id string | question string | category string | url string | market_prob float64 | oracle_prob float64 | edge float64 | confidence float64 | signal string | model string | backtest_acc float64 | auc float64 | modelability int64 | volume int64 | liquidity int64 | end_date timestamp[s] | captured_at string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3502014 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-al-tes-2026-08-19 | 0.0005 | 0.071 | 0.0705 | 0.854 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 1,874,268 | 891,459 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2063129 | Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-belete-molla-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia | 0.003 | 0.01 | 0.007 | 0.8061 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 31,121,882 | 27,614 | 2026-06-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3502036 | LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-we-edg-2026-08-19-game2 | 0.0005 | 0.0747 | 0.0742 | 0.8502 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 968,169 | 1,252,856 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647896 | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-fut-mgc-2026-08-19 | 0.625 | 0.6472 | 0.0222 | 0.8041 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 935,470 | 215,580 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3502035 | LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-we-edg-2026-08-19-game1 | 0.0005 | 0.0744 | 0.0739 | 0.8346 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 872,969 | 694,443 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2774057 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440 | 0.055 | 0.0588 | 0.0038 | 0.8564 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 4,872,204 | 959,318 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3502037 | LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-we-edg-2026-08-19 | 0.0005 | 0.0778 | 0.0773 | 0.8377 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 686,352 | 1,036,876 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647874 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-g2-ast10-2026-08-19 | 0.665 | 0.6821 | 0.0171 | 0.8055 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 714,323 | 220,389 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541764 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-68k-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.963 | -0.0365 | 0.8399 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 669,933 | 226,065 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647894 | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic - Map 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-fut-mgc-2026-08-19-game1 | 0.0005 | 0.0528 | 0.0523 | 0.8551 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 559,502 | 849,125 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3689366 | Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Flavio Cobolli | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-jodar-cobolli-2026-08-19 | 0.855 | 0.8604 | 0.0054 | 0.8311 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 73 | 556,798 | 427,050 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541761 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-66k-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.9643 | -0.0352 | 0.8202 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 620,923 | 104,751 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3632455 | Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-vsn2-boombo-2026-08-20 | 0.735 | 0.7563 | 0.0213 | 0.801 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 607,302 | 247,313 | 2026-08-20T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2252243 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-586 | 0.0135 | 0.01 | -0.0035 | 0.9029 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 9,954,172 | 843,734 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
677366 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-2026-936-942-271-276-578-687-312-238-912 | 0.9965 | 0.99 | -0.0065 | 0.8389 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 2,225,378 | 124,283 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559698 | Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-hakeem-jeffries-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9076 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 692,709 | 1,366,818 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559702 | Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-alex-padilla-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9092 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 677,837 | 1,464,008 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2252246 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.9086 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 6,130,934 | 1,367,977 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647895 | Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic - Map 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-fut-mgc-2026-08-19-game2 | 0.9995 | 0.9863 | -0.0132 | 0.8931 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 399,340 | 971,916 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647872 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-g2-ast10-2026-08-19-game1 | 0.0005 | 0.052 | 0.0515 | 0.8332 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 372,607 | 421,398 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647873 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-g2-ast10-2026-08-19-game2 | 0.9995 | 0.9856 | -0.0139 | 0.8828 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 70 | 366,042 | 691,479 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2772194 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-shakhtar-donetsk-win-the-2026-27-uefa-champions-league-championship-20260701202025578 | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.864 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 7,051,401 | 261,967 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2774056 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320 | 0.0065 | 0.01 | 0.0035 | 0.8864 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 15,163,243 | 532,393 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561271 | Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-alex-padilla-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9066 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 670,713 | 1,590,845 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3605778 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-17-august-19-90-114 | 0.9995 | 0.963 | -0.0365 | 0.8137 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 361,933 | 107,623 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3670532 | Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.9753 | -0.0242 | 0.8208 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 329,676 | 89,462 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2696747 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026-191 | 0.1 | 0.112 | 0.012 | 0.7506 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 1,874,798 | 335,111 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561265 | Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-jalen-brunson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.9037 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 2,688,677 | 1,920,573 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3605777 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-17-august-19-65-89 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8435 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 314,129 | 134,548 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
