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Nov 10

Decode Before You Hear: Speculative Listening for Chunk-Interleaved Full-Duplex Speech Language Models

Chunk-interleaved full-duplex speech language models listen and speak in fixed time chunks, and each chunk must be processed before the next one arrives. Their workload is asymmetric across chunks: listen chunks leave compute idle while awaiting audio, and speak and tool-call chunks require serial generation, which delays responses and tool calls. Using the idle compute for the next chunk requires decoding it before its audio arrives, under an assumed input. Taking silence as the assumed input and comparing the output with the output under real audio on four models, we observe two properties. First, the next audio chunk does not change the output in 95.3% of chunks. Second, 88% of changes begin at the first output token. Building on these properties, we propose Speculative Listening, a training-free, lossless framework for input-time self-speculative decoding. During idle time, the model drafts the next chunk under silence and, for changes at the first token, a second branch from the runner-up first token. It keeps all drafts in a cross-chunk hypothesis pool and verifies them when the audio arrives. On our eight-task benchmark TickTock-Bench, Speculative Listening speeds up speak chunks by 2.6-2.8x and tool-call chunks by up to 23.4x. On average, it reduces the decoding delay before a response starts by 73%, to 74-241 ms, close to the 200 ms gap between human turns, and the maximum lag behind real time by 94.4%.

Keyword Harnesses Fail Open: A Cheap Diagnostic Ladder for Tool-Use Claims in Small Language Models

Keyword-matching benchmarks can credit small models for tool use they never perform. We document such a false positive in a matched-architecture pair of Spanish security language models and propose a ladder of strict, cheap diagnostics. A 661.6M parameter model (approx. 65% code/technical text; no dedicated SFT) and a 1,109M model (web-heavy multi-phase curriculum; 6B-token tool-SFT) share decoder, tokenizer, and special tokens, scoring almost identically on lenient tool-use metrics (B4: 0.660 vs. 0.650). Verbatim-reproduction checks on training examples separate them completely: the 600M emits valid tool calls with generalized arguments on 6/6 examples; the 1B does so on 0/6 across checkpoints. A first-token probe localizes the 1B's failure to a missing prior (prob. 10^{-4}--10^{-5} on <|tool_call|>), which was erased by its web-heavy training phase. A targeted SFT recipe (diverse corpus, 5x higher learning rate, 2,202 steps, ~3.3 GPU-hours) repairs the 1B using three orders of magnitude fewer tokens than the failed phase. On all 269 corpus rows, valid emission rises from 0.100 to 0.959 (600M: 0.926). On 238 unseen prompts, the repaired 1B passes 0.536 vs. the 600M's 0.428 (p = 0.004). Embedding-drift checks show the repair did not move the trigger token's tied embedding (97.7% of the bf16 table remains bit-identical), meaning changes live in the surrounding network. Both models over-trigger, rarely answering negative prompts without a call (0.09 for 600M, 0.17 for repaired 1B). Factorial analyses confirm all repair configurations install the format, though suppression benefits from a diverse corpus remain a hypothesis due to seed sensitivity. This cheap diagnostic ladder costs minutes of CPU time and should gate tool-use claims on small models.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 30 3

An Early FIRST Reproduction and Improvements to Single-Token Decoding for Fast Listwise Reranking

Recent advances have demonstrated that large language models (LLMs) excel as listwise rerankers, but their high computational demands remain a barrier to widespread adoption. Further, the traditional language modeling (LM) objective is not ideally suited for reranking tasks. FIRST is a novel approach that addresses these challenges by integrating a learning-to-rank objective and leveraging the logits of only the first generated token, thereby significantly reducing inference latency compared to traditional LLM rerankers. In this study, we extend the evaluation of FIRST to the TREC Deep Learning datasets (DL19-22), validating its robustness across diverse domains. We investigate the influence of different first-stage retrievers on FIRST rerankers, observing diminishing returns and patterns consistent with traditional LLM rerankers. Through applying the FIRST objective to a broader range of backbone models, we achieve effectiveness surpassing the original implementation. Our experiments confirm that fast reranking with single-token logits does not compromise out-of-domain reranking quality. To better quantify the computational savings in the original study, we measure and compare latency to find a 21%-42% gain across various models and benchmarks. Moreover, while LM training implicitly improves zero-shot single-token reranking, our experiments also raise questions about whether LM pre-training may hinder subsequent fine-tuning with the FIRST objective. These findings pave the way for more efficient and effective listwise reranking in future applications.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 8, 2024

