Daily Papers

Cross-assignment of directional wave spectra is a critical task in wave data assimilation. Traditionally, most methods rely on two-parameter spectral distances or energy ranking approaches, which often fail to account for the complexities of the wave field, leading to inaccuracies. To address these limitations, we propose the Controlled Four-Parameter Method (C4PM), which independently considers four integrated wave parameters. This method enhances the accuracy and robustness of cross-assignment by offering flexibility in assigning weights and controls to each wave parameter. We compare C4PM with a two-parameter spectral distance method using data from two buoys moored 13 km apart in deep water. Although both methods produce negligible bias and high correlation, C4PM demonstrates superior performance by preventing the occurrence of outliers and achieving a lower root mean square error across all parameters. The negligible computational cost and customization make C4PM a valuable tool for wave data assimilation, improving the reliability of forecasts and model validations.

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the time-evolving state of a dynamical system by integrating model predictions and noisy observations. It is commonly formulated as Bayesian filtering, but classical filters often struggle with accuracy or computational feasibility in high dimensions. Recently, score-based generative models have emerged as a scalable approach for high-dimensional data assimilation, enabling accurate modeling and sampling of complex distributions. However, existing score-based filters often specify the forward process independently of the data assimilation. As a result, the measurement-update step depends on heuristic approximations of the likelihood score, which can accumulate errors and degrade performance over time. Here, we propose a measurement-aware score-based filter (MASF) that defines a measurement-aware forward process directly from the measurement equation. This construction makes the likelihood score analytically tractable: for linear measurements, we derive the exact likelihood score and combine it with a learned prior score to obtain the posterior score. Numerical experiments covering a range of settings, including high-dimensional datasets, demonstrate improved accuracy and stability over existing score-based filters.

Data assimilation (DA), as an indispensable component within contemporary Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, plays a crucial role in generating the analysis that significantly impacts forecast performance. Nevertheless, the development of an efficient DA system poses significant challenges, particularly in establishing intricate relationships between the background data and the vast amount of multi-source observation data within limited time windows in operational settings. To address these challenges, researchers design complex pre-processing methods for each observation type, leveraging approximate modeling and the power of super-computing clusters to expedite solutions. The emergence of deep learning (DL) models has been a game-changer, offering unified multi-modal modeling, enhanced nonlinear representation capabilities, and superior parallelization. These advantages have spurred efforts to integrate DL models into various domains of weather modeling. Remarkably, DL models have shown promise in matching, even surpassing, the forecast accuracy of leading operational NWP models worldwide. This success motivates the exploration of DL-based DA frameworks tailored for weather forecasting models. In this study, we introduces FuxiDA, a generalized DL-based DA framework for assimilating satellite observations. By assimilating data from Advanced Geosynchronous Radiation Imager (AGRI) aboard Fengyun-4B, FuXi-DA consistently mitigates analysis errors and significantly improves forecast performance. Furthermore, through a series of single-observation experiments, Fuxi-DA has been validated against established atmospheric physics, demonstrating its consistency and reliability.

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a critical role in atmospheric science by reconstructing spatially continous estimates of the system state, which serves as initial conditions for scientific analysis. While recent advances in diffusion models have shown great potential for DA tasks, most existing approaches remain purely data-driven and often overlook the physical laws that govern complex atmospheric dynamics. As a result, they may yield physically inconsistent reconstructions that impair downstream applications. To overcome this limitation, we propose PhyDA, a physics-guided diffusion framework designed to ensure physical coherence in atmospheric data assimilation. PhyDA introduces two key components: (1) a Physically Regularized Diffusion Objective that integrates physical constraints into the training process by penalizing deviations from known physical laws expressed as partial differential equations, and (2) a Virtual Reconstruction Encoder that bridges observational sparsity for structured latent representations, further enhancing the model's ability to infer complete and physically coherent states. Experiments on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset demonstrate that PhyDA achieves superior accuracy and better physical plausibility compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Our results emphasize the importance of combining generative modeling with domain-specific physical knowledge and show that PhyDA offers a promising direction for improving real-world data assimilation systems.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

AI weather models now rival leading numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems in medium-range skill. However, almost all still rely on NWP data assimilation (DA) to provide initial conditions, tying them to expensive infrastructure and limiting the practical speed and accuracy gains of ML. More recently, ML-based DA systems have been proposed, which are often trained and evaluated end-to-end with a forecast model, making it difficult to assess the quality of their analysis fields. We introduce HealDA, a global ML-based DA system that maps a short window of satellite and conventional observations directly to a 1° atmospheric state on the HEALPix grid, using a smaller sensor suite than operational NWP and no background forecast at runtime. We treat HealDA strictly as a DA module: its analyses are used to initialize off-the-shelf ML forecast models without any fine-tuning of either. For a variety of off-the-shelf ML forecast models, including FourCastNet3 (FCN3), Aurora, and FengWu, HealDA-initialized forecasts lose less than one day of effective lead time when scored against ERA5. HealDA-initialized FCN3 ensembles similarly trail those of the ECMWF IFS ENS system by < 24 h. We find that forecast error growth in these models i unchanged from HealDA initialization, and the skill gap primarily arises from the larger initial error of the HealDA analysis. Spectral analysis reveals that this stems from overfitting to the large scales and upper-tropospheric fields. We also demonstrate that small changes in the verification setup can shift apparent skill by 12--24h, underscoring the need for consistent scoring. Taken together, these results clarify the current performance of ML-based DA systems and show that a relatively simple, background-free network can already provide initial conditions that are usable by state-of-the-art ML forecast models with only modest loss in medium-range skill.

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Turbulence is a central testbed for machine learning on physical dynamics because its governing laws are known exactly. However, most existing studies remain in 2D, while 3D turbulence has fundamentally different physics and is far more costly to simulate. Existing 3D resources also typically provide only one realization per configuration, making it difficult to distinguish learning the dynamics from fitting the statistics of a single flow. In this paper, we introduce TIDE (Turbulent Incompressible DNS Ensembles), a 256^3 DNS corpus and benchmark for 3D incompressible turbulence, with 15 configurations on eight controlled axes, independent ensembles, pressure fields, and equation-level verification. The benchmark includes five tasks, standardized learned baselines, controlled generalization splits, and physical-fidelity metrics alongside pointwise error. Across the main forecasting configurations, current learned models barely outperform persistence and still make about twice the error of a spectral solver given the true equations. Moreover, lower pointwise error can coincide with severely distorted small-scale dynamics, showing that accuracy alone does not ensure physical fidelity. Generalization results further show that most regime shifts reflect limited training coverage, whereas forced-to-decay transfer exposes a missing conditioning variable: operators trained under forcing continue to predict driven evolution when the external drive is removed. Closing these accuracy, fidelity, and conditioning gaps is the central open problem made measurable by TIDE.

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

The leading operational Global Ocean Forecasting Systems (GOFSs) use physics-driven numerical forecasting models that solve the partial differential equations with expensive computation. Recently, specifically in atmosphere weather forecasting, data-driven models have demonstrated significant potential for speeding up environmental forecasting by orders of magnitude, but there is still no data-driven GOFS that matches the forecasting accuracy of the numerical GOFSs. In this paper, we propose the first data-driven 1/12° resolution global ocean eddy-resolving forecasting model named XiHe, which is established from the 25-year France Mercator Ocean International's daily GLORYS12 reanalysis data. XiHe is a hierarchical transformer-based framework coupled with two special designs. One is the land-ocean mask mechanism for focusing exclusively on the global ocean circulation. The other is the ocean-specific block for effectively capturing both local ocean information and global teleconnection. Extensive experiments are conducted under satellite observations, in situ observations, and the IV-TT Class 4 evaluation framework of the world's leading operational GOFSs from January 2019 to December 2020. The results demonstrate that XiHe achieves stronger forecast performance in all testing variables than existing leading operational numerical GOFSs including Mercator Ocean Physical SYstem (PSY4), Global Ice Ocean Prediction System (GIOPS), BLUElinK OceanMAPS (BLK), and Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). Particularly, the accuracy of ocean current forecasting of XiHe out to 60 days is even better than that of PSY4 in just 10 days. Additionally, XiHe is able to forecast the large-scale circulation and the mesoscale eddies. Furthermore, it can make a 10-day forecast in only 0.35 seconds, which accelerates the forecast speed by thousands of times compared to the traditional numerical GOFSs.

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

Data-driven, deep-learning modeling frameworks have been recently developed for forecasting time series data. Such machine learning models may be useful in multiple domains including the atmospheric and oceanic ones, and in general, the larger fluids community. The present work investigates the possible effectiveness of such deep neural operator models for reproducing and predicting classic fluid flows and simulations of realistic ocean dynamics. We first briefly evaluate the capabilities of such deep neural operator models when trained on a simulated two-dimensional fluid flow past a cylinder. We then investigate their application to forecasting ocean surface circulation in the Middle Atlantic Bight and Massachusetts Bay, learning from high-resolution data-assimilative simulations employed for real sea experiments. We confirm that trained deep neural operator models are capable of predicting idealized periodic eddy shedding. For realistic ocean surface flows and our preliminary study, they can predict several of the features and show some skill, providing potential for future research and applications.

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.

We present a method for parametrizing sub-grid processes in the Shallow Water equations. We define coarse variables and local spatial averages and use a feed-forward neural network to learn sub-grid fluxes. Our method results in a local parametrization that uses a four-point computational stencil, which has several advantages over globally coupled parametrizations. We demonstrate numerically that our method improves energy balance in long-term turbulent simulations and also accurately reproduces individual solutions. The neural network parametrization can be easily combined with flux limiting to reduce oscillations near shocks. More importantly, our method provides reliable parametrizations, even in dynamical regimes that are not included in the training data.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Surface wave dispersion curve inversion plays a critical role in both shallow resource exploration and deep geological studies, yet it remains hindered by sensitivity to initial models and low computational efficiency. Recently, data-driven deep learning methods, inspired by advances in computer vision, have shown promising potential to address these challenges. However, the lack of large-scale, diverse benchmark datasets remains a major obstacle to their development and evaluation. To bridge this gap, we present OpenSWI, a comprehensive benchmark dataset generated through the Surface Wave Inversion Dataset Preparation (SWIDP) pipeline. OpenSWI includes two synthetic datasets tailored to different research scales and scenarios, OpenSWI-shallow and OpenSWI-deep, and an AI-ready real-world dataset for generalization evaluation, OpenSWI-real. OpenSWI-shallow, derived from the 2-D OpenFWI geological model dataset, contains over 22 million 1-D velocity profiles paired with fundamental-mode phase and group velocity dispersion curves, spanning a wide range of shallow geological structures (e.g., flat layers, faults, folds, realistic stratigraphy). OpenSWI-deep, built from 14 global and regional 3-D geological models, comprises 1.26 million high-fidelity 1-D velocity-dispersion pairs for deep-Earth studies. OpenSWI-real, compiled from open-source projects, contains two sets of observed dispersion curves with corresponding reference models, serving as a benchmark for evaluating model generalization. To demonstrate utility, we trained models on OpenSWI-shallow and -deep and evaluated them on OpenSWI-real, demonstrating strong agreement between predictions and references, which confirms the diversity and representativeness of the dataset. To advance intelligent surface wave inversion, we release the SWIDP toolbox, OpenSWI datasets, and trained models for the research community.

