Daily Papers

In observational settings where treatment and outcome share unmeasured confounders but an observed mediator remains unconfounded, the front-door (FD) adjustment identifies causal effects through the mediator. We study the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) under FD identification and introduce two debiased learners: FD-DR-Learner and FD-R-Learner. Both attain fast, quasi-oracle rates (i.e., performance comparable to an oracle that knows the nuisances) even when nuisance functions converge as slowly as n^-1/4. We provide error analyses establishing debiasedness and demonstrate robust empirical performance in synthetic studies and a real-world case study of primary seat-belt laws using Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) dataset. Together, these results indicate that the proposed learners deliver reliable and sample-efficient HTE estimates in FD scenarios. The implementation is available at https://github.com/yonghanjung/FD-CATE. Keywords: Front-door adjustment; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Debiased learning; Quasi-oracle rates; Causal inference.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Social media platforms have led to online consumption communities, or fandoms, that involve complex networks of ancillary creators and consumers focused on some core product or intellectual property. For example, video game communities include networks of players and content creators centered around a specific video game. These networks are complex in that video game publishers often sponsor creators, but creators and publishers may have divergent incentives. Specifically, creators can potentially benefit from content that builds their own following at the expense of the core game. Our research investigates the relationship between consuming live-streamed content and engagement with a specific video game. We examine the causal effect of viewing live-streamed content on subsequent gameplay for a specific game, using an unexpected service interruption of the livestreaming platform and time zone differences among users. We find live-streamed content significantly increases gameplay as a 10% increase in live-streamed viewing minutes results in a 3.08% increase in gameplay minutes. We also explore how this effect varies by user loyalty to different types of streamer channels (firm-owned, mega, and micro). The positive effects of live-streamed content are greatest for micro-streamers and smallest for mega-streamers. These findings are salient for firms allocating sponsorship resources.

Logical reasoning is a critical component of Large Language Models (LLMs), and substantial research efforts in recent years have aimed to enhance their deductive reasoning capabilities. However, existing deductive reasoning benchmarks, which are crucial for evaluating and advancing LLMs, are inadequate due to their lack of task complexity, presence of prior knowledge as a confounder, and superficial error analysis. To address these deficiencies, we introduce JustLogic, a synthetically generated deductive reasoning benchmark designed for rigorous evaluation of LLMs. JustLogic is (i) highly complex, capable of generating a diverse range of linguistic patterns, vocabulary, and argument structures; (ii) prior knowledge independent, eliminating the advantage of models possessing prior knowledge and ensuring that only deductive reasoning is used to answer questions; and (iii) capable of in-depth error analysis on the heterogeneous effects of reasoning depth and argument form on model accuracy. Our experimental results on JustLogic reveal that most state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs perform significantly worse than the human average, demonstrating substantial room for model improvement. All code and data are available at https://github.com/michaelchen-lab/JustLogic

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even longitudinal settings. While very diverse, the solution has mostly relied on neural networks for inference and simultaneous correction of assignment bias. New approaches typically build on top of previous approaches by proposing new (or refined) architectures and learning algorithms. However, the end result -- a neural-network-based inference machine -- remains unchallenged. In this paper, we introduce a different type of solution in the longitudinal setting: a closed-form ordinary differential equation (ODE). While we still rely on continuous optimization to learn an ODE, the resulting inference machine is no longer a neural network. Doing so yields several advantages such as interpretability, irregular sampling, and a different set of identification assumptions. Above all, we consider the introduction of a completely new type of solution to be our most important contribution as it may spark entirely new innovations in treatment effects in general. We facilitate this by formulating our contribution as a framework that can transform any ODE discovery method into a treatment effects method.

We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the need for hold-out calibration sets. Cross-calibration leverages cross-fitted predictors and generates a single calibrated predictor using all available data. Under weak conditions that do not assume monotonicity, we establish that both causal isotonic calibration and cross-calibration achieve fast doubly-robust calibration rates, as long as either the propensity score or outcome regression is estimated accurately in a suitable sense. The proposed causal isotonic calibrator can be wrapped around any black-box learning algorithm, providing robust and distribution-free calibration guarantees while preserving predictive performance.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

To effectively optimize and personalize treatments, it is necessary to investigate the heterogeneity of treatment effects. With the wide range of users being treated over many online controlled experiments, the typical approach of manually investigating each dimension of heterogeneity becomes overly cumbersome and prone to subjective human biases. We need an efficient way to search through thousands of experiments with hundreds of target covariates and hundreds of breakdown dimensions. In this paper, we propose a systematic paradigm for detecting, surfacing and characterizing heterogeneous treatment effects. First, we detect if treatment effect variation is present in an experiment, prior to specifying any breakdowns. Second, we surface the most relevant dimensions for heterogeneity. Finally, we characterize the heterogeneity beyond just the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) by studying the conditional distributions of the estimated individual treatment effects. We show the effectiveness of our methods using simulated data and empirical studies.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

Online marketplaces will be transformed by autonomous AI agents acting on behalf of consumers. Rather than humans browsing and clicking, vision-language-model (VLM) agents can parse webpages, evaluate products, and transact. This raises a fundamental question: what do AI agents buy, and why? We develop ACES, a sandbox environment that pairs a platform-agnostic VLM agent with a fully programmable mock marketplace to study this question. We first conduct basic rationality checks in the context of simple tasks, and then, by randomizing product positions, prices, ratings, reviews, sponsored tags, and platform endorsements, we obtain causal estimates of how frontier VLMs actually shop. Models show strong but heterogeneous position effects: all favor the top row, yet different models prefer different columns, undermining the assumption of a universal "top" rank. They penalize sponsored tags and reward endorsements. Sensitivities to price, ratings, and reviews are directionally human-like but vary sharply in magnitude across models. Motivated by scenarios where sellers use AI agents to optimize product listings, we show that a seller-side agent that makes minor tweaks to product descriptions, targeting AI buyer preferences, can deliver substantial market-share gains if AI-mediated shopping dominates. We also find that modal product choices can differ across models and, in some cases, demand may concentrate on a few select products, raising competition questions. Together, our results illuminate how AI agents may behave in e-commerce settings and surface concrete seller strategy, platform design, and regulatory questions in an AI-mediated ecosystem.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

LLM-based digital twin simulation, where large language models are used to emulate individual human behavior, holds great promise for research in AI, social science, and digital experimentation. However, progress in this area has been hindered by the scarcity of real, individual-level datasets that are both large and publicly available. This lack of high-quality ground truth limits both the development and validation of digital twin methodologies. To address this gap, we introduce a large-scale, public dataset designed to capture a rich and holistic view of individual human behavior. We survey a representative sample of N = 2,058 participants (average 2.42 hours per person) in the US across four waves with 500 questions in total, covering a comprehensive battery of demographic, psychological, economic, personality, and cognitive measures, as well as replications of behavioral economics experiments and a pricing survey. The final wave repeats tasks from earlier waves to establish a test-retest accuracy baseline. Initial analyses suggest the data are of high quality and show promise for constructing digital twins that predict human behavior well at the individual and aggregate levels. By making the full dataset publicly available, we aim to establish a valuable testbed for the development and benchmarking of LLM-based persona simulations. Beyond LLM applications, due to its unique breadth and scale the dataset also enables broad social science research, including studies of cross-construct correlations and heterogeneous treatment effects.

The Open Whisper-style Speech Model (OWSM) series was introduced to achieve full transparency in building advanced speech-to-text (S2T) foundation models. To this end, OWSM models are trained on 25 public speech datasets, which are heterogeneous in multiple ways. In this study, we advance the OWSM series by introducing OWSM v3.2, which improves on prior models by investigating and addressing the impacts of this data heterogeneity. Our study begins with a detailed analysis of each dataset, from which we derive two key strategies: data filtering with proxy task to enhance data quality, and the incorporation of punctuation and true-casing using an open large language model (LLM). With all other configurations staying the same, OWSM v3.2 improves performance over the OWSM v3.1 baseline while using 15% less training data.

Training dense LLMs requires enormous amounts of data and centralized compute, which introduces fundamental bottlenecks and ever-growing costs for large models. Several studies aim to reduce this dependency on centralization by reducing the communication overhead of training dense models. Taking this idea of reducing communication overhead to a natural extreme, by training embarrassingly parallelizable ensembles of small independent experts, has been shown to outperform large dense models trained in traditional centralized settings. However, existing studies do not take into account underlying differences amongst data domains and treat them as monolithic, regardless of their underlying complexity, size, or distribution. In this paper, we explore the effects of introducing heterogeneity to these ensembles of domain expert models. Specifically, by allowing models within the ensemble to vary in size--as well as the number of training steps taken depending on the training data's domain--we study the effect heterogeneity has on these ensembles when evaluated against domains included in, and excluded from, the training set. We use the same compute budget to train heterogeneous ensembles and homogeneous baselines for comparison. We show that the heterogeneous ensembles achieve the lowest perplexity scores in 20 out of the 21 data domains used in the evaluation. Our code is available at https://github.com/gensyn-ai/hdee.

