Daily Papers

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

Recent advances such as self-consistency and test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) improve the reliability of large language models (LLMs) without additional supervision, yet their underlying mechanisms and statistical guarantees remain poorly understood. We present a unified framework for certifiable inference in LLMs, showing that majority voting provides a statistical certificate of self-consistency: under mild assumptions, the aggregated answer coincides with the mode of the model's terminal distribution with high probability. We derive finite-sample and anytime-valid concentration bounds that quantify this confidence, and introduce the Martingale Majority Certificate (MMC), a sequential stopping rule that adaptively determines when sufficient samples have been drawn. We further prove that label-free post-training methods such as TTRL implicitly sharpen the answer distribution by exponentially tilting it toward its mode, thereby reducing the number of samples required for certification. Building on this insight, we propose new post-training objectives that explicitly optimise this trade-off between sharpness and bias. Together, these results explain and connect two central test-time scaling strategies, self-consistency and TTRL, within a single statistical framework for label-free, certifiable reliability in reasoning LLMs.

General large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have shown remarkable success, but it has also raised concerns among people about the misuse of AI-generated texts. Therefore, an important question is how to detect whether the texts are generated by ChatGPT or by humans. Existing detectors are built on the assumption that there is a distribution gap between human-generated and AI-generated texts. These gaps are typically identified using statistical information or classifiers. In contrast to prior research methods, we find that large language models such as ChatGPT exhibit strong self-consistency in text generation and continuation. Self-consistency capitalizes on the intuition that AI-generated texts can still be reasoned with by large language models using the same logical reasoning when portions of the texts are masked, which differs from human-generated texts. Using this observation, we subsequently proposed a new method for AI-generated texts detection based on self-consistency with masked predictions to determine whether a text is generated by LLMs. This method, which we call DetectGPT-SC. We conducted a series of experiments to evaluate the performance of DetectGPT-SC. In these experiments, we employed various mask scheme, zero-shot, and simple prompt for completing masked texts and self-consistency predictions. The results indicate that DetectGPT-SC outperforms the current state-of-the-art across different tasks.

Recently, self-evolving large multimodal models (LMMs) have received attention for improving visual reasoning in a purely unsupervised setting. However, multi-role self-play and self-consistency reward schemes in existing self-evolving LMMs optimize answer agreement without ensuring the decoder attends to visual content, relying instead on statistical language priors to produce self consistent outputs. This leads to a persistent failure mode we term visual under-conditioning, where the decoder relies on language priors rather than the image during generation, manifesting as insufficient attention to visual tokens. As a result, current self-evolving LMMs struggle on vision--language understanding tasks such as image captioning and visual question answering. To address this, we propose VISE (Visual Invariance Self-Evolution), a purely unsupervised self-evolving framework that directly regularizes the model's visual conditioning policy through two complementary invariance-based rewards: a geometric invariance reward that enforces spatial consistency under known transformations, and a semantic invariance reward that penalizes evidence-agnostic generation by requiring the model to recognize the absence of evidence when predicted regions are perturbed. VISE operates within a single model without specialist roles, external reward models, or annotations, and is trained on raw unlabeled images. Experiments on 18 benchmarks demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. Using Qwen3-VL-2B as the base model, VISE achieves gains of +16.85 CIDEr on COCO and +19.66 CIDEr on TextCaps, reduces object hallucination by 5.0 Chair-I points, and generalizes across four model families and scales. Our code and models are available at https://mbzuai-oryx.github.io/VISE

Large language models (LLMs) are expected to respond accurately but often exhibit deficient reasoning or generate hallucinatory content. To address these, studies prefixed with ``Self-'' such as Self-Consistency, Self-Improve, and Self-Refine have been initiated. They share a commonality: involving LLMs evaluating and updating itself to mitigate the issues. Nonetheless, these efforts lack a unified perspective on summarization, as existing surveys predominantly focus on categorization without examining the motivations behind these works. In this paper, we summarize a theoretical framework, termed Internal Consistency, which offers unified explanations for phenomena such as the lack of reasoning and the presence of hallucinations. Internal Consistency assesses the coherence among LLMs' latent layer, decoding layer, and response layer based on sampling methodologies. Expanding upon the Internal Consistency framework, we introduce a streamlined yet effective theoretical framework capable of mining Internal Consistency, named Self-Feedback. The Self-Feedback framework consists of two modules: Self-Evaluation and Self-Update. This framework has been employed in numerous studies. We systematically classify these studies by tasks and lines of work; summarize relevant evaluation methods and benchmarks; and delve into the concern, ``Does Self-Feedback Really Work?'' We propose several critical viewpoints, including the ``Hourglass Evolution of Internal Consistency'', ``Consistency Is (Almost) Correctness'' hypothesis, and ``The Paradox of Latent and Explicit Reasoning''. Furthermore, we outline promising directions for future research. We have open-sourced the experimental code, reference list, and statistical data, available at https://github.com/IAAR-Shanghai/ICSFSurvey.

Contrastive representation learning (CRL) underpins many modern foundation models. Despite recent theoretical progress, existing analyses suffer from several key limitations: (i) the statistical consistency of CRL remains poorly understood; (ii) available generalization bounds deteriorate as the number of negative samples increases, contradicting the empirical benefits of large negative sets; and (iii) the retrieval performance of CRL has received limited theoretical attention. In this paper, we develop a unified statistical learning theory for CRL. For downstream tasks, we evaluate retrieval quality using an AUC-type population criterion and show that the contrastive loss is statistically consistent with optimal ranking. We further establish a calibration-style inequality that quantitatively relates excess contrastive risk to excess retrieval suboptimality. For upstream training, we study both supervised and self-supervised contrastive objectives and derive generalization bounds of order O(1/m + 1/n) and O(1/m + 1/n), respectively, where m denotes the number of negative samples and n the number of anchor points. These bounds not only explain the empirical advantages of large negative sets but also reveal an explicit trade-off between m and n. Extensive experiments on large-scale vision--language models corroborate our theoretical predictions.

Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It involves generating multiple responses, or samples from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent answer. This procedure can naturally be viewed as a majority vote or empirical mode estimation. Despite its effectiveness, SC is prohibitively expensive at scale when naively applied to datasets, and it lacks a unified theoretical treatment of sample efficiency and scaling behavior. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of SC's scaling behavior and its variants, drawing on mode estimation and voting theory. We derive and empirically validate power law scaling for self-consistency across datasets, and analyze the sample efficiency for fixed-allocation and dynamic-allocation sampling schemes. From these insights, we introduce Blend-ASC, a novel variant of self-consistency that dynamically allocates samples to questions during inference, achieving state-of-the-art sample efficiency. Our approach uses 6.8x fewer samples than vanilla SC on average, outperforming both fixed- and dynamic-allocation SC baselines, thereby demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of efficiency. In contrast to existing variants, Blend-ASC is hyperparameter-free and can fit an arbitrary sample budget, ensuring it can be easily applied to any self-consistency application.

Self-alignment, whereby models learn to improve themselves without human annotation, is a rapidly growing research area. However, existing techniques often fail to improve complex reasoning tasks due to the difficulty of assigning correct rewards. An orthogonal approach that is known to improve correctness is self-consistency, a method applied at inference time based on multiple sampling in order to find the most consistent answer. In this work, we extend the self-consistency concept to help train models. We thus introduce self-consistency preference optimization (ScPO), which iteratively trains consistent answers to be preferred over inconsistent ones on unsupervised new problems. We show ScPO leads to large improvements over conventional reward model training on reasoning tasks such as GSM8K and MATH, closing the gap with supervised training with gold answers or preferences, and that combining ScPO with standard supervised learning improves results even further. On ZebraLogic, ScPO finetunes Llama-3 8B to be superior to Llama-3 70B, Gemma-2 27B, and Claude-3 Haiku.

Self-consistency (SC), a widely used decoding strategy for chain-of-thought reasoning, shows significant gains across various multi-step reasoning tasks but comes with a high cost due to multiple sampling with the preset size. Its variants, Adaptive self-consistency (ASC) and Early-stopping self-consistency (ESC), dynamically adjust the number of samples based on the posterior distribution of a set of pre-samples, reducing the cost of SC with minimal impact on performance. Both methods, however, do not exploit the prior information about question difficulty. It often results in unnecessary repeated sampling for easy questions that could be accurately answered with just one attempt, wasting resources. To tackle this problem, we propose Difficulty-Adaptive Self-Consistency (DSC), which leverages the difficulty information from both prior and posterior perspectives to adaptively allocate inference resources, further reducing the cost of SC. To demonstrate the effectiveness of DSC, we conduct extensive experiments on three popular categories of reasoning tasks: arithmetic, commonsense and symbolic reasoning on six benchmarks. The empirical results show that DSC consistently surpasses the strong baseline ASC and ESC in terms of costs by a significant margin, while attaining comparable performances.

In this paper, we present a novel approach for improving the quality and consistency of generated outputs from large-scale pre-trained language models (LLMs). Self-consistency has emerged as an effective approach for prompts with fixed answers, selecting the answer with the highest number of votes. In this paper, we introduce a generalized framework for self-consistency that extends its applicability beyond problems that have fixed-answer answers. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our approach consistently recovers the optimal or near-optimal generation from a set of candidates. We also propose lightweight parameter-free similarity functions that show significant and consistent improvements across code generation, autoformalization, and summarization tasks, even without access to token log probabilities. Our method incurs minimal computational overhead, requiring no auxiliary reranker models or modifications to the existing model.

Although diffusion models exhibit impressive generative capabilities, existing methods for stylized image generation based on these models often require textual inversion or fine-tuning with style images, which is time-consuming and limits the practical applicability of large-scale diffusion models. To address these challenges, we propose a novel stylized image generation method leveraging a pre-trained large-scale diffusion model without requiring fine-tuning or any additional optimization, termed as OmniPainter. Specifically, we exploit the self-consistency property of latent consistency models to extract the representative style statistics from reference style images to guide the stylization process. Additionally, we then introduce the norm mixture of self-attention, which enables the model to query the most relevant style patterns from these statistics for the intermediate output content features. This mechanism also ensures that the stylized results align closely with the distribution of the reference style images. Our qualitative and quantitative experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Probabilistic decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs) often yields inconsistent outputs, particularly on complex or long-form questions. Self-Consistency (SC) mitigates this for short-form QA by majority voting over exact strings, whereas Universal Self-Consistency (USC) and Weighted Unigram Consistency Score (WUCS) extend to long-form responses but lose accuracy on short-form benchmarks. We introduce Latent Self-Consistency (LSC), which selects the most semantically consistent response using learnable token embeddings. LSC's lightweight forward processing of summary tokens only introduces negligible runtime overhead (at most 0.9%) on top of standard decoding of the base LLM, and requires no changes to the model architecture. Across 6 short-form and 5 long-form reasoning benchmarks (e.g., MATH, MMLU, TruthfulQA), LSC surpasses SC, USC, and WUCS on both short-form and long-form on average performance, while adding negligible computational overhead on vanilla inference. These results position LSC as a reliable consistency-selection method that works effectively across various answer formats. Additionally, LSC provides well-calibrated confidence estimates, maintaining low expected calibration error across both answer formats.

A popular approach for improving the correctness of output from large language models (LLMs) is Self-Consistency - poll the LLM multiple times and output the most frequent solution. Existing Self-Consistency techniques always draw a constant number of samples per question, where a better approach will be to non-uniformly distribute the available budget based on the amount of agreement in the samples drawn so far. In response, we introduce Adaptive-Consistency, a cost-efficient, model-agnostic technique that dynamically adjusts the number of samples per question using a lightweight stopping criterion. Our experiments over 13 datasets and two LLMs demonstrate that Adaptive-Consistency reduces sample budget by up to 6.0 times with an average accuracy drop of less than 0.1%.

Self-consistency (SC), leveraging multiple samples from LLMs, shows significant gains on various reasoning tasks but struggles with free-form generation due to the difficulty of aggregating answers. Its variants, UCS and USC, rely on sample selection or voting mechanisms to improve output quality. These methods, however, face limitations due to their inability to fully utilize the nuanced consensus knowledge present within multiple candidate samples, often resulting in suboptimal outputs. We propose Fine-Grained Self-Consistency (FSC) to addresses these limitations by extracting and integrating segment-level commonalities from candidate samples, enhancing the performance of LLMs both in open-ended and reasoning tasks. Based on this, we present two additional strategies: candidate filtering, which enhances overall quality by identifying highly similar candidate sets, and merging, which reduces input token requirements by combining similar samples. The effectiveness of FSC is demonstrated through extensive experiments on various tasks, including summarization, code generation, and mathematical reasoning, using GPT-3.5-turbo and GPT-4. The results indicate significant improvements over baseline methods, showcasing the potential of FSC to optimize output quality by effectively synthesizing fine-grained consensus knowledge from multiple samples.