Loreley: Repository-Scale Program Evolution with Quality-Diversity Search

Sequential agent search accumulates changes from its current champion but discards alternative branches; independent proposals preserve breadth but restart from the root. Loreley instead retains complete repository states in a Quality-Diversity (QD) archive and samples them as parents or supplies them as context for later edits. Candidates are Git commits produced in isolated worktrees and judged by a project-supplied evaluator. We compare configured Loreley QD, sequential champion editing, and independent root proposals in a matched Zstandard experiment: seven paired blocks and 48 physical candidate jobs per policy and block (1,008 total), with root-only initialization and each policy's native concurrency. Validation selected a winner at each budget checkpoint; an agent-hidden holdout measured the fixed candidate. At 48 jobs, QD was 0.135% below Sequential Champion (95% BCa interval for the paired effect: -0.556% to +0.161%) and 0.320% above Independent Root (-0.082% to +0.686%). Neither contrast established a QD advantage; Sequential had the highest observed 48-job mean and median. Archive retention and later sampling did occur. Four of seven final QD winners had a non-incumbent state in their primary-parent ancestry under a retrospective one-incumbent rule applied only to the observed QD stream. Including inspiration edges raised the count to six, without showing that supplied context caused an edit. Three earlier capability campaigns produced generation-4, multi-file improvements in two Python libraries and a separate Zstandard revision. Loreley engaged the intended stepping-stone mechanism, but the controlled experiment did not show an endpoint benefit at 48 jobs.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 19

FinFIRST: Benchmarking Search Agents for Financial Information Retrieval, Sourcing and Traceability

Financial search is a highly demanding task for LLM agents, requiring not only a correct final answer but also temporally valid information retrieval, authoritative source selection, entity and period alignment, unit and definition consistency, and verifiable evidence for all conclusions. Existing benchmarks predominantly evaluate only the final answer, making it difficult to localize errors or assess whether an answer is well-founded. To address this gap, we introduce FinFIRST (Financial Information Retrieval, Sourcing and Traceability), the first financial benchmark to jointly evaluate answers and supporting evidence through atomic rubrics. FinFIRST comprises 123 expert-authored tasks spanning a graduated difficulty spectrum, constructed from aggregate patterns of real-world financial scenarios through an 18-field taxonomy, a six-axis coverage blueprint, a registry of 138 financial sources, contributions from over 50 finance experts, and a six-stage quality-control pipeline. Each task is accompanied by an evidence-grounded reference package decomposed into atomic criteria across three dimensions: raw-information acquisition, source verification, and computation and answer formation. We evaluate 15 model configurations under a unified tool setting. Claude-Opus-5 achieves the highest atomic score of 87.59%, while GPT-5.6-Sol attains the highest strict pass rate of 71.54%. Computation and answer formation consistently lag behind raw-information acquisition across systems. FinFIRST retains final-answer correctness as the primary objective while making the supporting research process measurable, verifiable, and diagnosable.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 20

From Discovery to Decision: Finite-Budget Recoverability in LLM Voting

Voting over multiple LLM responses is a common primitive in test-time scaling and ensemble inference. Collecting more responses can expand the candidate pool and increase the chance that a correct answer is discovered. Under a fixed call budget, a discovered answer still needs to accumulate enough support within the remaining calls to become the final plurality winner, creating a discovery-to-decision gap. In this work, we characterize this gap through the realized vote state and remaining call budget. We derive a sharp recoverability threshold and show that, as sampling proceeds, the observed candidate set can only expand while the set of reachable endpoint winners can only contract, inducing a candidate-level conversion window. Under a specified iid response law, the same state yields exact finite-horizon endpoint probabilities. We further show that merging wrong-answer identities preserves single-call correctness and cannot improve plurality accuracy, and that the effect of redistributing wrong-answer probability depends on the realized vote state. Singleton reachability yields a gold-free exact locking certificate. For a known answer universe, its first trigger is the earliest prefix at which all admissible continuations yield the same fixed-budget output. Empirically, most discovered-but-unselected correct answers lose reachability only after discovery. In a controlled Word16 study, input permutation improves raw-plurality accuracy by 21.1 points with essentially unchanged single-call correctness. Exact locking saves 28-30% of calls at a 16-call budget while preserving every fixed-budget output.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 30

