Daily Papers

Real-time 3D hand forecasting is a critical component for fluid human-computer interaction in applications like AR and assistive robotics. However, existing methods are ill-suited for these scenarios, as they typically require offline access to accumulated video sequences and cannot incorporate language guidance that conveys task intent. To overcome these limitations, we introduce SFHand, the first streaming framework for language-guided 3D hand forecasting. SFHand autoregressively predicts a comprehensive set of future 3D hand states, including hand type, 2D bounding box, 3D pose, and trajectory, from a continuous stream of video and language instructions. Our framework combines a streaming autoregressive architecture with an ROI-enhanced memory layer, capturing temporal context while focusing on salient hand-centric regions. To enable this research, we also introduce EgoHaFL, the first large-scale dataset featuring synchronized 3D hand poses and language instructions. We demonstrate that SFHand achieves new state-of-the-art results in 3D hand forecasting, outperforming prior work by a significant margin of up to 35.8%. Furthermore, we show the practical utility of our learned representations by transferring them to downstream embodied manipulation tasks, improving task success rates by up to 13.4% on multiple benchmarks. Dataset page: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ut-vision/EgoHaFL, project page: https://github.com/ut-vision/SFHand.

Building an interactive AI assistant that can perceive, reason, and collaborate with humans in the real world has been a long-standing pursuit in the AI community. This work is part of a broader research effort to develop intelligent agents that can interactively guide humans through performing tasks in the physical world. As a first step in this direction, we introduce HoloAssist, a large-scale egocentric human interaction dataset, where two people collaboratively complete physical manipulation tasks. The task performer executes the task while wearing a mixed-reality headset that captures seven synchronized data streams. The task instructor watches the performer's egocentric video in real time and guides them verbally. By augmenting the data with action and conversational annotations and observing the rich behaviors of various participants, we present key insights into how human assistants correct mistakes, intervene in the task completion procedure, and ground their instructions to the environment. HoloAssist spans 166 hours of data captured by 350 unique instructor-performer pairs. Furthermore, we construct and present benchmarks on mistake detection, intervention type prediction, and hand forecasting, along with detailed analysis. We expect HoloAssist will provide an important resource for building AI assistants that can fluidly collaborate with humans in the real world. Data can be downloaded at https://holoassist.github.io/.

Hand trajectory forecasting from egocentric views is crucial for enabling a prompt understanding of human intentions when interacting with AR/VR systems. However, existing methods handle this problem in a 2D image space which is inadequate for 3D real-world applications. In this paper, we set up an egocentric 3D hand trajectory forecasting task that aims to predict hand trajectories in a 3D space from early observed RGB videos in a first-person view. To fulfill this goal, we propose an uncertainty-aware state space Transformer (USST) that takes the merits of the attention mechanism and aleatoric uncertainty within the framework of the classical state-space model. The model can be further enhanced by the velocity constraint and visual prompt tuning (VPT) on large vision transformers. Moreover, we develop an annotation workflow to collect 3D hand trajectories with high quality. Experimental results on H2O and EgoPAT3D datasets demonstrate the superiority of USST for both 2D and 3D trajectory forecasting. The code and datasets are publicly released: https://actionlab-cv.github.io/EgoHandTrajPred.

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies between data points. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are good at capturing local patterns for modeling short-term dependencies. However, CNNs cannot learn long-term dependencies due to the limited receptive field. Transformers on the other hand are capable of learning global context and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose to harness the power of CNNs and Transformers to model both short-term and long-term dependencies within a time series, and forecast if the price would go up, down or remain the same (flat) in the future. In our experiments, we demonstrated the success of the proposed method in comparison to commonly adopted statistical and deep learning methods on forecasting intraday stock price change of S&P 500 constituents.

One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed with local neural interactions, like 3D convolutions or 3D local attention windows as in Pangu-Weather. On the other hand, some works have shown great success in weather forecasting without this locality principle, at the cost of a much higher parameter count. In this paper, we show that the 3D local processing in Pangu-Weather is computationally sub-optimal. We design ArchesWeather, a transformer model that combines 2D attention with a column-wise attention-based feature interaction module, and demonstrate that this design improves forecasting skill. ArchesWeather is trained at 1.5° resolution and 24h lead time, with a training budget of a few GPU-days and a lower inference cost than competing methods. An ensemble of four of our models shows better RMSE scores than the IFS HRES and is competitive with the 1.4° 50-members NeuralGCM ensemble for one to three days ahead forecasting. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/gcouairon/ArchesWeather.

This paper investigates the problem of forecasting multivariate aggregated human mobility while preserving the privacy of the individuals concerned. Differential privacy, a state-of-the-art formal notion, has been used as the privacy guarantee in two different and independent steps when training deep learning models. On one hand, we considered gradient perturbation, which uses the differentially private stochastic gradient descent algorithm to guarantee the privacy of each time series sample in the learning stage. On the other hand, we considered input perturbation, which adds differential privacy guarantees in each sample of the series before applying any learning. We compared four state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks: Long Short-Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, and their Bidirectional architectures, i.e., Bidirectional-LSTM and Bidirectional-GRU. Extensive experiments were conducted with a real-world multivariate mobility dataset, which we published openly along with this paper. As shown in the results, differentially private deep learning models trained under gradient or input perturbation achieve nearly the same performance as non-private deep learning models, with loss in performance varying between 0.57% to 2.8%. The contribution of this paper is significant for those involved in urban planning and decision-making, providing a solution to the human mobility multivariate forecast problem through differentially private deep learning models.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), which involves predicting long-term future values by analyzing a large amount of historical time-series data to identify patterns and trends. There exist significant challenges in LTSF due to its complex temporal dependencies and high computational demands. Although Transformer-based models offer high forecasting accuracy, they are often too compute-intensive to be deployed on devices with hardware constraints. On the other hand, the linear models aim to reduce the computational overhead by employing either decomposition methods in the time domain or compact representations in the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose MixLinear, an ultra-lightweight multivariate time series forecasting model specifically designed for resource-constrained devices. MixLinear effectively captures both temporal and frequency domain features by modeling intra-segment and inter-segment variations in the time domain and extracting frequency variations from a low-dimensional latent space in the frequency domain. By reducing the parameter scale of a downsampled n-length input/output one-layer linear model from O(n^2) to O(n), MixLinear achieves efficient computation without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive evaluations with four benchmark datasets show that MixLinear attains forecasting performance comparable to, or surpassing, state-of-the-art models with significantly fewer parameters (0.1K), which makes it well-suited for deployment on devices with limited computational capacity.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

As the use of Lithium-ion batteries continues to grow, it becomes increasingly important to be able to predict their remaining useful life. This work aims to compare the relative performance of different machine learning algorithms, both traditional machine learning and deep learning, in order to determine the best-performing algorithms for battery cycle life prediction based on minimal data. We investigated 14 different machine learning models that were fed handcrafted features based on statistical data and split into 3 feature groups for testing. For deep learning models, we tested a variety of neural network models including different configurations of standard Recurrent Neural Networks, Gated Recurrent Units, and Long Short Term Memory with and without attention mechanism. Deep learning models were fed multivariate time series signals based on the raw data for each battery across the first 100 cycles. Our experiments revealed that the machine learning algorithms on handcrafted features performed particularly well, resulting in 10-20% average mean absolute percentage error. The best-performing algorithm was the Random Forest Regressor, which gave a minimum 9.8% mean absolute percentage error. Traditional machine learning models excelled due to their capability to comprehend general data set trends. In comparison, deep learning models were observed to perform particularly poorly on raw, limited data. Algorithms like GRU and RNNs that focused on capturing medium-range data dependencies were less adept at recognizing the gradual, slow trends critical for this task. Our investigation reveals that implementing machine learning models with hand-crafted features proves to be more effective than advanced deep learning models for predicting the remaining useful Lithium-ion battery life with limited data availability.

Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies of traffic flows. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks (STTNs) that leverages dynamical directed spatial dependencies and long-range temporal dependencies to improve the accuracy of long-term traffic forecasting. Specifically, we present a new variant of graph neural networks, named spatial transformer, by dynamically modeling directed spatial dependencies with self-attention mechanism to capture realtime traffic conditions as well as the directionality of traffic flows. Furthermore, different spatial dependency patterns can be jointly modeled with multi-heads attention mechanism to consider diverse relationships related to different factors (e.g. similarity, connectivity and covariance). On the other hand, the temporal transformer is utilized to model long-range bidirectional temporal dependencies across multiple time steps. Finally, they are composed as a block to jointly model the spatial-temporal dependencies for accurate traffic prediction. Compared to existing works, the proposed model enables fast and scalable training over a long range spatial-temporal dependencies. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves competitive results compared with the state-of-the-arts, especially forecasting long-term traffic flows on real-world PeMS-Bay and PeMSD7(M) datasets.

Multivariate long-term and efficient time series forecasting is a key requirement for a variety of practical applications, and there are complex interleaving time dynamics in time series data that require decomposition modeling. Traditional time series decomposition methods are single and rely on fixed rules, which are insufficient for mining the potential information of the series and adapting to the dynamic characteristics of complex series. On the other hand, the Transformer-based models for time series forecasting struggle to effectively model long sequences and intricate dynamic relationships due to their high computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we introduce KARMA, with an Adaptive Time Channel Decomposition module (ATCD) to dynamically extract trend and seasonal components. It further integrates a Hybrid Frequency-Time Decomposition module (HFTD) to further decompose Series into frequency-domain and time-domain. These components are coupled with multi-scale Mamba-based KarmaBlock to efficiently process global and local information in a coordinated manner. Experiments on eight real-world datasets from diverse domains well demonstrated that KARMA significantly outperforms mainstream baseline methods in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Code and full results are available at this repository: https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

Cellular automata (CA) provide a minimal formalism for investigating how simple local interactions generate rich spatiotemporal behavior in domains as diverse as traffic flow, ecology, tissue morphogenesis and crystal growth. However, automatically discovering the local update rules for a given phenomenon and using them for quantitative prediction remains challenging. Here we present AutomataGPT, a decoder-only transformer pretrained on around 1 million simulated trajectories that span 100 distinct two-dimensional binary deterministic CA rules on toroidal grids. When evaluated on previously unseen rules drawn from the same CA family, AutomataGPT attains 98.5% perfect one-step forecasts and reconstructs the governing update rule with up to 96% functional (application) accuracy and 82% exact rule-matrix match. These results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining over wider regions of rule space yields substantial generalization in both the forward (state forecasting) and inverse (rule inference) problems, without hand-crafted priors. By showing that transformer models can faithfully infer and execute CA dynamics from data alone, our work lays the groundwork for abstracting real-world dynamical phenomena into data-efficient CA surrogates, opening avenues in biology, tissue engineering, physics and AI-driven scientific discovery.