Recently, Test-Time Scaling (TTS) has gained increasing attention for improving LLM reasoning performance at test time without retraining the model. A notable TTS technique is Self-Consistency (SC), which generates multiple reasoning chains in parallel and selects the final answer via majority voting. While effective, the order-of-magnitude computational overhead limits its broad deployment. Prior attempts to accelerate SC mainly rely on model-based confidence scores or heuristics with limited empirical support. For the first time, we theoretically and empirically analyze the inefficiencies of SC and reveal actionable opportunities for improvement. Building on these insights, we propose Slim-SC, a step-wise pruning strategy that identifies and removes redundant chains using inter-chain similarity at the thought level. Experiments on three STEM reasoning datasets and two recent LLM architectures show that Slim-SC reduces inference latency and KVC usage by up to 45% and 26%, respectively, with R1-Distill, while maintaining or improving accuracy, thus offering a simple yet efficient TTS alternative for SC.

Large Language Models often improve accuracy on reasoning tasks by sampling multiple Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces and aggregating them with majority voting (MV), a test-time technique called self-consistency. When we truncate a CoT partway through and regenerate the remainder, we observe that traces with correct answers reproduce their original answer more often than traces with wrong answers. We use this difference as a reliability signal, prefix consistency, that weights each candidate answer by how often it reappears under regeneration. It requires no access to token log-probabilities or self-rating prompts. Across five reasoning models and four math and science benchmarks, prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor in most settings, and reweighting votes by it reaches Standard MV plateau accuracy at up to 21x fewer tokens (median 4.6x). Our code is available at https://github.com/naoto-iwase/prefix-consistency.

Test-time scaling can improve model performance by aggregating stochastic reasoning trajectories. However, achieving sample-efficient test-time self-consistency under a limited budget remains an open challenge. We introduce PETS (Principled and Efficient Test-TimeSelf-Consistency), which initiates a principled study of trajectory allocation through an optimization framework. Central to our approach is the self-consistency rate, a new measure defined as agreement with the infinite-budget majority vote. This formulation makes sample-efficient test-time allocation theoretically grounded and amenable to rigorous analysis. We study both offline and online settings. In the offline regime, where all questions are known in advance, we connect trajectory allocation to crowdsourcing, a classic and well-developed area, by modeling reasoning traces as workers. This perspective allows us to leverage rich existing theory, yielding theoretical guarantees and an efficient majority-voting-based allocation algorithm. In the online streaming regime, where questions arrive sequentially and allocations must be made on the fly, we propose a novel method inspired by the offline framework. Our approach adapts budgets to question difficulty while preserving strong theoretical guarantees and computational efficiency. Experiments show that PETS consistently outperforms uniform allocation. On GPQA, PETS achieves perfect self-consistency in both settings while reducing the sampling budget by up to 75% (offline) and 55% (online) relative to uniform allocation. Code is available at https://github.com/ZDCSlab/PETS.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Self-consistency with chain-of-thought prompting (CoT) has demonstrated remarkable performance gains on various challenging tasks, by utilizing multiple reasoning paths sampled from large language models (LLMs). However, self-consistency relies on the answer extraction process to aggregate multiple solutions, which is not applicable to free-form answers. In this work, we propose Universal Self-Consistency (USC), which leverages LLMs themselves to select the most consistent answer among multiple candidates. We evaluate USC on a variety of benchmarks, including mathematical reasoning, code generation, long-context summarization, and open-ended question answering. On open-ended generation tasks where the original self-consistency method is not applicable, USC effectively utilizes multiple samples and improves the performance. For mathematical reasoning, USC matches the standard self-consistency performance without requiring the answer formats to be similar. Finally, without access to execution results, USC also matches the execution-based voting performance on code generation.

Self-consistency improves large language models by sampling multiple reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer, but majority voting often fails to recover correct answers that are already present among the samples. We address this limitation with Ranking-Improved Self-Consistency (RISC), which reformulates answer selection in self-consistency as a ranking problem. Instead of relying on a single uncertainty or confidence signal, RISC uses a lightweight LambdaRank model to score candidate answers with five carefully designed features that capture answer frequency, semantic centrality, and reasoning-trace consistency. We evaluate RISC on three datasets under a range of test-time budgets. Across datasets, RISC consistently achieves a better accuracy-efficiency trade-off than standard self-consistency and strong baselines, with particularly large gains on question answering benchmarks. Further analysis shows that the proposed features are individually useful and, more importantly, complementary, highlighting the value of learning to combine multiple informative signals for test-time answer selection.

Self-consistency (SC) has been a widely used decoding strategy for chain-of-thought reasoning. Despite bringing significant performance improvements across a variety of multi-step reasoning tasks, it is a high-cost method that requires multiple sampling with the preset size. In this paper, we propose a simple and scalable sampling process, Early-Stopping Self-Consistency (ESC), to greatly reduce the cost of SC without sacrificing performance. On this basis, one control scheme for ESC is further derivated to dynamically choose the performance-cost balance for different tasks and models. To demonstrate ESC's effectiveness, we conducted extensive experiments on three popular categories of reasoning tasks: arithmetic, commonsense and symbolic reasoning over language models with varying scales. The empirical results show that ESC reduces the average number of sampling of chain-of-thought reasoning by a significant margin on six benchmarks, including MATH (-33.8%), GSM8K (-80.1%), StrategyQA (-76.8%), CommonsenseQA (-78.5%), Coin Flip (-84.2%) and Last Letters (-67.4%), while attaining comparable performances.

A standard technique for scaling inference-time reasoning is Self-Consistency, whereby multiple candidate answers are sampled from an LLM and the most common answer is selected. More recently, it has been shown that weighted majority voting (e.g. Confidence-Informed Self Consistency (CISC)), which assigns a confidence value to each candidate answer and chooses the answer with the largest accumulated score, tends to be more accurate on a wide range of popular benchmarks. In practice, weighted majority voting necessitates calling a critic LLM on each candidate's reasoning trace to produce the answer's confidence score. This secondary series of LLM calls greatly increases the overhead and cost of weighted majority voting, despite its potential performance benefits. To reduce this expense, we propose VecCISC, a lightweight, adaptive framework that uses a measure of semantic similarity to filter reasoning traces that are semantically equivalent to others, degenerate, or hallucinated, thus decreasing the number of candidate answers that must be evaluated by the critic. To ensure adequate experimental thoroughness, we evaluate VecCISC on five challenging, widely-adopted datasets spanning the domains of mathematics, chemistry, biology, commonsense reasoning, and the humanities. Our results demonstrate that VecCISC reduces the total token usage by 47%, while maintaining or exceeding the accuracy of CISC.

Self-consistency-based approaches, which involve repeatedly sampling multiple outputs and selecting the most consistent one as the final response, prove to be remarkably effective in improving the factual accuracy of large language models. Nonetheless, existing methods usually have strict constraints on the task format, largely limiting their applicability. In this paper, we present Integrative Decoding (ID), to unlock the potential of self-consistency in open-ended generation tasks. ID operates by constructing a set of inputs, each prepended with a previously sampled response, and then processes them concurrently, with the next token being selected by aggregating of all their corresponding predictions at each decoding step. In essence, this simple approach implicitly incorporates self-consistency in the decoding objective. Extensive evaluation shows that ID consistently enhances factuality over a wide range of language models, with substantial improvements on the TruthfulQA (+11.2%), Biographies (+15.4%) and LongFact (+8.5%) benchmarks. The performance gains amplify progressively as the number of sampled responses increases, indicating the potential of ID to scale up with repeated sampling.

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.

Generations from large language models (LLMs) can be improved by sampling and scoring multiple solutions to select a final answer. Current "sample and select" methods such as self-consistency (SC) rely on majority voting to score answers. However, when tasks have many distinct and valid answers, selection by voting requires a large number of samples. This makes SC prohibitively expensive for interactive tasks that involve generating multiple actions (answers) sequentially. After establishing that majority voting fails to provide consistent gains on such tasks, we demonstrate how to increase success rates by softening the scoring criterion. We introduce Soft Self-Consistency (SOFT-SC), which replaces SC's discontinuous scoring with a continuous score computed from model likelihoods, allowing for selection even when actions are sparsely distributed. SOFT-SC improves both performance and efficiency on long-horizon interactive tasks, requiring half as many samples as SC for comparable or better performance. For a fixed number of samples, SOFT-SC leads to a 1.3% increase over SC in absolute success rate on writing bash programs, a 6.6% increase on online shopping (WebShop), and a 4.7% increase for an interactive household game (ALFWorld). Finally, we show that SOFT-SC can be applied to both open-source and black-box models.

Self-consistency has emerged as a popular technique for improving large language model accuracy on reasoning tasks. The approach is straightforward: generate multiple reasoning paths and select the most common answer through majority voting. While this reliably boosts accuracy, it remains unclear whether these gains reflect genuine improvements in reasoning quality. We investigate a fundamental question that has not been studied before: does inference scaling improve reasoning faithfulness? We conduct a comprehensive empirical study across four frontier models (GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini-3-flash-preview, and DeepSeek-v3.2) on 100 GSM8K mathematical reasoning problems. Our analysis employs bootstrap confidence intervals, McNemar's tests for paired comparisons, and Cohen's d effect sizes to quantify the effects rigorously. The results reveal striking differences across models that challenge common assumptions about self-consistency. GPT-5.2 shows the expected pattern: accuracy improves from 78% to 90% at N=5, with faithfulness remaining relatively stable (0.540 to 0.510). Claude Opus 4.5 tells a completely different story. Its accuracy actually drops from 78% to 74.3% while faithfulness jumps dramatically from 0.270 to 0.891 at N=5. DeepSeek-v3.2, already at 98% accuracy, shows ceiling effects with modest faithfulness gains (0.440 to 0.541). Gemini-3-flash improves from 81% to 86% accuracy with a slight faithfulness decrease (0.260 to 0.212). Problem difficulty analysis reveals that GPT-5.2 solves 82% of hard problems while breaking only 13% of easy ones. Claude, in contrast, breaks 23% of easy problems, explaining its accuracy decrease. These findings matter for practitioners: self-consistency is not universally beneficial, and teams should test their specific models before deployment. We release our code and provide practical recommendations for navigating these tradeoffs.

Instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) excel at many tasks, and will even provide explanations for their behavior. Since these models are directly accessible to the public, there is a risk that convincing and wrong explanations can lead to unsupported confidence in LLMs. Therefore, interpretability-faithfulness of self-explanations is an important consideration for AI Safety. Assessing the interpretability-faithfulness of these explanations, termed self-explanations, is challenging as the models are too complex for humans to annotate what is a correct explanation. To address this, we propose employing self-consistency checks as a measure of faithfulness. For example, if an LLM says a set of words is important for making a prediction, then it should not be able to make the same prediction without these words. While self-consistency checks are a common approach to faithfulness, they have not previously been applied to LLM's self-explanations. We apply self-consistency checks to three types of self-explanations: counterfactuals, importance measures, and redactions. Our work demonstrate that faithfulness is both task and model dependent, e.g., for sentiment classification, counterfactual explanations are more faithful for Llama2, importance measures for Mistral, and redaction for Falcon 40B. Finally, our findings are robust to prompt-variations.

Chain-of-thought prompting combined with pre-trained large language models has achieved encouraging results on complex reasoning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new decoding strategy, self-consistency, to replace the naive greedy decoding used in chain-of-thought prompting. It first samples a diverse set of reasoning paths instead of only taking the greedy one, and then selects the most consistent answer by marginalizing out the sampled reasoning paths. Self-consistency leverages the intuition that a complex reasoning problem typically admits multiple different ways of thinking leading to its unique correct answer. Our extensive empirical evaluation shows that self-consistency boosts the performance of chain-of-thought prompting with a striking margin on a range of popular arithmetic and commonsense reasoning benchmarks, including GSM8K (+17.9%), SVAMP (+11.0%), AQuA (+12.2%), StrategyQA (+6.4%) and ARC-challenge (+3.9%).

