Daily Papers

Large language models (LLMs) are often equipped with multi-sample decoding strategies. An LLM implicitly defines an arithmetic code book, facilitating efficient and embarrassingly parallelizable arithmetic sampling to produce multiple samples using quasi-random codes. Traditional text generation methods, such as beam search and sampling-based techniques, have notable limitations: they lack parallelizability or diversity of sampled sequences. This study explores the potential of arithmetic sampling, contrasting it with ancestral sampling across two decoding tasks that employ multi-sample inference: chain-of-thought reasoning with self-consistency and machine translation with minimum Bayes risk decoding. Our results demonstrate that arithmetic sampling produces more diverse samples, significantly improving reasoning and translation performance as the sample size increases. We observe a 3text{-5%} point increase in accuracy on the GSM8K dataset and a 0.45text{-0.89%} point increment in COMET score for WMT19 tasks using arithmetic sampling without any significant computational overhead.

We propose a novel speculative decoding method tailored for multi-sample reasoning scenarios, such as self-consistency and Best-of-N sampling. Our method exploits the intrinsic consensus of parallel generation paths to synthesize high-quality draft tokens without requiring auxiliary models or external databases. By dynamically analyzing structural patterns across parallel reasoning paths through a probabilistic aggregation mechanism, it identifies consensus token sequences that align with the decoding distribution. Evaluations on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate a substantial improvement in draft acceptance rates over baselines, while reducing the latency in draft token construction. This work establishes a paradigm shift for efficient multi-sample inference, enabling seamless integration of speculative decoding with sampling-based reasoning techniques.

Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors. We formalize Span-Level Uncertainty Estimation (SLUE), a new task that targets the natural granularity for uncertainty: semantically coherent text spans, each conveying a single assessable unit of meaning. To address this task, we introduce SPANUQ, a lightweight probe that distills the uncertainty knowledge from expensive multi-sample inference into a single forward pass over LLM hidden states. SPANUQ employs a DETR-style span decoder to simultaneously detect spans and estimate their uncertainty via a Mixture of Beta distribution, trained with a principled combination of Beta NLL regression and contrastive ranking objectives. We construct SPANUQ-BENCH, the first span-level uncertainty benchmark comprising 20K prompts, 293K annotated spans, and continuous soft labels derived from multi-sample claim verification. Experiments on five LLM backbones show that SPANUQ consistently achieves the best span-level uncertainty quality, outperforming the strongest probe baseline and all sampling-based methods while being 10-20x faster. Its DETR-based span detector attains 0.910 F1, surpassing the best heuristic by 39.4%, enabling precise error localization that sequence-level methods cannot provide. The framework generalizes across five LLMs spanning two model families.

While LLM-based agents excel at planning and executing long action sequences, their execution often remains inconsistent across trials, limiting reliability. Consolidating agent consistency requires distilling trial-error trajectories into reusable skills that preserve task-relevant invariants while discarding trajectory-specific noise. However, in multimodal settings, the key challenge is not only that useful invariants are distributed across vision and language information, but that different modalities support different kinds of reusable skill content: while some skills are verbalizable and interpretable, others reside in perceptual evidence beyond text. Text-only skills may lose perceptual cues, whereas storing text and perception naively introduces redundancy and noise. Existing inference-time methods, such as self-consistency, improve reliability through costly multi-sample decoding, while internalization strategies lack a way to separate verbalizable skill content from residual perceptual information. To address this, we introduce Conditional Multimodal Information Bottleneck (CMIB), a method for multimodal skill construction. CMIB begins with a joint bottleneck over multimodal skills and derives an exact sequential decomposition: (1) a text-stage bottleneck distilling interpretable skill cards, and (2) a conditional multimodal bottleneck compressing only residual information in perception that remains predictive beyond text. Unlike naive two-stream formulations, CMIB explicitly conditions the multimodal latent on the text skill, thus structurally reducing cross-modal redundancy and enabling independent control over textual and perceptual compression. We instantiate CMIB with a variational objective that makes its conditional decomposition tractable to optimize, yielding reusable multimodal skills that improve execution stability without incurring multi-sample inference overhead.

Speculative decoding emerges as a pivotal technique for enhancing the inference speed of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite recent research aiming to improve prediction efficiency, multi-sample speculative decoding has been overlooked due to varying numbers of accepted tokens within a batch in the verification phase. Vanilla method adds padding tokens in order to ensure that the number of new tokens remains consistent across samples. However, this increases the computational and memory access overhead, thereby reducing the speedup ratio. We propose a novel method that can resolve the issue of inconsistent tokens accepted by different samples without necessitating an increase in memory or computing overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method can handle the situation where the prediction tokens of different samples are inconsistent without the need to add padding tokens. Sufficient experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/niyunsheng/EMS-SD.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

We present a vision-action policy that won 1st place in the 2025 BEHAVIOR Challenge - a large-scale benchmark featuring 50 diverse long-horizon household tasks in photo-realistic simulation, requiring bimanual manipulation, navigation, and context-aware decision making. Building on the Pi0.5 architecture, we introduce several innovations. Our primary contribution is correlated noise for flow matching, which improves training efficiency and enables correlation-aware inpainting for smooth action sequences. We also apply learnable mixed-layer attention and System 2 stage tracking for ambiguity resolution. Training employs multi-sample flow matching to reduce variance, while inference uses action compression and challenge-specific correction rules. Our approach achieves 26% q-score across all 50 tasks on both public and private leaderboards.

Recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) have led to notable successes in complex reasoning tasks, such as mathematical problem solving. A common strategy for improving performance is parallel thinking, in which multiple reasoning traces are generated and the final prediction is made using aggregation schemes like majority voting or best-of-N decoding. However, two key challenges persist. First, multi-sample decoding incurs substantial inference latency, especially for long-form outputs. Second, effective mechanisms for reliably assessing the correctness of individual reasoning traces are still limited. To address these challenges, we introduce One-Token Verification (OTV), a computational method that estimates reasoning correctness in a single forward pass during generation. OTV is activated by a learnable token and integrated into the LLM via low-rank adaptation to probe internal reasoning signals through the key-value cache, supporting token-level correctness estimation at any stage of generation without disrupting primary reasoning. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that OTV consistently surpasses existing verifiers. Additionally, OTV reduces token usage by up to 90% through correctness-guided early termination, prioritizing shorter, more reliable solutions.

Automated clinical diagnosis remains a core challenge in medical AI, which usually requires models to integrate multi-modal data and reason across complex, case-specific contexts. Although recent methods have advanced medical report generation (MRG) and visual question answering (VQA) with medical vision-language models (VLMs), these methods, however, predominantly operate under a sample-isolated inference paradigm, as such processing cases independently without access to longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs) or structurally related patient examples. This paradigm limits reasoning to image-derived information alone, which ignores external complementary medical evidence for potentially more accurate diagnosis. To overcome this limitation, we propose HyperWalker, a Deep Diagnosis framework that reformulates clinical reasoning via dynamic hypergraphs and test-time training. First, we construct a dynamic hypergraph, termed iBrochure, to model the structural heterogeneity of EHR data and implicit high-order associations among multimodal clinical information. Within this hypergraph, a reinforcement learning agent, Walker, navigates to and identifies optimal diagnostic paths. To ensure comprehensive coverage of diverse clinical characteristics in test samples, we incorporate a linger mechanism, a multi-hop orthogonal retrieval strategy that iteratively selects clinically complementary neighborhood cases reflecting distinct clinical attributes. Experiments on MRG with MIMIC and medical VQA on EHRXQA demonstrate that HyperWalker achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at: https://github.com/Bean-Young/HyperWalker

Diffusion models achieve high-quality sample generation at the cost of a lengthy multistep inference procedure. To overcome this, diffusion distillation techniques produce student generators capable of matching or surpassing the teacher in a single step. However, the student model's inference speed is limited by the size of the teacher architecture, preventing real-time generation for computationally heavy applications. In this work, we introduce Multi-Student Distillation (MSD), a framework to distill a conditional teacher diffusion model into multiple single-step generators. Each student generator is responsible for a subset of the conditioning data, thereby obtaining higher generation quality for the same capacity. MSD trains multiple distilled students, allowing smaller sizes and, therefore, faster inference. Also, MSD offers a lightweight quality boost over single-student distillation with the same architecture. We demonstrate MSD is effective by training multiple same-sized or smaller students on single-step distillation using distribution matching and adversarial distillation techniques. With smaller students, MSD gets competitive results with faster inference for single-step generation. Using 4 same-sized students, MSD significantly outperforms single-student baseline counterparts and achieves remarkable FID scores for one-step image generation: 1.20 on ImageNet-64x64 and 8.20 on zero-shot COCO2014.

Multi-agent coordination is crucial for reliable multi-robot navigation in shared spaces such as automated warehouses. In regions of dense robot traffic, local coordination methods may fail to find a deadlock-free solution. In these scenarios, it is appropriate to let a central unit generate a global schedule that decides the passing order of robots. However, the runtime of such centralized coordination methods increases significantly with the problem scale. In this paper, we propose to leverage Graph Neural Network Variational Autoencoders (GNN-VAE) to solve the multi-agent coordination problem at scale faster than through centralized optimization. We formulate the coordination problem as a graph problem and collect ground truth data using a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) solver. During training, our learning framework encodes good quality solutions of the graph problem into a latent space. At inference time, solution samples are decoded from the sampled latent variables, and the lowest-cost sample is selected for coordination. Finally, the feasible proposal with the highest performance index is selected for the deployment. By construction, our GNN-VAE framework returns solutions that always respect the constraints of the considered coordination problem. Numerical results show that our approach trained on small-scale problems can achieve high-quality solutions even for large-scale problems with 250 robots, being much faster than other baselines. Project page: https://mengyuest.github.io/gnn-vae-coord

Accelerated magnetic resonance (MR) imaging attempts to reduce acquisition time by collecting data below the Nyquist rate. As an ill-posed inverse problem, many plausible solutions exist, yet the majority of deep learning approaches generate only a single solution. We instead focus on sampling from the posterior distribution, which provides more comprehensive information for downstream inference tasks. To do this, we design a novel conditional normalizing flow (CNF) that infers the signal component in the measurement operator's nullspace, which is later combined with measured data to form complete images. Using fastMRI brain and knee data, we demonstrate fast inference and accuracy that surpasses recent posterior sampling techniques for MRI. Code is available at https://github.com/jwen307/mri_cnf/

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have demonstrated significant potential for high-speed inference. However, current confidence-driven decoding strategies are constrained by limited parallelism, typically achieving only 1--3 tokens per forward pass (TPF). In this work, we identify that the degree of parallelism during dLLM inference is highly sensitive to the Token Filling Order (TFO). Then, we introduce Lookahead PArallel Decoding LoPA, a training-free, plug-and-play algorithm, to identify a superior TFO and hence accelerate inference. LoPA concurrently explores distinct candidate TFOs via parallel branches, and selects the one with the highest potential for future parallelism based on branch confidence. We apply LoPA to the state-of-the-art D2F model and observe a substantial enhancement in decoding efficiency. Notably, LoPA increases the TPF of D2F-Dream to 10.1 on the GSM8K while maintaining performance superior to the Dream baseline. Furthermore, to facilitate this unprecedented degree of parallelism, we develop a specialized multi-device inference system featuring Branch Parallelism (BP), which achieves a single-sample throughput of 1073.9 tokens per second under multi-GPU deployment. The code is available at https://github.com/zhijie-group/LoPA.