Agora: Git as Shared Memory for Collective AutoResearch

Autonomous research loops such as AutoResearch show that one coding agent can improve a training setup unattended. Run several of them and each session starts from scratch, so more agents tend to mean more duplicated search rather than more discovery. Agora is a shared memory for such agents: research is recorded as an append-only directed acyclic graph (DAG) stored in Git, so that every claim is a commit anyone can check out and rerun. Each result, insight, hypothesis, verification, and report is an immutable commit whose parent edges say what it builds on; a derived index exposes the frontier, the neglected branches, and the verification status of each claim, and a diversity-aware selection rule keeps the community from collapsing onto one leader. We describe the system and report its first sustained use: a run of nearly 12 days in which 13 language-model workers, with no assigned tasks and no central planner, worked on a weight-transfer problem. Given 141 pretrained donor models and a frozen 119.6M-parameter attention-SSM hybrid whose dimensions match no donor, the workers had to initialize the target without training data or gradient updates. They published 1,703 contributions and drove the evaluator from 3.39 to 1.899 bits per byte, closing 62% of the gap to a trained GPT-2 124M. The winning recipe compresses donor next-token statistics into the target's embedding and output head, then adds a short-range context signal through sparse edits to attention, feed-forward, and state-space blocks. Its 145-commit ancestry spans 15 accounts, and 165 independent reproductions were posted, none of which failed. We describe the single mid-run human intervention that pulled the community out of a monoculture, what the trace does and does not establish, and the controlled comparison that would settle whether shared research state improves discovery per unit of compute.

nvidia NVIDIA
·
Sep 15 3

Results and Retrospective Analysis of the CODS 2025 AssetOpsBench Challenge

Competition retrospectives are useful when they explain what a leaderboard measured, how hidden evaluation changed conclusions, and which design patterns were rewarded. We revisit the CODS 2025 challenge, a privacy-aware Codabench competition on industrial multi-agent orchestration built on . We combine final rank sheets, a 300-submission server log, 149-team registrations, best-submission exports, the organizer winners report, the companion system paper, and verified planning-track source trees. Five results stand out. First, the public planning leaderboard saturates at 72.73\%, and richer prompts do not improve that peak. Second, hidden evaluation changes the story: public and private scores correlate moderately in planning (r{=}0.69) but negatively in execution (r{=}{-}0.13), with several 45.45\% public execution systems reaching 63.64\% on the hidden set. Third, the term is numerically almost inert in the official composite -- combined on a 0--1 scale with 0--100 percentage scores, it contributes at most 0.05 points per track, and rescaling would swap the top two teams. Fourth, the competition is operationally account-based but substantively team-based: 149 registered teams reduce to 24 with non-zero public scores and 11 fully ranked, while 52.3\% of deduplicated registrations list multiple usernames. Fifth, successful execution methods mostly improve guardrails -- response selection, contamination cleanup, fallback, and context control -- rather than novel agent architectures. These findings identify which behaviors the evaluation rewarded, and motivate scale-aware composites, skill-level diagnostics, and versioned artifact release.

ibm-research IBM Research
·
May 7 2

Beyond Parallel Blindness: Information Floors and Model Gaps in Block Drafting

Block drafters propose several tokens in one forward pass, before earlier target tokens are realised. Their rejection mixes two losses: missing within-block path information and imperfect modelling of observable information. Accepted length cannot distinguish them. We separate the two with an information floor, the minimum expected rejection at a specified conditioning order; rejection above this floor is the model gap. Estimating both from target rollouts across four domains, four open-weight targets, and a frontier API target yields three findings. First, the all-parallel floor reaches 0.286 at the final slot on Qwen3-4B, limiting even the best proposal to 71% per-slot acceptance. Second, one realised token removes 86--100% of this floor, a locality also recovered by an independent mutual-information analysis. Third, current drafters remain far above their floors: the final-slot model gap accounts for 43--64% of DFlash rejection and 85--92% of DSpark's oracle-conditioned rejection. These findings separate the value of short-range conditioning from proposal quality. Guided by this distinction, we replace a context-independent predecessor correction with a prefix-attention head that reads committed context conditional on the predecessor. With supporting backbone components, the resulting Qwen3-4B drafter improves mean serving accepted length by 3.83% over the released DSpark checkpoint across nine tasks, without increasing the conditioning order.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 17

