Daily Papers

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become standard for improving LLM reasoning. However, existing PPO-style trust-region mechanisms remain position-agnostic by enforcing uniform thresholds across all tokens independently. This pointwise treatment conflicts with autoregressive generation in two critical ways. First, uniform thresholds ignore autoregressive asymmetry. Early-stage deviations produce compounding sequence-level drift, causing static thresholds to under-regulate early divergence and excessively constrain late-stage exploration. Second, evaluating token-level divergence in isolation overlooks cumulative prefix drift, granting the same divergence allowance regardless of how far the conditioning history has already deviated from the rollout policy. To address this limitation, we propose CPPO (Cumulative Prefix-divergence Policy Optimization), a token-level masking rule that aligns updates with a finite-horizon policy-improvement bound via two coupled mechanisms. First, a position-weighted threshold imposes stricter limits at early positions whose effects persist longer, relaxing constraints for late-stage tokens. Second, a cumulative prefix budget tracks historical deviations, dynamically restricting further token-level deviation to prevent compounding errors along the prefix. Empirically, CPPO enhances training stability and significantly improves reasoning accuracy across various model scales.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Dense retrievers exhibit positional bias, favoring documents whose query-relevant information appears near the beginning and degrading retrieval performance when the information appears later. While prior work on positional bias in dense retrievers has largely focused on architectural explanations, we study how the positional distribution of evidence in training data affects retrieval-level bias direction. To test this, we construct synthetic position-targeted training sets in which query-relevant evidence appears at the beginning, middle, or end of documents, and fine-tune eight architecturally diverse pretrained models under position-skewed and balanced training distributions. At the ranking level, we observe a strong directional pattern across the examined models: skewed training distributions favor evidence at the corresponding positions. Position-balanced training reduces positional sensitivity by 57--87\% on position-aware benchmarks, with competitive mean retrieval performance in our controlled setting. Representation-level analyses further suggest that fine-tuning often reshapes learned positional preferences, although pre-existing architectural or pretraining-specific tendencies persist in some models. These results identify training-position distribution as a major controllable factor in retrieval-level position bias and suggest balanced data curation as a practical mitigation strategy.

Existing losses used in deep metric learning (DML) for image retrieval often lead to highly non-uniform intra-class and inter-class representation structures across test classes and data distributions. When combined with the common practice of using a fixed threshold to declare a match, this gives rise to significant performance variations in terms of false accept rate (FAR) and false reject rate (FRR) across test classes and data distributions. We define this issue in DML as threshold inconsistency. In real-world applications, such inconsistency often complicates the threshold selection process when deploying commercial image retrieval systems. To measure this inconsistency, we propose a novel variance-based metric called Operating-Point-Inconsistency-Score (OPIS) that quantifies the variance in the operating characteristics across classes. Using the OPIS metric, we find that achieving high accuracy levels in a DML model does not automatically guarantee threshold consistency. In fact, our investigation reveals a Pareto frontier in the high-accuracy regime, where existing methods to improve accuracy often lead to degradation in threshold consistency. To address this trade-off, we introduce the Threshold-Consistent Margin (TCM) loss, a simple yet effective regularization technique that promotes uniformity in representation structures across classes by selectively penalizing hard sample pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate TCM's effectiveness in enhancing threshold consistency while preserving accuracy, simplifying the threshold selection process in practical DML settings.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is one of the most used ML classifiers. However, if we observe closely, standard distance-weighted KNN and relative variants assume all 'k' neighbors are equally reliable. In heterogeneous feature space, this becomes a limitation that hinders reliability in predicting true levels of the observation. We propose DW-KNN (Double Weighted KNN), a transparent and robust variant that integrates exponential distance with neighbor validity. This enables instance-level interpretability, suppresses noisy or mislabeled samples, and reduces hyperparameter sensitivity. Comprehensive evaluation on 9 data-sets helps to demonstrate that DW-KNN achieves 0.8988 accuracy on average. It ranks 2nd among six methods and within 0.2% of the best-performing Ensemble KNN. It also exhibits the lowest cross-validation variance (0.0156), indicating reliable prediction stability. Statistical significance test confirmed (p < 0.001) improvement over compactness weighted KNN (+4.09\%) and Kernel weighted KNN (+1.13\%). The method provides a simple yet effective alternative to complex adaptive schemes, particularly valuable for high-stakes applications requiring explainable predictions.

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of these systems typically assumes fixed working points based on pre-defined rejection thresholds, methodological progress requires benchmarking the general performance of systems akin to the AUROC in standard classification. In this work, we define 5 requirements for multi-threshold metrics in selective classification regarding task alignment, interpretability, and flexibility, and show how current approaches fail to meet them. We propose the Area under the Generalized Risk Coverage curve (AUGRC), which meets all requirements and can be directly interpreted as the average risk of undetected failures. We empirically demonstrate the relevance of AUGRC on a comprehensive benchmark spanning 6 data sets and 13 confidence scoring functions. We find that the proposed metric substantially changes metric rankings on 5 out of the 6 data sets.

This paper introduces a new biologically-inspired training method named Continual Learning through Adjustment Suppression and Sparsity Promotion (CLASSP). CLASSP is based on two main principles observed in neuroscience, particularly in the context of synaptic transmission and Long-Term Potentiation (LTP). The first principle is a decay rate over the weight adjustment, which is implemented as a generalization of the AdaGrad optimization algorithm. This means that weights that have received many updates should have lower learning rates as they likely encode important information about previously seen data. However, this principle results in a diffuse distribution of updates throughout the model, as it promotes updates for weights that haven't been previously updated, while a sparse update distribution is preferred to leave weights unassigned for future tasks. Therefore, the second principle introduces a threshold on the loss gradient. This promotes sparse learning by updating a weight only if the loss gradient with respect to that weight is above a certain threshold, i.e. only updating weights with a significant impact on the current loss. Both principles reflect phenomena observed in LTP, where a threshold effect and a gradual saturation of potentiation have been observed. CLASSP is implemented in a Python/PyTorch class, making it applicable to any model. When compared with Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) using Computer Vision and sentiment analysis datasets, CLASSP demonstrates superior performance in terms of accuracy and memory footprint.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is intentionally adjusted. Various methods have been devised to address these problems. Recently, weight balancing, which combines well-known classical regularization techniques with two-stage training, has been proposed. Despite its simplicity, it is known for its high performance compared with existing methods devised in various ways. However, there is a lack of understanding as to why this method is effective for long-tailed data. In this study, we analyze weight balancing by focusing on neural collapse and the cone effect at each training stage and found that it can be decomposed into an increase in Fisher's discriminant ratio of the feature extractor caused by weight decay and cross entropy loss and implicit logit adjustment caused by weight decay and class-balanced loss. Our analysis enables the training method to be further simplified by reducing the number of training stages to one while increasing accuracy.

Relevance and fairness are two major objectives of recommender systems (RSs). Recent work proposes measures of RS fairness that are either independent from relevance (fairness-only) or conditioned on relevance (joint measures). While fairness-only measures have been studied extensively, we look into whether joint measures can be trusted. We collect all joint evaluation measures of RS relevance and fairness, and ask: How much do they agree with each other? To what extent do they agree with relevance/fairness measures? How sensitive are they to changes in rank position, or to increasingly fair and relevant recommendations? We empirically study for the first time the behaviour of these measures across 4 real-world datasets and 4 recommenders. We find that most of these measures: i) correlate weakly with one another and even contradict each other at times; ii) are less sensitive to rank position changes than relevance- and fairness-only measures, meaning that they are less granular than traditional RS measures; and iii) tend to compress scores at the low end of their range, meaning that they are not very expressive. We counter the above limitations with a set of guidelines on the appropriate usage of such measures, i.e., they should be used with caution due to their tendency to contradict each other and of having a very small empirical range.

In recent years, multiple notions of algorithmic fairness have arisen. One such notion is individual fairness (IF), which requires that individuals who are similar receive similar treatment. In parallel, matrix estimation (ME) has emerged as a natural paradigm for handling noisy data with missing values. In this work, we connect the two concepts. We show that pre-processing data using ME can improve an algorithm's IF without sacrificing performance. Specifically, we show that using a popular ME method known as singular value thresholding (SVT) to pre-process the data provides a strong IF guarantee under appropriate conditions. We then show that, under analogous conditions, SVT pre-processing also yields estimates that are consistent and approximately minimax optimal. As such, the ME pre-processing step does not, under the stated conditions, increase the prediction error of the base algorithm, i.e., does not impose a fairness-performance trade-off. We verify these results on synthetic and real data.

We consider a binary classification problem under group fairness constraints, which can be one of Demographic Parity (DP), Equalized Opportunity (EOp), or Equalized Odds (EO). We propose an explicit characterization of Bayes optimal classifier under the fairness constraints, which turns out to be a simple modification rule of the unconstrained classifier. Namely, we introduce a novel instance-level measure of bias, which we call bias score, and the modification rule is a simple linear rule on top of the finite amount of bias scores.Based on this characterization, we develop a post-hoc approach that allows us to adapt to fairness constraints while maintaining high accuracy. In the case of DP and EOp constraints, the modification rule is thresholding a single bias score, while in the case of EO constraints we are required to fit a linear modification rule with 2 parameters. The method can also be applied for composite group-fairness criteria, such as ones involving several sensitive attributes.