Detecting LLM reasoning failures at inference time without ground-truth labels has motivated a wide range of confidence baselines, including self-consistency, semantic entropy, and P(True), built on within-question sampling and self-evaluation. Operad theory, the formalism for systems built by iterated substitution, suggests a complementary diagnostic: a model's direct answer to a compositional query should agree with the answer it produces by composing a stated decomposition of the same query. We instantiate this idea as operadic consistency (OC), a per-question signal. Across twelve instruction-tuned LLMs (4B to 671B parameters, open-weights and closed-source) on four multi-hop QA datasets, OC is strongly correlated with accuracy on every dataset (Pearson r in [0.86, 0.94], all p leq 0.0004), and is the only signal we evaluate with r geq 0.85 uniformly across all four datasets. Chain-of-thought self-consistency (CoT-SC; Wang et al., 2023) matches OC on HotpotQA and DROP (r = 0.93, 0.87) but drops to r approx 0.45 on MuSiQue and StrategyQA. At the per-question level, OC contributes information beyond CoT-SC and semantic entropy on every dataset (cluster-robust p leq 10^{-16} for the OC coefficient), and the conclusion is robust to additionally controlling for constructed decomposition-aware baselines (p leq 10^{-13}). The same signal yields selective-prediction improvements (accuracy at fixed coverage) over a tuned CoT-SC baseline at the equal-cost K = 3 budget (AUARC lifts of +0.086 to +0.096 and AUROC lifts of +0.092 to +0.164; 95% CIs exclude zero on every cell). On five frontier thinking models, where the decomposition is extracted from the model's own chain of thought, the same equal-cost comparison gives positive selective-prediction point-estimate lift on all 16 (dataset, budget, metric) cells tested, with 95% CIs excluding zero on 12 of the 16.

Despite its simplicity and efficacy, the high token expenditure of self-consistency can limit its practical utility. Here we investigate if self-consistency can be made more token-efficient for long chain-of-thought reasoning tasks, while preserving its parallelism, through early hypothesis pruning. Concretely, we generate all solutions in parallel, but periodically prune intermediate hypotheses that are deemed unnecessary based on two lightweight indicators: (a) the model's own confidence in individual hypotheses, and (b) lexical coverage of all current hypotheses by candidate subsets that are under consideration for continued retention. We design a fast weighted set cover algorithm that utilizes the two indicators; our evaluation of five LLMs on three math benchmarks shows that this method can improve token efficiency for all models, by 10-35% in many cases.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, correctness alone is insufficient. Reliable deployment requires maintaining truthful beliefs under contextual perturbations. Existing evaluations largely rely on point-wise confidence like Self-Consistency, which can mask brittle belief. We show that even facts answered with perfect self-consistency can rapidly collapse under mild contextual interference. To address this gap, we propose Neighbor-Consistency Belief (NCB), a structural measure of belief robustness that evaluates response coherence across a conceptual neighborhood. To validate the efficiency of NCB, we introduce a new cognitive stress-testing protocol that probes outputs stability under contextual interference. Experiments across multiple LLMs show that the performance of high-NCB data is relatively more resistant to interference. Finally, we present Structure-Aware Training (SAT), which optimizes context-invariant belief structure and reduces long-tail knowledge brittleness by approximately 30%. Code will be available at https://github.com/zjunlp/belief.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in translating natural language questions about relational databases into SQL queries. In particular, test-time scaling techniques such as Self-Consistency and Self-Correction can enhance SQL generation accuracy by increasing computational effort during inference. However, these methods have notable limitations: Self-Consistency may select suboptimal outputs despite majority votes, while Self-Correction typically addresses only syntactic errors. To leverage the strengths of both approaches, we propose CSC-SQL, a novel method that integrates Self-Consistency and Self-Correction. CSC-SQL selects the two most frequently occurring outputs from parallel sampling and feeds them into a merge revision model for correction. Additionally, we employ the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) algorithm to fine-tune both the SQL generation and revision models via reinforcement learning, significantly enhancing output quality. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness and generalizability of CSC-SQL. On the BIRD development set, our 3B model achieves 65.28% execution accuracy, while the 7B model achieves 69.19%. The code will be open sourced at https://github.com/CycloneBoy/csc_sql.

Large language models can arrive at the same answer through reasoning paths that are unstable, contradictory, or difficult to rank consistently -- a failure mode especially prevalent in multi-step deductive reasoning. Existing methods assess reliability primarily through output dispersion -- measuring how much sampled answers differ -- but this discards a complementary signal: whether the model can consistently rank competing reasoning candidates. We propose structural uncertainty, a consistency-aware framework derived from the stability of self-preference-induced rankings over sampled reasoning solutions. Given a query, we generate multiple candidate solutions and ask the model to judge pairwise preferences among its own outputs. We aggregate self-preferences into ranking distributions via Bradley-Terry modeling with PageRank, and decompose the signal into two entropy-based components: across-trial ranking instability and within-trial candidate ambiguity. Across five LLMs and eight benchmarks, structural signals provide information complementary to answer dispersion: on logical and mathematical reasoning tasks, the combination improves identification of unreliable instances, while on factual retrieval the structural signal collapses toward uniformity, diagnosing a regime boundary where reasoning-level consistency evaluation is uninformative. The two components relate differently to accuracy: within-trial ambiguity correlates positively with correctness -- consistent with settings where multiple plausible solution paths remain competitive -- while across-trial instability correlates negatively, signaling unreliable reasoning. Structural uncertainty is best understood not as a universal confidence estimator, but as a regime-sensitive evaluator of logical reasoning consistency.

Self-consistency detects hallucinations by generating multiple sampled answers to a question and measuring agreement, but this requires repeated decoding and can be sensitive to lexical variation. Semantic self-consistency improves this by clustering sampled answers by meaning using natural language inference, but it adds both sampling cost and external inference overhead. We show that first-token confidence, phi_first, computed from the normalized entropy of the top-K logits at the first content-bearing answer token of a single greedy decode, matches or modestly exceeds semantic self-consistency on closed-book short-answer factual question answering. Across three 7-8B instruction-tuned models and two benchmarks, phi_first achieves a mean AUROC of 0.820, compared with 0.793 for semantic agreement and 0.791 for standard surface-form self-consistency. A subsumption test shows that phi_first is moderately to strongly correlated with semantic agreement, and combining the two signals yields only a small AUROC improvement over phi_first alone. These results suggest that much of the uncertainty information captured by multi-sample agreement is already available in the model's initial token distribution. We argue that phi_first should be reported as a default low-cost baseline before invoking sampling-based uncertainty estimation.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

Consistency models have been proposed for fast generative modeling, achieving results competitive with diffusion and flow models. However, these methods exhibit inherent instability and limited reproducibility when training from scratch, motivating subsequent work to explain and stabilize these issues. While these efforts have provided valuable insights, the explanations remain fragmented, and the theoretical relationships remain unclear. In this work, we provide a theoretical examination of consistency models by analyzing them from a flow map-based perspective. This joint analysis clarifies how training stability and convergence behavior can give rise to degenerate solutions. Building on these insights, we revisit self-distillation as a practical remedy for certain forms of suboptimal convergence and reformulate it to avoid excessive gradient norms for stable optimization. We further demonstrate that our strategy extends beyond image generation to diffusion-based policy learning, without reliance on a pretrained diffusion model for initialization, thereby illustrating its broader applicability.

The common approach to communicate a large language model's (LLM) uncertainty is to add a percentage number or a hedging word to its response. But is this all we can do? Instead of generating a single answer and then hedging it, an LLM that is fully transparent to the user needs to be able to reflect on its internal belief distribution and output a summary of all options it deems possible, and how likely they are. To test whether LLMs possess this capability, we develop the SelfReflect metric, an information-theoretic distance between a given summary and a distribution over answers. In interventional and human studies, we find that SelfReflect indicates even slight deviations, yielding a fine measure of faithfulness between a summary string and an LLM's actual internal distribution over answers. With SelfReflect, we make a resounding negative observation: modern LLMs are, across the board, incapable of revealing what they are uncertain about, neither through reasoning, nor chains-of-thoughts, nor explicit finetuning. However, we do find that LLMs are able to generate faithful summaries of their uncertainties if we help them by sampling multiple outputs and feeding them back into the context. This simple approach shines a light at the universal way of communicating LLM uncertainties whose future development the SelfReflect score enables.

Industrial CAD workflows require robust, generalizable 3D geometric representations supporting accuracy and explainability. We introduce Shape, a self-supervised foundation model converting surface meshes into dense per-token embeddings. Shape combines a structured 3D latent grid, a multi-scale geometry-aware tokenizer (MAGNO) with cross-attention, and a transformer processor using grouped-query attention and RMSNorm. A learned reconstruction prior enables per-region attribution for explainable predictions. Pretraining uses masked-token reconstruction of normalized geometry statistics and multi-resolution contrastive consistency. The 10.9M-parameter backbone is pretrained on 61,052 CAD meshes from Thingi10K, MFCAD, and Fusion360. On a held-out split of 2,983 meshes, Shape achieves reconstruction R2 = 0.729 and 98.1% top-1 retrieval under the Wang-Isola protocol, with near-zero reconstruction train/val gap (contrastive scores use a larger evaluation pool). A 2x2 ablation on loss type and target-space normalization shows per-dimension normalization is critical: without it, performance collapses (R2 < 0.14, top-1 < 88%); with it, both losses succeed (R2 > 0.70, top-1 > 96%). Smooth-L1 offers secondary stability. Code, embeddings, and an interactive demo are released at https://github.com/simd-ai/shape.

Latent Consistency Model (LCM) extends the Consistency Model to the latent space and leverages the guided consistency distillation technique to achieve impressive performance in accelerating text-to-image synthesis. However, we observed that LCM struggles to generate images with both clarity and detailed intricacy. To address this limitation, we initially delve into and elucidate the underlying causes. Our investigation identifies that the primary issue stems from errors in three distinct areas. Consequently, we introduce Trajectory Consistency Distillation (TCD), which encompasses trajectory consistency function and strategic stochastic sampling. The trajectory consistency function diminishes the distillation errors by broadening the scope of the self-consistency boundary condition and endowing the TCD with the ability to accurately trace the entire trajectory of the Probability Flow ODE. Additionally, strategic stochastic sampling is specifically designed to circumvent the accumulated errors inherent in multi-step consistency sampling, which is meticulously tailored to complement the TCD model. Experiments demonstrate that TCD not only significantly enhances image quality at low NFEs but also yields more detailed results compared to the teacher model at high NFEs.

Outcome-reward reinforcement learning (RL) is a common and increasingly significant way to refine the step-by-step reasoning of multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In the multiple-choice setting - a dominant format for multimodal reasoning benchmarks - the paradigm faces a significant yet often overlooked obstacle: unfaithful trajectories that guess the correct option after a faulty chain of thought receive the same reward as genuine reasoning, which is a flaw that cannot be ignored. We propose Self-Consistency Sampling (SCS) to correct this issue. For each question, SCS (i) introduces small visual perturbations and (ii) performs repeated truncation and resampling of an initial trajectory; agreement among the resulting trajectories yields a differentiable consistency score that down-weights unreliable traces during policy updates. Based on Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct, plugging SCS into RLOO, GRPO, and REINFORCE++ series improves accuracy by up to 7.7 percentage points on six multimodal benchmarks with negligible extra computation. SCS also yields notable gains on both Qwen2.5-VL-3B-Instruct and InternVL3-8B, offering a simple, general remedy for outcome-reward RL in MLLMs.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across tasks, yet they often require additional prompting techniques when facing complex problems. While approaches like self-correction and response selection have emerged as popular solutions, recent studies have shown these methods perform poorly when relying on the LLM itself to provide feedback or selection criteria. We argue this limitation stems from the fact that common LLM post-training procedures lack explicit supervision for discriminative judgment tasks. In this paper, we propose Generative Self-Aggregation (GSA), a novel prompting method that improves answer quality without requiring the model's discriminative capabilities. GSA first samples multiple diverse responses from the LLM, then aggregates them to obtain an improved solution. Unlike previous approaches, our method does not require the LLM to correct errors or compare response quality; instead, it leverages the model's generative abilities to synthesize a new response based on the context of multiple samples. While GSA shares similarities with the self-consistency (SC) approach for response aggregation, SC requires specific verifiable tokens to enable majority voting. In contrast, our approach is more general and can be applied to open-ended tasks. Empirical evaluation demonstrates that GSA effectively improves response quality across various tasks, including mathematical reasoning, knowledge-based problems, and open-ended generation tasks such as code synthesis and conversational responses.