Classical autonomous driving systems connect perception and prediction modules via hand-crafted bounding-box interfaces, limiting information flow and propagating errors to downstream tasks. Recent research aims to develop end-to-end models that jointly address perception and prediction; however, they often fail to fully exploit the synergy between appearance and motion cues, relying mainly on short-term visual features. We follow the idea of "looking backward to look forward", and propose MASAR, a novel fully differentiable framework for joint 3D detection and trajectory forecasting compatible with any transformer-based 3D detector. MASAR employs an object-centric spatio-temporal mechanism that jointly encodes appearance and motion features. By predicting past trajectories and refining them using guidance from appearance cues, MASAR captures long-term temporal dependencies that enhance future trajectory forecasting. Experiments conducted on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate MASAR's effectiveness, showing improvements of over 20% in minADE and minFDE while maintaining robust detection performance. Code and models are available at https://github.com/aminmed/MASAR.

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales (C=50 and C=200) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

Infectious diseases remain among the top contributors to human illness and death worldwide, among which many diseases produce epidemic waves of infection. The unavailability of specific drugs and ready-to-use vaccines to prevent most of these epidemics makes the situation worse. These force public health officials and policymakers to rely on early warning systems generated by reliable and accurate forecasts of epidemics. Accurate forecasts of epidemics can assist stakeholders in tailoring countermeasures, such as vaccination campaigns, staff scheduling, and resource allocation, to the situation at hand, which could translate to reductions in the impact of a disease. Unfortunately, most of these past epidemics exhibit nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics due to their spreading fluctuations based on seasonal-dependent variability and the nature of these epidemics. We analyse a wide variety of epidemic time series datasets using a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) based autoregressive neural network and call it EWNet model. MODWT techniques effectively characterize non-stationary behavior and seasonal dependencies in the epidemic time series and improve the nonlinear forecasting scheme of the autoregressive neural network in the proposed ensemble wavelet network framework. From a nonlinear time series viewpoint, we explore the asymptotic stationarity of the proposed EWNet model to show the asymptotic behavior of the associated Markov Chain. We also theoretically investigate the effect of learning stability and the choice of hidden neurons in the proposal. From a practical perspective, we compare our proposed EWNet framework with several statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models. Experimental results show that the proposed EWNet is highly competitive compared to the state-of-the-art epidemic forecasting methods.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

We introduce Ego4D, a massive-scale egocentric video dataset and benchmark suite. It offers 3,670 hours of daily-life activity video spanning hundreds of scenarios (household, outdoor, workplace, leisure, etc.) captured by 931 unique camera wearers from 74 worldwide locations and 9 different countries. The approach to collection is designed to uphold rigorous privacy and ethics standards with consenting participants and robust de-identification procedures where relevant. Ego4D dramatically expands the volume of diverse egocentric video footage publicly available to the research community. Portions of the video are accompanied by audio, 3D meshes of the environment, eye gaze, stereo, and/or synchronized videos from multiple egocentric cameras at the same event. Furthermore, we present a host of new benchmark challenges centered around understanding the first-person visual experience in the past (querying an episodic memory), present (analyzing hand-object manipulation, audio-visual conversation, and social interactions), and future (forecasting activities). By publicly sharing this massive annotated dataset and benchmark suite, we aim to push the frontier of first-person perception. Project page: https://ego4d-data.org/

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

How can we predict future interaction trajectories of human hands in a scene given high-level colloquial task specifications in the form of natural language? In this paper, we extend the classic hand trajectory prediction task to two tasks involving explicit or implicit language queries. Our proposed tasks require extensive understanding of human daily activities and reasoning abilities about what should be happening next given cues from the current scene. We also develop new benchmarks to evaluate the proposed two tasks, Vanilla Hand Prediction (VHP) and Reasoning-Based Hand Prediction (RBHP). We enable solving these tasks by integrating high-level world knowledge and reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) with the auto-regressive nature of low-level ego-centric hand trajectories. Our model, HandsOnVLM is a novel VLM that can generate textual responses and produce future hand trajectories through natural-language conversations. Our experiments show that HandsOnVLM outperforms existing task-specific methods and other VLM baselines on proposed tasks, and demonstrates its ability to effectively utilize world knowledge for reasoning about low-level human hand trajectories based on the provided context. Our website contains code and detailed video results https://www.chenbao.tech/handsonvlm/

Although diffusion methods excel in text-to-image generation, generating accurate hand gestures remains a major challenge, resulting in severe artifacts, such as incorrect number of fingers or unnatural gestures. To enable the diffusion model to learn spatial information to improve the quality of the hands generated, we propose HanDrawer, a module to condition the hand generation process. Specifically, we apply graph convolutional layers to extract the endogenous spatial structure and physical constraints implicit in MANO hand mesh vertices. We then align and fuse these spatial features with other modalities via cross-attention. The spatially fused features are used to guide a single stage diffusion model denoising process for high quality generation of the hand region. To improve the accuracy of spatial feature fusion, we propose a Position-Preserving Zero Padding (PPZP) fusion strategy, which ensures that the features extracted by HanDrawer are fused into the region of interest in the relevant layers of the diffusion model. HanDrawer learns the entire image features while paying special attention to the hand region thanks to an additional hand reconstruction loss combined with the denoising loss. To accurately train and evaluate our approach, we perform careful cleansing and relabeling of the widely used HaGRID hand gesture dataset and obtain high quality multimodal data. Quantitative and qualitative analyses demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our method on the HaGRID dataset through multiple evaluation metrics. Source code and our enhanced dataset will be released publicly if the paper is accepted.

Synthesizing human motion has advanced rapidly, yet realistic hand motion and bimanual interaction remain underexplored. Whole-body models often miss the fine-grained cues that drive dexterous behavior, finger articulation, contact timing, and inter-hand coordination, and existing resources lack high-fidelity bimanual sequences that capture nuanced finger dynamics and collaboration. To fill this gap, we present HandX, a unified foundation spanning data, annotation, and evaluation. We consolidate and filter existing datasets for quality, and collect a new motion-capture dataset targeting underrepresented bimanual interactions with detailed finger dynamics. For scalable annotation, we introduce a decoupled strategy that extracts representative motion features, e.g., contact events and finger flexion, and then leverages reasoning from large language models to produce fine-grained, semantically rich descriptions aligned with these features. Building on the resulting data and annotations, we benchmark diffusion and autoregressive models with versatile conditioning modes. Experiments demonstrate high-quality dexterous motion generation, supported by our newly proposed hand-focused metrics. We further observe clear scaling trends: larger models trained on larger, higher-quality datasets produce more semantically coherent bimanual motion. Our dataset is released to support future research.

Hand motion plays a central role in human interaction, yet modeling realistic 4D hand motion (i.e., 3D hand pose sequences over time) remains challenging. Research in this area is typically divided into two tasks: (1) Estimation approaches reconstruct precise motion from visual observations, but often fail under hand occlusion or absence; (2) Generation approaches focus on synthesizing hand poses by exploiting generative priors under multi-modal structured inputs and infilling motion from incomplete sequences. However, this separation not only limits the effective use of heterogeneous condition signals that frequently arise in practice, but also prevents knowledge transfer between the two tasks. We present UniHand, a unified diffusion-based framework that formulates both estimation and generation as conditional motion synthesis. UniHand integrates heterogeneous inputs by embedding structured signals into a shared latent space through a joint variational autoencoder, which aligns conditions such as MANO parameters and 2D skeletons. Visual observations are encoded with a frozen vision backbone, while a dedicated hand perceptron extracts hand-specific cues directly from image features, removing the need for complex detection and cropping pipelines. A latent diffusion model then synthesizes consistent motion sequences from these diverse conditions. Extensive experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that UniHand delivers robust and accurate hand motion modeling, maintaining performance under severe occlusions and temporally incomplete inputs.

Traditional time-series forecasting often focuses only on minimizing prediction errors, ignoring the specific requirements of real-world applications that employ them. This paper presents a new training methodology, which allows a forecasting model to dynamically adjust its focus based on the importance of forecast ranges specified by the end application. Unlike previous methods that fix these ranges beforehand, our training approach breaks down predictions over the entire signal range into smaller segments, which are then dynamically weighted and combined to produce accurate forecasts. We tested our method on standard datasets, including a new dataset from wireless communication, and found that not only it improves prediction accuracy but also improves the performance of end application employing the forecasting model. This research provides a basis for creating forecasting systems that better connect prediction and decision-making in various practical applications.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Recent advancements in control of prosthetic hands have focused on increasing autonomy through the use of cameras and other sensory inputs. These systems aim to reduce the cognitive load on the user by automatically controlling certain degrees of freedom. In robotics, imitation learning has emerged as a promising approach for learning grasping and complex manipulation tasks while simplifying data collection. Its application to the control of prosthetic hands remains, however, largely unexplored. Bridging this gap could enhance dexterity restoration and enable prosthetic devices to operate in more unconstrained scenarios, where tasks are learned from demonstrations rather than relying on manually annotated sequences. To this end, we present HannesImitationPolicy, an imitation learning-based method to control the Hannes prosthetic hand, enabling object grasping in unstructured environments. Moreover, we introduce the HannesImitationDataset comprising grasping demonstrations in table, shelf, and human-to-prosthesis handover scenarios. We leverage such data to train a single diffusion policy and deploy it on the prosthetic hand to predict the wrist orientation and hand closure for grasping. Experimental evaluation demonstrates successful grasps across diverse objects and conditions. Finally, we show that the policy outperforms a segmentation-based visual servo controller in unstructured scenarios. Additional material is provided on our project page: https://hsp-iit.github.io/HannesImitation