Accurate ocean forecasting is crucial in different areas ranging from science to decision making. Recent advancements in data-driven models have shown significant promise, particularly in weather forecasting community, but yet no data-driven approaches have matched the accuracy and the scalability of traditional global ocean forecasting systems that rely on physics-driven numerical models and can be very computationally expensive, depending on their spatial resolution or complexity. Here, we introduce GLONET, a global ocean neural network-based forecasting system, developed by Mercator Ocean International. GLONET is trained on the global Mercator Ocean physical reanalysis GLORYS12 to integrate physics-based principles through neural operators and networks, which dynamically capture local-global interactions within a unified, scalable framework, ensuring high small-scale accuracy and efficient dynamics. GLONET's performance is assessed and benchmarked against two other forecasting systems: the global Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting 1/12 high-resolution physical system GLO12 and a recent neural-based system also trained from GLORYS12. A series of comprehensive validation metrics is proposed, specifically tailored for neural network-based ocean forecasting systems, which extend beyond traditional point-wise error assessments that can introduce bias towards neural networks optimized primarily to minimize such metrics. The preliminary evaluation of GLONET shows promising results, for temperature, sea surface height, salinity and ocean currents. GLONET's experimental daily forecast are accessible through the European Digital Twin Ocean platform EDITO.

AI emulators for forecasting have emerged as powerful tools that can outperform conventional numerical predictions. The next frontier is to build emulators for long-term climate projections with robust skill across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, a particularly important goal for the ocean. Our work builds a skillful global emulator of the ocean component of a state-of-the-art climate model. We emulate key ocean variables, sea surface height, horizontal velocities, temperature, and salinity, across their full depth. We use a modified ConvNeXt UNet architecture trained on multidepth levels of ocean data. We show that the ocean emulator - Samudra - which exhibits no drift relative to the truth, can reproduce the depth structure of ocean variables and their interannual variability. Samudra is stable for centuries and 150 times faster than the original ocean model. Samudra struggles to capture the correct magnitude of the forcing trends and simultaneously remains stable, requiring further work.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Reconstructing subsurface ocean dynamics, such as vertical velocity fields, from incomplete surface observations poses a critical challenge in Earth science, a field long hampered by the lack of standardized, analysis-ready benchmarks. To systematically address this issue and catalyze research, we first build and release KD48, a high-resolution ocean dynamics benchmark derived from petascale simulations and curated with expert-driven denoising. Building on this benchmark, we introduce VISION, a novel reconstruction paradigm based on Dynamic Prompting designed to tackle the core problem of missing data in real-world observations. The essence of VISION lies in its ability to generate a visual prompt on-the-fly from any available subset of observations, which encodes both data availability and the ocean's physical state. More importantly, we design a State-conditioned Prompting module that efficiently injects this prompt into a universal backbone, endowed with geometry- and scale-aware operators, to guide its adaptive adjustment of computational strategies. This mechanism enables VISION to precisely handle the challenges posed by varying input combinations. Extensive experiments on the KD48 benchmark demonstrate that VISION not only substantially outperforms state-of-the-art models but also exhibits strong generalization under extreme data missing scenarios. By providing a high-quality benchmark and a robust model, our work establishes a solid infrastructure for ocean science research under data uncertainty. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/VISION.

Real-time tsunami early warning relies on distributed sensor networks to infer seismic sources and seafloor motion. Optimizing these networks via Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) is exceptionally challenging for systems governed by hyperbolic partial differential equations, which lack the spectral decay required by standard low-rank approximations. We present a scalable Bayesian OED framework for linear time-invariant systems. By reformulating the inverse problem in the data space, we transform OED into dense matrix subset selection. We propose a multi-GPU, Schur-complement-update-based, greedy algorithm that solves the OED problem using a pipelined approach that fully overlaps I/O with GPU computations. Our framework achieves near-perfect weak and strong scaling across hundreds of GPUs on Perlmutter and Frontier. Applied to the 2025 Gordon Bell Prize-winning digital twin for tsunami forecasting in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, we optimize a 175-sensor network, minimizing the uncertainty of a parameter field with over one billion degrees of freedom.

We introduce a formal active learning methodology for guiding the placement of Lagrangian observers to infer time-dependent vector fields -- a key task in oceanography, marine science, and ocean engineering -- using a physics-informed spatio-temporal Gaussian process surrogate model. The majority of existing placement campaigns either follow standard `space-filling' designs or relatively ad-hoc expert opinions. A key challenge to applying principled active learning in this setting is that Lagrangian observers are continuously advected through the vector field, so they make measurements at different locations and times. It is, therefore, important to consider the likely future trajectories of placed observers to account for the utility of candidate placement locations. To this end, we present BALLAST: Bayesian Active Learning with Look-ahead Amendment for Sea-drifter Trajectories. We observe noticeable benefits of BALLAST-aided sequential observer placement strategies on both synthetic and high-fidelity ocean current models. In addition, we developed a novel GP inference method -- the Vanilla SPDE Exchange (VaSE) -- to boost the GP posterior sampling efficiency, which is also of independent interest.

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 EDA or operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. Their spatial resolution is also considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly increased spatial resolution of 0.25\textdegree, incorporating 5 atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the CRPS and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution, facilitating the incorporation of flow-dependent perturbations in both initial conditions and forecast. This innovative approach makes FuXi-ENS an advancement over the traditional ones that use L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models for ensemble weather forecasting. Results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, a world leading NWP model, in the CRPS of 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations. This achievement underscores the potential of the FuXi-ENS model to enhance ensemble weather forecasts, offering a promising direction for further development in this field.

Reliably reconstructing physical fields from sparse sensor data is a challenge that frequently arises in many scientific domains. In practice, the process generating the data often is not understood to sufficient accuracy. Therefore, there is a growing interest in using the deep neural network route to address the problem. This work presents a novel approach that learns a continuous representation of the physical field using implicit neural representations (INRs). Specifically, after factorizing spatiotemporal variability into spatial and temporal components using the separation of variables technique, the method learns relevant basis functions from sparsely sampled irregular data points to develop a continuous representation of the data. In experimental evaluations, the proposed model outperforms recent INR methods, offering superior reconstruction quality on simulation data from a state-of-the-art climate model and a second dataset that comprises ultra-high resolution satellite-based sea surface temperature fields.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

The software package Volna-OP2 is a robust and efficient code capable of simulating the complete life cycle of a tsunami whilst harnessing the latest High Performance Computing (HPC) architectures. In this paper, a comprehensive error analysis and scalability study of the GPU version of the code is presented. A novel decomposition of the numerical errors into the dispersion and dissipation components is explored. Most tsunami codes exhibit amplitude smearing and/or phase lagging/leading, so the decomposition shown here is a new approach and novel tool for explaining these occurrences. It is the first time that the errors of a tsunami code have been assessed in this manner. To date, Volna-OP2 has been widely used by the tsunami modelling community. In particular its computational efficiency has allowed various sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification studies. Due to the number of simulations required, there is always a trade-off between accuracy and runtime when carrying out these statistical studies. The analysis presented in this paper will guide the user towards an acceptable level of accuracy within a given runtime.

Neural operator surrogates (NO) approximate PDE solutions orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers, but suffer from spectral bias: high-frequency content is systematically attenuated, limiting reliability where fine-scale structure matters. Sparse sensor measurements of the field are often available too, offering pointwise accuracy without spectral distortion but covering only a small fraction of the domain. We address this by treating NO predictions as auxiliary observations in a diffusion posterior sampling framework. Our method, FreqNO-DPS (https://github.com/niccoloperrone/FreqNO-DPS), combines an unconditional score-based diffusion prior, trained on high-fidelity simulations, with diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) conditioned on sparse observations and guided by a frozen neural operator. Naive integration reintroduces the surrogate's spectral bias; we resolve this with a closed-form, spectrally shaped guidance score that weights the surrogate by its frequency-dependent accuracy and needs no denoiser backpropagation. A distribution-free analysis bounds the approximation error across the frequency-diffusion-time plane and shows the guidance's frequency dependence is preserved regardless of distributional assumptions. On 3D elastic wavefield prediction at 5% and 2% sensor coverage, the method reaches near-zero spectral bias across all bands, where both the surrogate and sensor-only DPS show systematic high-frequency attenuation. Isotropic guidance, the natural baseline, improves pointwise accuracy but carries the bias into the posterior nearly intact, confirming that frequency-dependent calibration is essential, not merely beneficial. The framework needs only paired surrogate/reference data and exploits no problem-specific structure beyond the residual's approximate spectral diagonality, verifiable for new surrogates via the coherence diagnostic we provide.

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation is critically important for marine research, yet remains challenging due to its substantial thermal inertia and extended time delay. Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated significant advancements in simulation accuracy and computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical methods. Nevertheless, a significant limitation of current ML models for S2S ocean simulation is their inadequate incorporation of physical consistency and the slow-changing properties of the ocean system. In this work, we propose a neural ocean model (NeuralOM) for S2S ocean simulation with a multi-scale interactive graph neural network to emulate diverse physical phenomena associated with ocean systems effectively. Specifically, we propose a multi-stage framework tailored to model the ocean's slowly changing nature. Additionally, we introduce a multi-scale interactive messaging module to capture complex dynamical behaviors, such as gradient changes and multiplicative coupling relationships inherent in ocean dynamics. Extensive experimental evaluations confirm that our proposed NeuralOM outperforms state-of-the-art models in S2S and extreme event simulation. The codes are available at https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.