Pretraining is the preliminary and fundamental step in developing capable language models (LM). Despite this, pretraining data design is critically under-documented and often guided by empirically unsupported intuitions. To address this, we pretrain 28 1.5B parameter decoder-only models, training on data curated (1) at different times, (2) with varying toxicity and quality filters, and (3) with different domain compositions. First, we quantify the effect of pretraining data age. A temporal shift between evaluation data and pretraining data leads to performance degradation, which is not overcome by finetuning. Second, we explore the effect of quality and toxicity filters, showing a trade-off between performance on standard benchmarks and risk of toxic generations. Our findings indicate there does not exist a one-size-fits-all solution to filtering training data. We also find that the effects of different types of filtering are not predictable from text domain characteristics. Lastly, we empirically validate that the inclusion of heterogeneous data sources, like books and web, is broadly beneficial and warrants greater prioritization. These findings constitute the largest set of experiments to validate, quantify, and expose many undocumented intuitions about text pretraining, which we hope will help support more informed data-centric decisions in LM development.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Recent advancements in building domain-specific large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable success, especially in tasks requiring reasoning abilities like logical inference over complex relationships and multi-step problem solving. However, creating a powerful all-in-one LLM remains challenging due to the need for proprietary data and vast computational resources. As a resource-friendly alternative, we explore the potential of merging multiple expert models into a single LLM. Existing studies on model merging mainly focus on generalist LLMs instead of domain experts, or the LLMs under the same architecture and size. In this work, we propose an unconstrained model merging framework that accommodates both homogeneous and heterogeneous model architectures with a focus on reasoning tasks. A fine-grained layer-wise weight merging strategy is designed for homogeneous models merging, while heterogeneous model merging is built upon the probabilistic distribution knowledge derived from instruction-response fine-tuning data. Across 7 benchmarks and 9 reasoning-optimized LLMs, we reveal key findings that combinatorial reasoning emerges from merging which surpasses simple additive effects. We propose that unconstrained model merging could serve as a foundation for decentralized LLMs, marking a notable progression from the existing centralized LLM framework. This evolution could enhance wider participation and stimulate additional advancement in the field of artificial intelligence, effectively addressing the constraints posed by centralized models.

Estimating causal effect using machine learning (ML) algorithms can help to relax functional form assumptions if used within appropriate frameworks. However, most of these frameworks assume settings with cross-sectional data, whereas researchers often have access to panel data, which in traditional methods helps to deal with unobserved heterogeneity between units. In this paper, we explore how we can adapt double/debiased machine learning (DML) (Chernozhukov et al., 2018) for panel data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. This adaptation is challenging because DML's cross-fitting procedure assumes independent data and the unobserved heterogeneity is not necessarily additively separable in settings with nonlinear observed confounding. We assess the performance of several intuitively appealing estimators in a variety of simulations. While we find violations of the cross-fitting assumptions to be largely inconsequential for the accuracy of the effect estimates, many of the considered methods fail to adequately account for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. However, we find that using predictive models based on the correlated random effects approach (Mundlak, 1978) within DML leads to accurate coefficient estimates across settings, given a sample size that is large relative to the number of observed confounders. We also show that the influence of the unobserved heterogeneity on the observed confounders plays a significant role for the performance of most alternative methods.

Generative AI tools hold promise to increase human productivity. This paper presents results from a controlled experiment with GitHub Copilot, an AI pair programmer. Recruited software developers were asked to implement an HTTP server in JavaScript as quickly as possible. The treatment group, with access to the AI pair programmer, completed the task 55.8% faster than the control group. Observed heterogenous effects show promise for AI pair programmers to help people transition into software development careers.

This article presents Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a tool for visualizing the model estimated by any supervised learning algorithm. Classical partial dependence plots (PDPs) help visualize the average partial relationship between the predicted response and one or more features. In the presence of substantial interaction effects, the partial response relationship can be heterogeneous. Thus, an average curve, such as the PDP, can obfuscate the complexity of the modeled relationship. Accordingly, ICE plots refine the partial dependence plot by graphing the functional relationship between the predicted response and the feature for individual observations. Specifically, ICE plots highlight the variation in the fitted values across the range of a covariate, suggesting where and to what extent heterogeneities might exist. In addition to providing a plotting suite for exploratory analysis, we include a visual test for additive structure in the data generating model. Through simulated examples and real data sets, we demonstrate how ICE plots can shed light on estimated models in ways PDPs cannot. Procedures outlined are available in the R package ICEbox.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

We present a model that can perform multiple vision tasks and can be adapted to other downstream tasks efficiently. Despite considerable progress in multi-task learning, most efforts focus on learning from multi-label data: a single image set with multiple task labels. Such multi-label data sets are rare, small, and expensive. We say heterogeneous to refer to image sets with different task labels, or to combinations of single-task datasets. Few have explored training on such heterogeneous datasets. General-purpose vision models are still dominated by single-task pretraining, and it remains unclear how to scale up multi-task models by leveraging mainstream vision datasets designed for different purposes. The challenges lie in managing large intrinsic differences among vision tasks, including data distribution, architectures, task-specific modules, dataset scales, and sampling strategies. To address these challenges, we propose to modify and scale up mixture-of-experts (MoE) vision transformers, so that they can simultaneously learn classification, detection, and segmentation on diverse mainstream vision datasets including ImageNet, COCO, and ADE20K. Our approach achieves comparable results to single-task state-of-the-art models and demonstrates strong generalization on downstream tasks. Due to its emergent modularity, this general-purpose model decomposes into high-performing components, efficiently adapting to downstream tasks. We can fine-tune it with fewer training parameters, fewer model parameters, and less computation. Additionally, its modularity allows for easy expansion in continual-learning-without-forgetting scenarios. Finally, these functions can be controlled and combined to meet various demands of downstream tasks.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) offers remarkable performance and computational efficiency by selectively activating subsets of model parameters. Traditionally, MoE models use homogeneous experts, each with identical capacity. However, varying complexity in input data necessitates experts with diverse capabilities, while homogeneous MoE hinders effective expert specialization and efficient parameter utilization. In this study, we propose a novel Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (HMoE), where experts differ in size and thus possess diverse capacities. This heterogeneity allows for more specialized experts to handle varying token complexities more effectively. To address the imbalance in expert activation, we propose a novel training objective that encourages the frequent activation of smaller experts, enhancing computational efficiency and parameter utilization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HMoE achieves lower loss with fewer activated parameters and outperforms conventional homogeneous MoE models on various pre-training evaluation benchmarks. Codes will be released upon acceptance.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

In the marketing field, understanding consumer heterogeneity, which is the internal or psychological difference among consumers that cannot be captured by behavioral logs, has long been a critical challenge. However, a number of consumers today usually post their evaluation on the specific product on the online platform, which can be the valuable source of such unobservable differences among consumers. Several previous studies have shown the validity of the analysis on text modality, but on the other hand, such analyses may not necessarily demonstrate sufficient predictive accuracy for text alone, as they may not include information readily available from cross-sectional data, such as consumer profile data. In addition, recent advances in machine learning techniques, such as large-scale language models (LLMs) and multimodal learning have made it possible to deal with the various kind of dataset simultaneously, including textual data and the traditional cross-sectional data, and the joint representations can be effectively obtained from multiple modalities. Therefore, this study constructs a product evaluation model that takes into account consumer heterogeneity by multimodal learning of online product reviews and consumer profile information. We also compare multiple models using different modalities or hyper-parameters to demonstrate the robustness of multimodal learning in marketing analysis.

The heterogeneous network is a robust data abstraction that can model entities of different types interacting in various ways. Such heterogeneity brings rich semantic information but presents nontrivial challenges in aggregating the heterogeneous relationships between objects - especially those of higher-order indirect relations. Recent graph neural network approaches for representation learning on heterogeneous networks typically employ the attention mechanism, which is often only optimized for predictions based on direct links. Furthermore, even though most deep learning methods can aggregate higher-order information by building deeper models, such a scheme can diminish the degree of interpretability. To overcome these challenges, we explore an architecture - Layer-stacked ATTention Embedding (LATTE) - that automatically decomposes higher-order meta relations at each layer to extract the relevant heterogeneous neighborhood structures for each node. Additionally, by successively stacking layer representations, the learned node embedding offers a more interpretable aggregation scheme for nodes of different types at different neighborhood ranges. We conducted experiments on several benchmark heterogeneous network datasets. In both transductive and inductive node classification tasks, LATTE can achieve state-of-the-art performance compared to existing approaches, all while offering a lightweight model. With extensive experimental analyses and visualizations, the framework can demonstrate the ability to extract informative insights on heterogeneous networks.

Heterogeneous graph learning aims to capture complex relationships and diverse relational semantics among entities in a heterogeneous graph to obtain meaningful representations for nodes and edges. Recent advancements in heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance by considering relation heterogeneity and using specialized message functions and aggregation rules. However, existing frameworks for heterogeneous graph learning have limitations in generalizing across diverse heterogeneous graph datasets. Most of these frameworks follow the "pre-train" and "fine-tune" paradigm on the same dataset, which restricts their capacity to adapt to new and unseen data. This raises the question: "Can we generalize heterogeneous graph models to be well-adapted to diverse downstream learning tasks with distribution shifts in both node token sets and relation type heterogeneity?'' To tackle those challenges, we propose HiGPT, a general large graph model with Heterogeneous graph instruction-tuning paradigm. Our framework enables learning from arbitrary heterogeneous graphs without the need for any fine-tuning process from downstream datasets. To handle distribution shifts in heterogeneity, we introduce an in-context heterogeneous graph tokenizer that captures semantic relationships in different heterogeneous graphs, facilitating model adaptation. We incorporate a large corpus of heterogeneity-aware graph instructions into our HiGPT, enabling the model to effectively comprehend complex relation heterogeneity and distinguish between various types of graph tokens. Furthermore, we introduce the Mixture-of-Thought (MoT) instruction augmentation paradigm to mitigate data scarcity by generating diverse and informative instructions. Through comprehensive evaluations, our proposed framework demonstrates exceptional performance in terms of generalization performance.

Score-based generative models, commonly referred to as diffusion models, have proven to be successful at generating text and image data. However, their adaptation to mixed-type tabular data remains underexplored. In this work, we propose CDTD, a Continuous Diffusion model for mixed-type Tabular Data. CDTD is based on a novel combination of score matching and score interpolation to enforce a unified continuous noise distribution for both continuous and categorical features. We explicitly acknowledge the necessity of homogenizing distinct data types by relying on model-specific loss calibration and initialization schemes.To further address the high heterogeneity in mixed-type tabular data, we introduce adaptive feature- or type-specific noise schedules. These ensure balanced generative performance across features and optimize the allocation of model capacity across features and diffusion time. Our experimental results show that CDTD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmark models, captures feature correlations exceptionally well, and that heterogeneity in the noise schedule design boosts sample quality. Replication code is available at https://github.com/muellermarkus/cdtd.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on general-purpose tasks, yet adapting them to specific domains remains challenging due to the scarcity of high-quality domain data. Existing data synthesis tools often struggle to extract reliable fine-tuning data from heterogeneous documents effectively. To address this limitation, we propose Easy Dataset, a unified framework for synthesizing fine-tuning data from unstructured documents via an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). Specifically, Easy Dataset allows users to easily configure text extraction models and chunking strategies to transform raw documents into coherent text chunks. It then leverages a persona-driven prompting approach to generate diverse question-answer pairs using public-available LLMs. Throughout the pipeline, a human-in-the-loop visual interface facilitates the review and refinement of intermediate outputs to ensure data quality. Experiments on a financial question-answering task show that fine-tuning LLMs on the synthesized dataset significantly improves domain-specific performance while preserving general knowledge. The source code and installable package are available at https://github.com/ConardLi/easy-dataset and have garnered over 9,000 GitHub stars.