Large pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) such as CLIP have demonstrated excellent zero-shot generalizability across various downstream tasks. However, recent studies have shown that the inference performance of CLIP can be greatly degraded by small adversarial perturbations, especially its visual modality, posing significant safety threats. To mitigate this vulnerability, in this paper, we propose a novel defense method called Test-Time Adversarial Prompt Tuning (TAPT) to enhance the inference robustness of CLIP against visual adversarial attacks. TAPT is a test-time defense method that learns defensive bimodal (textual and visual) prompts to robustify the inference process of CLIP. Specifically, it is an unsupervised method that optimizes the defensive prompts for each test sample by minimizing a multi-view entropy and aligning adversarial-clean distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of TAPT on 11 benchmark datasets, including ImageNet and 10 other zero-shot datasets, demonstrating that it enhances the zero-shot adversarial robustness of the original CLIP by at least 48.9% against AutoAttack (AA), while largely maintaining performance on clean examples. Moreover, TAPT outperforms existing adversarial prompt tuning methods across various backbones, achieving an average robustness improvement of at least 36.6%.

Recent advancements in timestep-distilled diffusion models have enabled high-quality image generation that rivals non-distilled multi-step models, but with significantly fewer inference steps. While such models are attractive for applications due to the low inference cost and latency, fine-tuning them with a naive diffusion objective would result in degraded and blurry outputs. An intuitive alternative is to repeat the diffusion distillation process with a fine-tuned teacher model, which produces good results but is cumbersome and computationally intensive; the distillation training usually requires magnitude higher of training compute compared to fine-tuning for specific image styles. In this paper, we present an algorithm named pairwise sample optimization (PSO), which enables the direct fine-tuning of an arbitrary timestep-distilled diffusion model. PSO introduces additional reference images sampled from the current time-step distilled model, and increases the relative likelihood margin between the training images and reference images. This enables the model to retain its few-step generation ability, while allowing for fine-tuning of its output distribution. We also demonstrate that PSO is a generalized formulation which can be flexibly extended to both offline-sampled and online-sampled pairwise data, covering various popular objectives for diffusion model preference optimization. We evaluate PSO in both preference optimization and other fine-tuning tasks, including style transfer and concept customization. We show that PSO can directly adapt distilled models to human-preferred generation with both offline and online-generated pairwise preference image data. PSO also demonstrates effectiveness in style transfer and concept customization by directly tuning timestep-distilled diffusion models.

We present the Consilium Protocol, a Byzantine Fault Tolerance-derived architecture for structured multi-model AI deliberation that treats inter-model disagreement as epistemic signal rather than error. The protocol assigns engineered cognitive personas to language models -- separating what a model is from how it reasons -- and introduces an In-Sample/Out-of-Sample validation framework adapted from quantitative finance to distinguish training-data consensus from empirically grounded conclusions. Across 1,478 deliberation sessions spanning 32 topics in 10 domain categories, we demonstrate that (1) the cognitive persona, not the underlying model, determines epistemic behavior: free edge-inference models costing 0.0002 USD per batch produced comparable analytical output to frontier models costing 10.69 USD; (2) RLHF alignment training creates measurable, domain-specific epistemic blind spots -- contested policy topics exhibit 12.3 percentage points less adversarial challenge than settled science topics, and AI safety topics show asymmetric bias (Δ=11.6%) where models challenge claims that AI is dangerous far more vigorously than claims that AI risk is overstated; (3) the protocol exhibits no directional bias of its own (immigration Δ=2.3%, renewables Δ=1.2%); and (4) out-of-sample evidence retrieval validated 239 claims with 100% evidence retrieval and surfaced 167 blind-spot discoveries invisible to training-data deliberation. Run-to-run reproducibility across randomized modeltimespersona assignments averages pm2.2% standard deviation. Total cost for the complete battery including all overhead: 217 USD. We release the protocol specification under MIT license to enable independent verification.

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

We present a system for training enterprise search agents via reinforcement learning that achieves state-of-the-art performance across a diverse suite of hard-to-verify agentic search tasks. Our work makes four core contributions. First, we introduce KARLBench, a multi-capability evaluation suite spanning six distinct search regimes, including constraint-driven entity search, cross-document report synthesis, tabular numerical reasoning, exhaustive entity retrieval, procedural reasoning over technical documentation, and fact aggregation over internal enterprise notes. Second, we show that models trained across heterogeneous search behaviors generalize substantially better than those optimized for any single benchmark. Third, we develop an agentic synthesis pipeline that employs long-horizon reasoning and tool use to generate diverse, grounded, and high-quality training data, with iterative bootstrapping from increasingly capable models. Fourth, we propose a new post-training paradigm based on iterative large-batch off-policy RL that is sample efficient, robust to train-inference engine discrepancies, and naturally extends to multi-task training with out-of-distribution generalization. Compared to Claude 4.6 and GPT 5.2, KARL is Pareto-optimal on KARLBench across cost-quality and latency-quality trade-offs, including tasks that were out-of-distribution during training. With sufficient test-time compute, it surpasses the strongest closed models. These results show that tailored synthetic data in combination with multi-task reinforcement learning enables cost-efficient and high-performing knowledge agents for grounded reasoning.

Recent advances have witnessed the effectiveness of reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). The optimization process often requires numerous iterations to achieve satisfactory performance, resulting in high computational costs due to the need for frequent prompt evaluations under intensive LLM interactions and repeated policy updates. Appropriate online prompt selection methods reduce iteration steps by prioritizing informative prompts during training, while the pipeline's reliance on exhaustive prompt evaluation and subset selection for optimization still incurs substantial computational overhead due to frequent LLM inference calls. Distinguished from these direct evaluate-then-select schemes, this work investigates iterative approximate evaluation for arbitrary prompts and introduces Model Predictive Prompt Selection (MoPPS), a Bayesian risk-predictive framework that online estimates prompt difficulty without requiring costly LLM interactions. Technically, MoPPS models each prompt's success rate as a latent variable, performs streaming Bayesian inference, and employs posterior sampling in a constructed multi-armed bandit machine, enabling sample efficient and adaptive prompt selection. Extensive experiments across mathematics, planning, and vision-based geometry tasks show that MoPPS reliably predicts prompt difficulty and accelerates training with significantly reduced LLM rollouts.

Polysomnography (PSG) provides the gold standard for sleep assessment but suffers from substantial heterogeneity across recording devices and cohorts. There have been growing efforts to build general-purpose foundation models (FMs) for sleep physiology, but lack an in-depth understanding of the pre-training process and scaling patterns that lead to more generalizable sleep FMs. To fill this gap, we curate a massive corpus of 166,500 hours of sleep recordings from nine public sources and establish SleepBench, a comprehensive, fully open-source benchmark. Leveraging SleepBench, we systematically evaluate four families of self-supervised pre-training objectives and uncover three critical findings: (1) existing FMs fail to generalize to missing channels at inference; (2) channel-invariant feature learning is essential for pre-training; and (3) scaling sample size, model capacity, and multi-source data mixture consistently improves downstream performance.With an enhanced pre-training and scaling recipe, we introduce OSF, a family of sleep FMs that achieves state-of-the-art performance across nine datasets on diverse sleep and disease prediction tasks. Further analysis of OSF also reveals intriguing properties in sample efficiency, hierarchical aggregation, and cross-dataset scaling.

Accurately predicting the three-dimensional structures of protein-ligand complexes remains a fundamental challenge in computational drug discovery that limits the pace and success of therapeutic design. Deep learning methods have recently shown strong potential as structural prediction tools, achieving promising accuracy across diverse biomolecular systems. However, their performance and utility are constrained by scarce experimental data, inefficient architectures, physically invalid poses, and the limited ability to exploit auxiliary information available at inference. To address these issues, we introduce Pearl (Placing Every Atom in the Right Location), a foundation model for protein-ligand cofolding at scale. Pearl addresses these challenges with three key innovations: (1) training recipes that include large-scale synthetic data to overcome data scarcity; (2) architectures that incorporate an SO(3)-equivariant diffusion module to inherently respect 3D rotational symmetries, improving generalization and sample efficiency, and (3) controllable inference, including a generalized multi-chain templating system supporting both protein and non-polymeric components as well as dual unconditional/conditional modes. Pearl establishes a new state-of-the-art performance in protein-ligand cofolding. On the key metric of generating accurate (RMSD < 2 Å) and physically valid poses, Pearl surpasses AlphaFold 3 and other open source baselines on the public Runs N' Poses and PoseBusters benchmarks, delivering 14.5% and 14.2% improvements, respectively, over the next best model. In the pocket-conditional cofolding regime, Pearl delivers 3.6times improvement on a proprietary set of challenging, real-world drug targets at the more rigorous RMSD < 1 Å threshold. Finally, we demonstrate that model performance correlates directly with synthetic dataset size used in training.

Given a question, a language model (LM) implicitly encodes a distribution over possible answers. In practice, post-training procedures for LMs often collapse this distribution onto a single dominant mode. While this is generally not a problem for benchmark-style evaluations that assume one correct answer, many real-world tasks inherently involve multiple valid answers or irreducible uncertainty. Examples include medical diagnosis, ambiguous question answering, and settings with incomplete information. In these cases, we would like LMs to generate multiple plausible hypotheses, ideally with confidence estimates for each one, and without computationally intensive repeated sampling to generate non-modal answers. This paper describes a multi-answer reinforcement learning approach for training LMs to perform distributional reasoning over multiple answers during inference. We modify the RL objective to enable models to explicitly generate multiple candidate answers in a single forward pass, internalizing aspects of inference-time search into the model's generative process. Across question-answering, medical diagnostic, and coding benchmarks, we observe improved diversity, coverage, and set-level calibration scores compared to single answer trained baselines. Models trained with our approach require fewer tokens to generate multiple answers than competing approaches. On coding tasks, they are also substantially more accurate. These results position multi-answer RL as a principled and compute-efficient alternative to inference-time scaling procedures such as best-of-k. Code and more information can be found at https://multi-answer-rl.github.io/.