We demonstrate several techniques to encourage practical uses of neural networks for fluid flow estimation. In the present paper, three perspectives which are remaining challenges for applications of machine learning to fluid dynamics are considered: 1. interpretability of machine-learned results, 2. bulking out of training data, and 3. generalizability of neural networks. For the interpretability, we first demonstrate two methods to observe the internal procedure of neural networks, i.e., visualization of hidden layers and application of gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM), applied to canonical fluid flow estimation problems -- (1) drag coefficient estimation of a cylinder wake and (2) velocity estimation from particle images. It is exemplified that both approaches can successfully tell us evidences of the great capability of machine learning-based estimations. We then utilize some techniques to bulk out training data for super-resolution analysis and temporal prediction for cylinder wake and NOAA sea surface temperature data to demonstrate that sufficient training of neural networks with limited amount of training data can be achieved for fluid flow problems. The generalizability of machine learning model is also discussed by accounting for the perspectives of inter/extrapolation of training data, considering super-resolution of wakes behind two parallel cylinders. We find that various flow patterns generated by complex interaction between two cylinders can be reconstructed well, even for the test configurations regarding the distance factor. The present paper can be a significant step toward practical uses of neural networks for both laminar and turbulent flow problems.

Current deep learning models for dynamics forecasting struggle with generalization. They can only forecast in a specific domain and fail when applied to systems with different parameters, external forces, or boundary conditions. We propose a model-based meta-learning method called DyAd which can generalize across heterogeneous domains by partitioning them into different tasks. DyAd has two parts: an encoder which infers the time-invariant hidden features of the task with weak supervision, and a forecaster which learns the shared dynamics of the entire domain. The encoder adapts and controls the forecaster during inference using adaptive instance normalization and adaptive padding. Theoretically, we prove that the generalization error of such procedure is related to the task relatedness in the source domain, as well as the domain differences between source and target. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on both turbulent flow and real-world ocean data forecasting tasks.

Foundations of a new projection-based model reduction approach for convection dominated nonlinear fluid flows are summarized. In this method the evolution of the flow is approximated in the Lagrangian frame of reference. Global basis functions are used to approximate both the state and the position of the Lagrangian computational domain. It is demonstrated that in this framework, certain wave-like solutions exhibit low-rank structure and thus, can be efficiently compressed using relatively few global basis. The proposed approach is successfully demonstrated for the reduction of several simple but representative problems.

This paper establishes Lipschitz stability for the simultaneous recovery of a variable density coefficient and the initial displacement in a damped biharmonic wave equation. The data consist of the boundary Cauchy data for the Laplacian of the solution, \(Δu |_{\partial Ω}\) and \( \partial_{n}(Δu)|_{\partial Ω}.\) We first prove that the associated system operator generates a contraction semigroup, which ensures the well-posedness of the forward problem. A key observability inequality is then derived via multiplier techniques. Building on this foundation, explicit stability estimates for the inverse problem are obtained. These estimates demonstrate that the biharmonic structure inherently enhances the stability of parameter identification, with the stability constants exhibiting an explicit dependence on the damping coefficient via the factor \( (1 + γ)^{1/2} \). This work provides a rigorous theoretical basis for applications in non-destructive testing and dynamic inversion.

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are essential to climate science but computationally expensive, limiting ensemble size and forcing scenarios. Neural emulators promise orders-of-magnitude speedups, yet existing ocean emulators have not combined fine spatial resolution with multi-year autoregressive rollouts. Samudra, the first autoregressive neural ocean emulator to produce multi-decade global rollouts, is limited to 1^circ resolution and exhibits two long-horizon failure modes: variance collapse, the loss of temporal variability, and imprinting artifacts, in which velocity patterns leak into deep-ocean fields. We present Samudra 2, which introduces a wider U-Net backbone with modified ConvNeXt-style blocks and a reduced block-internal expansion factor, together with a dynamic loss that reweights output channels according to their prediction errors, strengthening gradients for slow-evolving deep-ocean fields. At 1^circ, Samudra 2 increases upper-ocean global-mean temperature R^2 from 0.56 to 0.87 and reduces deep-ocean temperature error by roughly sevenfold. The same architecture scales to 1/2^circ and 1/4^circ over approximately 8-year autoregressive rollouts, recovering mesoscale eddies and sharp western boundary currents. Running on a single GPU, Samudra 2 enables larger ensembles for sea-level projections, ocean heat uptake, and climate variability studies. We provide code, documentation, and benchmark resources at https://openathena.ai/Ocean_Emulator/.

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model simultaneously captures these amplitude-modulated seasonal cycles along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which naturally emerges as an intrinsic feature of the system rather than a separate phenomenon. Using sixteen-dimensional regression based on four spatially distributed time series per variable, the model delivers unprecedented forecast accuracy for both interannual amplitude modulations and PDO evolution, maintaining skill beyond 36 months -- a substantial improvement over current operational and research forecasts, including machine learning methods. Predictions initialized in 2024 project that the PDO will remain in its negative phase through late 2026, implying reduced likelihood of severe marine heatwaves in the eastern North Pacific during this period. These findings have direct implications for regional climate impacts, including storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and marine ecosystem health. By treating seasonal and interannual variability as coupled rather than independent processes, this framework advances our understanding of North Pacific climate dynamics and provides a powerful tool for stakeholders managing climate-sensitive resources and planning adaptation strategies in regions strongly influenced by North Pacific conditions.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

We present an open-source Python implementation of an idealized high-order pseudo-spectral solver for the one-dimensional nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation (NLSE). The solver combines Fourier spectral spatial discretization with an adaptive eighth-order Dormand-Prince time integration scheme to achieve machine-precision conservation of mass and near-perfect preservation of momentum and energy for smooth solutions. The implementation accurately reproduces fundamental NLSE phenomena including soliton collisions with analytically predicted phase shifts, Akhmediev breather dynamics, and the development of modulation instability from noisy initial conditions. Four canonical test cases validate the numerical scheme: single soliton propagation, two-soliton elastic collision, breather evolution, and noise-seeded modulation instability. The solver employs a 2/3 dealiasing rule with exponential filtering to prevent aliasing errors from the cubic nonlinearity. Statistical analysis using Shannon, R\'enyi, and Tsallis entropies quantifies the spatio-temporal complexity of solutions, while phase space representations reveal the underlying coherence structure. The implementation prioritizes code transparency and educational accessibility over computational performance, providing a valuable pedagogical tool for exploring nonlinear wave dynamics. Complete source code, documentation, and example configurations are freely available, enabling reproducible computational experiments across diverse physical contexts where the NLSE governs wave evolution, including nonlinear optics, Bose-Einstein condensates, and ocean surface waves.

Global climate models parameterize a range of atmospheric-oceanic processes like gravity waves, clouds, moist convection, and turbulence that cannot be sufficiently resolved. These subgrid-scale closures for unresolved processes are a leading source of model uncertainty. Here, we present a new approach to developing machine learning parameterizations of small-scale climate processes by fine-tuning a pre-trained AI foundation model (FM). FMs are largely unexplored in climate research. A pre-trained encoder-decoder from a 2.3 billion parameter FM (NASA and IBM Research's Prithvi WxC) -- which contains a latent probabilistic representation of atmospheric evolution -- is fine-tuned (or reused) to create a deep learning parameterization for atmospheric gravity waves (GWs). The parameterization captures GW effects for a coarse-resolution climate model by learning the fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis with 10 times finer resolution. A comparison of monthly averages and instantaneous evolution with a machine learning model baseline (an Attention U-Net) reveals superior predictive performance of the FM parameterization throughout the atmosphere, even in regions excluded from pre-training. This performance boost is quantified using the Hellinger distance, which is 0.11 for the baseline and 0.06 for the fine-tuned model. Our findings emphasize the versatility and reusability of FMs, which could be used to accomplish a range of atmosphere- and climate-related applications, leading the way for the creation of observations-driven and physically accurate parameterizations for more earth-system processes.

Reduced-order modeling (ROM) of time-dependent and parameterized differential equations aims to accelerate the simulation of complex high-dimensional systems by learning a compact latent manifold representation that captures the characteristics of the solution fields and their time-dependent dynamics. Although high-fidelity numerical solvers generate the training datasets, they have thus far been excluded from the training process, causing the learned latent dynamics to drift away from the discretized governing physics. This mismatch often limits generalization and forecasting capabilities. In this work, we propose Physics-informed ROM (Φ-ROM) by incorporating differentiable PDE solvers into the training procedure. Specifically, the latent space dynamics and its dependence on PDE parameters are shaped directly by the governing physics encoded in the solver, ensuring a strong correspondence between the full and reduced systems. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art data-driven ROMs and other physics-informed strategies by accurately generalizing to new dynamics arising from unseen parameters, enabling long-term forecasting beyond the training horizon, maintaining continuity in both time and space, and reducing the data cost. Furthermore, Φ-ROM learns to recover and forecast the solution fields even when trained or evaluated with sparse and irregular observations of the fields, providing a flexible framework for field reconstruction and data assimilation. We demonstrate the framework's robustness across various PDE solvers and highlight its broad applicability by providing an open-source JAX implementation that is readily extensible to other PDE systems and differentiable solvers, available at https://phi-rom.github.io.