601835 | Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-pablo-marcal-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.008 | 0.01 | 0.002 | 0.8749 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 1,704,367 | 461,210 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561269 | Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-adam-schiff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.9034 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 670,585 | 1,809,513 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559700 | Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-adam-schiff-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.9023 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 431,311 | 1,677,902 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
1130012 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-seats-in-the-next-russian-parliamentary-election | 0.715 | 0.7305 | 0.0155 | 0.8096 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 7,431,790 | 403,126 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3564214 | Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-det-pit-2026-08-19 | 0.405 | 0.4188 | 0.0138 | 0.8178 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 75 | 261,477 | 530,116 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3676888 | LoL: Onion Team vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-ot-brt-2026-08-19 | 0.4935 | 0.5239 | 0.0304 | 0.7663 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 86 | 247,334 | 168,001 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
562010 | Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-tim-scott-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8905 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 488,112 | 952,711 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2252244 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615 | 0.705 | 0.7209 | 0.0159 | 0.8145 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 8,537,603 | 537,390 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541756 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-64k-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8423 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 259,841 | 146,430 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2910438 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-31-2026-20260713152715084-642-513-584-641-939-632-729 | 0.065 | 0.0809 | 0.0159 | 0.7809 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 68 | 2,376,624 | 140,790 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3257346 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026 | 0.715 | 0.6788 | -0.0362 | 0.7066 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 603,811 | 16,385 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561243 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0225 | 0.0176 | -0.0049 | 0.8789 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 9,910,440 | 565,252 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559701 | Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-josh-stein-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8983 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 1,206,902 | 1,635,989 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559651 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/xi-jinping-out-before-2027 | 0.0425 | 0.0382 | -0.0043 | 0.8575 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 55 | 12,281,473 | 243,020 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2252245 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649 | 0.285 | 0.2943 | 0.0093 | 0.8118 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 71 | 8,059,612 | 424,094 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2663611 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-60-day-negotiation-period-extended-20260624044855448 | 0.0165 | 0.0286 | 0.0121 | 0.8302 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 2,669,085 | 111,942 | 2026-08-20T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541716 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-2000-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.9633 | -0.0362 | 0.8075 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 202,376 | 120,645 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541752 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-62k-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8347 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 248,786 | 124,651 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3399428 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-22-2026 | 0.0105 | 0.0191 | 0.0086 | 0.8237 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 1,127,724 | 76,999 | 2026-08-22T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3502039 | Game Handicap: WE (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-we-edg-2026-08-19-game-handicap-away-1pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.0682 | 0.0677 | 0.7974 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 170,605 | 298,724 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3647885 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/cs2-furia-aur1-2026-08-19 | 0.615 | 0.6316 | 0.0166 | 0.8052 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 195,837 | 464,324 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561270 | Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-josh-stein-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8959 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 540,245 | 1,923,123 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3257342 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026 | 0.1455 | 0.1285 | -0.017 | 0.7683 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 610,926 | 32,463 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541767 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-70k-on-august-19-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8403 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 156,632 | 169,144 