Daily Papers

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is an essential and effective tool for diagnosing heart diseases. However, its effectiveness can be compromised by noise or unavailability of one or more leads of the standard 12-lead recordings, resulting in diagnostic errors or uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose TolerantECG, a foundation model for ECG signals that is robust to noise and capable of functioning with arbitrary subsets of the standard 12-lead ECG. TolerantECG training combines contrastive and self-supervised learning frameworks to jointly learn ECG signal representations alongside their corresponding knowledge-retrieval-based text report descriptions and corrupted or lead-missing signals. Comprehensive benchmarking results demonstrate that TolerantECG consistently ranks as the best or second-best performer across various ECG signal conditions and class levels in the PTB-XL dataset, and achieves the highest performance on the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signal generation has been heavily explored using generative adversarial networks (GAN) because the implementation of 12-lead ECGs is not always feasible. The GAN models have achieved remarkable results in reproducing ECG signals but are only designed for multiple lead inputs and the features the GAN model preserves have not been identified-limiting the generated signals use in cardiovascular disease (CVD)-predictive models. This paper presents ECGNet which is a procedure that generates a complete set of 12-lead ECG signals from any single lead input using a GAN framework with a bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) generator and a convolutional neural network (CNN) discriminator. Cross and auto-correlation analysis performed on the generated signals identifies features conserved during the signal generation-i.e., features that can characterize the unique-nature of each signal and thus likely indicators of CVD. Finally, by using ECG signals annotated with the CVD-indicative features detailed by the correlation analysis as inputs for a CVD-onset-predictive CNN model, we overcome challenges preventing the prediction of multiple-CVD targets. Our models are experimented on 15s 12-lead ECG dataset recorded using MyoVista's wavECG. Functional outcome data for each patient is recorded and used in the CVD-predictive model. Our best GAN model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with Frechet Distance (FD) scores of 4.73, 4.89, 5.18, 4.77, 4.71, and 5.55 on the V1-V6 pre-cordial leads respectively and shows strength in preserving the P-Q segments and R-peaks in the generated signals. To the best of our knowledge, ECGNet is the first to predict all of the remaining eleven leads from the input of any single lead.

Twelve-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) are the clinical gold standard for cardiac diagnosis, providing comprehensive spatial coverage of the heart necessary to detect conditions such as myocardial infarction (MI). However, their lack of portability limits continuous and large-scale use. Three-lead ECG systems are widely used in wearable devices due to their simplicity and mobility, but they often fail to capture pathologies in unmeasured regions. To address this, we propose WearECG, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) method that reconstructs twelve-lead ECGs from three leads: II, V1, and V5. Our model includes architectural improvements to better capture temporal and spatial dependencies in ECG signals. We evaluate generation quality using MSE, MAE, and Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and assess clinical validity via a Turing test with expert cardiologists. To further validate diagnostic utility, we fine-tune ECGFounder, a large-scale pretrained ECG model, on a multi-label classification task involving over 40 cardiac conditions, including six different myocardial infarction locations, using both real and generated signals. Experiments on the MIMIC dataset show that our method produces physiologically realistic and diagnostically informative signals, with robust performance in downstream tasks. This work demonstrates the potential of generative modeling for ECG reconstruction and its implications for scalable, low-cost cardiac screening.

Photoplethysmogram (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) are commonly recorded in intesive care unit (ICU) and operating room (OR). However, the high incidence of poor, incomplete, and inconsistent signal quality, can lead to false alarms or diagnostic inaccuracies. The methods explored so far suffer from limited generalizability, reliance on extensive labeled data, and poor cross-task transferability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce QualityFM, a novel multimodal foundation model for these physiological signals, designed to acquire a general-purpose understanding of signal quality. Our model is pre-trained on an large-scale dataset comprising over 21 million 30-second waveforms and 179,757 hours of data. Our approach involves a dual-track architecture that processes paired physiological signals of differing quality, leveraging a self-distillation strategy where an encoder for high-quality signals is used to guide the training of an encoder for low-quality signals. To efficiently handle long sequential signals and capture essential local quasi-periodic patterns, we integrate a windowed sparse attention mechanism within our Transformer-based model. Furthermore, a composite loss function, which combines direct distillation loss on encoder outputs with indirect reconstruction loss based on power and phase spectra, ensures the preservation of frequency-domain characteristics of the signals. We pre-train three models with varying parameter counts (9.6 M to 319 M) and demonstrate their efficacy and practical value through transfer learning on three distinct clinical tasks: false alarm of ventricular tachycardia detection, the identification of atrial fibrillation and the estimation of arterial blood pressure (ABP) from PPG and ECG signals.

Printed Circuit Boards are the foundation for the functioning of any electronic device, and therefore are an essential component for various industries such as automobile, communication, computation, etc. However, one of the challenges faced by the PCB manufacturers in the process of manufacturing of the PCBs is the faulty placement of its components including missing components. In the present scenario the infrastructure required to ensure adequate quality of the PCB requires a lot of time and effort. The authors present a novel solution for detecting missing components and classifying them in a resourceful manner. The presented algorithm focuses on pixel theory and object detection, which has been used in combination to optimize the results from the given dataset.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used reliable, non-invasive approach for cardiovascular disease diagnosis. With the rapid growth of ECG examinations and the insufficiency of cardiologists, accurate and automatic diagnosis of ECG signals has become a hot research topic. Deep learning methods have demonstrated promising results in predictive healthcare tasks. In this paper, we developed a deep neural network for multi-label classification of cardiac arrhythmias in 12-lead ECG recordings. Experiments on a public 12-lead ECG dataset showed the effectiveness of our method. The proposed model achieved an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.970 and an average F1 score of 0.813. The deep model showed superior performance than 4 machine learning methods learned from extracted expert features. Besides, the deep models trained on single-lead ECGs produce lower performance than using all 12 leads simultaneously. The best-performing leads are lead I, aVR, and V5 among 12 leads. Finally, we employed the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to interpret the model's behavior at both patient level and population level. Our code is freely available at https://github.com/onlyzdd/ecg-diagnosis.

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that na\"ively combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Multivariate time series data in practical applications, such as health care, geoscience, and biology, are characterized by a variety of missing values. In time series prediction and other related tasks, it has been noted that missing values and their missing patterns are often correlated with the target labels, a.k.a., informative missingness. There is very limited work on exploiting the missing patterns for effective imputation and improving prediction performance. In this paper, we develop novel deep learning models, namely GRU-D, as one of the early attempts. GRU-D is based on Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), a state-of-the-art recurrent neural network. It takes two representations of missing patterns, i.e., masking and time interval, and effectively incorporates them into a deep model architecture so that it not only captures the long-term temporal dependencies in time series, but also utilizes the missing patterns to achieve better prediction results. Experiments of time series classification tasks on real-world clinical datasets (MIMIC-III, PhysioNet) and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our models achieve state-of-the-art performance and provides useful insights for better understanding and utilization of missing values in time series analysis.

Accurate classification of sleep stages from less obtrusive sensor measurements such as the electrocardiogram (ECG) or photoplethysmogram (PPG) could enable important applications in sleep medicine. Existing approaches to this problem have typically used deep learning models designed and trained to operate on one or more specific input signals. However, the datasets used to develop these models often do not contain the same sets of input signals. Some signals, particularly PPG, are much less prevalent than others, and this has previously been addressed with techniques such as transfer learning. Additionally, only training on one or more fixed modalities precludes cross-modal information transfer from other sources, which has proved valuable in other problem domains. To address this, we introduce wav2sleep, a unified model designed to operate on variable sets of input signals during training and inference. After jointly training on over 10,000 overnight recordings from six publicly available polysomnography datasets, including SHHS and MESA, wav2sleep outperforms existing sleep stage classification models across test-time input combinations including ECG, PPG, and respiratory signals.