Data-driven modeling based on machine learning (ML) is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. Rapid progress has been made with impressive results for some applications. The uptake of ML methods could be a game-changer for the incremental progress in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) known as the 'quiet revolution' of weather forecasting. The computational cost of running a forecast with standard NWP systems greatly hinders the improvements that can be made from increasing model resolution and ensemble sizes. An emerging new generation of ML models, developed using high-quality reanalysis datasets like ERA5 for training, allow forecasts that require much lower computational costs and that are highly-competitive in terms of accuracy. Here, we compare for the first time ML-generated forecasts with standard NWP-based forecasts in an operational-like context, initialized from the same initial conditions. Focusing on deterministic forecasts, we apply common forecast verification tools to assess to what extent a data-driven forecast produced with one of the recently developed ML models (PanguWeather) matches the quality and attributes of a forecast from one of the leading global NWP systems (the ECMWF IFS). The results are very promising, with comparable skill for both global metrics and extreme events, when verified against both the operational analysis and synoptic observations. Increasing forecast smoothness and bias drift with forecast lead time are identified as current drawbacks of ML-based forecasts. A new NWP paradigm is emerging relying on inference from ML models and state-of-the-art analysis and reanalysis datasets for forecast initialization and model training.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). However, standard MLP-based PINNs often fail to converge when dealing with complex initial value problems, leading to solutions that violate causality and suffer from a spectral bias towards low-frequency components. To address these issues, we introduce NeuSA (Neuro-Spectral Architectures), a novel class of PINNs inspired by classical spectral methods, designed to solve linear and nonlinear PDEs with variable coefficients. NeuSA learns a projection of the underlying PDE onto a spectral basis, leading to a finite-dimensional representation of the dynamics which is then integrated with an adapted Neural ODE (NODE). This allows us to overcome spectral bias, by leveraging the high-frequency components enabled by the spectral representation; to enforce causality, by inheriting the causal structure of NODEs, and to start training near the target solution, by means of an initialization scheme based on classical methods. We validate NeuSA on canonical benchmarks for linear and nonlinear wave equations, demonstrating strong performance as compared to other architectures, with faster convergence, improved temporal consistency and superior predictive accuracy. Code and pretrained models are available in https://github.com/arthur-bizzi/neusa.

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

The proposed method aims to approximate a solution of a fluid-fluid interaction problem in case of low viscosities. The nonlinear interface condition on the joint boundary allows for this problem to be viewed as a simplified version of the atmosphere-ocean coupling. Thus, the proposed method should be viewed as potentially applicable to air-sea coupled flows in turbulent regime. The method consists of two key ingredients. The geometric averaging approach is used for efficient and stable decoupling of the problem, which would allow for the usage of preexisting codes for the air and sea domain separately, as "black boxes". This is combined with the variational multiscale stabilization technique for treating flows at high Reynolds numbers. We prove the stability and accuracy of the method and provide several numerical tests to assess both the quantitative and qualitative features of the computed solution.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

Surrogate modeling of wave propagation and scattering (i.e. the wave speed and source to wave field map) in heterogeneous media has significant potential in applications such as seismic imaging and inversion. High-contrast settings, such as subsurface models with salt bodies, exhibit strong scattering and phase sensitivity that challenge existing neural operators. We propose a hybrid architecture that decomposes the scattering operator into two separate contributions: a smooth background propagation and a high-contrast scattering correction. The smooth component is learned with a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO), which produces globally coupled feature tokens encoding background wave propagation; these tokens are then passed to a vision transformer, where attention is used to model the high-contrast scattering correction dominated by strong, spatial interactions. Evaluated on high-frequency Helmholtz problems with strong contrasts, the hybrid model achieves substantially improved phase and amplitude accuracy compared to standalone FNOs or transformers, with favorable accuracy-parameter scaling.

Sonification -- the mapping of data to non-speech audio -- offers an underexplored channel for representing complex dynamical systems. We treat El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a canonical example of low-dimensional climate chaos, as a test case for culturally-situated sonification evaluated through complex systems diagnostics. Using parameter-mapping sonification of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index (1870--2024), we encode ENSO variability into two traditional Javanese gamelan pentatonic systems (pelog and slendro) across four composition strategies, then analyze the resulting audio as trajectories in a two-dimensional acoustic phase space. Recurrence-based diagnostics, convex hull geometry, and coupling analysis reveal that the sonification pipeline preserves key dynamical signatures: alternating modes produce the highest trajectory recurrence rates, echoing ENSO's quasi-periodicity; layered polyphonic modes explore the broadest phase space regions; and the two scale families induce qualitatively distinct coupling regimes between spectral brightness and energy -- predominantly anti-phase in pelog but near-independent in slendro. Phase space trajectory analysis provides a rigorous geometric framework for comparing sonification designs within a complex systems context. Perceptual validation remains necessary; we contribute the dynamical systems methodology for evaluating such mappings.

Accurate ocean modeling and coastal hazard prediction depend on high-resolution bathymetric data; yet, current worldwide datasets are too coarse for exact numerical simulations. While recent deep learning advances have improved earth observation data resolution, existing methods struggle with the unique challenges of producing detailed ocean floor maps, especially in maintaining physical structure consistency and quantifying uncertainties. This work presents a novel uncertainty-aware mechanism using spatial blocks to efficiently capture local bathymetric complexity based on block-based conformal prediction. Using the Vector Quantized Variational Autoencoder (VQ-VAE) architecture, the integration of this uncertainty quantification framework yields spatially adaptive confidence estimates while preserving topographical features via discrete latent representations. With smaller uncertainty widths in well-characterized areas and appropriately larger bounds in areas of complex seafloor structures, the block-based design adapts uncertainty estimates to local bathymetric complexity. Compared to conventional techniques, experimental results over several ocean regions show notable increases in both reconstruction quality and uncertainty estimation reliability. This framework increases the reliability of bathymetric reconstructions by preserving structural integrity while offering spatially adaptive uncertainty estimates, so opening the path for more solid climate modeling and coastal hazard assessment.

The heavy-tailed nature of precipitation intensity impedes precise precipitation nowcasting. Standard models that optimize pixel-wise losses are prone to regression-to-the-mean bias, which blurs extreme values. Existing Fourier-based methods also lack the spatial localization needed to resolve transient convective cells. To overcome these intrinsic limitations, we propose WADEPre, a wavelet-based decomposition model for extreme precipitation that transitions the modeling into the wavelet domain. By leveraging the Discrete Wavelet Transform for explicit decomposition, WADEPre employs a dual-branch architecture: an Approximation Network to model stable, low-frequency advection, isolating deterministic trends from statistical bias, and a spatially localized Detail Network to capture high-frequency stochastic convection, resolving transient singularities and preserving sharp boundaries. A subsequent Refiner module then dynamically reconstructs these decoupled multi-scale components into the final high-fidelity forecast. To address optimization instability, we introduce a multi-scale curriculum learning strategy that progressively shifts supervision from coarse scales to fine-grained details. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and Shanghai Radar datasets demonstrate that WADEPre achieves state-of-the-art performance, yielding significant improvements in capturing extreme thresholds and maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/sonderlau/WADEPre.

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

We introduce Poseidon, a foundation model for learning the solution operators of PDEs. It is based on a multiscale operator transformer, with time-conditioned layer norms that enable continuous-in-time evaluations. A novel training strategy leveraging the semi-group property of time-dependent PDEs to allow for significant scaling-up of the training data is also proposed. Poseidon is pretrained on a diverse, large scale dataset for the governing equations of fluid dynamics. It is then evaluated on a suite of 15 challenging downstream tasks that include a wide variety of PDE types and operators. We show that Poseidon exhibits excellent performance across the board by outperforming baselines significantly, both in terms of sample efficiency and accuracy. Poseidon also generalizes very well to new physics that is not seen during pretraining. Moreover, Poseidon scales with respect to model and data size, both for pretraining and for downstream tasks. Taken together, our results showcase the surprising ability of Poseidon to learn effective representations from a very small set of PDEs during pretraining in order to generalize well to unseen and unrelated PDEs downstream, demonstrating its potential as an effective, general purpose PDE foundation model. Finally, the Poseidon model as well as underlying pretraining and downstream datasets are open sourced, with code being available at https://github.com/camlab-ethz/poseidon and pretrained models and datasets at https://huggingface.co/camlab-ethz.

The Saint-Venant shallow water equations (SWE) govern depth-integrated free-surface flows arising in dam-break inundation, flood routing, tsunami runup, and estuarine tidal dynamics. Closed-form analytical solutions exist only for highly idealized Riemann configurations, making rigorously verified numerical solvers essential. This work presents amerta, an open-source Python library that solves the one-dimensional frictionless Saint-Venant system on a uniform Cartesian grid using Monotone Upstream-centered Schemes for Conservation Laws (MUSCL) reconstruction with a minmod slope limiter, the Harten-Lax-van Leer-Contact (HLLC) approximate Riemann solver, and two-stage strong-stability-preserving Runge-Kutta (SSP-RK) time integration. Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation accelerates the performance-critical kernels. The solver is verified end-to-end against the four canonical Riemann configurations: wet-bed dam break, dry-bed dam break, double rarefaction, and double shock. A six-component post-processing pipeline quantifies space-time topology, final-time error norms with empirical quantile decomposition, self-similarity collapse onto the analytical Riemann fan, integral-norm evolution, boundary-flux-corrected mass and energy diagnostics, and phase-plane analysis against analytical wave curves. The implementation conserves discrete mass to floating-point precision, satisfies discrete entropy admissibility identically, and reproduces all four analytical wave-curve geometries to within sub-centimetre accuracy in the depth-velocity phase plane. The complete source code, analytical-solution evaluators, post-processing scripts, and Network Common Data Format (NetCDF) archives are released under the MIT license.

Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) is a derivative-free, ensemble-based method for inverse and optimization problems. Its continuous-time formulation can be interpreted as an interacting particle system driven by a Kalman-type preconditioned descent direction. A well-known limitation of this dynamics is the possible premature collapse of the covariance of the ensemble, which makes the method sensitive to the initial ensemble. We introduce a second-order particle system in which the particles evolve according to an inertial dynamics. The model combines a Kalman-type relaxation force with damping, attraction towards the ensemble mean, and a short-range repulsive interaction designed to counteract ensemble collapse. The resulting dynamics can be interpreted as a heavy-ball reformulation of continuous-time EKI enriched by competing attractive and repulsive mechanisms. For linear inverse problems, we analyze the induced mean and fluctuation dynamics and identify a parameter regime in which fully collapsed configurations are linearly unstable. We further characterize asymptotic equilibria through a constrained optimality condition on the subspace retained by the limiting ensemble covariance and derive an exponential decay estimate. Numerical experiments illustrate the effect of inertia and repulsion on the ensemble dynamics and compare the proposed second-order method with first-order EKI-type

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for solving forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) by incorporating physical laws into the training process. However, the performance of PINNs is often hindered in real-world scenarios involving noisy observational data and missing physics, particularly in inverse problems. In this work, we propose an iterative multi-objective PINN ensemble Kalman filter (iPINNER) framework that improves the robustness and accuracy of PINNs in both forward and inverse problems by using the ensemble Kalman filter and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III (NSGA-III). Specifically, NSGA-III is used as a multi-objective optimizer that can generate various ensemble members of PINNs along the optimal Pareto front, while accounting the model uncertainty in the solution space. These ensemble members are then utilized within the EnKF to assimilate noisy observational data. The EnKF's analysis is subsequently used to refine the data loss component for retraining the PINNs, thereby iteratively updating their parameters. The iterative procedure generates improved solutions to the PDEs. The proposed method is tested on two benchmark problems: the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation and the time-fractional mixed diffusion-wave equation (TFMDWE). The numerical results show it outperforms standard PINNs in handling noisy data and missing physics.

