as junk ratio rises from 0% to 100%. Error forensics reveal several key insights. First, we identify thought-skipping as the primary lesion: models increasingly truncate or skip reasoning chains, explaining most of the error growth. Second, partial but incomplete healing is observed: scaling instruction tuning and clean data pre-training improve the declined cognition yet cannot restore baseline capability, suggesting persistent representational drift rather than format mismatch. Finally, we discover that the popularity, a non-semantic metric, of a tweet is a better indicator of the Brain Rot effect than the length in M1. Together, the results provide significant, multi-perspective evidence that data quality is a causal driver of LLM capability decay, reframing curation for continual pretraining as a training-time safety problem and motivating routine "cognitive health checks" for deployed LLMs.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.