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

The ability to grasp objects, signal with gestures, and share emotion through touch all stem from the unique capabilities of human hands. Yet creating high-quality personalized hand avatars from images remains challenging due to complex geometry, appearance, and articulation, particularly under unconstrained lighting and limited views. Progress has also been limited by the lack of datasets that jointly provide accurate 3D geometry, high-resolution multiview imagery, and a diverse population of subjects. To address this, we present PALM, a large-scale dataset comprising 13k high-quality hand scans from 263 subjects and 90k multi-view images, capturing rich variation in skin tone, age, and geometry. To show its utility, we present a baseline PALM-Net, a multi-subject prior over hand geometry and material properties learned via physically based inverse rendering, enabling realistic, relightable single-image hand avatar personalization. PALM's scale and diversity make it a valuable real-world resource for hand modeling and related research.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

The current interacting hand (IH) datasets are relatively simplistic in terms of background and texture, with hand joints being annotated by a machine annotator, which may result in inaccuracies, and the diversity of pose distribution is limited. However, the variability of background, pose distribution, and texture can greatly influence the generalization ability. Therefore, we present a large-scale synthetic dataset RenderIH for interacting hands with accurate and diverse pose annotations. The dataset contains 1M photo-realistic images with varied backgrounds, perspectives, and hand textures. To generate natural and diverse interacting poses, we propose a new pose optimization algorithm. Additionally, for better pose estimation accuracy, we introduce a transformer-based pose estimation network, TransHand, to leverage the correlation between interacting hands and verify the effectiveness of RenderIH in improving results. Our dataset is model-agnostic and can improve more accuracy of any hand pose estimation method in comparison to other real or synthetic datasets. Experiments have shown that pretraining on our synthetic data can significantly decrease the error from 6.76mm to 5.79mm, and our Transhand surpasses contemporary methods. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/adwardlee/RenderIH.

We propose a novel transformer-based framework that reconstructs two high fidelity hands from multi-view RGB images. Unlike existing hand pose estimation methods, where one typically trains a deep network to regress hand model parameters from single RGB image, we consider a more challenging problem setting where we directly regress the absolute root poses of two-hands with extended forearm at high resolution from egocentric view. As existing datasets are either infeasible for egocentric viewpoints or lack background variations, we create a large-scale synthetic dataset with diverse scenarios and collect a real dataset from multi-calibrated camera setup to verify our proposed multi-view image feature fusion strategy. To make the reconstruction physically plausible, we propose two strategies: (i) a coarse-to-fine spectral graph convolution decoder to smoothen the meshes during upsampling and (ii) an optimisation-based refinement stage at inference to prevent self-penetrations. Through extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations, we show that our framework is able to produce realistic two-hand reconstructions and demonstrate the generalisation of synthetic-trained models to real data, as well as real-time AR/VR applications.

Dexterous grasping aims to produce diverse grasping postures with a high grasping success rate. Regression-based methods that directly predict grasping parameters given the object may achieve a high success rate but often lack diversity. Generation-based methods that generate grasping postures conditioned on the object can often produce diverse grasping, but they are insufficient for high grasping success due to lack of discriminative information. To mitigate, we introduce a unified diffusion-based dexterous grasp generation model, dubbed the name UGG, which operates within the object point cloud and hand parameter spaces. Our all-transformer architecture unifies the information from the object, the hand, and the contacts, introducing a novel representation of contact points for improved contact modeling. The flexibility and quality of our model enable the integration of a lightweight discriminator, benefiting from simulated discriminative data, which pushes for a high success rate while preserving high diversity. Beyond grasp generation, our model can also generate objects based on hand information, offering valuable insights into object design and studying how the generative model perceives objects. Our model achieves state-of-the-art dexterous grasping on the large-scale DexGraspNet dataset while facilitating human-centric object design, marking a significant advancement in dexterous grasping research. Our project page is https://jiaxin-lu.github.io/ugg/ .

We propose a novel approach to multi-fingered grasp planning leveraging learned deep neural network models. We train a convolutional neural network to predict grasp success as a function of both visual information of an object and grasp configuration. We can then formulate grasp planning as inferring the grasp configuration which maximizes the probability of grasp success. We efficiently perform this inference using a gradient-ascent optimization inside the neural network using the backpropagation algorithm. Our work is the first to directly plan high quality multifingered grasps in configuration space using a deep neural network without the need of an external planner. We validate our inference method performing both multifinger and two-finger grasps on real robots. Our experimental results show that our planning method outperforms existing planning methods for neural networks; while offering several other benefits including being data-efficient in learning and fast enough to be deployed in real robotic applications.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating realistic images but suffer from generating accurate human hands, such as incorrect finger counts or irregular shapes. This difficulty arises from the complex task of learning the physical structure and pose of hands from training images, which involves extensive deformations and occlusions. For correct hand generation, our paper introduces a lightweight post-processing solution called HandRefiner. HandRefiner employs a conditional inpainting approach to rectify malformed hands while leaving other parts of the image untouched. We leverage the hand mesh reconstruction model that consistently adheres to the correct number of fingers and hand shape, while also being capable of fitting the desired hand pose in the generated image. Given a generated failed image due to malformed hands, we utilize ControlNet modules to re-inject such correct hand information. Additionally, we uncover a phase transition phenomenon within ControlNet as we vary the control strength. It enables us to take advantage of more readily available synthetic data without suffering from the domain gap between realistic and synthetic hands. Experiments demonstrate that HandRefiner can significantly improve the generation quality quantitatively and qualitatively. The code is available at https://github.com/wenquanlu/HandRefiner .

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Hands are essential to human interaction, and understanding contact between hands and the world can promote comprehensive understanding of their function. Recently, there have been growing number of hand interaction datasets that cover interaction with object, other hand, scene, and body. Despite the significance of the task and increasing high-quality data, how to effectively learn dense hand contact estimation remains largely underexplored. There are two major challenges for learning dense hand contact estimation. First, there exists class imbalance issue from hand contact datasets where majority of samples are not in contact. Second, hand contact datasets contain spatial imbalance issue with most of hand contact exhibited in finger tips, resulting in challenges for generalization towards contacts in other hand regions. To tackle these issues, we present a framework that learns dense HAnd COntact estimation (HACO) from imbalanced data. To resolve the class imbalance issue, we introduce balanced contact sampling, which builds and samples from multiple sampling groups that fairly represent diverse contact statistics for both contact and non-contact samples. Moreover, to address the spatial imbalance issue, we propose vertex-level class-balanced (VCB) loss, which incorporates spatially varying contact distribution by separately reweighting loss contribution of each vertex based on its contact frequency across dataset. As a result, we effectively learn to predict dense hand contact estimation with large-scale hand contact data without suffering from class and spatial imbalance issue. The codes will be released.

The task of collaborative human pose forecasting stands for predicting the future poses of multiple interacting people, given those in previous frames. Predicting two people in interaction, instead of each separately, promises better performance, due to their body-body motion correlations. But the task has remained so far primarily unexplored. In this paper, we review the progress in human pose forecasting and provide an in-depth assessment of the single-person practices that perform best for 2-body collaborative motion forecasting. Our study confirms the positive impact of frequency input representations, space-time separable and fully-learnable interaction adjacencies for the encoding GCN and FC decoding. Other single-person practices do not transfer to 2-body, so the proposed best ones do not include hierarchical body modeling or attention-based interaction encoding. We further contribute a novel initialization procedure for the 2-body spatial interaction parameters of the encoder, which benefits performance and stability. Altogether, our proposed 2-body pose forecasting best practices yield a performance improvement of 21.9% over the state-of-the-art on the most recent ExPI dataset, whereby the novel initialization accounts for 3.5%. See our project page at https://www.pinlab.org/bestpractices2body

We propose a novel framework to reconstruct accurate appearance and geometry with neural radiance fields (NeRF) for interacting hands, enabling the rendering of photo-realistic images and videos for gesture animation from arbitrary views. Given multi-view images of a single hand or interacting hands, an off-the-shelf skeleton estimator is first employed to parameterize the hand poses. Then we design a pose-driven deformation field to establish correspondence from those different poses to a shared canonical space, where a pose-disentangled NeRF for one hand is optimized. Such unified modeling efficiently complements the geometry and texture cues in rarely-observed areas for both hands. Meanwhile, we further leverage the pose priors to generate pseudo depth maps as guidance for occlusion-aware density learning. Moreover, a neural feature distillation method is proposed to achieve cross-domain alignment for color optimization. We conduct extensive experiments to verify the merits of our proposed HandNeRF and report a series of state-of-the-art results both qualitatively and quantitatively on the large-scale InterHand2.6M dataset.

3D hand pose estimation methods have made significant progress recently. However, the estimation accuracy is often far from sufficient for specific real-world applications, and thus there is significant room for improvement. This paper proposes TriHorn-Net, a novel model that uses specific innovations to improve hand pose estimation accuracy on depth images. The first innovation is the decomposition of the 3D hand pose estimation into the estimation of 2D joint locations in the depth image space (UV), and the estimation of their corresponding depths aided by two complementary attention maps. This decomposition prevents depth estimation, which is a more difficult task, from interfering with the UV estimations at both the prediction and feature levels. The second innovation is PixDropout, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the first appearance-based data augmentation method for hand depth images. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on three public benchmark datasets. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/mrezaei92/TriHorn-Net.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

Time series forecasting is a foundational task across domains, such as finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. While recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalisation through large-scale pretraining, existing models operate predominantly in a unimodal setting, ignoring the rich multimodal context, such as visual and textual signals, that often accompanies time series data in real-world scenarios. This paper introduces a novel parameter-efficient multimodal framework, UniCast, that extends TSFMs to jointly leverage time series, vision, and text modalities for enhanced forecasting performance. Our method integrates modality-specific embeddings from pretrained Vision and Text Encoders with a frozen TSFM via soft prompt tuning, enabling efficient adaptation with minimal parameter updates. This design not only preserves the generalisation strength of the foundation model but also enables effective cross-modal interaction. Extensive experiments across diverse time-series forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that UniCast consistently and significantly outperforms all existing TSFM baselines. The findings highlight the critical role of multimodal context in advancing the next generation of general-purpose time series forecasters.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.

