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Apr 13

TS-Arena -- A Live Forecast Pre-Registration Platform

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated train and test time series. To address this, we introduce TS-Arena, a live forecasting platform that shifts evaluation from the known past to the unknown future. Building on the concept of continuous benchmarking, TS-Arena evaluates models on future data. Crucially, we introduce a strict forecasting pre-registration protocol: models must submit predictions before the ground-truth data physically exists. This makes test-set contamination impossible by design. The platform relies on a modular microservice architecture that harmonizes and structures data from different sources and orchestrates containerized model submissions. By enforcing a strict pre-registration protocol on live data streams, TS-Arena prevents information leakage offers a faster alternative to traditional static, infrequently repeated competitions (e.g. the M-Competitions). First empirical results derived from operating TS-Arena over one year of energy time series demonstrate that established TSFMs accumulate robust longitudinal scores over time, while the continuous nature of the benchmark simultaneously allows newcomers to demonstrate immediate competitiveness. TS-Arena provides the necessary infrastructure to assess the true generalization capabilities of modern forecasting models. The platform and corresponding code are available at https://ts-arena.live/.

AIP: Agent Identity Protocol for Verifiable Delegation Across MCP and A2A

AI agents increasingly call tools via the Model Context Protocol (MCP) and delegate to other agents via Agent-to-Agent (A2A), yet neither protocol verifies agent identity. A scan of approximately 2,000 MCP servers found all lacked authentication. In our survey, we did not identify a prior implemented protocol that jointly combines public-key verifiable delegation, holder-side attenuation, expressive chained policy, transport bindings across MCP/A2A/HTTP, and provenance-oriented completion records. We introduce Invocation-Bound Capability Tokens (IBCTs), a primitive that fuses identity, attenuated authorization, and provenance binding into a single append-only token chain. IBCTs operate in two wire formats: compact mode (a signed JWT for single-hop cases) and chained mode (a Biscuit token with Datalog policies for multi-hop delegation). We provide reference implementations in Python and Rust with full cross-language interoperability. Compact mode verification takes 0.049ms (Rust) and 0.189ms (Python), with 0.22ms overhead over no-auth in real MCP-over-HTTP deployment. In a real multi-agent deployment with Gemini 2.5 Flash, AIP adds 2.35ms of overhead (0.086% of total end-to-end latency). Adversarial evaluation across 600 attack attempts shows 100% rejection rate, with two attack categories (delegation depth violation and audit evasion through empty context) uniquely caught by AIP's chained delegation model that neither unsigned nor plain JWT deployments detect.

  • 1 authors
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Mar 24