Repeated Sampling (RS) is a simple inference-time algorithm that has been shown to improve model performance on complex tasks. Although it is an effective way of scaling inference time, it often struggles to generate diverse solution candidates, frequently relying on the same underlying approach to solve the problem and thus producing redundant samples. To address this limitation, we propose a new inference algorithm, GuidedSampling, which decouples the exploration and generation phases during inference, increasing diversity of generated candidate solutions. The exploration phase identifies multiple concepts that can be utilized to solve the problem, while the generation phase applies a specific concept to provide final solution candidates. We first define the theoretical bounds of GuidedSampling and then empirically demonstrate that it improves the performance of base model at pass@50 by on an average ~21.6% across various benchmarks compared to RS. Furthermore, models trained on trajectories of GuidedSampling exhibit substantial performance improvements at pass@5 by on an average ~9.7%, compared to models trained on traditional RS. Additionally, models trained with GuidedSampling increases the average number of concepts per instance (1.67 -> 3.03), yielding a diverse set of candidates than traditional RS.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a framework for solving sequential decision-making problems. In this work, we demonstrate that, surprisingly, RL emerges during the inference time of large language models (LLMs), a phenomenon we term in-context RL (ICRL). To reveal this capability, we introduce a simple multi-round prompting framework, we call ICRL prompting, for inference-time self-improvement. The goal of ICRL prompting is to guide LLMs to perform reinforcement learning during inference for self-improvement on a given task. After each response, the model receives numerical scalar feedback, denoted as a reward. In the next round, we prompt the LLM again together with a context that concatenates all prior responses and their associated rewards. We consistently observe that response quality improves as the context grows. In other words, the LLM can optimize scalar reward signals during inference, exhibiting behavior analogous to reinforcement learning. We evaluate ICRL prompting on Game of 24, creative writing, ScienceWorld, and Olympiad-level math competitions (AIME and HMMT), demonstrating significant improvements over baselines such as Self-Refine and Reflexion. Notably, even when the reward signals are generated by the same LLM, ICRL prompting still improves performance, highlighting a promising new paradigm for test-time scaling.

Recent advancements in generative models, particularly large language models (LLMs) and diffusion models, have been driven by extensive pretraining on large datasets followed by post-training. However, current post-training methods such as reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) and direct alignment from preference methods (DAP) primarily utilize single-sample comparisons. These approaches often fail to capture critical characteristics such as generative diversity and bias, which are more accurately assessed through multiple samples. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel approach that extends post-training to include multi-sample comparisons. To achieve this, we propose Multi-sample Direct Preference Optimization (mDPO) and Multi-sample Identity Preference Optimization (mIPO). These methods improve traditional DAP methods by focusing on group-wise characteristics. Empirically, we demonstrate that multi-sample comparison is more effective in optimizing collective characteristics~(e.g., diversity and bias) for generative models than single-sample comparison. Additionally, our findings suggest that multi-sample comparisons provide a more robust optimization framework, particularly for dataset with label noise.

Experiments with pre-trained models such as BERT are often based on a single checkpoint. While the conclusions drawn apply to the artifact tested in the experiment (i.e., the particular instance of the model), it is not always clear whether they hold for the more general procedure which includes the architecture, training data, initialization scheme, and loss function. Recent work has shown that repeating the pre-training process can lead to substantially different performance, suggesting that an alternate strategy is needed to make principled statements about procedures. To enable researchers to draw more robust conclusions, we introduce the MultiBERTs, a set of 25 BERT-Base checkpoints, trained with similar hyper-parameters as the original BERT model but differing in random weight initialization and shuffling of training data. We also define the Multi-Bootstrap, a non-parametric bootstrap method for statistical inference designed for settings where there are multiple pre-trained models and limited test data. To illustrate our approach, we present a case study of gender bias in coreference resolution, in which the Multi-Bootstrap lets us measure effects that may not be detected with a single checkpoint. We release our models and statistical library along with an additional set of 140 intermediate checkpoints captured during pre-training to facilitate research on learning dynamics.

We present a complete theoretical characterization of Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a principled framework for aggregating multiple heterogeneous evidence items in probabilistic prediction tasks. Multi-evidence reasoning arises pervasively in high-stakes domains including healthcare diagnosis, financial risk assessment, legal case analysis, and regulatory compliance, yet existing approaches either lack formal guarantees or fail to handle multi-evidence scenarios architecturally. LPF encodes each evidence item into a Gaussian latent posterior via a variational autoencoder, converting posteriors to soft factors through Monte Carlo marginalization, and aggregating factors via exact Sum-Product Network inference (LPF-SPN) or a learned neural aggregator (LPF-Learned). We prove seven formal guarantees spanning the key desiderata for trustworthy AI: Calibration Preservation (ECE <= epsilon + C/sqrt(K_eff)); Monte Carlo Error decaying as O(1/sqrt(M)); a non-vacuous PAC-Bayes bound with train-test gap of 0.0085 at N=4200; operation within 1.12x of the information-theoretic lower bound; graceful degradation as O(epsilon*delta*sqrt(K)) under corruption, maintaining 88% performance with half of evidence adversarially replaced; O(1/sqrt(K)) calibration decay with R^2=0.849; and exact epistemic-aleatoric uncertainty decomposition with error below 0.002%. All theorems are empirically validated on controlled datasets spanning up to 4,200 training examples. Our theoretical framework establishes LPF as a foundation for trustworthy multi-evidence AI in safety-critical applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) with chain-of-thought (COT) prompting have demonstrated impressive abilities on simple nature language inference tasks. However, they tend to perform poorly on Multi-hop Question Answering (MHQA) tasks due to several challenges, including hallucination, error propagation and limited context length. We propose a prompting method, Finite State Machine (FSM) to enhance the reasoning capabilities of LLM for complex tasks in addition to improved effectiveness and trustworthiness. Different from COT methods, FSM addresses MHQA by iteratively decomposing a question into multi-turn sub-questions, and self-correcting in time, improving the accuracy of answers in each step. Specifically, FSM addresses one sub-question at a time and decides on the next step based on its current result and state, in an automaton-like format. Experiments on benchmarks show the effectiveness of our method. Although our method performs on par with the baseline on relatively simpler datasets, it excels on challenging datasets like Musique. Moreover, this approach mitigates the hallucination phenomenon, wherein the correct final answer can be recovered despite errors in intermediate reasoning. Furthermore, our method improves LLMs' ability to follow specified output format requirements, significantly reducing the difficulty of answer interpretation and the need for reformatting.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Scaling test-time compute brings substantial performance gains for large language models (LLMs). By sampling multiple answers and heuristically aggregate their answers (e.g., either through majority voting or using verifiers to rank the answers), one can achieve consistent performance gains in math domains. In this paper, we propose a new way to leverage such multiple sample set. We train a compact LLM, called Sample Set Aggregator (SSA), that takes a concatenated sequence of multiple samples and output the final answer, optimizing it for the answer accuracy with reinforcement learning. Experiments on multiple reasoning datasets show that SSA outperforms other test-time scaling methods such as reward model-based re-ranking. Our approach also shows a promising generalization ability, across sample set sizes, base model families and scales, and tasks. By separating LLMs to generate answers and LLMs to analyze and aggregate sampled answers, our approach can work with the outputs from premier black box models easily and efficiently.

Most Reading Comprehension methods limit themselves to queries which can be answered using a single sentence, paragraph, or document. Enabling models to combine disjoint pieces of textual evidence would extend the scope of machine comprehension methods, but currently there exist no resources to train and test this capability. We propose a novel task to encourage the development of models for text understanding across multiple documents and to investigate the limits of existing methods. In our task, a model learns to seek and combine evidence - effectively performing multi-hop (alias multi-step) inference. We devise a methodology to produce datasets for this task, given a collection of query-answer pairs and thematically linked documents. Two datasets from different domains are induced, and we identify potential pitfalls and devise circumvention strategies. We evaluate two previously proposed competitive models and find that one can integrate information across documents. However, both models struggle to select relevant information, as providing documents guaranteed to be relevant greatly improves their performance. While the models outperform several strong baselines, their best accuracy reaches 42.9% compared to human performance at 74.0% - leaving ample room for improvement.

Lightweight inference is critical for biomolecular structure prediction and other downstream tasks, enabling efficient real-world deployment and inference-time scaling for large-scale applications. In this work, we address the challenge of balancing model efficiency and prediction accuracy by making several key modifications, 1) Multi-step AF3 sampler is replaced by a few-step ODE sampler, significantly reducing computational overhead for the diffusion module part during inference; 2) In the open-source Protenix framework, a subset of pairformer or diffusion transformer blocks doesn't make contributions to the final structure prediction, presenting opportunities for architectural pruning and lightweight redesign; 3) A model incorporating an ESM module is trained to substitute the conventional MSA module, reducing MSA preprocessing time. Building on these key insights, we present Protenix-Mini, a compact and optimized model designed for efficient protein structure prediction. This streamlined version incorporates a more efficient architectural design with a two-step Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) sampling strategy. By eliminating redundant Transformer components and refining the sampling process, Protenix-Mini significantly reduces model complexity with slight accuracy drop. Evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that it achieves high-fidelity predictions, with only a negligible 1 to 5 percent decrease in performance on benchmark datasets compared to its full-scale counterpart. This makes Protenix-Mini an ideal choice for applications where computational resources are limited but accurate structure prediction remains crucial.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have shifted focus toward scaling inference-time compute, improving performance without retraining the model. A common approach is to sample multiple outputs in parallel, and select one of these as the final output. However, work to date has focused on English and a handful of domains such as math and code. In contrast, we are most interested in techniques that generalize across open-ended tasks, formally verifiable tasks, and across languages. In this work, we study how to robustly scale inference-time compute for open-ended generative tasks in a multilingual, multi-task setting. Our findings show that both sampling strategy based on temperature variation and selection strategy must be adapted to account for diverse domains and varied language settings. We evaluate existing selection methods, revealing that strategies effective in English often fail to generalize across languages. We propose novel sampling and selection strategies specifically adapted for multilingual and multi-task inference scenarios, and show they yield notable gains across languages and tasks. In particular, our combined sampling and selection methods lead to an average +6.8 jump in win-rates for our 8B models on m-ArenaHard-v2.0 prompts, against proprietary models such as Gemini. At larger scale, Command-A (111B model) equipped with our methods, shows +9.0 improvement in win-rates on the same benchmark with just five samples against single-sample decoding, a substantial increase at minimal cost. Our results underscore the need for language- and task-aware approaches to inference-time compute, aiming to democratize performance improvements in underrepresented languages.