Multilevel data are prevalent in many real-world applications. However, it remains an open research problem to identify and justify a class of models that flexibly capture a wide range of multilevel data. Motivated by the versatility of the mixture of experts (MoE) models in fitting regression data, in this article we extend upon the MoE and study a class of mixed MoE (MMoE) models for multilevel data. Under some regularity conditions, we prove that the MMoE is dense in the space of any continuous mixed effects models in the sense of weak convergence. As a result, the MMoE has a potential to accurately resemble almost all characteristics inherited in multilevel data, including the marginal distributions, dependence structures, regression links, random intercepts and random slopes. In a particular case where the multilevel data is hierarchical, we further show that a nested version of the MMoE universally approximates a broad range of dependence structures of the random effects among different factor levels.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

The efficiency of Federated Learning (FL) is often affected by both data and device heterogeneities. Data heterogeneity is defined as the heterogeneity of data distributions on different clients. Device heterogeneity is defined as the clients' variant latencies in uploading their local model updates due to heterogeneous conditions of local hardware resources, and causes the problem of staleness when being addressed by asynchronous FL. Traditional schemes of tackling the impact of staleness consider data and device heterogeneities as two separate and independent aspects in FL, but this assumption is unrealistic in many practical FL scenarios where data and device heterogeneities are intertwined. In these cases, traditional schemes of weighted aggregation in FL have been proved to be ineffective, and a better approach is to convert a stale model update into a non-stale one. In this paper, we present a new FL framework that leverages the gradient inversion technique for such conversion, hence efficiently tackling unlimited staleness in clients' model updates. Our basic idea is to use gradient inversion to get estimations of clients' local training data from their uploaded stale model updates, and use these estimations to compute non-stale client model updates. In this way, we address the problem of possible data quality drop when using gradient inversion, while still preserving the clients' local data privacy. We compared our approach with the existing FL strategies on mainstream datasets and models, and experiment results demonstrate that when tackling unlimited staleness, our approach can significantly improve the trained model accuracy by up to 20% and speed up the FL training progress by up to 35%.

Federated Learning (FL) represents a paradigm shift in distributed machine learning (ML), enabling clients to train models collaboratively while keeping their raw data private. This paradigm shift from traditional centralized ML introduces challenges due to the non-iid (non-independent and identically distributed) nature of data across clients, significantly impacting FL's performance. Existing literature, predominantly model data heterogeneity by imposing label distribution skew across clients. In this paper, we show that label distribution skew fails to fully capture the real-world data heterogeneity among clients in computer vision tasks beyond classification. Subsequently, we demonstrate that current approaches overestimate FL's performance by relying on label/class distribution skew, exposing an overlooked gap in the literature. By utilizing pre-trained deep neural networks to extract task-specific data embeddings, we define task-specific data heterogeneity through the lens of each vision task and introduce a new level of data heterogeneity called embedding-based data heterogeneity. Our methodology involves clustering data points based on embeddings and distributing them among clients using the Dirichlet distribution. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate the performance of different FL methods under our revamped notion of data heterogeneity, introducing new benchmark performance measures to the literature. We further unveil a series of open research directions that can be pursued.

Recent evidence suggests that the use of generative artificial intelligence reduces the diversity of content produced. In this work, we develop a game-theoretic model to explore the downstream consequences of content homogeneity when producers use generative AI to compete with one another. At equilibrium, players indeed produce content that is less diverse than optimal. However, stronger competition mitigates homogeneity and induces more diverse production. Perhaps more surprisingly, we show that a generative AI model that performs well in isolation (i.e., according to a benchmark) may fail to do so when faced with competition, and vice versa. We validate our results empirically by using language models to play Scattergories, a word game in which players are rewarded for producing answers that are both correct and unique. We discuss how the interplay between competition and homogeneity has implications for the development, evaluation, and use of generative AI.

As a promising approach to deal with distributed data, Federated Learning (FL) achieves major advancements in recent years. FL enables collaborative model training by exploiting the raw data dispersed in multiple edge devices. However, the data is generally non-independent and identically distributed, i.e., statistical heterogeneity, and the edge devices significantly differ in terms of both computation and communication capacity, i.e., system heterogeneity. The statistical heterogeneity leads to severe accuracy degradation while the system heterogeneity significantly prolongs the training process. In order to address the heterogeneity issue, we propose an Asynchronous Staleness-aware Model Update FL framework, i.e., FedASMU, with two novel methods. First, we propose an asynchronous FL system model with a dynamical model aggregation method between updated local models and the global model on the server for superior accuracy and high efficiency. Then, we propose an adaptive local model adjustment method by aggregating the fresh global model with local models on devices to further improve the accuracy. Extensive experimentation with 6 models and 5 public datasets demonstrates that FedASMU significantly outperforms baseline approaches in terms of accuracy (0.60% to 23.90% higher) and efficiency (3.54% to 97.98% faster).

The primary goal in recommendation is to suggest relevant content to users, but optimizing for accuracy often results in recommendations that lack diversity. To remedy this, conventional approaches such as re-ranking improve diversity by presenting more diverse items. Here we argue that to promote inherent and prolonged diversity, the system must encourage its creation. Towards this, we harness the performative nature of recommendation, and show how learning can incentivize strategic content creators to create diverse content. Our approach relies on a novel form of regularization that anticipates strategic changes to content, and penalizes for content homogeneity. We provide analytic and empirical results that demonstrate when and how diversity can be incentivized, and experimentally demonstrate the utility of our approach on synthetic and semi-synthetic data.

Many studies on scaling laws consider basic factors such as model size, model shape, dataset size, and compute power. These factors are easily tunable and represent the fundamental elements of any machine learning setup. But researchers have also employed more complex factors to estimate the test error and generalization performance with high predictability. These factors are generally specific to the domain or application. For example, feature diversity was primarily used for promoting syn-to-real transfer by Chen et al. (2021). With numerous scaling factors defined in previous works, it would be interesting to investigate how these factors may affect overall generalization performance in the context of self-supervised learning with CNN models. How do individual factors promote generalization, which includes varying depth, width, or the number of training epochs with early stopping? For example, does higher feature diversity result in higher accuracy held in complex settings other than a syn-to-real transfer? How do these factors depend on each other? We found that the last layer is the most diversified throughout the training. However, while the model's test error decreases with increasing epochs, its diversity drops. We also discovered that diversity is directly related to model width.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data are often confounded by technical or biological batch effects. Existing deep learning models mitigate these effects but often discard batch-specific information, potentially losing valuable biological insights. We propose a Mixed Effects Deep Learning (MEDL) autoencoder framework that separately models batch-invariant (fixed effects) and batch-specific (random effects) components. By decoupling batch-invariant biological states from batch variations, our framework integrates both into predictive models. Our approach also generates 2D visualizations of how the same cell appears across batches, enhancing interpretability. Retaining both fixed and random effect latent spaces improves classification accuracy. We applied our framework to three datasets spanning the cardiovascular system (Healthy Heart), Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), and Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML). With 147 batches in the Healthy Heart dataset, far exceeding typical numbers, we tested our framework's ability to handle many batches. In the ASD dataset, our approach captured donor heterogeneity between autistic and healthy individuals. In the AML dataset, it distinguished donor heterogeneity despite missing cell types and diseased donors exhibiting both healthy and malignant cells. These results highlight our framework's ability to characterize fixed and random effects, enhance batch effect visualization, and improve prediction accuracy across diverse datasets.

Many cellular processes involve information processing and decision making. We can probe these processes at increasing molecular detail. The analysis of heterogeneous data remains a challenge that requires new ways of thinking about cells in quantitative, predictive, and mechanistic ways. We discuss the role of mathematical models in the context of cell-fate decision making systems across the tree of life. Complex multi-cellular organisms have been a particular focus, but single celled organisms also have to sense and respond to their environment. We center our discussion around the idea of design principles which we can learn from observations and modeling, and exploit in order to (re)-design or guide cellular behavior.

Recently, recommender systems have been able to emit substantially improved recommendations by leveraging user-provided reviews. Existing methods typically merge all reviews of a given user or item into a long document, and then process user and item documents in the same manner. In practice, however, these two sets of reviews are notably different: users' reviews reflect a variety of items that they have bought and are hence very heterogeneous in their topics, while an item's reviews pertain only to that single item and are thus topically homogeneous. In this work, we develop a novel neural network model that properly accounts for this important difference by means of asymmetric attentive modules. The user module learns to attend to only those signals that are relevant with respect to the target item, whereas the item module learns to extract the most salient contents with regard to properties of the item. Our multi-hierarchical paradigm accounts for the fact that neither are all reviews equally useful, nor are all sentences within each review equally pertinent. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Federated Learning (FL) is a decentralized machine-learning paradigm, in which a global server iteratively averages the model parameters of local users without accessing their data. User heterogeneity has imposed significant challenges to FL, which can incur drifted global models that are slow to converge. Knowledge Distillation has recently emerged to tackle this issue, by refining the server model using aggregated knowledge from heterogeneous users, other than directly averaging their model parameters. This approach, however, depends on a proxy dataset, making it impractical unless such a prerequisite is satisfied. Moreover, the ensemble knowledge is not fully utilized to guide local model learning, which may in turn affect the quality of the aggregated model. Inspired by the prior art, we propose a data-free knowledge distillation} approach to address heterogeneous FL, where the server learns a lightweight generator to ensemble user information in a data-free manner, which is then broadcasted to users, regulating local training using the learned knowledge as an inductive bias. Empirical studies powered by theoretical implications show that, our approach facilitates FL with better generalization performance using fewer communication rounds, compared with the state-of-the-art.