Recent 4D shape representations model continuous temporal evolution of implicit shapes by (1) learning query flows without leveraging shape and articulation priors or (2) decoding shape occupancies separately for each time value. Thus, they do not effectively capture implicit correspondences between articulated shapes or regularize jittery temporal deformations. In this work, we present FourierHandFlow, which is a spatio-temporally continuous representation for human hands that combines a 3D occupancy field with articulation-aware query flows represented as Fourier series. Given an input RGB sequence, we aim to learn a fixed number of Fourier coefficients for each query flow to guarantee smooth and continuous temporal shape dynamics. To effectively model spatio-temporal deformations of articulated hands, we compose our 4D representation based on two types of Fourier query flow: (1) pose flow that models query dynamics influenced by hand articulation changes via implicit linear blend skinning and (2) shape flow that models query-wise displacement flow. In the experiments, our method achieves state-of-the-art results on video-based 4D reconstruction while being computationally more efficient than the existing 3D/4D implicit shape representations. We additionally show our results on motion inter- and extrapolation and texture transfer using the learned correspondences of implicit shapes. To the best of our knowledge, FourierHandFlow is the first neural 4D continuous hand representation learned from RGB videos. The code will be publicly accessible.

Existing datasets for 3D hand-object interaction are limited either in the data cardinality, data variations in interaction scenarios, or the quality of annotations. In this work, we present a comprehensive new training dataset for hand-object interaction called HOGraspNet. It is the only real dataset that captures full grasp taxonomies, providing grasp annotation and wide intraclass variations. Using grasp taxonomies as atomic actions, their space and time combinatorial can represent complex hand activities around objects. We select 22 rigid objects from the YCB dataset and 8 other compound objects using shape and size taxonomies, ensuring coverage of all hand grasp configurations. The dataset includes diverse hand shapes from 99 participants aged 10 to 74, continuous video frames, and a 1.5M RGB-Depth of sparse frames with annotations. It offers labels for 3D hand and object meshes, 3D keypoints, contact maps, and grasp labels. Accurate hand and object 3D meshes are obtained by fitting the hand parametric model (MANO) and the hand implicit function (HALO) to multi-view RGBD frames, with the MoCap system only for objects. Note that HALO fitting does not require any parameter tuning, enabling scalability to the dataset's size with comparable accuracy to MANO. We evaluate HOGraspNet on relevant tasks: grasp classification and 3D hand pose estimation. The result shows performance variations based on grasp type and object class, indicating the potential importance of the interaction space captured by our dataset. The provided data aims at learning universal shape priors or foundation models for 3D hand-object interaction. Our dataset and code are available at https://hograspnet2024.github.io/.

Recently, there has been a significant amount of research conducted on 3D hand reconstruction to use various forms of human-computer interaction. However, 3D hand reconstruction in the wild is challenging due to extreme lack of in-the-wild 3D hand datasets. Especially, when hands are in complex pose such as interacting hands, the problems like appearance similarity, self-handed occclusion and depth ambiguity make it more difficult. To overcome these issues, we propose AttentionHand, a novel method for text-driven controllable hand image generation. Since AttentionHand can generate various and numerous in-the-wild hand images well-aligned with 3D hand label, we can acquire a new 3D hand dataset, and can relieve the domain gap between indoor and outdoor scenes. Our method needs easy-to-use four modalities (i.e, an RGB image, a hand mesh image from 3D label, a bounding box, and a text prompt). These modalities are embedded into the latent space by the encoding phase. Then, through the text attention stage, hand-related tokens from the given text prompt are attended to highlight hand-related regions of the latent embedding. After the highlighted embedding is fed to the visual attention stage, hand-related regions in the embedding are attended by conditioning global and local hand mesh images with the diffusion-based pipeline. In the decoding phase, the final feature is decoded to new hand images, which are well-aligned with the given hand mesh image and text prompt. As a result, AttentionHand achieved state-of-the-art among text-to-hand image generation models, and the performance of 3D hand mesh reconstruction was improved by additionally training with hand images generated by AttentionHand.

Purpose: Accurate 3D hand pose estimation supports surgical applications such as skill assessment, robot-assisted interventions, and geometry-aware workflow analysis. However, surgical environments pose severe challenges, including intense and localized lighting, frequent occlusions by instruments or staff, and uniform hand appearance due to gloves, combined with a scarcity of annotated datasets for reliable model training. Method: We propose a robust multi-view pipeline for 3D hand pose estimation in surgical contexts that requires no domain-specific fine-tuning and relies solely on off-the-shelf pretrained models. The pipeline integrates reliable person detection, whole-body pose estimation, and state-of-the-art 2D hand keypoint prediction on tracked hand crops, followed by a constrained 3D optimization. In addition, we introduce a novel surgical benchmark dataset comprising over 68,000 frames and 3,000 manually annotated 2D hand poses with triangulated 3D ground truth, recorded in a replica operating room under varying levels of scene complexity. Results: Quantitative experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms baselines, achieving a 31% reduction in 2D mean joint error and a 76% reduction in 3D mean per-joint position error. Conclusion: Our work establishes a strong baseline for 3D hand pose estimation in surgery, providing both a training-free pipeline and a comprehensive annotated dataset to facilitate future research in surgical computer vision.

Hand-object pose estimation (HOPE) aims to jointly detect the poses of both a hand and of a held object. In this paper, we propose a lightweight model called HOPE-Net which jointly estimates hand and object pose in 2D and 3D in real-time. Our network uses a cascade of two adaptive graph convolutional neural networks, one to estimate 2D coordinates of the hand joints and object corners, followed by another to convert 2D coordinates to 3D. Our experiments show that through end-to-end training of the full network, we achieve better accuracy for both the 2D and 3D coordinate estimation problems. The proposed 2D to 3D graph convolution-based model could be applied to other 3D landmark detection problems, where it is possible to first predict the 2D keypoints and then transform them to 3D.

Hands are dexterous and highly versatile manipulators that are central to how humans interact with objects and their environment. Consequently, modeling realistic hand-object interactions, including the subtle motion of individual fingers, is critical for applications in computer graphics, computer vision, and mixed reality. Prior work on capturing and modeling humans interacting with objects in 3D focuses on the body and object motion, often ignoring hand pose. In contrast, we introduce GRIP, a learning-based method that takes, as input, the 3D motion of the body and the object, and synthesizes realistic motion for both hands before, during, and after object interaction. As a preliminary step before synthesizing the hand motion, we first use a network, ANet, to denoise the arm motion. Then, we leverage the spatio-temporal relationship between the body and the object to extract two types of novel temporal interaction cues, and use them in a two-stage inference pipeline to generate the hand motion. In the first stage, we introduce a new approach to enforce motion temporal consistency in the latent space (LTC), and generate consistent interaction motions. In the second stage, GRIP generates refined hand poses to avoid hand-object penetrations. Given sequences of noisy body and object motion, GRIP upgrades them to include hand-object interaction. Quantitative experiments and perceptual studies demonstrate that GRIP outperforms baseline methods and generalizes to unseen objects and motions from different motion-capture datasets.

We present AnyHand, a large-scale synthetic dataset designed to advance the state of the art in 3D hand pose estimation from both RGB-only and RGB-D inputs. While recent works with foundation approaches have shown that an increase in the quantity and diversity of training data can markedly improve performance and robustness in hand pose estimation, existing real-world-collected datasets on this task are limited in coverage, and prior synthetic datasets rarely provide occlusions, arm details, and aligned depth together at scale. To address this bottleneck, our AnyHand contains 2.5M single-hand and 4.1M hand-object interaction RGB-D images, with rich geometric annotations. In the RGB-only setting, we show that extending the original training sets of existing baselines with AnyHand yields significant gains on multiple benchmarks (FreiHAND and HO-3D), even when keeping the architecture and training scheme fixed. More impressively, the model trained with AnyHand shows stronger generalization to the out-of-domain HO-Cap dataset, without any fine-tuning. We also contribute a lightweight depth fusion module that can be easily integrated into existing RGB-based models. Trained with AnyHand, the resulting RGB-D model achieves superior performance on the HO-3D benchmark, showing the benefits of depth integration and the effectiveness of our synthetic data.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

This paper proposes the second version of the widespread Hand Gesture Recognition dataset HaGRID -- HaGRIDv2. We cover 15 new gestures with conversation and control functions, including two-handed ones. Building on the foundational concepts proposed by HaGRID's authors, we implemented the dynamic gesture recognition algorithm and further enhanced it by adding three new groups of manipulation gestures. The ``no gesture" class was diversified by adding samples of natural hand movements, which allowed us to minimize false positives by 6 times. Combining extra samples with HaGRID, the received version outperforms the original in pre-training models for gesture-related tasks. Besides, we achieved the best generalization ability among gesture and hand detection datasets. In addition, the second version enhances the quality of the gestures generated by the diffusion model. HaGRIDv2, pre-trained models, and a dynamic gesture recognition algorithm are publicly available.

Global human motion forecasting is important in many fields, which is the combination of global human trajectory prediction and local human pose prediction. Visual and social information are often used to boost model performance, however, they may consume too much computational resource. In this paper, we establish a simple but effective baseline for single human motion forecasting without visual and social information, equipped with useful training tricks. Our method "futuremotion_ICCV21" outperforms existing methods by a large margin on SoMoF benchmark. We hope our work provide new ideas for future research.

The focus of this paper is dynamic gesture recognition in the context of the interaction between humans and machines. We propose a model consisting of two sub-networks, a transformer and an ordered-neuron long-short-term-memory (ON-LSTM) based recurrent neural network (RNN). Each sub-network is trained to perform the task of gesture recognition using only skeleton joints. Since each sub-network extracts different types of features due to the difference in architecture, the knowledge can be shared between the sub-networks. Through knowledge distillation, the features and predictions from each sub-network are fused together into a new fusion classifier. In addition, a cyclical learning rate can be used to generate a series of models that are combined in an ensemble, in order to yield a more generalizable prediction. The proposed ensemble of knowledge-sharing models exhibits an overall accuracy of 86.11% using only skeleton information, as tested using the Dynamic Hand Gesture-14/28 dataset

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Although diffusion-based image virtual try-on has made considerable progress, emerging approaches still struggle to effectively address the issue of hand occlusion (i.e., clothing regions occluded by the hand part), leading to a notable degradation of the try-on performance. To tackle this issue widely existing in real-world scenarios, we propose VTON-HandFit, leveraging the power of hand priors to reconstruct the appearance and structure for hand occlusion cases. Firstly, we tailor a Handpose Aggregation Net using the ControlNet-based structure explicitly and adaptively encoding the global hand and pose priors. Besides, to fully exploit the hand-related structure and appearance information, we propose Hand-feature Disentanglement Embedding module to disentangle the hand priors into the hand structure-parametric and visual-appearance features, and customize a masked cross attention for further decoupled feature embedding. Lastly, we customize a hand-canny constraint loss to better learn the structure edge knowledge from the hand template of model image. VTON-HandFit outperforms the baselines in qualitative and quantitative evaluations on the public dataset and our self-collected hand-occlusion Handfit-3K dataset particularly for the arbitrary hand pose occlusion cases in real-world scenarios. The Code and dataset will be available at https://github.com/VTON-HandFit/VTON-HandFit.

