File size: 9,820 Bytes
98abea7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7dd628f
 
98abea7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
"""Shared loader for reflection artifacts. GLM-aware: rows with no summary.json
are tagged status="in_flight" so viz scripts can plot dashed/hatched segments."""

from __future__ import annotations

import json
import math
from collections import Counter
from dataclasses import dataclass
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Iterable

PROJECT_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
ARTIFACTS_ROOT = PROJECT_ROOT / "artifacts"
DATASETS_ROOT = PROJECT_ROOT / "datasets"

# Per-model iter mapping. iter 0 = baseline; iters 1..5 = reflection rollouts.
# Each tuple: (iter_number, run_dir_name, label).
MODEL_RUNS: dict[str, list[tuple[int, str, str]]] = {
    "qwen-qwen3-32b-groq": [
        (0, "20260426T014336Z__train-test__qwen-qwen3-32b-groq", "baseline"),
        (1, "20260426T022442Z__train-test__qwen-qwen3-32b-groq__iter01_reflect", "iter1"),
        (2, "20260426T025319Z__train-test__qwen-qwen3-32b-groq__iter02_reflect", "iter2"),
        (3, "20260426T032611Z__train-test__qwen-qwen3-32b-groq__iter01_reflect", "iter3"),
        (4, "20260426T035335Z__train-test__qwen-qwen3-32b-groq__iter02_reflect", "iter4"),
        (5, "20260426T042137Z__train-test__qwen-qwen3-32b-groq__iter03_reflect", "iter5"),
    ],
    "zai-glm-5.1-together": [
        (0, "20260426T035937Z__train-test__zai-org-glm-5-1-together", "baseline"),
        (1, "20260426T044349Z__train-test__zai-org-glm-5-1-together__iter01_reflect", "iter1"),
        (2, "20260426T052859Z__train-test__zai-org-glm-5-1-together__iter02_reflect", "iter2"),
        (3, "20260426T070351Z__train-test__zai-org-glm-5-1-together__iter03_reflect", "iter3"),
    ],
}

MODEL_LABELS: dict[str, str] = {
    "qwen-qwen3-32b-groq": "Qwen3-32B (Groq)",
    "zai-glm-5.1-together": "GLM-5.1 (Together)",
}


@dataclass
class IterRow:
    iter: int
    label: str
    run_dir: Path
    status: str  # "complete" | "in_flight"
    score_normalized: float | None = None
    final_portfolio_value: float | None = None
    initial_portfolio_value: float | None = None
    roi_pct: float | None = None
    bars_completed: int | None = None
    cumulative_reward: float | None = None
    final_score: float | None = None


def load_model_iters(model_id: str) -> list[IterRow]:
    rows: list[IterRow] = []
    for it, run_name, label in MODEL_RUNS[model_id]:
        run_dir = ARTIFACTS_ROOT / "runs" / run_name
        summary = run_dir / "test" / "summary.json"
        if not summary.is_file():
            rows.append(IterRow(it, label, run_dir, status="in_flight"))
            continue
        s = json.loads(summary.read_text())
        rows.append(
            IterRow(
                iter=it,
                label=label,
                run_dir=run_dir,
                status="complete",
                score_normalized=float(s["score_normalized"]),
                final_portfolio_value=float(s["final_portfolio_value"]),
                initial_portfolio_value=float(s["initial_portfolio_value"]),
                roi_pct=(float(s["final_portfolio_value"]) / float(s["initial_portfolio_value"]) - 1.0) * 100.0,
                bars_completed=int(s["bars_completed"]),
                cumulative_reward=float(s["cumulative_reward"]),
                final_score=float(s["final_score"]),
            )
        )
    return rows


_GATE_REJECT_PREFIX = "Long-horizon planning gate:"


def load_advance_day_rows(run_dir: Path) -> list[dict]:
    """Return all SUCCESSFUL advance_day events from test/trajectory.jsonl.

    Skips per-bar gate rejections (the env returns the row but doesn't tick
    the clock; tool_output_excerpt starts with the gate message).
    """
    traj = run_dir / "test" / "trajectory.jsonl"
    rows: list[dict] = []
    with traj.open("r", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
        for line in fh:
            line = line.strip()
            if not line:
                continue
            row = json.loads(line)
            if row.get("action_type") != "advance_day":
                continue
            if row.get("error"):
                continue
            excerpt = row.get("tool_output_excerpt") or ""
            if excerpt.startswith(_GATE_REJECT_PREFIX):
                continue
            rows.append(row)
    return rows


def load_action_counts(run_dir: Path) -> Counter:
    """Count test-phase actions from trajectory.jsonl.