As AI evolves, collaboration among heterogeneous models helps overcome data scarcity by enabling knowledge transfer across institutions and devices. Traditional Federated Learning (FL) only supports homogeneous models, limiting collaboration among clients with heterogeneous model architectures. To address this, Heterogeneous Federated Learning (HtFL) methods are developed to enable collaboration across diverse heterogeneous models while tackling the data heterogeneity issue at the same time. However, a comprehensive benchmark for standardized evaluation and analysis of the rapidly growing HtFL methods is lacking. Firstly, the highly varied datasets, model heterogeneity scenarios, and different method implementations become hurdles to making easy and fair comparisons among HtFL methods. Secondly, the effectiveness and robustness of HtFL methods are under-explored in various scenarios, such as the medical domain and sensor signal modality. To fill this gap, we introduce the first Heterogeneous Federated Learning Library (HtFLlib), an easy-to-use and extensible framework that integrates multiple datasets and model heterogeneity scenarios, offering a robust benchmark for research and practical applications. Specifically, HtFLlib integrates (1) 12 datasets spanning various domains, modalities, and data heterogeneity scenarios; (2) 40 model architectures, ranging from small to large, across three modalities; (3) a modularized and easy-to-extend HtFL codebase with implementations of 10 representative HtFL methods; and (4) systematic evaluations in terms of accuracy, convergence, computation costs, and communication costs. We emphasize the advantages and potential of state-of-the-art HtFL methods and hope that HtFLlib will catalyze advancing HtFL research and enable its broader applications. The code is released at https://github.com/TsingZ0/HtFLlib.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning method that offers medical institutes the prospect of collaboration in a global model while preserving the privacy of their patients. Although most medical centers conduct similar medical imaging tasks, their differences, such as specializations, number of patients, and devices, lead to distinctive data distributions. Data heterogeneity poses a challenge for FL and the personalization of the local models. In this work, we investigate an adaptive hierarchical clustering method for FL to produce intermediate semi-global models, so clients with similar data distribution have the chance of forming a more specialized model. Our method forms several clusters consisting of clients with the most similar data distributions; then, each cluster continues to train separately. Inside the cluster, we use meta-learning to improve the personalization of the participants' models. We compare the clustering approach with classical FedAvg and centralized training by evaluating our proposed methods on the HAM10k dataset for skin lesion classification with extreme heterogeneous data distribution. Our experiments demonstrate significant performance gain in heterogeneous distribution compared to standard FL methods in classification accuracy. Moreover, we show that the models converge faster if applied in clusters and outperform centralized training while using only a small subset of data.

Traditional fixed test sets fall short in evaluating open-ended capabilities of foundation models. To address this, we propose ONEBench(OpeN-Ended Benchmarking), a new testing paradigm that consolidates individual evaluation datasets into a unified, ever-expanding sample pool. ONEBench allows users to generate custom, open-ended evaluation benchmarks from this pool, corresponding to specific capabilities of interest. By aggregating samples across test sets, ONEBench enables the assessment of diverse capabilities beyond those covered by the original test sets, while mitigating overfitting and dataset bias. Most importantly, it frames model evaluation as a collective process of selecting and aggregating sample-level tests. The shift from task-specific benchmarks to ONEBench introduces two challenges: (1)heterogeneity and (2)incompleteness. Heterogeneity refers to the aggregation over diverse metrics, while incompleteness describes comparing models evaluated on different data subsets. To address these challenges, we explore algorithms to aggregate sparse measurements into reliable model scores. Our aggregation algorithm ensures identifiability(asymptotically recovering ground-truth scores) and rapid convergence, enabling accurate model ranking with less data. On homogenous datasets, we show our aggregation algorithm provides rankings that highly correlate with those produced by average scores. We also demonstrate robustness to ~95% of measurements missing, reducing evaluation cost by up to 20x with little-to-no change in model rankings. We introduce ONEBench-LLM for language models and ONEBench-LMM for vision-language models, unifying evaluations across these domains. Overall, we present a technique for open-ended evaluation, which can aggregate over incomplete, heterogeneous sample-level measurements to continually grow a benchmark alongside the rapidly developing foundation models.

Due to domain shift, machine learning systems typically fail to generalize well to domains different from those of training data, which is what domain generalization (DG) aims to address. Although various DG methods have been developed, most of them lack interpretability and require domain labels that are not available in many real-world scenarios. This paper presents a novel DG method, called HMOE: Hypernetwork-based Mixture of Experts (MoE), which does not rely on domain labels and is more interpretable. MoE proves effective in identifying heterogeneous patterns in data. For the DG problem, heterogeneity arises exactly from domain shift. HMOE uses hypernetworks taking vectors as input to generate experts' weights, which allows experts to share useful meta-knowledge and enables exploring experts' similarities in a low-dimensional vector space. We compare HMOE with other DG algorithms under a fair and unified benchmark-DomainBed. Our extensive experiments show that HMOE can divide mixed-domain data into distinct clusters that are surprisingly more consistent with human intuition than original domain labels. Compared to other DG methods, HMOE shows competitive performance and achieves SOTA results in some cases.

As a key component in boosting online user growth, uplift modeling aims to measure individual user responses (e.g., whether to play the game) to various treatments, such as gaming bonuses, thereby enhancing business outcomes. However, previous research typically considers a single-task, single-treatment setting, where only one treatment exists and the overall treatment effect is measured by a single type of user response. In this paper, we propose a Multi-Treatment Multi-Task (MTMT) uplift network to estimate treatment effects in a multi-task scenario. We identify the multi-treatment problem as a causal inference problem with a tiered response, comprising a base effect (from offering a treatment) and an incremental effect (from offering a specific type of treatment), where the base effect can be numerically much larger than the incremental effect. Specifically, MTMT separately encodes user features and treatments. The user feature encoder uses a multi-gate mixture of experts (MMOE) network to encode relevant user features, explicitly learning inter-task relations. The resultant embeddings are used to measure natural responses per task. Furthermore, we introduce a treatment-user feature interaction module to model correlations between each treatment and user feature. Consequently, we separately measure the base and incremental treatment effect for each task based on the produced treatment-aware representations. Experimental results based on an offline public dataset and an online proprietary dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of MTMT in single/multi-treatment and single/multi-task settings. Additionally, MTMT has been deployed in our gaming platform to improve user experience.

Federated learning algorithms, such as FedAvg, are negatively affected by data heterogeneity and partial client participation. To mitigate the latter problem, global variance reduction methods, like FedVARP, leverage stale model updates for non-participating clients. These methods are effective under homogeneous client participation. Yet, this paper shows that, when some clients participate much less than others, aggregating updates with different levels of staleness can detrimentally affect the training process. Motivated by this observation, we introduce FedStale, a novel algorithm that updates the global model in each round through a convex combination of "fresh" updates from participating clients and "stale" updates from non-participating ones. By adjusting the weight in the convex combination, FedStale interpolates between FedAvg, which only uses fresh updates, and FedVARP, which treats fresh and stale updates equally. Our analysis of FedStale convergence yields the following novel findings: i) it integrates and extends previous FedAvg and FedVARP analyses to heterogeneous client participation; ii) it underscores how the least participating client influences convergence error; iii) it provides practical guidelines to best exploit stale updates, showing that their usefulness diminishes as data heterogeneity decreases and participation heterogeneity increases. Extensive experiments featuring diverse levels of client data and participation heterogeneity not only confirm these findings but also show that FedStale outperforms both FedAvg and FedVARP in many settings.

The labor market is a complex ecosystem comprising diverse, interconnected entities, such as industries, occupations, skills, and firms. Due to the lack of a systematic method to map these heterogeneous entities together, each entity has been analyzed in isolation or only through pairwise relationships, inhibiting comprehensive understanding of the whole ecosystem. Here, we introduce Labor Space, a vector-space embedding of heterogeneous labor market entities, derived through applying a large language model with fine-tuning. Labor Space exposes the complex relational fabric of various labor market constituents, facilitating coherent integrative analysis of industries, occupations, skills, and firms, while retaining type-specific clustering. We demonstrate its unprecedented analytical capacities, including positioning heterogeneous entities on an economic axes, such as `Manufacturing--Healthcare'. Furthermore, by allowing vector arithmetic of these entities, Labor Space enables the exploration of complex inter-unit relations, and subsequently the estimation of the ramifications of economic shocks on individual units and their ripple effect across the labor market. We posit that Labor Space provides policymakers and business leaders with a comprehensive unifying framework for labor market analysis and simulation, fostering more nuanced and effective strategic decision-making.

Traditional Federated Learning (FL) faces significant challenges in terms of efficiency and accuracy, particularly in heterogeneous environments where clients employ diverse model architectures and have varying computational resources. Such heterogeneity complicates the aggregation process, leading to performance bottlenecks and reduced model generalizability. To address these issues, we propose FedADP, a federated learning framework designed to adapt to client heterogeneity by dynamically adjusting model architectures during aggregation. FedADP enables effective collaboration among clients with differing capabilities, maximizing resource utilization and ensuring model quality. Our experimental results demonstrate that FedADP significantly outperforms existing methods, such as FlexiFed, achieving an accuracy improvement of up to 23.30%, thereby enhancing model adaptability and training efficiency in heterogeneous real-world settings.

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large experiments are generically expensive, and randomisation carries its own costs, e.g. when suboptimal decisions are trialed. Recent work has proposed more sample-efficient alternatives to RCTs, but these are not adaptable to the downstream application for which the causal effect is sought. In this work, we develop a task-specific approach to experimental design and derive sampling strategies customised to particular downstream applications. Across a range of important tasks, real-world datasets, and sample sizes, our method outperforms other benchmarks, e.g. requiring an order-of-magnitude less data to match RCT performance on targeted marketing tasks.