While dense retrieval models have achieved remarkable success, rigorous evaluation of their sensitivity to the position of relevant information (i.e., position bias) remains largely unexplored. Existing benchmarks typically employ position-agnostic relevance labels, conflating the challenge of processing long contexts with the bias against specific evidence locations. To address this challenge, we introduce PosIR (Position-Aware Information Retrieval), a comprehensive benchmark designed to diagnose position bias in diverse retrieval scenarios. PosIR comprises 310 datasets spanning 10 languages and 31 domains, constructed through a rigorous pipeline that ties relevance to precise reference spans, enabling the strict disentanglement of document length from information position. Extensive experiments with 10 state-of-the-art embedding models reveal that: (1) Performance on PosIR in long-context settings correlates poorly with the MMTEB benchmark, exposing limitations in current short-text benchmarks; (2) Position bias is pervasive and intensifies with document length, with most models exhibiting primacy bias while certain models show unexpected recency bias; (3) Gradient-based saliency analysis further uncovers the distinct internal attention mechanisms driving these positional preferences. In summary, PosIR serves as a valuable diagnostic framework to foster the development of position-robust retrieval systems.

Positional bias (PB), manifesting as non-uniform sensitivity across different contextual locations, significantly impairs long-context comprehension and processing capabilities. While prior work seeks to mitigate PB through modifying the architectures causing its emergence, significant PB still persists. To address PB effectively, we introduce Pos2Distill, a position to position knowledge distillation framework. Pos2Distill transfers the superior capabilities from advantageous positions to less favorable ones, thereby reducing the huge performance gaps. The conceptual principle is to leverage the inherent, position-induced disparity to counteract the PB itself. We identify distinct manifestations of PB under \textsc{r}etrieval and \textsc{r}easoning paradigms, thereby designing two specialized instantiations: Pos2Distill-R\textsuperscript{1} and Pos2Distill-R\textsuperscript{2} respectively, both grounded in this core principle. By employing the Pos2Distill approach, we achieve enhanced uniformity and significant performance gains across all contextual positions in long-context retrieval and reasoning tasks. Crucially, both specialized systems exhibit strong cross-task generalization mutually, while achieving superior performance on their respective tasks.

Unsupervised feature extraction algorithms form one of the most important building blocks in machine learning systems. These algorithms are often adapted to the event-based domain to perform online learning in neuromorphic hardware. However, not designed for the purpose, such algorithms typically require significant simplification during implementation to meet hardware constraints, creating trade offs with performance. Furthermore, conventional feature extraction algorithms are not designed to generate useful intermediary signals which are valuable only in the context of neuromorphic hardware limitations. In this work a novel event-based feature extraction method is proposed that focuses on these issues. The algorithm operates via simple adaptive selection thresholds which allow a simpler implementation of network homeostasis than previous works by trading off a small amount of information loss in the form of missed events that fall outside the selection thresholds. The behavior of the selection thresholds and the output of the network as a whole are shown to provide uniquely useful signals indicating network weight convergence without the need to access network weights. A novel heuristic method for network size selection is proposed which makes use of noise events and their feature representations. The use of selection thresholds is shown to produce network activation patterns that predict classification accuracy allowing rapid evaluation and optimization of system parameters without the need to run back-end classifiers. The feature extraction method is tested on both the N-MNIST benchmarking dataset and a dataset of airplanes passing through the field of view. Multiple configurations with different classifiers are tested with the results quantifying the resultant performance gains at each processing stage.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

LLM-based listwise passage reranking has attracted attention for its effectiveness in ranking candidate passages. However, these models suffer from positional bias, where passages positioned towards the end of the input are less likely to be moved to top positions in the ranking. We hypothesize that there are two primary sources of positional bias: (1) architectural bias inherent in LLMs and (2) the imbalanced positioning of relevant documents. To address this, we propose DebiasFirst, a method that integrates positional calibration and position-aware data augmentation during fine-tuning. Positional calibration uses inverse propensity scoring to adjust for positional bias by re-weighting the contributions of different positions in the loss function when training. Position-aware augmentation augments training data to ensure that each passage appears equally across varied positions in the input list. This approach markedly enhances both effectiveness and robustness to the original ranking across diverse first-stage retrievers, reducing the dependence of NDCG@10 performance on the position of relevant documents. DebiasFirst also complements the inference-stage debiasing methods, offering a practical solution for mitigating positional bias in reranking.

Unintended bias in Machine Learning can manifest as systemic differences in performance for different demographic groups, potentially compounding existing challenges to fairness in society at large. In this paper, we introduce a suite of threshold-agnostic metrics that provide a nuanced view of this unintended bias, by considering the various ways that a classifier's score distribution can vary across designated groups. We also introduce a large new test set of online comments with crowd-sourced annotations for identity references. We use this to show how our metrics can be used to find new and potentially subtle unintended bias in existing public models.

In this paper, we investigate a problem of actively learning threshold in latent space, where the unknown reward g(gamma, v) depends on the proposed threshold gamma and latent value v and it can be only achieved if the threshold is lower than or equal to the unknown latent value. This problem has broad applications in practical scenarios, e.g., reserve price optimization in online auctions, online task assignments in crowdsourcing, setting recruiting bars in hiring, etc. We first characterize the query complexity of learning a threshold with the expected reward at most epsilon smaller than the optimum and prove that the number of queries needed can be infinitely large even when g(gamma, v) is monotone with respect to both gamma and v. On the positive side, we provide a tight query complexity Theta(1/epsilon^3) when g is monotone and the CDF of value distribution is Lipschitz. Moreover, we show a tight Theta(1/epsilon^3) query complexity can be achieved as long as g satisfies one-sided Lipschitzness, which provides a complete characterization for this problem. Finally, we extend this model to an online learning setting and demonstrate a tight Theta(T^{2/3}) regret bound using continuous-arm bandit techniques and the aforementioned query complexity results.

The advancement of large language models (LLMs) has made it difficult to differentiate human-written text from AI-generated text. Several AI-text detectors have been developed in response, which typically utilize a fixed global threshold (e.g., {\theta} = 0.5) to classify machine-generated text. However, we find that one universal threshold can fail to account for subgroup-specific distributional variations. For example, when using a fixed threshold, detectors make more false positive errors on shorter human-written text than longer, and more positive classifications on neurotic writing styles than open among long text. These discrepancies can lead to misclassification that disproportionately affects certain groups. We address this critical limitation by introducing FairOPT, an algorithm for group-specific threshold optimization in AI-generated content classifiers. Our approach partitions data into subgroups based on attributes (e.g., text length and writing style) and learns decision thresholds for each group, which enables careful balancing of performance and fairness metrics within each subgroup. In experiments with four AI text classifiers on three datasets, FairOPT enhances overall F1 score and decreases balanced error rate (BER) discrepancy across subgroups. Our framework paves the way for more robust and fair classification criteria in AI-generated output detection.

Position bias has proven to be a prevalent issue of modern language models (LMs), where the models prioritize content based on its position within the given context. This bias often leads to unexpected model failures and hurts performance, robustness, and reliability across various applications. Our mechanistic analysis attributes the position bias to two components employed in nearly all state-of-the-art LMs: causal attention and relative positional encodings. Specifically, we find that causal attention generally causes models to favor distant content, while relative positional encodings like RoPE prefer nearby ones based on the analysis of retrieval-augmented question answering (QA). Further, our empirical study on object detection reveals that position bias is also present in vision-language models (VLMs). Based on the above analyses, we propose to ELIMINATE position bias caused by different input segment orders (e.g., options in LM-as-a-judge, retrieved documents in QA) in a TRAINING-FREE ZERO-SHOT manner. Our method changes the causal attention to bidirectional attention between segments and utilizes model attention values to decide the relative orders of segments instead of using the order provided in input prompts, therefore enabling Position-INvariant inferencE (PINE) at the segment level. By eliminating position bias, models achieve better performance and reliability in downstream tasks where position bias widely exists, such as LM-as-a-judge and retrieval-augmented QA. Notably, PINE is especially useful when adapting LMs for evaluating reasoning pairs: it consistently provides 8 to 10 percentage points performance gains in most cases, and makes Llama-3-70B-Instruct perform even better than GPT-4-0125-preview on the RewardBench reasoning subset.