Hand avatars play a pivotal role in a wide array of digital interfaces, enhancing user immersion and facilitating natural interaction within virtual environments. While previous studies have focused on photo-realistic hand rendering, little attention has been paid to reconstruct the hand geometry with fine details, which is essential to rendering quality. In the realms of extended reality and gaming, on-the-fly rendering becomes imperative. To this end, we introduce an expressive hand avatar, named XHand, that is designed to comprehensively generate hand shape, appearance, and deformations in real-time. To obtain fine-grained hand meshes, we make use of three feature embedding modules to predict hand deformation displacements, albedo, and linear blending skinning weights, respectively. To achieve photo-realistic hand rendering on fine-grained meshes, our method employs a mesh-based neural renderer by leveraging mesh topological consistency and latent codes from embedding modules. During training, a part-aware Laplace smoothing strategy is proposed by incorporating the distinct levels of regularization to effectively maintain the necessary details and eliminate the undesired artifacts. The experimental evaluations on InterHand2.6M and DeepHandMesh datasets demonstrate the efficacy of XHand, which is able to recover high-fidelity geometry and texture for hand animations across diverse poses in real-time. To reproduce our results, we will make the full implementation publicly available at https://github.com/agnJason/XHand.

The human hand is the main medium through which we interact with our surroundings, making its digitization an important problem. While there are several works modeling the geometry of hands, little attention has been paid to capturing photo-realistic appearance. Moreover, for applications in extended reality and gaming, real-time rendering is critical. We present the first neural-implicit approach to photo-realistically render hands in real-time. This is a challenging problem as hands are textured and undergo strong articulations with pose-dependent effects. However, we show that this aim is achievable through our carefully designed method. This includes training on a low-resolution rendering of a neural radiance field, together with a 3D-consistent super-resolution module and mesh-guided sampling and space canonicalization. We demonstrate a novel application of perceptual loss on the image space, which is critical for learning details accurately. We also show a live demo where we photo-realistically render the human hand in real-time for the first time, while also modeling pose- and view-dependent appearance effects. We ablate all our design choices and show that they optimize for rendering speed and quality. Video results and our code can be accessed from https://vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/LiveHand/

Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), but have not yet surpassed conventional models at subseasonal timescales. This paper introduces FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, encompassing five upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S, trained on 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, outperforms the ECMWF's state-of-the-art Subseasonal-to-Seasonal model in ensemble mean and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, notably enhancing global precipitation forecast. The improved performance of FuXi-S2S can be primarily attributed to its superior capability to capture forecast uncertainty and accurately predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), extending the skillful MJO prediction from 30 days to 36 days. Moreover, FuXi-S2S not only captures realistic teleconnections associated with the MJO, but also emerges as a valuable tool for discovering precursor signals, offering researchers insights and potentially establishing a new paradigm in Earth system science research.

Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.

Recent successes in image synthesis are powered by large-scale diffusion models. However, most methods are currently limited to either text- or image-conditioned generation for synthesizing an entire image, texture transfer or inserting objects into a user-specified region. In contrast, in this work we focus on synthesizing complex interactions (ie, an articulated hand) with a given object. Given an RGB image of an object, we aim to hallucinate plausible images of a human hand interacting with it. We propose a two-step generative approach: a LayoutNet that samples an articulation-agnostic hand-object-interaction layout, and a ContentNet that synthesizes images of a hand grasping the object given the predicted layout. Both are built on top of a large-scale pretrained diffusion model to make use of its latent representation. Compared to baselines, the proposed method is shown to generalize better to novel objects and perform surprisingly well on out-of-distribution in-the-wild scenes of portable-sized objects. The resulting system allows us to predict descriptive affordance information, such as hand articulation and approaching orientation. Project page: https://judyye.github.io/affordiffusion-www

Human hands possess the dexterity to interact with diverse objects such as grasping specific parts of the objects and/or approaching them from desired directions. More importantly, humans can grasp objects of any shape without object-specific skills. Recent works synthesize grasping motions following single objectives such as a desired approach heading direction or a grasping area. Moreover, they usually rely on expensive 3D hand-object data during training and inference, which limits their capability to synthesize grasping motions for unseen objects at scale. In this paper, we unify the generation of hand-object grasping motions across multiple motion objectives, diverse object shapes and dexterous hand morphologies in a policy learning framework GraspXL. The objectives are composed of the graspable area, heading direction during approach, wrist rotation, and hand position. Without requiring any 3D hand-object interaction data, our policy trained with 58 objects can robustly synthesize diverse grasping motions for more than 500k unseen objects with a success rate of 82.2%. At the same time, the policy adheres to objectives, which enables the generation of diverse grasps per object. Moreover, we show that our framework can be deployed to different dexterous hands and work with reconstructed or generated objects. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate our method to show the efficacy of our approach. Our model, code, and the large-scale generated motions are available at https://eth-ait.github.io/graspxl/.

Modeling the hand-object (HO) interaction not only requires estimation of the HO pose, but also pays attention to the contact due to their interaction. Significant progress has been made in estimating hand and object separately with deep learning methods, simultaneous HO pose estimation and contact modeling has not yet been fully explored. In this paper, we present an explicit contact representation namely Contact Potential Field (CPF), and a learning-fitting hybrid framework namely MIHO to Modeling the Interaction of Hand and Object. In CPF, we treat each contacting HO vertex pair as a spring-mass system. Hence the whole system forms a potential field with minimal elastic energy at the grasp position. Extensive experiments on the two commonly used benchmarks have demonstrated that our method can achieve state-of-the-art in several reconstruction metrics, and allow us to produce more physically plausible HO pose even when the ground-truth exhibits severe interpenetration or disjointedness. Our code is available at https://github.com/lixiny/CPF.

Our hands serve as a fundamental means of interaction with the world around us. Therefore, understanding hand poses and interaction context is critical for human-computer interaction. We present EchoWrist, a low-power wristband that continuously estimates 3D hand pose and recognizes hand-object interactions using active acoustic sensing. EchoWrist is equipped with two speakers emitting inaudible sound waves toward the hand. These sound waves interact with the hand and its surroundings through reflections and diffractions, carrying rich information about the hand's shape and the objects it interacts with. The information captured by the two microphones goes through a deep learning inference system that recovers hand poses and identifies various everyday hand activities. Results from the two 12-participant user studies show that EchoWrist is effective and efficient at tracking 3D hand poses and recognizing hand-object interactions. Operating at 57.9mW, EchoWrist is able to continuously reconstruct 20 3D hand joints with MJEDE of 4.81mm and recognize 12 naturalistic hand-object interactions with 97.6% accuracy.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

Despite remarkable progress in image generation models, generating realistic hands remains a persistent challenge due to their complex articulation, varying viewpoints, and frequent occlusions. We present FoundHand, a large-scale domain-specific diffusion model for synthesizing single and dual hand images. To train our model, we introduce FoundHand-10M, a large-scale hand dataset with 2D keypoints and segmentation mask annotations. Our insight is to use 2D hand keypoints as a universal representation that encodes both hand articulation and camera viewpoint. FoundHand learns from image pairs to capture physically plausible hand articulations, natively enables precise control through 2D keypoints, and supports appearance control. Our model exhibits core capabilities that include the ability to repose hands, transfer hand appearance, and even synthesize novel views. This leads to zero-shot capabilities for fixing malformed hands in previously generated images, or synthesizing hand video sequences. We present extensive experiments and evaluations that demonstrate state-of-the-art performance of our method.

We present InterHandGen, a novel framework that learns the generative prior of two-hand interaction. Sampling from our model yields plausible and diverse two-hand shapes in close interaction with or without an object. Our prior can be incorporated into any optimization or learning methods to reduce ambiguity in an ill-posed setup. Our key observation is that directly modeling the joint distribution of multiple instances imposes high learning complexity due to its combinatorial nature. Thus, we propose to decompose the modeling of joint distribution into the modeling of factored unconditional and conditional single instance distribution. In particular, we introduce a diffusion model that learns the single-hand distribution unconditional and conditional to another hand via conditioning dropout. For sampling, we combine anti-penetration and classifier-free guidance to enable plausible generation. Furthermore, we establish the rigorous evaluation protocol of two-hand synthesis, where our method significantly outperforms baseline generative models in terms of plausibility and diversity. We also demonstrate that our diffusion prior can boost the performance of two-hand reconstruction from monocular in-the-wild images, achieving new state-of-the-art accuracy.

Hand-object interaction (HOI) is fundamental for humans to express intent. Existing HOI generation research is predominantly confined to fixed grasping patterns, where control is tied to physical priors such as force closure or generic intent instructions, even when expressed through elaborate language. Such an overly general conditioning imposes a strong inductive bias for stable grasps, thus failing to capture the diversity of daily HOI. To address these limitations, we introduce Free-Form HOI Generation, which aims to generate controllable, diverse, and physically plausible HOI conditioned on fine-grained intent, extending HOI from grasping to free-form interactions, like pushing, poking, and rotating. To support this task, we construct WildO2, an in-the-wild diverse 3D HOI dataset, which includes diverse HOI derived from internet videos. Specifically, it contains 4.4k unique interactions across 92 intents and 610 object categories, each with detailed semantic annotations. Building on this dataset, we propose TOUCH, a three-stage framework centered on a multi-level diffusion model that facilitates fine-grained semantic control to generate versatile hand poses beyond grasping priors. This process leverages explicit contact modeling for conditioning and is subsequently refined with contact consistency and physical constraints to ensure realism. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate our method's ability to generate controllable, diverse, and physically plausible hand interactions representative of daily activities. The project page is https://guangyid.github.io/hoi123touch{here}.