This study presents the application of generative deep learning techniques to evaluate marine fog visibility nowcasting using the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence interactions in the marine atmosphere) campaign observations collected during July 2022 in the North Atlantic in the Grand Banks area and vicinity of Sable Island (SI), northeast of Canada. The measurements were collected using the Vaisala Forward Scatter Sensor model FD70 and Weather Transmitter model WXT50, and Gill R3A ultrasonic anemometer mounted on the Research Vessel Atlantic Condor. To perform nowcasting, the time series of fog visibility (Vis), wind speed, dew point depression, and relative humidity with respect to water were preprocessed to have lagged time step features. Generative nowcasting of Vis time series for lead times of 30 and 60 minutes were performed using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) regression at visibility thresholds of Vis < 1 km and < 10 km. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used as a baseline method for comparison against cGAN. At the 30 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with cGAN at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.151 km) and with XGBoost at Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 2.821 km). At the 60 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with XGBoost at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.167 km) and Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 3.508 km), but the cGAN RMSE was similar to XGBoost. Despite nowcasting Vis at 30 min being quite difficult, the ability of the cGAN model to track the variation in Vis at 1 km suggests that there is potential for generative analysis of marine fog visibility using observational meteorological parameters.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models now surpass state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems, but training and operating these models at high spatial resolution remains computationally expensive. We present a modular framework that decouples forecasting from spatial resolution by applying learned generative super-resolution as a post-processing step to coarse-resolution forecast trajectories. We formulate super-resolution as a stochastic inverse problem, using a residual formulation to preserve large-scale structure while reconstructing unresolved variability. The model is trained with flow matching exclusively on reanalysis data and is applied to global medium-range forecasts. We evaluate (i) design consistency by re-coarsening super-resolved forecasts and comparing them to the original coarse trajectories, and (ii) high-resolution forecast quality using standard ensemble verification metrics and spectral diagnostics. Results show that super-resolution preserves large-scale structure and variance after re-coarsening, introduces physically consistent small-scale variability, and achieves competitive probabilistic forecast skill at 0.25° resolution relative to an operational ensemble baseline, while requiring only a modest additional training cost compared with end-to-end high-resolution forecasting.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

During a geosteering operation the well path is intentionally adjusted in response to the new data acquired while drilling. To achieve consistent high-quality decisions, especially when drilling in complex environments, decision support systems can help cope with high volumes of data and interpretation complexities. They can assimilate the real-time measurements into a probabilistic earth model and use the updated model for decision recommendations. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have enabled a wide range of methods that redistribute computational cost from on-line to off-line calculations. In this paper, we introduce two ML techniques into the geosteering decision support framework. Firstly, a complex earth model representation is generated using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). Secondly, a commercial extra-deep electromagnetic simulator is represented using a Forward Deep Neural Network (FDNN). The numerical experiments demonstrate that the combination of the GAN and the FDNN in an ensemble randomized maximum likelihood data assimilation scheme provides real-time estimates of complex geological uncertainty. This yields reduction of geological uncertainty ahead of the drill-bit from the measurements gathered behind and around the well bore.

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

Precipitation nowcasting is critical for disaster mitigation and aviation safety. However, radar-only models frequently suffer from a lack of large-scale atmospheric context, leading to performance degradation at longer lead times. While integrating meteorological variables predicted by weather foundation models offers a potential remedy, existing architectures fail to reconcile the profound representational heterogeneities between radar imagery and meteorological data. To bridge this gap, we propose PW-FouCast, a novel frequency-domain fusion framework that leverages Pangu-Weather forecasts as spectral priors within a Fourier-based backbone. Our architecture introduces three key innovations: (i) Pangu-Weather-guided Frequency Modulation to align spectral magnitudes and phases with meteorological priors; (ii) Frequency Memory to correct phase discrepancies and preserve temporal evolution; and (iii) Inverted Frequency Attention to reconstruct high-frequency details typically lost in spectral filtering. Extensive experiments on the SEVIR and MeteoNet benchmarks demonstrate that PW-FouCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, effectively extending the reliable forecast horizon while maintaining structural fidelity. Our code is available at https://github.com/Onemissed/PW-FouCast.

This paper presents a neural surrogate approach for improving the accuracy of natural convection problems simulated with a Boussinesq flow model (incompressible flow with heat transfer). Our approach, based on Fourier neural operators, uses training data consisting of matched pairs of simulations run under the computationally cheaper yet less accurate Boussinesq flow model and a more computationally expensive and more accurate compressible flow model. In both cases, we implement our parallelized simulation codes based on an implicit monolithic mixed finite element method (FEM) approach using the open-source FEniCSx framework. Our implementations are validated against a commercial software package, COMSOL, as well as standard test problems from the literature. We include a careful discussion and analysis of data set generation and present learning results in two and three spatial dimensions. Using compressible flow results as high-fidelity reference solutions, our learning approach, with a single model evaluation per simulation, substantially improves the per-channel accuracy of Boussinesq predictions, with structural similarity (SSIM) close to unity across all flow variables and test distributions and corresponding mean-squared error reductions of one to nearly three orders of magnitude. All code and data is released as open-source.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km resolution to a region of interest, and 31 km resolution elsewhere. Based on a stochastic encoder-decoder architecture, the model is trained using a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) evaluated point-wise in real and spectral space. The spectral loss components is shown to be necessary to create fields that are spatially coherent. The model is compared to high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction forecasts from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS), showing competitive forecasts when evaluated against observations from surface weather stations. The model produced fields that are more spatially coherent than mean squared error based models and CRPS based models without the spectral component in the loss.

Accurate short-term prediction of clouds and precipitation is critical for severe weather warnings, aviation safety, and renewable energy operations. Forecasts at this timescale are provided by numerical weather models and extrapolation methods, both of which have limitations. Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models provide skillful forecasts at these scales but require significant modeling expertise and computational infrastructure, which limits their accessibility. Extrapolation-based methods are computationally lightweight but degrade rapidly beyond 1-2 hours. This presents an opportunity for data-driven forecasting directly from observations using geostationary satellites and ground-based radar, which provide high-frequency, high-resolution observations that capture mesoscale atmospheric evolution. We introduce Stormscope, a family of transformer-based generative diffusion models trained on high-resolution, multi-band geostationary satellite imagery and ground-based weather radar over the continental United States. Stormscope produces forecasts at a temporal resolution of 10 minutes and 6 kilometer spatial resolution, which are competitive with state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP models for lead times up to 6 hours. Its generative architecture enables large ensemble forecasts of explicit mesoscale dynamics for robust uncertainty quantification. Evaluated against extrapolation methods and operational mesoscale NWP models, Stormscope achieves leading performance on standard deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics across forecast horizons from 1 to 6 hours. As Stormscope relies on globally available satellite observations (and radar where available), it offers a pathway to extend skillful mesoscale forecasting to oceanic regions and countries without strong operational mesoscale modeling programs.

When solving inverse problems, it is increasingly popular to use pre-trained diffusion models as plug-and-play priors. This framework can accommodate different forward models without re-training while preserving the generative capability of diffusion models. Despite their success in many imaging inverse problems, most existing methods rely on privileged information such as derivative, pseudo-inverse, or full knowledge about the forward model. This reliance poses a substantial limitation that restricts their use in a wide range of problems where such information is unavailable, such as in many scientific applications. To address this issue, we propose Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) for diffusion models, a derivative-free approach that can solve inverse problems by only accessing forward model evaluations and a pre-trained diffusion model prior. We study the empirical effectiveness of our method across various inverse problems, including scientific settings such as inferring fluid flows and astronomical objects, which are highly non-linear inverse problems that often only permit black-box access to the forward model.

Flow matching generates data by integrating a learned velocity field, where the number of integration steps (NFE) directly determines inference cost. We analyze which properties of the velocity field govern integration error by decomposing the velocity Jacobian into its symmetric part S (strain rate) and antisymmetric part Omega (vorticity). We prove that strain and vorticity play different roles: strain controls exponential error amplification through the logarithmic norm, while vorticity contributes only linearly to the local truncation error. We further show that the optimal transport velocity field is irrotational and has zero material derivative, implying second-order Euler accuracy; for exact displacement interpolation, the associated Lagrangian particle dynamics are integrated exactly by Euler. Motivated by this analysis, we study weighted Jacobian regularization with strain weight alpha and vorticity weight beta. Experiments on 2D synthetic data confirm the main theoretical predictions, showing up to 2.7x lower integration error at NFE=5. Preliminary CIFAR-10 experiments show consistent trends, with a lightweight fine-tuning procedure improving FID by 14 percent at NFE=10 while preserving high-NFE quality.

Data-driven surrogate models improve the efficiency of simulating continuous dynamical systems, yet their autoregressive rollouts are often limited by instability and spectral blow-up. While global regularization techniques can enforce contractive dynamics, they uniformly damp high-frequency features, introducing a contraction-dissipation dilemma. Furthermore, long-horizon trajectory optimization methods that explicitly correct drift are bottlenecked by memory constraints. In this work, we propose Jacobian-Adaptive Weighting for Stability (JAWS), a probabilistic regularization strategy designed to mitigate these limitations. By framing operator learning as Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation with spatially heteroscedastic uncertainty, JAWS dynamically modulates the regularization strength based on local physical complexity. This allows the model to enforce contraction in smooth regions to suppress noise, while relaxing constraints near singular features to preserve gradients, effectively realizing a behavior similar to numerical shock-capturing schemes. Experiments demonstrate that this spatially-adaptive prior serves as an effective spectral pre-conditioner, which reduces the base operator's burden of handling high-frequency instabilities. This reduction enables memory-efficient, short-horizon trajectory optimization to match or exceed the long-term accuracy of long-horizon baselines. Evaluated on the 1D viscous Burgers' equation, our hybrid approach improves long-term stability, shock fidelity, and out-of-distribution generalization while reducing training computational costs.