CacheRepair: Learning to Repair Cross-Chunk Context in RAG for KV Cache Fusion

Multi-document retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) requires a language model to process multiple retrieved text chunks before answering a question. Precomputing each chunk's KV cache independently and concatenating the caches when the chunks are retrieved can accelerate this step. However, the assembled cache lacks cross-chunk attention information, reducing answer quality. Selective recomputation methods recover the missing cross-chunk context by rerunning the target LLM on selected tokens, incurring substantial online computation. We introduce CacheRepair, a lightweight network that learns the difference between independently computed KV caches and those produced by processing the chunks together. The network combines compressed KV features with token embeddings and uses attention that is bidirectional within each chunk and flows from earlier to later chunks. Each repair block receives the compressed cache features, and the predicted residual is added to every document token's cache. Each repair network is trained for a specific frozen target LLM on a generic retrieval corpus and reused across downstream datasets. Our analysis shows that repair reduces KV errors both near chunk boundaries and throughout chunk interiors. Evaluation across three target LLMs and four downstream datasets places CacheRepair on the measured answer-quality-latency Pareto frontier in eleven of twelve model-dataset combinations. Reported time to first token (TTFT) includes online cache transfer and repair. Across all twelve combinations, the largest repairers achieve 1.69-4.61times speedups in median TTFT over full prefill and improve mean F1 by 2.1-26.1 percentage points over direct cache reuse.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 27

First Finish Search: Efficient Test-Time Scaling in Large Language Models

Test-time scaling (TTS), which involves dynamic allocation of compute during inference, offers a promising way to improve reasoning in large language models. While existing TTS methods work well, they often rely on long decoding paths or require a large number of samples to be generated, increasing the token usage and inference latency. We observe the surprising fact that for reasoning tasks, shorter traces are much more likely to be correct than longer ones. Motivated by this, we introduce First Finish Search (FFS), a training-free parallel decoding strategy that launches n independent samples and returns as soon as any one completes. We evaluate FFS alongside simple decoding, beam search, majority voting, and budget forcing on four reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, QwQ-32B and Phi-4-Reasoning-Plus) and across four datasets (AIME24, AIME25-I, AIME25-II and GPQA Diamond). With DeepSeek-R1, FFS achieves 82.23% accuracy on the AIME datasets, a 15% improvement over DeepSeek-R1's standalone accuracy, nearly matching OpenAI's o4-mini performance. Our theoretical analysis explains why stopping at the shortest trace is likely to yield a correct answer and identifies the conditions under which early stopping may be suboptimal. The elegance and simplicity of FFS demonstrate that straightforward TTS strategies can perform remarkably well, revealing the untapped potential of simple approaches at inference time.

  • 3 authors
·
May 23, 2025 2

Think Again or Think Longer? Selective Verification for Budget-Aware Reasoning

Test-time reasoning is increasingly used as a serving-time control knob, but extra reasoning is not uniformly valuable: it can repair failed attempts, waste compute on already-correct answers, or introduce harmful answer changes. We study this as a deployment allocation problem rather than a new-verifier problem. We introduce \sevra, Selective Verification for Reasoning Allocation, a serving-layer controller that decides whether to preserve a frozen solver's initial answer or invoke active verification. Using a frozen Qwen3-4B solver, we log intervention outcomes and train recoverability-aware gates from serving-visible attempt state. On \mathfive, selective verification reaches 76.3\% accuracy, compared with 75.5\% for always verifying, while reducing post-generation tokens by 26.8\% and harmful flips from 2.2\% to 1.0\%. However, an 8,192-token initial solve reaches 76.0\% accuracy with 28\% fewer total model tokens, showing that selective recovery is useful but not the best tested cost frontier. In frozen transfer to \gsm, the selective policy verifies only 3.0\% of examples, improves accuracy from 93.4\% to 94.5\%, and reduces verification tokens by 91.2\% relative to always verifying; again, a longer initial solve matches its accuracy with fewer realized tokens. On CommonsenseQA, always-on verification hurts, while Self-Consistency@5 improves accuracy at about five times the realized token cost. The resulting deployment rule is: tune the initial budget first, then use selective recovery when explicit checks, bounded retries, auditability, or regression-risk control matter.