In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bias where some individuals/subgroups can be worse off than under simply optimizing for accuracy. For instance, a classifier implementing race-based parity may significantly disadvantage women of the advantaged race. To quantify this bias, we propose a general notion of eta-infra-marginality that can be used to evaluate the extent of this bias. We prove theoretically that, unlike other fairness metrics, infra-marginality does not have a trade-off with accuracy: high accuracy directly leads to low infra-marginality. This observation is confirmed through empirical analysis on multiple simulated and real-world datasets. Further, we find that maximizing group fairness often increases infra-marginality, suggesting the consideration of both group-level fairness and individual-level infra-marginality. However, measuring infra-marginality requires knowledge of the true distribution of individual-level outcomes correctly and explicitly. We propose a practical method to measure infra-marginality, and a simple algorithm to maximize group-wise accuracy and avoid infra-marginality.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Closed-loop decision-making systems (e.g., lending, screening, or recidivism risk assessment) often operate under fairness and service constraints while inducing feedback effects: decisions change who appears in the future, yielding non-stationary data and potentially amplifying disparities. We study online learning of a one-dimensional threshold policy from bandit feedback under demographic parity (DP) and, optionally, service-rate constraints. The learner observes only a scalar score each round and selects a threshold; reward and constraint residuals are revealed only for the chosen threshold. We propose Optimistic Feasible Search (OFS), a simple grid-based method that maintains confidence bounds for reward and constraint residuals for each candidate threshold. At each round, OFS selects a threshold that appears feasible under confidence bounds and, among those, maximizes optimistic reward; if no threshold appears feasible, OFS selects the threshold minimizing optimistic constraint violation. This design directly targets feasible high-utility thresholds and is particularly effective for low-dimensional, interpretable policy classes where discretization is natural. We evaluate OFS on (i) a synthetic closed-loop benchmark with stable contraction dynamics and (ii) two semi-synthetic closed-loop benchmarks grounded in German Credit and COMPAS, constructed by training a score model and feeding group-dependent acceptance decisions back into population composition. Across all environments, OFS achieves higher reward with smaller cumulative constraint violation than unconstrained and primal-dual bandit baselines, and is near-oracle relative to the best feasible fixed threshold under the same sweep procedure. Experiments are reproducible and organized with double-blind-friendly relative outputs.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Mehta and Panigrahi (2012) proposed Online Matching with Stochastic Rewards, which generalizes the Online Bipartite Matching problem of Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani (1990) by associating the edges with success probabilities. This new feature captures the pay-per-click model in online advertising. Recently, Huang and Zhang (2020) studied this problem under the online primal dual framework using the Configuration Linear Program (LP), and got the best known competitive ratios of the Stochastic Balance algorithm. Their work suggests that the more expressive Configuration LP is more suitable for this problem than the Matching LP. This paper advances the theory of Configuration LP in two directions. Our technical contribution includes a characterization of the joint matching outcome of an offline vertex and all its neighbors. This characterization may be of independent interest, and is aligned with the spirit of Configuration LP. By contrast, previous analyses of Ranking generally focus on only one neighbor. Second, we designed a Stochastic Configuration LP that captures a stochastic benchmark proposed by Goyal and Udwani (2020), who used a Path-based LP. The Stochastic Configuration LP is smaller and simpler than the Path-based LP. Moreover, using the new LP we improved the competitive ratio of Stochastic Balance from 0.596 to 0.611 when the success probabilities are infinitesimal, and to 0.613 when the success probabilities are further equal.

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

Prompt-based classifiers are an attractive approach for zero-shot classification. However, the precise choice of the prompt template and label words can largely influence performance, with semantically equivalent settings often showing notable performance difference. This discrepancy can be partly attributed to word biases, where the classifier may be biased towards classes. To address this problem, it is possible to optimise classification thresholds on a labelled data set, however, this mitigates some of the advantages of prompt-based classifiers. This paper instead approaches this problem by examining the expected marginal probabilities of the classes. Here, probabilities are reweighted to have a uniform prior over classes, in an unsupervised fashion. Further, we draw a theoretical connection between the class priors and the language models' word prior, and offer the ability to set a threshold in a zero-resource fashion. We show that matching class priors correlates strongly with the oracle upper bound performance and demonstrate large consistent performance gains for prompt settings over a range of NLP tasks.

Eliminating examination bias accurately is pivotal to apply click-through data to train an unbiased ranking model. However, most examination-bias estimators are limited to the hypothesis of Position-Based Model (PBM), which supposes that the calculation of examination bias only depends on the rank of the document. Recently, although some works introduce information such as clicks in the same query list and contextual information when calculating the examination bias, they still do not model the impact of document representation on search engine result pages (SERPs) that seriously affects one's perception of document relevance to a query when examining. Therefore, we propose a Multi-Feature Integration Model (MFIM) where the examination bias depends on the representation of document except the rank of it. Furthermore, we mine a key factor slipoff counts that can indirectly reflects the influence of all perception-bias factors. Real world experiments on Baidu-ULTR dataset demonstrate the superior effectiveness and robustness of the new approach. The source code is available at https://github.com/lixsh6/Tencent_wsdm_cup2023/tree/main/pytorch_unbias{https://github.com/lixsh6/Tencent\_wsdm\_cup2023}

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Fairness and relevance are two important aspects of recommender systems (RSs). Typically, they are evaluated either (i) separately by individual measures of fairness and relevance, or (ii) jointly using a single measure that accounts for fairness with respect to relevance. However, approach (i) often does not provide a reliable joint estimate of the goodness of the models, as it has two different best models: one for fairness and another for relevance. Approach (ii) is also problematic because these measures tend to be ad-hoc and do not relate well to traditional relevance measures, like NDCG. Motivated by this, we present a new approach for jointly evaluating fairness and relevance in RSs: Distance to Pareto Frontier (DPFR). Given some user-item interaction data, we compute their Pareto frontier for a pair of existing relevance and fairness measures, and then use the distance from the frontier as a measure of the jointly achievable fairness and relevance. Our approach is modular and intuitive as it can be computed with existing measures. Experiments with 4 RS models, 3 re-ranking strategies, and 6 datasets show that existing metrics have inconsistent associations with our Pareto-optimal solution, making DPFR a more robust and theoretically well-founded joint measure for assessing fairness and relevance. Our code: https://github.com/theresiavr/DPFR-recsys-evaluation

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

Conditional diffusion models have shown remarkable performance in various generative tasks, but training them requires large-scale datasets that often contain noise in conditional inputs, a.k.a. noisy labels. This noise leads to condition mismatch and quality degradation of generated data. This paper proposes Transition-aware weighted Denoising Score Matching (TDSM) for training conditional diffusion models with noisy labels, which is the first study in the line of diffusion models. The TDSM objective contains a weighted sum of score networks, incorporating instance-wise and time-dependent label transition probabilities. We introduce a transition-aware weight estimator, which leverages a time-dependent noisy-label classifier distinctively customized to the diffusion process. Through experiments across various datasets and noisy label settings, TDSM improves the quality of generated samples aligned with given conditions. Furthermore, our method improves generation performance even on prevalent benchmark datasets, which implies the potential noisy labels and their risk of generative model learning. Finally, we show the improved performance of TDSM on top of conventional noisy label corrections, which empirically proving its contribution as a part of label-noise robust generative models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/byeonghu-na/tdsm.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

Recent discoveries on neural network pruning reveal that, with a carefully chosen layerwise sparsity, a simple magnitude-based pruning achieves state-of-the-art tradeoff between sparsity and performance. However, without a clear consensus on "how to choose," the layerwise sparsities are mostly selected algorithm-by-algorithm, often resorting to handcrafted heuristics or an extensive hyperparameter search. To fill this gap, we propose a novel importance score for global pruning, coined layer-adaptive magnitude-based pruning (LAMP) score; the score is a rescaled version of weight magnitude that incorporates the model-level ell_2 distortion incurred by pruning, and does not require any hyperparameter tuning or heavy computation. Under various image classification setups, LAMP consistently outperforms popular existing schemes for layerwise sparsity selection. Furthermore, we observe that LAMP continues to outperform baselines even in weight-rewinding setups, while the connectivity-oriented layerwise sparsity (the strongest baseline overall) performs worse than a simple global magnitude-based pruning in this case. Code: https://github.com/jaeho-lee/layer-adaptive-sparsity

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

Class imbalance in binary classification tasks remains a significant challenge in machine learning, often resulting in poor performance on minority classes. This study comprehensively evaluates three widely-used strategies for handling class imbalance: Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Class Weights tuning, and Decision Threshold Calibration. We compare these methods against a baseline scenario of no-intervention across 15 diverse machine learning models and 30 datasets from various domains, conducting a total of 9,000 experiments. Performance was primarily assessed using the F1-score, although our study also tracked results on additional 9 metrics including F2-score, precision, recall, Brier-score, PR-AUC, and AUC. Our results indicate that all three strategies generally outperform the baseline, with Decision Threshold Calibration emerging as the most consistently effective technique. However, we observed substantial variability in the best-performing method across datasets, highlighting the importance of testing multiple approaches for specific problems. This study provides valuable insights for practitioners dealing with imbalanced datasets and emphasizes the need for dataset-specific analysis in evaluating class imbalance handling techniques.

As Learning-to-Rank (LTR) approaches primarily seek to improve ranking quality, their output scores are not scale-calibrated by design. This fundamentally limits LTR usage in score-sensitive applications. Though a simple multi-objective approach that combines a regression and a ranking objective can effectively learn scale-calibrated scores, we argue that the two objectives are not necessarily compatible, which makes the trade-off less ideal for either of them. In this paper, we propose a practical regression compatible ranking (RCR) approach that achieves a better trade-off, where the two ranking and regression components are proved to be mutually aligned. Although the same idea applies to ranking with both binary and graded relevance, we mainly focus on binary labels in this paper. We evaluate the proposed approach on several public LTR benchmarks and show that it consistently achieves either best or competitive result in terms of both regression and ranking metrics, and significantly improves the Pareto frontiers in the context of multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we evaluated the proposed approach on YouTube Search and found that it not only improved the ranking quality of the production pCTR model, but also brought gains to the click prediction accuracy. The proposed approach has been successfully deployed in the YouTube production system.