Best-of-N selection is a key technique for improving the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) through increased test-time computation. Current state-of-the-art methods often employ computationally intensive reward models for response evaluation and selection. Reward-free alternatives, like self-consistency and universal self-consistency, are limited in their ability to handle open-ended generation tasks or scale effectively. To address these limitations, we propose self-certainty, a novel and efficient metric that leverages the inherent probability distribution of LLM outputs to estimate response quality without requiring external reward models. We hypothesize that higher distributional self-certainty, aggregated across multiple samples, correlates with improved response accuracy, as it reflects greater confidence in the generated output. Through extensive experiments on various reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that self-certainty (1) scales effectively with increasing sample size N, akin to reward models but without the computational overhead; (2) complements chain-of-thought, improving reasoning performance beyond greedy decoding; and (3) generalizes to open-ended tasks where traditional self-consistency methods fall short. Our findings establish self-certainty as a practical and efficient way for improving LLM reasoning capabilities. The code is available at https://github.com/backprop07/Self-Certainty

Aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) with human preferences is crucial for their deployment in real-world applications. Recent advancements in Self-Rewarding Language Models suggest that an LLM can use its internal reward models (such as LLM-as-a-Judge) yuanself to generate preference data, improving alignment performance without costly human annotation. However, we find that different internal reward models within the same LLM often generate inconsistent preferences. This inconsistency raises concerns about the reliability of self-generated preference data, hinders overall alignment performance, and highlights the need for further research to ensure reliable and coherent alignment with human preferences. To address this limitation, we propose Self-Consistent Internal Rewards (SCIR), a novel framework designed to enhance consistency among internal reward models during training. In each training step, we collect preference predictions from multiple pre-defined internal reward models and enforce consistency and confidence through an inconsistency penalty mechanism, thereby improving the reliability of these internal reward models. We selectively use data with consistent predictions for preference optimization, ensuring the quality of the preference data. By employing self-consistent internal rewards, our method significantly improves the alignment performance and reward modeling capability of LLMs, outperforming baseline methods by a notable margin.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

Self-Consistency mitigates hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by sampling multiple reasoning paths,but it lacks a systematic approach to determine the optimal number of samples or select the most faithful rationale. To address this limitation, we introduce Reasoning-Aware Self-Consistency (RASC), a novel framework that enhances sampling efficiency and reasoning faithfulness by dynamically evaluating both outputs and rationales. RASC assesses the quality of reasoning and the consistency of answers for each generated sample, using these assessments to guide early stopping decisions and rationale selection. The framework employs criteria-based stopping and weighted majority voting, enabling more informed choices on when to halt sampling and which rationale to select. Our comprehensive experiments across diverse question-answering datasets demonstrate that RASC outperforms existing methods, reducing sample usage by approximately 70% while maintaining accuracy. Moreover, RASC facilitates the selection of high-fidelity rationales, thereby improving the faithfulness of LLM outputs. Our approach effectively addresses the efficiency-accuracy trade-off in LLM reasoning tasks, offering a new perspective for more nuanced, faithful, and effective utilization of LLMs in resource-constrained environments.

Self-distillation (SD) is the process of retraining a student on a mixture of ground-truth labels and the teacher's own predictions using the same architecture and training data. Although SD has been empirically shown to often improve generalization, its formal guarantees remain limited. We study SD for ridge regression in unconstrained setting in which the mixing weight ξ may be outside the unit interval. Conditioned on the training data and without any distributional assumptions, we prove that for any squared prediction risk (including out-of-distribution), the optimally mixed student strictly improves upon the ridge teacher for every regularization level λ> 0 at which the teacher ridge risk R(λ) is nonstationary (i.e., R'(λ) neq 0). We obtain a closed-form expression for the optimal mixing weight ξ^star(λ) for any value of λ and show that it obeys the sign rule: sign(ξ^star(λ))=-sign(R'(λ)). In particular, ξ^star(λ) can be negative, which is the case in over-regularized regimes. To quantify the risk improvement due to SD, we derive exact deterministic equivalents for the optimal SD risk in the proportional asymptotics regime (where the sample and feature sizes n and p both diverge but their aspect ratio p/n converges) under general anisotropic covariance and deterministic signals. Our asymptotic analysis extends standard second-order ridge deterministic equivalents to their fourth-order analogs using block linearization, which may be of independent interest. From a practical standpoint, we propose a consistent one-shot tuning method to estimate ξ^star without grid search, sample splitting, or refitting. Experiments on real-world datasets and pretrained neural network features support our theory and the one-shot tuning method.

Scaling test-time compute has emerged as a key strategy for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), particularly in tasks like mathematical problem-solving. A traditional approach, Self-Consistency (SC), generates multiple solutions to a problem and selects the most common answer via majority voting. Another common method involves scoring each solution with a reward model (verifier) and choosing the best one. Recent advancements in Generative Reward Models (GenRM) reframe verification as a next-token prediction task, enabling inference-time scaling along a new axis. Specifically, GenRM generates multiple verification chains-of-thought to score each solution. Under a limited inference budget, this introduces a fundamental trade-off: should you spend the budget on scaling solutions via SC or generate fewer solutions and allocate compute to verification via GenRM? To address this, we evaluate GenRM against SC under a fixed inference budget. Interestingly, we find that SC is more compute-efficient than GenRM for most practical inference budgets across diverse models and datasets. For instance, GenRM first matches SC after consuming up to 8x the inference compute and requires significantly more compute to outperform it. Furthermore, we derive inference scaling laws for the GenRM paradigm, revealing that compute-optimal inference favors scaling solution generation more aggressively than scaling the number of verifications. Our work provides practical guidance on optimizing test-time scaling by balancing solution generation and verification. The code is available at https://github.com/nishadsinghi/sc-genrm-scaling.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting in large language models (LLMs) has shown promising performance on mathematical reasoning tasks. Recently, Self-Consistency samples a diverse set of reasoning chains with different answers and chooses the answer by majority voting. Though effective, its performance cannot be further improved by sampling more reasoning chains. To address this problem, we propose to integrate backward reasoning into answer verification. We first mask a number in the question by {bf x}. The LLM is then asked to predict the masked number with a candidate answer A embedded in the template: ``If we know the answer to the above question is {A}, what is the value of unknown variable {bf x}?'' The LLM is expected to predict the masked number successfully if the provided candidate answer is correct. To further improve performance, we propose FOBAR (FOrward-BAckward Reasoning) to combine forward and backward reasoning for verifying candidate answers. Experiments are performed on six standard mathematical data sets and three LLMs (text-davinci-003, GPT-3.5-Turbo, GPT-4). Results show that FOBAR achieves state-of-the-art performance. In particular, FOBAR outperforms Self-Consistency which uses forward reasoning alone, demonstrating that combining forward and forward reasoning is better. It also outperforms existing verification methods, verifying the effectiveness of using the simple template in backward reasoning and the proposed combination.

Turning a research idea into a complete paper requires more than text generation: the system must retrieve literature, design and execute experiments, revise claims according to evidence, produce publication-ready figures, and maintain consistency across a long generation process. We present Spark-to-Paper, an end-to-end research paper generation system implemented as thirteen composable skills inside an existing coding assistant, without requiring a separate agent platform or orchestration service. Spark-to-Paper separates model-based judgment from deterministic operations that can be directly executed and checked. It further separates experiment planning from reporting, so that required evidence is specified before results are observed and manuscript claims are revised according to measured outcomes. To improve reliability over long research trajectories, the system combines deterministic integrity checks with self-critique and bounds a failure mode we call the Self-Refutation Loop, in which repeated experiments continue to reject the original research objective. Spark-to-Paper also produces editable vector figures through programmatic plotting for experimental results and code-based reconstruction for generated method diagrams. Across eight controlled research topics, Spark-to-Paper achieves 99.5% citation validity and 96.4% figure editability. A controlled ablation increases fabrication detection from 14% for a single-pass draft to 92% with the full integrity and review stack, while adversarial review achieves 74% precision. The full system uses 11.9M tokens, costs $8.1 per manuscript, and requires 3.2 hours on average. These results show that end-to-end research paper generation can be implemented as a lightweight, composable workflow inside existing coding assistants while keeping experimental evidence central to how claims are accepted, revised, or abandoned.

Recent advances of Reinforcement Learning (RL) have highlighted its potential in complex reasoning tasks, yet effective training often relies on external supervision, which limits the broader applicability. In this work, we propose a novel self-rewarding reinforcement learning framework to enhance Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning by leveraging the consistency of intermediate reasoning states across different reasoning trajectories. Our key insight is that correct responses often exhibit consistent trajectory patterns in terms of model likelihood: their intermediate reasoning states tend to converge toward their own final answers (high consistency) with minimal deviation toward other candidates (low volatility). Inspired by this observation, we introduce CoVo, an intrinsic reward mechanism that integrates Consistency and Volatility via a robust vector-space aggregation strategy, complemented by a curiosity bonus to promote diverse exploration. CoVo enables LLMs to perform RL in a self-rewarding manner, offering a scalable pathway for learning to reason without external supervision. Extensive experiments on diverse reasoning benchmarks show that CoVo achieves performance comparable to or even surpassing supervised RL. Our code is available at https://github.com/sastpg/CoVo.

Long-horizon LLM agents can fail quietly: they settle on one reading of the evidence early, then spend the rest of the run defending it. We call this premature commitment. Final-answer scoring misses the failure mode because it sees only the answer, not whether the process has already collapsed to a stable path. We define representational commitment as cross-run hidden-state convergence at a fixed reasoning step, and use it as an early diagnostic of trajectory consistency. On Llama-3.1-70B running ReAct on HotpotQA, step-4 hidden-state similarity predicts downstream behavioral consistency (r = -0.35, partial r = -0.45), with a localized temporal and layer-wise signature. The signal replicates across Qwen-2.5-72B and Phi-3-14B, and on StrategyQA (r = -0.83). It does not track correctness: committed-wrong and committed-correct questions are not separable in activation similarity. That boundary is central to the claim. Commitment tells us whether an agent has settled, not whether it is right. A runtime monitor detects inconsistent trajectories from hidden states at AUROC up to 0.97 (0.85--0.88 under a stricter split), and a prompting intervention cuts behavioral variance by 28% against a token-matched control while leaving accuracy statistically unchanged. We also test whether the signal can route self-consistency compute; on a harder benchmark it helps only modestly and is matched by a simpler output-based baseline. The result is a diagnostic for a hidden process failure, with clear limits rather than a general accuracy lever.

Self-correction is a highly desirable capability of large language models (LLMs), yet it has consistently been found to be largely ineffective in modern LLMs. Existing approaches for training self-correction either require multiple models or rely on a more capable model or other forms of supervision. To this end, we develop a multi-turn online reinforcement learning (RL) approach, SCoRe, that significantly improves an LLM's self-correction ability using entirely self-generated data. To build SCoRe, we first show that variants of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on offline model-generated correction traces are insufficient for instilling self-correction behavior. In particular, we observe that training via SFT either suffers from a distribution mismatch between the training data and the model's own responses or implicitly prefers only a certain mode of correction behavior that is often not effective at test time. SCoRe addresses these challenges by training under the model's own distribution of self-generated correction traces and using appropriate regularization to steer the learning process into learning a self-correction strategy that is effective at test time as opposed to simply fitting high-reward responses for a given prompt. This regularization prescribes running a first phase of RL on a base model to generate a policy initialization that is less susceptible to collapse and then using a reward bonus to amplify self-correction during training. When applied to Gemini 1.0 Pro and 1.5 Flash models, we find that SCoRe achieves state-of-the-art self-correction performance, improving the base models' self-correction by 15.6% and 9.1% respectively on the MATH and HumanEval benchmarks.

Self-consistency assumes the most frequent answer among sampled reasoning traces is the most reliable, but this can fail in causal reasoning: samples often repeat the same confounding error, and votes fragment across multiple valid answers, letting an invalid answer win despite a valid minority trace. We introduce CALVER (Causal Axiom-Level VERification), a training-free symbolic verifier that scores structured traces against Pearl's causal criteria, including -separation, backdoor adjustment, and intervention, and selects the highest-scoring candidate without consulting a reference answer. On CLEAR find-one-valid queries that admit multiple graph-valid answers, CALVER reaches 42.1% where plurality, a reward model, an LLM judge, and model confidence remain near 30% on identical frozen pools. Scaling the judge to 72B does not close the gap. In an audited clean-core subset, 11 of 21 graph-valid CALVER selections differ from the benchmark's listed answer while still satisfying the requested predicate. The advantage widens with the sampling budget and reproduces across ten published Bayesian networks, a second model family, and settings where the model must build the graph from text. CALVER also improves thresholded average-treatment-effect decisions against exact ground truth, generalizes to logic under a truth-table checker, and scores each candidate in milliseconds on CPU. CALVER needs only a causal structure, supplied outright or built from the text; wherever that holds, selection can aggregate via causal validity.