Task-based behavioral biometric authentication of users interacting in virtual reality (VR) environments enables seamless continuous authentication by using only the motion trajectories of the person's body as a unique signature. Deep learning-based approaches for behavioral biometrics show high accuracy when using complete or near complete portions of the user trajectory, but show lower performance when using smaller segments from the start of the task. Thus, any systems designed with existing techniques are vulnerable while waiting for future segments of motion trajectories to become available. In this work, we present the first approach that predicts future user behavior using Transformer-based forecasting and using the forecasted trajectory to perform user authentication. Our work leverages the notion that given the current trajectory of a user in a task-based environment we can predict the future trajectory of the user as they are unlikely to dramatically shift their behavior since it would preclude the user from successfully completing their task goal. Using the publicly available 41-subject ball throwing dataset of Miller et al. we show improvement in user authentication when using forecasted data. When compared to no forecasting, our approach reduces the authentication equal error rate (EER) by an average of 23.85% and a maximum reduction of 36.14%.

In this paper, we introduce an enormous dataset HaGRID (HAnd Gesture Recognition Image Dataset) for hand gesture recognition (HGR) systems. This dataset contains 552,992 samples divided into 18 classes of gestures. The annotations consist of bounding boxes of hands with gesture labels and markups of leading hands. The proposed dataset allows for building HGR systems, which can be used in video conferencing services, home automation systems, the automotive sector, services for people with speech and hearing impairments, etc. We are especially focused on interaction with devices to manage them. That is why all 18 chosen gestures are functional, familiar to the majority of people, and may be an incentive to take some action. In addition, we used crowdsourcing platforms to collect the dataset and took into account various parameters to ensure data diversity. We describe the challenges of using existing HGR datasets for our task and provide a detailed overview of them. Furthermore, the baselines for the hand detection and gesture classification tasks are proposed.

We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.

Hand tracking is a critical component of natural user interactions in extended reality (XR) environments, including extended reality musical instruments (XRMIs). However, self-occlusion remains a significant challenge for vision-based hand tracking systems, leading to inaccurate results and degraded user experiences. In this paper, we propose a multimodal hand tracking system that combines vision-based hand tracking with surface electromyography (sEMG) data for finger joint angle estimation. We validate the effectiveness of our system through a series of hand pose tasks designed to cover a wide range of gestures, including those prone to self-occlusion. By comparing the performance of our multimodal system to a baseline vision-based tracking method, we demonstrate that our multimodal approach significantly improves tracking accuracy for several finger joints prone to self-occlusion. These findings suggest that our system has the potential to enhance XR experiences by providing more accurate and robust hand tracking, even in the presence of self-occlusion.

In this paper, we delve into the creation of one-shot hand avatars, attaining high-fidelity and drivable hand representations swiftly from a single image. With the burgeoning domains of the digital human, the need for quick and personalized hand avatar creation has become increasingly critical. Existing techniques typically require extensive input data and may prove cumbersome or even impractical in certain scenarios. To enhance accessibility, we present a novel method OHTA (One-shot Hand avaTAr) that enables the creation of detailed hand avatars from merely one image. OHTA tackles the inherent difficulties of this data-limited problem by learning and utilizing data-driven hand priors. Specifically, we design a hand prior model initially employed for 1) learning various hand priors with available data and subsequently for 2) the inversion and fitting of the target identity with prior knowledge. OHTA demonstrates the capability to create high-fidelity hand avatars with consistent animatable quality, solely relying on a single image. Furthermore, we illustrate the versatility of OHTA through diverse applications, encompassing text-to-avatar conversion, hand editing, and identity latent space manipulation.

This paper introduces PoseLess, a novel framework for robot hand control that eliminates the need for explicit pose estimation by directly mapping 2D images to joint angles using projected representations. Our approach leverages synthetic training data generated through randomized joint configurations, enabling zero-shot generalization to real-world scenarios and cross-morphology transfer from robotic to human hands. By projecting visual inputs and employing a transformer-based decoder, PoseLess achieves robust, low-latency control while addressing challenges such as depth ambiguity and data scarcity. Experimental results demonstrate competitive performance in joint angle prediction accuracy without relying on any human-labelled dataset.

In recent years, 3D hand pose estimation methods have garnered significant attention due to their extensive applications in human-computer interaction, virtual reality, and robotics. In contrast, there has been a notable gap in hand detection pipelines, posing significant challenges in constructing effective real-world multi-hand reconstruction systems. In this work, we present a data-driven pipeline for efficient multi-hand reconstruction in the wild. The proposed pipeline is composed of two components: a real-time fully convolutional hand localization and a high-fidelity transformer-based 3D hand reconstruction model. To tackle the limitations of previous methods and build a robust and stable detection network, we introduce a large-scale dataset with over than 2M in-the-wild hand images with diverse lighting, illumination, and occlusion conditions. Our approach outperforms previous methods in both efficiency and accuracy on popular 2D and 3D benchmarks. Finally, we showcase the effectiveness of our pipeline to achieve smooth 3D hand tracking from monocular videos, without utilizing any temporal components. Code, models, and dataset are available https://rolpotamias.github.io/WiLoR.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Egocentric interactive world models are essential for augmented reality and embodied AI, where visual generation must respond to user input with low latency, geometric consistency, and long-term stability. We study egocentric interaction generation from a single scene image under free-space hand gestures, aiming to synthesize photorealistic videos in which hands enter the scene, interact with objects, and induce plausible world dynamics under head motion. This setting introduces fundamental challenges, including distribution shift between free-space gestures and contact-heavy training data, ambiguity between hand motion and camera motion in monocular views, and the need for arbitrary-length video generation. We present Hand2World, a unified autoregressive framework that addresses these challenges through occlusion-invariant hand conditioning based on projected 3D hand meshes, allowing visibility and occlusion to be inferred from scene context rather than encoded in the control signal. To stabilize egocentric viewpoint changes, we inject explicit camera geometry via per-pixel Plücker-ray embeddings, disentangling camera motion from hand motion and preventing background drift. We further develop a fully automated monocular annotation pipeline and distill a bidirectional diffusion model into a causal generator, enabling arbitrary-length synthesis. Experiments on three egocentric interaction benchmarks show substantial improvements in perceptual quality and 3D consistency while supporting camera control and long-horizon interactive generation.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Most existing forecasting systems are memory-based methods, which attempt to mimic human forecasting ability by employing various memory mechanisms and have progressed in temporal modeling for memory dependency. Nevertheless, an obvious weakness of this paradigm is that it can only model limited historical dependence and can not transcend the past. In this paper, we rethink the temporal dependence of event evolution and propose a novel memory-anticipation-based paradigm to model an entire temporal structure, including the past, present, and future. Based on this idea, we present Memory-and-Anticipation Transformer (MAT), a memory-anticipation-based approach, to address the online action detection and anticipation tasks. In addition, owing to the inherent superiority of MAT, it can process online action detection and anticipation tasks in a unified manner. The proposed MAT model is tested on four challenging benchmarks TVSeries, THUMOS'14, HDD, and EPIC-Kitchens-100, for online action detection and anticipation tasks, and it significantly outperforms all existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Echo0125/Memory-and-Anticipation-Transformer.

Accurate hand pose estimation is vital in robotics, advancing dexterous manipulation in human-computer interaction. Toward this goal, this paper presents ReJSHand (which stands for Refined Joint and Skeleton Features), a cutting-edge network formulated for real-time hand pose estimation and mesh reconstruction. The proposed framework is designed to accurately predict 3D hand gestures under real-time constraints, which is essential for systems that demand agile and responsive hand motion tracking. The network's design prioritizes computational efficiency without compromising accuracy, a prerequisite for instantaneous robotic interactions. Specifically, ReJSHand comprises a 2D keypoint generator, a 3D keypoint generator, an expansion block, and a feature interaction block for meticulously reconstructing 3D hand poses from 2D imagery. In addition, the multi-head self-attention mechanism and a coordinate attention layer enhance feature representation, streamlining the creation of hand mesh vertices through sophisticated feature mapping and linear transformation. Regarding performance, comprehensive evaluations on the FreiHand dataset demonstrate ReJSHand's computational prowess. It achieves a frame rate of 72 frames per second while maintaining a PA-MPJPE (Position-Accurate Mean Per Joint Position Error) of 6.3 mm and a PA-MPVPE (Position-Accurate Mean Per Vertex Position Error) of 6.4 mm. Moreover, our model reaches scores of 0.756 for F@05 and 0.984 for F@15, surpassing modern pipelines and solidifying its position at the forefront of robotic hand pose estimators. To facilitate future studies, we provide our source code at ~https://github.com/daishipeng/ReJSHand.

Understanding the fine-grained articulation of human hands is critical in high-stakes settings such as robot-assisted surgery, chip manufacturing, and AR/VR-based human-AI interaction. Despite achieving near-human performance on general vision-language benchmarks, current vision-language models (VLMs) struggle with fine-grained spatial reasoning, especially in interpreting complex and articulated hand poses. We introduce HandVQA, a large-scale diagnostic benchmark designed to evaluate VLMs' understanding of detailed hand anatomy through visual question answering. Built upon high-quality 3D hand datasets (FreiHAND, InterHand2.6M, FPHA), our benchmark includes over 1.6M controlled multiple-choice questions that probe spatial relationships between hand joints, such as angles, distances, and relative positions. We evaluate several state-of-the-art VLMs (LLaVA, DeepSeek and Qwen-VL) in both base and fine-tuned settings, using lightweight fine-tuning via LoRA. Our findings reveal systematic limitations in current models, including hallucinated finger parts, incorrect geometric interpretations, and poor generalization. HandVQA not only exposes these critical reasoning gaps but provides a validated path to improvement. We demonstrate that the 3D-grounded spatial knowledge learned from our benchmark transfers in a zero-shot setting, significantly improving accuracy of model on novel downstream tasks like hand gesture recognition (+10.33%) and hand-object interaction (+2.63%).