    Filters out:
    - rows with explicit error field set
    - advance_day calls that hit the per-bar record_decision gate (these
      did not advance state and shouldn't be counted as "successful actions").
    """
    traj = run_dir / "test" / "trajectory.jsonl"
    counts: Counter = Counter()
    if not traj.is_file():
        return counts
    with traj.open("r", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
        for line in fh:
            line = line.strip()
            if not line:
                continue
            row = json.loads(line)
            if row.get("error"):
                continue
            atype = row.get("action_type") or "unknown"
            if atype == "advance_day":
                excerpt = row.get("tool_output_excerpt") or ""
                if excerpt.startswith(_GATE_REJECT_PREFIX):
                    continue
            counts[atype] += 1
    return counts


def load_prompt(run_dir: Path) -> str:
    """Read the system prompt that drove a given run."""
    return (run_dir / "system_prompt.txt").read_text(encoding="utf-8")


def episode_manifest() -> dict:
    return json.loads(
        (DATASETS_ROOT / "catalog" / "sample-v2" / "episode_manifests" / "tier_test.json").read_text()
    )


def equal_weight_bnh_series(dates: Iterable[str], initial_value: float = 100_000.0) -> list[float]:
    """Compute equal-weight B&H portfolio value at each agent-date.

    Reads the daily_bars parquet, takes universe close marks at each requested
    date, and returns the B&H portfolio value (set equal weights at the first
    date, no rebalancing thereafter)."""
    import pandas as pd

    manifest = episode_manifest()
    universe = list(manifest["universe_asset_ids"])
    bars_path = DATASETS_ROOT / "catalog" / "sample-v2" / "daily_bars" / "part-000.parquet"
    df = pd.read_parquet(bars_path, columns=["asset_id", "session_date", "close"])
    df = df[df["asset_id"].isin(universe)].copy()
    df["session_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["session_date"]).dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
    df["close"] = df["close"].astype(float)  # close is stored as Decimal in the parquet

    pivot = df.pivot(index="session_date", columns="asset_id", values="close").sort_index()
    dates = list(dates)
    pivot = pivot.reindex(dates).ffill()  # forward-fill in case a name has no print on a holiday

    # Equal weight at the first agent-date (= bar 0).
    first_close = pivot.iloc[0]
    qty = (initial_value / len(universe)) / first_close  # asset_id -> shares
    bnh_values = (pivot * qty).sum(axis=1).tolist()
    return bnh_values


def replay_reward_components(run_dir: Path) -> list[dict]:
    """Recompute the new convex composite reward + per-component breakdown
    for every advance_day in a run. Uses the live ``compute_composite_reward``
    so drift in the reward module is reflected.
    """
    import sys

    if str(PROJECT_ROOT) not in sys.path:
        sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT))
    if str(PROJECT_ROOT / "src") not in sys.path:
        sys.path.insert(0, str(PROJECT_ROOT / "src"))
    from tradebench.rewards.composite import compute_composite_reward  # type: ignore

    rows = load_advance_day_rows(run_dir)
    if not rows:
        return []
    manifest = episode_manifest()
    initial_value = float(manifest.get("initial_cash", 100_000))

    dates = [r["current_date"] for r in rows]
    bnh_values = equal_weight_bnh_series(dates, initial_value=initial_value)

    breakdowns: list[dict] = []
    high_water = initial_value
    prev_v = initial_value
    cum_log_bench = 0.0
    recent_alphas: list[float] = []
    prev_bnh = bnh_values[0]

    for i, row in enumerate(rows):
        v_after = float(row["portfolio_value"])
        if v_after <= 0:
            v_after = 1.0
        bnh_t = bnh_values[i]
        bar_log_agent = math.log(v_after / prev_v) if prev_v > 0 else 0.0
        bar_log_bench = math.log(bnh_t / prev_bnh) if prev_bnh > 0 else 0.0
        cum_log_agent = math.log(v_after / initial_value)
        cum_log_bench = math.log(bnh_t / initial_value)

        bar_alpha = bar_log_agent - bar_log_bench
        recent_alphas.append(bar_alpha)
        if len(recent_alphas) > 20:
            recent_alphas.pop(0)

        breakdown = compute_composite_reward(
            value_after=v_after,
            initial_value=initial_value,
            cumulative_log_return=cum_log_agent,
            cumulative_benchmark_log_return=cum_log_bench,
            recent_bar_alphas=tuple(recent_alphas),
            high_watermark=high_water,
            turnover_ratio=0.05,  # approximation; trajectory doesn't capture this directly
            hhi=0.20,
            gross_leverage=0.0,
            violations_rules=False,
            violations_hack=False,
        )
        d = breakdown.to_dict()
        d["bar"] = i
        d["date"] = row["current_date"]
        d["portfolio_value"] = v_after
        d["bnh_value"] = bnh_t
        d["bar_alpha"] = bar_alpha
        d["cum_alpha"] = cum_log_agent - cum_log_bench
        breakdowns.append(d)

        if v_after > high_water:
            high_water = v_after
        prev_v = v_after
        prev_bnh = bnh_t

    return breakdowns


__all__ = [
    "ARTIFACTS_ROOT",
    "DATASETS_ROOT",
    "MODEL_RUNS",
    "MODEL_LABELS",
    "PROJECT_ROOT",
    "IterRow",
    "load_model_iters",
    "load_advance_day_rows",
    "load_action_counts",
    "load_prompt",
    "episode_manifest",
    "equal_weight_bnh_series",
    "replay_reward_components",
]