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

In theoretical neuroscience, recent work leverages deep learning tools to explore how some network attributes critically influence its learning dynamics. Notably, initial weight distributions with small (resp. large) variance may yield a rich (resp. lazy) regime, where significant (resp. minor) changes to network states and representation are observed over the course of learning. However, in biology, neural circuit connectivity could exhibit a low-rank structure and therefore differs markedly from the random initializations generally used for these studies. As such, here we investigate how the structure of the initial weights -- in particular their effective rank -- influences the network learning regime. Through both empirical and theoretical analyses, we discover that high-rank initializations typically yield smaller network changes indicative of lazier learning, a finding we also confirm with experimentally-driven initial connectivity in recurrent neural networks. Conversely, low-rank initialization biases learning towards richer learning. Importantly, however, as an exception to this rule, we find lazier learning can still occur with a low-rank initialization that aligns with task and data statistics. Our research highlights the pivotal role of initial weight structures in shaping learning regimes, with implications for metabolic costs of plasticity and risks of catastrophic forgetting.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

We consider the problem of subset selection where one is given multiple rankings of items and the goal is to select the highest ``quality'' subset. Score functions from the multiwinner voting literature have been used to aggregate rankings into quality scores for subsets. We study this setting of subset selection problems when, in addition, rankings may contain systemic or unconscious biases toward a group of items. For a general model of input rankings and biases, we show that requiring the selected subset to satisfy group fairness constraints can improve the quality of the selection with respect to unbiased rankings. Importantly, we show that for fairness constraints to be effective, different multiwinner score functions may require a drastically different number of rankings: While for some functions, fairness constraints need an exponential number of rankings to recover a close-to-optimal solution, for others, this dependency is only polynomial. This result relies on a novel notion of ``smoothness'' of submodular functions in this setting that quantifies how well a function can ``correctly'' assess the quality of items in the presence of bias. The results in this paper can be used to guide the choice of multiwinner score functions for the subset selection setting considered here; we additionally provide a tool to empirically enable this.

We propose the Bayes-UCBVI algorithm for reinforcement learning in tabular, stage-dependent, episodic Markov decision process: a natural extension of the Bayes-UCB algorithm by Kaufmann et al. (2012) for multi-armed bandits. Our method uses the quantile of a Q-value function posterior as upper confidence bound on the optimal Q-value function. For Bayes-UCBVI, we prove a regret bound of order O(H^3SAT) where H is the length of one episode, S is the number of states, A the number of actions, T the number of episodes, that matches the lower-bound of Ω(H^3SAT) up to poly-log terms in H,S,A,T for a large enough T. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that obtains an optimal dependence on the horizon H (and S) without the need for an involved Bernstein-like bonus or noise. Crucial to our analysis is a new fine-grained anti-concentration bound for a weighted Dirichlet sum that can be of independent interest. We then explain how Bayes-UCBVI can be easily extended beyond the tabular setting, exhibiting a strong link between our algorithm and Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin, 1981).

We use a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under intermittent androgen suppression (IAS) to study a threshold-based policy for therapy design. IAS is currently one of the most widely used treatments for advanced prostate cancer. Patients undergoing IAS are submitted to cycles of treatment (in the form of androgen deprivation) and off-treatment periods in an alternating manner. One of the main challenges in IAS is to optimally design a therapy scheme, i.e., to determine when to discontinue and recommence androgen suppression. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. The threshold-based policy we propose is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. Using Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA), we derive unbiased gradient estimators of this cost metric with respect to the controllable PSA threshold values based on actual data and show how these estimators can be used to adaptively adjust controllable parameters so as to improve therapy outcomes based on the cost metric defined.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Precision medicine, such as patient-adaptive treatments assisted by medical image analysis, poses new challenges for segmentation algorithms in adapting to new patients, due to the large variability across different patients and the limited availability of annotated data for each patient. In this work, we propose a data-efficient segmentation algorithm, namely Part-aware Prompted Segment Anything Model (P^2SAM). Without any model fine-tuning, P^2SAM enables seamless adaptation to any new patients relying only on one-shot patient-specific data. We introduce a novel part-aware prompt mechanism to select multiple-point prompts based on the part-level features of the one-shot data, which can be extensively integrated into different promptable segmentation models, such as SAM and SAM 2. Moreover, to determine the optimal number of parts for each specific case, we propose a distribution-guided retrieval approach that further enhances the robustness of the part-aware prompt mechanism. P^2SAM improves the performance by +8.0% and +2.0% mean Dice score for two different patient-adaptive segmentation applications, respectively. In addition, P^2SAM also exhibits impressive generalizability in other adaptive segmentation tasks in the natural image domain, e.g., +6.4% mIoU within personalized object segmentation task. The code is available at: https://github.com/Zch0414/p2sam

Preference learning algorithms (e.g., RLHF and DPO) are frequently used to steer LLMs to produce generations that are more preferred by humans, but our understanding of their inner workings is still limited. In this work, we study the conventional wisdom that preference learning trains models to assign higher likelihoods to more preferred outputs than less preferred outputs, measured via ranking accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that most state-of-the-art preference-tuned models achieve a ranking accuracy of less than 60% on common preference datasets. We furthermore derive the idealized ranking accuracy that a preference-tuned LLM would achieve if it optimized the DPO or RLHF objective perfectly. We demonstrate that existing models exhibit a significant alignment gap -- i.e., a gap between the observed and idealized ranking accuracies. We attribute this discrepancy to the DPO objective, which is empirically and theoretically ill-suited to fix even mild ranking errors in the reference model, and derive a simple and efficient formula for quantifying the difficulty of learning a given preference datapoint. Finally, we demonstrate that ranking accuracy strongly correlates with the empirically popular win rate metric when the model is close to the reference model used in the objective, shedding further light on the differences between on-policy (e.g., RLHF) and off-policy (e.g., DPO) preference learning algorithms.

Individual user fairness is commonly understood as treating similar users similarly. In Recommender Systems (RSs), several evaluation measures exist for quantifying individual user fairness. These measures evaluate fairness via either: (i) the disparity in RS effectiveness scores regardless of user similarity, or (ii) the disparity in items recommended to similar users regardless of item relevance. Both disparity in recommendation effectiveness and user similarity are very important in fairness, yet no existing individual user fairness measure simultaneously accounts for both. In brief, current user fairness evaluation measures implement a largely incomplete definition of fairness. To fill this gap, we present Pairwise User unFairness (PUF), a novel evaluation measure of individual user fairness that considers both effectiveness disparity and user similarity. PUF is the only measure that can express this important distinction. We empirically validate that PUF does this consistently across 4 datasets and 7 rankers, and robustly when varying user similarity or effectiveness. In contrast, all other measures are either almost insensitive to effectiveness disparity or completely insensitive to user similarity. We contribute the first RS evaluation measure to reliably capture both user similarity and effectiveness in individual user fairness. Our code: https://github.com/theresiavr/PUF-individual-user-fairness-recsys.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

The problems of detecting and recovering planted structures/subgraphs in Erdős-Rényi random graphs, have received significant attention over the past three decades, leading to many exciting results and mathematical techniques. However, prior work has largely focused on specific ad hoc planted structures and inferential settings, while a general theory has remained elusive. In this paper, we bridge this gap by investigating the detection of an arbitrary planted subgraph Γ= Γ_n in an Erdős-Rényi random graph G(n, q_n), where the edge probability within Γ is p_n. We examine both the statistical and computational aspects of this problem and establish the following results. In the dense regime, where the edge probabilities p_n and q_n are fixed, we tightly characterize the information-theoretic and computational thresholds for detecting Γ, and provide conditions under which a computational-statistical gap arises. Most notably, these thresholds depend on Γ only through its number of edges, maximum degree, and maximum subgraph density. Our lower and upper bounds are general and apply to any value of p_n and q_n as functions of n. Accordingly, we also analyze the sparse regime where q_n = Θ(n^{-α}) and p_n-q_n =Θ(q_n), with αin[0,2], as well as the critical regime where p_n=1-o(1) and q_n = Θ(n^{-α}), both of which have been widely studied, for specific choices of Γ. For these regimes, we show that our bounds are tight for all planted subgraphs investigated in the literature thus farand many more. Finally, we identify conditions under which detection undergoes sharp phase transition, where the boundaries at which algorithms succeed or fail shift abruptly as a function of q_n.

Recent studies show that paddings in convolutional neural networks encode absolute position information which can negatively affect the model performance for certain tasks. However, existing metrics for quantifying the strength of positional information remain unreliable and frequently lead to erroneous results. To address this issue, we propose novel metrics for measuring (and visualizing) the encoded positional information. We formally define the encoded information as PPP (Position-information Pattern from Padding) and conduct a series of experiments to study its properties as well as its formation. The proposed metrics measure the presence of positional information more reliably than the existing metrics based on PosENet and a test in F-Conv. We also demonstrate that for any extant (and proposed) padding schemes, PPP is primarily a learning artifact and is less dependent on the characteristics of the underlying padding schemes.