User recommendation systems enhance user engagement by encouraging users to act as inviters to interact with other users (invitees), potentially fostering information propagation. Conventional recommendation methods typically focus on modeling interaction willingness. Influence-Maximization (IM) methods focus on identifying a set of users to maximize the information propagation. However, existing methods face two significant challenges. First, recommendation methods fail to unleash the candidates' spread capability. Second, IM methods fail to account for the willingness to interact. To solve these issues, we propose two models named HeteroIR and HeteroIM. HeteroIR provides an intuitive solution to unleash the dissemination potential of user recommendation systems. HeteroIM fills the gap between the IM method and the recommendation task, improving interaction willingness and maximizing spread coverage. The HeteroIR introduces a two-stage framework to estimate the spread profits. The HeteroIM incrementally selects the most influential invitee to recommend and rerank based on the number of reverse reachable (RR) sets containing inviters and invitees. RR set denotes a set of nodes that can reach a target via propagation. Extensive experiments show that HeteroIR and HeteroIM significantly outperform the state-of-the-art baselines with the p-value < 0.05. Furthermore, we have deployed HeteroIR and HeteroIM in Tencent's online gaming platforms and gained an 8.5\% and 10\% improvement in the online A/B test, respectively. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/socialalgo/HIM.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have revolutionized graph-structured data modeling, yet traditional GNNs struggle with complex heterogeneous structures prevalent in real-world scenarios. Despite progress in handling heterogeneous interactions, two fundamental challenges persist: noisy data significantly compromising embedding quality and learning performance, and existing methods' inability to capture intricate semantic transitions among heterogeneous relations, which impacts downstream predictions. To address these fundamental issues, we present the Heterogeneous Graph Diffusion Model (DiffGraph), a pioneering framework that introduces an innovative cross-view denoising strategy. This advanced approach transforms auxiliary heterogeneous data into target semantic spaces, enabling precise distillation of task-relevant information. At its core, DiffGraph features a sophisticated latent heterogeneous graph diffusion mechanism, implementing a novel forward and backward diffusion process for superior noise management. This methodology achieves simultaneous heterogeneous graph denoising and cross-type transition, while significantly simplifying graph generation through its latent-space diffusion capabilities. Through rigorous experimental validation on both public and industrial datasets, we demonstrate that DiffGraph consistently surpasses existing methods in link prediction and node classification tasks, establishing new benchmarks for robustness and efficiency in heterogeneous graph processing. The model implementation is publicly available at: https://github.com/HKUDS/DiffGraph.

Earth Observation (EO) data are increasingly used in policy analysis by enabling granular estimation of treatment effects. However, a challenge in EO-based causal inference lies in balancing the trade-off between capturing fine-grained individual heterogeneity and broader contextual information. This paper introduces Multi-scale Concatenation, a family of composable procedures that transform arbitrary single-scale CATE estimation algorithms into multi-scale algorithms. We benchmark the performance of Multi-scale Concatenation on a CATE estimation pipeline combining Vision Transformer (ViT) models fine-tuned on satellite images to encode images of different scales with Causal Forests to obtain the final CATE estimate. We first perform simulation studies, showing how a multi-scale approach captures multi-level dynamics that single-scale ViT models fail to capture. We then apply the multi-scale method to two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in Peru and Uganda using Landsat satellite imagery. In the RCT analysis, the Rank Average Treatment Effect Ratio (RATE Ratio) measure is employed to assess performance without ground truth individual treatment effects. Results indicate that Multi-scale Concatenation improves the performance of deep learning models in EO-based CATE estimation without the complexity of designing new multi-scale architectures for a specific use case.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

Many real-world graphs frequently present challenges for graph learning due to the presence of both heterophily and heterogeneity. However, existing benchmarks for graph learning often focus on heterogeneous graphs with homophily or homogeneous graphs with heterophily, leaving a gap in understanding how methods perform on graphs that are both heterogeneous and heterophilic. To bridge this gap, we introduce H2GB, a novel graph benchmark that brings together the complexities of both the heterophily and heterogeneity properties of graphs. Our benchmark encompasses 9 diverse real-world datasets across 5 domains, 28 baseline model implementations, and 26 benchmark results. In addition, we present a modular graph transformer framework UnifiedGT and a new model variant, H2G-former, that excels at this challenging benchmark. By integrating masked label embeddings, cross-type heterogeneous attention, and type-specific FFNs, H2G-former effectively tackles graph heterophily and heterogeneity. Extensive experiments across 26 baselines on H2GB reveal inadequacies of current models on heterogeneous heterophilic graph learning, and demonstrate the superiority of our H2G-former over existing solutions. Both the benchmark and the framework are available on GitHub (https://github.com/junhongmit/H2GB) and PyPI (https://pypi.org/project/H2GB), and documentation can be found at https://junhongmit.github.io/H2GB/.

This work considers the category distribution heterogeneity in federated learning. This issue is due to biased labeling preferences at multiple clients and is a typical setting of data heterogeneity. To alleviate this issue, most previous works consider either regularizing local models or fine-tuning the global model, while they ignore the adjustment of aggregation weights and simply assign weights based on the dataset size. However, based on our empirical observations and theoretical analysis, we find that the dataset size is not optimal and the discrepancy between local and global category distributions could be a beneficial and complementary indicator for determining aggregation weights. We thus propose a novel aggregation method, Federated Learning with Discrepancy-aware Collaboration (FedDisco), whose aggregation weights not only involve both the dataset size and the discrepancy value, but also contribute to a tighter theoretical upper bound of the optimization error. FedDisco also promotes privacy-preservation, communication and computation efficiency, as well as modularity. Extensive experiments show that our FedDisco outperforms several state-of-the-art methods and can be easily incorporated with many existing methods to further enhance the performance. Our code will be available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/FedDisco.

Data heterogeneity is an inherent challenge that hinders the performance of federated learning (FL). Recent studies have identified the biased classifiers of local models as the key bottleneck. Previous attempts have used classifier calibration after FL training, but this approach falls short in improving the poor feature representations caused by training-time classifier biases. Resolving the classifier bias dilemma in FL requires a full understanding of the mechanisms behind the classifier. Recent advances in neural collapse have shown that the classifiers and feature prototypes under perfect training scenarios collapse into an optimal structure called simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF). Building on this neural collapse insight, we propose a solution to the FL's classifier bias problem by utilizing a synthetic and fixed ETF classifier during training. The optimal classifier structure enables all clients to learn unified and optimal feature representations even under extremely heterogeneous data. We devise several effective modules to better adapt the ETF structure in FL, achieving both high generalization and personalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performances on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Tiny-ImageNet.

SGD performs worse than Adam by a significant margin on Transformers, but the reason remains unclear. In this work, we provide an explanation of SGD's failure on Transformers through the lens of Hessian: (i) Transformers are ``heterogeneous'': the Hessian spectrum across parameter blocks vary dramatically, a phenomenon we call ``block heterogeneity"; (ii) Heterogeneity hampers SGD: SGD performs badly on problems with block heterogeneity. To validate that heterogeneity hampers SGD, we check various Transformers, CNNs, MLPs, and quadratic problems, and find that SGD works well on problems without block heterogeneity but performs badly when the heterogeneity exists. Our initial theoretical analysis indicates that SGD fails because it applies one single learning rate for all blocks, which cannot handle the heterogeneity among blocks. The failure could be rescued if we could assign different learning rates across blocks, as designed in Adam.

Predicting multiple heterogeneous biological and medical targets is a challenge for traditional deep learning models. In contrast to single-task learning, in which a separate model is trained for each target, multi-task learning (MTL) optimizes a single model to predict multiple related targets simultaneously. To address this challenge, we propose the Multi-gate Mixture-of-Experts with Exclusivity (MMoEEx). Our work aims to tackle the heterogeneous MTL setting, in which the same model optimizes multiple tasks with different characteristics. Such a scenario can overwhelm current MTL approaches due to the challenges in balancing shared and task-specific representations and the need to optimize tasks with competing optimization paths. Our method makes two key contributions: first, we introduce an approach to induce more diversity among experts, thus creating representations more suitable for highly imbalanced and heterogenous MTL learning; second, we adopt a two-step optimization [6, 11] approach to balancing the tasks at the gradient level. We validate our method on three MTL benchmark datasets, including Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) and PubChem BioAssay (PCBA).

In federated learning (FL), data heterogeneity is one key bottleneck that causes model divergence and limits performance. Addressing this, existing methods often regard data heterogeneity as an inherent property and propose to mitigate its adverse effects by correcting models. In this paper, we seek to break this inherent property by generating data to complement the original dataset to fundamentally mitigate heterogeneity level. As a novel attempt from the perspective of data, we propose federated learning with consensus-oriented generation (FedCOG). FedCOG consists of two key components at the client side: complementary data generation, which generates data extracted from the shared global model to complement the original dataset, and knowledge-distillation-based model training, which distills knowledge from global model to local model based on the generated data to mitigate over-fitting the original heterogeneous dataset. FedCOG has two critical advantages: 1) it can be a plug-and-play module to further improve the performance of most existing FL methods, and 2) it is naturally compatible with standard FL protocols such as Secure Aggregation since it makes no modification in communication process. Extensive experiments on classical and real-world FL datasets show that FedCOG consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Data heterogeneity in federated learning, characterized by a significant misalignment between local and global distributions, leads to divergent local optimization directions and hinders global model training. Existing studies mainly focus on optimizing local updates or global aggregation, but these indirect approaches demonstrate instability when handling highly heterogeneous data distributions, especially in scenarios where label skew and domain skew coexist. To address this, we propose a geometry-guided data generation method that centers on simulating the global embedding distribution locally. We first introduce the concept of the geometric shape of an embedding distribution and then address the challenge of obtaining global geometric shapes under privacy constraints. Subsequently, we propose GGEUR, which leverages global geometric shapes to guide the generation of new samples, enabling a closer approximation to the ideal global distribution. In single-domain scenarios, we augment samples based on global geometric shapes to enhance model generalization; in multi-domain scenarios, we further employ class prototypes to simulate the global distribution across domains. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the performance of existing approaches in handling highly heterogeneous data, including scenarios with label skew, domain skew, and their coexistence. Code published at: https://github.com/WeiDai-David/2025CVPR_GGEUR

