Datasets:
sample_id string | source_dataset_id string | is_valid bool | question_text string | question_type string | prediction_date string | event_date string | date_close string | resolution_date string | resolution_criteria string | label string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | reasoning string | answer_sources string | seed_text string | seed_url string | seed_creation_date string | seed_search_query string | context_text string | prompt string | user_prompt string | question_json string | label_json string | seed_json string | context_json string | rollouts_json null | meta_json string | raw_sample_json string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0ee3e106-fd2c-4c71-924b-6eb9a2aeeda7 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | 2024-08-31T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence or a senior UK cabinet official makes a public statement explicitly authorizing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets located within Russia's internationally recognized borders (pre-2014) on or before August 31, 2024. | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-02 and the close date is 2024-08-31. During this period, despite significant diplomatic pressure and initial confusion following remarks by Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the NATO summit on July 11, 2024, the United Kingdom did not officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow missiles again... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGdb0Lw9LvX1qrMxs7mXkhWtU3kuuAB7mwU_GwipyaGkVgEvCz3tlXHE4fzarFooANGAzjLC6_Okv4akvw6WN8140nMwytxr-svof4RCapQojYt37L6_qv0mMmgxd_xy-E85bQpqT1Q_8wTiHv6fkCriXknHqU2MmlNH49YNGhRX4dtTxiC719lGG292alO_P2L0ertgue1oprdQO4dqX8u1A== | Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?
The US and other nations have greenlit more weapons for use on Russian soil. But many in Ukraine believe this should have been done much earlier.
Kyiv, Ukraine – Denys, a serviceman in Kyiv on leave from Ukraine's eastern front, is indignant abo... | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/ukraine-can-now-use-western-arms-to-strike-inside-russia | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue (published on 2024-05-10 by lowyinstitute.org) (relevance: 6.0)
Summary: The UK is now allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with British-supplied weapons, mirroring mo... | QUESTION:
Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence or a senior UK cabinet official m... | QUESTION:
Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
This question resolves to Yes if the UK Ministry of Defence or a senior UK cabinet official m... | {"date_close": "2024-08-31T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United Kingdom officially authorize the use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles for strikes against targets inside Russia's sovereign territory by August 31, 2024?", "question_type... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGdb0Lw9LvX1qrMxs7mXkhWtU3kuuAB7mwU_GwipyaGkVgEvCz3tlXHE4fzarFooANGAzjLC6_Okv4akvw6WN8140nMwytxr-svof4RCapQojYt37L6_qv0mMmgxd_xy-E85bQpqT1Q_8wTiHv6fkCriXknHqU2MmlNH49YNGhRX4dtTxiC719lGG292alO_P2L0ertgue1o... | {"search_query": "missile strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?\nThe US and other nations have greenlit more weapons for use on Russian soil. But many in Ukraine believe this should have been done much earlier.\nKyi... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue (published on 2024-05-10 by lowyinstitute.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The UK is now allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with British-supplied weapons, mirroring... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "8abfbb7d-2186-43f9-b0f3-3ac8e6c80689", "processing_time_ms": 54455.601, "sample_id": "435b0915-06bc-482d-9b7c-3ed8ef28c4ea"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine gets the green light for strikes in Russia – it was long overdue (published on 2024-05-10 by lowyinstitute.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The UK is now allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with British-supplied weapon... |
451b2ce7-7776-4803-b006-f055119782f2 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a joint statement confirming a combined operation targeting multiple Houthi sites, similar to the five previous major joint missions mentioned in the seed text. Routine solo U.S. 'self-defense' strikes do not count. | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | The question date is 2024-06-02 and the close date is 2024-07-02. According to official UK Ministry of Defence and US Central Command (CENTCOM) reports, the fifth and last joint US-UK large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign of the first half of 2024 occurred on May 30, 2024. This event took place prior to the questi... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFA-VlssxcAEpfx1UNg-nyLs-w-tvStHP00hTzVGS7Z_ZtpK9thnZGhhiPa3G6EKVQgSY2jDYJcQfd3LRKmeAGDGiokE3OMIJS1w7HpswhiVLOihGh02B46m5BwxUXAoptBRkAyB_qefal6XqfD1wQLLr65J1Y_XXXjSw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHese_hf0yXo1By... | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Yemen's Houthis vowed to "meet escalation with escalation" after joint U.S.-U.K. strik... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a... | QUESTION:
Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense and the UK Ministry of Defence issue a... | {"date_close": "2024-07-02T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will the United States and the United Kingdom conduct a joint, large-scale coordinated airstrike campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen before July 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWAR... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFA-VlssxcAEpfx1UNg-nyLs-w-tvStHP00hTzVGS7Z_ZtpK9thnZGhhiPa3G6EKVQgSY2jDYJcQfd3LRKmeAGDGiokE3OMIJS1w7HpswhiVLOihGh02B46m5BwxUXAoptBRkAyB_qefal6XqfD1wQLLr65J1Y_XXXjSw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis vowed to \"meet escalation with escalation\" after joint U.S.-U.K. ... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a", "processing_time_ms": 12188.128, "sample_id": "f5ac3980-5055-4392-a77f-434357e72ad1"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Yemen's Houthis threaten escalation after American strike using 5,000-pound bunker-buster bomb (published on 2024-05-31 by cbsnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis vowed to \"meet escalation with escalation\" after join... |
4ecf12ba-3aeb-490d-b884-9dffc34b6956 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024? | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a widely recognized international news agency confirming that a U.S. Navy vessel (including but not limited to the USS Gravely, USS Mason, or USS Philippine Sea) sustained a direct hit resulting in physical damage or pe... | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | Between the question date of 2024-06-02 and the close date of 2024-08-01, there were no verified reports of Houthi forces successfully hitting a U.S. Navy warship with a missile or drone. Although Houthi military spokesmen made repeated claims of successful strikes—most notably against the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFM1wheckfwXFftm339NsrgJyzNzxuy7WB9SouFUf-oDhcLSfnok7qak4zSkTlavOKGTUAhg-NWQOtIWR_GfuoWDZ59UoXnsJo9vMjpRHVrBnv65kt7P6249Zh5oxVfCRPMzMCZVTmasKCsvrjPnoAhH_wu6bFM1aaJ_8YbRvqUgtTze_W5iq0PgnkcaY0CwHLEQ0S3M-wavD3XRw== | The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at least another month, according to U.S. officials.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin signed t... | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | NEWS:
Recent news articles relevant to this question:
---
ARTICLES
[1] Houthis claim attacking USS Mason that shot down missile in Red Sea (published on 2024-05-15 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)
Summary: Yemen's Houthis claimed to target a US Navy destroyer and a commercial ship in the Red Sea, though the attack o... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a widely recognized interna... | QUESTION:
Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024?
TODAY'S DATE:
2024-06-02
RESOLUTION CRITERIA:
The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official report from the U.S. Department of Defense or a widely recognized interna... | {"date_close": "2024-08-01T00:00:00", "event_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "prediction_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "question_text": "Will Houthi forces successfully hit a U.S. Navy warship in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden with a missile or drone before August 1, 2024?", "question_type": "FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION", "res... | {"answer_parser_type": null, "answer_sources": "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFM1wheckfwXFftm339NsrgJyzNzxuy7WB9SouFUf-oDhcLSfnok7qak4zSkTlavOKGTUAhg-NWQOtIWR_GfuoWDZ59UoXnsJo9vMjpRHVrBnv65kt7P6249Zh5oxVfCRPMzMCZVTmasKCsvrjPnoAhH_wu6bFM1aaJ_8YbRvqUgtTze_W5iq0PgnkcaY0CwHLEQ0S3M-wav... | {"search_query": "naval strike", "seed_creation_date": "2024-06-02T00:00:00", "seed_text": "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect military and commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will remain in the region for at le... | [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis claim attacking USS Mason that shot down missile in Red Sea (published on 2024-05-15 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis claimed to target a US Navy destroyer and a commercial ship in the Red Sea, though the attac... | null | {"parent_sample_id": "ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a", "processing_time_ms": 11869.941, "sample_id": "17c4db9e-7227-4841-8349-c496e2d01c94"} | {"context": [{"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT", "rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthis claim attacking USS Mason that shot down missile in Red Sea (published on 2024-05-15 by navytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Yemen's Houthis claimed to target a US Navy destroyer and a commercial ship in the Red Sea, thou... |
66b304de-16be-4ff8-962d-809cd28d80e4 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vessel against (...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to Yes if the Ukrainian South Command or independent maritime news agencies c(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "Between the question date (2024-06-02) and the close date (2024-07-31), Russian forces conducted se(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHGj7KDgZ8C8SplsFuvdXf7-lNecGwQrWgpBMIIWrfqBPClJMsZizK7gRXAM4EmUZHU-Y50T2WEkN1gps5wX_YEEGvgP104Wasy7cuGc5uyuXA_x6wWt2NtHYcVw20WYMBKbQdWFCa4fHBx79WwP3n45O2uJbK73Yusf7WEbHDKv2O8jWtTrxFC_DaDm91wGXfv1Bd9DYl2Qab-m9YIlfTQ1_T7oozcyk1S7LSw9zsLiAzHNQt-qw==, htt... | "KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, (...TRUNCATED) | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-cause-blackouts-across-the-country | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Rumors Swirl Around At(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vess(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the Russian Black Sea Fleet launch a Kalibr cruise missile strike from a naval vess(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-07-31T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"missile strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"seed_text(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Rumors Swirl Aro(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"e66bb325-26e3-4014-b279-72027ee6396f\", \"processing_time_ms\": 344786.02,(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Ru(...TRUNCATED) |