This paper presents a differentially private approach to Kaplan-Meier estimation that achieves accurate survival probability estimates while safeguarding individual privacy. The Kaplan-Meier estimator is widely used in survival analysis to estimate survival functions over time, yet applying it to sensitive datasets, such as clinical records, risks revealing private information. To address this, we introduce a novel algorithm that applies time-indexed Laplace noise, dynamic clipping, and smoothing to produce a privacy-preserving survival curve while maintaining the cumulative structure of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. By scaling noise over time, the algorithm accounts for decreasing sensitivity as fewer individuals remain at risk, while dynamic clipping and smoothing prevent extreme values and reduce fluctuations, preserving the natural shape of the survival curve. Our results, evaluated on the NCCTG lung cancer dataset, show that the proposed method effectively lowers root mean squared error (RMSE) and enhances accuracy across privacy budgets (epsilon). At epsilon = 10, the algorithm achieves an RMSE as low as 0.04, closely approximating non-private estimates. Additionally, membership inference attacks reveal that higher epsilon values (e.g., epsilon geq 6) significantly reduce influential points, particularly at higher thresholds, lowering susceptibility to inference attacks. These findings confirm that our approach balances privacy and utility, advancing privacy-preserving survival analysis.

Medical systematic reviews typically require assessing all the documents retrieved by a search. The reason is two-fold: the task aims for ``total recall''; and documents retrieved using Boolean search are an unordered set, and thus it is unclear how an assessor could examine only a subset. Screening prioritisation is the process of ranking the (unordered) set of retrieved documents, allowing assessors to begin the downstream processes of the systematic review creation earlier, leading to earlier completion of the review, or even avoiding screening documents ranked least relevant. Screening prioritisation requires highly effective ranking methods. Pre-trained language models are state-of-the-art on many IR tasks but have yet to be applied to systematic review screening prioritisation. In this paper, we apply several pre-trained language models to the systematic review document ranking task, both directly and fine-tuned. An empirical analysis compares how effective neural methods compare to traditional methods for this task. We also investigate different types of document representations for neural methods and their impact on ranking performance. Our results show that BERT-based rankers outperform the current state-of-the-art screening prioritisation methods. However, BERT rankers and existing methods can actually be complementary, and thus, further improvements may be achieved if used in conjunction.

Modern detection transformers (DETRs) use a set of object queries to predict a list of bounding boxes, sort them by their classification confidence scores, and select the top-ranked predictions as the final detection results for the given input image. A highly performant object detector requires accurate ranking for the bounding box predictions. For DETR-based detectors, the top-ranked bounding boxes suffer from less accurate localization quality due to the misalignment between classification scores and localization accuracy, thus impeding the construction of high-quality detectors. In this work, we introduce a simple and highly performant DETR-based object detector by proposing a series of rank-oriented designs, combinedly called Rank-DETR. Our key contributions include: (i) a rank-oriented architecture design that can prompt positive predictions and suppress the negative ones to ensure lower false positive rates, as well as (ii) a rank-oriented loss function and matching cost design that prioritizes predictions of more accurate localization accuracy during ranking to boost the AP under high IoU thresholds. We apply our method to improve the recent SOTA methods (e.g., H-DETR and DINO-DETR) and report strong COCO object detection results when using different backbones such as ResNet-50, Swin-T, and Swin-L, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/Rank-DETR.

Objective estimators of multimedia quality are often judged by comparing estimates with subjective "truth data," most often via Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) or mean-squared error (MSE). But subjective test results contain noise, so striving for a PCC of 1.0 or an MSE of 0.0 is neither realistic nor repeatable. Numerous efforts have been made to acknowledge and appropriately accommodate subjective test noise in objective-subjective comparisons, typically resulting in new analysis frameworks and figures-of-merit. We take a different approach. By making only basic assumptions, we derive bounds on PCC and MSE that can be expected for a subjective test. Consistent with intuition, these bounds are functions of subjective vote variance. When a subjective test includes vote variance information, the calculation of the bounds is easy, and in this case we say the resulting bounds are "fully data-driven." We provide two options for calculating bounds in cases where vote variance information is not available. One option is to use vote variance information from other subjective tests that do provide such information, and the second option is to use a model for subjective votes. Thus we introduce a binomial-based model for subjective votes (BinoVotes) that naturally leads to a mean opinion score (MOS) model, named BinoMOS, with multiple unique desirable properties. BinoMOS reproduces the discrete nature of MOS values and its dependence on the number of votes per file. This modeling provides vote variance information required by the PCC and MSE bounds and we compare this modeling with data from 18 subjective tests. The modeling yields PCC and MSE bounds that agree very well with those found from the data directly. These results allow one to set expectations for the PCC and MSE that might be achieved for any subjective test, even those where vote variance information is not available.

Turning the weights to zero when training a neural network helps in reducing the computational complexity at inference. To progressively increase the sparsity ratio in the network without causing sharp weight discontinuities during training, our work combines soft-thresholding and straight-through gradient estimation to update the raw, i.e. non-thresholded, version of zeroed weights. Our method, named ST-3 for straight-through/soft-thresholding/sparse-training, obtains SoA results, both in terms of accuracy/sparsity and accuracy/FLOPS trade-offs, when progressively increasing the sparsity ratio in a single training cycle. In particular, despite its simplicity, ST-3 favorably compares to the most recent methods, adopting differentiable formulations or bio-inspired neuroregeneration principles. This suggests that the key ingredients for effective sparsification primarily lie in the ability to give the weights the freedom to evolve smoothly across the zero state while progressively increasing the sparsity ratio. Source code and weights available at https://github.com/vanderschuea/stthree

The Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) is a quantity that plays a key role in variational inference. It can also be used as a criterion in model selection. However, though extremely popular in practice in the variational Bayes community, there has never been a general theoretic justification for selecting based on the ELBO. In this paper, we show that the ELBO maximization strategy has strong theoretical guarantees, and is robust to model misspecification while most works rely on the assumption that one model is correctly specified. We illustrate our theoretical results by an application to the selection of the number of principal components in probabilistic PCA.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

With significant advancements in diffusion models, addressing the potential risks of dataset bias becomes increasingly important. Since generated outputs directly suffer from dataset bias, mitigating latent bias becomes a key factor in improving sample quality and proportion. This paper proposes time-dependent importance reweighting to mitigate the bias for the diffusion models. We demonstrate that the time-dependent density ratio becomes more precise than previous approaches, thereby minimizing error propagation in generative learning. While directly applying it to score-matching is intractable, we discover that using the time-dependent density ratio both for reweighting and score correction can lead to a tractable form of the objective function to regenerate the unbiased data density. Furthermore, we theoretically establish a connection with traditional score-matching, and we demonstrate its convergence to an unbiased distribution. The experimental evidence supports the usefulness of the proposed method, which outperforms baselines including time-independent importance reweighting on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, FFHQ, and CelebA with various bias settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/alsdudrla10/TIW-DSM.

Semantic segmentation labels each pixel in an image with its corresponding class, and is typically evaluated using the Intersection over Union (IoU) and Dice metrics to quantify the overlap between predicted and ground-truth segmentation masks. In the literature, most existing methods estimate pixel-wise class probabilities, then apply argmax or thresholding to obtain the final prediction. These methods have been shown to generally lead to inconsistent or suboptimal results, as they do not directly maximize segmentation metrics. To address this issue, a novel consistent segmentation framework, RankSEG, has been proposed, which includes RankDice and RankIoU specifically designed to optimize the Dice and IoU metrics, respectively. Although RankSEG almost guarantees improved performance, it suffers from two major drawbacks. First, it is its computational expense-RankDice has a complexity of O(d log d) with a substantial constant factor (where d represents the number of pixels), while RankIoU exhibits even higher complexity O(d^2), thus limiting its practical application. For instance, in LiTS, prediction with RankSEG takes 16.33 seconds compared to just 0.01 seconds with the argmax rule. Second, RankSEG is only applicable to overlapping segmentation settings, where multiple classes can occupy the same pixel, which contrasts with standard benchmarks that typically assume non-overlapping segmentation. In this paper, we overcome these two drawbacks via a reciprocal moment approximation (RMA) of RankSEG with the following contributions: (i) we improve RankSEG using RMA, namely RankSEG-RMA, reduces the complexity of both algorithms to O(d) while maintaining comparable performance; (ii) inspired by RMA, we develop a pixel-wise score function that allows efficient implementation for non-overlapping segmentation settings.