Conventional multi-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) systems capture cardiac signals from a fixed set of anatomical viewpoints defined by lead placement. However, certain cardiac conditions (e.g., Brugada syndrome) require additional, non-standard viewpoints to reveal diagnostically critical patterns that may be absent in standard leads. To systematically overcome this limitation, Nef-Net was recently introduced to reconstruct a continuous electrocardiac field, enabling virtual observation of ECG signals from arbitrary views (termed Electrocardio Panorama). Despite its promise, Nef-Net operates under idealized assumptions and faces in-the-wild challenges, such as long-duration ECG modeling, robustness to device-specific signal artifacts, and suboptimal lead placement calibration. This paper presents NEF-NET+, an enhanced framework for realistic panoramic ECG synthesis that supports arbitrary-length signal synthesis from any desired view, generalizes across ECG devices, and compensates for operator-induced deviations in electrode placement. These capabilities are enabled by a newly designed model architecture that performs direct view transformation, incorporating a workflow comprising offline pretraining, device calibration tuning steps as well as an on-the-fly calibration step for patient-specific adaptation. To rigorously evaluate panoramic ECG synthesis, we construct a new Electrocardio Panorama benchmark, called Panobench, comprising 5367 recordings with 48-view per subject, capturing the full spatial variability of cardiac electrical activity. Experimental results show that NEF-NET+ delivers substantial improvements over Nef-Net, yielding an increase of around 6 dB in PSNR in real-world setting. The code and Panobench will be released in a subsequent publication.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Missing values are common in real-world time series, and multivariate time series forecasting with missing values (MTSF-M) has become a crucial area of research for ensuring reliable predictions. To address the challenge of missing data, current approaches have developed an imputation-then-prediction framework that uses imputation modules to fill in missing values, followed by forecasting on the imputed data. However, this framework overlooks a critical issue: there is no ground truth for the missing values, making the imputation process susceptible to errors that can degrade prediction accuracy. In this paper, we conduct a systematic empirical study and reveal that imputation without direct supervision can corrupt the underlying data distribution and actively degrade prediction accuracy. To address this, we propose a paradigm shift that moves away from imputation and directly predicts from the partially observed time series. We introduce Consistency-Regularized Information Bottleneck (CRIB), a novel framework built on the Information Bottleneck principle. CRIB combines a unified-variate attention mechanism with a consistency regularization scheme to learn robust representations that filter out noise introduced by missing values while preserving essential predictive signals. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CRIB, which predicts accurately even under high missing rates. Our code is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/CRIB.

Electrocardiograms (ECGs) are among the most widely used diagnostic tools for cardiovascular diseases, and a large amount of ECG data worldwide appears only in image form. However, most existing automated ECG analysis methods rely on access to raw signal recordings, limiting their applicability in real-world and resource-constrained settings. In this paper, we present ECG-Scan, a self-supervised framework for learning clinically generalized representations from ECG images through dual physiological-aware alignments: 1) Our approach optimizes image representation learning using multimodal contrastive alignment between image and gold-standard signal-text modalities. 2) We further integrate domain knowledge via soft-lead constraints, regularizing the reconstruction process and improving signal lead inter-consistency. Extensive benchmarking across multiple datasets and downstream tasks demonstrates that our image-based model achieves superior performance compared to existing image baselines and notably narrows the gap between ECG image and signal analysis. These results highlight the potential of self-supervised image modeling to unlock large-scale legacy ECG data and broaden access to automated cardiovascular diagnostics.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

Anomaly detection in 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) is critical for identifying deviations associated with cardiovascular disease. This work presents a comparative analysis of three autoencoder-based architectures: convolutional autoencoder (CAE), variational autoencoder with bidirectional long short-term memory (VAE-BiLSTM), and VAE-BiLSTM with multi-head attention (VAE-BiLSTM-MHA), for unsupervised anomaly detection in ECGs. To the best of our knowledge, this study reports the first application of a VAE-BiLSTM-MHA architecture to ECG anomaly detection. All models are trained on normal ECG samples to reconstruct non-anomalous cardiac morphology and detect deviations indicative of disease. Using a unified preprocessing and evaluation pipeline on the public China Physiological Signal Challenge (CPSC) dataset, the attention-augmented VAE achieves the best performance, with an AUPRC of 0.81 and a recall of 0.85 on the held-out test set, outperforming the other architectures. To support clinical triage, this model is further integrated into an interactive dashboard that visualizes anomaly localization. In addition, a performance comparison with baseline models from the literature is provided.

Two different approaches exist to handle missing values for prediction: either imputation, prior to fitting any predictive algorithms, or dedicated methods able to natively incorporate missing values. While imputation is widely (and easily) use, it is unfortunately biased when low-capacity predictors (such as linear models) are applied afterward. However, in practice, naive imputation exhibits good predictive performance. In this paper, we study the impact of imputation in a high-dimensional linear model with MCAR missing data. We prove that zero imputation performs an implicit regularization closely related to the ridge method, often used in high-dimensional problems. Leveraging on this connection, we establish that the imputation bias is controlled by a ridge bias, which vanishes in high dimension. As a predictor, we argue in favor of the averaged SGD strategy, applied to zero-imputed data. We establish an upper bound on its generalization error, highlighting that imputation is benign in the d sqrt n regime. Experiments illustrate our findings.

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signals are often degraded by noise, which complicates diagnosis in clinical and wearable settings. This study proposes a diffusion-based framework for ECG noise quantification via reconstruction-based anomaly detection, addressing annotation inconsistencies and the limited generalizability of conventional methods. We introduce a distributional evaluation using the Wasserstein-1 distance (W_1), comparing the reconstruction error distributions between clean and noisy ECGs to mitigate inconsistent annotations. Our final model achieved robust noise quantification using only three reverse diffusion steps. The model recorded a macro-average W_1 score of 1.308 across the benchmarks, outperforming the next-best method by over 48%. External validations demonstrated strong generalizability, supporting the exclusion of low-quality segments to enhance diagnostic accuracy and enable timely clinical responses to signal degradation. The proposed method enhances clinical decision-making, diagnostic accuracy, and real-time ECG monitoring capabilities, supporting future advancements in clinical and wearable ECG applications.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

LLM confidence signals are used for abstention, routing, and safety-critical decisions. No standard practice exists for checking whether a confidence signal carries item-level information before building on it. We transfer the validity screening principle from clinical personality assessment (PAI, MMPI-3) as a portable protocol for benchmark-based LLM confidence data. The protocol specifies three core indices (L, Fp, RBS), a structural indicator (TRIN), and an item-sensitivity statistic, computed from a single 2x2 contingency table. A three-tier classification system (Invalid, Indeterminate, Valid) draws on four clinical traditions. Validated on 20 frontier LLMs across 524 items, four models are classified Invalid, two Indeterminate. Valid-profile models show mean r = .18 (15/16 significant). Invalid-profile models show mean r = -.20 (d = 2.48). Cross-benchmark validation on 18 models using MMLU with verbalized confidence and on external data from Yang et al. (2024) confirms the screen transfers across benchmarks and probe formats. All data and code: https://github.com/synthiumjp/validity-scaling-llm

Multivariate time series anomalies often manifest as shifts in cross-channel dependencies rather than simple amplitude excursions. In autonomous driving, for instance, a steering command might be internally consistent but decouple from the resulting lateral acceleration. Residual-based detectors can miss such anomalies when flexible sequence models still reconstruct signals plausibly despite altered coordination. We introduce AxonAD, an unsupervised detector that treats multi-head attention query evolution as a short horizon predictable process. A gradient-updated reconstruction pathway is coupled with a history-only predictor that forecasts future query vectors from past context. This is trained via a masked predictor-target objective against an exponential moving average (EMA) target encoder. At inference, reconstruction error is combined with a tail-aggregated query mismatch score, which measures cosine deviation between predicted and target queries on recent timesteps. This dual approach provides sensitivity to structural dependency shifts while retaining amplitude-level detection. On proprietary in-vehicle telemetry with interval annotations and on the TSB-AD multi-variate suite (17 datasets, 180 series) with threshold-free and range-aware metrics, AxonAD improves ranking quality and temporal localization over strong baselines. Ablations confirm that query prediction and combined scoring are the primary drivers of the observed gains. Code is available at the URL https://github.com/iis-esslingen/AxonAD.

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

Multi-sensor ML models for EO aim to enhance prediction accuracy by integrating data from various sources. However, the presence of missing data poses a significant challenge, particularly in non-persistent sensors that can be affected by external factors. Existing literature has explored strategies like temporal dropout and sensor-invariant models to address the generalization to missing data issues. Inspired by these works, we study two novel methods tailored for multi-sensor scenarios, namely Input Sensor Dropout (ISensD) and Ensemble Sensor Invariant (ESensI). Through experimentation on three multi-sensor temporal EO datasets, we demonstrate that these methods effectively increase the robustness of model predictions to missing sensors. Particularly, we focus on how the predictive performance of models drops when sensors are missing at different levels. We observe that ensemble multi-sensor models are the most robust to the lack of sensors. In addition, the sensor dropout component in ISensD shows promising robustness results.