73040f65-4b0f-4812-9a6d-232aa136308d | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Chasiv Yar in (...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-01T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to Yes if the Russian Ministry of Defense claims control of Chasiv Yar and th(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 0 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "As of the close date of August 1, 2024, Russian forces had not seized full control of Chasiv Yar. W(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEzRZg5K0H_VJaXS0ojxxtcGZCkfYBsb6yDaHpTcByZCwHYNq6Xi7eE6HdIs9ZTk6YfXlAoPPLhZ2BAbARbJJ577V1RyS9-CYrVMO9e4pZuHW60JsVJApodPTaWm7HWwnFZNFqXEn5EWPx3tGxFg2--YiQ=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHwo7p5e8p2Wu3WNXr1OJpqVeFO... | "KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine imposed emergency power shutdowns in most of the country on Sunday, (...TRUNCATED) | https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-cause-blackouts-across-the-country | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Russian Offensive Camp(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Cha(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill Russian forces claim or be confirmed to have seized full control of the city of Cha(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-08-01T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"missile strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"seed_text(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Russian Offensiv(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"e66bb325-26e3-4014-b279-72027ee6396f\", \"processing_time_ms\": 52744.9099(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Ru(...TRUNCATED) |
91e8c883-c1a6-4c8f-ad1e-5e4ecf1b9a01 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility t(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-22T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if official U.S. Navy movements or CENTCOM statements confirm the ca(...TRUNCATED) | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "On June 22, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense officially announced that the USS Dwight D. Eisenh(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGBI_WhIyiA5B4qkra0r_yYCoJ2ifHChED9o5b8W-RvhX3nUbU6qDh9AkBQq5putJfaequN7fjrmauZdjwNCdLoajvT9Xo4r6ujntrfteKx7CgcV7EWTFPUl5mFWBudlCXpZpYtMbon-H_6i-bGJIilM49HbnaGBBo8L1VI6BQ3YDS_-r9ZekX9CKTlCoBPjcHxv1A69x_E3sWO8Nr89iKYw5c=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Ho(...TRUNCATED) | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Carrier USS Dwight D. (...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of respo(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) depart the U.S. Central Command area of respo(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-07-01T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"naval strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"seed_text\"(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Carrier USS Dwig(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a\", \"processing_time_ms\": 12530.729,(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Ca(...TRUNCATED) |
abab9c31-9bea-4149-9353-a550f06458a8 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied artillery or(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to Yes if media reports or official government statements confirm that a Russ(...TRUNCATED) | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "Following the United States' decision in late May 2024 to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied wea(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHIVeKC-K_ttkO3ZP-MboTKdEHNYUk0rAZe2MgQizF8OkLLJMLiaN9BGyxPoRqBDEys312wC1LJZkp5dg1uT3C_ANNJ5gZUOhg_G0scfOXgwcQvsf65J9CBSSi8sWXKsQIFBmLyg1joKFrUw6frx_C8c5rXC8bw9jAG_mNQ78WfLAEoC4skjeok-I_LxB7IoRSbitxpykLxQ2UY6NTvylx526FrToySc5yY0ApBHyv1SMqgjw==, https:/... | "Ukraine can now use Western arms to strike inside Russia — is it too late?\nThe US and other nati(...TRUNCATED) | https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/ukraine-can-now-use-western-arms-to-strike-inside-russia | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | missile strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Biden allows Ukraine t(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied a(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill a Russian military column be targeted and successfully struck by Western-supplied a(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-07-15T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"missile strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"seed_text(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Biden allows Ukr(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"8abfbb7d-2186-43f9-b0f3-3ac8e6c80689\", \"processing_time_ms\": 54455.074,(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Bi(...TRUNCATED) |
c9b0a454-5d8d-4c33-9115-7cedba9fa41c | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is intercepted by th(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) press releases specify that either(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 0 | 0.95 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "Based on U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) reports and Navy deployment records, neither the USS Grav(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHnF_1J8uI7vufQNJwOovXmdqyrRBqpdDSOaiAnW0-IWyenYfFA3ABYnYEF0Vf6QNI33bOS5OLuWZp3v013aiJbPEqOUB3ON5T14sWi45287x58jUokAhiwNNLdaxGHL_13EHR3mD0tXk8dc58lpryZrMnXjViybQZcT3cyu2pEs-nBtCOMAe9UUX9JafgNCXHDO75r0IsQnjCOHyFCqeg=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google... | "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Ho(...TRUNCATED) | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Navy Gave Combat Actio(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is interc(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill Houthi forces launch at least one anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) that is interc(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-07-06T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"naval strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"seed_text\"(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Navy Gave Combat(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"ff91e206-caad-49d1-b6dd-f306582e806a\", \"processing_time_ms\": 12185.51, (...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Na(...TRUNCATED) |