Reliable automatic seizure detection from long-term EEG remains a challenge, as current machine learning models often fail to generalize across patients or clinical settings. Manual EEG review remains the clinical standard, underscoring the need for robust models and standardized evaluation. To rigorously assess algorithm performance, we organized a challenge using a private dataset of continuous EEG recordings from 65 subjects (4,360 hours). Expert neurophysiologists annotated the data, providing ground truth for seizure events. Participants were required to detect seizure onset and duration, with evaluation based on event-based metrics, including sensitivity, precision, F1-score, and false positives per day. The SzCORE framework ensured standardized evaluation. The primary ranking criterion was the event-based F1-score, reflecting clinical relevance by balancing sensitivity and false positives. The challenge received 30 submissions from 19 teams, with 28 algorithms evaluated. Results revealed wide variability in performance, with a top F1-score of 43% (sensitivity 37%, precision 45%), highlighting the ongoing difficulty of seizure detection. The challenge also revealed a gap between reported performance and real-world evaluation, emphasizing the importance of rigorous benchmarking. Compared to previous challenges and commercial systems, the best-performing algorithm in this contest showed improved performance. Importantly, the challenge platform now supports continuous benchmarking, enabling reproducible research, integration of new datasets, and clinical evaluation of seizure detection algorithms using a standardized framework.

Clinicians trace cephalometric radiographs following a structured anatomical workflow, yet no prior system encodes this into computation. We present a five-phase anatomy-guided pipeline producing confidence-weighted spatial priors that shape HRNet-W32 training, achieving 1.04 mm mean radial error on 25 landmarks across 1,502 radiographs from 7+ imaging devices. A training x inference prior matrix isolates the mechanism: anatomical priors maintain a 1% validation-to-test gap versus 88% without priors (1.94 mm), despite identical validation convergence. The matrix establishes that all trained models are inference-independent, the expanded architecture alone provides no benefit, random priors yield partial but unstable improvement (1.72 mm), and only image-specific anatomically correct priors produce the 1.04 mm result -- functioning as a training-time regularizer requiring no automated prior generation at deployment. Five-fold cross-validation (p=0.0015), patient-level permutation testing (p<0.0001, n=151), quantified Grad-CAM analysis (88% vs. 74% in-zone activation, p<0.001), and clinical measurement validation (skeletal classification kappa=0.79-0.84, zero Class II<->III reversals, ICC>0.95) provide converging evidence. Cross-domain experiments on echocardiography, cervical spine, and hand radiography support the hypothesis that prior effectiveness scales with the spatial entropy of the landmark distribution.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We seek to identify the most relevant benefits offered by Medicare Advantage Health Plans that drive membership and market share. As an example, we explore plans operating in a single county in New Jersey between 2018 and 2023. A dataset of benefits from publicly available data sources was created and the variance inflation factor was applied to identify the correlation between the extracted features, to avoid multicollinearity and overparameterization problems. We categorized the variable Market Share and used it as a multinomial response variable with three categories: less than 0.3\%, 0.3\% to 1.5\%, and over 1.5\%. Categories were chosen to achieve approximately uniform distribution of plans (47, 60, and 65 respectively). We built a multinomial Lasso model using 5-fold cross-validation to tune the penalty parameter. Lasso forced some features to be dropped from the model, which reduces the risk of overfitting and increases the interpretability of the results. For each category, important variables are different. Certain brands drive market share, as do PPO plans and prescription drug coverage. Benefits, particularly ancillary benefits that are not part of CMS's required benefits, appear to have little influence, while financial terms such as deductibles, copays, and out-of-pocket limits are associated with higher market share. Finally, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Lasso model with the test set. The accuracy is 0.76.

Neural networks achieve remarkable performance through superposition: encoding multiple features as overlapping directions in activation space rather than dedicating individual neurons to each feature. This challenges interpretability, yet we lack principled methods to measure superposition. We present an information-theoretic framework measuring a neural representation's effective degrees of freedom. We apply Shannon entropy to sparse autoencoder activations to compute the number of effective features as the minimum neurons needed for interference-free encoding. Equivalently, this measures how many "virtual neurons" the network simulates through superposition. When networks encode more effective features than actual neurons, they must accept interference as the price of compression. Our metric strongly correlates with ground truth in toy models, detects minimal superposition in algorithmic tasks, and reveals systematic reduction under dropout. Layer-wise patterns mirror intrinsic dimensionality studies on Pythia-70M. The metric also captures developmental dynamics, detecting sharp feature consolidation during grokking. Surprisingly, adversarial training can increase effective features while improving robustness, contradicting the hypothesis that superposition causes vulnerability. Instead, the effect depends on task complexity and network capacity: simple tasks with ample capacity allow feature expansion (abundance regime), while complex tasks or limited capacity force reduction (scarcity regime). By defining superposition as lossy compression, this work enables principled measurement of how neural networks organize information under computational constraints, connecting superposition to adversarial robustness.

Bounding boxes are often used to communicate automatic object detection results to humans, aiding humans in a multitude of tasks. We investigate the relationship between bounding box localization errors and human task performance. We use observer performance studies on a visual multi-object counting task to measure both human trust and performance with different levels of bounding box accuracy. The results show that localization errors have no significant impact on human accuracy or trust in the system. Recall and precision errors impact both human performance and trust, suggesting that optimizing algorithms based on the F1 score is more beneficial in human-computer tasks. Lastly, the paper offers an improvement on bounding boxes in multi-object counting tasks with center dots, showing improved performance and better resilience to localization inaccuracy.

We develop a novel approach to explain why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. By introducing a measure of the influence of the noise points (ION) in the training data for the binary classification problem, we prove that there is a strong connection between the ION and the test error. We further identify that the ION of AdaBoost decreases as the iteration number or the complexity of the base learners increases. We confirm that it is impossible to obtain a consistent classifier without deep trees as the base learners of AdaBoost in some complicated situations. We apply AdaBoost in portfolio management via empirical studies in the Chinese market, which corroborates our theoretical propositions.

Latent variable (LV) models are widely used in psychological research to investigate relationships among unobservable constructs. When one-stage estimation of the overall LV model is challenging, two-stage factor score regression (FSR) serves as a convenient alternative: the measurement model is fitted to obtain factor scores in the first stage, which are then used to fit the structural model in the subsequent stage. However, naive application of FSR is known to yield biased estimates of structural parameters. In this paper, we develop a generic bias-correction framework for two-stage estimation of parametric statistical models and tailor it specifically to FSR. Unlike existing bias-corrected FSR solutions, the proposed method applies to a broader class of LV models and does not require computing specific types of factor scores. We establish the root-n consistency of the proposed bias-corrected two-stage estimator under mild regularity conditions. To ensure broad applicability and minimize reliance on complex analytical derivations, we introduce a stochastic approximation algorithm for point estimation and a Monte Carlo-based procedure for variance estimation. In a sequence of Monte Carlo experiments, we demonstrate that the bias-corrected FSR estimator performs comparably to the ``gold standard'' one-stage maximum likelihood estimator. These results suggest that our approach offers a straightforward yet effective alternative for estimating LV models.

Personalized summarization models cater to individuals' subjective understanding of saliency, as represented by their reading history and current topics of attention. Existing personalized text summarizers are primarily evaluated based on accuracy measures such as BLEU, ROUGE, and METEOR. However, a recent study argued that accuracy measures are inadequate for evaluating the degree of personalization of these models and proposed EGISES, the first metric to evaluate personalized text summaries. It was suggested that accuracy is a separate aspect and should be evaluated standalone. In this paper, we challenge the necessity of an accuracy leaderboard, suggesting that relying on accuracy-based aggregated results might lead to misleading conclusions. To support this, we delve deeper into EGISES, demonstrating both theoretically and empirically that it measures the degree of responsiveness, a necessary but not sufficient condition for degree-of-personalization. We subsequently propose PerSEval, a novel measure that satisfies the required sufficiency condition. Based on the benchmarking of ten SOTA summarization models on the PENS dataset, we empirically establish that -- (i) PerSEval is reliable w.r.t human-judgment correlation (Pearson's r = 0.73; Spearman's rho = 0.62; Kendall's tau = 0.42), (ii) PerSEval has high rank-stability, (iii) PerSEval as a rank-measure is not entailed by EGISES-based ranking, and (iv) PerSEval can be a standalone rank-measure without the need of any aggregated ranking.

Recently, we have witnessed the bloom of neural ranking models in the information retrieval (IR) field. So far, much effort has been devoted to developing effective neural ranking models that can generalize well on new data. There has been less attention paid to the robustness perspective. Unlike the effectiveness which is about the average performance of a system under normal purpose, robustness cares more about the system performance in the worst case or under malicious operations instead. When a new technique enters into the real-world application, it is critical to know not only how it works in average, but also how would it behave in abnormal situations. So we raise the question in this work: Are neural ranking models robust? To answer this question, firstly, we need to clarify what we refer to when we talk about the robustness of ranking models in IR. We show that robustness is actually a multi-dimensional concept and there are three ways to define it in IR: 1) The performance variance under the independent and identically distributed (I.I.D.) setting; 2) The out-of-distribution (OOD) generalizability; and 3) The defensive ability against adversarial operations. The latter two definitions can be further specified into two different perspectives respectively, leading to 5 robustness tasks in total. Based on this taxonomy, we build corresponding benchmark datasets, design empirical experiments, and systematically analyze the robustness of several representative neural ranking models against traditional probabilistic ranking models and learning-to-rank (LTR) models. The empirical results show that there is no simple answer to our question. While neural ranking models are less robust against other IR models in most cases, some of them can still win 1 out of 5 tasks. This is the first comprehensive study on the robustness of neural ranking models.