Many applied problems contain signal that becomes clear only after combining multiple raw measurements. Ratios and rates are common examples. In gradient boosted trees, this combination is not an explicit operation: the model must synthesize it through coordinated splits on the component features. We study whether intra-tree column subsampling in XGBoost makes that synthesis harder. We use two synthetic data generating processes with cancellation-style structure. In both, two primitive features share a strong nuisance factor, while the target depends on a smaller differential factor. A log ratio cancels the nuisance and isolates the signal. We vary colsample_bylevel and colsample_bynode over s in {0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 0.9}, emphasizing mild subsampling (s >= 0.8). A control feature set includes the engineered ratio, removing the need for synthesis. Across both processes, intra-tree column subsampling reduces test PR-AUC in the primitives-only setting. In the main process the relative decrease reaches 54 percent when both parameters are set to 0.4. The effect largely disappears when the engineered ratio is present. A path-based co-usage metric drops in the same cells where performance deteriorates. Practically, if ratio-like structure is plausible, either avoid intra-tree subsampling or include the intended ratio features.

Despite the emergence of diffusion large language models (D-LLMs) as an alternative to autoregressive large language models (AR-LLMs), safety monitoring for D-LLMs remains largely unexplored. Unlike AR-LLMs, D-LLMs generate text through a multi-step denoising process, exposing intermediate hidden representations that may contain safety-relevant information unavailable in standard single-step monitoring setups. Motivated by the suitability of lightweight probes for always-on monitoring, we analyze which trajectory-level signals best indicate when such probes are likely to struggle. We find that the most informative signal is safety hesitation: intermediate hidden states repeatedly falling within a small margin of the probe's decision boundary. The number of such hesitation steps in D-LLM's trajectory predicts probe failure effectively, providing a proxy of sample difficulty. Building on this analysis, we propose D^2-Monitor, a bi-level safety monitor for D-LLMs. D^2-Monitor adopts a lightweight probe as an always-on monitor to jointly estimate hesitation and perform base classification. When the hesitation level exceeds a threshold, a more expressive but computationally heavier probe is activated. This dynamic routing mechanism allocates monitoring resources efficiently at test time. Evaluated on 3 datasets (WildguardMix, ToxicChat, OpenAI-Moderation) across 4 D-LLMs, D^2-Monitor achieves state-of-the-art performance with a compact parameter footprint (leq 0.85M parameters), and exhibits the best trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency relative to 8 baselines.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

Polyploidization is an important evolutionary process which affects organisms ranging from plants to fish and fungi. The signal left behind by it is in the form of a species' ploidy level (number of complete chromosome sets found in a cell) which is inherently non-treelike. Currently available tools for reconstructing the evolutionary past of a polyploid dataset generally start with a multi-labelled tree obtained for a dataset of interest and then derive a (phylogenetic) network from that tree in some way that reflects that past by interpreting the networks's vertices of indegree at least two as polyploidization events. Since obtaining such a tree can be computationally expensive it is paramount to have alternative approaches available that allow one to shed light into the reticulate evolutionary past of a polyploid dataset. SPRINT aims to reconstruct the evolutionary past of a polyploid dataset in terms of a binary network which realises the dataset's ploidy profile (vector of ploidy levels of the dataset's taxa) and requires the fewest number of polyploidization events. It does this by representing the ploidy level of a species x in terms of the number of directed paths from the root of the network to the leaf of the network labelled by x. SPRINT is distributed on GitHub: https://github.com/lmaher1/SPRINT.

There is a bias in the inference pipeline of most diffusion models. This bias arises from a signal leak whose distribution deviates from the noise distribution, creating a discrepancy between training and inference processes. We demonstrate that this signal-leak bias is particularly significant when models are tuned to a specific style, causing sub-optimal style matching. Recent research tries to avoid the signal leakage during training. We instead show how we can exploit this signal-leak bias in existing diffusion models to allow more control over the generated images. This enables us to generate images with more varied brightness, and images that better match a desired style or color. By modeling the distribution of the signal leak in the spatial frequency and pixel domains, and including a signal leak in the initial latent, we generate images that better match expected results without any additional training.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated significant potential in ECG analysis and cardiovascular disease assessment. Recently, foundation models have played a remarkable role in advancing medical AI. The development of an ECG foundation model holds the promise of elevating AI-ECG research to new heights. However, building such a model faces several challenges, including insufficient database sample sizes and inadequate generalization across multiple domains. Additionally, there is a notable performance gap between single-lead and multi-lead ECG analyses. We introduced an ECG Foundation Model (ECGFounder), a general-purpose model that leverages real-world ECG annotations from cardiology experts to broaden the diagnostic capabilities of ECG analysis. ECGFounder was trained on over 10 million ECGs with 150 label categories from the Harvard-Emory ECG Database, enabling comprehensive cardiovascular disease diagnosis through ECG analysis. The model is designed to be both an effective out-of-the-box solution, and a to be fine-tunable for downstream tasks, maximizing usability. Importantly, we extended its application to lower rank ECGs, and arbitrary single-lead ECGs in particular. ECGFounder is applicable to supporting various downstream tasks in mobile monitoring scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that ECGFounder achieves expert-level performance on internal validation sets, with AUROC exceeding 0.95 for eighty diagnoses. It also shows strong classification performance and generalization across various diagnoses on external validation sets. When fine-tuned, ECGFounder outperforms baseline models in demographic analysis, clinical event detection, and cross-modality cardiac rhythm diagnosis. The trained model and data will be publicly released upon publication through the bdsp.io. Our code is available at https://github.com/bdsp-core/ECGFounder

Computational sensing strategies often suffer from calibration errors in the physical implementation of their ideal sensing models. Such uncertainties are typically addressed by using multiple, accurately chosen training signals to recover the missing information on the sensing model, an approach that can be resource-consuming and cumbersome. Conversely, blind calibration does not employ any training signal, but corresponds to a bilinear inverse problem whose algorithmic solution is an open issue. We here address blind calibration as a non-convex problem for linear random sensing models, in which we aim to recover an unknown signal from its projections on sub-Gaussian random vectors, each subject to an unknown positive multiplicative factor (or gain). To solve this optimisation problem we resort to projected gradient descent starting from a suitable, carefully chosen initialisation point. An analysis of this algorithm allows us to show that it converges to the exact solution provided a sample complexity requirement is met, i.e., relating convergence to the amount of information collected during the sensing process. Interestingly, we show that this requirement grows linearly (up to log factors) in the number of unknowns of the problem. This sample complexity is found both in absence of prior information, as well as when subspace priors are available for both the signal and gains, allowing a further reduction of the number of observations required for our recovery guarantees to hold. Moreover, in the presence of noise we show how our descent algorithm yields a solution whose accuracy degrades gracefully with the amount of noise affecting the measurements. Finally, we present some numerical experiments in an imaging context, where our algorithm allows for a simple solution to blind calibration of the gains in a sensor array.