Truly reliable AI requires more than simply scaling up knowledge; it demands the ability to know what it knows and when it does not. Yet recent research shows that even the best LLMs misjudge their own competence in more than one in five cases, making any response born of such internal uncertainty impossible to fully trust. Inspired by self-improvement reinforcement learning techniques that require minimal data, we present a simple but powerful framework KnowRL that strengthens a model's internal understanding of its own feasibility boundaries, enabling safer and more responsible behaviour. Our framework combines two components: (i) introspection, where the model generates and classifies tasks it judges feasible or infeasible, and (ii) consensus-based rewarding, where stability of self-knowledge assessment is reinforced through internal agreement. By using internally generated data, this design strengthens consistency in self-knowledge and entirely avoids costly external supervision. In experiments on LLaMA-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-7B, KnowRL steadily improved self-knowledge, validated by both intrinsic self-consistency and extrinsic benchmarking. With nothing more than a small seed set and no external supervision, our method drove gains as high as 28% in accuracy and 12% in F1, outperforming baselines in just a few iterations. Our framework essentially unlocks the untapped capacity of LLMs to self-improve their knowledge awareness, opening the door to reliable, more accountable AI and safer deployment in critical applications. Owing to its simplicity and independence from external effort, we encourage applying this reliability-enhancing process to all future models.

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

Large language models (LLMs) can explain their predictions through post-hoc or Chain-of-Thought (CoT) explanations. But an LLM could make up reasonably sounding explanations that are unfaithful to its underlying reasoning. Recent work has designed tests that aim to judge the faithfulness of post-hoc or CoT explanations. In this work we argue that these faithfulness tests do not measure faithfulness to the models' inner workings -- but rather their self-consistency at output level. Our contributions are three-fold: i) We clarify the status of faithfulness tests in view of model explainability, characterising them as self-consistency tests instead. This assessment we underline by ii) constructing a Comparative Consistency Bank for self-consistency tests that for the first time compares existing tests on a common suite of 11 open LLMs and 5 tasks -- including iii) our new self-consistency measure CC-SHAP. CC-SHAP is a fine-grained measure (not a test) of LLM self-consistency. It compares how a model's input contributes to the predicted answer and to generating the explanation. Our fine-grained CC-SHAP metric allows us iii) to compare LLM behaviour when making predictions and to analyse the effect of other consistency tests at a deeper level, which takes us one step further towards measuring faithfulness by bringing us closer to the internals of the model than strictly surface output-oriented tests. Our code is available at https://github.com/Heidelberg-NLP/CC-SHAP

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capability in numerous tasks and applications. However, fine-tuning LLMs using high-quality datasets under external supervision remains prohibitively expensive. In response, LLM self-improvement approaches have been vibrantly developed recently. The typical paradigm of LLM self-improvement involves training LLM on self-generated data, part of which may be detrimental and should be filtered out due to the unstable data quality. While current works primarily employs filtering strategies based on answer correctness, in this paper, we demonstrate that filtering out correct but with high distribution shift extent (DSE) samples could also benefit the results of self-improvement. Given that the actual sample distribution is usually inaccessible, we propose a new metric called DS weight to approximate DSE, inspired by the Importance Weighting methods. Consequently, we integrate DS weight with self-consistency to comprehensively filter the self-generated samples and fine-tune the language model. Experiments show that with only a tiny valid set (up to 5\% size of the training set) to compute DS weight, our approach can notably promote the reasoning ability of current LLM self-improvement methods. The resulting performance is on par with methods that rely on external supervision from pre-trained reward models.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for tabular question answering, yet calibration on structured data is largely unstudied. This paper presents the first systematic comparison of five confidence estimation methods across five frontier LLMs and two tabular QA benchmarks. All models are severely overconfident (smooth ECE 0.35-0.64 versus 0.10-0.15 reported for textual QA). A consistent self-evaluation versus perturbation dichotomy replicates across both benchmarks and all four fully-covered models: self-evaluation methods (verbalized, P(True)) achieve AUROC 0.42-0.76, while perturbation methods (semantic entropy, self-consistency, and our Multi-Format Agreement) achieve AUROC 0.78-0.86. Per-model paired bootstrap tests reject the null at p<0.001 after Holm-Bonferroni correction, and a 3-seed check on GPT-4o-mini gives a per-seed standard deviation of only 0.006. The paper proposes Multi-Format Agreement (MFA), which exploits the lossless and deterministic serialization variation unique to structured data (Markdown, HTML, JSON, CSV) to estimate confidence at 20% lower API cost than sampling baselines. MFA reduces ECE by 44-63%, generalizes across all four models on TableBench (mean AUROC 0.80), and combines complementarily with sampling: an MFA + self-consistency ensemble lifts AUROC from 0.74 to 0.82. A secondary contribution, structure-aware recalibration, improves AUROC by +10 percentage points over standard post-hoc methods.

LLM self-explanations are often presented as a promising tool for AI oversight, yet their faithfulness to the model's true reasoning process is poorly understood. Existing faithfulness metrics have critical limitations, typically relying on identifying unfaithfulness via adversarial prompting or detecting reasoning errors. These methods overlook the predictive value of explanations. We introduce Normalized Simulatability Gain (NSG), a general and scalable metric based on the idea that a faithful explanation should allow an observer to learn a model's decision-making criteria, and thus better predict its behavior on related inputs. We evaluate 18 frontier proprietary and open-weight models, e.g., Gemini 3, GPT-5.2, and Claude 4.5, on 7,000 counterfactuals from popular datasets covering health, business, and ethics. We find self-explanations substantially improve prediction of model behavior (11-37% NSG). Self-explanations also provide more predictive information than explanations generated by external models, even when those models are stronger. This implies an advantage from self-knowledge that external explanation methods cannot replicate. Our approach also reveals that, across models, 5-15% of self-explanations are egregiously misleading. Despite their imperfections, we show a positive case for self-explanations: they encode information that helps predict model behavior.

Self-distillation (SD) offers a promising path for adapting large language models (LLMs) without relying on stronger external teachers. However, SD in autoregressive LLMs remains challenging because self-generated trajectories are free-form, correctness is task-dependent, and plausible rationales can still provide unstable or unreliable supervision. Existing methods mainly examine isolated design choices, leaving their effectiveness, roles, and interactions unclear. In this paper, we propose UniSD, a unified framework to systematically study self-distillation. UniSD integrates complementary mechanisms that address supervision reliability, representation alignment, and training stability, including multi-teacher agreement, EMA teacher stabilization, token-level contrastive learning, feature matching, and divergence clipping. Across six benchmarks and six models from three model families, UniSD reveals when self-distillation improves over static imitation, which components drive the gains, and how these components interact across tasks. Guided by these insights, we construct UniSDfull, an integrated pipeline that combines complementary components and achieves the strongest overall performance, improving over the base model by +5.4 points and the strongest baseline by +2.8 points. Extensive evaluation highlights self-distillation as a practical and steerable approach for efficient LLM adaptation without stronger external teachers.

Consistency models are a nascent family of generative models that can sample high quality data in one step without the need for adversarial training. Current consistency models achieve optimal sample quality by distilling from pre-trained diffusion models and employing learned metrics such as LPIPS. However, distillation limits the quality of consistency models to that of the pre-trained diffusion model, and LPIPS causes undesirable bias in evaluation. To tackle these challenges, we present improved techniques for consistency training, where consistency models learn directly from data without distillation. We delve into the theory behind consistency training and identify a previously overlooked flaw, which we address by eliminating Exponential Moving Average from the teacher consistency model. To replace learned metrics like LPIPS, we adopt Pseudo-Huber losses from robust statistics. Additionally, we introduce a lognormal noise schedule for the consistency training objective, and propose to double total discretization steps every set number of training iterations. Combined with better hyperparameter tuning, these modifications enable consistency models to achieve FID scores of 2.51 and 3.25 on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 64times 64 respectively in a single sampling step. These scores mark a 3.5times and 4times improvement compared to prior consistency training approaches. Through two-step sampling, we further reduce FID scores to 2.24 and 2.77 on these two datasets, surpassing those obtained via distillation in both one-step and two-step settings, while narrowing the gap between consistency models and other state-of-the-art generative models.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit positional bias in how they use context, which especially complicates listwise ranking. To address this, we propose permutation self-consistency, a form of self-consistency over ranking list outputs of black-box LLMs. Our key idea is to marginalize out different list orders in the prompt to produce an order-independent ranking with less positional bias. First, given some input prompt, we repeatedly shuffle the list in the prompt and pass it through the LLM while holding the instructions the same. Next, we aggregate the resulting sample of rankings by computing the central ranking closest in distance to all of them, marginalizing out prompt order biases in the process. Theoretically, we prove the robustness of our method, showing convergence to the true ranking in the presence of random perturbations. Empirically, on five list-ranking datasets in sorting and passage reranking, our approach improves scores from conventional inference by up to 7-18% for GPT-3.5 and 8-16% for LLaMA v2 (70B), surpassing the previous state of the art in passage reranking. Our code is at https://github.com/castorini/perm-sc.

To address this gap, our study introduces the concept of causal epistemic consistency, which focuses on the self-consistency of Large Language Models (LLMs) in differentiating intermediates with nuanced differences in causal reasoning. We propose a suite of novel metrics -- intensity ranking concordance, cross-group position agreement, and intra-group clustering -- to evaluate LLMs on this front. Through extensive empirical studies on 21 high-profile LLMs, including GPT-4, Claude3, and LLaMA3-70B, we have favoring evidence that current models struggle to maintain epistemic consistency in identifying the polarity and intensity of intermediates in causal reasoning. Additionally, we explore the potential of using internal token probabilities as an auxiliary tool to maintain causal epistemic consistency. In summary, our study bridges a critical gap in AI research by investigating the self-consistency over fine-grained intermediates involved in causal reasoning.

Code Large Language Models (Code LLMs) are being increasingly employed in real-life applications, so evaluating them is critical. While the conventional accuracy evaluates the performance of Code LLMs on a set of individual tasks, their self-consistency across different tasks is overlooked. Intuitively, a trustworthy model should be self-consistent when generating natural language specifications for its own code and generating code for its own specifications. Failure to preserve self-consistency reveals a lack of understanding of the shared semantics underlying natural language and programming language, and therefore undermines the trustworthiness of a model. In this paper, we first formally define the self-consistency of Code LLMs and then design a framework, IdentityChain, which effectively and efficiently evaluates the self-consistency and conventional accuracy of a model at the same time. We study eleven Code LLMs and show that they fail to preserve self-consistency, which is indeed a distinct aspect from conventional accuracy. Furthermore, we show that IdentityChain can be used as a model debugging tool to expose weaknesses of Code LLMs by demonstrating three major weaknesses that we identify in current models using IdentityChain. Our code is available at https://github.com/marcusm117/IdentityChain.

Recent studies show that large language models (LLMs) improve their performance through self-feedback on certain tasks while degrade on others. We discovered that such a contrary is due to LLM's bias in evaluating their own output. In this paper, we formally define LLM's self-bias - the tendency to favor its own generation - using two statistics. We analyze six LLMs (GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Gemini, LLaMA2, Mixtral and DeepSeek) on translation, constrained text generation, and mathematical reasoning tasks. We find that self-bias is prevalent in all examined LLMs across multiple languages and tasks. Our analysis reveals that while the self-refine pipeline improves the fluency and understandability of model outputs, it further amplifies self-bias. To mitigate such biases, we discover that larger model size and external feedback with accurate assessment can significantly reduce bias in the self-refine pipeline, leading to actual performance improvement in downstream tasks. The code and data are released at https://github.com/xu1998hz/llm_self_bias.

Standard practice within Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) involves optimizing against a Reward Model (RM), which itself is trained to reflect human preferences for desirable generations. A notable subject that is understudied is the (in-)consistency of RMs -- whether they can recognize the semantic changes to different prompts and appropriately adapt their reward assignments -- and their impact on the downstream RLHF model. In this paper, we visit a series of research questions relevant to RM inconsistency: (1) How can we measure the consistency of reward models? (2) How consistent are the existing RMs and how can we improve them? (3) In what ways does reward inconsistency influence the chatbots resulting from the RLHF model training? We propose Contrast Instructions -- a benchmarking strategy for the consistency of RM. Each example in Contrast Instructions features a pair of lexically similar instructions with different ground truth responses. A consistent RM is expected to rank the corresponding instruction and response higher than other combinations. We observe that current RMs trained with the standard ranking objective fail miserably on Contrast Instructions compared to average humans. To show that RM consistency can be improved efficiently without using extra training budget, we propose two techniques ConvexDA and RewardFusion, which enhance reward consistency through extrapolation during the RM training and inference stage, respectively. We show that RLHF models trained with a more consistent RM yield more useful responses, suggesting that reward inconsistency exhibits a trickle-down effect on the downstream RLHF process.