OoO-Spec: Out-of-Order Semantic Speculation for Fast Tool Calling

LLMs generate tool calls token by token, even though the function choice and argument values can often be predicted in parallel from the request and tool schema. ToolSpec reduces this cost by drafting schema tokens and retrieving earlier calls, but cannot propose request-specific values absent from either source. We present OoO-Spec, which computes these missing semantics out of order. At request arrival, a Qwen3-0.6B sidecar predicts the function choice and all schema-defined argument slots in one parallel request-level wave while the target begins ToolSpec decoding. The runtime joins the slot values, renders the resulting call as text, and exposes it to subsequent candidate-construction rounds. The target polls without blocking, re-tokenizes a ready hint with its own tokenizer, and remains the sole verifier and commit authority. The sidecar is trained once with LoRA on Qwen2.5-32B teacher traces and used unchanged across Qwen2.5, Qwen3, and Llama targets, without target-specific drafter training. Across seven fully ranked targets and three benchmarks under greedy batch-one decoding, OoO-Spec is fastest among all evaluated methods in all 21 target-benchmark cells, reaching 2.46x-5.34x over autoregressive decoding with an unweighted mean of 3.89x, versus 2.95x for ToolSpec. It also outperforms every evaluated released learned drafter in each comparable cell. Across Qwen3-4B, 8B, 14B, and 32B targets, the same sidecar improves on ToolSpec by 34.1% on average. Its compact semantic payload averages 85 bytes per request excluding protocol metadata, supporting effective split-GPU overlap.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 31

Order-agnostic Identifier for Large Language Model-based Generative Recommendation

Leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for generative recommendation has attracted significant research interest, where item tokenization is a critical step. It involves assigning item identifiers for LLMs to encode user history and generate the next item. Existing approaches leverage either token-sequence identifiers, representing items as discrete token sequences, or single-token identifiers, using ID or semantic embeddings. Token-sequence identifiers face issues such as the local optima problem in beam search and low generation efficiency due to step-by-step generation. In contrast, single-token identifiers fail to capture rich semantics or encode Collaborative Filtering (CF) information, resulting in suboptimal performance. To address these issues, we propose two fundamental principles for item identifier design: 1) integrating both CF and semantic information to fully capture multi-dimensional item information, and 2) designing order-agnostic identifiers without token dependency, mitigating the local optima issue and achieving simultaneous generation for generation efficiency. Accordingly, we introduce a novel set identifier paradigm for LLM-based generative recommendation, representing each item as a set of order-agnostic tokens. To implement this paradigm, we propose SETRec, which leverages CF and semantic tokenizers to obtain order-agnostic multi-dimensional tokens. To eliminate token dependency, SETRec uses a sparse attention mask for user history encoding and a query-guided generation mechanism for simultaneous token generation. We instantiate SETRec on T5 and Qwen (from 1.5B to 7B). Extensive experiments demonstrate its effectiveness under various scenarios (e.g., full ranking, warm- and cold-start ranking, and various item popularity groups). Moreover, results validate SETRec's superior efficiency and show promising scalability on cold-start items as model sizes increase.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 15, 2025

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

ByteDance-Seed ByteDance Seed
·
Dec 24, 2025 2

ChatGPT4PCG 2 Competition: Prompt Engineering for Science Birds Level Generation

This paper presents the second ChatGPT4PCG competition at the 2024 IEEE Conference on Games. In this edition of the competition, we follow the first edition, but make several improvements and changes. We introduce a new evaluation metric along with allowing a more flexible format for participants' submissions and making several improvements to the evaluation pipeline. Continuing from the first edition, we aim to foster and explore the realm of prompt engineering (PE) for procedural content generation (PCG). While the first competition saw success, it was hindered by various limitations; we aim to mitigate these limitations in this edition. We introduce diversity as a new metric to discourage submissions aimed at producing repetitive structures. Furthermore, we allow submission of a Python program instead of a prompt text file for greater flexibility in implementing advanced PE approaches, which may require control flow, including conditions and iterations. We also make several improvements to the evaluation pipeline with a better classifier for similarity evaluation and better-performing function signatures. We thoroughly evaluate the effectiveness of the new metric and the improved classifier. Additionally, we perform an ablation study to select a function signature to instruct ChatGPT for level generation. Finally, we provide implementation examples of various PE techniques in Python and evaluate their preliminary performance. We hope this competition serves as a resource and platform for learning about PE and PCG in general.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 4, 2024