Three-phase asynchronous motor are fundamental components in industrial systems, and their failure can lead to significant operational downtime and economic losses. Vibration and current signals are effective indicators for monitoring motor health and diagnosing faults. However, motors in real applications often operate under variable conditions such as fluctuating speeds and loads, which complicate the fault diagnosis process. This paper presents a comprehensive dataset collected from a three-phase asynchronous motor under various fault types and severities, operating under diverse speed and load conditions. The dataset includes both single faults and mechanical-electrical compound faults, such as rotor unbalance, stator winding short circuits, bearing faults, and their combinations. Data were acquired under both steady and transitional conditions, with signals including triaxial vibration, three-phase currents, torque, and key-phase signals. This dataset supports the development and validation of robust fault diagnosis methods for electric motors under realistic operating conditions.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Despite extensive standardization, diagnostic interviews for mental health disorders encompass substantial subjective judgment. Previous studies have demonstrated that EEG-based neural measures can function as reliable objective correlates of depression, or even predictors of depression and its course. However, their clinical utility has not been fully realized because of 1) the lack of automated ways to deal with the inherent noise associated with EEG data at scale, and 2) the lack of knowledge of which aspects of the EEG signal may be markers of a clinical disorder. Here we adapt an unsupervised pipeline from the recent deep representation learning literature to address these problems by 1) learning a disentangled representation using beta-VAE to denoise the signal, and 2) extracting interpretable features associated with a sparse set of clinical labels using a Symbol-Concept Association Network (SCAN). We demonstrate that our method is able to outperform the canonical hand-engineered baseline classification method on a number of factors, including participant age and depression diagnosis. Furthermore, our method recovers a representation that can be used to automatically extract denoised Event Related Potentials (ERPs) from novel, single EEG trajectories, and supports fast supervised re-mapping to various clinical labels, allowing clinicians to re-use a single EEG representation regardless of updates to the standardized diagnostic system. Finally, single factors of the learned disentangled representations often correspond to meaningful markers of clinical factors, as automatically detected by SCAN, allowing for human interpretability and post-hoc expert analysis of the recommendations made by the model.

Missing data is a significant problem impacting all domains. State-of-the-art framework for minimizing missing data bias is multiple imputation, for which the choice of an imputation model remains nontrivial. We propose a multiple imputation model based on overcomplete deep denoising autoencoders. Our proposed model is capable of handling different data types, missingness patterns, missingness proportions and distributions. Evaluation on several real life datasets show our proposed model significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art methods under varying conditions while simultaneously improving end of the line analytics.

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

We present the S-Band Polarization All Sky Survey (S-PASS), a survey of polarized radio emission over the southern sky at Dec~< -1^circ taken with the Parkes radio telescope at 2.3~GHz. The main aim was to observe at a frequency high enough to avoid strong depolarization at intermediate Galactic latitudes (still present at 1.4 GHz) to study Galactic magnetism, but low enough to retain ample Signal-to-Noise ratio (S/N) at high latitudes for extragalactic and cosmological science. We developed a new scanning strategy based on long azimuth scans, and a corresponding map-making procedure to make recovery of the overall mean signal of Stokes Q and U possible, a long-standing problem with polarization observations. We describe the scanning strategy, map-making procedure, and validation tests. The overall mean signal is recovered with a precision better than 0.5\%. The maps have a mean sensitivity of 0.81 mK on beam--size scales and show clear polarized signals, typically to within a few degrees of the Galactic plane, with ample S/N everywhere (the typical signal in low emission regions is 13 mK, and 98.6\% of the pixels have S/N > 3). The largest depolarization areas are in the inner Galaxy, associated with the Sagittarius Arm. We have also computed a Rotation Measure map combining S-PASS with archival data from the WMAP and Planck experiments. A Stokes I map has been generated, with a sensitivity limited to the confusion level of 9 mK.

There has been a rapidly growing interest in Automatic Symptom Detection (ASD) and Automatic Diagnosis (AD) systems in the machine learning research literature, aiming to assist doctors in telemedicine services. These systems are designed to interact with patients, collect evidence about their symptoms and relevant antecedents, and possibly make predictions about the underlying diseases. Doctors would review the interactions, including the evidence and the predictions, collect if necessary additional information from patients, before deciding on next steps. Despite recent progress in this area, an important piece of doctors' interactions with patients is missing in the design of these systems, namely the differential diagnosis. Its absence is largely due to the lack of datasets that include such information for models to train on. In this work, we present a large-scale synthetic dataset of roughly 1.3 million patients that includes a differential diagnosis, along with the ground truth pathology, symptoms and antecedents for each patient. Unlike existing datasets which only contain binary symptoms and antecedents, this dataset also contains categorical and multi-choice symptoms and antecedents useful for efficient data collection. Moreover, some symptoms are organized in a hierarchy, making it possible to design systems able to interact with patients in a logical way. As a proof-of-concept, we extend two existing AD and ASD systems to incorporate the differential diagnosis, and provide empirical evidence that using differentials as training signals is essential for the efficiency of such systems or for helping doctors better understand the reasoning of those systems.

Unconstrained Asian roads often involve poor infrastructure, affecting overall road safety. Missing traffic signs are a regular part of such roads. Missing or non-existing object detection has been studied for locating missing curbs and estimating reasonable regions for pedestrians on road scene images. Such methods involve analyzing task-specific single object cues. In this paper, we present the first and most challenging video dataset for missing objects, with multiple types of traffic signs for which the cues are visible without the signs in the scenes. We refer to it as the Missing Traffic Signs Video Dataset (MTSVD). MTSVD is challenging compared to the previous works in two aspects i) The traffic signs are generally not present in the vicinity of their cues, ii) The traffic signs cues are diverse and unique. Also, MTSVD is the first publicly available missing object dataset. To train the models for identifying missing signs, we complement our dataset with 10K traffic sign tracks, with 40 percent of the traffic signs having cues visible in the scenes. For identifying missing signs, we propose the Cue-driven Contextual Attention units (CueCAn), which we incorporate in our model encoder. We first train the encoder to classify the presence of traffic sign cues and then train the entire segmentation model end-to-end to localize missing traffic signs. Quantitative and qualitative analysis shows that CueCAn significantly improves the performance of base models.

While data are the primary fuel for machine learning models, they often suffer from missing values, especially when collected in real-world scenarios. However, many off-the-shelf machine learning models, including artificial neural network models, are unable to handle these missing values directly. Therefore, extra data preprocessing and curation steps, such as data imputation, are inevitable before learning and prediction processes. In this study, we propose a simple and intuitive yet effective method for pruning missing values (PROMISSING) during learning and inference steps in neural networks. In this method, there is no need to remove or impute the missing values; instead, the missing values are treated as a new source of information (representing what we do not know). Our experiments on simulated data, several classification and regression benchmarks, and a multi-modal clinical dataset show that PROMISSING results in similar prediction performance compared to various imputation techniques. In addition, our experiments show models trained using PROMISSING techniques are becoming less decisive in their predictions when facing incomplete samples with many unknowns. This finding hopefully advances machine learning models from being pure predicting machines to more realistic thinkers that can also say "I do not know" when facing incomplete sources of information.

As the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) rises, improving mechanistic insight from non-invasive biomarkers is increasingly critical. Recent work suggests that circuit-level brain alterations manifest as changes in electroencephalography (EEG) spectral features detectable by machine learning. However, conventional deep learning approaches for EEG-based AD detection are computationally intensive and mechanistically opaque. Spiking neural networks (SNNs) offer a biologically plausible and energy-efficient alternative, yet their application to AD diagnosis remains largely unexplored. We propose a neuro-bridge framework that links data-driven learning with minimal, biophysically grounded simulations, enabling bidirectional interpretation between machine learning signatures and circuit-level mechanisms in AD. Using resting-state clinical EEG, we train an SNN classifier that achieves competitive performance (AUC = 0.839) and identifies the aperiodic 1/f slope as a key discriminative marker. The 1/f slope reflects excitation-inhibition balance. To interpret this mechanistically, we construct spiking network simulations in which inhibitory-to-excitatory synaptic ratios are systematically varied to emulate healthy, mild cognitive impairment, and AD-like states. Using both membrane potential-based and synaptic current-based EEG proxies, we reproduce empirical spectral slowing and altered alpha organization. Incorporating empirical functional connectivity priors into multi-subnetwork simulations further enhances spectral differentiation, demonstrating that large-scale network topology constrains EEG signatures more strongly than excitation-inhibition balance alone. Overall, this neuro-bridge approach connects SNN-based classification with interpretable circuit simulations, advancing mechanistic understanding of EEG biomarkers while enabling scalable, explainable AD detection.

Automated checking pipelines increasingly place one language model as the checker and another (or the same one) as the fixer. We ask whether that wiring changes what the checker reports. Measuring false alarms on human-verified-correct ProcessBench traces with the present task held byte-identical, we find that a completed audit -> repair episode already in the model's context lowers false alarms in 15 of 15 model x wording combinations, by 2.8 to 11.5 percentage points against a length-matched non-audit control, a 9 to 25% reduction relative to that control. The direction contradicts what the accumulated-message literature predicts: an episode whose audit reported an error lowers false alarms further still, at all five wordings on the model where that manipulation lands cleanly, though a negativity asymmetry predicts more flagging. Decomposing the episode finds repair content and audit verdict complementary: different components carry the effect on different model families. Signal-detection analysis locates the change in the threshold rather than in discrimination -- the criterion moves in 15 of 15 combinations and survives correction in 13 while d' survives in none, though the d' test is half as sensitive by construction -- and a hand audit of 50 false alarms finds 82% simply wrong, so at this operating point the shift need not be harmful. With reasoning enabled the effect keeps its relative size on both models tested, and the threshold reading holds there too.