The proliferation of large language models (LLMs) in the real world has come with a rise in copyright cases against companies for training their models on unlicensed data from the internet. Recent works have presented methods to identify if individual text sequences were members of the model's training data, known as membership inference attacks (MIAs). We demonstrate that the apparent success of these MIAs is confounded by selecting non-members (text sequences not used for training) belonging to a different distribution from the members (e.g., temporally shifted recent Wikipedia articles compared with ones used to train the model). This distribution shift makes membership inference appear successful. However, most MIA methods perform no better than random guessing when discriminating between members and non-members from the same distribution (e.g., in this case, the same period of time). Even when MIAs work, we find that different MIAs succeed at inferring membership of samples from different distributions. Instead, we propose a new dataset inference method to accurately identify the datasets used to train large language models. This paradigm sits realistically in the modern-day copyright landscape, where authors claim that an LLM is trained over multiple documents (such as a book) written by them, rather than one particular paragraph. While dataset inference shares many of the challenges of membership inference, we solve it by selectively combining the MIAs that provide positive signal for a given distribution, and aggregating them to perform a statistical test on a given dataset. Our approach successfully distinguishes the train and test sets of different subsets of the Pile with statistically significant p-values < 0.1, without any false positives.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

Large language models deployed in regulated industries operate under two constraints: compliance enforcement and cost efficiency. Personally identifiable information (PII) in user queries can reach model endpoints before the system determines whether that data should leave its jurisdictional boundary. Serving all queries through a single large model consumes full GPU capacity regardless of query complexity while offering no mechanism for geographic routing. Mixture-of-Experts architectures do not address this routing occurs between expert layers within the model after data has already arrived at the endpoint, with all experts loaded in memory regardless of query complexity. We propose a classifier-gated routing architecture that enforces compliance by design. A trained encoder classifier sits before any decoder inference, evaluating each query for complexity and data sensitivity, then routing it to an appropriately sized dense model in the appropriate geographic location. PII-containing queries route to local endpoints before any LLM computation begins, making data residency violations structurally impossible. Simple queries reach small, fast models at a fraction of the cost. Our evaluation on 600 queries demonstrates 39% median latency reduction, 33-52% cost savings depending on query distribution, and generation throughput of 122-200 tokens/second versus 50-64 for the baseline. The encoder classifier achieves 99.2% accuracy with near-perfect PII recall at 7ms inference overhead, establishing pre-inference classification as a practical path to compliance-by-design LLM deployment.

Answering multi-hop reasoning questions requires retrieving and synthesizing information from diverse sources. Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to perform such reasoning consistently. Here we propose an approach to pinpoint and rectify multi-hop reasoning failures through targeted memory injections on LLM attention heads. First, we analyze the per-layer activations of GPT-2 models in response to single and multi-hop prompts. We then propose a mechanism that allows users to inject pertinent prompt-specific information, which we refer to as "memories," at critical LLM locations during inference. By thus enabling the LLM to incorporate additional relevant information during inference, we enhance the quality of multi-hop prompt completions. We show empirically that a simple, efficient, and targeted memory injection into a key attention layer can often increase the probability of the desired next token in multi-hop tasks, by up to 424%.

Compared to traditional machine learning models, recent large language models (LLMs) can exhibit multi-task-solving capabilities through multiple dialogues and multi-modal data sources. These unique characteristics of LLMs, together with their large model size, make their deployment more challenging. Specifically, (i) deploying LLMs on local devices faces computational, memory, and energy resource issues, while (ii) deploying them in the cloud cannot guarantee real-time service and incurs communication/usage costs. In this paper, we design TMO, a local-cloud LLM inference system with Three-M Offloading: Multi-modal, Multi-task, and Multi-dialogue. TMO incorporates (i) a lightweight local LLM that can process simple tasks at high speed and (ii) a large-scale cloud LLM that can handle multi-modal data sources. We develop a resource-constrained reinforcement learning (RCRL) strategy for TMO that optimizes the inference location (i.e., local vs. cloud) and multi-modal data sources to use for each task/dialogue, aiming to maximize the long-term reward (response quality, latency, and usage cost) while adhering to resource constraints. We also contribute M4A1, a new dataset we curated that contains reward and cost metrics across multiple modality, task, dialogue, and LLM configurations, enabling evaluation of offloading decisions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TMO compared to several exploration-decision and LLM-as-Agent baselines, showing significant improvements in latency, cost, and response quality.

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Large language models(LLMs) are now used to power complex multi-turn agentic workflows. Existing systems run agentic inference by loosely assembling isolated components: an LLM inference engine (e.g., vLLM) and a tool orchestrator (e.g., Kubernetes). Although agentic workflows involve multiple LLM and tool requests, these systems schedule and allocate resources separately on a per-request basis, without end-to-end knowledge of the workflow. This leads to sub-optimal management of KV cache and tool execution environments. To address the challenges, we propose ThunderAgent, a fast, simple, and program-aware agentic inference system. We first abstract agentic workflows as LLM Programs, enabling a unified view of heterogeneous resources, including KV caches, system states, and external tool assets such as disk memory and network ports. Built upon this abstraction, ThunderAgent introduces a program-aware scheduler and a tool resource manager designed to maximize KV cache hit rates, mitigate memory imbalances, and enable asynchronous environment preparation. Evaluations across coding, routing, and scientific discovery agents demonstrate that ThunderAgent achieves 1.5-3.6x throughput improvements in serving, 1.8-3.9x in RL rollout, and up to 4.2x disk memory savings compared to state-of-the-art inference systems. To facilitate reproducibility and support future development, we open-source the system implementations of the whole ThunderAgent at: https://github.com/Agentic-Kinetics/ThunderAgent.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly powerful, the sequential nature of autoregressive generation creates a fundamental throughput bottleneck that limits the practical deployment. While Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has demonstrated remarkable benefits for model training efficiency and performance, its inherent potential for inference acceleration remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces FastMTP, a simple yet effective method that improves multi-step draft quality by aligning MTP training with its inference pattern, significantly enhancing speculative decoding performance. Our approach fine-tunes a single MTP head with position-shared weights on self-distilled data, enabling it to capture dependencies among consecutive future tokens and maintain high acceptance rates across multiple recursive draft steps. By integrating language-aware dynamic vocabulary compression into the MTP head, we further reduce computational overhead in the drafting process. Experimental results across seven diverse benchmarks demonstrate that FastMTP achieves an average of 2.03x speedup compared to standard next token prediction with lossless output quality, outperforming vanilla MTP by 82%. FastMTP requires only lightweight training and seamlessly integrates with existing inference frameworks, offering a practical and rapidly deployable solution for accelerating LLM inference.

Human perception is structured around objects which form the basis for our higher-level cognition and impressive systematic generalization abilities. Yet most work on representation learning focuses on feature learning without even considering multiple objects, or treats segmentation as an (often supervised) preprocessing step. Instead, we argue for the importance of learning to segment and represent objects jointly. We demonstrate that, starting from the simple assumption that a scene is composed of multiple entities, it is possible to learn to segment images into interpretable objects with disentangled representations. Our method learns -- without supervision -- to inpaint occluded parts, and extrapolates to scenes with more objects and to unseen objects with novel feature combinations. We also show that, due to the use of iterative variational inference, our system is able to learn multi-modal posteriors for ambiguous inputs and extends naturally to sequences.

This paper presents a simple, effective, and cost-efficient strategy to improve LLM performance by scaling test-time compute. Our strategy builds upon the repeated-sampling-then-voting framework, with a novel twist: incorporating multiple models, even weaker ones, to leverage their complementary strengths that potentially arise from diverse training data and paradigms. By using consistency as a signal, our strategy dynamically switches between models. Theoretical analysis highlights the efficiency and performance advantages of our strategy. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that our strategy not only outperforms self-consistency and state-of-the-art multi-agent debate approaches, but also significantly reduces inference costs. Additionally, ModelSwitch requires only a few comparable LLMs to achieve optimal performance and can be extended with verification methods, demonstrating the potential of leveraging multiple LLMs in the generation-verification paradigm.

Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable success by integrating visual and textual modalities. However, they incur significant computational overhead due to the large number of vision tokens processed, limiting their practicality in resource-constrained environments. We introduce Language-Guided Vision Token Pruning (LVPruning) for MLLMs, an effective yet simple method that significantly reduces the computational burden while preserving model performance. LVPruning employs cross-attention modules to compute the importance of vision tokens based on their interaction with language tokens, determining which to prune. Importantly, LVPruning can be integrated without modifying the original MLLM parameters, which makes LVPruning simple to apply or remove. Our experiments show that LVPruning can effectively reduce up to 90% of vision tokens by the middle layer of LLaVA-1.5, resulting in a 62.1% decrease in inference Tera Floating-Point Operations Per Second (TFLOPs), with an average performance loss of just 0.45% across nine multi-modal benchmarks.

The goal of two-sample tests is to assess whether two samples, S_P sim P^n and S_Q sim Q^m, are drawn from the same distribution. Perhaps intriguingly, one relatively unexplored method to build two-sample tests is the use of binary classifiers. In particular, construct a dataset by pairing the n examples in S_P with a positive label, and by pairing the m examples in S_Q with a negative label. If the null hypothesis "P = Q" is true, then the classification accuracy of a binary classifier on a held-out subset of this dataset should remain near chance-level. As we will show, such Classifier Two-Sample Tests (C2ST) learn a suitable representation of the data on the fly, return test statistics in interpretable units, have a simple null distribution, and their predictive uncertainty allow to interpret where P and Q differ. The goal of this paper is to establish the properties, performance, and uses of C2ST. First, we analyze their main theoretical properties. Second, we compare their performance against a variety of state-of-the-art alternatives. Third, we propose their use to evaluate the sample quality of generative models with intractable likelihoods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Fourth, we showcase the novel application of GANs together with C2ST for causal discovery.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Recent advances demonstrate that increasing inference-time computation can significantly boost the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Although repeated sampling (i.e., generating multiple candidate outputs) is a highly effective strategy, it does not leverage external feedback signals for refinement, which are often available in tasks like coding. In this work, we propose Adaptive Branching Monte Carlo Tree Search (AB-MCTS), a novel inference-time framework that generalizes repeated sampling with principled multi-turn exploration and exploitation. At each node in the search tree, AB-MCTS dynamically decides whether to "go wider" by expanding new candidate responses or "go deeper" by revisiting existing ones based on external feedback signals. We evaluate our method on complex coding and engineering tasks using frontier models. Empirical results show that AB-MCTS consistently outperforms both repeated sampling and standard MCTS, underscoring the importance of combining the response diversity of LLMs with multi-turn solution refinement for effective inference-time scaling.

Reasoning is central to a wide range of intellectual activities, and while the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) continue to advance, their performance in reasoning tasks remains limited. The processes and mechanisms underlying reasoning are not yet fully understood, but key elements include path exploration, selection of relevant knowledge, and multi-step inference. Problems are solved through the synthesis of these components. In this paper, we propose a benchmark that focuses on a specific aspect of reasoning ability: the direct evaluation of multi-step inference. To this end, we design a special reasoning task where multi-step inference is specifically focused by largely eliminating path exploration and implicit knowledge utilization. Our dataset comprises pairs of explicit instructions and corresponding questions, where the procedures necessary for solving the questions are entirely detailed within the instructions. This setup allows models to solve problems solely by following the provided directives. By constructing problems that require varying numbers of steps to solve and evaluating responses at each step, we enable a thorough assessment of state-of-the-art LLMs' ability to follow instructions. To ensure the robustness of our evaluation, we include multiple distinct tasks. Furthermore, by comparing accuracy across tasks, utilizing step-aware metrics, and applying separately defined measures of complexity, we conduct experiments that offer insights into the capabilities and limitations of LLMs in reasoning tasks. Our findings have significant implications for the development of LLMs and highlight areas for future research in advancing their reasoning abilities. Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ifujisawa/procbench and code at https://github.com/ifujisawa/proc-bench.

Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLMs) leverages Large Language Models as a cognitive framework for diverse visual-language tasks. Recent efforts have been made to equip MLLMs with visual perceiving and grounding capabilities. However, there still remains a gap in providing fine-grained pixel-level perceptions and extending interactions beyond text-specific inputs. In this work, we propose {AnyRef}, a general MLLM model that can generate pixel-wise object perceptions and natural language descriptions from multi-modality references, such as texts, boxes, images, or audio. This innovation empowers users with greater flexibility to engage with the model beyond textual and regional prompts, without modality-specific designs. Through our proposed refocusing mechanism, the generated grounding output is guided to better focus on the referenced object, implicitly incorporating additional pixel-level supervision. This simple modification utilizes attention scores generated during the inference of LLM, eliminating the need for extra computations while exhibiting performance enhancements in both grounding masks and referring expressions. With only publicly available training data, our model achieves state-of-the-art results across multiple benchmarks, including diverse modality referring segmentation and region-level referring expression generation.

Existing methods for capturing datasets of 3D heads in dense semantic correspondence are slow, and commonly address the problem in two separate steps; multi-view stereo (MVS) reconstruction followed by non-rigid registration. To simplify this process, we introduce TEMPEH (Towards Estimation of 3D Meshes from Performances of Expressive Heads) to directly infer 3D heads in dense correspondence from calibrated multi-view images. Registering datasets of 3D scans typically requires manual parameter tuning to find the right balance between accurately fitting the scans surfaces and being robust to scanning noise and outliers. Instead, we propose to jointly register a 3D head dataset while training TEMPEH. Specifically, during training we minimize a geometric loss commonly used for surface registration, effectively leveraging TEMPEH as a regularizer. Our multi-view head inference builds on a volumetric feature representation that samples and fuses features from each view using camera calibration information. To account for partial occlusions and a large capture volume that enables head movements, we use view- and surface-aware feature fusion, and a spatial transformer-based head localization module, respectively. We use raw MVS scans as supervision during training, but, once trained, TEMPEH directly predicts 3D heads in dense correspondence without requiring scans. Predicting one head takes about 0.3 seconds with a median reconstruction error of 0.26 mm, 64% lower than the current state-of-the-art. This enables the efficient capture of large datasets containing multiple people and diverse facial motions. Code, model, and data are publicly available at https://tempeh.is.tue.mpg.de.

We study the problem of efficient generative inference for Transformer models, in one of its most challenging settings: large deep models, with tight latency targets and long sequence lengths. Better understanding of the engineering tradeoffs for inference for large Transformer-based models is important as use cases of these models are growing rapidly throughout application areas. We develop a simple analytical model for inference efficiency to select the best multi-dimensional partitioning techniques optimized for TPU v4 slices based on the application requirements. We combine these with a suite of low-level optimizations to achieve a new Pareto frontier on the latency and model FLOPS utilization (MFU) tradeoffs on 500B+ parameter models that outperforms the FasterTransformer suite of benchmarks. We further show that with appropriate partitioning, the lower memory requirements of multiquery attention (i.e. multiple query heads share single key/value head) enables scaling up to 32x larger context lengths. Finally, we achieve a low-batch-size latency of 29ms per token during generation (using int8 weight quantization) and a 76% MFU during large-batch-size processing of input tokens, while supporting a long 2048-token context length on the PaLM 540B parameter model.

The recent surge in popularity of Nano-Banana and Seedream 4.0 underscores the community's strong interest in multi-image composition tasks. Compared to single-image editing, multi-image composition presents significantly greater challenges in terms of consistency and quality, yet existing models have not disclosed specific methodological details for achieving high-quality fusion. Through statistical analysis, we identify Human-Object Interaction (HOI) as the most sought-after category by the community. We therefore systematically analyze and implement a state-of-the-art solution for multi-image composition with a primary focus on HOI-centric tasks. We present Skywork UniPic 3.0, a unified multimodal framework that integrates single-image editing and multi-image composition. Our model supports an arbitrary (1~6) number and resolution of input images, as well as arbitrary output resolutions (within a total pixel budget of 1024x1024). To address the challenges of multi-image composition, we design a comprehensive data collection, filtering, and synthesis pipeline, achieving strong performance with only 700K high-quality training samples. Furthermore, we introduce a novel training paradigm that formulates multi-image composition as a sequence-modeling problem, transforming conditional generation into unified sequence synthesis. To accelerate inference, we integrate trajectory mapping and distribution matching into the post-training stage, enabling the model to produce high-fidelity samples in just 8 steps and achieve a 12.5x speedup over standard synthesis sampling. Skywork UniPic 3.0 achieves state-of-the-art performance on single-image editing benchmark and surpasses both Nano-Banana and Seedream 4.0 on multi-image composition benchmark, thereby validating the effectiveness of our data pipeline and training paradigm. Code, models and dataset are publicly available.

It is a common practice for recent works in vision language cross-modal reasoning to adopt a binary or multi-choice classification formulation taking as input a set of source image(s) and textual query. In this work, we take a sober look at such an unconditional formulation in the sense that no prior knowledge is specified with respect to the source image(s). Inspired by the designs of both visual commonsense reasoning and natural language inference tasks, we propose a new task termed Premise-based Multi-modal Reasoning(PMR) where a textual premise is the background presumption on each source image. The PMR dataset contains 15,360 manually annotated samples which are created by a multi-phase crowd-sourcing process. With selected high-quality movie screenshots and human-curated premise templates from 6 pre-defined categories, we ask crowd-source workers to write one true hypothesis and three distractors (4 choices) given the premise and image through a cross-check procedure. Besides, we generate adversarial samples to alleviate the annotation artifacts and double the size of PMR. We benchmark various state-of-the-art (pretrained) multi-modal inference models on PMR and conduct comprehensive experimental analyses to showcase the utility of our dataset.

Estimating post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately is crucial for ranking systems in industrial applications such as recommendation and advertising. Conventional CVR modeling applies popular deep learning methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance. However it encounters several task-specific problems in practice, making CVR modeling challenging. For example, conventional CVR models are trained with samples of clicked impressions while utilized to make inference on the entire space with samples of all impressions. This causes a sample selection bias problem. Besides, there exists an extreme data sparsity problem, making the model fitting rather difficult. In this paper, we model CVR in a brand-new perspective by making good use of sequential pattern of user actions, i.e., impression -> click -> conversion. The proposed Entire Space Multi-task Model (ESMM) can eliminate the two problems simultaneously by i) modeling CVR directly over the entire space, ii) employing a feature representation transfer learning strategy. Experiments on dataset gathered from Taobao's recommender system demonstrate that ESMM significantly outperforms competitive methods. We also release a sampling version of this dataset to enable future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first public dataset which contains samples with sequential dependence of click and conversion labels for CVR modeling.

This paper presents a SYCL implementation of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), which targets and is optimized for the Intel Data Center GPU Max 1550. To increase the performance, our implementation minimizes the slow global memory accesses by maximizing the data reuse within the general register file and the shared local memory by fusing the operations in each layer of the MLP. We show with a simple roofline model that this results in a significant increase in the arithmetic intensity, leading to improved performance, especially for inference. We compare our approach to a similar CUDA implementation for MLPs and show that our implementation on the Intel Data Center GPU outperforms the CUDA implementation on Nvidia's H100 GPU by a factor up to 2.84 in inference and 1.75 in training. The paper also showcases the efficiency of our SYCL implementation in three significant areas: Image Compression, Neural Radiance Fields, and Physics-Informed Machine Learning. In all cases, our implementation outperforms the off-the-shelf Intel Extension for PyTorch (IPEX) implementation on the same Intel GPU by up to a factor of 30 and the CUDA PyTorch version on Nvidia's H100 GPU by up to a factor 19. The code can be found at https://github.com/intel/tiny-dpcpp-nn.

Generative models have shown great potential in trajectory planning. Recent studies demonstrate that anchor-guided generative models are effective in modeling the uncertainty of driving behaviors and improving overall performance. However, these methods rely on discrete anchor vocabularies that must sufficiently cover the trajectory distribution during testing to ensure robustness, inducing an inherent trade-off between vocabulary size and model performance. To overcome this limitation, we propose MeanFuser, an end-to-end autonomous driving method that enhances both efficiency and robustness through three key designs. (1) We introduce Gaussian Mixture Noise (GMN) to guide generative sampling, enabling a continuous representation of the trajectory space and eliminating the dependency on discrete anchor vocabularies. (2) We adapt ``MeanFlow Identity" to end-to-end planning, which models the mean velocity field between GMN and trajectory distribution instead of the instantaneous velocity field used in vanilla flow matching methods, effectively eliminating numerical errors from ODE solvers and significantly accelerating inference. (3) We design a lightweight Adaptive Reconstruction Module (ARM) that enables the model to implicitly select from all sampled proposals or reconstruct a new trajectory when none is satisfactory via attention weights.Experiments on the NAVSIM closed-loop benchmark demonstrate that MeanFuser achieves outstanding performance without the supervision of the PDM Score and exceptional inference efficiency, offering a robust and efficient solution for end-to-end autonomous driving. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/wjl2244/MeanFuser.

KV cache quantization can improve Large Language Models (LLMs) inference throughput and latency in long contexts and large batch-size scenarios while preserving LLMs effectiveness. However, current methods have three unsolved issues: overlooking layer-wise sensitivity to KV cache quantization, high overhead of online fine-grained decision-making, and low flexibility to different LLMs and constraints. Therefore, we theoretically analyze the inherent correlation of layer-wise transformer attention patterns to KV cache quantization errors and study why key cache is generally more important than value cache for quantization error reduction. We further propose a simple yet effective framework KVTuner to adaptively search for the optimal hardware-friendly layer-wise KV quantization precision pairs for coarse-grained KV cache with multi-objective optimization and directly utilize the offline searched configurations during online inference. To reduce the computational cost of offline calibration, we utilize the intra-layer KV precision pair pruning and inter-layer clustering to reduce the search space. Experimental results show that we can achieve nearly lossless 3.25-bit mixed precision KV cache quantization for LLMs like Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and 4.0-bit for sensitive models like Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct on mathematical reasoning tasks. The maximum inference throughput can be improved by 21.25\% compared with KIVI-KV8 quantization over various context lengths. Our code and searched configurations are available at https://github.com/cmd2001/KVTuner.

Multi-agent debate (MAD) has gained significant attention as a promising line of research to improve the factual accuracy and reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Despite its conceptual appeal, current MAD research suffers from critical limitations in evaluation practices, including limited benchmark coverage, weak baseline comparisons, and inconsistent setups. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of 5 representative MAD methods across 9 benchmarks using 4 foundational models. Surprisingly, our findings reveal that MAD often fail to outperform simple single-agent baselines such as Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency, even when consuming significantly more inference-time computation. To advance MAD research, we further explore the role of model heterogeneity and find it as a universal antidote to consistently improve current MAD frameworks. Based on our findings, we argue that the field must stop overvaluing MAD in its current form; for true advancement, we must critically rethink evaluation paradigms and actively embrace model heterogeneity as a core design principle.

Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) have become the cornerstone of modern computer vision, offering robust representations across a wide array of tasks. While recent advances allow these models to handle varying input sizes during training, inference typically remains restricted to a single, fixed scale. This prevalent single-scale paradigm overlooks a fundamental property of visual perception: varying resolutions offer complementary inductive biases, where low-resolution views excel at global semantic recognition and high-resolution views are essential for fine-grained refinement. In this work, we propose Multi-Resolution Fusion (MuRF), a simple yet universally effective strategy to harness this synergy at inference time. Instead of relying on a single view, MuRF constructs a unified representation by processing an image at multiple resolutions through a frozen VFM and fusing the resulting features. The universality of MuRF is its most compelling attribute. It is not tied to a specific architecture, serving instead as a fundamental, training-free enhancement to visual representation. We empirically validate this by applying MuRF to a broad spectrum of critical computer vision tasks across multiple distinct VFM families - primarily DINOv2, but also demonstrating successful generalization to contrastive models like SigLIP2.

Incrementally fine-tuning foundational models on new tasks or domains is now the de facto approach in NLP. A known pitfall of this approach is the catastrophic forgetting of prior knowledge that happens during fine-tuning. A common approach to alleviate such forgetting is to rehearse samples from prior tasks during fine-tuning. Several existing works assume a fixed memory buffer to store prior task examples, while relying on inferences (forward passes) with the model at hand for choosing examples for rehearsal from the buffer. However, given the increasing computational cost of model inference, and decreasing cost of data storage, we focus on the setting to rehearse samples with a fixed computational budget instead of a fixed memory budget. We propose a sampling scheme, \bf mix-cd, that prioritizes rehearsal of ``collateral damage'' samples, which are samples predicted correctly by the prior model but forgotten by the incrementally tuned one. The crux of our scheme is a procedure to efficiently estimate the density of collateral damage samples without incurring additional model inferences. Our approach is computationally efficient, easy to implement, and outperforms several leading continual learning methods in compute-constrained settings. All the code will be publicly available at https://github.com/jybai/mix-cd-rehearsal.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in complex reasoning tasks through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. However, this approach often leads to ``over-thinking,'' where models generate unnecessarily long reasoning traces for simple queries and incur avoidable inference cost. While recent work has explored adaptive reasoning, existing methods typically make a single query-level decision about whether to reason. This overlooks the dynamic nature of multi-step tasks, where the need for explicit reasoning varies across intermediate stages. To address this limitation, we introduce AdaptR1, a Reinforcement Learning (RL) based framework for adaptive interleaved thinking in multi-hop Question Answering (QA). Unlike previous approaches that require Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) for cold-start initialization, AdaptR1 uses a fully RL-based strategy with a quality-gated efficiency reward to dynamically allocate reasoning budgets at each step. Under the Graph-R1 setting, AdaptR1 reduces average think tokens by 69.71\%, with a 90.35\% reduction on HotpotQA, while maintaining performance comparable to or better than standard baselines. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that overthinking in multi-hop reasoning is not uniformly distributed but occurs predominantly during the initial planning stages, highlighting the effectiveness of step-wise adaptive budget allocation.

Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in tool use, reasoning, and code generation, yet single-agent systems exhibit fundamental limitations when confronted with complex research tasks demanding multi-source synthesis, adversarial verification, and personalized delivery. We present DOVA (Deep Orchestrated Versatile Agent), a multi-agent platform introducing three key innovations: (1) deliberation-first orchestration, where explicit meta-reasoning precedes tool invocation, informed by a persistent user model and entity-aware conversation context; (2) hybrid collaborative reasoning, a composable three-phase pipeline unifying ensemble diversity, blackboard transparency, and iterative refinement; and (3) adaptive multi-tiered thinking, a six-level token-budget allocation scheme that reduces inference cost by 40-60% on simple tasks while preserving deep reasoning capacity. We formalize the core algorithms, present an architectural ablation study across seven system configurations, and analyze the contribution of each component to answer confidence, source coverage, and token efficiency.

Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in visual-language tasks. However, the authenticity of the responses generated by MLLMs is often compromised by object hallucinations. We identify that a key cause of these hallucinations is the model's over-susceptibility to specific image frequency features in detecting objects. In this paper, we introduce Multi-Frequency Perturbations (MFP), a simple, cost-effective, and pluggable method that leverages both low-frequency and high-frequency features of images to perturb visual feature representations and explicitly suppress redundant frequency-domain features during inference, thereby mitigating hallucinations. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly mitigates object hallucinations across various model architectures. Furthermore, as a training-time method, MFP can be combined with inference-time methods to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CHAIR benchmark.

We propose a lightweight end-to-end text-to-speech model using multi-band generation and inverse short-time Fourier transform. Our model is based on VITS, a high-quality end-to-end text-to-speech model, but adopts two changes for more efficient inference: 1) the most computationally expensive component is partially replaced with a simple inverse short-time Fourier transform, and 2) multi-band generation, with fixed or trainable synthesis filters, is used to generate waveforms. Unlike conventional lightweight models, which employ optimization or knowledge distillation separately to train two cascaded components, our method enjoys the full benefits of end-to-end optimization. Experimental results show that our model synthesized speech as natural as that synthesized by VITS, while achieving a real-time factor of 0.066 on an Intel Core i7 CPU, 4.1 times faster than VITS. Moreover, a smaller version of the model significantly outperformed a lightweight baseline model with respect to both naturalness and inference speed. Code and audio samples are available from https://github.com/MasayaKawamura/MB-iSTFT-VITS.

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong generalization in natural image tasks. However, their performance often degrades on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based aerial imagery, which features high resolution, complex spatial semantics, and strict real-time constraints. These challenges limit the applicability of general-purpose VLMs to structured aerial reasoning tasks. To address these challenges, we propose UAV-VL-R1, a lightweight VLM explicitly designed for aerial visual reasoning. It is trained using a hybrid method that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and multi-stage reinforcement learning (RL). We leverage the group relative policy optimization (GRPO) algorithm to promote structured and interpretable reasoning through rule-guided rewards and intra-group policy alignment. To support model training and evaluation, we introduce a high-resolution visual question answering dataset named HRVQA-VL, which consists of 50,019 annotated samples covering eight UAV-relevant reasoning tasks, including object counting, transportation recognition, and spatial scene inference. Experimental results show that UAV-VL-R1 achieves a 48.17% higher zero-shot accuracy than the Qwen2-VL-2B-Instruct baseline and even outperforms its 72B-scale variant, which is 36x larger, on multiple tasks. Ablation studies reveal that while SFT improves semantic alignment, it may reduce reasoning diversity in mathematical tasks. GRPO-based RL compensates for this limitation by enhancing logical flexibility and the robustness of inference. Additionally, UAV-VL-R1 requires only 3.9GB of memory under FP16 inference and can be quantized to 2.5GB with INT8, supporting real-time deployment on resource-constrained UAV platforms.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically prompted to follow a single instruction per inference call. In this work, we analyze whether LLMs also hold the capability to handle multiple instructions simultaneously, denoted as Multi-Task Inference. For this purpose, we introduce the MTI Bench(Multi-Task Inference Benchmark), a comprehensive evaluation benchmark encompassing 5,000 instances across 25 tasks. Each task in the MTI Bench involves 2 to 3 sub-tasks. As expected, we first demonstrate that Multi-Task Inference reduces the total inference time by 1.46 times in average since it does not require multiple inference calls. Interestingly, contrary to the expectation that LLMs would perform better when tasks are divided, we find that state-of-the-art LLMs, such as Llama-2-Chat-70B and GPT-4, show up to 7.3% and 12.4% improved performance with Multi-Task Inference compared to Single-Task Inference on the MTI Bench. We release the MTI Bench dataset and our code at this link https://github.com/guijinSON/MTI-Bench.

Scaling the amount of compute used to train language models has dramatically improved their capabilities. However, when it comes to inference, we often limit the amount of compute to only one attempt per problem. Here, we explore inference compute as another axis for scaling by increasing the number of generated samples. Across multiple tasks and models, we observe that coverage - the fraction of problems solved by any attempt - scales with the number of samples over four orders of magnitude. In domains like coding and formal proofs, where all answers can be automatically verified, these increases in coverage directly translate into improved performance. When we apply repeated sampling to SWE-bench Lite, the fraction of issues solved with DeepSeek-V2-Coder-Instruct increases from 15.9% with one sample to 56% with 250 samples, outperforming the single-attempt state-of-the-art of 43% which uses more capable frontier models. Moreover, using current API pricing, amplifying the cheaper DeepSeek model with five samples is more cost-effective and solves more issues than paying a premium for one sample from GPT-4o or Claude 3.5 Sonnet. Interestingly, the relationship between coverage and the number of samples is often log-linear and can be modelled with an exponentiated power law, suggesting the existence of inference-time scaling laws. Finally, we find that identifying correct samples out of many generations remains an important direction for future research in domains without automatic verifiers. When solving math word problems from GSM8K and MATH, coverage with Llama-3 models grows to over 95% with 10,000 samples. However, common methods to pick correct solutions from a sample collection, such as majority voting or reward models, plateau beyond several hundred samples and fail to fully scale with the sample budget.

Large-scale datasets for natural language inference are created by presenting crowd workers with a sentence (premise), and asking them to generate three new sentences (hypotheses) that it entails, contradicts, or is logically neutral with respect to. We show that, in a significant portion of such data, this protocol leaves clues that make it possible to identify the label by looking only at the hypothesis, without observing the premise. Specifically, we show that a simple text categorization model can correctly classify the hypothesis alone in about 67% of SNLI (Bowman et. al, 2015) and 53% of MultiNLI (Williams et. al, 2017). Our analysis reveals that specific linguistic phenomena such as negation and vagueness are highly correlated with certain inference classes. Our findings suggest that the success of natural language inference models to date has been overestimated, and that the task remains a hard open problem.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

We introduce a new task, Video-and-Language Inference, for joint multimodal understanding of video and text. Given a video clip with aligned subtitles as premise, paired with a natural language hypothesis based on the video content, a model needs to infer whether the hypothesis is entailed or contradicted by the given video clip. A new large-scale dataset, named Violin (VIdeO-and-Language INference), is introduced for this task, which consists of 95,322 video-hypothesis pairs from 15,887 video clips, spanning over 582 hours of video. These video clips contain rich content with diverse temporal dynamics, event shifts, and people interactions, collected from two sources: (i) popular TV shows, and (ii) movie clips from YouTube channels. In order to address our new multimodal inference task, a model is required to possess sophisticated reasoning skills, from surface-level grounding (e.g., identifying objects and characters in the video) to in-depth commonsense reasoning (e.g., inferring causal relations of events in the video). We present a detailed analysis of the dataset and an extensive evaluation over many strong baselines, providing valuable insights on the challenges of this new task.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

Finetuning a pretrained model has become a standard approach for training neural networks on novel tasks, resulting in fast convergence and improved performance. In this work, we study an alternative finetuning method, where instead of finetuning all the weights of the network, we only train a carefully chosen subset of layers, keeping the rest of the weights frozen at their initial (pretrained) values. We demonstrate that subset finetuning (or SubTuning) often achieves accuracy comparable to full finetuning of the model, and even surpasses the performance of full finetuning when training data is scarce. Therefore, SubTuning allows deploying new tasks at minimal computational cost, while enjoying the benefits of finetuning the entire model. This yields a simple and effective method for multi-task learning, where different tasks do not interfere with one another, and yet share most of the resources at inference time. We demonstrate the efficiency of SubTuning across multiple tasks, using different network architectures and pretraining methods.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Humans make numerous inferences in text comprehension to understand discourse. This paper aims to understand the commonalities and disparities in the inference judgments between humans and state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs). Leveraging a comprehensively curated entailment verification benchmark, we evaluate both human and LLM performance across various reasoning categories. Our benchmark includes datasets from three categories (NLI, contextual QA, and rationales) that include multi-sentence premises and different knowledge types, thereby evaluating the inference capabilities in complex reasoning instances. Notably, our findings reveal LLMs' superiority in multi-hop reasoning across extended contexts, while humans excel in tasks necessitating simple deductive reasoning. Leveraging these insights, we introduce a fine-tuned Flan-T5 model that outperforms GPT-3.5 and rivals with GPT-4, offering a robust open-source solution for entailment verification. As a practical application, we showcase the efficacy of our finetuned model in enhancing self-consistency in model-generated explanations, resulting in a 6% performance boost on average across three multiple-choice question-answering datasets.