We present ArtiGrasp, a novel method to synthesize bi-manual hand-object interactions that include grasping and articulation. This task is challenging due to the diversity of the global wrist motions and the precise finger control that are necessary to articulate objects. ArtiGrasp leverages reinforcement learning and physics simulations to train a policy that controls the global and local hand pose. Our framework unifies grasping and articulation within a single policy guided by a single hand pose reference. Moreover, to facilitate the training of the precise finger control required for articulation, we present a learning curriculum with increasing difficulty. It starts with single-hand manipulation of stationary objects and continues with multi-agent training including both hands and non-stationary objects. To evaluate our method, we introduce Dynamic Object Grasping and Articulation, a task that involves bringing an object into a target articulated pose. This task requires grasping, relocation, and articulation. We show our method's efficacy towards this task. We further demonstrate that our method can generate motions with noisy hand-object pose estimates from an off-the-shelf image-based regressor.

The proliferation of XR devices has made egocentric hand pose estimation a vital task, yet this perspective is inherently challenged by frequent finger occlusions. To address this, we propose a novel approach that leverages the rich information in dorsal hand skin deformation, unlocked by recent advances in dense visual featurizers. We introduce a dual-stream delta encoder that learns pose by contrasting features from a dynamic hand with a baseline relaxed position. Our evaluation demonstrates that, using only cropped dorsal images, our method reduces the Mean Per Joint Angle Error (MPJAE) by 18% in self-occluded scenarios (fingers >= 50% occluded) compared to state-of-the-art techniques that depend on the whole hand's geometry and large model backbones. Consequently, our method not only enhances the reliability of downstream tasks like index finger pinch and tap estimation in occluded scenarios but also unlocks new interaction paradigms, such as detecting isometric force for a surface "click" without visible movement while minimizing model size.

Recent advancements in 3D hand pose estimation have shown promising results, but its effectiveness has primarily relied on the availability of large-scale annotated datasets, the creation of which is a laborious and costly process. To alleviate the label-hungry limitation, we propose a self-supervised learning framework, HaMuCo, that learns a single-view hand pose estimator from multi-view pseudo 2D labels. However, one of the main challenges of self-supervised learning is the presence of noisy labels and the ``groupthink'' effect from multiple views. To overcome these issues, we introduce a cross-view interaction network that distills the single-view estimator by utilizing the cross-view correlated features and enforcing multi-view consistency to achieve collaborative learning. Both the single-view estimator and the cross-view interaction network are trained jointly in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experiments show that our method can achieve state-of-the-art performance on multi-view self-supervised hand pose estimation. Furthermore, the proposed cross-view interaction network can also be applied to hand pose estimation from multi-view input and outperforms previous methods under the same settings.

Humans move their hands and bodies together to communicate and solve tasks. Capturing and replicating such coordinated activity is critical for virtual characters that behave realistically. Surprisingly, most methods treat the 3D modeling and tracking of bodies and hands separately. Here we formulate a model of hands and bodies interacting together and fit it to full-body 4D sequences. When scanning or capturing the full body in 3D, hands are small and often partially occluded, making their shape and pose hard to recover. To cope with low-resolution, occlusion, and noise, we develop a new model called MANO (hand Model with Articulated and Non-rigid defOrmations). MANO is learned from around 1000 high-resolution 3D scans of hands of 31 subjects in a wide variety of hand poses. The model is realistic, low-dimensional, captures non-rigid shape changes with pose, is compatible with standard graphics packages, and can fit any human hand. MANO provides a compact mapping from hand poses to pose blend shape corrections and a linear manifold of pose synergies. We attach MANO to a standard parameterized 3D body shape model (SMPL), resulting in a fully articulated body and hand model (SMPL+H). We illustrate SMPL+H by fitting complex, natural, activities of subjects captured with a 4D scanner. The fitting is fully automatic and results in full body models that move naturally with detailed hand motions and a realism not seen before in full body performance capture. The models and data are freely available for research purposes in our website (http://mano.is.tue.mpg.de).

This report reviews recent advancements in human motion prediction, reconstruction, and generation. Human motion prediction focuses on forecasting future poses and movements from historical data, addressing challenges like nonlinear dynamics, occlusions, and motion style variations. Reconstruction aims to recover accurate 3D human body movements from visual inputs, often leveraging transformer-based architectures, diffusion models, and physical consistency losses to handle noise and complex poses. Motion generation synthesizes realistic and diverse motions from action labels, textual descriptions, or environmental constraints, with applications in robotics, gaming, and virtual avatars. Additionally, text-to-motion generation and human-object interaction modeling have gained attention, enabling fine-grained and context-aware motion synthesis for augmented reality and robotics. This review highlights key methodologies, datasets, challenges, and future research directions driving progress in these fields.

In this paper we introduce a large-scale hand pose dataset, collected using a novel capture method. Existing datasets are either generated synthetically or captured using depth sensors: synthetic datasets exhibit a certain level of appearance difference from real depth images, and real datasets are limited in quantity and coverage, mainly due to the difficulty to annotate them. We propose a tracking system with six 6D magnetic sensors and inverse kinematics to automatically obtain 21-joints hand pose annotations of depth maps captured with minimal restriction on the range of motion. The capture protocol aims to fully cover the natural hand pose space. As shown in embedding plots, the new dataset exhibits a significantly wider and denser range of hand poses compared to existing benchmarks. Current state-of-the-art methods are evaluated on the dataset, and we demonstrate significant improvements in cross-benchmark performance. We also show significant improvements in egocentric hand pose estimation with a CNN trained on the new dataset.

We hand the community HAND, a simple and time-efficient method for teaching robots new manipulation tasks through human hand demonstrations. Instead of relying on task-specific robot demonstrations collected via teleoperation, HAND uses easy-to-provide hand demonstrations to retrieve relevant behaviors from task-agnostic robot play data. Using a visual tracking pipeline, HAND extracts the motion of the human hand from the hand demonstration and retrieves robot sub-trajectories in two stages: first filtering by visual similarity, then retrieving trajectories with similar behaviors to the hand. Fine-tuning a policy on the retrieved data enables real-time learning of tasks in under four minutes, without requiring calibrated cameras or detailed hand pose estimation. Experiments also show that HAND outperforms retrieval baselines by over 2x in average task success rates on real robots. Videos can be found at our project website: https://liralab.usc.edu/handretrieval/.

Low-cost consumer depth cameras and deep learning have enabled reasonable 3D hand pose estimation from single depth images. In this paper, we present an approach that estimates 3D hand pose from regular RGB images. This task has far more ambiguities due to the missing depth information. To this end, we propose a deep network that learns a network-implicit 3D articulation prior. Together with detected keypoints in the images, this network yields good estimates of the 3D pose. We introduce a large scale 3D hand pose dataset based on synthetic hand models for training the involved networks. Experiments on a variety of test sets, including one on sign language recognition, demonstrate the feasibility of 3D hand pose estimation on single color images.

Purpose. We present an approach for forecasting mental health conditions and emotions of a given population during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina based on language expressions used in social media. This approach permits anticipating high prevalence periods in short- to medium-term time horizons. Design. Mental health conditions and emotions are captured via markers, which link social media contents with lexicons. First, we build descriptive timelines for decision makers to monitor the evolution of markers, and their correlation with crisis events. Second, we model the timelines as time series, and support their forecasting, which in turn serve to identify high prevalence points for the estimated markers. Findings. Results showed that different time series forecasting strategies offer different capabilities. In the best scenario, the emergence of high prevalence periods of emotions and mental health disorders can be satisfactorily predicted with a neural network strategy, even when limited data is available in early stages of a crisis (e.g., 7 days). Originality. Although there have been efforts in the literature to predict mental states of individuals, the analysis of mental health at the collective level has received scarce attention. We take a step forward by proposing a forecasting approach for analyzing the mental health of a given population (or group of individuals) at a larger scale. Practical implications. We believe that this work contributes to a better understanding of how psychological processes related to crisis manifest in social media, being a valuable asset for the design, implementation and monitoring of health prevention and communication policies.

In this study, we present an model-based approach to recognize full 26 degrees of freedom of a human hand. Input data include RGB-D images acquired from a Kinect camera and a 3D model of the hand constructed from its anatomy and graphical matrices. A cost function is then defined so that its minimum value is achieved when the model and observation images are matched. To solve the optimization problem in 26 dimensional space, the particle swarm optimization algorimth with improvements are used. In addition, parallel computation in graphical processing units (GPU) is utilized to handle computationally expensive tasks. Simulation and experimental results show that the system can recognize 26 degrees of freedom of hands with the processing time of 0.8 seconds per frame. The algorithm is robust to noise and the hardware requirement is simple with a single camera.

Language-driven dexterous grasp generation requires the models to understand task semantics, 3D geometry, and complex hand-object interactions. While vision-language models have been applied to this problem, existing approaches directly map observations to grasp parameters without intermediate reasoning about physical interactions. We present DextER, Dexterous Grasp Generation with Embodied Reasoning, which introduces contact-based embodied reasoning for multi-finger manipulation. Our key insight is that predicting which hand links contact where on the object surface provides an embodiment-aware intermediate representation bridging task semantics with physical constraints. DextER autoregressively generates embodied contact tokens specifying which finger links contact where on the object surface, followed by grasp tokens encoding the hand configuration. On DexGYS, DextER achieves 67.14% success rate, outperforming state-of-the-art by 3.83%p with 96.4% improvement in intention alignment. We also demonstrate steerable generation through partial contact specification, providing fine-grained control over grasp synthesis.

Accurately estimating 3D hand pose is crucial for understanding how humans interact with the world. Despite remarkable progress, existing methods often struggle to generate plausible hand poses when the hand is heavily occluded or blurred. In videos, the movements of the hand allow us to observe various parts of the hand that may be occluded or blurred in a single frame. To adaptively leverage the visual clue before and after the occlusion or blurring for robust hand pose estimation, we propose the Deformer: a framework that implicitly reasons about the relationship between hand parts within the same image (spatial dimension) and different timesteps (temporal dimension). We show that a naive application of the transformer self-attention mechanism is not sufficient because motion blur or occlusions in certain frames can lead to heavily distorted hand features and generate imprecise keys and queries. To address this challenge, we incorporate a Dynamic Fusion Module into Deformer, which predicts the deformation of the hand and warps the hand mesh predictions from nearby frames to explicitly support the current frame estimation. Furthermore, we have observed that errors are unevenly distributed across different hand parts, with vertices around fingertips having disproportionately higher errors than those around the palm. We mitigate this issue by introducing a new loss function called maxMSE that automatically adjusts the weight of every vertex to focus the model on critical hand parts. Extensive experiments show that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 10%, and is more robust to occlusions (over 14%).