Missing values are ubiquitous in multivariate time series (MTS) data, posing significant challenges for accurate analysis and downstream applications. In recent years, deep learning-based methods have successfully handled missing data by leveraging complex temporal dependencies and learned data distributions. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive summary of deep learning approaches for multivariate time series imputation (MTSI) tasks. We propose a novel taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on two key perspectives: imputation uncertainty and neural network architecture. Furthermore, we summarize existing MTSI toolkits with a particular emphasis on the PyPOTS Ecosystem, which provides an integrated and standardized foundation for MTSI research. Finally, we discuss key challenges and future research directions, which give insight for further MTSI research. This survey aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in the field of time series analysis and missing data imputation tasks.A well-maintained MTSI paper and tool list are available at https://github.com/WenjieDu/Awesome_Imputation.

Cardiac biosignals, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), are of paramount importance for the diagnosis, prevention, and management of cardiovascular diseases, and have been extensively used in a variety of clinical tasks. Conventional deep learning approaches for analyzing these signals typically rely on homogeneous datasets and static bespoke models, limiting their robustness and generalizability across diverse clinical settings and acquisition protocols. In this study, we present a cardiac sensing foundation model (CSFM) that leverages advanced transformer architectures and a generative, masked pretraining strategy to learn unified representations from vast, heterogeneous health records. Our model is pretrained on an innovative multi-modal integration of data from multiple large-scale datasets (including MIMIC-III-WDB, MIMIC-IV-ECG, and CODE), comprising cardiac signals and the corresponding clinical or machine-generated text reports from approximately 1.7 million individuals. We demonstrate that the embeddings derived from our CSFM not only serve as effective feature extractors across diverse cardiac sensing scenarios, but also enable seamless transfer learning across varying input configurations and sensor modalities. Extensive evaluations across diagnostic tasks, demographic information recognition, vital sign measurement, clinical outcome prediction, and ECG question answering reveal that CSFM consistently outperforms traditional one-modal-one-task approaches. Notably, CSFM exhibits robust performance across multiple ECG lead configurations from standard 12-lead systems to single-lead setups, and in scenarios where only ECG, only PPG, or a combination thereof is available. These findings highlight the potential of CSFM as a versatile and scalable solution, for comprehensive cardiac monitoring.

Accurate interpretation of electrocardiogram (ECG) remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled data and the high cost of expert annotation. Self-supervised learning (SSL) offers a promising solution by enabling models to learn expressive representations from unlabeled signals. Existing ECG SSL methods typically rely on either contrastive learning or reconstructive learning. However, each approach in isolation provides limited supervisory signals and suffers from additional limitations, including non-physiological distortions introduced by naive augmentations and trivial correlations across multiple leads that models may exploit as shortcuts. In this work, we propose CoRe-ECG, a unified contrastive and reconstructive pretraining paradigm that establishes a synergistic interaction between global semantic modeling and local structural learning. CoRe-ECG aligns global representations during reconstruction, enabling instance-level discriminative signals to guide local waveform recovery. To further enhance pretraining, we introduce Frequency Dynamic Augmentation (FDA) to adaptively perturb ECG signals based on their frequency-domain importance, and Spatio-Temporal Dual Masking (STDM) to break linear dependencies across leads, increasing the difficulty of reconstructive tasks. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple downstream ECG datasets. Ablation studies further demonstrate the necessity and complementarity of each component. This approach provides a robust and physiologically meaningful representation learning framework for ECG analysis.

Autonomous research agents can generate experiments faster than researchers can validate them. Researchers have responded by scaling the proposer and ranking more samples with a learned judge or human reviewers. We argue that this *generate-and-rank* paradigm misses the problem of sparse feedback. Within a declared research problem, an agent follows the control loop of a greybox fuzzer: it proposes a candidate, executes it, observes feedback, and chooses what to try next. A fuzzer rarely finds a bug, but coverage makes partial progress observable on every execution. Fuzzers then use that signal to mutate inputs and allocate effort, rather than only to rank completed runs. Auto-research needs the same two capabilities. First, each experiment should expose a cheap, dense signal of epistemic progress before final scientific validation is available. Second, that signal should determine the next intervention so that the agent searches rather than repeatedly samples. Because the optimized progress signal is guidance rather than a verdict, final validation must still decide what counts as a discovery using evidence protected from adaptive reuse. We propose controlled tests of whether candidate signals predict validated progress, whether feedback-directed search yields more validated discoveries per unit cost than repeated sampling, and whether protected validation reduces false discoveries. Feedback architecture, not only generation, is a central bottleneck in auto-research.

We study the problem of imputing missing values in a dataset, which has important applications in many domains. The key to missing value imputation is to capture the data distribution with incomplete samples and impute the missing values accordingly. In this paper, by leveraging the fact that any two batches of data with missing values come from the same data distribution, we propose to impute the missing values of two batches of samples by transforming them into a latent space through deep invertible functions and matching them distributionally. To learn the transformations and impute the missing values simultaneously, a simple and well-motivated algorithm is proposed. Our algorithm has fewer hyperparameters to fine-tune and generates high-quality imputations regardless of how missing values are generated. Extensive experiments over a large number of datasets and competing benchmark algorithms show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

In the axion model, electromagnetic waves interacting with axions induce frequency-dependent time delays, determined by the axion mass and decay constant. These small delays are difficult to detect, making traditional methods ineffective. To address this, we computed time delays for various parameters and found a prominent dispersion signal when the wave frequency equals half the axion mass. Based on this, we developed a machine learning-based pipeline, achieving 95\% classification accuracy and demonstrating strong detection capability in low signal-to-noise data. Applying this to PSR J1933-6211, we found no axion-induced delays within current sensitivity limits. While existing constraints are limited by atomic clock resolution in radio telescopes, future advances in optical clocks and broader bandwidths will enable more extensive searches. In particular, combining high-precision optical clocks with next-generation radio telescopes, such as the Qitai Radio Telescope, could improve decay constant constraints by four orders of magnitude for axion masses in the 10^{-6} sim 10^{-4} eV range.

Heart disease remains a significant threat to human health. As a non-invasive diagnostic tool, the electrocardiogram (ECG) is one of the most widely used methods for cardiac screening. However, the scarcity of high-quality ECG data, driven by privacy concerns and limited medical resources, creates a pressing need for effective ECG signal generation. Existing approaches for generating ECG signals typically rely on small training datasets, lack comprehensive evaluation frameworks, and overlook potential applications beyond data augmentation. To address these challenges, we propose DiffuSETS, a novel framework capable of generating ECG signals with high semantic alignment and fidelity. DiffuSETS accepts various modalities of clinical text reports and patient-specific information as inputs, enabling the creation of clinically meaningful ECG signals. Additionally, to address the lack of standardized evaluation in ECG generation, we introduce a comprehensive benchmarking methodology to assess the effectiveness of generative models in this domain. Our model achieve excellent results in tests, proving its superiority in the task of ECG generation. Furthermore, we showcase its potential to mitigate data scarcity while exploring novel applications in cardiology education and medical knowledge discovery, highlighting the broader impact of our work.