Previous work has highlighted that existing post-hoc explanation methods exhibit disparities in explanation fidelity (across 'race' and 'gender' as sensitive attributes), and while a large body of work focuses on mitigating these issues at the explanation metric level, the role of the data generating process and black box model in relation to explanation disparities remains largely unexplored. Accordingly, through both simulations as well as experiments on a real-world dataset, we specifically assess challenges to explanation disparities that originate from properties of the data: limited sample size, covariate shift, concept shift, omitted variable bias, and challenges based on model properties: inclusion of the sensitive attribute and appropriate functional form. Through controlled simulation analyses, our study demonstrates that increased covariate shift, concept shift, and omission of covariates increase explanation disparities, with the effect pronounced higher for neural network models that are better able to capture the underlying functional form in comparison to linear models. We also observe consistent findings regarding the effect of concept shift and omitted variable bias on explanation disparities in the Adult income dataset. Overall, results indicate that disparities in model explanations can also depend on data and model properties. Based on this systematic investigation, we provide recommendations for the design of explanation methods that mitigate undesirable disparities.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

We introduce a novel framework for simulating macroeconomic expectation formation using Large Language Model-Empowered Agents (LLM Agents). By constructing thousands of LLM Agents equipped with modules for personal characteristics, prior expectations, and knowledge, we replicate a survey experiment involving households and experts on inflation and unemployment. Our results show that although the expectations and thoughts generated by LLM Agents are more homogeneous than those of human participants, they still effectively capture key heterogeneity across agents and the underlying drivers of expectation formation. Furthermore, a module-ablation exercise highlights the critical role of prior expectations in simulating such heterogeneity. This approach complements traditional survey methods and offers new insights into AI behavioral science in macroeconomic research.

This paper explores the use of unstructured, multimodal data, namely text and images, in causal inference and treatment effect estimation. We propose a neural network architecture that is adapted to the double machine learning (DML) framework, specifically the partially linear model. An additional contribution of our paper is a new method to generate a semi-synthetic dataset which can be used to evaluate the performance of causal effect estimation in the presence of text and images as confounders. The proposed methods and architectures are evaluated on the semi-synthetic dataset and compared to standard approaches, highlighting the potential benefit of using text and images directly in causal studies. Our findings have implications for researchers and practitioners in economics, marketing, finance, medicine and data science in general who are interested in estimating causal quantities using non-traditional data.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm that enables multiple clients to learn a powerful global model by aggregating local training. However, the performance of the global model is often hampered by non-i.i.d. distribution among the clients, requiring extensive efforts to mitigate inter-client data heterogeneity. Going beyond inter-client data heterogeneity, we note that intra-client heterogeneity can also be observed on complex real-world data and seriously deteriorate FL performance. In this paper, we present a novel FL algorithm, i.e., FedIns, to handle intra-client data heterogeneity by enabling instance-adaptive inference in the FL framework. Instead of huge instance-adaptive models, we resort to a parameter-efficient fine-tuning method, i.e., scale and shift deep features (SSF), upon a pre-trained model. Specifically, we first train an SSF pool for each client, and aggregate these SSF pools on the server side, thus still maintaining a low communication cost. To enable instance-adaptive inference, for a given instance, we dynamically find the best-matched SSF subsets from the pool and aggregate them to generate an adaptive SSF specified for the instance, thereby reducing the intra-client as well as the inter-client heterogeneity. Extensive experiments show that our FedIns outperforms state-of-the-art FL algorithms, e.g., a 6.64\% improvement against the top-performing method with less than 15\% communication cost on Tiny-ImageNet. Our code and models will be publicly released.

The interest in federated learning has surged in recent research due to its unique ability to train a global model using privacy-secured information held locally on each client. This paper pays particular attention to the issue of client-side model heterogeneity, a pervasive challenge in the practical implementation of FL that escalates its complexity. Assuming a scenario where each client possesses varied memory storage, processing capabilities and network bandwidth - a phenomenon referred to as system heterogeneity - there is a pressing need to customize a unique model for each client. In response to this, we present an effective and adaptable federated framework FedP3, representing Federated Personalized and Privacy-friendly network Pruning, tailored for model heterogeneity scenarios. Our proposed methodology can incorporate and adapt well-established techniques to its specific instances. We offer a theoretical interpretation of FedP3 and its locally differential-private variant, DP-FedP3, and theoretically validate their efficiencies.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Federated Learning is a distributed learning paradigm with two key challenges that differentiate it from traditional distributed optimization: (1) significant variability in terms of the systems characteristics on each device in the network (systems heterogeneity), and (2) non-identically distributed data across the network (statistical heterogeneity). In this work, we introduce a framework, FedProx, to tackle heterogeneity in federated networks. FedProx can be viewed as a generalization and re-parametrization of FedAvg, the current state-of-the-art method for federated learning. While this re-parameterization makes only minor modifications to the method itself, these modifications have important ramifications both in theory and in practice. Theoretically, we provide convergence guarantees for our framework when learning over data from non-identical distributions (statistical heterogeneity), and while adhering to device-level systems constraints by allowing each participating device to perform a variable amount of work (systems heterogeneity). Practically, we demonstrate that FedProx allows for more robust convergence than FedAvg across a suite of realistic federated datasets. In particular, in highly heterogeneous settings, FedProx demonstrates significantly more stable and accurate convergence behavior relative to FedAvg---improving absolute test accuracy by 22% on average.

AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.

Foundation models are first pre-trained on vast unsupervised datasets and then fine-tuned on labeled data. Reinforcement learning, notably from human feedback (RLHF), can further align the network with the intended usage. Yet the imperfections in the proxy reward may hinder the training and lead to suboptimal results; the diversity of objectives in real-world tasks and human opinions exacerbate the issue. This paper proposes embracing the heterogeneity of diverse rewards by following a multi-policy strategy. Rather than focusing on a single a priori reward, we aim for Pareto-optimal generalization across the entire space of preferences. To this end, we propose rewarded soup, first specializing multiple networks independently (one for each proxy reward) and then interpolating their weights linearly. This succeeds empirically because we show that the weights remain linearly connected when fine-tuned on diverse rewards from a shared pre-trained initialization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for text-to-text (summarization, Q&A, helpful assistant, review), text-image (image captioning, text-to-image generation, visual grounding, VQA), and control (locomotion) tasks. We hope to enhance the alignment of deep models, and how they interact with the world in all its diversity.

Large language models (LLMs) tend to generate lexically, semantically, and stylistically homogenous texts. This poses a risk of knowledge collapse, where homogenous LLMs mediate a shrinking in the range of accessible information over time. Existing works on homogenization are limited by a focus on closed-ended multiple-choice setups or fuzzy semantic features, and do not look at trends across time and cultural contexts. To overcome this, we present a new methodology to measure epistemic diversity, i.e., variation in real-world claims in LLM outputs, which we use to perform a broad empirical study of LLM knowledge collapse. We test 27 LLMs, 155 topics covering 12 countries, and 200 prompt variations sourced from real user chats. For the topics in our study, we show that while newer models tend to generate more diverse claims, nearly all models are less epistemically diverse than a basic web search. We find that model size has a negative impact on epistemic diversity, while retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has a positive impact, though the improvement from RAG varies by the cultural context. Finally, compared to a traditional knowledge source (Wikipedia), we find that country-specific claims reflect the English language more than the local one, highlighting a gap in epistemic representation

Federated Learning (FL) is a rising approach towards collaborative and privacy-preserving machine learning where large-scale medical datasets remain localized to each client. However, the issue of data heterogeneity among clients often compels local models to diverge, leading to suboptimal global models. To mitigate the impact of data heterogeneity on FL performance, we start with analyzing how FL training influence FL performance by decomposing the global loss into three terms: local loss, distribution shift loss and aggregation loss. Remarkably, our loss decomposition reveals that existing local training-based FL methods attempt to reduce the distribution shift loss, while the global aggregation-based FL methods propose better aggregation strategies to reduce the aggregation loss. Nevertheless, a comprehensive joint effort to minimize all three terms is currently limited in the literature, leading to subpar performance when dealing with data heterogeneity challenges. To fill this gap, we propose a novel FL method based on global loss decomposition, called FedLD, to jointly reduce these three loss terms. Our FedLD involves a margin control regularization in local training to reduce the distribution shift loss, and a principal gradient-based server aggregation strategy to reduce the aggregation loss. Notably, under different levels of data heterogeneity, our strategies achieve better and more robust performance on retinal and chest X-ray classification compared to other FL algorithms. Our code is available at https://github.com/Zeng-Shuang/FedLD.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

Classic results establish that encouraging predictive diversity improves performance in ensembles of low-capacity models, e.g. through bagging or boosting. Here we demonstrate that these intuitions do not apply to high-capacity neural network ensembles (deep ensembles), and in fact the opposite is often true. In a large scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, we examine a variety of interventions that trade off component model performance for predictive diversity. While such interventions can improve the performance of small neural network ensembles (in line with standard intuitions), they harm the performance of the large neural network ensembles most often used in practice. Surprisingly, we also find that discouraging predictive diversity is often benign in large-network ensembles, fully inverting standard intuitions. Even when diversity-promoting interventions do not sacrifice component model performance (e.g. using heterogeneous architectures and training paradigms), we observe an opportunity cost associated with pursuing increased predictive diversity. Examining over 1000 ensembles, we observe that the performance benefits of diverse architectures/training procedures are easily dwarfed by the benefits of simply using higher-capacity models, despite the fact that such higher capacity models often yield significantly less predictive diversity. Overall, our findings demonstrate that standard intuitions around predictive diversity, originally developed for low-capacity ensembles, do not directly apply to modern high-capacity deep ensembles. This work clarifies fundamental challenges to the goal of improving deep ensembles by making them more diverse, while suggesting an alternative path: simply forming ensembles from ever more powerful (and less diverse) component models.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Both biological and artificial neural networks inherently balance their performance with their operational cost, which balances their computational abilities. Typically, an efficient neuromorphic neural network is one that learns representations that reduce the redundancies and dimensionality of its input. This is for instance achieved in sparse coding, and sparse representations derived from natural images yield representations that are heterogeneous, both in their sampling of input features and in the variance of those features. Here, we investigated the connection between natural images' structure, particularly oriented features, and their corresponding sparse codes. We showed that representations of input features scattered across multiple levels of variance substantially improve the sparseness and resilience of sparse codes, at the cost of reconstruction performance. This echoes the structure of the model's input, allowing to account for the heterogeneously aleatoric structures of natural images. We demonstrate that learning kernel from natural images produces heterogeneity by balancing between approximate and dense representations, which improves all reconstruction metrics. Using a parametrized control of the kernels' heterogeneity used by a convolutional sparse coding algorithm, we show that heterogeneity emphasizes sparseness, while homogeneity improves representation granularity. In a broader context, these encoding strategy can serve as inputs to deep convolutional neural networks. We prove that such variance-encoded sparse image datasets enhance computational efficiency, emphasizing the benefits of kernel heterogeneity to leverage naturalistic and variant input structures and possible applications to improve the throughput of neuromorphic hardware.