Probabilistic super-resolution of high-dimensional spatial fields using diffusion models is often computationally prohibitive due to the cost of operating directly in pixel space. We propose PODiff, a structured conditional generative framework that performs diffusion in a fixed, variance-ordered Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) coefficient space, exploiting the orthogonality of POD modes to impose an interpretable, variance-ordered latent geometry. This design enables efficient ensemble generation, preserves dominant spatial structure, and yields spatially interpretable, well-calibrated uncertainty at substantially lower computational cost. We evaluate PODiff on sea surface temperature downscaling over the West Australian coast and on a controlled advection-diffusion benchmark. PODiff achieves reconstruction accuracy comparable to pixel-space diffusion while requiring significantly less memory and producing more reliable uncertainty estimates than deterministic and Monte Carlo Dropout baselines.

Physics-informed surrogate models can accelerate computational fluid dynamics simulations. However, many existing methods reproduce global flow patterns more reliably than localized multiscale structures. This study presents a physics-informed Fourier-wavelet transformer for next-step velocity-field reconstruction in real-world flow benchmarks. The proposed formulation combines hybrid Fourier-wavelet spectral encoding with physics-biased self-attention based on partial differential equation residual diagnostics. It also uses self-supervised pretraining through Masked Physics Prediction and Equation Consistency Prediction. The experiments are conducted on two real benchmark cases: cylinder-wake flow and fluid-structure interaction. All approaches are evaluated under a shared local protocol and compared with spectral, transformer-based, operator-learning, and physics-informed neural-network baselines. On the cylinder-wake benchmark, the proposed model achieves the best aggregate accuracy, with an all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 0.05875 and an all-channel Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97019. On the fluid-structure-interaction benchmark, it gives the lowest all-channel normalized mean-squared error of 2.70 times 10^{-4}, compared with 4.02 times 10^{-4} for the strongest baseline. Component-wise field comparisons and scale-separated diagnostics further show stronger recovery of localized wake structures, including near-body, wake-core, and far-wake features. The results demonstrate improved real-world flow reconstruction while maintaining a practical accuracy-cost tradeoff.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce SeismoGPT, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100\,km, epicentral distances of 10--90^circ, and magnitudes 3 leq M_w leq 7. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240\,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves median normalized cross correlation above 0.93. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a learned ODE. This separate and flexible treatment of time and space makes DINo the first data-driven model to combine the following advantages. It extrapolates at arbitrary spatial and temporal locations; it can learn from sparse irregular grids or manifolds; at test time, it generalizes to new grids or resolutions. DINo outperforms alternative neural PDE forecasters in a variety of challenging generalization scenarios on representative PDE systems.

This paper investigates the impact of big data on deep learning models to help solve the full waveform inversion (FWI) problem. While it is well known that big data can boost the performance of deep learning models in many tasks, its effectiveness has not been validated for FWI. To address this gap, we present an empirical study that investigates how deep learning models in FWI behave when trained on OpenFWI, a collection of large-scale, multi-structural, synthetic datasets published recently. In particular, we train and evaluate the FWI models on a combination of 10 2D subsets in OpenFWI that contain 470K pairs of seismic data and velocity maps in total. Our experiments demonstrate that training on the combined dataset yields an average improvement of 13.03% in MAE, 7.19% in MSE and 1.87% in SSIM compared to each split dataset, and an average improvement of 28.60%, 21.55% and 8.22% in the leave-one-out generalization test. We further demonstrate that model capacity needs to scale in accordance with data size for optimal improvement, where our largest model yields an average improvement of 20.06%, 13.39% and 0.72% compared to the smallest one.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling such global inputs to km-scale, as a cost-effective machine learning alternative. The model is trained to predict 2km data from a regional weather model over Taiwan, conditioned on a 25km global reanalysis. To address the large resolution ratio, different physics involved at different scales and prediction of channels beyond those in the input data, we employ a two-step approach where a UNet predicts the mean and a corrector diffusion (CorrDiff) model predicts the residual. CorrDiff exhibits encouraging skill in bulk MAE and CRPS scores. The predicted spectra and distributions from CorrDiff faithfully recover important power law relationships in the target data. Case studies of coherent weather phenomena show that CorrDiff can help sharpen wind and temperature gradients that co-locate with intense rainfall in cold front, and can help intensify typhoons and synthesize rain band structures. Calibration of model uncertainty remains challenging. The prospect of unifying methods like CorrDiff with coarser resolution global weather models implies a potential for global-to-regional multi-scale machine learning simulation.

Elastic geophysical properties (such as P- and S-wave velocities) are of great importance to various subsurface applications like CO_2 sequestration and energy exploration (e.g., hydrogen and geothermal). Elastic full waveform inversion (FWI) is widely applied for characterizing reservoir properties. In this paper, we introduce mathbb{E^{FWI}}, a comprehensive benchmark dataset that is specifically designed for elastic FWI. mathbb{E^{FWI}} encompasses 8 distinct datasets that cover diverse subsurface geologic structures (flat, curve, faults, etc). The benchmark results produced by three different deep learning methods are provided. In contrast to our previously presented dataset (pressure recordings) for acoustic FWI (referred to as OpenFWI), the seismic dataset in mathbb{E^{FWI}} has both vertical and horizontal components. Moreover, the velocity maps in mathbb{E^{FWI}} incorporate both P- and S-wave velocities. While the multicomponent data and the added S-wave velocity make the data more realistic, more challenges are introduced regarding the convergence and computational cost of the inversion. We conduct comprehensive numerical experiments to explore the relationship between P-wave and S-wave velocities in seismic data. The relation between P- and S-wave velocities provides crucial insights into the subsurface properties such as lithology, porosity, fluid content, etc. We anticipate that mathbb{E^{FWI}} will facilitate future research on multiparameter inversions and stimulate endeavors in several critical research topics of carbon-zero and new energy exploration. All datasets, codes and relevant information can be accessed through our website at https://efwi-lanl.github.io/

We study the bi-parameter local linearization of the one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic wave equation driven by a Gaussian noise, which is white in time and has a spatially homogeneous covariance structure of Riesz-kernel type. We establish that the second-order increments of the solution can be approximated by those of the corresponding linearized wave equation, modulated by the diffusion coefficient. These findings extend the previous results of Huang et al. HOO2024, which addressed the case of space-time white noise. As applications, we analyze the quadratic variation of the solution and construct a consistent estimator for the diffusion parameter.

Time domain simulation, i.e., modeling the system's evolution over time, is a crucial tool for studying and enhancing power system stability and dynamic performance. However, these simulations become computationally intractable for renewable-penetrated grids, due to the small simulation time step required to capture renewable energy resources' ultra-fast dynamic phenomena in the range of 1-50 microseconds. This creates a critical need for solutions that are both fast and scalable, posing a major barrier for the stable integration of renewable energy resources and thus climate change mitigation. This paper explores operator learning, a family of machine learning methods that learn mappings between functions, as a surrogate model for these costly simulations. The paper investigates, for the first time, the fundamental concept of simulation time step-invariance, which enables models trained on coarse time steps to generalize to fine-resolution dynamics. Three operator learning methods are benchmarked on a simple test system that, while not incorporating practical complexities of renewable-penetrated grids, serves as a first proof-of-concept to demonstrate the viability of time step-invariance. Models are evaluated on (i) zero-shot super-resolution, where training is performed on a coarse simulation time step and inference is performed at super-resolution, and (ii) generalization between stable and unstable dynamic regimes. This work addresses a key challenge in the integration of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change by benchmarking operator learning methods to model physical systems.

Despite their ubiquity throughout science and engineering, only a handful of partial differential equations (PDEs) have analytical, or closed-form solutions. This motivates a vast amount of classical work on numerical simulation of PDEs and more recently, a whirlwind of research into data-driven techniques leveraging machine learning (ML). A recent line of work indicates that a hybrid of classical numerical techniques and machine learning can offer significant improvements over either approach alone. In this work, we show that the choice of the numerical scheme is crucial when incorporating physics-based priors. We build upon Fourier-based spectral methods, which are known to be more efficient than other numerical schemes for simulating PDEs with smooth and periodic solutions. Specifically, we develop ML-augmented spectral solvers for three common PDEs of fluid dynamics. Our models are more accurate (2-4x) than standard spectral solvers at the same resolution but have longer overall runtimes (~2x), due to the additional runtime cost of the neural network component. We also demonstrate a handful of key design principles for combining machine learning and numerical methods for solving PDEs.

We present a stochastic coupled emulator of E3SM version 3, built on the SamudrACE framework, which couples an atmosphere emulator (ACE2) with a full-depth ocean emulator (Samudra). We replace the deterministic atmosphere emulator with its stochastic counterpart, ACE2S, and fine-tune the coupled system with a probabilistic objective, so that the atmosphere acts as a source of internal variability for the ocean. Trained on 105 years of a pre-industrial control simulation and evaluated on an independent 400 years, the emulator reproduces E3SMv3's mean climate state with biases much smaller than existing model-to-observation differences. Relative to a deterministic baseline, stochastic training maintains internal variability across timescales, most notably in the ENSO power spectrum, eddy-rich SST anomalies, and sea ice variability in the marginal ice zone. The emulator captures daily precipitation accurately up to the 99.99th percentile, but underestimates the rarest tropical extremes. These results show that stochastic coupled emulators can reproduce long-timescale variability with high fidelity, while extrapolation to unseen extremes remains a key challenge.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Bridging the gap between data-rich training regimes and observation-sparse deployment conditions remains a central challenge in spatiotemporal field reconstruction, particularly when target domains exhibit distributional shifts, heterogeneous structure, and multi-scale dynamics absent from available training data. We present SENDAI, a hierarchical Sparse-measurement, EfficieNt Data AssImilation Framework that reconstructs full spatial states from hyper sparse sensor observations by combining simulation-derived priors with learned discrepancy corrections. We demonstrate the performance on satellite remote sensing, reconstructing MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived vegetation index fields across six globally distributed sites. Using seasonal periods as a proxy for domain shift, the framework consistently outperforms established baselines that require substantially denser observations -- SENDAI achieves a maximum SSIM improvement of 185% over traditional baselines and a 36% improvement over recent high-frequency-based methods. These gains are particularly pronounced for landscapes with sharp boundaries and sub-seasonal dynamics; more importantly, the framework effectively preserves diagnostically relevant structures -- such as field topologies, land cover discontinuities, and spatial gradients. By yielding corrections that are more structurally and spectrally separable, the reconstructed fields are better suited for downstream inference of indirectly observed variables. The results therefore highlight a lightweight and operationally viable framework for sparse-measurement reconstruction that is applicable to physically grounded inference, resource-limited deployment, and real-time monitor and control.