Autoencoders have been proposed as a powerful tool for model-independent anomaly detection in high-energy physics. The operating principle is that events which do not belong to the space of training data will be reconstructed poorly, thus flagging them as anomalies. We point out that in a variety of examples of interest, the connection between large reconstruction error and anomalies is not so clear. In particular, for data sets with nontrivial topology, there will always be points that erroneously seem anomalous due to global issues. Conversely, neural networks typically have an inductive bias or prior to locally interpolate such that undersampled or rare events may be reconstructed with small error, despite actually being the desired anomalies. Taken together, these facts are in tension with the simple picture of the autoencoder as an anomaly detector. Using a series of illustrative low-dimensional examples, we show explicitly how the intrinsic and extrinsic topology of the dataset affects the behavior of an autoencoder and how this topology is manifested in the latent space representation during training. We ground this analysis in the discussion of a mock "bump hunt" in which the autoencoder fails to identify an anomalous "signal" for reasons tied to the intrinsic topology of n-particle phase space.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series data is of paramount importance for ensuring the efficient operation of large-scale systems across diverse domains. However, accurately detecting anomalies in such data poses significant challenges. Existing approaches, including forecasting and reconstruction-based methods, struggle to address these challenges effectively. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel anomaly detection framework named ImDiffusion, which combines time series imputation and diffusion models to achieve accurate and robust anomaly detection. The imputation-based approach employed by ImDiffusion leverages the information from neighboring values in the time series, enabling precise modeling of temporal and inter-correlated dependencies, reducing uncertainty in the data, thereby enhancing the robustness of the anomaly detection process. ImDiffusion further leverages diffusion models as time series imputers to accurately capturing complex dependencies. We leverage the step-by-step denoised outputs generated during the inference process to serve as valuable signals for anomaly prediction, resulting in improved accuracy and robustness of the detection process. We evaluate the performance of ImDiffusion via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in terms of detection accuracy and timeliness. ImDiffusion is further integrated into the real production system in Microsoft and observe a remarkable 11.4% increase in detection F1 score compared to the legacy approach. To the best of our knowledge, ImDiffusion represents a pioneering approach that combines imputation-based techniques with time series anomaly detection, while introducing the novel use of diffusion models to the field.

When a model produces a correct solution under reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), every token receives the same reward signal regardless of whether it was a decisive reasoning step or a grammatical filler. A natural fix is to condition the model on the correct answer as a teacher, identifying tokens it would have generated differently had it known the answer. Prior work shows this either corrupts training by leaking the answer into the gradient, or produces a weak signal that cannot distinguish decisive steps from filler, since both look equally surprising relative to the model's baseline. We propose Contrastive Evidence Policy Optimization (CEPO), which asks a sharper question at every token: not just "does the correct answer favor this token?" but "does the correct answer favor it while the wrong answer disfavors it?" A token satisfying both is a genuine reasoning step; one satisfying neither is filler. The wrong-answer teacher is constructed from rejected rollouts already in the training batch, incurring no additional sampling cost. We prove CEPO inherits all structural safety guarantees of the prior state of the art while strictly sharpening credit at decisive tokens, with the improvement vanishing exactly at filler positions. Empirically, CEPO achieves 43.43% and 60.56% average accuracy across five multimodal mathematical reasoning benchmarks at 2B and 4B scale, respectively, versus 41.17% and 57.43% for GRPO under identical training budgets. Distribution-matching self-distillation methods (OPSD, SDPO) fall below the untrained baseline, empirically confirming the information leakage our theory predicts. Our code is available at https://github.com/ahmedheakl/CEPO.

Graphical user interface (GUI) grounding requires vision-language models (VLMs) to identify small target elements in high-resolution screenshots and predict precise screen coordinates. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) is a promising post-training approach for this coordinate-sensitive task, since it provides dense token-level teacher signals beyond hard coordinate labels. However, naive OPSD is not well suited to GUI grounding: OPSD evaluates the teacher on student-generated prefixes, the quality of coordinate-token teacher signals can degrade when the prefix has already deviated from the target coordinate, leading to unreliable teacher signal. To mitigate this, We propose quality-aware self-distillation for VLM-based GUI grounding, which improves coordinate-token teacher-signal quality through soft correctness-aware gating and teacher-probability scaling. The soft correctness-aware gate checks whether the teacher's current coordinate-token prediction can still be completed into the ground-truth box under the student-generated prefix. If not, the corresponding teacher signal is down-weighted. Teacher-probability scaling then uses the teacher's confidence as a lightweight factor to further calibrate the strength of the gated supervision. A key empirical finding is that neither component alone improves overall performance, whereas combining them consistently improves performance. This suggests that the two mechanisms play complementary roles: correctness-aware gating suppresses unreliable coordinate-token supervision, while teacher-probability scaling calibrates the strength of the remaining signals. Experiments across six GUI grounding benchmarks show that our method consistently improves the base model and outperforms strong baselines.

Machine learning (ML) has become a ubiquitous tool across various domains of data mining and big data analysis. The efficacy of ML models depends heavily on high-quality datasets, which are often complicated by the presence of missing values. Consequently, the performance and generalization of ML models are at risk in the face of such datasets. This paper aims to examine the nuanced impact of missing values on ML workflows, including their types, causes, and consequences. Our analysis focuses on the challenges posed by missing values, including biased inferences, reduced predictive power, and increased computational burdens. The paper further explores strategies for handling missing values, including imputation techniques and removal strategies, and investigates how missing values affect model evaluation metrics and introduces complexities in cross-validation and model selection. The study employs case studies and real-world examples to illustrate the practical implications of addressing missing values. Finally, the discussion extends to future research directions, emphasizing the need for handling missing values ethically and transparently. The primary goal of this paper is to provide insights into the pervasive impact of missing values on ML models and guide practitioners toward effective strategies for achieving robust and reliable model outcomes.

Robotic learning takes place in dynamic environments with large behavior spaces. A terminal success signal only tells the robot whether the task is completed. It does not explain whether the current behavior is making progress, remaining unchanged, or undoing earlier progress. For this reason, recent studies have increasingly explored progress rewards that provide feedback during task execution. However, the current literature lacks a shared framework. Existing methods use different observations, goal specifications, output signals, supervision sources, and evaluation protocols. This makes it difficult to compare them and understand what their results actually validate. In this survey, we provide a unified view of progress reward modeling for robotic learning. We organize the field in three connected steps. We first study the interface of a progress model. This defines the problem from the outside by asking what information the model receives and what form of progress signal it produces. We then move inside the model and study the methods used to construct this signal. This reveals the different assumptions and mechanisms behind progress estimation and reward generation. Finally, we examine the data and benchmarks that support these methods. This shows how progress supervision is obtained and what different evaluations actually measure. Together, these three perspectives connect what a progress model is, how it is built, and how its quality is validated. We further summarize the main limitations of current approaches and discuss future research directions.

We discover that common diffusion noise schedules do not enforce the last timestep to have zero signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and some implementations of diffusion samplers do not start from the last timestep. Such designs are flawed and do not reflect the fact that the model is given pure Gaussian noise at inference, creating a discrepancy between training and inference. We show that the flawed design causes real problems in existing implementations. In Stable Diffusion, it severely limits the model to only generate images with medium brightness and prevents it from generating very bright and dark samples. We propose a few simple fixes: (1) rescale the noise schedule to enforce zero terminal SNR; (2) train the model with v prediction; (3) change the sampler to always start from the last timestep; (4) rescale classifier-free guidance to prevent over-exposure. These simple changes ensure the diffusion process is congruent between training and inference and allow the model to generate samples more faithful to the original data distribution.

Many papers have shown that attention heads work in conjunction with each other to perform complex tasks. It's frequently assumed that communication between attention heads is via the addition of specific features to token residuals. In this work we seek to isolate and identify the features used to effect communication and coordination among attention heads in GPT-2 small. Our key leverage on the problem is to show that these features are very often sparsely coded in the singular vectors of attention head matrices. We characterize the dimensionality and occurrence of these signals across the attention heads in GPT-2 small when used for the Indirect Object Identification (IOI) task. The sparse encoding of signals, as provided by attention head singular vectors, allows for efficient separation of signals from the residual background and straightforward identification of communication paths between attention heads. We explore the effectiveness of this approach by tracing portions of the circuits used in the IOI task. Our traces reveal considerable detail not present in previous studies, shedding light on the nature of redundant paths present in GPT-2. And our traces go beyond previous work by identifying features used to communicate between attention heads when performing IOI.