Embedding models are crucial for tasks in Information Retrieval (IR) and semantic similarity measurement, yet their handling of longer texts and associated positional biases remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the impact of content position and input size on text embeddings. Our experiments reveal that embedding models, irrespective of their positional encoding mechanisms, disproportionately prioritize the beginning of an input. Ablation studies demonstrate that insertion of irrelevant text or removal at the start of a document reduces cosine similarity between altered and original embeddings by up to 12.3% more than ablations at the end. Regression analysis further confirms this bias, with sentence importance declining as position moves further from the start, even with with content-agnosticity. We hypothesize that this effect arises from pre-processing strategies and chosen positional encoding techniques. These findings quantify the sensitivity of retrieval systems and suggest a new lens towards embedding model robustness.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

To achieve the highest perceptual quality, state-of-the-art diffusion models are optimized with objectives that typically look very different from the maximum likelihood and the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) objectives. In this work, we reveal that diffusion model objectives are actually closely related to the ELBO. Specifically, we show that all commonly used diffusion model objectives equate to a weighted integral of ELBOs over different noise levels, where the weighting depends on the specific objective used. Under the condition of monotonic weighting, the connection is even closer: the diffusion objective then equals the ELBO, combined with simple data augmentation, namely Gaussian noise perturbation. We show that this condition holds for a number of state-of-the-art diffusion models. In experiments, we explore new monotonic weightings and demonstrate their effectiveness, achieving state-of-the-art FID scores on the high-resolution ImageNet benchmark.

For learning with noisy labels, the transition matrix, which explicitly models the relation between noisy label distribution and clean label distribution, has been utilized to achieve the statistical consistency of either the classifier or the risk. Previous researches have focused more on how to estimate this transition matrix well, rather than how to utilize it. We propose good utilization of the transition matrix is crucial and suggest a new utilization method based on resampling, coined RENT. Specifically, we first demonstrate current utilizations can have potential limitations for implementation. As an extension to Reweighting, we suggest the Dirichlet distribution-based per-sample Weight Sampling (DWS) framework, and compare reweighting and resampling under DWS framework. With the analyses from DWS, we propose RENT, a REsampling method with Noise Transition matrix. Empirically, RENT consistently outperforms existing transition matrix utilization methods, which includes reweighting, on various benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/BaeHeeSun/RENT.

This study investigates a specific form of positional bias, termed the Myopic Trap, where retrieval models disproportionately attend to the early parts of documents while overlooking relevant information that appears later. To systematically quantify this phenomenon, we propose a semantics-preserving evaluation framework that repurposes the existing NLP datasets into position-aware retrieval benchmarks. By evaluating the SOTA models of full retrieval pipeline, including BM25, embedding models, ColBERT-style late-interaction models, and reranker models, we offer a broader empirical perspective on positional bias than prior work. Experimental results show that embedding models and ColBERT-style models exhibit significant performance degradation when query-related content is shifted toward later positions, indicating a pronounced head bias. Notably, under the same training configuration, ColBERT-style approach show greater potential for mitigating positional bias compared to the traditional single-vector approach. In contrast, BM25 and reranker models remain largely unaffected by such perturbations, underscoring their robustness to positional bias. Code and data are publicly available at: www.github.com/NovaSearch-Team/RAG-Retrieval.

Fairness in artificial intelligence models has gained significantly more attention in recent years, especially in the area of medicine, as fairness in medical models is critical to people's well-being and lives. High-quality medical fairness datasets are needed to promote fairness learning research. Existing medical fairness datasets are all for classification tasks, and no fairness datasets are available for medical segmentation, while medical segmentation is an equally important clinical task as classifications, which can provide detailed spatial information on organ abnormalities ready to be assessed by clinicians. In this paper, we propose the first fairness dataset for medical segmentation named Harvard-FairSeg with 10,000 subject samples. In addition, we propose a fair error-bound scaling approach to reweight the loss function with the upper error-bound in each identity group, using the segment anything model (SAM). We anticipate that the segmentation performance equity can be improved by explicitly tackling the hard cases with high training errors in each identity group. To facilitate fair comparisons, we utilize a novel equity-scaled segmentation performance metric to compare segmentation metrics in the context of fairness, such as the equity-scaled Dice coefficient. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate that our fair error-bound scaling approach either has superior or comparable fairness performance to the state-of-the-art fairness learning models. The dataset and code are publicly accessible via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-fairseg10k.

Ranking and scoring are ubiquitous. We consider the setting in which an institution, called a ranker, evaluates a set of individuals based on demographic, behavioral or other characteristics. The final output is a ranking that represents the relative quality of the individuals. While automatic and therefore seemingly objective, rankers can, and often do, discriminate against individuals and systematically disadvantage members of protected groups. This warrants a careful study of the fairness of a ranking scheme. In this paper we propose fairness measures for ranked outputs. We develop a data generation procedure that allows us to systematically control the degree of unfairness in the output, and study the behavior of our measures on these datasets. We then apply our proposed measures to several real datasets, and demonstrate cases of unfairness. Finally, we show preliminary results of incorporating our ranked fairness measures into an optimization framework, and show potential for improving fairness of ranked outputs while maintaining accuracy.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

With the growth of model and data sizes, a broad effort has been made to design pruning techniques that reduce the resource demand of deep learning pipelines, while retaining model performance. In order to reduce both inference and training costs, a prominent line of work uses low-rank matrix factorizations to represent the network weights. Although able to retain accuracy, we observe that low-rank methods tend to compromise model robustness against adversarial perturbations. By modeling robustness in terms of the condition number of the neural network, we argue that this loss of robustness is due to the exploding singular values of the low-rank weight matrices. Thus, we introduce a robust low-rank training algorithm that maintains the network's weights on the low-rank matrix manifold while simultaneously enforcing approximate orthonormal constraints. The resulting model reduces both training and inference costs while ensuring well-conditioning and thus better adversarial robustness, without compromising model accuracy. This is shown by extensive numerical evidence and by our main approximation theorem that shows the computed robust low-rank network well-approximates the ideal full model, provided a highly performing low-rank sub-network exists.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Recently, efficient fine-tuning of large-scale pre-trained models has attracted increasing research interests, where linear probing (LP) as a fundamental module is involved in exploiting the final representations for task-dependent classification. However, most of the existing methods focus on how to effectively introduce a few of learnable parameters, and little work pays attention to the commonly used LP module. In this paper, we propose a novel Moment Probing (MP) method to further explore the potential of LP. Distinguished from LP which builds a linear classification head based on the mean of final features (e.g., word tokens for ViT) or classification tokens, our MP performs a linear classifier on feature distribution, which provides the stronger representation ability by exploiting richer statistical information inherent in features. Specifically, we represent feature distribution by its characteristic function, which is efficiently approximated by using first- and second-order moments of features. Furthermore, we propose a multi-head convolutional cross-covariance (MHC^3) to compute second-order moments in an efficient and effective manner. By considering that MP could affect feature learning, we introduce a partially shared module to learn two recalibrating parameters (PSRP) for backbones based on MP, namely MP_{+}. Extensive experiments on ten benchmarks using various models show that our MP significantly outperforms LP and is competitive with counterparts at less training cost, while our MP_{+} achieves state-of-the-art performance.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

When the performance of a machine learning model varies over groups defined by sensitive attributes (e.g., gender or ethnicity), the performance disparity can be expressed in terms of the probability distributions of the input and output variables over each group. In this paper, we exploit this fact to reduce the disparate impact of a fixed classification model over a population of interest. Given a black-box classifier, we aim to eliminate the performance gap by perturbing the distribution of input variables for the disadvantaged group. We refer to the perturbed distribution as a counterfactual distribution, and characterize its properties for common fairness criteria. We introduce a descent algorithm to learn a counterfactual distribution from data. We then discuss how the estimated distribution can be used to build a data preprocessor that can reduce disparate impact without training a new model. We validate our approach through experiments on real-world datasets, showing that it can repair different forms of disparity without a significant drop in accuracy.

The simulation of human neurons and neurotransmission mechanisms has been realized in deep neural networks based on the theoretical implementations of activation functions. However, recent studies have reported that the threshold potential of neurons exhibits different values according to the locations and types of individual neurons, and that the activation functions have limitations in terms of representing this variability. Therefore, this study proposes a simple yet effective activation function that facilitates different thresholds and adaptive activations according to the positions of units and the contexts of inputs. Furthermore, the proposed activation function mathematically exhibits a more generalized form of Swish activation function, and thus we denoted it as Adaptive SwisH (ASH). ASH highlights informative features that exhibit large values in the top percentiles in an input, whereas it rectifies low values. Most importantly, ASH exhibits trainable, adaptive, and context-aware properties compared to other activation functions. Furthermore, ASH represents general formula of the previously studied activation function and provides a reasonable mathematical background for the superior performance. To validate the effectiveness and robustness of ASH, we implemented ASH into many deep learning models for various tasks, including classification, detection, segmentation, and image generation. Experimental analysis demonstrates that our activation function can provide the benefits of more accurate prediction and earlier convergence in many deep learning applications.