We address the challenge of sound propagation simulations in 3D virtual rooms with moving sources, which have applications in virtual/augmented reality, game audio, and spatial computing. Solutions to the wave equation can describe wave phenomena such as diffraction and interference. However, simulating them using conventional numerical discretization methods with hundreds of source and receiver positions is intractable, making stimulating a sound field with moving sources impractical. To overcome this limitation, we propose using deep operator networks to approximate linear wave-equation operators. This enables the rapid prediction of sound propagation in realistic 3D acoustic scenes with moving sources, achieving millisecond-scale computations. By learning a compact surrogate model, we avoid the offline calculation and storage of impulse responses for all relevant source/listener pairs. Our experiments, including various complex scene geometries, show good agreement with reference solutions, with root mean squared errors ranging from 0.02 Pa to 0.10 Pa. Notably, our method signifies a paradigm shift as no prior machine learning approach has achieved precise predictions of complete wave fields within realistic domains. We anticipate that our findings will drive further exploration of deep neural operator methods, advancing research in immersive user experiences within virtual environments.

Recent advancements in operator-type neural networks have shown promising results in approximating the solutions of spatiotemporal Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). However, these neural networks often entail considerable training expenses, and may not always achieve the desired accuracy required in many scientific and engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a new Spatiotemporal Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) that learns maps between Bochner spaces, and a new learning framework to address these issues. This new paradigm leverages wisdom from traditional numerical PDE theory and techniques to refine the pipeline of commonly adopted end-to-end neural operator training and evaluations. Specifically, in the learning problems for the turbulent flow modeling by the Navier-Stokes Equations (NSE), the proposed architecture initiates the training with a few epochs for SFNO, concluding with the freezing of most model parameters. Then, the last linear spectral convolution layer is fine-tuned without the frequency truncation. The optimization uses a negative Sobolev norm for the first time as the loss in operator learning, defined through a reliable functional-type a posteriori error estimator whose evaluation is almost exact thanks to the Parseval identity. This design allows the neural operators to effectively tackle low-frequency errors while the relief of the de-aliasing filter addresses high-frequency errors. Numerical experiments on commonly used benchmarks for the 2D NSE demonstrate significant improvements in both computational efficiency and accuracy, compared to end-to-end evaluation and traditional numerical PDE solvers.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

Traditional experimental and numerical approaches for fluid dynamics problems often suffer from high computational cost, mesh sensitivity, and limited capability in capturing complex physical behaviors. Moreover, conventional physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) frequently struggle in chaotic and highly unsteady flow regimes. In this work, we propose PhysicsFormer, a fast and efficient transformer-based physics-informed framework that incorporates multi-head encoder-decoder cross-attention. Unlike multilayer perceptron-based PINNs, PhysicsFormer operates on sequential representations constructed from spatio-temporal data, enabling effective learning of long-range temporal dependencies and improved propagation of initial condition information. A data-embedding strategy is employed to convert spatio-temporal points into pseudo-sequences, while a dynamics-weighted loss function replaces the standard PINNs formulation. Owing to its parallel learning structure, PhysicsFormer demonstrates superior computational efficiency compared to existing transformer-based approaches. The framework is validated on Burgers' equation and flow reconstruction governed by the Navier-Stokes equations, achieving mean squared errors on the order of 10^{-6}. In addition, an inverse problem involving parameter identification in the two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is investigated. For clean data, PhysicsFormer achieves zero identification error for both λ_1 and λ_2; under 1% Gaussian noise, the errors are 0.07% for λ_1 and 0% for λ_2. These results demonstrate that PhysicsFormer provides a reliable and computationally efficient surrogate modeling framework for time-dependent fluid flow problems.

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

Numerical simulation of non-linear partial differential equations plays a crucial role in modeling physical science and engineering phenomena, such as weather, climate, and aerodynamics. Recent Machine Learning (ML) models trained on low-resolution spatio-temporal signals have shown new promises in capturing important dynamics in high-resolution signals, under the condition that the models can effectively recover the missing details. However, this study shows that significant information is often lost in the low-resolution down-sampled features. To address such issues, we propose a new approach, namely Temporal Stencil Modeling (TSM), which combines the strengths of advanced time-series sequence modeling (with the HiPPO features) and state-of-the-art neural PDE solvers (with learnable stencil modeling). TSM aims to recover the lost information from the PDE trajectories and can be regarded as a temporal generalization of classic finite volume methods such as WENO. Our experimental results show that TSM achieves the new state-of-the-art simulation accuracy for 2-D incompressible Navier-Stokes turbulent flows: it significantly outperforms the previously reported best results by 19.9% in terms of the highly-correlated duration time and reduces the inference latency into 80%. We also show a strong generalization ability of the proposed method to various out-of-distribution turbulent flow settings. Our code is available at "https://github.com/Edward-Sun/TSM-PDE".

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4sigma away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

We present an open-source Python library for simulating two-dimensional incompressible Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities in stratified shear flows. The solver employs a fractional-step projection method with spectral Poisson solution via Fast Sine Transform, achieving second-order spatial accuracy. Implementation leverages NumPy, SciPy, and Numba JIT compilation for efficient computation. Four canonical test cases explore Reynolds numbers 1000--5000 and Richardson numbers 0.1--0.3: classical shear layer, double shear configuration, rotating flow, and forced turbulence. Statistical analysis using Shannon entropy and complexity indices reveals that double shear layers achieve 2.8times higher mixing rates than forced turbulence despite lower Reynolds numbers. The solver runs efficiently on standard desktop hardware, with 384times192 grid simulations completing in approximately 31 minutes. Results demonstrate that mixing efficiency depends on instability generation pathways rather than intensity measures alone, challenging Richardson number-based parameterizations and suggesting refinements for subgrid-scale representation in climate models.

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

Predicting where floodwater goes and how deep it gets, at high resolution and across large domains, remains computationally expensive with conventional hydraulic solvers, while purely data-driven surrogates are fast but lack physical guarantees and generalize poorly beyond their training events. We present Inunda, a GPU-native flood inundation model that solves the two-dimensional shallow water equations. Inunda uses a mass-conservative local-inertial scheme and runs multi-day events over millions of cells in minutes on a single GPU. Because every operator is autograd-compatible, the solver is differentiable by construction: model parameters can be estimated by gradient descent against gage observations through reverse-mode automatic differentiation of the full simulation. We demonstrate Inunda on three case studies. For a hindcast of Hurricane Harvey (2017) in Harris County, Texas, Inunda matches surveyed high-water marks to a mean absolute error of 0.67 m, competitive with or better than a suite of established flood models, and reaches a median gage water-level Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of +0.72, more than double the +0.31 of the operational National Water Model v3.0. For the July 2025 Central Texas flash flood, Inunda is driven by an 18-member 1-km convection-allowing precipitation ensemble to produce probabilistic flood forecasts whose skill improves systematically as lead time to the crest shortens. For a post-fire flash-flood application in the Rio Ruidoso burn scar, differentiable calibration recovers the saturated hydraulic conductivity as a spatially explicit field at the model's own resolution and traces its multi-year post-fire recovery. Inunda provides an open, end-to-end pipeline for real-event flood modeling that couples the accuracy of physics-based hydraulics with the calibration and coupling advantages of modern differentiable programming.

Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records. To address these challenges, we adapt ECMWF's AIFS-CRPS medium-range model. AIFS-SUBS adopts a 24h autoregressive time step to reduce error accumulation, adds stratospheric levels and top-of-atmosphere thermal radiation as predictors, and reserves 2007--2011 as an independent verification window. We evaluate two config-durations: AIFS-SUBS, fine-tuned on operational analyses, and AIFS-SUBS-ERA5, trained on ERA5 alone. Across weeks 2--6, AIFS-SUBS matches the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in probabilistic skill while reducing systematic biases. For the convective (OLR) component of the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), AIFS-SUBS extends skilful forecasts (correlation > 0.5) by eight days relative to the IFS, while matching or exceeding the IFS for the full multivariate RMM index. AIFS-SUBS also reproduces the observed MJO modulation of tropical cyclone activity comparably. Stratospheric skill is particularly strong with AIFS-SUBS reproducing sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) frequency and surface impact. In the AI Weather Quest, AIFS-SUBS-ERA5 attains a variable-averaged ranked probability skill score slightly ahead of the IFS at weeks 3 and 4. At inference, AIFS-SUBS uses about 200 times less energy than the IFS, opening the door to much larger real-time ensembles. AIFS-SUBS is ECMWF's first machine-learning model targeted at sub-seasonal time-scales.

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present GraphSplineNets, a novel deep-learning method to speed up the forecasting of physical systems by reducing the grid size and number of iteration steps of deep surrogate models. Our method uses two differentiable orthogonal spline collocation methods to efficiently predict response at any location in time and space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive collocation strategy in space to prioritize sampling from the most important regions. GraphSplineNets improve the accuracy-speedup tradeoff in forecasting various dynamical systems with increasing complexity, including the heat equation, damped wave propagation, Navier-Stokes equations, and real-world ocean currents in both regular and irregular domains.

Acquisition of large datasets for three-dimensional (3D) partial differential equations are usually very expensive. Physics-informed neural operator (PINO) eliminates the high costs associated with generation of training datasets, and shows great potential in a variety of partial differential equations. In this work, we employ physics-informed neural operator, encoding the large-eddy simulation (LES) equations directly into the neural operator for simulating three-dimensional incompressible turbulent flows. We develop the LESnets (Large-Eddy Simulation nets) by adding large-eddy simulation equations to two different data-driven models, including Fourier neural operator (FNO) and implicit Fourier neural operator (IFNO) without using label data. Notably, by leveraging only PDE constraints to learn the spatio-temporal dynamics problem, LESnets retains the computational efficiency of data-driven approaches while obviating the necessity for data. Meanwhile, using large-eddy simulation equations as PDE constraints makes it possible to efficiently predict complex turbulence at coarse grids. We investigate the performance of the LESnets with two standard three-dimensional turbulent flows: decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence and temporally evolving turbulent mixing layer. In the numerical experiments, the LESnets model shows a similar or even better accuracy as compared to traditional large-eddy simulation and data-driven models of FNO and IFNO. Moreover, the well-trained LESnets is significantly faster than traditional LES, and has a similar efficiency as the data-driven FNO and IFNO models. Thus, physics-informed neural operators have a strong potential for 3D nonlinear engineering applications.