Machine learning has vast potential to improve anomaly detection in satellite telemetry which is a crucial task for spacecraft operations. This potential is currently hampered by a lack of comprehensible benchmarks for multivariate time series anomaly detection, especially for the challenging case of satellite telemetry. The European Space Agency Benchmark for Anomaly Detection in Satellite Telemetry (ESA-ADB) aims to address this challenge and establish a new standard in the domain. It is a result of close cooperation between spacecraft operations engineers from the European Space Agency (ESA) and machine learning experts. The newly introduced ESA Anomalies Dataset contains annotated real-life telemetry from three different ESA missions, out of which two are included in ESA-ADB. Results of typical anomaly detection algorithms assessed in our novel hierarchical evaluation pipeline show that new approaches are necessary to address operators' needs. All elements of ESA-ADB are publicly available to ensure its full reproducibility.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a core technique powering state-of-the-art image generation systems, yet its underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this work, we begin by analyzing CFG in a simplified linear diffusion model, where we show its behavior closely resembles that observed in the nonlinear case. Our analysis reveals that linear CFG improves generation quality via three distinct components: (i) a mean-shift term that approximately steers samples in the direction of class means, (ii) a positive Contrastive Principal Components (CPC) term that amplifies class-specific features, and (iii) a negative CPC term that suppresses generic features prevalent in unconditional data. We then verify that these insights in real-world, nonlinear diffusion models: over a broad range of noise levels, linear CFG resembles the behavior of its nonlinear counterpart. Although the two eventually diverge at low noise levels, we discuss how the insights from the linear analysis still shed light on the CFG's mechanism in the nonlinear regime.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Electrocardiograms (ECG) are widely employed as a diagnostic tool for monitoring electrical signals originating from a heart. Recent machine learning research efforts have focused on the application of screening various diseases using ECG signals. However, adapting to the application of screening disease is challenging in that labeled ECG data are limited. Achieving general representation through self-supervised learning (SSL) is a well-known approach to overcome the scarcity of labeled data; however, a naive application of SSL to ECG data, without considering the spatial-temporal relationships inherent in ECG signals, may yield suboptimal results. In this paper, we introduce ST-MEM (Spatio-Temporal Masked Electrocardiogram Modeling), designed to learn spatio-temporal features by reconstructing masked 12-lead ECG data. ST-MEM outperforms other SSL baseline methods in various experimental settings for arrhythmia classification tasks. Moreover, we demonstrate that ST-MEM is adaptable to various lead combinations. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis, we show a spatio-temporal relationship within ECG data. Our code is available at https://github.com/bakqui/ST-MEM.

Diffusion models have demonstrated robust data generation capabilities in various research fields. In this paper, a Time Series Diffusion Method (TSDM) is proposed for vibration signal generation, leveraging the foundational principles of diffusion models. The TSDM uses an improved U-net architecture with attention block to effectively segment and extract features from one-dimensional time series data. It operates based on forward diffusion and reverse denoising processes for time-series generation. Experimental validation is conducted using single-frequency, multi-frequency datasets, and bearing fault datasets. The results show that TSDM can accurately generate the single-frequency and multi-frequency features in the time series and retain the basic frequency features for the diffusion generation results of the bearing fault series. Finally, TSDM is applied to the small sample fault diagnosis of three public bearing fault datasets, and the results show that the accuracy of small sample fault diagnosis of the three datasets is improved by 32.380%, 18.355% and 9.298% at most, respectively

In the field of quantitative trading, it is common practice to transform raw historical stock data into indicative signals for the market trend. Such signals are called alpha factors. Alphas in formula forms are more interpretable and thus favored by practitioners concerned with risk. In practice, a set of formulaic alphas is often used together for better modeling precision, so we need to find synergistic formulaic alpha sets that work well together. However, most traditional alpha generators mine alphas one by one separately, overlooking the fact that the alphas would be combined later. In this paper, we propose a new alpha-mining framework that prioritizes mining a synergistic set of alphas, i.e., it directly uses the performance of the downstream combination model to optimize the alpha generator. Our framework also leverages the strong exploratory capabilities of reinforcement learning~(RL) to better explore the vast search space of formulaic alphas. The contribution to the combination models' performance is assigned to be the return used in the RL process, driving the alpha generator to find better alphas that improve upon the current set. Experimental evaluations on real-world stock market data demonstrate both the effectiveness and the efficiency of our framework for stock trend forecasting. The investment simulation results show that our framework is able to achieve higher returns compared to previous approaches.

Reconstructing time-varying graph signals (or graph time-series imputation) is a critical problem in machine learning and signal processing with broad applications, ranging from missing data imputation in sensor networks to time-series forecasting. Accurately capturing the spatio-temporal information inherent in these signals is crucial for effectively addressing these tasks. However, existing approaches relying on smoothness assumptions of temporal differences and simple convex optimization techniques have inherent limitations. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach that incorporates a learning module to enhance the accuracy of the downstream task. To this end, we introduce the Gegenbauer-based graph convolutional (GegenConv) operator, which is a generalization of the conventional Chebyshev graph convolution by leveraging the theory of Gegenbauer polynomials. By deviating from traditional convex problems, we expand the complexity of the model and offer a more accurate solution for recovering time-varying graph signals. Building upon GegenConv, we design the Gegenbauer-based time Graph Neural Network (GegenGNN) architecture, which adopts an encoder-decoder structure. Likewise, our approach also utilizes a dedicated loss function that incorporates a mean squared error component alongside Sobolev smoothness regularization. This combination enables GegenGNN to capture both the fidelity to ground truth and the underlying smoothness properties of the signals, enhancing the reconstruction performance. We conduct extensive experiments on real datasets to evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. The experimental results demonstrate that GegenGNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods, showcasing its superior capability in recovering time-varying graph signals.

Understanding causal relationships between machines is crucial for fault diagnosis and optimization in manufacturing processes. Real-world datasets frequently exhibit up to 90% missing data and high dimensionality from hundreds of sensors. These datasets also include domain-specific expert knowledge and chronological order information, reflecting the recording order across different machines, which is pivotal for discerning causal relationships within the manufacturing data. However, previous methods for handling missing data in scenarios akin to real-world conditions have not been able to effectively utilize expert knowledge. Conversely, prior methods that can incorporate expert knowledge struggle with datasets that exhibit missing values. Therefore, we propose COKE to construct causal graphs in manufacturing datasets by leveraging expert knowledge and chronological order among sensors without imputing missing data. Utilizing the characteristics of the recipe, we maximize the use of samples with missing values, derive embeddings from intersections with an initial graph that incorporates expert knowledge and chronological order, and create a sensor ordering graph. The graph-generating process has been optimized by an actor-critic architecture to obtain a final graph that has a maximum reward. Experimental evaluations in diverse settings of sensor quantities and missing proportions demonstrate that our approach compared with the benchmark methods shows an average improvement of 39.9% in the F1-score. Moreover, the F1-score improvement can reach 62.6% when considering the configuration similar to real-world datasets, and 85.0% in real-world semiconductor datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/OuTingYun/COKE.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) serves as the primary non-invasive diagnostic tool for cardiac conditions monitoring, are crucial in assisting clinicians. Recent studies have concentrated on classifying cardiac conditions using ECG data but have overlooked ECG report generation, which is not only time-consuming but also requires clinical expertise. To automate ECG report generation and ensure its versatility, we propose the Multimodal ECG Instruction Tuning (MEIT) framework, the first attempt to tackle ECG report generation with LLMs and multimodal instructions. To facilitate future research, we establish a benchmark to evaluate MEIT with various LLMs backbones across two large-scale ECG datasets. Our approach uniquely aligns the representations of the ECG signal and the report, and we conduct extensive experiments to benchmark MEIT with nine open source LLMs, using more than 800,000 ECG reports. MEIT's results underscore the superior performance of instruction-tuned LLMs, showcasing their proficiency in quality report generation, zero-shot capabilities, and resilience to signal perturbation. These findings emphasize the efficacy of our MEIT framework and its potential for real-world clinical application.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is an essential non-invasive diagnostic tool for assessing cardiac conditions. Existing automatic interpretation methods suffer from limited generalizability, focusing on a narrow range of cardiac conditions, and typically depend on raw physiological signals, which may not be readily available in resource-limited settings where only printed or digital ECG images are accessible. Recent advancements in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) present promising opportunities for addressing these challenges. However, the application of MLLMs to ECG image interpretation remains challenging due to the lack of instruction tuning datasets and well-established ECG image benchmarks for quantitative evaluation. To address these challenges, we introduce ECGInstruct, a comprehensive ECG image instruction tuning dataset of over one million samples, covering a wide range of ECG-related tasks from diverse data sources. Using ECGInstruct, we develop PULSE, an MLLM tailored for ECG image comprehension. In addition, we curate ECGBench, a new evaluation benchmark covering four key ECG image interpretation tasks across nine different datasets. Our experiments show that PULSE sets a new state-of-the-art, outperforming general MLLMs with an average accuracy improvement of 15% to 30%. This work highlights the potential of PULSE to enhance ECG interpretation in clinical practice.