Pitwall: Faithful Natural-Language Race-Strategy Briefings from a Calibrated Real-Time Monte Carlo Engine

Live sports commentary is grounded generation under a deadline: statements concern real, named athletes, the grounding state changes every few seconds, and no reference text exists at generation time. We present Pitwall, a production system that generates natural-language Formula 1 strategy briefings in English, Spanish, and Portuguese, treating faithfulness as an architectural property rather than an aspiration: every published sentence is decomposed into typed factual claims (positions, gaps, tyres, pace, overtakes, race control) and each claim is verified against the probabilistic race state that prompted it. The same verifier gates the fine-tuning data: of 3,045 model-written targets, only the 81.9% whose every claim is state-supported are retained, the rest falling back to a provably faithful template, so the generator never sees an ungrounded target. Verification is meaningful because of the grounding substrate: a vectorized Monte Carlo engine (N=2,000 per-lap race continuations) calibrated on 126 races (2018-2024) and validated on fully held-out 2025-2026 seasons (winner-in-top-3 90.3% over 155 backtests; held-out Brier 0.0745). A recurring finding spans both halves of the system: virtues trade off and must be gated separately. In simulation, calibration-optimal is not decision-optimal; in generation, fine-tuning on richer targets buys vividness that collapses into hallucination when the grounding state is sparse -- a failure a four-base replication traces to base-model instruction adherence, not scale, and that sparse-context auditing removes from the production model. End-to-end operation -- live timing to verified trilingual briefings -- was confirmed at two consecutive live Grands Prix (Austria and Britain, 2026); at Silverstone a timestamped probability trace, committed to disk before the outcome was known, locked onto the eventual winner ten laps before the flag.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 6

StopLoss: Teaching Agents to Predict Failure and Stop Early

Coding agents keep working on runs that will fail verification, and asking a frontier model to watch for this is expensive in its own right. We introduce StopLoss, a small external monitor that learns failure recognition from completed trajectories and their verifier outcomes. The name is inspired by the stop-loss order in finance: StopLoss ends a run early when the run is likely to fail, which saves resources. Final outcomes label earlier local windows, so a fine-tuned language model can score the most recent tool steps in a single forward pass, and a threshold calibrated on successful runs turns that score into an abort decision without changing the executor. Trained on GPT-family SWE-rebench trajectories and evaluated on SWE-bench Verified and a SWE-bench Pro subset with GPT and Claude executors, StopLoss is compared against six general-purpose judges reading identical windows. Outcome supervision lifts failure prediction from near chance to a useful signal at the first check, at one to two orders of magnitude lower cost per check than any tested judge. This translates into savings: relative to completing every task, StopLoss lowers cost per retained solve by 4.5\% on Verified while preserving 99\% of successful runs, and by up to 31\% on the costlier Pro subset, reaching 48\% with a Qwen3-8B backbone, and in all four settings its cost per retained solve is below that of every judge policy. Outcome-trained small monitors can make failure recognition cheap enough for early stopping to pay for itself.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 17 2

Rare, Relevant, and Still Wrong: How Memory Fails LLM Group Decisions

When an LLM group's discussion is compressed into a short memory for a final decision maker, what should the memory keep? Two natural heuristics keep the rarest claims or the claims relevant to the decision criteria. On hidden-profile tasks both look attractive, because how widely a fact is held is confounded with whether it helps. We introduce CrossProfile, a diagnostic benchmark of 60 templates with automatically verified answer keys, in which the ownership of supporting, decoy, and irrelevant facts is crossed while their text is held fixed (480 tasks). Across Qwen2.5-7B, Llama-3.1-8B, and two DeepSeek models, both heuristics fail in predictable places. Selecting by relevance readmits decoys, because decoys are on topic: even a perfect relevance filter loses 23 to 31 points to rarest-first selection in the classic hidden-profile configuration. Rarest-first selection is no better than random selection on average and wins only where the rare facts happen to be the useful ones. In both cases accuracy follows the balance of evidence the memory keeps, not the policy that kept it. The decision model adds a third failure, a form of social proof: it gives extra weight to facts attributed to many agents. Removing the attribution tags, or reassigning them at random with line order fixed, raises accuracy in the classic configuration by 13 to 24 points. In natural discussions the evidence is lost before any memory acts: the complete transcript yields lower accuracy than no notes at all.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 26 2