db940b3b-e08d-4b2a-b27d-2710458be322 | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted airstrikes(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-14T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) or the U.S. Department of Defense (...TRUNCATED) | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "The U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing 3 (CVW-3), embarked on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), conduc(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEPUJrFYOAhapA5jhNJfhAuzCahW6RF_0stA_17Fsrz0gt0n7C9r5pMPt9AlnVg7QhcC6XL-iBHOtC90ld43P-TeBcpibyjweDJilmRGofvGexufsJIfnjVKnWC7pWUBhEL41FwuR_ED3GAYI06TxH-x3Ab0EzRC5lzuXGjEHpwe7pbq1nu4Vq26B_a, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/... | "The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier strike group that for months has launched crucial strikes against Ho(...TRUNCATED) | https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/06/02/eisenhower-carrier-strike-group-deployment-extended/ | 2024-06-02T00:00:00 | naval strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Houthi rebels say at l(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the U.S. Navy Carrier Air Wing on the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conduct any targeted(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-07-16T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"naval strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-02T00:00:00\", \"seed_text\"(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Houthi rebels sa(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"89fe4713-c07c-4330-963e-94de67fab6d2\", \"processing_time_ms\": 19861.18, (...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Ho(...TRUNCATED) |
2f88aea9-5949-45ac-b0eb-b8b12b52265f | 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca | true | "Will the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure in the city (...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-14T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if official reports from the Ukrainian State Emergency Service (DSNS(...TRUNCATED) | 1 | 1 | 1 | binary | binary | binary_brier | "Between July 1 and August 31, 2024, the Russian Armed Forces conducted multiple strikes on port inf(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGsUYm4Nou88vIbUaYF7MFIXXbeSxyV76AeDMs0j8IPvhj2GTr4yx_JXcRc2Fc74fYR-rcFgheNy5bNeSPvFRrFLMvZehy_OBAOtKue4rswaOud38MEKNZTm-ktUnYhCJYWaADFEW7JoJCUFo02lrbhmNimsB_shCkLPGs733O-XUqXPDX29Of-yOQJviemBeZJxlTyT2IYgoN3bY5NhFvtAXfNW24FDQ2L3M-K6Vr5twI43gL1IjqNFBVb9... | "No evidence Russian missile strike hit 'NATO logistics hub' in Ukraine\n3 June 2024\nWhat was claim(...TRUNCATED) | https://fullfact.org/online/russian-missile-ukraine-nato/ | 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | missile strike | "NEWS:\nRecent news articles relevant to this question:\n\n---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ukraine: Russia's Odes(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure i(...TRUNCATED) | "QUESTION:\nWill the Russian Armed Forces conduct a missile or drone strike on port infrastructure i(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"date_close\": \"2024-09-01T00:00:00\", \"event_date\": \"2024-06-03T00:00:00\", \"prediction_dat(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"answer_parser_type\": null, \"answer_sources\": \"https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/ground(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"search_query\": \"missile strike\", \"seed_creation_date\": \"2024-06-03T00:00:00\", \"seed_text(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Ukraine: Russia'(...TRUNCATED) | null | "{\"parent_sample_id\": \"d808c398-3b2c-4b2a-97ab-14719c23866e\", \"processing_time_ms\": 76451.2370(...TRUNCATED) | "{\"context\": [{\"context_type\": \"NEWS_CONTEXT\", \"rendered_context\": \"---\\nARTICLES\\n[1] Uk(...TRUNCATED) |
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Military Strikes Forecasting
Public export of the LightningRod dataset 8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca created for the LightningRod Python SDK military-strikes fine-tuning example.
The dataset contains binary forecasting questions about military strikes and attack operations, with news-derived context, labels, resolution criteria, and rendered prompts for training/evaluation.
Splits
full: all 9,476 samples from the original LightningRod dataset.train: 3,578 samples after the notebook-style filtering, deduplication, temporal split, and leakage filtering.test: 993 held-out samples from the same temporal split.
Source
- LightningRod dataset ID:
8841b3cb-35c5-496f-a217-a3ec50f0bdca - SDK PR: https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk/pull/45
- Base model used in the PR experiment:
openai/gpt-oss-120b
Columns
Commonly useful columns include:
sample_idquestion_textprediction_date,date_close,resolution_dateresolution_criterialabelandcorrect_answercontext_textprompt/user_promptreasoningandanswer_sourcesraw_sample_jsonfor the original exported LightningRod sample
The prompt, correct_answer, answer_type, answer_parser_type, and reward_function_type columns are included for compatibility with LightningRod-style rendered training datasets.
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