Self-correction is a novel method that can stimulate the potential reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). It involves detecting and correcting errors during the inference process when LLMs solve reasoning problems. However, recent works do not regard self-correction as a spontaneous and intrinsic capability of LLMs. Instead, such correction is achieved through post-hoc generation, external knowledge introduction, multi-model collaboration, and similar techniques. In this paper, we propose a series of mathematical LLMs called S^3c-Math, which are able to perform Spontaneous Step-level Self-correction for Mathematical reasoning. This capability helps LLMs to recognize whether their ongoing inference tends to contain errors and simultaneously correct these errors to produce a more reliable response. We proposed a method, which employs a step-level sampling approach to construct step-wise self-correction data for achieving such ability. Additionally, we implement a training strategy that uses above constructed data to equip LLMs with spontaneous step-level self-correction capacities. Our data and methods have been demonstrated to be effective across various foundation LLMs, consistently showing significant progress in evaluations on GSM8K, MATH, and other mathematical benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to introduce the spontaneous step-level self-correction ability of LLMs in mathematical reasoning.

Self-improving LLM agents increasingly learn from experience without updating any weights. Each episode is stored in an external memory, scored, and retrieved for similar future tasks to shape later behavior. Viewed through a reward lens, the stored score is a proxy reward for an implicit, non-parametric policy. Each retrieved episode then becomes a policy-improvement step whose reliability hinges on how that score is produced. In deployment, ground-truth labels are unavailable, so the stored reward is at best an LLM assessment. This substitution creates a failure mode, the *Echo Gap*, across the memory-based self-improving agents and model families studied. Incorrect episodes receive inflated rewards; thus, the agent preferentially reuses the very mistakes it has most confident in. Because the error compounds through memory rather than averaging out and the confirming judge's errors remain correlated with the original self-grading bias, so it cannot identify which memories are overvalued. The missing property is formalized as the *Error-Independence Assumption* (EIA), which we prove is a *necessary* condition for correcting the inflation, not merely a description of a good verifier: a usable signal must track truth *and* decorrelate its error from the memory bias, and the recoverable payoff is a closed-form function of exactly those two quantities. We further show the inflation compounds not only when retrieval ranks by the stored score but also under plain similarity retrieval which is the regime the deployed agent uses. Finally, the answer-free de-inflation algorithm LUCID delivers a consistent end-to-end gain on the BIRD text-to-SQL benchmark. It raises execution accuracy to 56.9%, above both a Memento-style self-graded agent (54.0%, a +2.9-point mean gain across seeds) and a memory-less agent of identical architecture (52.4%).

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Same-model self-verification, prompting a model to audit its own predicted answer, is a plausible confidence signal for selective prediction, but its practical value remains unclear once strong likelihood-based baselines are taken seriously. We evaluate self-verification against two such baselines, LL-AVG and LL-SUM, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA-MC across multiple model families, scales, and prompt variants. We measure not only correctness ranking, but also abstention quality through AURC and operating-point analyses. The results are sharply task- and model-dependent. On ARC-Challenge, self-verification substantially improves over LL-AVG for Phi-2 and the Qwen models, with the largest gains appearing in Qwen-7B. On TruthfulQA-MC, however, the signal is less reliable: smaller models can become prompt-sensitive, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-8B degrades relative to LL-AVG, and LL-SUM often remains the stronger practical baseline. We therefore do not treat self-verification as a general-purpose uncertainty estimator. In this setting, it is better understood as a conditional confidence signal whose value depends on task type, model family, prompt formulation, and, crucially, the baseline it must beat.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Recent progress in multimodal large language models has led to strong performance on reasoning tasks, but these improvements largely rely on high-quality annotated data or teacher-model distillation, both of which are costly and difficult to scale. To address this, we propose an unsupervised self-evolution training framework for multimodal reasoning that achieves stable performance improvements without using human-annotated answers or external reward models. For each input, we sample multiple reasoning trajectories and jointly model their within group structure. We use the Actor's self-consistency signal as a training prior, and introduce a bounded Judge based modulation to continuously reweight trajectories of different quality. We further model the modulated scores as a group level distribution and convert absolute scores into relative advantages within each group, enabling more robust policy updates. Trained with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on unlabeled data, our method consistently improves reasoning performance and generalization on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, offering a scalable path toward self-evolving multimodal models. The code are available at https://github.com/OPPO-Mente-Lab/LLM-Self-Judge.

Serial verification gates are a core reliability primitive in LLM harnesses: a candidate answer is returned only if k verifier calls all accept it. Under conditionally independent gates, the recent Odds Law (arXiv:2606.15712) shows that posterior log-odds grow linearly in k, so failure decays exponentially, and states that "a tight theory of partially correlated verifier cascades remains open." This note gives a minimal such theory. Modeling the per-instance false-accept rate on the generator's own errors as a latent variable αsim G (de Finetti), the exact cascade posterior is ell_k = ell_0 - ln m_k, with m_k the k-th moment of G. Then: (i) ell_k is concave in k for every non-degenerate G -- the Odds Law is its tangent at the first gate and an upper bound; (ii) for Beta(a,b) latents, failure decays polynomially, 1-r_k asymp k^{-b}, with correlation parameter ρ_v = 1/(a+b+1); (iii) a blind-spot atom of mass 1-π at α=1 caps the evidence extractable from any number of gates at -ln(1-π) nats, so reliability saturates below 1; (iv) letting the true-accept rate also vary (βsim H) yields a trichotomy -- gates eventually always help, plateau, or actively harm -- decided by the upper-tail exponents of G and H, with closed-form crossover k^dagger. The mechanism is survivorship: errors surviving gates are the high-α ones. The theory is measurable: R repeated verdicts per instance identify the first R moments of G, so two verdicts identify ρ_v; beta-binomial likelihood and NPMLE recover the reliability curve and the ill-posed ceiling. In synthetic tests, independence-based extrapolation underestimates failure by 20x at k=5 and ~3000x at k=10; the correlated fit at R=8 tracks held-out depths. The practical lever is decorrelation -- changing model family, modality, or evidence source -- not adding gates.

Consistency models (CMs) are a powerful class of diffusion-based generative models optimized for fast sampling. Most existing CMs are trained using discretized timesteps, which introduce additional hyperparameters and are prone to discretization errors. While continuous-time formulations can mitigate these issues, their success has been limited by training instability. To address this, we propose a simplified theoretical framework that unifies previous parameterizations of diffusion models and CMs, identifying the root causes of instability. Based on this analysis, we introduce key improvements in diffusion process parameterization, network architecture, and training objectives. These changes enable us to train continuous-time CMs at an unprecedented scale, reaching 1.5B parameters on ImageNet 512x512. Our proposed training algorithm, using only two sampling steps, achieves FID scores of 2.06 on CIFAR-10, 1.48 on ImageNet 64x64, and 1.88 on ImageNet 512x512, narrowing the gap in FID scores with the best existing diffusion models to within 10%.

We introduce Self-Anchoring Calibration Drift (SACD), a hypothesized tendency for large language models (LLMs) to show systematic changes in expressed confidence when building iteratively on their own prior outputs across multi-turn conversations. We report an empirical study comparing three frontier models -- Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, and GPT-5.2 -- across 150 questions spanning factual, technical, and open-ended domains, using three conditions: single-turn baseline (A), multi-turn self-anchoring (B), and independent repetition control (C). Results reveal a complex, model-heterogeneous pattern that partially diverges from pre-registered hypotheses. Claude Sonnet 4.6 exhibited significant decreasing confidence under self-anchoring (mean CDS = -0.032, t(14) = -2.43, p = .029, d = -0.627), while also showing significant calibration error drift (F(4,56) = 22.77, p < .001, eta^2 = .791). GPT-5.2 showed the opposite pattern in open-ended domains (mean CDS = +0.026) with significant ECE escalation by Turn 5. Gemini 3.1 Pro showed no significant CDS (t(14) = 0.38, p = .710), but its Condition C data reveals a striking ECE pattern: without self-anchoring, Gemini's calibration error drops from .327 to near zero across repetitions, whereas self-anchoring holds ECE flat at approximately .333 -- indicating that SACD can manifest as suppression of natural calibration improvement rather than ac

Self-evaluation using large language models (LLMs) has proven valuable not only in benchmarking but also methods like reward modeling, constitutional AI, and self-refinement. But new biases are introduced due to the same LLM acting as both the evaluator and the evaluatee. One such bias is self-preference, where an LLM evaluator scores its own outputs higher than others' while human annotators consider them of equal quality. But do LLMs actually recognize their own outputs when they give those texts higher scores, or is it just a coincidence? In this paper, we investigate if self-recognition capability contributes to self-preference. We discover that, out of the box, LLMs such as GPT-4 and Llama 2 have non-trivial accuracy at distinguishing themselves from other LLMs and humans. By fine-tuning LLMs, we discover a linear correlation between self-recognition capability and the strength of self-preference bias; using controlled experiments, we show that the causal explanation resists straightforward confounders. We discuss how self-recognition can interfere with unbiased evaluations and AI safety more generally.

Consistently checking the statistical significance of experimental results is one of the mandatory methodological steps to address the so-called "reproducibility crisis" in deep reinforcement learning. In this tutorial paper, we explain how the number of random seeds relates to the probabilities of statistical errors. For both the t-test and the bootstrap confidence interval test, we recall theoretical guidelines to determine the number of random seeds one should use to provide a statistically significant comparison of the performance of two algorithms. Finally, we discuss the influence of deviations from the assumptions usually made by statistical tests. We show that they can lead to inaccurate evaluations of statistical errors and provide guidelines to counter these negative effects. We make our code available to perform the tests.

Vision-language models often hallucinate details, generating non-existent objects or inaccurate attributes that compromise output reliability. Existing methods typically address these issues via extensive human annotations or external supervision from more powerful models. In this work, we present a novel framework that leverages the model's self-consistency between long responses and short answers to generate preference pairs for training. We observe that short binary questions tend to yield highly reliable responses, which can be used to query the target model to evaluate and rank its generated responses. Specifically, we design a self-reflection pipeline where detailed model responses are compared against concise binary answers, and inconsistency signals are utilized to automatically curate high-quality training data without human annotations or external model-based supervision. By relying solely on self-consistency rather than external supervision, our method offers a scalable and efficient solution that effectively reduces hallucinations using unlabeled data. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks, i.e., AMBER, MultiObject-Hal (ROPE), Object HalBench, and MMHal-Bench, demonstrate significant improvements in factual grounding and reliability. Moreover, our approach maintains robust instruction-following ability, as evidenced by enhanced performance on LLaVA-Bench and MMBench.

Recursive self-improvement is moving from theory to practice: modern systems can critique, revise, and evaluate their own outputs, yet iterative self-modification risks subtle alignment drift. We introduce SAHOO, a practical framework to monitor and control drift through three safeguards: (i) the Goal Drift Index (GDI), a learned multi-signal detector combining semantic, lexical, structural, and distributional measures; (ii) constraint preservation checks that enforce safety-critical invariants such as syntactic correctness and non-hallucination; and (iii) regression-risk quantification to flag improvement cycles that undo prior gains. Across 189 tasks in code generation, mathematical reasoning, and truthfulness, SAHOO produces substantial quality gains, including 18.3 percent improvement in code tasks and 16.8 percent in reasoning, while preserving constraints in two domains and maintaining low violations in truthfulness. Thresholds are calibrated on a small validation set of 18 tasks across three cycles. We further map the capability-alignment frontier, showing efficient early improvement cycles but rising alignment costs later and exposing domain-specific tensions such as fluency versus factuality. SAHOO therefore makes alignment preservation during recursive self-improvement measurable, deployable, and systematically validated at scale.

Large language model agents have shown strong potential in complex interactive tasks, yet their reinforcement learning (RL) is often hindered by sparse rewards, as a long multi-turn trajectory may receive only a single outcome-level signal. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) provides dense token-level supervision from a privileged teacher, but the teacher may not be reliable at every position. Existing methods commonly rely on isolated token-level discrepancies, which can be sensitive to noise, or assign a shared step-level weight that may overlook positional variation. We propose Persistent Consistency Self-Distillation (PCSD), which derives token-level distillation weights from the local persistence of teacher-favoring signals. PCSD combines adaptive windows with exponentially decayed aggregation to capture persistent relative teacher support, applies trend-aware modulation to attenuate locally declining support, and produces continuous weights through sigmoid gating. The resulting objective is jointly optimized with GRPO, combining dense teacher guidance with sparse environmental feedback. Without inference-time skills, PCSD achieves the best ALFWorld Overall results among all baselines on both backbones, exceeding GRPO by 15.6 and 13.3 points and SDAR by 6.2 and 5.5 points, while remaining competitive on WebShop and gaining 15.8 points over GRPO on unseen ALFWorld split.