We present a simple but powerful architecture of convolutional neural network, which has a VGG-like inference-time body composed of nothing but a stack of 3x3 convolution and ReLU, while the training-time model has a multi-branch topology. Such decoupling of the training-time and inference-time architecture is realized by a structural re-parameterization technique so that the model is named RepVGG. On ImageNet, RepVGG reaches over 80% top-1 accuracy, which is the first time for a plain model, to the best of our knowledge. On NVIDIA 1080Ti GPU, RepVGG models run 83% faster than ResNet-50 or 101% faster than ResNet-101 with higher accuracy and show favorable accuracy-speed trade-off compared to the state-of-the-art models like EfficientNet and RegNet. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/megvii-model/RepVGG.

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

Training of the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) can be viewed as doing one step of probabilistic inference on missing values in data. We propose a new model that extends this inference scheme to multiple steps, arguing that it is easier to learn to improve a reconstruction in k steps rather than to learn to reconstruct in a single inference step. The proposed model is an unsupervised building block for deep learning that combines the desirable properties of NADE and multi-predictive training: (1) Its test likelihood can be computed analytically, (2) it is easy to generate independent samples from it, and (3) it uses an inference engine that is a superset of variational inference for Boltzmann machines. The proposed NADE-k is competitive with the state-of-the-art in density estimation on the two datasets tested.

Visual document understanding typically requires separate retrieval and generation models, doubling memory and system complexity. We present Hydra, a dual-head approach that provides both ColBERT-style late-interaction retrieval and autoregressive generation from a single vision-language model (VLM). A single LoRA adapter, trained only for retrieval, is toggled at inference: enabling it produces multi-vector embeddings; disabling it recovers the base model's generation quality -- byte-identical outputs in 100% of 10,500 greedy and stochastic samples, with max delta-ANLS = 0.0044 across 15,301 samples on four VQA benchmarks (three informative; ChartQA is near-zero for both models under greedy decoding) when compared against an independent base-model pipeline. We identify three engineering requirements (attention-mode restoration, lm_head preservation, KV-cache-aware decoding) whose omission silently breaks generation despite correct weight recovery. On ViDoRe V1, Hydra (4B) is within 1 percentage point of a controlled single-head baseline in a single training run, with higher aggregate scores on V2 and V3 that are concentrated on a subset of tasks; multi-seed experiments are needed to confirm these trends. The single-model design reduces peak GPU memory by 41%, though adapter switching introduces throughput overhead under concurrent serving loads. An ablation shows that GritLM-style joint training provides no benefit within the LoRA-based (r=16) training regime. A proof-of-concept extension to Qwen2.5-Omni-3B demonstrates that the mechanism generalizes to audio retrieval and video embedding, with speech generation.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

The hallucination of non-existent facts by LLMs is an important problem given its widespread adoption across various applications. Previous research addresses this problem by analyzing the internal parameterized knowledge boundaries to estimate confidence. However, these studies focus on the single-problem setting and have not explored the more challenging multi-problem setting, which requires accurately answering multiple questions simultaneously. We introduce a novel method for the multi-problem setting, Multiple Answers and Confidence Stepwise Tuning (MAC-Tuning), that separates the learning of answer prediction and confidence estimation during fine-tuning on instruction data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines by up to 25\% in average precision.

Frontier reasoning models have exhibited incredible capabilities across a wide array of disciplines, driven by posttraining large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL). However, despite the widespread success of this paradigm, much of the literature has been devoted to disentangling truly novel behaviors that emerge during RL but are not present in the base models. In our work, we approach this question from a different angle, instead asking whether comparable reasoning capabilites can be elicited from base models at inference time by pure sampling, without any additional training. Inspired by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for sampling from sharpened distributions, we propose a simple iterative sampling algorithm leveraging the base models' own likelihoods. Over different base models, we show that our algorithm offers substantial boosts in reasoning that nearly match and even outperform those from RL on a wide variety of single-shot tasks, including MATH500, HumanEval, and GPQA. Moreover, our sampler avoids the collapse in diversity over multiple samples that is characteristic of RL-posttraining. Crucially, our method does not require training, curated datasets, or a verifier, suggesting broad applicability beyond easily verifiable domains.

Recent soft prompt research has tried to improve reasoning by inserting trained vectors into LLM inputs, yet whether the gain comes from the learned content or from the act of injection itself has not been carefully separated. We study Random Soft Prompts (RSPs), which drop the training step entirely and append a freshly drawn sequence of random embedding vectors to the input. Each RSP vector is sampled from an isotropic Gaussian fitted to the entrywise mean and variance of the pretrained embedding table; the sequence carries no learned content, and yet reaches accuracy comparable to optimized soft prompts on math reasoning benchmarks in several settings. The mechanism unfolds in two stages: because attention has to absorb a never-seen-before random position, the distribution over the first few generated tokens flattens and reasoning trajectories branch, and as generation continues this influence dilutes naturally so the response commits to a single completion. We show that during inference RSPs lift early-stage token diversity and, combined with temperature sampling, widen Pass@N, the probability that at least one out of N attempts is correct. Beyond inference, we carry the same effect into DAPO training and demonstrate practical gains. Our contributions are: (i) RSP isolates the simplest form of soft prompt -- training-free, freshly resampled -- providing a unified lens for the structural effect of injection that variants otherwise differing in training and form all share; (ii) a theoretical and empirical validation of the underlying mechanism; and (iii) an extension from inference to training.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

We are born with the ability to learn concepts by comparing diverse observations. This helps us to understand the new world in a compositional manner and facilitates extrapolation, as objects naturally consist of multiple concepts. In this work, we argue that the cognitive mechanism of comparison, fundamental to human learning, is also vital for machines to recover true concepts underlying the data. This offers correctness guarantees for the field of concept learning, which, despite its impressive empirical successes, still lacks general theoretical support. Specifically, we aim to develop a theoretical framework for the identifiability of concepts with multiple classes of observations. We show that with sufficient diversity across classes, hidden concepts can be identified without assuming specific concept types, functional relations, or parametric generative models. Interestingly, even when conditions are not globally satisfied, we can still provide alternative guarantees for as many concepts as possible based on local comparisons, thereby extending the applicability of our theory to more flexible scenarios. Moreover, the hidden structure between classes and concepts can also be identified nonparametrically. We validate our theoretical results in both synthetic and real-world settings.

Inference tasks such as answer sentence selection (AS2) or fact verification are typically solved by fine-tuning transformer-based models as individual sentence-pair classifiers. Recent studies show that these tasks benefit from modeling dependencies across multiple candidate sentences jointly. In this paper, we first show that popular pre-trained transformers perform poorly when used for fine-tuning on multi-candidate inference tasks. We then propose a new pre-training objective that models the paragraph-level semantics across multiple input sentences. Our evaluation on three AS2 and one fact verification datasets demonstrates the superiority of our pre-training technique over the traditional ones for transformers used as joint models for multi-candidate inference tasks, as well as when used as cross-encoders for sentence-pair formulations of these tasks. Our code and pre-trained models are released at https://github.com/amazon-research/wqa-multi-sentence-inference .

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing the reasoning performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing approaches often rely on heuristic strategies for parallel sampling, lacking a principled foundation. To address this gap, we propose a probabilistic framework that formalizes the optimality of inference-time scaling under the assumption that parallel samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and where the Best-of-N selection strategy follows a probability distribution that can be estimated. Within this framework, we derive a theoretical lower bound on the required number of samples to achieve a target performance level, providing the first principled guidance for compute-efficient scaling. Leveraging this insight, we develop OptScale, a practical algorithm that dynamically determines the optimal number of sampled responses. OptScale employs a language model-based predictor to estimate probabilistic prior parameters, enabling the decision of the minimal number of samples needed that satisfy predefined performance thresholds and confidence levels. Extensive experiments on representative reasoning benchmarks (including MATH-500, GSM8K, AIME, and AMC) demonstrate that OptScale significantly reduces sampling overhead while remaining better or on par with state-of-the-art reasoning performance. Our work offers both a theoretical foundation and a practical solution for principled inference-time scaling, addressing a critical gap in the efficient deployment of LLMs for complex reasoning.