Uplift modeling, vital in online marketing, seeks to accurately measure the impact of various strategies, such as coupons or discounts, on different users by predicting the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). In an e-commerce setting, user behavior follows a defined sequential chain, including impression, click, and conversion. Marketing strategies exert varied uplift effects at each stage within this chain, impacting metrics like click-through and conversion rate. Despite its utility, existing research has neglected to consider the inter-task across all stages impacts within a specific treatment and has insufficiently utilized the treatment information, potentially introducing substantial bias into subsequent marketing decisions. We identify these two issues as the chain-bias problem and the treatment-unadaptive problem. This paper introduces the Entire Chain UPlift method with context-enhanced learning (ECUP), devised to tackle these issues. ECUP consists of two primary components: 1) the Entire Chain-Enhanced Network, which utilizes user behavior patterns to estimate ITE throughout the entire chain space, models the various impacts of treatments on each task, and integrates task prior information to enhance context awareness across all stages, capturing the impact of treatment on different tasks, and 2) the Treatment-Enhanced Network, which facilitates fine-grained treatment modeling through bit-level feature interactions, thereby enabling adaptive feature adjustment. Extensive experiments on public and industrial datasets validate ECUPs effectiveness. Moreover, ECUP has been deployed on the Meituan food delivery platform, serving millions of daily active users, with the related dataset released for future research.

This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of how quantization affects model bias, with particular attention to its impact on individual demographic subgroups. We focus on weight and activation quantization strategies and examine their effects across a broad range of bias types, including stereotypes, toxicity, sentiment, and fairness. We employ both probabilistic and generated text-based metrics across nine benchmarks and evaluate models varying in architecture family and reasoning ability. Our findings show that quantization has a nuanced impact on bias: while it can reduce model toxicity and does not significantly impact sentiment, it tends to slightly increase stereotypes and unfairness in generative tasks, especially under aggressive compression. These trends are generally consistent across demographic categories and model types, although their magnitude depends on the specific setting. Overall, our results highlight the importance of carefully balancing efficiency and ethical considerations when applying quantization in practice.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Misinformation - false or misleading information - is considered a significant societal concern due to its associated "misinformation effects," such as political polarization, erosion of trust in institutions, problematic behavior, and public health challenges. However, the prevailing concept is misaligned with what is studied. While misinformation focuses on instances of information about factual matters, the broad spectrum of effects often manifests at a societal level and is shaped by a wide range of interdependent factors such as identity, values, opinions, epistemologies, and disagreements. Unsurprisingly, misinformation effects can occur without the prevalence of misinformation, and misinformation does not necessarily increase the effects studied. Here, we propose using disagreement - conflicting attitudes and beliefs between individuals and communities - as a way to study misinformation effects because it addresses the identified conceptual limitations of misinformation. Furthermore, unlike misinformation, disagreement does not require researchers to determine whether a given information is false or misleading. Thus, it can be studied and, more importantly, measured without the need to make a normative judgment about a given information, even when the specific topic is entirely removed, as we show in a longitudinal disagreement measurement. We demonstrate that disagreement, as a holistic concept, provides better explanations for the occurrence of misinformation effects, enhances precision in developing appropriate interventions, and offers a promising approach for evaluating them through quantification. Finally, we show how disagreement addresses current misinformation research questions and conclude with recommendations for research practice.

This study presents PARROT (Persuasion and Agreement Robustness Rating of Output Truth), a robustness focused framework designed to measure the degradation in accuracy that occurs under social pressure exerted on users through authority and persuasion in large language models (LLMs) the phenomenon of sycophancy (excessive conformity). PARROT (i) isolates causal effects by comparing the neutral version of the same question with an authoritatively false version using a double-blind evaluation, (ii) quantifies confidence shifts toward the correct and imposed false responses using log-likelihood-based calibration tracking, and (iii) systematically classifies failure modes (e.g., robust correct, sycophantic agreement, reinforced error, stubborn error, self-correction, etc.) using an eight-state behavioral taxonomy. We evaluated 22 models using 1,302 MMLU-style multiple-choice questions across 13 domains and domain-specific authority templates. Findings show marked heterogeneity: advanced models (e.g., GPT-5, GPT-4.1, Claude Sonnet 4.5) exhibit low "follow rates" (leq 11%, GPT-5: 4\%) and minimal accuracy loss, while older/smaller models show severe epistemic collapse (GPT-4: 80\%, Qwen 2.5-1.5B: 94\%). The danger is not limited to response changes; weak models reduce confidence in the correct response while increasing confidence in the imposed incorrect response. While international law and global knowledge at the domain level exhibit high fragility, elementary mathematics is relatively resilient. Consequently, we argue that the goal of "resistance to overfitting pressure" should be addressed as a primary objective alongside accuracy, harm avoidance, and privacy for safe deployment in the real world.

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear CIV regression with Confounding Balancing Representation Learning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out-of-the-box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model does not require any further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN).

Interference is ubiquitous when conducting causal experiments over networks. Except for certain network structures, causal inference on the network in the presence of interference is difficult due to the entanglement between the treatment assignments and the interference levels. In this article, we conduct causal inference under interference on an observed, sparse but connected network, and we propose a novel design of experiments based on an independent set. Compared to conventional designs, the independent-set design focuses on an independent subset of data and controls their interference exposures through the assignments to the rest (auxiliary set). We provide a lower bound on the size of the independent set from a greedy algorithm , and justify the theoretical performance of estimators under the proposed design. Our approach is capable of estimating both spillover effects and treatment effects. We justify its superiority over conventional methods and illustrate the empirical performance through simulations.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

In reinforcement learning from human feedback, it is common to optimize against a reward model trained to predict human preferences. Because the reward model is an imperfect proxy, optimizing its value too much can hinder ground truth performance, in accordance with Goodhart's law. This effect has been frequently observed, but not carefully measured due to the expense of collecting human preference data. In this work, we use a synthetic setup in which a fixed "gold-standard" reward model plays the role of humans, providing labels used to train a proxy reward model. We study how the gold reward model score changes as we optimize against the proxy reward model using either reinforcement learning or best-of-n sampling. We find that this relationship follows a different functional form depending on the method of optimization, and that in both cases its coefficients scale smoothly with the number of reward model parameters. We also study the effect on this relationship of the size of the reward model dataset, the number of reward model and policy parameters, and the coefficient of the KL penalty added to the reward in the reinforcement learning setup. We explore the implications of these empirical results for theoretical considerations in AI alignment.

An oft-cited open problem of federated learning is the existence of data heterogeneity at the clients. One pathway to understanding the drastic accuracy drop in federated learning is by scrutinizing the behavior of the clients' deep models on data with different levels of "difficulty", which has been left unaddressed. In this paper, we investigate a different and rarely studied dimension of FL: ordered learning. Specifically, we aim to investigate how ordered learning principles can contribute to alleviating the heterogeneity effects in FL. We present theoretical analysis and conduct extensive empirical studies on the efficacy of orderings spanning three kinds of learning: curriculum, anti-curriculum, and random curriculum. We find that curriculum learning largely alleviates non-IIDness. Interestingly, the more disparate the data distributions across clients the more they benefit from ordered learning. We provide analysis explaining this phenomenon, specifically indicating how curriculum training appears to make the objective landscape progressively less convex, suggesting fast converging iterations at the beginning of the training procedure. We derive quantitative results of convergence for both convex and nonconvex objectives by modeling the curriculum training on federated devices as local SGD with locally biased stochastic gradients. Also, inspired by ordered learning, we propose a novel client selection technique that benefits from the real-world disparity in the clients. Our proposed approach to client selection has a synergic effect when applied together with ordered learning in FL.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

The proliferation of pretrained models, as a result of advancements in pretraining techniques, has led to the emergence of a vast zoo of publicly available models. Effectively utilizing these resources to obtain models with robust out-of-distribution generalization capabilities for downstream tasks has become a crucial area of research. Previous research has primarily focused on identifying the most powerful models within the model zoo, neglecting to fully leverage the diverse inductive biases contained within. This paper argues that the knowledge contained in weaker models is valuable and presents a method for leveraging the diversity within the model zoo to improve out-of-distribution generalization capabilities. Specifically, we investigate the behaviors of various pretrained models across different domains of downstream tasks by characterizing the variations in their encoded representations in terms of two dimensions: diversity shift and correlation shift. This characterization enables us to propose a new algorithm for integrating diverse pretrained models, not limited to the strongest models, in order to achieve enhanced out-of-distribution generalization performance. Our proposed method demonstrates state-of-the-art empirical results on a variety of datasets, thus validating the benefits of utilizing diverse knowledge.