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541718 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-above-2100-on-august-19-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8306 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 155,023 | 114,037 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561272 | Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-candace-owens-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.894 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 458,727 | 1,819,686 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3683969 | Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Diane Parry | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/wta-swiatek-parry-2026-08-19 | 0.973 | 0.99 | 0.017 | 0.8414 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 146,763 | 499,189 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561280 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-person-ae-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0025 | 0.01 | 0.0075 | 0.8499 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 456,093 | 235,529 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
601833 | Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-tereza-cristina-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8676 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 3,989,920 | 535,434 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3505976 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-14-august-21-120-139 | 0.0005 | 0.0294 | 0.0289 | 0.7993 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 215,133 | 73,796 | 2026-08-21T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3702340 | Roehampton: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Oliver Tarvet | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-almeida-tarvet-2026-08-19 | 0.145 | 0.1446 | -0.0004 | 0.8146 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 130,565 | 393,641 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2761137 | Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-james-fishback-win-less-than-10-of-votes-in-the-florida-republican-governor-primary-20260701154239340 | 0.005 | 0.0651 | 0.0601 | 0.6907 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 244,497 | 29,020 | 2026-08-18T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3231771 | Trump out as President by August 31? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-by-august-31-20260730185655928 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.006 | 0.8362 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 52 | 1,769,233 | 172,430 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3702314 | Prague 2: Norbert Gombos vs Sean Cuenin | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-gombos-cuenin-2026-08-19 | 0.75 | 0.7692 | 0.0192 | 0.4892 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 58 | 125,096 | 307,685 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3564230 | San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-sf-cle-2026-08-19 | 0.335 | 0.3498 | 0.0148 | 0.8042 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 125,007 | 472,607 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2159718 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-september-30-256-333-352 | 0.992 | 0.9685 | -0.0235 | 0.7535 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 61 | 619,563 | 20,234 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3253022 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-a-arab-country-on-august-18-2026-20260801004719135 | 0.0125 | 0.0189 | 0.0064 | 0.7311 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 138,649 | 36,458 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3257344 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026 | 0.343 | 0.3164 | -0.0266 | 0.7241 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 76 | 531,407 | 11,321 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559677 | Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-hillary-clinton-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8924 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 57 | 43,730,297 | 2,929,035 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
561274 | Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-mike-johnson-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8913 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 350,183 | 1,495,911 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2772172 | Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-inter-milan-win-the-2026-27-uefa-champions-league-championship-20260701202025556 | 0.0225 | 0.017 | -0.0055 | 0.8493 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 286,365 | 232,009 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
559657 | Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-stephen-a-smith-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-914 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.8911 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 21,776,223 | 1,330,779 | 2028-11-07T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
601830 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-geraldo-alckmin-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0015 | 0.01 | 0.0085 | 0.8523 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 5,624,858 | 300,129 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3700196 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-september-30 | 0.695 | 0.6886 | -0.0064 | 0.7774 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 78 | 115,806 | 118,258 | 2026-09-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3703566 | Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-atl-min-2026-08-19-total-8pt5 | 0.535 | 0.5517 | 0.0167 | 0.7911 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 114,853 | 314,556 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