Conventionally, Earth system (e.g., weather and climate) forecasting relies on numerical simulation with complex physical models and are hence both expensive in computation and demanding on domain expertise. With the explosive growth of the spatiotemporal Earth observation data in the past decade, data-driven models that apply Deep Learning (DL) are demonstrating impressive potential for various Earth system forecasting tasks. The Transformer as an emerging DL architecture, despite its broad success in other domains, has limited adoption in this area. In this paper, we propose Earthformer, a space-time Transformer for Earth system forecasting. Earthformer is based on a generic, flexible and efficient space-time attention block, named Cuboid Attention. The idea is to decompose the data into cuboids and apply cuboid-level self-attention in parallel. These cuboids are further connected with a collection of global vectors. We conduct experiments on the MovingMNIST dataset and a newly proposed chaotic N-body MNIST dataset to verify the effectiveness of cuboid attention and figure out the best design of Earthformer. Experiments on two real-world benchmarks about precipitation nowcasting and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting show Earthformer achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available: https://github.com/amazon-science/earth-forecasting-transformer .

Floods wreak havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damages, and uprooting communities, ecosystems and economies. The NASA Impact Flood Detection competition tasked participants with predicting flooded pixels after training with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images in a supervised setting. We propose a semi-supervised learning pseudo-labeling scheme that derives confidence estimates from U-Net ensembles, progressively improving accuracy. Concretely, we use a cyclical approach involving multiple stages (1) training an ensemble model of multiple U-Net architectures with the provided high confidence hand-labeled data and, generated pseudo labels or low confidence labels on the entire unlabeled test dataset, and then, (2) filter out quality generated labels and, (3) combine the generated labels with the previously available high confidence hand-labeled dataset. This assimilated dataset is used for the next round of training ensemble models and the cyclical process is repeated until the performance improvement plateaus. We post process our results with Conditional Random Fields. Our approach sets a new state-of-the-art on the Sentinel-1 dataset with 0.7654 IoU, an impressive improvement over the 0.60 IoU baseline. Our method, which we release with all the code and models, can also be used as an open science benchmark for the Sentinel-1 dataset.

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. However, challenges remain in ensuring the physical consistency of MLWP outputs, particularly in deterministic settings. This study presents FastNet, a graph neural network (GNN)-based global prediction model, and investigates the impact of alternative loss function designs on improving the physical realism of its forecasts. We explore three key modifications to the standard mean squared error (MSE) loss: (1) a modified spherical harmonic (MSH) loss that penalises spectral amplitude errors to reduce blurring and enhance small-scale structure retention; (2) inclusion of horizontal gradient terms in the loss to suppress non-physical artefacts; and (3) an alternative wind representation that decouples speed and direction to better capture extreme wind events. Results show that while the MSH and gradient-based losses alone may slightly degrade RMSE scores, when trained in combination the model exhibits very similar MSE performance to an MSE-trained model while at the same time significantly improving spectral fidelity and physical consistency. The alternative wind representation further improves wind speed accuracy and reduces directional bias. Collectively, these findings highlight the importance of loss function design as a mechanism for embedding domain knowledge into MLWP models and advancing their operational readiness.

Neural operators learn mappings between function spaces, which is practical for learning solution operators of PDEs and other scientific modeling applications. Among them, the Fourier neural operator (FNO) is a popular architecture that performs global convolutions in the Fourier space. However, such global operations are often prone to over-smoothing and may fail to capture local details. In contrast, convolutional neural networks (CNN) can capture local features but are limited to training and inference at a single resolution. In this work, we present a principled approach to operator learning that can capture local features under two frameworks by learning differential operators and integral operators with locally supported kernels. Specifically, inspired by stencil methods, we prove that we obtain differential operators under an appropriate scaling of the kernel values of CNNs. To obtain local integral operators, we utilize suitable basis representations for the kernels based on discrete-continuous convolutions. Both these approaches preserve the properties of operator learning and, hence, the ability to predict at any resolution. Adding our layers to FNOs significantly improves their performance, reducing the relative L2-error by 34-72% in our experiments, which include a turbulent 2D Navier-Stokes and the spherical shallow water equations.

In this paper, we propose to use the general L^2-based Sobolev norms, i.e., H^s norms where sin R, to measure the data discrepancy due to noise in image processing tasks that are formulated as optimization problems. As opposed to a popular trend of developing regularization methods, we emphasize that an implicit regularization effect can be achieved through the class of Sobolev norms as the data-fitting term. Specifically, we analyze that the implicit regularization comes from the weights that the H^s norm imposes on different frequency contents of an underlying image. We further analyze the underlying noise assumption of using the Sobolev norm as the data-fitting term from a Bayesian perspective, build the connections with the Sobolev gradient-based methods and discuss the preconditioning effects on the convergence rate of the gradient descent algorithm, leading to a better understanding of functional spaces/metrics and the optimization process involved in image processing. Numerical results in full waveform inversion, image denoising and deblurring demonstrate the implicit regularization effects.

We consider the problem of modeling high-speed flows using machine learning methods. While most prior studies focus on low-speed fluid flows in which uniform time-stepping is practical, flows approaching and exceeding the speed of sound exhibit sudden changes such as shock waves. In such cases, it is essential to use adaptive time-stepping methods to allow a temporal resolution sufficient to resolve these phenomena while simultaneously balancing computational costs. Here, we propose a two-phase machine learning method, known as ShockCast, to model high-speed flows with adaptive time-stepping. In the first phase, we propose to employ a machine learning model to predict the timestep size. In the second phase, the predicted timestep is used as an input along with the current fluid fields to advance the system state by the predicted timestep. We explore several physically-motivated components for timestep prediction and introduce timestep conditioning strategies inspired by neural ODE and Mixture of Experts. As ShockCast is the first framework for learning high-speed flows, we evaluate our methods by generating two supersonic flow datasets, available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/divelab. Our code is publicly available as part of the AIRS library (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS).

Implicitly defined, continuous, differentiable signal representations parameterized by neural networks have emerged as a powerful paradigm, offering many possible benefits over conventional representations. However, current network architectures for such implicit neural representations are incapable of modeling signals with fine detail, and fail to represent a signal's spatial and temporal derivatives, despite the fact that these are essential to many physical signals defined implicitly as the solution to partial differential equations. We propose to leverage periodic activation functions for implicit neural representations and demonstrate that these networks, dubbed sinusoidal representation networks or Sirens, are ideally suited for representing complex natural signals and their derivatives. We analyze Siren activation statistics to propose a principled initialization scheme and demonstrate the representation of images, wavefields, video, sound, and their derivatives. Further, we show how Sirens can be leveraged to solve challenging boundary value problems, such as particular Eikonal equations (yielding signed distance functions), the Poisson equation, and the Helmholtz and wave equations. Lastly, we combine Sirens with hypernetworks to learn priors over the space of Siren functions.

Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial resolution, and the ability to learn directly from atmospheric observations, are just some of these models' unique advantages. Neural models trained using atmospheric observations, the highest fidelity and lowest latency data, have to date achieved good performance only up to twelve hours of lead time when compared with state-of-the-art probabilistic Numerical Weather Prediction models and only for the sole variable of precipitation. In this paper, we present MetNet-3 that extends significantly both the lead time range and the variables that an observation based neural model can predict well. MetNet-3 learns from both dense and sparse data sensors and makes predictions up to 24 hours ahead for precipitation, wind, temperature and dew point. MetNet-3 introduces a key densification technique that implicitly captures data assimilation and produces spatially dense forecasts in spite of the network training on extremely sparse targets. MetNet-3 has a high temporal and spatial resolution of, respectively, up to 2 minutes and 1 km as well as a low operational latency. We find that MetNet-3 is able to outperform the best single- and multi-member NWPs such as HRRR and ENS over the CONUS region for up to 24 hours ahead setting a new performance milestone for observation based neural models. MetNet-3 is operational and its forecasts are served in Google Search in conjunction with other models.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Neural operators learn to map initial conditions to the terminal solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), providing a surrogate for the full operator mapping. This enables rapid prediction across different input configurations. While recent neural operator architectures have demonstrated strong performance on diverse PDE tasks, their behavior under structured distribution shifts remains insufficiently understood. To investigate this, we study operator learning in a wave propagation setting governed by a one-dimensional variable-coefficient wave equation, using two representative architectures, the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) and the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet). To examine their generalization under distribution shifts, we consider structured out-of-distribution (OOD) settings that independently vary input frequency and coefficient smoothness. The results show that under smoothness shifts, both models maintain stable performance, with FNO achieving lower error. In contrast, under frequency shifts, FNO exhibits a sharp increase in error under unseen high-frequency inputs, whereas DeepONet shows milder degradation despite higher overall error. Our analysis reveals that these differences arise from how each architecture represents and responds to variations in frequency structure. Together, these findings highlight a fundamental gap between strong in-distribution performance and generalization under distribution shifts in operator learning, underscoring the role of architectural representation bias in developing more reliable neural operators for physics-based PDE simulations beyond the training distribution.

Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows for distributed development of individual components within a common framework, unified by a coupler that handles translation between realms via spatial or temporal alignment and flux exchange. Following a similar approach adapted for machine learning-based emulators, we present SamudrACE: a coupled global climate model emulator which produces centuries-long simulations at 1-degree horizontal, 6-hourly atmospheric, and 5-daily oceanic resolution, with 145 2D fields spanning 8 atmospheric and 19 oceanic vertical levels, plus sea ice, surface, and top-of-atmosphere variables. SamudrACE is highly stable and has low climate biases comparable to those of its components with prescribed boundary forcing, with realistic variability in coupled climate phenomena such as ENSO that is not possible to simulate in uncoupled mode.

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts. However, they often act as data-driven black-box models that neglect the underlying physics and lack uncertainty quantification. We address these limitations with ClimODE, a spatiotemporal continuous-time process that implements a key principle of advection from statistical mechanics, namely, weather changes due to a spatial movement of quantities over time. ClimODE models precise weather evolution with value-conserving dynamics, learning global weather transport as a neural flow, which also enables estimating the uncertainty in predictions. Our approach outperforms existing data-driven methods in global and regional forecasting with an order of magnitude smaller parameterization, establishing a new state of the art.