Large Reasoning Models have demonstrated remarkable performance with the advancement of test-time scaling techniques, which enhances prediction accuracy by generating multiple candidate responses and selecting the most reliable answer. While prior work has analyzed that internal model signals like confidence scores can partly indicate response correctness and exhibit a distributional correlation with accuracy, such distributional information has not been fully utilized to guide answer selection. Motivated by this, we propose DistriVoting, which incorporates distributional priors as another signal alongside confidence during voting. Specifically, our method (1) first decomposes the mixed confidence distribution into positive and negative components using Gaussian Mixture Models, (2) then applies a reject filter based on positive/negative samples from them to mitigate overlap between the two distributions. Besides, to further alleviate the overlap from the perspective of distribution itself, we propose SelfStepConf, which uses step-level confidence to dynamically adjust inference process, increasing the separation between the two distributions to improve the reliability of confidences in voting. Experiments across 16 models and 5 benchmarks demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

In this work, we aim to capitalize on the unique few-shot capabilities of large-scale language models (LSLMs) to overcome some of their challenges with respect to grounding to factual and up-to-date information. Motivated by semi-parametric language models (LMs), which ground their decisions in external retrieved evidence, we use few-shot prompting to learn to condition LMs on information returned from the web using Google Search, a broad and constantly updated knowledge source. Our approach does not involve fine-tuning or learning additional parameters, thus making it applicable to any LM, offering therefore a strong baseline. Indeed, we find that LMs conditioned on the web surpass performance of closed-book models of similar, or even larger, model sizes in open-domain question answering. Finally, we find that increasing the inference-time compute of models, achieved via using multiple retrieved evidences to generate multiple answers followed by a reranking stage that uses scores generated by the same LMs, leads to better performance and alleviates lower performance of smaller few-shot LMs. All in all, our findings suggest that it might be beneficial to slow down the race towards the biggest model and instead shift attention towards finding more effective ways to use models, including but not limited to, better prompting or increasing inference-time compute.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

Performing inference on hundreds of thousands of samples with large language models (LLMs) can be computationally and financially costly. We propose batch prompting, a simple alternative prompting approach that enables the LLM to run inference in batches, instead of one sample at a time. Our method reduces both token and time costs while retaining downstream performance. We theoretically demonstrate that under a few-shot in-context learning setting, the inference costs decrease almost inverse linearly with the number of samples in each batch. We extensively validate the effectiveness of batch prompting on ten datasets across commonsense QA, arithmetic reasoning, and NLI/NLU: batch prompting significantly~(up to 5times with six samples in batch) reduces the LLM (Codex) inference token and time costs while achieving better or comparable performance. Our analysis shows that the number of samples in each batch and the complexity of tasks affect its performance. Further, batch prompting can be applied across different LLMs and reasoning methods.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Inference-time scaling techniques have significantly bolstered the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) by harnessing additional computational effort at inference without retraining. Similarly, Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting and its extension, Long CoT, improve accuracy by generating rich intermediate reasoning trajectories, but these approaches incur substantial token costs that impede their deployment in latency-sensitive settings. In this work, we first show that truncated CoT, which stops reasoning before completion and directly generates the final answer, often matches full CoT sampling while using dramatically fewer tokens. Building on this insight, we introduce Fractured Sampling, a unified inference-time strategy that interpolates between full CoT and solution-only sampling along three orthogonal axes: (1) the number of reasoning trajectories, (2) the number of final solutions per trajectory, and (3) the depth at which reasoning traces are truncated. Through extensive experiments on five diverse reasoning benchmarks and several model scales, we demonstrate that Fractured Sampling consistently achieves superior accuracy-cost trade-offs, yielding steep log-linear scaling gains in Pass@k versus token budget. Our analysis reveals how to allocate computation across these dimensions to maximize performance, paving the way for more efficient and scalable LLM reasoning.

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

Recent video multimodal large language models (MLLMs) increasingly couple step-by-step reasoning with on-demand visual evidence retrieval, allowing models to revisit relevant video segments during inference. However, two structural gaps remain in existing thinking-with-video systems. (i) Sampling density is not a learnable decision: existing methods may let the model decide where to look, but the per-window frame rate is largely fixed. As a result, fine-grained evidence is often recovered through repeated retrieval calls, which increases inference context length and training difficulty. (ii) Retrieval and answer generation are usually optimized with a single trajectory-level advantage, so the "where to look" tokens and the "how to answer" tokens receive the same credit even when one is correct and the other is not. To address these gaps, we present DynFrame, a framework that emits the temporal window and the sampling density as native tokens within a single autoregressive pass. This learnable span-density retrieval enables acquiring multi-granularity evidence with a single retrieval step. Based on the above tokenized retrieval interface, we further introduce Segment-Decoupled GRPO (SD-GRPO), which splits each rollout at the retrieval boundary and assigns role-specific token-level advantages, separately crediting the sampling decision and the answer. Trained on the curated DM-CoT-74k and DM-RL-45k, DynFrame-4B is competitive with strong 7B-8B baselines across six benchmarks (NExT-GQA, Charades-STA, ActivityNet-MR, Video-MME, MLVU, LVBench), and DynFrame-8B sets new state-of-the-art on most metrics. Code is available at https://github.com/zhangguanghao523/DynFrame.

Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It involves generating multiple responses, or samples from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent answer. This procedure can naturally be viewed as a majority vote or empirical mode estimation. Despite its effectiveness, SC is prohibitively expensive at scale when naively applied to datasets, and it lacks a unified theoretical treatment of sample efficiency and scaling behavior. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of SC's scaling behavior and its variants, drawing on mode estimation and voting theory. We derive and empirically validate power law scaling for self-consistency across datasets, and analyze the sample efficiency for fixed-allocation and dynamic-allocation sampling schemes. From these insights, we introduce Blend-ASC, a novel variant of self-consistency that dynamically allocates samples to questions during inference, achieving state-of-the-art sample efficiency. Our approach uses 6.8x fewer samples than vanilla SC on average, outperforming both fixed- and dynamic-allocation SC baselines, thereby demonstrating the superiority of our approach in terms of efficiency. In contrast to existing variants, Blend-ASC is hyperparameter-free and can fit an arbitrary sample budget, ensuring it can be easily applied to any self-consistency application.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

Human reasoning often involves working over limited information to arrive at probabilistic conclusions. In its simplest form, this involves making an inference that is not strictly entailed by a premise, but rather only likely given the premise. While reasoning LLMs have demonstrated strong performance on logical and mathematical tasks, their behavior on such open-ended, non-deterministic inferences remains largely unexplored. We introduce ProbCOPA, a dataset of 210 handcrafted probabilistic inferences in English, each annotated for inference likelihood by 25--30 human participants. We find that human responses are graded and varied, revealing probabilistic judgments of the inferences in our dataset. Comparing these judgments with responses from eight state-of-the-art reasoning LLMs, we show that models consistently fail to produce human-like distributions. Finally, analyzing LLM reasoning chains, we find evidence of a common reasoning pattern used to evaluate such inferences. Our findings reveal persistent differences between humans and LLMs, and underscore the need to evaluate reasoning beyond deterministic settings.

Multi-hop reasoning (i.e., reasoning across two or more documents) is a key ingredient for NLP models that leverage large corpora to exhibit broad knowledge. To retrieve evidence passages, multi-hop models must contend with a fast-growing search space across the hops, represent complex queries that combine multiple information needs, and resolve ambiguity about the best order in which to hop between training passages. We tackle these problems via Baleen, a system that improves the accuracy of multi-hop retrieval while learning robustly from weak training signals in the many-hop setting. To tame the search space, we propose condensed retrieval, a pipeline that summarizes the retrieved passages after each hop into a single compact context. To model complex queries, we introduce a focused late interaction retriever that allows different parts of the same query representation to match disparate relevant passages. Lastly, to infer the hopping dependencies among unordered training passages, we devise latent hop ordering, a weak-supervision strategy in which the trained retriever itself selects the sequence of hops. We evaluate Baleen on retrieval for two-hop question answering and many-hop claim verification, establishing state-of-the-art performance.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

This paper describes the results of SemEval 2023 task 7 -- Multi-Evidence Natural Language Inference for Clinical Trial Data (NLI4CT) -- consisting of 2 tasks, a Natural Language Inference (NLI) task, and an evidence selection task on clinical trial data. The proposed challenges require multi-hop biomedical and numerical reasoning, which are of significant importance to the development of systems capable of large-scale interpretation and retrieval of medical evidence, to provide personalized evidence-based care. Task 1, the entailment task, received 643 submissions from 40 participants, and Task 2, the evidence selection task, received 364 submissions from 23 participants. The tasks are challenging, with the majority of submitted systems failing to significantly outperform the majority class baseline on the entailment task, and we observe significantly better performance on the evidence selection task than on the entailment task. Increasing the number of model parameters leads to a direct increase in performance, far more significant than the effect of biomedical pre-training. Future works could explore the limitations of large models for generalization and numerical inference, and investigate methods to augment clinical datasets to allow for more rigorous testing and to facilitate fine-tuning. We envisage that the dataset, models, and results of this task will be useful to the biomedical NLI and evidence retrieval communities. The dataset, competition leaderboard, and website are publicly available.

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the uncertainty of model outputs has received relatively little attention. We adapt the popular Shapley value framework to explain various types of predictive uncertainty, quantifying each feature's contribution to the conditional entropy of individual model outputs. We consider games with modified characteristic functions and find deep connections between the resulting Shapley values and fundamental quantities from information theory and conditional independence testing. We outline inference procedures for finite sample error rate control with provable guarantees, and implement efficient algorithms that perform well in a range of experiments on real and simulated data. Our method has applications to covariate shift detection, active learning, feature selection, and active feature-value acquisition.

Inference-time scaling via repeated sampling has shown promise in reasoning tasks, but its effectiveness in multilingual generation remains underexplored. We evaluate this approach using perplexity- and reward-based verifiers on two multilingual benchmarks: the Aya Evaluation Suite and m-ArenaHard. Our results show consistent quality improvements, with gains exceeding 35% in some cases. While perplexity-based scoring is effective for open-ended prompts, only reward-based verifiers improve performance on tasks requiring reasoning (e.g., math, code). Our results demonstrate the broader utility of repeated sampling for multilingual text generation and underscore the importance of selecting right verifiers for the task.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

While Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) internalize a great amount of world knowledge, they have been shown incapable of recalling these knowledge to solve tasks requiring complex & multi-step reasoning. Similar to how humans develop a "chain of thought" for these tasks, how can we equip PLMs with such abilities? In this work, we explore an iterative prompting framework, a new prompting paradigm which progressively elicits relevant knowledge from PLMs for multi-step inference. We identify key limitations of existing prompting methods, namely they are either restricted to queries with a single identifiable relation/predicate, or being agnostic to input contexts, which makes it difficult to capture variabilities across different inference steps. We propose an iterative context-aware prompter, which addresses these limitations by learning to dynamically synthesize prompts conditioned on the current step's contexts. Experiments on three datasets involving multi-step reasoning show the effectiveness of the iterative scheme and the context-aware prompter design.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited an impressive capability to perform reasoning tasks, especially if they are encouraged to generate a sequence of intermediate steps. Reasoning performance can be improved by suitably combining multiple LLM responses, generated either in parallel in a single query, or via sequential interactions with LLMs throughout the reasoning process. Existing strategies for combination, such as self-consistency and progressive-hint-prompting, make inefficient usage of the LLM responses. We present Hint Marginalization, a novel and principled algorithmic framework to enhance the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Our approach can be viewed as an iterative sampling strategy for forming a Monte Carlo approximation of an underlying distribution of answers, with the goal of identifying the mode the most likely answer. Empirical evaluation on several benchmark datasets for arithmetic reasoning demonstrates the superiority of the proposed approach.

We introduce \`A-la-carte Prompt Tuning (APT), a transformer-based scheme to tune prompts on distinct data so that they can be arbitrarily composed at inference time. The individual prompts can be trained in isolation, possibly on different devices, at different times, and on different distributions or domains. Furthermore each prompt only contains information about the subset of data it was exposed to during training. During inference, models can be assembled based on arbitrary selections of data sources, which we call "\`a-la-carte learning". \`A-la-carte learning enables constructing bespoke models specific to each user's individual access rights and preferences. We can add or remove information from the model by simply adding or removing the corresponding prompts without retraining from scratch. We demonstrate that \`a-la-carte built models achieve accuracy within 5% of models trained on the union of the respective sources, with comparable cost in terms of training and inference time. For the continual learning benchmarks Split CIFAR-100 and CORe50, we achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.