We present a real-time on-device hand tracking pipeline that predicts hand skeleton from single RGB camera for AR/VR applications. The pipeline consists of two models: 1) a palm detector, 2) a hand landmark model. It's implemented via MediaPipe, a framework for building cross-platform ML solutions. The proposed model and pipeline architecture demonstrates real-time inference speed on mobile GPUs and high prediction quality. MediaPipe Hands is open sourced at https://mediapipe.dev.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

We present an approach that can reconstruct hands in 3D from monocular input. Our approach for Hand Mesh Recovery, HaMeR, follows a fully transformer-based architecture and can analyze hands with significantly increased accuracy and robustness compared to previous work. The key to HaMeR's success lies in scaling up both the data used for training and the capacity of the deep network for hand reconstruction. For training data, we combine multiple datasets that contain 2D or 3D hand annotations. For the deep model, we use a large scale Vision Transformer architecture. Our final model consistently outperforms the previous baselines on popular 3D hand pose benchmarks. To further evaluate the effect of our design in non-controlled settings, we annotate existing in-the-wild datasets with 2D hand keypoint annotations. On this newly collected dataset of annotations, HInt, we demonstrate significant improvements over existing baselines. We make our code, data and models available on the project website: https://geopavlakos.github.io/hamer/.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

Hand, the bearer of human productivity and intelligence, is receiving much attention due to the recent fever of digital twins. Among different hand morphable models, MANO has been widely used in vision and graphics community. However, MANO disregards textures and accessories, which largely limits its power to synthesize photorealistic hand data. In this paper, we extend MANO with Diverse Accessories and Rich Textures, namely DART. DART is composed of 50 daily 3D accessories which varies in appearance and shape, and 325 hand-crafted 2D texture maps covers different kinds of blemishes or make-ups. Unity GUI is also provided to generate synthetic hand data with user-defined settings, e.g., pose, camera, background, lighting, textures, and accessories. Finally, we release DARTset, which contains large-scale (800K), high-fidelity synthetic hand images, paired with perfect-aligned 3D labels. Experiments demonstrate its superiority in diversity. As a complement to existing hand datasets, DARTset boosts the generalization in both hand pose estimation and mesh recovery tasks. Raw ingredients (textures, accessories), Unity GUI, source code and DARTset are publicly available at dart2022.github.io

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Predicting trends in stock market prices has been an area of interest for researchers for many years due to its complex and dynamic nature. Intrinsic volatility in stock market across the globe makes the task of prediction challenging. Forecasting and diffusion modeling, although effective can't be the panacea to the diverse range of problems encountered in prediction, short-term or otherwise. Market risk, strongly correlated with forecasting errors, needs to be minimized to ensure minimal risk in investment. The authors propose to minimize forecasting error by treating the forecasting problem as a classification problem, a popular suite of algorithms in Machine learning. In this paper, we propose a novel way to minimize the risk of investment in stock market by predicting the returns of a stock using a class of powerful machine learning algorithms known as ensemble learning. Some of the technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), stochastic oscillator etc are used as inputs to train our model. The learning model used is an ensemble of multiple decision trees. The algorithm is shown to outperform existing algo- rithms found in the literature. Out of Bag (OOB) error estimates have been found to be encouraging. Key Words: Random Forest Classifier, stock price forecasting, Exponential smoothing, feature extraction, OOB error and convergence.

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in supporting decision-making across a wide range of critical applications, including energy, healthcare, and finance. Despite recent advances, forecasting accuracy remains limited due to the challenge of integrating historical numerical sequences with contextual features, which often comprise unstructured textual data. To address this challenge, we propose TokenCast, an LLM-driven framework that leverages language-based symbolic representations as a unified intermediary for context-aware time series forecasting. Specifically, TokenCast employs a discrete tokenizer to transform continuous numerical sequences into temporal tokens, enabling structural alignment with language-based inputs. To bridge the semantic gap between modalities, both temporal and contextual tokens are embedded into a shared representation space via a pre-trained large language model (LLM), further optimized with autoregressive generative objectives. Building upon this unified semantic space, the aligned LLM is subsequently fine-tuned in a supervised manner to predict future temporal tokens, which are then decoded back into the original numerical space. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets enriched with contextual features demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of TokenCast.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

We present WildHands, a method for 3D hand pose estimation in egocentric images in the wild. This is challenging due to (a) lack of 3D hand pose annotations for images in the wild, and (b) a form of perspective distortion-induced shape ambiguity that arises in the analysis of crops around hands. For the former, we use auxiliary supervision on in-the-wild data in the form of segmentation masks & grasp labels in addition to 3D supervision available in lab datasets. For the latter, we provide spatial cues about the location of the hand crop in the camera's field of view. Our approach achieves the best 3D hand pose on the ARCTIC leaderboard and outperforms FrankMocap, a popular and robust approach for estimating hand pose in the wild, by 45.3% when evaluated on 2D hand pose on our EPIC-HandKps dataset.

This work describes a process for efficiently fine-tuning the GraphCast data-driven forecast model to simulate another analysis system, here the Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Using two years of training data (July 2019 -- December 2021) and 37 GPU-days of computation to tune the 37-level, quarter-degree version of GraphCast, the resulting model significantly outperforms both the unmodified GraphCast and operational forecast, showing significant forecast skill in the troposphere over lead times from 1 to 10 days. This fine-tuning is accomplished through abbreviating DeepMind's original training curriculum for GraphCast, relying on a shorter single-step forecast stage to accomplish the bulk of the adaptation work and consolidating the autoregressive stages into separate 12hr, 1d, 2d, and 3d stages with larger learning rates. Additionally, training over 3d forecasts is split into two sub-steps to conserve host memory while maintaining a strong correlation with training over the full period.

Hand Pose Estimation (HPE) is crucial to many applications, but conventional cameras-based CM-HPE methods are completely subject to Line-of-Sight (LoS), as cameras cannot capture occluded objects. In this paper, we propose to exploit Radio-Frequency-Vision (RF-vision) capable of bypassing obstacles for achieving occluded HPE, and we introduce OCHID-Fi as the first RF-HPE method with 3D pose estimation capability. OCHID-Fi employs wideband RF sensors widely available on smart devices (e.g., iPhones) to probe 3D human hand pose and extract their skeletons behind obstacles. To overcome the challenge in labeling RF imaging given its human incomprehensible nature, OCHID-Fi employs a cross-modality and cross-domain training process. It uses a pre-trained CM-HPE network and a synchronized CM/RF dataset, to guide the training of its complex-valued RF-HPE network under LoS conditions. It further transfers knowledge learned from labeled LoS domain to unlabeled occluded domain via adversarial learning, enabling OCHID-Fi to generalize to unseen occluded scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of OCHID-Fi: it achieves comparable accuracy to CM-HPE under normal conditions while maintaining such accuracy even in occluded scenarios, with empirical evidence for its generalizability to new domains.

In this paper, we propose to create animatable avatars for interacting hands with 3D Gaussian Splatting (GS) and single-image inputs. Existing GS-based methods designed for single subjects often yield unsatisfactory results due to limited input views, various hand poses, and occlusions. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel two-stage interaction-aware GS framework that exploits cross-subject hand priors and refines 3D Gaussians in interacting areas. Particularly, to handle hand variations, we disentangle the 3D presentation of hands into optimization-based identity maps and learning-based latent geometric features and neural texture maps. Learning-based features are captured by trained networks to provide reliable priors for poses, shapes, and textures, while optimization-based identity maps enable efficient one-shot fitting of out-of-distribution hands. Furthermore, we devise an interaction-aware attention module and a self-adaptive Gaussian refinement module. These modules enhance image rendering quality in areas with intra- and inter-hand interactions, overcoming the limitations of existing GS-based methods. Our proposed method is validated via extensive experiments on the large-scale InterHand2.6M dataset, and it significantly improves the state-of-the-art performance in image quality. Project Page: https://github.com/XuanHuang0/GuassianHand.

Manipulating objects to achieve desired goal states is a basic but important skill for dexterous manipulation. Human hand motions demonstrate proficient manipulation capability, providing valuable data for training robots with multi-finger hands. Despite this potential, substantial challenges arise due to the embodiment gap between human and robot hands. In this work, we introduce a hierarchical policy learning framework that uses human hand motion data for training object-centric dexterous robot manipulation. At the core of our method is a high-level trajectory generative model, learned with a large-scale human hand motion capture dataset, to synthesize human-like wrist motions conditioned on the desired object goal states. Guided by the generated wrist motions, deep reinforcement learning is further used to train a low-level finger controller that is grounded in the robot's embodiment to physically interact with the object to achieve the goal. Through extensive evaluation across 10 household objects, our approach not only demonstrates superior performance but also showcases generalization capability to novel object geometries and goal states. Furthermore, we transfer the learned policies from simulation to a real-world bimanual dexterous robot system, further demonstrating its applicability in real-world scenarios. Project website: https://cypypccpy.github.io/obj-dex.github.io/.

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from vision to time series remains challenging due to three discrepancies: (1) the data-modality gap between structured, bounded image data and unbounded, heterogeneous time series; (2) the multivariate-forecasting gap between fixed RGB-three-channel vision models and time series with arbitrary numbers of variates; and (3) the probabilistic-forecasting gap between the deterministic outputs of vision models and the requirement for uncertainty-aware probabilistic predictions. To bridge these gaps, we propose VisonTS++, a TSFM based on continual pre-training of a vision model on large-scale time series. Our approach introduces three key innovations: (1) vision-model-based filtering to identify high-quality sequences to stabilize pre-training and mitigate modality gap; (2) colorized multivariate conversion, encoding multivariate series as multi-subfigure RGB images to enhance cross-variate modeling; (3) multi-quantile forecasting, using parallel reconstruction heads to generate quantile forecasts without parametric assumptions. Experiments show that VisionTS++ achieves state-of-the-art performance in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution forecasting, outperforming specialized TSFMs by 6%-44% in MSE reduction and ranking first in GIFT-Eval benchmark which comprises 23 datasets across 7 domains. Our work demonstrates that with appropriate adaptation, vision models can effectively generalize to TSF, thus advancing the pursuit of universal TSFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/HALF111/VisionTSpp.

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.