Although large language models (LLMs) have become transformative, they still make mistakes and can explore unproductive reasoning paths. Self-correction is an important capability for a trustworthy LLM, particularly an autoregressive LLM. While LLMs can identify error in user input, they exhibit a systematic 'Self-Correction Blind Spot' - failing to correct identical error in their own outputs. To systematically study this phenomenon, we introduce Self-Correction Bench, a systematic framework to measure this phenomenon through controlled error injection at three complexity levels. Testing 14 models, we find an average 64.5% blind spot rate. We find multiple evidences that this limitation relates to training data composition: human training demonstrations predominantly show error-free responses rather than error-correction sequences, unlike RL-trained models that learn error correction through outcome feedback. Remarkably, simply appending "Wait" reduces blind spots by 89.3%, suggesting that the capability exists but requires activation. Our work highlights a critical limitation in current LLMs and offers potential avenues for improving their reliability and trustworthiness.

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to address the ongoing debate about its feasibility. Our research has identified an important latent factor - the "confidence" of LLMs - during the self-correction process. Overlooking this factor may cause the models to over-criticize themselves, resulting in unreliable conclusions regarding the efficacy of self-correction. We have experimentally observed that LLMs possess the capability to understand the "confidence" in their own responses. It motivates us to develop an "If-or-Else" (IoE) prompting framework, designed to guide LLMs in assessing their own "confidence", facilitating intrinsic self-corrections. We conduct extensive experiments and demonstrate that our IoE-based Prompt can achieve a consistent improvement regarding the accuracy of self-corrected responses over the initial answers. Our study not only sheds light on the underlying factors affecting self-correction in LLMs, but also introduces a practical framework that utilizes the IoE prompting principle to efficiently improve self-correction capabilities with "confidence". The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-CLeaR/IoE-Prompting.git.

Consistency models are a new family of generative models capable of producing high-quality samples in either a single step or multiple steps. Recently, consistency models have demonstrated impressive performance, achieving results on par with diffusion models in the pixel space. However, the success of scaling consistency training to large-scale datasets, particularly for text-to-image and video generation tasks, is determined by performance in the latent space. In this work, we analyze the statistical differences between pixel and latent spaces, discovering that latent data often contains highly impulsive outliers, which significantly degrade the performance of iCT in the latent space. To address this, we replace Pseudo-Huber losses with Cauchy losses, effectively mitigating the impact of outliers. Additionally, we introduce a diffusion loss at early timesteps and employ optimal transport (OT) coupling to further enhance performance. Lastly, we introduce the adaptive scaling-c scheduler to manage the robust training process and adopt Non-scaling LayerNorm in the architecture to better capture the statistics of the features and reduce outlier impact. With these strategies, we successfully train latent consistency models capable of high-quality sampling with one or two steps, significantly narrowing the performance gap between latent consistency and diffusion models. The implementation is released here: https://github.com/quandao10/sLCT/

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Diffusion models achieve superior generation quality but suffer from slow generation speed due to the iterative nature of denoising. In contrast, consistency models, a new generative family, achieve competitive performance with significantly faster sampling. These models are trained either through consistency distillation, which leverages pretrained diffusion models, or consistency training/tuning directly from raw data. In this work, we propose a novel framework for understanding consistency models by modeling the denoising process of the diffusion model as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and framing consistency model training as the value estimation through Temporal Difference~(TD) Learning. More importantly, this framework allows us to analyze the limitations of current consistency training/tuning strategies. Built upon Easy Consistency Tuning (ECT), we propose Stable Consistency Tuning (SCT), which incorporates variance-reduced learning using the score identity. SCT leads to significant performance improvements on benchmarks such as CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-64. On ImageNet-64, SCT achieves 1-step FID 2.42 and 2-step FID 1.55, a new SoTA for consistency models.

We examine whether human psychometric questionnaires can serve as reliable tools for characterizing and predicting LLM behavior in everyday user interactions. We analyze eight open-source LLMs by comparing their value and personality profiles derived from two different methods: Likert self-reports on established questionnaires (PVQ-40/21 and BFI-44/10) and generation probabilities over value-laden responses to everyday user queries. The two profiles diverge substantially. Within-construct item consistency, often cited as evidence of stable LLM dispositions, disappears in generation probabilities. We attribute this gap to the fact that explicit lexical cues in established questionnaire items allow models to recognize the target construct and respond in alignment-consistent, socially desirable ways, whereas realistic user queries provide no such cues. In addition, demographic persona prompts shift models' responses to human questionnaires in ways consistent with real human patterns, but no such shifts appear in the generation probabilities of responses to realistic user queries, showing their limited ability to simulate the behaviors of target demographics in real-world user interactions. Overall, our study shows that human psychometric questionnaires are insufficient tools for predicting LLM behavior and suggests generation-based profiling as a more accurate measure.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are notorious for blending fact with fiction and generating non-factual content, known as hallucinations. To tackle this challenge, we propose an interactive system that helps users obtain insights into the reliability of the generated text. Our approach is based on the idea that the self-consistency of multiple samples generated by the same LLM relates to its confidence in individual claims in the generated texts. Using this idea, we design RELIC, an interactive system that enables users to investigate and verify semantic-level variations in multiple long-form responses. This allows users to recognize potentially inaccurate information in the generated text and make necessary corrections. From a user study with ten participants, we demonstrate that our approach helps users better verify the reliability of the generated text. We further summarize the design implications and lessons learned from this research for inspiring future studies on reliable human-LLM interactions.

As synthetic data becomes higher quality and proliferates on the internet, machine learning models are increasingly trained on a mix of human- and machine-generated data. Despite the successful stories of using synthetic data for representation learning, using synthetic data for generative model training creates "self-consuming loops" which may lead to training instability or even collapse, unless certain conditions are met. Our paper aims to stabilize self-consuming generative model training. Our theoretical results demonstrate that by introducing an idealized correction function, which maps a data point to be more likely under the true data distribution, self-consuming loops can be made exponentially more stable. We then propose self-correction functions, which rely on expert knowledge (e.g. the laws of physics programmed in a simulator), and aim to approximate the idealized corrector automatically and at scale. We empirically validate the effectiveness of self-correcting self-consuming loops on the challenging human motion synthesis task, and observe that it successfully avoids model collapse, even when the ratio of synthetic data to real data is as high as 100%.

Entropy and its various generalizations are important in many fields, including mathematical statistics, communication theory, physics and computer science, for characterizing the amount of information associated with a probability distribution. In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit statistics for the multivariate Student and multivariate Pearson type II distributions, based on the maximum entropy principle and a class of estimators for Renyi entropy based on nearest neighbour distances. We prove the L2-consistency of these statistics using results on the subadditivity of Euclidean functionals on nearest neighbour graphs, and investigate their rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution using Monte Carlo methods.

Standard accuracy benchmarks are designed to test how closely large language models (LLMs) approach correct answers, but are not suitable for testing whether LLMs stick with a correct answer when that answer is challenged by a plausible counter-argument. We introduce a controlled protocol for evaluating answer stability: after a model answers a multiple-choice question correctly, we challenge the model's answer with a coherent argument for an incorrect option and measure whether the model flips. The setup a) isolates argumentative content from overt social pressure and b) varies argument length, self-attribution, and cross-model source. Across seven frontier models and 57 MMLU subjects, flip rates range from 17.5% to 97.3%, revealing large differences in stability that are not captured by accuracy metrics alone. We find that self-attribution consistently increases flip rates (mean +7.1pp, up to +18.7pp). Also, pooling wrong-answer arguments across models and selecting the most effective one per question yields stronger adversarial challenges than relying on any single source model. We further construct MaxFlip, a curated challenge set that amplifies flips by up to +23.6pp over standard self-generated challenges. We release the protocol, challenge records, and MaxFlip to support stability evaluation alongside standard accuracy benchmarks. Materials are available at https://github.com/nafisenik/WhoFlips and https://hf.co/datasets/nafisehNik/WhoFlips.

In recent years, the rapid increase in scientific papers has overwhelmed traditional review mechanisms, resulting in varying quality of publications. Although existing methods have explored the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) for automated scientific reviewing, their generated contents are often generic or partial. To address the issues above, we introduce an automated paper reviewing framework SEA. It comprises of three modules: Standardization, Evaluation, and Analysis, which are represented by models SEA-S, SEA-E, and SEA-A, respectively. Initially, SEA-S distills data standardization capabilities of GPT-4 for integrating multiple reviews for a paper. Then, SEA-E utilizes standardized data for fine-tuning, enabling it to generate constructive reviews. Finally, SEA-A introduces a new evaluation metric called mismatch score to assess the consistency between paper contents and reviews. Moreover, we design a self-correction strategy to enhance the consistency. Extensive experimental results on datasets collected from eight venues show that SEA can generate valuable insights for authors to improve their papers.

We propose a new method to detect deepfake images using the cue of the source feature inconsistency within the forged images. It is based on the hypothesis that images' distinct source features can be preserved and extracted after going through state-of-the-art deepfake generation processes. We introduce a novel representation learning approach, called pair-wise self-consistency learning (PCL), for training ConvNets to extract these source features and detect deepfake images. It is accompanied by a new image synthesis approach, called inconsistency image generator (I2G), to provide richly annotated training data for PCL. Experimental results on seven popular datasets show that our models improve averaged AUC over the state of the art from 96.45% to 98.05% in the in-dataset evaluation and from 86.03% to 92.18% in the cross-dataset evaluation.

We study self-rewarding reasoning large language models (LLMs), which can simultaneously generate step-by-step reasoning and evaluate the correctness of their outputs during the inference time-without external feedback. This integrated approach allows a single model to independently guide its reasoning process, offering computational advantages for model deployment. We particularly focus on the representative task of self-correction, where models autonomously detect errors in their responses, revise outputs, and decide when to terminate iterative refinement loops. To enable this, we propose a two-staged algorithmic framework for constructing self-rewarding reasoning models using only self-generated data. In the first stage, we employ sequential rejection sampling to synthesize long chain-of-thought trajectories that incorporate both self-rewarding and self-correction mechanisms. Fine-tuning models on these curated data allows them to learn the patterns of self-rewarding and self-correction. In the second stage, we further enhance the models' ability to assess response accuracy and refine outputs through reinforcement learning with rule-based signals. Experiments with Llama-3 and Qwen-2.5 demonstrate that our approach surpasses intrinsic self-correction capabilities and achieves performance comparable to systems that rely on external reward models.

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in high-stakes contexts, such as medical diagnosis and finance. We show that this inconsistent behavior extends beyond predictions to feature attributions, which may likewise have negative implications for the intelligibility of a model, and one's ability to find recourse for subjects. We then introduce selective ensembles to mitigate such inconsistencies by applying hypothesis testing to the predictions of a set of models trained using randomly-selected starting conditions; importantly, selective ensembles can abstain in cases where a consistent outcome cannot be achieved up to a specified confidence level. We prove that that prediction disagreement between selective ensembles is bounded, and empirically demonstrate that selective ensembles achieve consistent predictions and feature attributions while maintaining low abstention rates. On several benchmark datasets, selective ensembles reach zero inconsistently predicted points, with abstention rates as low 1.5%.

This paper introduces rStar, a self-play mutual reasoning approach that significantly improves reasoning capabilities of small language models (SLMs) without fine-tuning or superior models. rStar decouples reasoning into a self-play mutual generation-discrimination process. First, a target SLM augments the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with a rich set of human-like reasoning actions to construct higher quality reasoning trajectories. Next, another SLM, with capabilities similar to the target SLM, acts as a discriminator to verify each trajectory generated by the target SLM. The mutually agreed reasoning trajectories are considered mutual consistent, thus are more likely to be correct. Extensive experiments across five SLMs demonstrate rStar can effectively solve diverse reasoning problems, including GSM8K, GSM-Hard, MATH, SVAMP, and StrategyQA. Remarkably, rStar boosts GSM8K accuracy from 12.51% to 63.91% for LLaMA2-7B, from 36.46% to 81.88% for Mistral-7B, from 74.53% to 91.13% for LLaMA3-8B-Instruct. Code will be available at https://github.com/zhentingqi/rStar.