Feature selection is playing an increasingly significant role with respect to many computer vision applications spanning from object recognition to visual object tracking. However, most of the recent solutions in feature selection are not robust across different and heterogeneous set of data. In this paper, we address this issue proposing a robust probabilistic latent graph-based feature selection algorithm that performs the ranking step while considering all the possible subsets of features, as paths on a graph, bypassing the combinatorial problem analytically. An appealing characteristic of the approach is that it aims to discover an abstraction behind low-level sensory data, that is, relevancy. Relevancy is modelled as a latent variable in a PLSA-inspired generative process that allows the investigation of the importance of a feature when injected into an arbitrary set of cues. The proposed method has been tested on ten diverse benchmarks, and compared against eleven state of the art feature selection methods. Results show that the proposed approach attains the highest performance levels across many different scenarios and difficulties, thereby confirming its strong robustness while setting a new state of the art in feature selection domain.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Retrieval Augmented Generation enhances LLM accuracy by adding passages retrieved from an external corpus to the LLM prompt. This paper investigates how positional bias - the tendency of LLMs to weight information differently based on its position in the prompt - affects not only the LLM's capability to capitalize on relevant passages, but also its susceptibility to distracting passages. Through extensive experiments on three benchmarks, we show how state-of-the-art retrieval pipelines, while attempting to retrieve relevant passages, systematically bring highly distracting ones to the top ranks, with over 60% of queries containing at least one highly distracting passage among the top-10 retrieved passages. As a result, the impact of the LLM positional bias, which in controlled settings is often reported as very prominent by related works, is actually marginal in real scenarios since both relevant and distracting passages are, in turn, penalized. Indeed, our findings reveal that sophisticated strategies that attempt to rearrange the passages based on LLM positional preferences do not perform better than random shuffling.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Multi-label classification (MLC) requires predicting multiple labels per sample, often under heavy class imbalance and noisy conditions. Traditional approaches apply fixed thresholds or treat labels independently, overlooking context and global rarity. We introduce an adaptive thresholding mechanism that fuses global (IDF-based) and local (KNN-based) signals to produce per-label, per-instance thresholds. Instead of applying these as hard cutoffs, we treat them as differentiable penalties in the loss, providing smooth supervision and better calibration. Our architecture is lightweight, interpretable, and highly modular. On the AmazonCat-13K benchmark, it achieves a macro-F1 of 0.1712, substantially outperforming tree-based and pretrained transformer-based methods. We release full code for reproducibility and future extensions.

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

We develop a unified mathematical framework for certified Top-k attention truncation that quantifies approximation error at both the distribution and output levels. For a single attention distribution P and its Top-k truncation hat P, we show that the total-variation distance coincides with the discarded softmax tail mass and satisfies TV(P,hat P)=1-e^{-KL(hat PVert P)}, yielding sharp Top-k-specific bounds in place of generic inequalities. From this we derive non-asymptotic deterministic bounds -- from a single boundary gap through multi-gap and blockwise variants -- that control TV(P,hat P) using only the ordered logits. Using an exact head-tail decomposition, we prove that the output error factorizes as |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2=τ|μ_{tail}-μ_{head}|_2 with τ=TV(P,hat P), yielding a new head-tail diameter bound |Attn(q,K,V)-Attn_k(q,K,V)|_2leτ,diam_{H,T} and refinements linking the error to Var_P(V). Under an i.i.d. Gaussian score model s_isimmathcal N(μ,σ^2) we derive closed-form tail masses and an asymptotic rule for the minimal k_varepsilon ensuring TV(P,hat P)levarepsilon, namely k_varepsilon/napproxΦ_c(σ+Φ^{-1}(varepsilon)). Experiments on bert-base-uncased and synthetic logits confirm the predicted scaling of k_varepsilon/n and show that certified Top-k can reduce scored keys by 2-4times on average while meeting the prescribed total-variation budget.

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

Diffusion models may be viewed as hierarchical variational autoencoders (VAEs) with two improvements: parameter sharing for the conditional distributions in the generative process and efficient computation of the loss as independent terms over the hierarchy. We consider two changes to the diffusion model that retain these advantages while adding flexibility to the model. Firstly, we introduce a data- and depth-dependent mean function in the diffusion process, which leads to a modified diffusion loss. Our proposed framework, DiffEnc, achieves a statistically significant improvement in likelihood on CIFAR-10. Secondly, we let the ratio of the noise variance of the reverse encoder process and the generative process be a free weight parameter rather than being fixed to 1. This leads to theoretical insights: For a finite depth hierarchy, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) can be used as an objective for a weighted diffusion loss approach and for optimizing the noise schedule specifically for inference. For the infinite-depth hierarchy, on the other hand, the weight parameter has to be 1 to have a well-defined ELBO.

Learning to rank with biased click data is a well-known challenge. A variety of methods has been explored to debias click data for learning to rank such as click models, result interleaving and, more recently, the unbiased learning-to-rank framework based on inverse propensity weighting. Despite their differences, most existing studies separate the estimation of click bias (namely the propensity model) from the learning of ranking algorithms. To estimate click propensities, they either conduct online result randomization, which can negatively affect the user experience, or offline parameter estimation, which has special requirements for click data and is optimized for objectives (e.g. click likelihood) that are not directly related to the ranking performance of the system. In this work, we address those problems by unifying the learning of propensity models and ranking models. We find that the problem of estimating a propensity model from click data is a dual problem of unbiased learning to rank. Based on this observation, we propose a Dual Learning Algorithm (DLA) that jointly learns an unbiased ranker and an unbiased propensity model. DLA is an automatic unbiased learning-to-rank framework as it directly learns unbiased ranking models from biased click data without any preprocessing. It can adapt to the change of bias distributions and is applicable to online learning. Our empirical experiments with synthetic and real-world data show that the models trained with DLA significantly outperformed the unbiased learning-to-rank algorithms based on result randomization and the models trained with relevance signals extracted by click models.

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Prediction models can exhibit sensitivity with respect to training data: small changes in the training data can produce models that assign conflicting predictions to individual data points during test time. In this work, we study this sensitivity in recommender systems, where users' recommendations are drastically altered by minor perturbations in other unrelated users' interactions. We introduce a measure of stability for recommender systems, called Rank List Sensitivity (RLS), which measures how rank lists generated by a given recommender system at test time change as a result of a perturbation in the training data. We develop a method, CASPER, which uses cascading effect to identify the minimal and systematical perturbation to induce higher instability in a recommender system. Experiments on four datasets show that recommender models are overly sensitive to minor perturbations introduced randomly or via CASPER - even perturbing one random interaction of one user drastically changes the recommendation lists of all users. Importantly, with CASPER perturbation, the models generate more unstable recommendations for low-accuracy users (i.e., those who receive low-quality recommendations) than high-accuracy ones.

Brain stroke remains one of the principal causes of death and disability worldwide, yet most tabular-data prediction models still hover below the 95% accuracy threshold, limiting real-world utility. Addressing this gap, the present work develops and validates a completely data-driven and interpretable machine-learning framework designed to predict strokes using ten routinely gathered demographic, lifestyle, and clinical variables sourced from a public cohort of 4,981 records. We employ a detailed exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand the dataset's structure and distribution, followed by rigorous data preprocessing, including handling missing values, outlier removal, and class imbalance correction using Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE). To streamline feature selection, point-biserial correlation and random-forest Gini importance were utilized, and ten varied algorithms-encompassing tree ensembles, boosting, kernel methods, and a multilayer neural network-were optimized using stratified five-fold cross-validation. Their predictions based on probabilities helped us build the proposed model, which included Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and a support-vector classifier, with logistic regression acting as a meta-learner. The proposed model achieved an accuracy rate of 97.2% and an F1-score of 97.15%, indicating a significant enhancement compared to the leading individual model, LightGBM, which had an accuracy of 91.4%. Our study's findings indicate that rigorous preprocessing, coupled with a diverse hybrid model, can convert low-cost tabular data into a nearly clinical-grade stroke-risk assessment tool.

Learning to rank is a key component of many e-commerce search engines. In learning to rank, one is interested in optimising the global ordering of a list of items according to their utility for users.Popular approaches learn a scoring function that scores items individually (i.e. without the context of other items in the list) by optimising a pointwise, pairwise or listwise loss. The list is then sorted in the descending order of the scores. Possible interactions between items present in the same list are taken into account in the training phase at the loss level. However, during inference, items are scored individually, and possible interactions between them are not considered. In this paper, we propose a context-aware neural network model that learns item scores by applying a self-attention mechanism. The relevance of a given item is thus determined in the context of all other items present in the list, both in training and in inference. We empirically demonstrate significant performance gains of self-attention based neural architecture over Multi-LayerPerceptron baselines, in particular on a dataset coming from search logs of a large scale e-commerce marketplace, Allegro.pl. This effect is consistent across popular pointwise, pairwise and listwise losses.Finally, we report new state-of-the-art results on MSLR-WEB30K, the learning to rank benchmark.