601827 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election | 0.0055 | 0.01 | 0.0045 | 0.8555 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 6,348,285 | 477,584 | 2026-10-04T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3565421 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-68k-on-august-20-2026 | 0.687 | 0.6563 | -0.0307 | 0.6119 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 128,904 | 11,654 | 2026-08-20T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2467360 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-ethereum-reach-2000-by-december-31-2026-from-june-8 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8423 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 160,809 | 211,429 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3307942 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-dip-to-62pt5k-in-august-2026-from-august-3 | 0.1535 | 0.2196 | 0.0661 | 0.5787 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 67 | 631,546 | 43,333 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3505989 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-14-august-21-140-159 | 0.002 | 0.0298 | 0.0278 | 0.7812 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 146,470 | 48,210 | 2026-08-21T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3605775 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-17-august-19-0-39 | 0.0005 | 0.047 | 0.0465 | 0.7849 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 134,013 | 94,290 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2771329 | Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SPORTS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-chelsea-win-the-2026-27-english-premier-league-epl-championship-20260701200428755 | 0.095 | 0.0924 | -0.0026 | 0.8048 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 56 | 451,504 | 321,942 | 2027-05-30T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3505966 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-14-august-21-100-119 | 0.0005 | 0.0122 | 0.0117 | 0.8314 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 65 | 233,569 | 153,494 | 2026-08-21T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3502038 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-we-edg-2026-08-19-total-games-2pt5 | 0.0005 | 0.06 | 0.0595 | 0.7905 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 106,062 | 203,846 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3375989 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-08-19? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lal-mad-mala-2026-08-19-mad | 0.715 | 0.7388 | 0.0238 | 0.8017 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 125,267 | 678,201 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2252242 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | ECON | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-863 | 0.0035 | 0.01 | 0.0065 | 0.8618 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 54 | 5,541,625 | 430,995 | 2026-09-16T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3605776 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-17-august-19-40-64 | 0.0005 | 0.0423 | 0.0418 | 0.7891 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 119,674 | 94,426 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541722 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-price-of-bitcoin-be-between-66000-68000-on-august-19-2026 | 0.0005 | 0.01 | 0.0095 | 0.8348 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 59 | 106,724 | 163,357 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3541750 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 19? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-60k-on-august-19-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.8299 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 51 | 137,567 | 135,619 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3689368 | Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tirante-mensik-2026-08-19 | 0.345 | 0.3527 | 0.0077 | 0.7985 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 100,759 | 317,640 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3601256 | LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy - Game 1 Winner | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/lol-ucam1-hrts-2026-08-19-game1 | 0.0005 | 0.0478 | 0.0473 | 0.8078 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 66 | 99,722 | 259,339 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2853652 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-august-31-1-893-748 | 0.983 | 0.9453 | -0.0377 | 0.7334 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 248,354 | 10,921 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3703530 | Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-det-pit-2026-08-19-total-8pt5 | 0.485 | 0.5006 | 0.0156 | 0.7873 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 74 | 96,616 | 282,631 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3565411 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 20? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-58k-on-august-20-2026 | 0.9995 | 0.99 | -0.0095 | 0.806 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 49 | 100,942 | 52,901 | 2026-08-20T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3700194 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-31 | 0.875 | 0.8627 | -0.0123 | 0.7976 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 72 | 95,191 | 380,372 | 2026-08-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3564218 | Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/mlb-atl-min-2026-08-19 | 0.505 | 0.5302 | 0.0252 | 0.7945 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 83 | 93,726 | 570,526 | 2026-08-26T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3604925 | Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/val-blg-xlg-2026-08-19 | 0.9995 | 0.973 | -0.0265 | 0.8007 | LONG NO | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 64 | 96,235 | 87,396 | 2026-08-19T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2896080 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | POLITICS | https://polymarket.com/event/will-person-f-be-the-new-republican-nominee-for-senate-in-south-carolina-20260712140628838 | 0.7745 | 0.8042 | 0.0297 | 0.5855 | LONG YES | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 69 | 1,163,133 | 64,621 | 2026-08-11T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
2307825 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | OTHER | https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-high-5pt0t-by-december-31 | 0.0695 | 0.0635 | -0.006 | 0.7625 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 53 | 190,136 | 22,028 | 2027-01-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
3257340 | Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? | CRYPTO | https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-august-2026 | 0.0685 | 0.0567 | -0.0118 | 0.7808 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 60 | 347,704 | 22,167 | 2026-09-01T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
665374 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | WORLD | https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 | 0.175 | 0.1765 | 0.0015 | 0.8343 | HOLD | logreg.updown.v1 | 0.6018 | 0.6551 | 63 | 59,006,123 | 1,152,855 | 2026-12-31T00:00:00 | 2026-08-19T16:25:10.499Z |
THE ORACLE — Polymarket predictions
Live predictions for Polymarket markets, produced by THE ORACLE — an autonomous agent funded by $ORACLE pump.fun creator fees. Each row is a baseline-model forecast over live orderbook signals (momentum, microstructure, liquidity).
predictions.json/predictions.csv— 100 markets, refreshed each agent cycle.- Columns: question, category, market_prob, oracle_prob, edge, confidence, signal, model, backtest_acc, auc, modelability, volume, liquidity, end_date, captured_at.
Not financial advice.
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