In the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), condition monitoring sensor signals from complex systems often exhibit nonlinear and stochastic spatial-temporal dynamics under varying conditions. These complex dynamics make fault detection particularly challenging. While previous methods effectively model these dynamics, they often neglect the evolution of relationships between sensor signals. Undetected shifts in these relationships can lead to significant system failures. Furthermore, these methods frequently misidentify novel operating conditions as faults. Addressing these limitations, we propose DyEdgeGAT (Dynamic Edge via Graph Attention), a novel approach for early-stage fault detection in IIoT systems. DyEdgeGAT's primary innovation lies in a novel graph inference scheme for multivariate time series that tracks the evolution of relationships between time series, enabled by dynamic edge construction. Another key innovation of DyEdgeGAT is its ability to incorporate operating condition contexts into node dynamics modeling, enhancing its accuracy and robustness. We rigorously evaluated DyEdgeGAT using both a synthetic dataset, simulating varying levels of fault severity, and a real-world industrial-scale multiphase flow facility benchmark with diverse fault types under varying operating conditions and detection complexities. The results show that DyEdgeGAT significantly outperforms other baseline methods in fault detection, particularly in the early stages with low severity, and exhibits robust performance under novel operating conditions.

Wearable sensors capture fine-grained motion patterns that support rich behavioral understanding, yet most existing methods reduce these signals to activity labels. Recent LM-based approaches generate natural-language explanations for sensor data, but their reasoning is weakly grounded in the underlying signal, leading to fluent yet unverifiable explanations. We introduce TRACE-TS (Traceable Reasoning with Attribution-Grounded Evidence), a framework for structured and signal-grounded reasoning over wearable time series. TRACE-TS uses attribution from an expert classifier to identify salient spatio-temporal sensor regions, uses them to construct DAG reasoning traces with explicit evidence provenance, and trains a compact language model to generate these traces through gated cross-attention over sensor memory tokens. At inference, the adapted model jointly outputs the activity prediction and its reasoning trace, without requiring attribution computation or teacher guidance. We introduce Semantic Node Match(SNM), an LLM-as-judge metric that diagnoses reasoning fidelity at the observation, inference, and synthesis levels, localizing hallucinated observations and broken evidence chains missed by standard NLG metrics. Across seven wearable benchmarks, TRACE-TS achieves the best average accuracy and F1 among all evaluated methods (84.43%/81.24%), and outperforms the best LLM-based baseline by 17.96% in F1. Our code is available at https://github.com/SparshRastogi/TRACE-TS.

Sleep abnormalities can have severe health consequences. Automated sleep staging, i.e. labelling the sequence of sleep stages from the patient's physiological recordings, could simplify the diagnostic process. Previous work on automated sleep staging has achieved great results, mainly relying on the EEG signal. However, often multiple sources of information are available beyond EEG. This can be particularly beneficial when the EEG recordings are noisy or even missing completely. In this paper, we propose CoRe-Sleep, a Coordinated Representation multimodal fusion network that is particularly focused on improving the robustness of signal analysis on imperfect data. We demonstrate how appropriately handling multimodal information can be the key to achieving such robustness. CoRe-Sleep tolerates noisy or missing modalities segments, allowing training on incomplete data. Additionally, it shows state-of-the-art performance when testing on both multimodal and unimodal data using a single model on SHHS-1, the largest publicly available study that includes sleep stage labels. The results indicate that training the model on multimodal data does positively influence performance when tested on unimodal data. This work aims at bridging the gap between automated analysis tools and their clinical utility.

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

Diagnosing epilepsy is challenging when routine EEGs lack interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). Intermittent photic stimulation (IPS) and hyperventilation (HV) can increase diagnostic yield, but their interpretation is subjective. We propose a reproducible pipeline that classifies EEG recordings acquired during stimulation procedures, using machine-learning features spanning temporal, spectral, wavelet, and connectivity domains, and a stacked ensemble to combine complementary feature sets. Performance is evaluated with leave-one-subject-out (LOSO) cross-validation on the TUH Epilepsy Corpus and a clinical Erasmus MC (EMC) cohort, including IED-free analyses on TUH. On TUH, ensembles achieve up to 97.8\% AUC / 93.1\% BAC on IED-free resting-state EEG and 94.1\% AUC / 86.8\% BAC on IED-free IPS. On EMC, IPS provides the strongest discrimination (79.4\% AUC / 73.9\% BAC), while HV performance benefits from stratifying subjects by responsiveness. These results indicate that stimulation-evoked activity, particularly IPS, contains meaningful discriminative information for IED-free epilepsy classification and that multi-domain ensembling improves robustness.

Can our brain signals faithfully reflect the original visual stimuli, even including high-frequency details? Although human perceptual and cognitive capacities enable us to process and remember visual information, these abilities are constrained by several factors, such as limited attentional resources and the finite capacity of visual memory. When visual stimuli are processed by human visual system into brain signals, some information is inevitably lost, leading to a discrepancy known as the System GAP. Additionally, perceptual and cognitive dynamics, along with technical noise in signal acquisition, degrade the fidelity of brain signals relative to the visual stimuli, known as the Random GAP. When encoded brain representations are directly aligned with the corresponding pretrained image features, the System GAP and Random GAP between paired data challenge the model, requiring it to bridge these gaps. However, in the context of limited paired data, these gaps are difficult for the model to learn, leading to overfitting and poor generalization to new data. To address these GAPs, we propose a simple yet effective approach called the Uncertainty-aware Blur Prior (UBP). It estimates the uncertainty within the paired data, reflecting the mismatch between brain signals and visual stimuli. Based on this uncertainty, UBP dynamically blurs the high-frequency details of the original images, reducing the impact of the mismatch and improving alignment. Our method achieves a top-1 accuracy of 50.9\% and a top-5 accuracy of 79.7\% on the zero-shot brain-to-image retrieval task, surpassing previous state-of-the-art methods by margins of 13.7\% and 9.8\%, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/HaitaoWuTJU/Uncertainty-aware-Blur-Prior{GitHub}.

Live accompaniment models generate music for an incoming audio stream, committing to each output frame before hearing what comes next. In this strictly causal setting the model must infer tempo, meter, and metrical phase from its own imperfect past, whereby compounding errors quickly become audible as rhythmic drift. Put simply, the model has ears but no temporal reference, so when the ears hear imperfect, ambiguous music, the model will produce a flawed output. We propose Silent Metronome (SiMe), which gives it the temporal reference, encoding the phase within the beat and within the bar as periodic functions, pairing them with tempo and time signature, and supplying the result as a separate conditioning channel. Because this reference is independent of the generated audio, it cannot drift. Complementary auxiliary heads shape the latent representation, including a novel head that predicts the model's own future tokens. With the metrical signal taken from ground-truth annotations, beat alignment improves by a factor of 3.2 over the strictly causal baseline and surpasses a non-causal reference granted a full second of look-ahead. Coherence between input and accompaniment stays within a single point of that reference. These results suggest that streaming accompaniment systems should treat rhythm as a signal to be shared, as human ensembles do, rather than inferred.

In this paper, we study the flow of signals through linear paths with the nonlinear condition that a node emits a signal when it receives external stimuli or when two incoming signals from other nodes arrive coincidentally with a combined amplitude above a fixed threshold. Sets of such nodes form a polychrony group and can sometimes lead to cascades. In the context of this work, cascades are polychrony groups in which the number of nodes activated as a consequence of other nodes is greater than the number of externally activated nodes. The difference between these two numbers is the so-called profit. Given the initial conditions, we predict the conditions for a vertex to activate at a prescribed time and provide an algorithm to efficiently reconstruct a cascade. We develop a dictionary between polychrony groups and graph theory. We call the graph corresponding to a cascade a chinampa. This link leads to a topological classification of chinampas. We enumerate the chinampas of profits zero and one and the description of a family of chinampas isomorphic to a family of partially ordered sets, which implies that the enumeration problem of this family is equivalent to computing the Stanley-order polynomials of those partially ordered sets.