Diffusion models have demonstrated impressive capabilities in synthesizing diverse content. However, despite their high-quality outputs, these models often perpetuate social biases, including those related to gender and race. These biases can potentially contribute to harmful real-world consequences, reinforcing stereotypes and exacerbating inequalities in various social contexts. While existing research on diffusion bias mitigation has predominantly focused on guiding content generation, it often neglects the intrinsic mechanisms within diffusion models that causally drive biased outputs. In this paper, we investigate the internal processes of diffusion models, identifying specific decision-making mechanisms, termed bias features, embedded within the model architecture. By directly manipulating these features, our method precisely isolates and adjusts the elements responsible for bias generation, permitting granular control over the bias levels in the generated content. Through experiments on both unconditional and conditional diffusion models across various social bias attributes, we demonstrate our method's efficacy in managing generation distribution while preserving image quality. We also dissect the discovered model mechanism, revealing different intrinsic features controlling fine-grained aspects of generation, boosting further research on mechanistic interpretability of diffusion models.

Learning the response of single-cells to various treatments offers great potential to enable targeted therapies. In this context, neural optimal transport (OT) has emerged as a principled methodological framework because it inherently accommodates the challenges of unpaired data induced by cell destruction during data acquisition. However, most existing OT approaches are incapable of conditioning on different treatment contexts (e.g., time, drug treatment, drug dosage, or cell type) and we still lack methods that unanimously show promising generalization performance to unseen treatments. Here, we propose the Conditional Monge Gap which learns OT maps conditionally on arbitrary covariates. We demonstrate its value in predicting single-cell perturbation responses conditional to one or multiple drugs, a drug dosage, or combinations thereof. We find that our conditional models achieve results comparable and sometimes even superior to the condition-specific state-of-the-art on scRNA-seq as well as multiplexed protein imaging data. Notably, by aggregating data across conditions we perform cross-task learning which unlocks remarkable generalization abilities to unseen drugs or drug dosages, widely outperforming other conditional models in capturing heterogeneity (i.e., higher moments) in the perturbed population. Finally, by scaling to hundreds of conditions and testing on unseen drugs, we narrow the gap between structure-based and effect-based drug representations, suggesting a promising path to the successful prediction of perturbation effects for unseen treatments.

Federated Learning (FL) is an emerging distributed learning paradigm under privacy constraint. Data heterogeneity is one of the main challenges in FL, which results in slow convergence and degraded performance. Most existing approaches only tackle the heterogeneity challenge by restricting the local model update in client, ignoring the performance drop caused by direct global model aggregation. Instead, we propose a data-free knowledge distillation method to fine-tune the global model in the server (FedFTG), which relieves the issue of direct model aggregation. Concretely, FedFTG explores the input space of local models through a generator, and uses it to transfer the knowledge from local models to the global model. Besides, we propose a hard sample mining scheme to achieve effective knowledge distillation throughout the training. In addition, we develop customized label sampling and class-level ensemble to derive maximum utilization of knowledge, which implicitly mitigates the distribution discrepancy across clients. Extensive experiments show that our FedFTG significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) FL algorithms and can serve as a strong plugin for enhancing FedAvg, FedProx, FedDyn, and SCAFFOLD.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

In heterogeneous multi-task decision-making, tasks not only exhibit diverse observation and action spaces but also vary substantially in their underlying complexities. While conventional multi-task world models like UniZero excel in single-task settings, we find that when handling a broad and diverse suite of tasks, gradient conflicts and the loss of model plasticity often constrain their sample efficiency. In this work, we address these challenges from two complementary perspectives: the single learning iteration and the overall learning process. First, to mitigate the gradient conflicts, we systematically investigate key architectural designs for extending UniZero. Our investigation identifies a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture as the most effective approach. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that this architecture alleviates gradient conflicts by routing task-specific representations to specialized sub-networks. This finding leads to our proposed model, ScaleZero. Second, to dynamically allocate model capacity throughout the learning process, we introduce an online Dynamic Parameter Scaling (DPS) strategy. This strategy progressively integrates LoRA adapters in response to task-specific progress, enabling adaptive knowledge retention and parameter expansion. Evaluations on a diverse set of standard benchmarks (Atari, DMC, Jericho) demonstrate that ScaleZero, utilizing solely online reinforcement learning with one model, performs on par with specialized single-task agents. With the DPS strategy, it remains competitive while using just 71.5% of the environment interactions. These findings underscore the potential of ScaleZero for effective multi-task planning. Our code is available at magenta{https://github.com/opendilab/LightZero}.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Enabling children to acquire an education is one of the most effective means to reduce inequality, poverty, and ill-health globally. While in normal times a government controls its educational policies, during times of macroeconomic instability, that control may shift to supporting international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While much research has focused on which sectors has been affected by IMF policies, scholars have devoted little attention to the policy content of IMF interventions affecting the education sector and childrens education outcomes: denoted IMF education policies. This article evaluates the extent which IMF education policies exist in all programs and how these policies and IMF programs affect childrens likelihood of completing schools. While IMF education policies have a small adverse effect yet statistically insignificant on childrens probability of completing school, these policies moderate effect heterogeneity for IMF programs. The effect of IMF programs (joint set of policies) adversely effect childrens chances of completing school by six percentage points. By analyzing how IMF-education policies but also how IMF programs affect the education sector in low and middle-income countries, scholars will gain a deeper understanding of how such policies will likely affect downstream outcomes.

Predicting how different interventions will causally affect a specific individual is important in a variety of domains such as personalized medicine, public policy, and online marketing. There are a large number of methods to predict the effect of an existing intervention based on historical data from individuals who received it. However, in many settings it is important to predict the effects of novel interventions (e.g., a newly invented drug), which these methods do not address. Here, we consider zero-shot causal learning: predicting the personalized effects of a novel intervention. We propose CaML, a causal meta-learning framework which formulates the personalized prediction of each intervention's effect as a task. CaML trains a single meta-model across thousands of tasks, each constructed by sampling an intervention, along with its recipients and nonrecipients. By leveraging both intervention information (e.g., a drug's attributes) and individual features~(e.g., a patient's history), CaML is able to predict the personalized effects of novel interventions that do not exist at the time of training. Experimental results on real world datasets in large-scale medical claims and cell-line perturbations demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Most strikingly, CaML's zero-shot predictions outperform even strong baselines trained directly on data from the test interventions.

Fairness in recommender systems (RSs) is commonly categorised into group fairness and individual fairness. However, there is no established scientific understanding of the relationship between the two fairness types, as prior work on both types has used different evaluation measures or evaluation objectives for each fairness type, thereby not allowing for a proper comparison of the two. As a result, it is currently not known how increasing one type of fairness may affect the other. To fill this gap, we study the relationship of group and individual fairness through a comprehensive comparison of evaluation measures that can be used for both fairness types. Our experiments with 8 runs across 3 datasets show that recommendations that are highly fair for groups can be very unfair for individuals. Our finding is novel and useful for RS practitioners aiming to improve the fairness of their systems. Our code is available at: https://github.com/theresiavr/stairway-to-fairness.

Federated Learning (FL) models often experience client drift caused by heterogeneous data, where the distribution of data differs across clients. To address this issue, advanced research primarily focuses on manipulating the existing gradients to achieve more consistent client models. In this paper, we present an alternative perspective on client drift and aim to mitigate it by generating improved local models. First, we analyze the generalization contribution of local training and conclude that this generalization contribution is bounded by the conditional Wasserstein distance between the data distribution of different clients. Then, we propose FedImpro, to construct similar conditional distributions for local training. Specifically, FedImpro decouples the model into high-level and low-level components, and trains the high-level portion on reconstructed feature distributions. This approach enhances the generalization contribution and reduces the dissimilarity of gradients in FL. Experimental results show that FedImpro can help FL defend against data heterogeneity and enhance the generalization performance of the model.

While prior domain generalization (DG) benchmarks consider train-test dataset heterogeneity, we evaluate Federated DG which introduces federated learning (FL) specific challenges. Additionally, we explore domain-based heterogeneity in clients' local datasets - a realistic Federated DG scenario. Prior Federated DG evaluations are limited in terms of the number or heterogeneity of clients and dataset diversity. To address this gap, we propose an Federated DG benchmark methodology that enables control of the number and heterogeneity of clients and provides metrics for dataset difficulty. We then apply our methodology to evaluate 13 Federated DG methods, which include centralized DG methods adapted to the FL context, FL methods that handle client heterogeneity, and methods designed specifically for Federated DG. Our results suggest that despite some progress, there remain significant performance gaps in Federated DG particularly when evaluating with a large number of clients, high client heterogeneity, or more realistic datasets. Please check our extendable benchmark code here: https://github.com/inouye-lab/FedDG_Benchmark.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Existing theoretical studies on offline reinforcement learning (RL) mostly consider a dataset sampled directly from the target task. In practice, however, data often come from several heterogeneous but related sources. Motivated by this gap, this work aims at rigorously understanding offline RL with multiple datasets that are collected from randomly perturbed versions of the target task instead of from itself. An information-theoretic lower bound is derived, which reveals a necessary requirement on the number of involved sources in addition to that on the number of data samples. Then, a novel HetPEVI algorithm is proposed, which simultaneously considers the sample uncertainties from a finite number of data samples per data source and the source uncertainties due to a finite number of available data sources. Theoretical analyses demonstrate that HetPEVI can solve the target task as long as the data sources collectively provide a good data coverage. Moreover, HetPEVI is demonstrated to be optimal up to a polynomial factor of the horizon length. Finally, the study is extended to offline Markov games and offline robust RL, which demonstrates the generality of the proposed designs and theoretical analyses.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are currently becoming the leading paradigm of generative modeling for many important data modalities. Being the most prevalent in the computer vision community, diffusion models have also recently gained some attention in other domains, including speech, NLP, and graph-like data. In this work, we investigate if the framework of diffusion models can be advantageous for general tabular problems, where datapoints are typically represented by vectors of heterogeneous features. The inherent heterogeneity of tabular data makes it quite challenging for accurate modeling, since the individual features can be of completely different nature, i.e., some of them can be continuous and some of them can be discrete. To address such data types, we introduce TabDDPM -- a diffusion model that can be universally applied to any tabular dataset and handles any type of feature. We extensively evaluate TabDDPM on a wide set of benchmarks and demonstrate its superiority over existing GAN/VAE alternatives, which is consistent with the advantage of diffusion models in other fields. Additionally, we show that TabDDPM is eligible for privacy-oriented setups, where the original datapoints cannot be publicly shared.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.