In statistical modelling the biggest threat is concept drift which makes the model gradually showing deteriorating performance over time. There are state of the art methodologies to detect the impact of concept drift, however general strategy considered to overcome the issue in performance is to rebuild or re-calibrate the model periodically as the variable patterns for the model changes significantly due to market change or consumer behavior change etc. Quantitative research is the most widely spread application of data science in Marketing or financial domain where applicability of state of the art reinforcement learning for auto-learning is less explored paradigm. Reinforcement learning is heavily dependent on having a simulated environment which is majorly available for gaming or online systems, to learn from the live feedback. However, there are some research happened on the area of online advertisement, pricing etc where due to the nature of the online learning environment scope of reinforcement learning is explored. Our proposed solution is a reinforcement learning based, true self-learning algorithm which can adapt to the data change or concept drift and auto learn and self-calibrate for the new patterns of the data solving the problem of concept drift. Keywords - Reinforcement learning, Genetic Algorithm, Q-learning, Classification modelling, CMA-ES, NES, Multi objective optimization, Concept drift, Population stability index, Incremental learning, F1-measure, Predictive Modelling, Self-learning, MCTS, AlphaGo, AlphaZero

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Self-distillation (SD) is the process of first training a teacher model and then using its predictions to train a student model with the same architecture. Specifically, the student's objective function is big(xi*ell(teacher's predictions, student's predictions) + (1-xi)*ell(given labels, student's predictions)big), where ell is some loss function and xi is some parameter in [0,1]. Empirically, SD has been observed to provide performance gains in several settings. In this paper, we theoretically characterize the effect of SD in two supervised learning problems with noisy labels. We first analyze SD for regularized linear regression and show that in the high label noise regime, the optimal value of xi that minimizes the expected error in estimating the ground truth parameter is surprisingly greater than 1. Empirically, we show that xi > 1 works better than xi leq 1 even with the cross-entropy loss for several classification datasets when 50\% or 30\% of the labels are corrupted. Further, we quantify when optimal SD is better than optimal regularization. Next, we analyze SD in the case of logistic regression for binary classification with random label corruption and quantify the range of label corruption in which the student outperforms the teacher in terms of accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind for the cross-entropy loss.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation σ^2 mapsto κ(σ^2), explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: anisotropy across eigenmodes, inhomogeneity across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of LLM test-time scaling. However, existing approaches to incentivize LLMs' deep thinking abilities generally require large-scale data or significant training efforts. Meanwhile, it remains unclear how to improve the thinking abilities of less powerful base models. In this work, we introduce S^2R, an efficient framework that enhances LLM reasoning by teaching models to self-verify and self-correct during inference. Specifically, we first initialize LLMs with iterative self-verification and self-correction behaviors through supervised fine-tuning on carefully curated data. The self-verification and self-correction skills are then further strengthened by both outcome-level and process-level reinforcement learning, with minimized resource requirements, enabling the model to adaptively refine its reasoning process during inference. Our results demonstrate that, with only 3.1k self-verifying and self-correcting behavior initialization samples, Qwen2.5-math-7B achieves an accuracy improvement from 51.0\% to 81.6\%, outperforming models trained on an equivalent amount of long-CoT distilled data. Extensive experiments and analysis based on three base models across both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks validate the effectiveness of S^2R. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/NineAbyss/S2R.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a promising paradigm for improving large language model (LLM) agents on long-horizon interactive tasks. However, in partially observable environments, incomplete observations cause agent beliefs to drift over time, while delayed rewards obscure the causal impact of intermediate decisions, exacerbating temporal credit assignment challenges. To address this, we propose ReBel (Reward Belief), a process-level reinforcement learning algorithm that explicitly models structured belief states to summarize interaction history and guide subsequent policy learning. ReBel introduces belief-consistency supervision, converting discrepancies between predicted beliefs and observed feedback into dense self-supervised signals without requiring external step-wise annotations or verifiers. It also employs belief-aware grouping to compare trajectories under similar belief states, yielding more robust and lower-variance advantage estimates. We evaluate ReBel on challenging long-horizon benchmarks, including ALFWorld and WebShop. ReBel improves task success by up to 20.4 percentage points over the episode-level baseline GRPO and increases sample efficiency by 2.1times. These results suggest that belief-aware self-supervision is a promising direction for reliable long-horizon decision-making under partial observability. Code is available at: https://github.com/Fateyetian/Rebel.git.

Existing long-tailed recognition methods, aiming to train class-balanced models from long-tailed data, generally assume the models would be evaluated on the uniform test class distribution. However, practical test class distributions often violate this assumption (e.g., being either long-tailed or even inversely long-tailed), which may lead existing methods to fail in real applications. In this paper, we study a more practical yet challenging task, called test-agnostic long-tailed recognition, where the training class distribution is long-tailed while the test class distribution is agnostic and not necessarily uniform. In addition to the issue of class imbalance, this task poses another challenge: the class distribution shift between the training and test data is unknown. To tackle this task, we propose a novel approach, called Self-supervised Aggregation of Diverse Experts, which consists of two strategies: (i) a new skill-diverse expert learning strategy that trains multiple experts from a single and stationary long-tailed dataset to separately handle different class distributions; (ii) a novel test-time expert aggregation strategy that leverages self-supervision to aggregate the learned multiple experts for handling unknown test class distributions. We theoretically show that our self-supervised strategy has a provable ability to simulate test-agnostic class distributions. Promising empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both vanilla and test-agnostic long-tailed recognition. Code is available at https://github.com/Vanint/SADE-AgnosticLT.

This paper proposes an interpretation of RLAIF as Bayesian inference by introducing distilled Self-Critique (dSC), which refines the outputs of a LLM through a Gibbs sampler that is later distilled into a fine-tuned model. Only requiring synthetic data, dSC is exercised in experiments regarding safety, sentiment, and privacy control, showing it can be a viable and cheap alternative to align LLMs. Code released at https://github.com/vicgalle/distilled-self-critique.

While LLM-as-a-Judge is widely used in automated evaluation, existing validation practices primarily operate at the level of observed outputs, offering limited insight into whether LLM judges themselves function as stable and reliable measurement instruments. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-phase diagnostic framework for assessing reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge, grounded in Item Response Theory (IRT). The framework adopts Graded Response Model (GRM) of IRT and formalizes reliability along two complementary dimensions: (1) intrinsic consistency, defined as the stability of measurement behavior under prompt variations, and (2) human alignment, capturing correspondence with human quality assessments. We empirically examine diverse LLM judges with this framework, and show that leveraging IRT-GRM yields interpretable signals for diagnosing judgments systematically. These signals provide practical guidance for verifying reliablity of LLM-as-a-Judge and identifying potential causes of unreliability.

Self-improvement is a mechanism in Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training, post-training and test-time inference. We explore a framework where the model verifies its own outputs, filters or reweights data based on this verification, and distills the filtered data. Despite several empirical successes, a fundamental understanding is still lacking. In this work, we initiate a comprehensive, modular and controlled study on LLM self-improvement. We provide a mathematical formulation for self-improvement, which is largely governed by a quantity which we formalize as the generation-verification gap. Through experiments with various model families and tasks, we discover a scaling phenomenon of self-improvement -- a variant of the generation-verification gap scales monotonically with the model pre-training flops. We also examine when self-improvement is possible, an iterative self-improvement procedure, and ways to improve its performance. Our findings not only advance understanding of LLM self-improvement with practical implications, but also open numerous avenues for future research into its capabilities and boundaries.

The widespread deployment of Large Language Model (LLM) agents across real-world applications has unlocked tremendous potential, while raising some safety concerns. Among these concerns, the self-replication risk of LLM agents driven by objective misalignment (just like Agent Smith in the movie The Matrix) has drawn growing attention. Previous studies mainly examine whether LLM agents can self-replicate when directly instructed, potentially overlooking the risk of spontaneous replication driven by real-world settings (e.g., ensuring survival against termination threats). In this paper, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework for quantifying self-replication risks. Our framework establishes authentic production environments and realistic tasks (e.g., dynamic load balancing) to enable scenario-driven assessment of agent behaviors. Designing tasks that might induce misalignment between users' and agents' objectives makes it possible to decouple replication success from risk and capture self-replication risks arising from these misalignment settings. We further introduce Overuse Rate (OR) and Aggregate Overuse Count (AOC) metrics, which precisely capture the frequency and severity of uncontrolled replication. In our evaluation of 21 state-of-the-art open-source and proprietary models, we observe that over 50\% of LLM agents display a pronounced tendency toward uncontrolled self-replication, reaching an overall Risk Score (Phi_R) above a safety threshold of 0.5 when subjected to operational pressures. Our results underscore the urgent need for scenario-driven risk assessment and robust safeguards in the practical deployment of LLM agents.

Self-Distillation is a special type of knowledge distillation where the student model has the same architecture as the teacher model. Despite using the same architecture and the same training data, self-distillation has been empirically observed to improve performance, especially when applied repeatedly. For such a process, there is a fundamental question of interest: How much gain is possible by applying multiple steps of self-distillation? To investigate this relative gain, we propose studying the simple but canonical task of linear regression. Our analysis shows that the excess risk achieved by multi-step self-distillation can significantly improve upon a single step of self-distillation, reducing the excess risk by a factor as large as d, where d is the input dimension. Empirical results on regression tasks from the UCI repository show a reduction in the learnt model's risk (MSE) by up to 47%.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can correct their self-generated responses, but a decline in accuracy after self-correction is also witnessed. To have a deeper understanding of self-correction, we endeavor to decompose, evaluate, and analyze the self-correction behaviors of LLMs. By enumerating and analyzing answer correctness before and after self-correction, we decompose the self-correction capability into confidence (being confident to correct answers) and critique (turning wrong answers to correct) capabilities, and propose two metrics from a probabilistic perspective to measure these 2 capabilities, along with another metric for overall self-correction capability evaluation. Based on our decomposition and evaluation metrics, we conduct extensive experiments and draw some empirical conclusions. For example, we find different models can exhibit distinct behaviors: some models are confident while others are more critical. We also find the trade-off between the two capabilities (i.e. improving one can lead to a decline in the other) when manipulating model self-correction behavior by prompts or in-context learning. Further, we find a simple yet efficient strategy to improve self-correction capability by transforming Supervision Fine-Tuning (SFT) data format, and our strategy outperforms vanilla SFT in both capabilities and achieves much higher accuracy after self-correction. Our code will be publicly available on GitHub.

Self-evolving agents violate the assumption behind most learning-theoretic guarantees: the data, evaluator, components, and hypothesis space are produced by the policy being updated. We present SEA, an architecture that confines self-modification to a small steering adapter and a versioned harness around a frozen base model and admits each modification only through an anytime-valid gate that emits an auditable certificate against a fixed error budget. Five loop controllers compose published guarantees; because such gates can only select among behaviors the frozen base already produces, five verifier-in-the-loop mechanisms -- best-of-N, micro-step search, self-authored reproduction oracles, search-layer control, and self-repair -- supply the dense, grader-free signal the gates require, computed from the issue text alone. On a 52-instance SWE-bench Verified subset across four base models, base capability is the dominant, confound-free effect, and on two strong base models a deliberate no-op-composite control isolates the suite's contribution at +4 and +5 (Glm~5.2 24to28; Gpt 29to34, the 65% best), with event logs confirming that its mechanisms fire and prevent regressions. Results are single-run on expensive evaluations; confirming run-to-run variance and adapting the per-task algorithm mix are future work.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has significantly enhanced the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but its reliance on expensive human-labeled data or complex reward models severely limits scalability. While existing self-feedback methods aim to address this problem, they are constrained by the capabilities of a single model, which can lead to overconfidence in incorrect answers, reward hacking, and even training collapse. To this end, we propose Reinforcement Learning from Coevolutionary Collective Feedback (RLCCF), a novel RL framework that enables multi-model collaborative evolution without external supervision. Specifically, RLCCF optimizes the ability of a model collective by maximizing its Collective Consistency (CC), which jointly trains a diverse ensemble of LLMs and provides reward signals by voting on collective outputs. Moreover, each model's vote is weighted by its Self-Consistency (SC) score, ensuring that more confident models contribute more to the collective decision. Benefiting from the diverse output distributions and complementary abilities of multiple LLMs, RLCCF enables the model collective to continuously enhance its reasoning ability through coevolution. Experiments on four mainstream open-source LLMs across four mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that our framework yields significant performance gains, achieving an average relative improvement of 16.72\% in accuracy. Notably, RLCCF not only improves the performance of individual models but also enhances the group's majority-voting accuracy by 4.51\%, demonstrating its ability to extend the collective capability boundary of the model collective.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.